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Cleveland Indians

9/18 DFS Pitching Picks: Good Time at the Cole K Corral

5 years ago

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The highlight of the 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks could be dimmed by a nasty, blustery lady named Imelda.

The Tropical Depression Formerly Known as Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to hammer the Houston area with high winds and up to 12 inches of rain between now and Thursday. While it’s highly unlikely the weather will be a factor in Gerrit Cole’s bid for 300 strikeouts, let’s not leave everything to chance.

Cole is the best play of Wednesday’s main slate. There are five games scheduled for the afternoon, where Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard are each pitching. The daytime even features Marlins hurler Sandy Alcantara, who’s made for a great GPP option over his past five starts.

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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Cash Game Pitcher

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TEX

DK ($12,800), FD ($12,100)

Cole has six straight games of at least 10 strikeouts, so it’s not a question of if, but how long into the night before Cole reaches 300 Ks, making him only the third pitcher in franchise history to do so. He’s delivered at least 30 DraftKings points in each of his last six starts; FanDuel users have seen Cole record at least 30 points in 14 straight outings.

Currently sitting at a 39.4% strikeout rate, Cole will have at least two more starts to get as close as possible to 40%. He’s fanned 20 Royals over 14.1 innings this season, including 11 in last Friday’s win. Over the past month, Cole has struck out a staggering 55.6% of the batters he’s faced, with his slider one of the driving forces behind the run. It’s been an increase of using his slider that has helped explode his strikeout rate to heights we didn’t think we’d see after Cole struck out over 36% in 2018.

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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – GPP Pitchers

Jake Odorizzi, MIN vs. CWS

DK ($10,600), FD ($9,300)

The Ks have come aplenty for Odorizzi when facing the White Sox, having fanned 23 over 16.1 innings. He’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks play in GPP formats, especially when you consider he’s yet to allow a homer to Pale Hose bats this season.

Odorizzi has an 0.98 HR/9 rate despite allowing a hard contact rate of 42.3% and a 44.3% fly ball rate. How the hell he’s pulled such a low HR/9 in this of all seasons is beyond me. The reduction in BB/9 from 3.83 from last season to 3.12 this year has helped carry him to two starts of at least 40 FanDuel points in his last three starts.

Aaron Civale, CLE vs. DET

DK ($9,100), FD ($8,500)

Civale has yet to allow more than two earned runs and gets a gem of a start against a Tigers team that is averaging less than four runs per game over the past week. Detroit is hitting a composite .234/.285/.363 versus average fly ball/ground ball pitchers like Civale, who has allowed just two homers in 46.2 innings of work.

I like Civale in FanDuel, as he has put up at least 30 points in five of his eight starts. You’ll also like him more considering he’s delivered a 1.06 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 17 innings when pitching at Progressive Field. At this late in the season, chances are good Civale should be able to keep his BABIP around his current .267. With a thin main slate, Civale’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks option.

Adrian Houser, MIL vs. SD

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,500)

Bah Gawd! Houser is cheap. He also falls into a wonderful matchup against a Padres offense that has hit a combined .205/.330/.373 in their past seven games. San Diego’s batters are averaging nearly 11 strikeouts in the same span, which plays well with Houser’s 9.52 K/9 rate. You can live with Houser’s 1.19 HR/9 even against the all-or-nothing Padres bats that have produced a .373 slugging percentage and .652 OPS over the past two weeks.

If he’s not whiffing batters, Houser’s 53.4% ground ball rate will keep his infielders busy. He has a pretty low 24.8% fly ball rate and does also project to flirt with 30 points at FanDuel. I’d run with Houser and load up on offense.

9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Punt Pick

Tony Gonsolin, LAD vs. TB

DK ($8,700), FD ($6,600)

Gonsolin holds a .219 BABIP and continues to be a reasonable choice in GPP or Punt plays. That trend should maintain itself despite a 47% hard contact rate against and a 43.9% fly ball rate. Those trends will sooner or later walk him down.

Don’t expect the Rays to get too many line drives off of him, as Gonsolin allows just a 13.3% line drive rate. He’s obviously a better pitcher at home (.120 batting average allowed, 1.20 ERA), so while he’s not going to go too deep in games, Gonsolin should do just enough to make him a worthy punt.

5 years ago 0 comments

9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks and Picks: It’s Easy to Be Brave

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today we’ll be examining a fine 12-game Tuesday 9/3 DFS MLB slate (one without a super-obvious Coors Field game), looking to embrace the variance, find some compelling stacks to focus on in our lineup builds, and list some viable hitters in GPPs – as well as some additional plays that might be worth a punt or contrarian pivot.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

AtlantaBraves vs. Wilmer Font/T.J. Zeuch

The Braves have the highest implied total (6 runs) on the 12-game 7:05 slate, with the Dodgers close behind. Both Font and Zeuch (the proposed primary reliever who’ll be making his MLB debut) are RHPs — so it’s safe to stack the 1-5 hitters as there are no weak links in the bunch. Don’t overthink this one – the Braves have punished RHPs, are a better offense at home this season, and have plenty of value bats if you’re building a non-traditional stack.

LosAngeles Dodgers vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez

The Dodgers have six hitters in their projected lineup with ISOmarks north of .200 against RHP, including some of the best xwOBA marks on the slate(Will Smith at .487 and Cody Bellinger at .446). Feel free to attack Chi Chi’sterrible splits against lefties regardless of the barely beneficial shift awayfrom Coors. Joc Pederson (who you will have to double check on because he leftMonday’s game after a leaping catch at the wall), Corey Seager, Bellinger, A.J.Pollock and Matt Beaty should be the core of this group.

ClevelandIndians vs. Dylan Cease

It’s been a few days, but the Indians bats came alive last night and knocked around Ross Detwiler, and the matchup against Dylan Cease shouldn’t offer too much resistance. Cease is vulnerable to both RHBs and lefties, so it doesn’t really matter which side of the plate your stacked players hit from – just make sure you’re building around a core of Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado and Carlos Santana. You have myriad options for additional power bats in the heart of the lineup and a bit further down (Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Jakob Bauers), so it might be worth it to build some variety if you’re multi-entering in GPPs.

9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Minnesota Twins at Rick Porcello

Boston Red Sox vs. Randy Dobnak

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Matthew Strahm

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Dereck Rodriguez

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Sandy Alcantara

9/3 DFS Hitting Catcher

JasonCastro, MIN at BOS

DK ($3,700) FD($2,400)

We’re looking for some value at catcher given some of the prices of these bigger bats in the stacks we need to fit, and Castro is exactly the type of hitter we’re looking for – a sneaky option with ample power and plenty of bats surrounding him. If the Twins roll out Castro against Porcello, I’d be comfortable with the BvP data (5-for-13 with a HR) and overall against RHP (.476 xwOBA).

9/3 DFS Hitting First Baseman

JoshBell, PIT vs. MIA

DK ($5,100) FD($4,400)

You’re going to get Josh Bell at a very low ownership, and while the $5,100 price seems oppressive, the Pirates still sport a decent implied total and Bell (.426 xwOBA vs. RHP) might fly under the radar in this slate. The Pirates aren’t the safest stack, but Bell stands out as an excellent one-off, especially if you’re steering clear of Freddie Freeman and looking for a more contrarian play.

9/3 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

KoltenWong, STL vs. SF

DK($4,300) FD ($3,100)

Wong is red-hot at the plate, with a seven-game hitting streak and a triple in three straight games (the record is five, by Chief Wilson in 1912). A streaky hitter who’s having an excellent second half (.381/.462/.545 in 42 games since the break), Wong’s got an affordable price tag and could be banging out some more extra base hits from that 2-slot against the Giants.

9/3 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

RafaelDevers, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,400) FD($4,100)

Devers and the Red Sox are a formidable stack against just about anyopposing pitcher, but this is an especially tasty matchup with rookie Randy Dobnakon the mound for the Twins. Since Anthony Rendon and Alex Bregman aren’t in idealspots Tuesday, I’m rolling with Devers and his obscene metrics vs. RHP (.429xwOBA, .247 ISO). He’s never far from a run-producing spot and he’s got all theprotection he needs surrounded by the Boston sluggers.

9/3 DFS Hitting Shortstop

AdalbertoMondesi, KC vs. DET

DK ($5,200) FD($3,100)

Mondesiobviously missed being a part of the Royals lineup, because he went 4-for-5with two runs scored and three SB in the Royals’ 6-4 comeback win against theOrioles on Sunday. He’s facing a LHP in Daniel Norris on Tuesday and he’sclearly recovered from his shoulder injury – and while the price on DK issteep, he’s very affordable on FD.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Outfielders

MattJoyce, ATL vs. TOR

DK ($3,900) FD($2,400)

Joyceis a classic value GPP play because of his power potential and assault on RHP(.392 xwOBA). It’s also helpful that both the projected starter and primaryreliever are right handers – which could give him an extra AB or two before he mustface a lefty out of the bullpen or get pulled for a pinch hitter or defensivereplacement. In a search for some bargains to offset the rest of the Bravesstack, Joyce could be a key cog.

MaxKepler, MIN at BOS

DK ($5,300) FD($3,500)

MaxKepler is batting leadoff for one of the top stacks of the day, so he’s definitelya fly ball hitter to build around despite his steep price tag on DraftKings. He’scoming off a 2-for-5 day in a win over Detroit and is slashing .258/.339/.537with 36 home runs and 90 RBI over 127 games in 2019. He’s an excellent roadhitter (.266/.357/.548) and he’s a real bargain on FanDuel at just $3,500.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC vs. SEA

DK ($4,300) FD($3,100)

It’s always a weather-dependent recommendation to use or fade batsin Wrigley, so make sure there’s not a stiff breeze blowing in before youcommit to Schwarber here. The enigmatic Schwarber does his best work at homevs. RHP (125 wRC+ in 2019, .250/.355/.545 slash), and while he’s not the besthitter in high leverage spots (65 wRC+), that’s a figure that’s bound toimprove. King Felix is not the pitcher he once was, and it’s a fine spot forlefty mashers against him.

Additional 9/3 DFS hitting options (by position):

C: Carson Kelly, Chris Herrmann (value)

1B: Anthony Rizzo, Matt Olson

2B: Brock Holt (value), Eduardo Escobar

3B: Matt Carpenter, Abraham Toro

SS: Corey Seager, Nick Ahmed

OF: Matt Beaty, Dexter Fowler, Nick Castellanos, Adam Jones. Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

GPP MLB Stacks: Winning Edge for August 31

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s nine-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our Premium Gold DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

GPP MLB Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. RHP Tim Melville (COL): 7.50 Runs

I’m just going to start off my saying I’m really not impressed with what either team has to offer in Coors field tonight. Tim Melville has two starts this season so it’s hard to overlook his performance in the past even though he holds 0.75 ERA at the moment. His pitch movements and velocity look right on par with league averages and he utilizes a lot of slider (56%), a breaking pitch that helped Agrazal limit damage to three earned runs last night. If you did not read my article yesterday I talked about some of the more effective pitches in Coors and breaking pitches statistically are. Not a full fade here and once again I’m not looking at Melville as a viable pitching option, but I think he can limit damage here if he can keep up with that high GB rate through two starts. The Pirates are slashing .325 wOBA, .170 ISO, and 100 WRC+ for the month of August.

Preferred Plays: Josh Bell ($4400 FD|$5700 DK), Starling Marte ($4300 FD|$5800 DK), Bryan Reynolds ($3900 FD|$5600 DK), and Jose Osuna ($3300 FD|$5400 DK).

GPP MLB Stack: Colorado Rockies

vs. RHP Joe Musgrove (PIT): 6.50 Runs

Same applies as I talked about with the Pirates. Musgrove is not very good but neither is Colorado with their .160 ISO and 78 WRC+. I will have a share or two of Coors just to cover me but I’m just not sold.

Preferred Stack: Charlie Blackmon ($4500 FD|$5700 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4600 FD|$5400 DK), Trevor Story ($4100 FD|$5600 DK), and Sam Hilliard ($3100 FD|$4100 DK).

GPP MLB Stack: Atlanta Braves

vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez (CWS): 5.75 Runs

There are a few games I like today but this is probably my favorite. The Braves face Lopez who is hot and cold at times, but overall has had an “ok” year. Lopez doesn’t have a lot of variation to his pitches, he throws a ton of four seam fast ball and the Braves have seven players in their line slugging .500 or better to the four seamer. Atlanta has let us down on a few occasions but I’m willing to overlook that today. The Braves are slashing to a .328 wOBA, .189 ISO, and 101 WRC+ in the month of August.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

GPP MLB Stack: Baltimore Orioles

vs. RHP Jorge Lopez (KCR): 5.00 Runs

Preferred Plays: Renato Nunez ($3300 FD|$4400 DK), Trey Mancini ($3600 FD|$4500 DK), Jonathan Villar ($3500 FD|$5100 DK), and Anthony Santander ($3000 FD|$4300 DK). Hanser Alberto ($2900 FD|$4000 DK) offers some salary relief as well.

GPP MLB Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. RHP Pablo Lopez (MIA): 5.75 Runs

Preferred Plays: Juan Soto ($4000 FD|$5300 DK), Anthony Rendon ($4400 FD|$5300 DK), Adam Eaton ($3600 FD|$4600 DK), and Matt Adams ($2800 FD|$4300 DK).

GPP MLB Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. LHP Dillon Peters (LAA): UPDATE

Pitching

Stephen Strasburg RHP (WSH): 2.75 Runs
Dylan Bundy RHP (BAL): 4.00 Runs
Brock Burke LHP (TEX): UPDATE

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB Team Stacks: Winning Edge for August 30

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 14-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB Team Stack: Colorado Rockies

vs. RHP Dario Agrazal (PIT): 7.65 Runs

The Rockies will definitely be popular tonight as they usually are at home, especially with with some intriguing low to mid range pitching options on the slate. I always look for a reason to not ride the Coors chalk, but I will never advocate a full fade. After a relatively good start, Agrazal has found a bit of a struggle and has surrendered three or more runs in his last five games. Agrazal is throwing a ton of sinker at 56% and I believe this bodes well for him in this matchup. Breaking pitches have been found to be some of the more effective pitches in Coors and Agrazal is only throwing his fastball at an 11% clip. I would not want to play him just due to poor strike out upside but I can see Agrazal finding some success here due to his pitching arsenal.

Preferred Plays: Charlie Blackmon ($4700 FD|$5700 DK), Trevor Story ($4300 FD|$5600 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4700 FD|$5700 DK), and Sam Hilliard ($2900 FD|$4000 DK).

MLB Team Stack: Houston Astros

vs. RHP Trent Thornton (TOR): 6.25 Runs

We have a pretty good chance at getting Houston at low ownership and in a great spot. Trent Thornton has been underwhelming for the month of August, allowing hitters to slash to a .364 wOBA, .535 SLG, and .348 OBP. This Houston offense is not quite as explosive as they were a month ago, but they are still producing extra base hits as indicated by their 138 WRC+. Overall power is down to righties over the last two weeks (202 ISO) but this offense is potent and can go off on sub par pitching any given night.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB Team Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. RHP Edwin Jackson (DET):UPDATE

This is another game that should be considered as an alternative to Coors if you’re looking to get away. I’m assuming a pretty high implied run total here with the matchup against Jackson and the 25th ranked Tigers bullpen. The Twins WRC+ of 107 is a little lower than I’d like to see from them right now but they are still slashing .210 ISO and .478 SLG for the month of August. The power is there to get the job done tonight and as we all know Jackson struggles a ton with the long ball, surrendering 3.08 HR/9 this season. Jackson gave up six earned runs in his most recent start against the Twins.

MLB Team Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. RHP Elieser Hernandez (MIA): 6.00 Runs

**Moderate Risk

MLB Team Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. RHP Antonio Senzatela (PIT): 6.85 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Pitching

Kyle Gibson RHP (MIN): UPDATE
Shane Bieber RHP (CLE): UPDATE
Anibal Sanchez RHP (WSH): 3.50 Runs

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MLB

GPP Stacks: MLB Winning Edge for August 25

5 years ago

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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 11-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

Teams with Highest IRT

GPP Stack: Houston Astros

vs.RHP Jamie Barria (LAA): 6.25 Runs

**Low Risk

GPP Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. LHP Eric Skoglund (KCR): 6.20 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Jose Ramirez is out on injury and I’m not particularly crazy about this team without him.

Preferred Stack: Carlos Santana ($4000 FD|$5400 DK), Francisco Lindor ($4300 FD|$5200 DK), Franmil Reyes ($2500 FD|$3800 DK), and Yasiel Puig ($3300 FD|4400 DK).

Other Teams I Have Interest in

GPP Stack: Atlanta Braves**

vs. LHP Steven Matz (NYM): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

The Braves are six games up on the Nationals for the top seed and they’re going to need to keep their foot on the gas here. Matz is allowing a measley slash line of .260 wOBA, .353 SLG, and .268 OBP in the second half of the season. He has performed well in his last 10 starts but he has to come back down to earth at some point. The Braves are certainly risky here but there are a few guy’s in the lineup who hit lefties well and we will likely get pretty low ownership here with everyone chasing that watered down Cleveland squad.

GPP Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. LHP Matt Boyd (DET): UPDATE

**Moderate Risk

Man, this is a tough one. On one side you have one of the best hitting teams in baseball slashing a ridiculous .345 ISO and 193 WRC+ to lefties over the last two weeks. On the other side you have Matthew Boyd who has had his ups and downs but he has been solid on the road, only allowing righties to slash .276 wOBA, .372 SLG, and .276 OBP. My thought is that Boyd is going to get rocked. You can make an argument to throw Boyd out there in GPP’s but this Twins lineup is just hitting way too good right now and Boyd’s inconsistencies like to rear their ugly head every other game.

GPP Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

vs. RHP Anthonio Senzatela (COL): 5.10 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Marcell Ozuna ($3700 FD|$5000 DK), Paul Goldschmidt ($3500 FD|$4200 DK), and Dexter Fowler ($3200 FD|$4000 DK). Matt Carpenter ($2700 FD|$3700 DK) If you’re looking for four man stack I like him for the platoon advantage.

GPP Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. LHP Cole Hamels (CHC): 5.10 Runs

GPP Stack: Colorado Rockies**

vs. RHP Michael Wacha (STL): 5.10 Runs

**Low Risk

Michael Wacha is just a terrible pitcher and even though the Rockies aren’t a great hitting team on the road I still like the matchup here and I will ignore road slash lines for Colorado. This team and Atlanta are my sneaky picks for the day.

Preferred Plays: Charlie Blackmon ($2600 FD|$5300 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), Trevor Story ($3800 FD|$5300 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3200 FD|$4400 DK).

Pitching

Shane Bieber RHP (CLE): 2.50 Runs
Aaron Nola RHP (PHI): 3.25 Runs
Dylan Bundy RHP (BAL): 5.40 Runs
Brock Burke RHP (TEX): 4.80 Runs

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MLB

8/24 DFS Hitting and Stacks

5 years ago

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With the Giants and A’s playing tonight, Saturday offers a full 15-game slate with just three games scheduled before 7:00pm Eastern. The 8/24 DFS Hitting and Stacks is the calm before the storm that begins next Saturday when college football bogarts its way into the sports schedule.

We’ve got you covered with college football, so keep your attention to the diamond while looking to make some long green as August makes the slow turn to September.

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8/24 DFS Hitting Catcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. ATL

DK ($3,900), FD ($2,400)

Ramos extended his hitting streak to 17 games on Friday, continuing an August that has seen his OPS approach the gilded 1.000 mark. He’s helped his cause with a career-best 9% walk rate that has offset the dip in Isolated Power (.133) and BABIP (.294). He will get a very favorable matchup in Braves starter Max Fried, as Ramos wears out lefties with a .341/.424/.541 (.965 OPS) with five homers. That he’s managing this stretch of consistent hitting feels odd considering he’s hitting grounders at a 60.1% rate and manages a modest 31.6% hard contact rate.

Sometimes, the numbers can trick the hell out of us; in Ramos’ case, you take them for what they are and get the solid results.

8/24 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Carlos Santana, CLE vs. KC

DK ($5,400), FD ($3,700)

Why not roll with Santana again? He reached base three times in Friday’s win over the Royals to continue an August in which he has nearly as many walks (18) as he does hits (25). Santana has a .473 OBP this month but has reached base at a .627 clip against Kansas City pitching this season with three homers and 10 runs scored. Royals starter Glenn Sparkman makes for another easy mark for Santana, as he comes into the game allowing 1.89 HR/9 and a 23.6% line drive rate.

Sparkman has given up nine walks in 21 innings this month and has been treated like chum by Indians batters, who have hit eight homers against him in just 16.1 innings pitched this season.

8/24 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Howie Kendrick, WAS at CHC

DK ($8,000), FD ($2,600)

If he’s in the lineup, I’m playing him. Kendrick has three multi-hit games in his last four starts, including a pair in Friday’s win at Wrigley. Kendrick is .462/.533/1.154 over the past two weeks with five extra base hits. The 36-year-old jack of all trades has a .934 OPS this season with a career-best .235 Isolated Power, the result of Kendrick delivering hard contact at a 44% rate and a 32.6% fly ball rate. He’ll be licking his chops at the thought of hitting Cubs starter Jose Quintana, as Kendrick has a .912 OPS in 93 at-bats against lefties this season.

8/24 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. TOR at SEA

DK ($4,000), FD ($2,900)

Prior to Friday’s opener against the Mariners, Guerrero was hitting a robust .583/.667/1.083 over the past week with a pair of homers. He’s been more effective on the road, sporting an .896 OPS before Friday night while his walk rate has finally reached double digits at 10.1%. Guerrero’s .191 Isolated Power will continue to rise while his line drive rate (18.1%) has steadily climbed since the All-Star Break.

Both he and his dad will have something to else to share, as Guerrero will get the chance to face Mariners icon Felix Hernandez, who will be making his first start since May 11.

8/24 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Tommy Edman, STL vs. COL

DK ($4,500), FD ($2,800)

Edman had his third multi-hit game this week in Friday’s win over the Rockies, making him 4 for 9 (.444) against the Rockies. Teeing off on Colorado pitching isn’t the only reason for considering Edman. He’s produced a .902 OPS over the past two weeks and has been decisively more dominant at, where his .839 OPS far outweighs his .661 OPS outside St. Louis. Edman is living up to his projections as a line drive hitter (22.8%) with the ability to scald the ball (42.4% hard contact rate) with occasional power outbursts (10% HR/FB rate).

Look for Edman to thrive off Rockies starter Chi Chi Gonzalez, whose control issues (4.40 BB/9) is worsened by his 2.05 HR/9 rate. I won’t be shocked if Edman takes advantage of Gonzalez’s 45.2% hit rate and takes him deep.

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8/24 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Ryan Braun, MIL vs. ARI

DK ($4,800), FD ($2,900)

If it feels like the Brewers love facing Diamondbacks pitching, it’s because….well, they do. Braun rapped out a pair of hits and drove in a run in Friday’s win, giving him a slash of .438/.444/.688 (1.132 OPS) with a homer in 16 at-bats against Arizona this season. This feels like a vintage Braun campaign, evidenced by a .212 Isolated Power and .331 BABIP along with the fact he can still swipe a base or two.

He’s pulling the ball more (42.1%) than in previous years while experiencing a slight uptick in both line drive rate (19.5%) and fly ball rate (29%). The 43.8% hard contact rate helps drive his numbers, but it’s the 6.1% walk rate that’s worth keeping an eye on since Diamondbacks rookie Zac Gallen has struggled with walks. That is all the more reason to Brew up in the 8/24 DFS Hitting and Stacks.

8/24 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. COL

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,500)

He’s homered in consecutive games against the Rockies and gets a pitcher (Chi Chi Rodriguez) who is exceptionally homer-prone tonight. I’ll triple my long ball bets with Ozuna, who is hitting .500 with two homers, five RBI and six runs scored in his last four games. Gonzalez, who has also suffered control issues, is an ideal target for Ozuna, whose 10.4% walk rate and .254 Isolated Power has been major factors in the resurgence of his bat. Ozuna sports a 50% hard contact rate, which makes him more viable in 8/24 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks.

8/24 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Willie Calhoun, TEX at CWS

DK ($4,800), FD ($3,700)

Calhoun homered for the third time in five games, accounting for all of Texas’ offense in an 8-3 loss on Friday. The homer also continued displaying Calhoun’s slight edge as a more offensive hitter on the road, where his .911 OPS nudges past his .883 mark in Arlington.

Fly ball hitters are worth targeting when playing in Guaranteed Rate Field, and Calhoun certainly fits the bill with a 44.9% rate. He’s also equaled the strong run he had in the minors earlier in the season, flashing identical 20% HR/FB rates along with displaying an extreme pull nature (53.2%).

8/23 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/24 Hitting Stack of the Day: Cleveland Indians: On top of Santana, I’m tossing in Francisco Lindor ($5,100 DK). Jason Kipnis ($3,900 DK) is a good value play. Make sure Jose Ramirez ($5,100 DK) is part of the party, as he owns a pair of homers off Sparkman. Roberto Perez ($2,900 FD) is a good add as well. This will be a handsome payoff in the 8/24 DFS Hitting and Stacks lineup.

8/24 Hitting Stack Runners-Up: New York Yankees: Coming off a five-HR assault, the Yankees should feast off the the Dodgers. Gleyber Torres ($5,100 DK) has been off the chain during this West Coast swing. Aaron Judge ($3,900 FD) is showing signs of breaking out of a sluggish August. Pay up for Gary Sanchez ($4,100 FD) and smile while doing so.

8/24 Hitting Stack to Consider: Cincinnati Reds: Pirates starter Trevor Williams has a 8.03 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has allowed 18 homers in that span. That’s blood in the water for Aristides Aquino ($4,900 DK), who went deep on Friday night. Jose Iglesias ($3,700 DK) could be a bargain. Catcher Tucker Barnhart ($3,400 DK) has four hits in eight at-bats against Williams. Keep in mind Jesse Winker ($4,100 DK) has a pair of hits in six ABs vs. Williams.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB Fantasy Stacks: Winning Edge for August 23

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 13-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB Fantasy Stack: Houston Astros

vs.LHP Jose Suarez (LAA): 5.90 Runs

**Low Risk

Jose Suarez takes the mound for the Angels tonight and he will be facing the power packed Houston Astros. Suarez has been anything but good, allowing righties to slash to a .431 wOBA, .630 SLG, and .417 OBP. He has allowed 33 earned runs across 35 innings pitched to them. Suarez struggles with the long ball, allowing 2.70 HR/9 backed by a 42% flyball and 44% hard contact rate. He has allowed at least four earned runs or more in his last four starts. Pretty steep price to pay here for the Astros, but they continue to slash above their season averages for the month of August and get another great matchup here tonight.

Preferred Plays: George Springer ($4100 FD|$5300 DK), Alex Bregman ($4200 FD|$5500 DK), Jose Altuve ($4300 FD|$5300 DK), and Yuli Gurriel ($3300 FD|$5200 DK).

MLB Fantasy Stack: Milwaukee Brewers

vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI): 5.50 Runs

**Low Risk

The Brewers come in behind the Astros for second highest IRT on the slate (as of 5 AM EST). They will face an inconsistent Merrill Kelly, who has an ERA of 5.60 on the road compared to his stingy 3.66 ERA at home. Kelly has pitched the worst he has all year in the month of August, allowing batters to slash to a .387 wOBA, .571 SLG, and .373 OBP. Milwaukee isn’t showcasing a bunch of power in their lineup right now, but they are getting on base and creating runs as indicated by their 117 WRC+ to righties over the last two weeks. I’ll take the over on this one and look for some extra base hits from the Brew Crew.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB Fantasy Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. RHP Jakob Junis (KCR): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

MLB Fantasy Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. LHP Matt Boyd (DET): 5.15 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Nelson Cruz ($3800 FD|$5800 DK), Mitch Garver ($3200 FD|$4900 DK), Miguel Sano ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), and CJ Cron ($3000 FD|$4000 DK).

MLB Fantasy Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. RHP RHP Anthony DeSclafani (CIN): 4.50 Runs

**High Risk

Preferred Plays: Josh Bell ($4000 FD|$5000 DK), Bryan Reynolds ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), Starling Marte ($3600 FD|$5400 DK), and Adam Frazier ($2600 FD|$3900 DK),

Pitching

Jack Flaherty RHP (STL): 3.25 Runs
Lance Lynn RHP (TEX): 3.90 Runs
Vincent Velasquez RHP (PHI): 3.90 Runs

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MLB

8/16 MLB DFS Lineups Winners: Win Daily Staffer Tops Tournament For 100K

wesley maxwell 5 years ago

written by wesley maxwell

Today we are here to celebrate and congratulate one of our own, @TenaciousDJONES, on his six figure win last night. He rode an Indians/Mets stack to FanDuel glory. Details and how to get advice from David are included in this 8/16 MLB DFS Report.

8/16 MLB DFS Winner: David Jones of Win Daily

DFS Pro David Jones, one of our featured analysts on Win Daily, took down the $200,000 MLB Colossus on FanDuel with a grand prize of $100,000 on Thursday night. The contest had an entry fee of $1,650. The following lineup put David at the top of the tournament: Sonny Gray, Carlos Santana, Joe Panik, Jose Ramirez, Yasiel Puig, Greg Allen, J.D. Davis, Pete Alonso. You can get advice regularly from David on Win Daily as a free member or talk to him one on one in our Premium Gold Slack Chat throughout the week.

Huge Congrats to our very own @tenaciousDJONES who won over $105,000 tonight!! What a beast!! Shoutout to our subs who followed his sneaky slack stacks #DFS https://t.co/50RJUFqFGR pic.twitter.com/d7O5tlNbnm— Win Daily (@windailydfs) August 16, 2019

8/16 MLB DFS Winner: Mets/Indians

Both teams exploded last night and Tenacious D was all over them in pregame:

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You can see that line of recommendations was in our Premium Gold slack chat room. We are worth the couple of cups of coffee a month that it costs to join.

The Mets, led by Todd Frazier and Pete Alonso homers, scored 10 runs on 23 hits. Alonso went five for five with six RBI including his N.L. rookie-record tying 39th homer. Amed Rosario, batting leadoff after Jeff McNeil was injured, had five hits in six official ABs with two doubles, a triple and four runs scored.

The other games Tenacious D loved was in the Bronx. Though he mentioned the Yankees, he stacked the Indians in his winning lineup.

Some highlights from the 19 runs the Indians scored: Carlos Santana with four runs and three RBIs, including 2 HRs; Greg Allen with four each of RBI, runs and hits including a HR and Jose Ramirez with two HRs and six RBI. Ramirez had his counting stats by the end of the second inning.

8/16 MLB DFS Outlooks: Not surprisingly, the Indians are in the playoff hunt. In the lead for the AL wild-card by two games over Tampa Bay, three and a half over Oakland and nine and a half over Boston, they are also chasing Minnesota for the A.L. Central lead. They are only one-half game behind the Twins.

The Mets are surprisingly in the N.L. playoff chase. They are two games behind the current second wild-card leader, the Cubs. However, the Mets have many more teams to deal with than the A.L .contenders do, with Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Milwaukee all on the outside looking in but within three and a half games.

Also, David’s pockets will be fatter the rest of the season. Here is the final screenshot:

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8/14 DFS Pitching Picks: Kershaw Brings Miami Heat

5 years ago

written by

Tuesday begat Wednesday, and based on the quality of pitching available for the 8/14 DFS Pitching Picks, I kinda wish we stayed with Tuesday, Gerrit Cole scratch excluded. Save for the Dodgers doing us a favor and pushing Clayton Kershaw back an extra day, this shapes to be a meh-like slate of arms.

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My advice: invest in offense. Lots of offense. There have been worse days filled with mediocre to bad pitching across the board, but Wednesday is all about dart throwing for the most part. Fortunately for you, I’m throwing the darts, so sit back, follow the advice and count the long green that hits your accounts early Thursday morning.

8/14 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, LAD at MIA

DK ($11,800) FD ($12,000)

No explanation was given as to why Kershaw was pushed back an extra day, but one guess could be that he went about 100 pitches for only the fifth time this season in his last start. That being said, there will be many who will partake in Kershaw in what should be a feast against Marlins hitting.

Kershaw’s K/9 have fallen to “just’ 9.07, but the combination of a 1.94 BB/9 rate and a matchup against the league’s second-lowest scoring offense is a winning pair. Miami is averaging a mere 3.66 runs per game and are tied with Detroit for the Major League worst in OPS+ (78). Starting Kershaw. who has five starts of at least 46 FanDuel points in his last six starts, will eat into your offense, but this is a layup if you’re looking for pitching to amplify your DFS roster today.

Wade Miley, HOU at CWS

DK ($9,000) FD ($9,200)

Miley hasn’t lost a decision since June 17, having won five straight in a stretch where the Astros have gone 7-1 when he’s on the mound. Over those eight starts, Miley has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one and has produced a 2.21 ERA and .183 OBA since the All-Star Break. If you’re playing an afternoon-only slate, Miley could be the anchor of your staff, as he sports a 2.05 ERA in four daytime starts this season. Never a big strikeout artist, Miley has added two Ks per nine frames this season, going from a pedestrian 5.58 K/9 to a passable 7.55 K/9.

Miley continues to keep the ball on the ground (52.9% ground ball rate) but one of the biggest contributors to his career year has been a sharp reduction in line drive rate. Hitters had a 23.6% LD rate against him last season; those tables have turned to 16.1% this season. With a solid RA9 of 3.25, my bet is on Miley acing the pack.

8/14 DFS Pitching GPP Pitchers

Shane Bieber, CLE vs. BOS

DK ($10,700) FD ($10,700)

Bieber continues to make a play for AL Cy Young consideration, having struck out 37 batters over his last 32 innings, a stretch that also includes a pair of complete games and 1.69 ERA. The Indians will be looking for a similar effort from him after their bullpen has been gassed over the first two games of an offensive-heavy series entering an early start time on Wednesday.

While he certainly belongs in the cash game section, there’s mild concerns about Bieber that puts him in the GPP pack. For starters, the Red Sox lit him up for three homers and six earned runs in his only other start against them on May 29, yet he earned the win despite going five innings in a 14-9 slugfest. Bieber can counter that by displaying his 80:8 K:BB rate over 63 innings of daylight play. Whiffs and control are locks here, but Bieber’s 44.4% hard contact rate is a sign that his recent run could come to a brutal halt, especially with the caliber of bats the Red Sox will bring to the table.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS vs. CIN

DK ($11,000) FD ($11,000)

After Strasburg, the pitching cliff falls. Trust me, you won’t like the landing. He’s looked human over his last two starts after a run that saw him put up at least 46 FanDuel points in four of five starts that included a 74 FD point gem on July 3. Despite the elevated ERA, Strasburg is already +12 in RAR over last season and his 3.9 WAR puts him on pace to approach his career-best 6.4 from 2017.

In what looks like a sign of Strasburg adjusting to age, he’s thrown his fastball under 50% for the first time in his career (49.6%), relying more on his curve (30.2%) than at any other time. Strasburg is whiffing batters at a 29.2% clip, so whatever he’s doing is working. When it comes to his ERA, Strasburg’s 3.28 FIP tells a more accurate story than his actual 3.72 ERA. I’d consider Strasburg in the cash format, but the Reds have the firepower to make him a risk, which is why he falls in the 8/14 DFS Pitching Picks rankings.

8/14 DFS Pitching Punt Play

Cal Quantrill, SD vs. TB

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,000)

Since the Padres made him a fixture in the rotation, Quantrill has ripped off a 1.62 ERA in six starts. The early stretch of walks is a distant memory, as he averages just 2.31 BB/9 overall while also holding batters to a .183 OBA since the All-Star Break, a run that has seen Quantrill’s ERA dip to 0.93. He also eclipsed the 100-pitch mark for the first time in his career while throwing seven shutout innings against the Rockies last Thursday.

Quantrill offers just enough strikeout punch (7.33 K/9) and a 2.93 home ERA, a combination that makes him a good low-risk, high-reward option. The Rays are hitting the ball well on the road (+21 in homers), but Quantrill’s recent run will last long enough to slow down Tampa Bay’s methodical lineup.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS Hitting Stacks & Picks for August 9

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

Yes, there is preseason football on tonight, but it’s the kind of football that will impact your Fantasy draft. In other words, stay focused on the diamond, follow the words and numbers below and be ready to make DFS money off the usual 15-game slate. Caring isn’t sharing here, so if there’s a sore pooh or two upset about not getting all 30 teams equally covered, well…um…tough. Them’s the breaks.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!Opposite Day rules apply: we’ll find our bargains at each position before the glorious task of stacking (mmm…stacking) lineups.8/9 DFS Hitting CFrancisco Mejia, SD vs. COLDK ($3,200), FD ($2,300)Hey, if he keeps hitting, then why not keep him in the lineup? Mejia had his third straight multi-hit game on Thursday night and fourth in his last five, pushing his batting average above .260. His slugging percentage barely hovers above .400, but if there’s anything you need to know about catchers is that the pop sometimes is the last thing that develops. What will make Mejia — and his DFS users — smile in glee is that the Rockies are throwing the extended batting practice pitcher that is known as Kyle Freeland, who has given up as many homers as the number of batters he’s struck out (five) in his last two starts (Bonus smile: Right-handed hitters have gone .292/.362/.603 this season against Freeland).8/9 DFS Hitting 1BJose Abreu, CWS vs. OAKDK ($4,000), FD ($3,800)Abreu has rewarded FanDuel users with games of 37.70 and 25.40 points this week as his August OPS of 1.008 is light years from July’s tepid mark of .608. He’s cheap in either format and you’ll also take comfort in knowing his .804 OPS at Guaranteed Rate Field is better than his .782 away from ChiTown. Abreu’s .211 Isolated Power is slightly higher than last season’s, and his current stretch gives him a better than outside chance to finish with 35+ homers. Mike Fiers isn’t pitching in Oakland, which is a very good thing considering his ERA away from the City that M.C. Hammer Built is 4.62. Don’t hurt ’em, Jose (at least not too much).8/9 DFS Hitting 2BJason Kipnis, CLE at MINDK ($4,300), FD ($3,300)Since July 31, Kipnis has five multi-hit games along with three homers and 11 RBI. He’s been banging it over the past two weeks to the tune of .348./.423/.696, harkening back to the good ‘ol days when he was actually a must-own player in that other kind of Fantasy baseball. After a pair of dogs in 2017-18, Kipnis has found some fortune with his BABIP, which stands at .284. His current run is keyed by his hard contact rate of 38.7%, the best of his career. Rookie hurler Devin Smeltzer has been a revelation of sorts for the Twins’ staff, but Indians batters showed him hellfire and brimstone when they jacked four homers off him in a win on June 4.8/9 DFS Hitting SSBo Bichette, TOR vs. NYYDK ($4,300), FD ($3,900)Like the aforementioned Mejia, if it ain’t broke… Bichette made big league history on Thursday when he doubled for a ninth straight game along with taking Domingo German deep in the 12-6 loss to the Yankees. No one should pull Bichette aside and tell him it can’t be that easy, especially when he’s gone .408/.453/.837 in his first 11 games. Obviously, he’s not getting cheated out of his at-bats as Bichette has made either medium or hard contact 91.2% of the time. And yes, please throw lefty J.A. Happ in front of Bichette, who has hit lefties with a 1.476 OPS.8/9 DFS Hitting 3BJose Ramirez, CLE at MINDK ($4,300), FD ($3,300)Uh, oh. Perhaps I’ve tipped my hand on a stack? Maybe, but Ramirez has been a one-man stack over the past week by hitting .400 with a pair of homers, seven RBI and six runs scored. As bad as his numbers looked earlier in the season, this newfound version of Ramirez is well on his way to another 20-20 season. Ramirez has a 47.8% fly ball rate to go along with a 39.1% hard contact rate. You’ll take that combination to the bank against a hurler like Smeltzer.8/9 DFS Hitting OFYordan Alvarez, HOU at BALDK ($5,700), FD ($4,300)Hell yes, I’m paying steep for the right to have Alvarez in my lineup. A longtime friend of mine was witness to Alvarez’s homer on Wednesday and told me he had never heard the ball come off a bat the way that blast did. Considering I’ve known this guy since first grade, I’ll trust him. You really, really want him in FanDuel, where he’s recorded at least 12.50 points in five of his last six games, including a 27.90 and 22.20 performances. Any hitter with a .404 BABIP and 50.4% hard contact rate going against Orioles pitching, in tonight’s case Dylan “Me and 24 homers Allowed and 5.89 ERA at Home” Bundy, is worth every penny.8/9 DFS Hitting OFMike Tauchman, NYY at TORDK ($4,900), FD ($3,400)With a homer on Thursday, Tauchman has four dingers and 13 RBI this month. He’s not an all or nothing hitter, having recorded four multi-hit games in the same span. One would think Tauchman would have a blistering hard contact rate like Alvarez, but his is a surprising 31.7%. Couple that with a 32% fly ball rate, and you’re seeing a hitter making the most of his opportunities. The Blue Jays are starting Sean Reid-Foley, who is beginning to be stretched out as a starter. Reid-Foley has held opponents to a .229 batting average but has walked 14 in 21.2 innings. Seriously, do you really want that kind of a walk rate when facing the Yankees?8/9 DFS Hitting OFAristides Aquino, CIN vs. CHCDK ($3,700), FD ($3,000)Aquino’s homer off Cole Hamels on Thursday night jumped the fence at 118.3 mph, tying him with Pete Alonso and Gary Sanchez for the hardest-hit homer this season. He’s fanned once every three at-bats, but Aquino has produced a .905 OPS in his first 21 at-bats to go along with three homers (and a throw on Thursday that looked Jose Guillen-like with its velocity). Yu Darvish gets the opportunity to deal against the freakish Aquino and while his 71 strikeouts over his past 59.2 innings is a sign the old Darvish is back, all he has to do is ask Hamels what’s it like when you leave one up there for Aquino to lean into.Let’s take it home and stack ’em up, shall we?Top 8/9 MLB DFS Stack: Houston Astros: We touched on Dylan Bundy and his hitter-friendly numbers, which means get your Astros in where you can fit them it. Obviously, Yordan Alvarez will take a good grip of your salary, but that could be countered by going cheap on a speculative pitcher. George Springer ($4,400 at FanDuel) is hitting .368 with a homer and four RBI over the past week, while Yuli Gurriel ($3,500) scored a combined 102.30 FanDuel points in two games against the Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday. Michael Brantley ($4,100) hasn’t homered in the past week but still hit .348 with nine RBI. As hot as Houston’s bats have been, you’ll sacrifice at a position or two in order to make this stack work.Chicago White Sox 8/9 MLB DFS Stack: As mentioned earlier, A’s starter Mike Fiers is suspect on the road, and the White Sox have enough hot bats to strongly consider stacking against him. Start with Jose Abreu (see his work at 1B) and follow up with Eloy Jimenez ($3,100 FanDuel) who looks overdue for a breakout since his return from the DL. James McCann ($2,800) has had a good week with 21.90 and 22.50 points sandwiched between a 15.70 outing. Tim Anderson ($3,000) comes into Friday having put up at least 15.20 points in four of his last six games.New York Yankees 8/9 MLB DFS Stack: The Yankees have hit 19 homers in four games this week and I’d bet on world peace coming before betting against the Yankees going homerless on Friday. Go with Mike Tauchman (see OF) and make room for Gio Urshela ($4,600 Draft Kings), who had two homers and four RBI on Thursday night. If you want to spend a bit more, then go with D.J. LeMahieu ($5,100), who has gone .370-2-6 in the past week. Even Cameron Maybin ($4,600), who racked up three hits on Thursday, is worth throwing into the fray.THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

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