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Cleveland Browns

The NFL DFS Week 1 GPP Picks Of Destiny

5 years ago

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Week 1 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

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Check back for updates closer to lineup lock on Sunday.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Baker Mayfield ($7,900 FD; $6,400 DK)

I fully expect the Browns to come out with guns blazing for their home opener. Baker Mayfield is going to try and feed the Big 3 in OBJ, Landry and Chubb. The Titans will be tasked with trying to stop this new and improved offense with big expectations. The home field advantage will be real on Sunday. The Browns win big and Baker shows off. See Chubb and OBJ below

Stud Pivot: Patrick Mahomes

Mid Quarterback: Jameis Winston: ($7,500 FD; $6,600 DK)

The 49ers defense is bad and they travel across the country to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jameis Winston doesn’t exactly have a stable of running backs to rely on so I am expecting more of a passing attack here. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard are all big play threats that will help carry Winston. I also love NFL DFS quarterbacks that are not afraid to run when the play breaks down and Winston has proven that he can get yards on the ground too. He should be good for mid 20s NFL DFS FanDuel points here with upside for more.

Mid Pivot: Jared Goff

Value Quarterback: Josh Allen ($6,900 FD; $5,600 DK)

You are going to see me play him a lot this year, especially if his price stays this low. Allen runs the ball and that is huge for me at quarterback in NFL DFS. Last season he RUSHED for eight touchdowns and 631 yards. There was admittedly a lot to be desired in the passing game but he did throw for over 2,000 yards with 10 touchdowns. Reports out of camp suggest he has improved with his decision making and accuracy. He has also looked sharp (most of the time) during the preseason. The Bills have improved around their young receiving corps with the offseason additions of vets like John Brown and Cole Beasley which only benefits Allen. If I’m punting in a GPP with a cheap QB it is going to be Josh Allen against the New York Jets.

Running Backs

Stud RB: Dalvin Cook: ($7,400 FD; $6,000 DK)

For NFL DFS you want to target running backs who are not splitting time and have a guaranteed workload. Dalvin Cook will be the lone back, in a game I predict to be high scoring. He also gets targeted regularly in the passing game. The Vikings only kept FOUR wide receivers on their roster so there is going to need to be passing production from the backs and tight ends. Last year the Falcons were TERRIBLE against pass catching RBs and I don’t think they have made enough adjustments this year to completely fix the problem. It should be worth noting that the Falcons had a lot of injuries last year and get back Keanu Neal and Deion Jones, however that doesn’t get me off DC. Cook is the 10th highest priced running back and is in arguably one of the best matchups. He plays at home and is fully healthy (which was his problem last year). Cook will be on my main GPP team. The price and matchup are just too good to ignore.

Stud RB: Nick Chubb ($7,400 FD; $6,400 DK)

I am HIGH on the Browns Week 1. The atmosphere in Cleveland is going to be electric. They have high hopes for this team and Baker and the Boys are going to score as many points as possible just to prove they belong. I love the Wide Receivers and QB, but also Mr. Chubb. Nick is going to get a full workload rushing as well as a few targets from Baker. Duke Johnson’s departure as the pass catching back should help slightly. The Titans defense is not one to be feared. They are going to be spread thin trying to defend the pass and this should cause them to not be 100% focused on stopping the run. Chubb should get near 20 touches, several Red Zone opportunities, and will get a few check down targets. The opportunity is there and expect the former college star to break out in his second season in the NFL (much like his old Georgia teammate Todd Gurley did in his sophomore year).

Update: Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 FD; $8,800 DK)

He does it all. He should get at least 15 rush attempts and double digit receiving targets is a real possibility too. I like him better on DraftKings because the of the PPR structure. He is expensive but that is because he is safe with very high upside. With all the value on the week one slate it shouldn’t be a problem fitting him in. He will go against the Rams who were not known to stop the run last year. They fly in from the West Coast all the way to Carolina to try and make up for their embarrassing Super Bowl loss. Win, lose or draw, McCaffrey is going to be a constant on the Carolina Offense yet again this season and is as safe as it gets at running back.

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Odell Beckham Jr ($8,200 FD; $8,100 DK)

Update: He is high risk because of a lingering hip issue. If he is on the field I think he will be going full speed. His ownership will be lower than normal because of the injury concern. If OBJ is not hindered by his hip, he is in a great spot. Don’t go all in here but maybe get a share on larger field GPPs. Keep an eye on the news leading up to kickoff.

The Browns have a new toy in OBJ and they are going to make sure he gets his in the home opener. The argument can be made that he has the best hand(s) ever in NFL history (Yes, I mean that). There is nothing more that he is going to want to do then erupt for a huge game to not only impress his new Browns fans but rub the offseason trade right in the Giants face. Baker and OBJ are going to be dynamic together. This is a showtime QB with a showtime receiver. If Beckham Jr. doesn’t come down with a touchdown it will not be for a lack of effort. He will be getting plenty of targets and designed plays to get him in the endzone. If you want to save the $ you can go down to his old LSU counterpart Jarvis Landry. With the Titans defense having to focus more on Beckham, Landry will find himself with a little more space to operate.

Stud Pivots: ADAM THIELEN, Robert Woods

Mid WR: Mike Williams ($6,400 FD; $5,300 DK)

Here is a guy no one will own. The Chargers lost their franchise RB to a holdout and are now going to have to find a way to keep their remaining injury prone backs healthy. Austin Ekeler WILL unfortunately go down with injury this year and the Chargers know it. I expect a mix of both him and Justin Jackson for the time being, with a larger focus on the receiving game. The Chargers WR one, Keenan Allen, has not played in a single preseason game with a nagging ankle injury which moves Williams up to wide receiver 1B. His price is too cheap for the role he should play against the Colts. Quarterback Philip Rivers told Eric D. Williams of ESPN that he expects Williams to be a “Big Part” of the Chargers offense this season. Let’s get in on him before his price starts to rise and his ownership goes up. He is my favorite mid range Milli Maker wide receiver.

WR Midrange Pivots: Calvin Ridley, Jarvis Landry

Value WR: Dede Westbrook ($5,900 FD; $4,800 DK)

I’m not really sure why the Chiefs are only favored over the Jags by 3.5 points. I was expecting at least a touchdown. Anyway, the Jags should be playing from behind here. I know people think the Jags are an elite defensive unit because of what they did in 2017, but they can also get blown up (see 2018) and who else is better than blowing up defenses then Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs? Why does this matter? Because Nick Foles should have to air it out in the second half and Westbrook is emerging as his favorite target. Fellow Jags WR Marqise Lee is coming back from missing the entire 2018 season and I don’t expect him to come out of the gate with a large workload expectation. D.J. Chark is an athletic freak but has yet to make the leap of being a consistent NFL option. Chris Conley is a new addition, however there is no reason to believes he will excel more in the Jacksonville offense than the lethal Chiefs offense where he was last year. All of these uncertainties at wide receiver just funnel me more towards Westbrook. I’ve seen him win GPPs before and this feels like a good week to get some NFL DFS shares.

WR Punt: Demetrius Harris

Tight End

Stud TE: Travis Kelce ($7,800 FD; $7,100 DK)

Jalen Ramsey is going to shadow Hill and Kelce is the next best passing option. He is the top TE in the NFL and has the MVP throwing to him. The Chiefs also use their TE as an offensive threat more than any other team in the league. The Jaguars are not going to double cover him and that is going to be a mistake. Kelce should finish the week as one of the top scoring TEs, but he is also the most expensive. . At a position that regularly delivers zeros you can feel safe that Kelce is going to get you enough to keep you alive in GPPs. If we get lucky he will be much lower owned than he should be just because people will not want to target the Jags D.

Mid TE: O.J. Howard ($6,500 FD; $5,000 DK)

Jameis Winston shouldn’t have much resistance vs the San Francisco 49ers defense. Mike Evans is their top receiving option but O.J.. Howard is on the verge of a real NFL DFS breakout season. He has impressed all camp and has the trust of his quarterback. Adam Humphries was shockingly targeted second most on the Bucs last season and now is in Tennessee. DeSean Jackson was targeted fourth most and he now is also gone. These two departures should help funnel more looks towards the star Tight End that the Bucs know they have.

Value: Austin Hooper ($5,500 FD; $3,200 DK)

Don’t sleep on the Falcons offense. I like Hooper’s price. I like his role in this new Steve Sarkisianless offense. I like that Matt Ryan is a vet who spreads it around and doesn’t force throws to his superstar(s). I like that the Vikings will be least focused on Hooper with Julio, Ridley, Freeman and Sanu on the field. I like that this should be a high scoring game. I like his low ownership. I like Hooper as a punt.

Defense

Chargers
Eagles
Seahawks
Ravens
Update: Browns
Cowboys

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL Preseason DFS Week 3 Friday – Sunday Game Previews

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

Did you enjoy the action last night? Does the NFL Preseason DFS Week 3 slate have unable to get enough? The weekend is just getting started. We have 10 games coming up on Friday thru Sunday, making it a busy weekend for DFS preseason on DraftKings and FanDuel. The games include CLE @ TB, BUF @ DET, ARI @ MIN, HOU @ DAL, CHI @ IND, NO @ NYJ, SF @ KC, DEN @ LAR, SEA @ LAC, and PIT @ TEN.

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Friday Preseason DFS: CLE @ TB

Browns

Head coach Freddie Kitchens indicated on Wednesday that Baker Mayfield, Myles Garrett and the rest of the starters will indeed play in Friday night’s game in Tampa Bay. “We’re going to play our guys some,” Kitchens said after Wednesday’s practice, “and I don’t know how long yet.” Mayfield wants to play at least a half tonight. If indeed Mayfield does see extended playing time, look for Rashard Higgins. He has led the team in targets (10), receptions (9), and receiving yards (132).

Buccaneers

Mike Evans will not play in this game. The interesting play for the Bucs in this game is running back Dare Ogunbowale, who leads the team in rushing attempts (23) and is third in the NFL in that category. He has also flashed three-down skillset with three receptions for 54 receiving yards. Ronald Jones is dealing with a knee injury and with Peyton Barber, the presumed starter, not expected to play, you can roll with Ogunbowale. By this point, Tanner Hudson needs to be a lock at tight end. He leads the league in receptions, receiving yards, targets, and total routes run through two weeks of the preseason.

BUF @ DET

Bills

Wide receiver Duke Williams and tight end Tommy Sweeney seems like the best plays for the Bills. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has singled out Williams for ‘taking advantage of opportunity’. Meanwhile, Sweeney leads the team in routes run (32). Dawson Knox is expected to play; however, set limit expectations for Sweeney if he suits up against the Lions after missing time with a hamstring injury. At running back, Devin Singletary is also a viable option as he has seen heavy usage in the passing game. He has a team-best eight targets . Overall, Bills’ starters should see plenty of work. With Lions likely resting players, the Bills’ defense could be a leverage play. The Lions have allowed 140 passing yards to three different quarterbacks over the past two weeks.

https://twitter.com/JennaCottrell/status/1164200645718622208

https://twitter.com/PrescottRossi/status/1164200863310782464

Lions

Matthew Stafford’s status of playing in Week 3 is still up in the air. If he ends up not playing, adding mobile quarterback Josh Johnson seems like a great play for preseason DFS. Be bullish on Lions’ starters in general for Friday night. The top three receivers on the depth chart are locked in, but the depth behind is the real question mark. I like Brandon Powell, who leads the team in targets and receptions. Interesting tidbit as well here: Bills offensive coordinator Daboll was a former New England offensive assistant when Patricia was with the Patriots. His offense is going to be similar to what the Lions faced the last two weeks against New England and Houston. allowing at least 30 points to both teams. Defensively, however, Patricia said Leslie Frazier’s defense is different than what Detroit’s faced the last two weeks. Running back Zach Zenner should get plenty of work and state his case for a bigger workload once the games count.

https://twitter.com/LionsPR/status/1163912701879476224

https://twitter.com/erikschlitt/status/1164696979181625353

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Saturday Preseason DFS: ARI @ MIN

Cardinals

Kyler Murray has not played great in the first two preseason games. Reports have shown that the Cardinals will show a little more of their real offense in Week 3, making Murray a very enticing option to play at quarterback. Interestingly enough, the Vikings defense has struggled with mobile quarterbacks. Overall, the Cardinals plan on using Week 3 as more of a real game. Head coach Cliff Kingsbury mentioned that Saturday was a target to switch from install to game planning their opponents. Murray seems like a sharp play, along with rookie KeeSean Johnson who leads the team in targets (9).

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1163973644231598080

Vikings

Music to my preseason DFS ears: the Vikings trying to ‘showcase’ receiver Laquon Treadwell. “We’re trying to get Treadwell the ball a little bit more in the second half,” Coach Mike Zimmer said after Sunday’s game against the Seahawks via USA TODAY. “Try to showcase him a little bit, I guess. He made some nice plays.” Guaranteed touches are hard to come by, so when the coach blatantly comes out and says it, you need to be listening. Treadwell finished with four catches for 47 yards against the Seahawks, so expect more of the same on Saturday against the Cardinals, especially late in the game. Mike Boone is always an option at running back as the preseason darling he is. He has 181 yards on 26 touches through two weeks.

HOU @ DAL

Texans

Receiver Kahale Warring is still in concussion protocol and Will Fuller and Keke Coutee do not look like they will play. Injuries create more opportunities for receiver Vyncint Smith (leads team in routes run), and tight end Jerell Adams. Joe Webb is always an option as well because of his rushing upside and the fact that he is second in the NFL in passing yards (236 yards/game). Focus on the backups here. The Cowboys are also missing multiple starters on their defense because of injuries who will most likely be held out in this contest.

https://twitter.com/rjochoa/status/1164636707192483841

Cowboys

There will be no Amari Cooper in Week 3 of the preseason for Dallas. A receiver to look at instead is Jon’Vea Johnson who leads the team in routes run and total targets in the passing game. He has also been impressing the staff at training camp according to Albert Breer via the MMQB. For running back the Cowboys seem dead-set on showcasing Tony Pollard as much as they can so even in a limited capacity he is worth rostering.

https://twitter.com/CharlesThomas90/status/1164633509832663040

CHI @ IND

Bears

Again it will be more of the same with the Bears holding out their starters in the preseason. Seems smart based on what we have seen from Thursday night. Tight end Ian Bunting has shown great receiving ability (second on the team in receiving yards.) Javon Wims is still the best bet at wide receiver by leading the team in yards/route run (2.14), receptions (7), and second in targets (9). Kerrith Whyte and Ryan Nall will split touches at running back, but Whyte has the most upside with his speed and usage in outside zone runs.

https://twitter.com/CEmma670/status/1164719025798209537

Colts

The Colts are going to withhold publicly naming their starting quarterback. Head coach Frank Reich said that you will not see most of the starters in this preseason game. An interesting player that has yet to see the field for injuries is receiver Penny Hart, who finally returned to practice. Running back is also very interesting with Marlon Mack, Johnathan Williams and Jordan Wilkins all most likely out. Aca’Cedric Ware led the team in rushing attempts in Week 2 of the preseason.

NO @ NYJ

Saints

Reports state that Drew Brees will play. In past years, the Saints have kept him in for either the entire first quarter or pulled him after a three-and-out series to start the game, so his workload against the Jets is anyone’s guess. The quarterback to target may actually be Taysom Hill. Hill had 191 yards of offense and directed three second-half scoring drives against the Chargers. A receiver to target is Austin Carr who has impressed Brees in training camp entering his third season. “I think Austin’s had a great camp. He continues to get better each day. I’m really developing a lot of confidence in him,” Brees said. That translates into NFL Preseason DFS Week 3 potential.

https://twitter.com/MikeTriplett/status/1164232521661538308

Jets

There will be no Le’Veon Bell in the preseason for the Jets. That creates a massive opportunity for Ty Montgomery to see extended reps with the first-team offense. Montgomery led the team in carries in Week 2.

SF @ KC

49ers

The 49ers are trying to stay as healthy as possible entering the regular season. The reports are that Jimmy Garoppolo will play the first half, which would be great for preseason DFS. This Chiefs defense is very different than the Broncos unit they faced last week. A perfect receiver to pair with Jimmy G is Deebo Samuel. The 49ers have found interesting ways to get him the ball and he leads the 49ers in yards/route run (2.03) through two weeks. Look for him to finish among the top scorers in NFL Preseason Week 3 DFS

Chiefs

It’s all about Darwin Thompson, who is shooting up the Chiefs depth chart. Another strong showing Saturday night could solidify Darwin Thompson as the Chiefs No. 2 back behind Damien Williams. Cody Thompson is also a great look at wide receiver. He leads the team in targets (12), yards/route run (2.38), and receiving yards (88).

DEN @ LAR

Broncos

Though it is Week 3 for most, this is the Broncos fourth preseason game. Head Coach Vic Fangio told the media that most of the starters will not play at all in the upcoming preseason game against the Rams on Saturday night. Coach Vic Fangio said Kevin Hogan will get the majority of the reps at quarterback. For receivers, the play should be Juwann Winfree with Hogan. All of the lower-ranked receivers have seen similar target distribution, but Winfree has the most gain by putting up stats on Saturday.

Rams

It’s more of the same with the Rams, who do not play any of their starters in the preseason. Darrell Henderson has to lead the team in carries, but he is an upside play with his explosive run-style. There is not much outside of that with the Rams for preseason DFS.

SEA @ LAC

Seahawks

Pete Carroll has come to the defense of Rashaad Penny, so don’t be surprised if they dial something up for him in Week 3. Penny has just 13 yards on 12 carries this preseason, so it would be nice to see some burst from him. At receiver, Jazz Ferguson is slightly ahead of John Ursua and the box score shows that. He has twice as many targets (10) despite running fewer routes (23 vs 29). His ceiling is much higher than Ursua’s.

Chargers

Anthony Lynn said Philip Rivers did not ask for playing time in the third preseason game against the Seahawks, so the plan remains to keep the Chargers’ starting quarterback out of the game. Most of the starters are expected to miss this preseason game. No player has really stood out from the depth in the first two preseason games, so the Chargers are definitely a team to fade in preseason DFS.

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Sunday Preseason DFS: PIT @ TEN

Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger wants to get work in for as many receivers as possible Sunday. This is not good for preseason DFS as we are looking for consolidated targets for receivers. Diontae Johnson looks to be the lowest on the depth chart with the most upside that should be targeted. James Washington has essentially been Mr. Preseason leading the team in targets, yards, and routes run. Reports have surfaced that Benny Snell is a longshot to contribute in 2019, so per usual, the Steelers should just run him into the wall for the remainder of the preseason. His 20 rushing attempts are 11 more than then next closest on the roster.

Titans

A handful of injuries for the Titans, with running backs Dalyn Dawkins and David Fluellen along with tight end Ryan Hewitt being banged up. It could mean another showing for Jeremy McNichols at running back for the Titans or Alex Barnes. Stay up to date with inactives at running back for Sunday’s game. But with the hype as the McWeapon, he might need to be a lock come gameday. Dont be surprised to see McNichols among the league leaders in NFL Preseason DFS Week 3.

https://twitter.com/ChrisWesseling/status/1164653974038962177