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Cincinnati Reds

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 21)

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Wednesday and that brings us a split slate of baseball. This article will be focused on the 7-game slate of MLB DFS that is starting at 12:10 EST. This slate brings us some exciting teams in the Reds, Orioles, and Rays and also brings us some bottom feeders in the Rockies, Royals and Detroit. There will be plenty of options on both the pitching front and stacking front.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zac Gallen vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are solidifying a spot on the “Use Pitchers Against” list. They continuously strike out a ton and have one of the most inconsistent lineups in the game. Ryne Nelson, a much inferior starter to Gallen, was able to strikeout 6 Brewers over 5 innings of work. This sets up for Zac Gallen to have one of his vintage outings, an outing just like the one that he’s coming off against the Guardians.

Zac Gallen struck out 7 in that one and there’s little reason to think he can’t replicate that number or even increase upon it against a team that is striking out nearly 25% of the time against righties this season. Gallen is my SP1 on this slate.

Andrew Abbott vs. Colorado Rockies

This pick comes with a smidge of risk. So far through 3 starts, Andrew Abbott is sporting a 0 ERA and has been over 17 DK points in all 3. He comes into this matchup today against the Rockies facing a team that for all intents and purposes has been awful against lefties. Combined, they have a 26% strikeout rate vs. lefties and a wOBA of .284. In theory, Abbott should be able to walk right through this lineup.

There are some warning signs though of regression for Abbott. He’s giving up a ton of flyballs, a ton of hard hits, and few strikeouts. His xFIP is a full 5 runs higher than his 0 ERA. There’s going to be some negative regression coming his way, I just don’t think it will be today vs. a team that struggles vs. lefties.

Other pitchers I like this afternoon are Brady Singer vs. Detroit and Julio Teheran vs. Arizona.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cincinnati Reds vs. Connor Seabold

The surging first-place Cincinnati Reds won their tenth straight game last night and now hold a .5 game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers. Yes, you read that right. The Cincinnati Reds are in first place and there is no sign of them slowing down. Today they’ll get a cake matchup vs. Connor Seabold.

Over the last month, Seabold has pitched to a 5.76 ERA which is right in line with this 5.63 xFIP. We’re getting what we expect to be getting from the Rockies’ righthander. With Seabold, we won’t need to be overly concerned with splits. He’s been pretty bad vs. both sides of the play, with the righties having a slightly higher wOBA than the lefties.

I want to preface this by saying that the entire Reds lineup will be in play today. They scored 8 yesterday and I’m sure they’ll put up another crooked number today. Seabold has been bad and the Reds lineup has been dynamic. It sets up for another high-scoring day for the Big Red Machine. That said, I’m going to prioritize getting in Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, and Jake Fraley.

All have excellent numbers vs. righties this season. Both De La Cruz and Fraley have ISO’s over .200 against righties. De La Cruz so far has shown way more competence as a left-handed hitter so he’s an absolute lock for me today. Other bats that are higher up on the priority list for me will be Joey Votto and Will Benson. Again though, everyone is in play.

Houston Astros vs. Tylor Megill

When the Mets let guys like Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, and Seth Lugo go, it was with the notion that Tylor Megill would be able to step into the number 5 starter spot and do well. That hasn’t happened. It’s actually been the opposite. Over his last 5 starts, Megill has allowed 4 runs or more in the 3 of them. Over the last month, he has a slate-worse 6.75 ERA.

The thing that has killed him the most has been his control. He has a 4.76 BB/9 over his last 22 innings of work which has led to a 1.99 WHIP. You can’t be successful giving up that many passes and having a WHIP close to 2 screams bad. Megill has similar numbers to both sides of the plate so I won’t be overly concerned with splits.

I’ll start by saying this lineup has been extremely inconsistent. They scored 4 last night, but just 1 the night before. Even without Yordan Alvarez though, this lineup has some upside, even if they aren’t a sure thing. I’m going to look to get guys like Kyle Tucker, Yainer Diaz, and Jose Altuve into my lineups. Diaz has actually been the hottest hitter in this lineup over the last week. Over his last 26 AB, he has 9 hits and 3 homers. He’s also sporting an OPS of 1.077. That’s the highest on the team over that stretch.

After those 3, I’ll also look to get in Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, and Jeremy Pena. This lineup today has the potential to put up a large number as long as they are patient with Megill.

Other stacks I like today are Toronto vs. Sandy Alcantera, Kansas City vs. Matthew Boyd, and the New York Mets vs. Christian Javier.

MLB DFS Summary

This slate is shaping up to be a fun one. We have the most exciting team in baseball right now in the Reds with a cake matchup on paper. We also have some pitchers in smash spots like Zac Gallen.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 19)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Monday and that means we have somewhat of a shortened slate. Tonight we are blessed with a 7-game slate of MLB DFS. We have a handful of top pitchers on this slate. We also have a handful of pitchers that stacking against is a usual play. It’s shaping up to be a small but solid slate.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

James Paxton vs. Minnesota Twins

Oft-injured James Paxton is finally healthy again and boy is he pitching well. Over the last month, Paxton has just been phenomenal. He’s pitched to an ERA of just over 3.4, but what’s most important is that he’s been racking up the strikeouts. Over that same period, Paxton has a nearly 34% k rate. There’s no one on this slate that has the K upside that he’s been showing.

What helps is that he’ll be facing a Twins lineup that has struggled mightily vs. southpaws this season. The Twins have a 28% k rate vs. lefties this season wOBA under .300. This all sets up extremely well for Paxton to continue his stretch of really solid pitching. He’s reached at least 20 DK points in 5 of his 6 starts this season. He should add to that number tonight. He’s also still under $10k.

Merrill Kelly vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Another pitcher under $10k tonight that’s in a really solid spot is Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He gets a strong matchup tonight vs. the Milwaukee Brewers. This has been a strike-out-happy team all season. Against righties this season, the Brewers have a 25% strikeout rate. They’ve also done little in the way of damage as well as they have an OPS under .700 and a wOBA just a shade over .300.

Kelly for his part has pitched extremely well this season. We have to go all the way back to April 6 to find an outing where he was in single-digit DK points. Over his last 5 starts, he’s been over 15 DK points in all. With how well he’s been pitching, he should be able to navigate this lineup with relative ease tonight.

Other pitchers that I like tonight will be Hunter Brown vs. the all too disappointing Mets and Corbin Burnes vs. Arizona Diamondbacks. Personally, I’ll be sticking with the Paxton/Kelly combo in all my lineups.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Cincinnati Reds vs. Austin Gomber

The pick on Austin Gomber show heads to Cincinnati tonight. We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather on this one but if it plays, it’s an absolute smash spot for the Reds. Austin Gomber has been horrific this season. He boasts an ERA over 7 and if we dial that back to just the past 30 days, it balloons to nearly 8.5. Over his past 30 days, Gomber has allowed 7 homers and 10 barrels in just 22 innings of work. Hitters have a 46% hard-hit rate vs. him.

He’s not fooling anyone currently and until he figures it out on the mound, we’ll want to attack him at any chance we get. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. Both sides of the plate have been crushing. Surprisingly though, lefties have been battering him a smidge more as they have a .447 wOBA vs. him and a .333 ISO. All hands on deck here.

I’m going to start my Reds stack with Matt McLain and Spencer Steer. Both guys have crushed lefties this season. In 34 plate appearances, McLain has a .456 wOBA and a .294 ISO. The youngster is going to be the heart and soul of this team going forward for a long time to come and I’m going to make sure he’s in my lineup tonight.

Steer has also been really solid, with a .363 wOBA and a .250 ISO. Steer also brings in the element of stolen bases for us as he’s up to 6 on the year. He homered yesterday and with how bad Gomber has been, a homer in back-to-back games is not out of the question. Other bats to include here are going to be anyone that makes the lineup. I’m all in on this lineup as long as this game plays.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Drew Smyly

Up until about a few weeks ago, Drew Smyly had actually been a serviceable pitcher. He was limiting teams to only a run or 2 each game. That has changed over the last few outings. He’s not gone 4 straight games with allowing at least 3 opponents to score. In his last outing against this same Pirates team, Smyly gave up 5 ER on 3 homers.

He’s back to his old bad ways of pitching and we’ll want to take advantage of that. Like Gomber, I’m going not going to be overly worried about splits. Smyly too has been worse against lefties so they’ll stay in play. That said, I’m going to focus more on the righties here.

The two bats I want here first are going to be Connor Joe and Rodolfo Castro. Both guys have been far and away the best hitters in this lineup vs. lefties. Joe has a .441 wOBA and Castro has a .457. Both guys also have ISO’s over .300 against southpaws this season. If we look at pitch selection, Smyly throws his sinker more than 40% of the time vs. righties. Both guys also crush lefty sinkers.

Another bat in this lineup that crushes lefty sinkers is Carlos Santana. Santana has a .438 wOBA vs. them over the past few years. He’s also coming into this one as the Pirates’ best hitter over the last week. He’s 7 for 23 over the last week with 2 bombs and a .929 OPS. Other bats I like here will be Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Only Joe, Castro, and Santana are priorities here for me though.

Other stacks I like tonight will be the Cubs vs. Bido and the Astros vs. Max Scherzer. Scherzer has been a huge disappointment and is coming off an embarrassing out vs. the Yankees.

MLB DFS Summary

My favorite stack in the Reds tonight carries some weather risk. There’s a potential for a PPD there, but if they play, they have a ton of upside. This has the makings for an odd slate tonight. A handful of pitchers carry modest risk of blowing up, but can also dominate the team they playing.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (June 9)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s full-slate Friday. Tonight we have a massive 13-game slate of MLB DFS. While this slate is lacking the top-tier aces, it does provide us with pitchers that have been pitching at or near ace level at non-ace level price. At first glance, this looks to be a fun slate with a healthy amount of options both on the pitching front and stacking front.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Tyler Wells vs. Kansas City Royals

The Baltimore Orioles and Tyler Wells get to take on a bad Kansas City Royals team tonight. Wells for his part has been very good. Over the past month, Wells has an ERA of 3.49, while striking out nearly 35% of the batters he’s faced. He’s coming into this having been over 23 DK in 3 of his last 5 outings and hasn’t been in single digits since all the way back in April. He’s been one of the Orioles better this season and his price is just $8.3k tonight on DK.

He’ll face a Royals lineup that has a 26% K rate vs. righties this season and just a .150 ISO. Anything can happen on any given day, but I really like the spot for Wells tonight and he’ll be a lock in all of my lineups.

Shohei Ohtani vs. Seattle Mariners

Shohei Ohtani is coming into this one on the heels of one of his poorest performances in America. Last time out he faced the Astros and the start just didn’t go well. He allowed 5 ER in his 6 innings of work and struck out just 6. I’m going to give him a pass because it’s the Houston Astros and they are one of the top lineups in all of baseball.

Tonight he gets a much easier task as he’ll face off against a very disappointing Seattle Mariners lineup. This is a lineup that strikes out a ton which presents us with a ton of upside from Ohtani. The Mariners are striking out nearly 26% of the time vs. righties this season. Look for Ohtani to have a nice bounce-back game tonight and end up as one of the top-performing pitchers.

Other pitchers that have my interest tonight are going to be Marcus Stroman vs. San Francisco, Christian Javier vs. Cleveland, and Gerrit Cole vs. Boston. Going with a Stroman/Wells combo tonight very well could net you close to 50 points. At a combined $17k, you really can’t ask for more than that.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Dick Moutain – AKA Rich Hill

The New York Mets are coming off as disappointing of a series as they’ve had in a number of years. They blew 3-run leads in consecutive games. The good news for us is that this wasn’t related to their bats, but their pitching. Their bats have come alive as they just put 19 runs against a very good Atlanta Braves pitching staff.

They’ll have the luxury of facing off against a pitcher tonight that is about 5 years past his expiration date. Rich Hill is no longer the pitcher that he once was and the Mets should be able to get to him tonight. Hill has struggled against righties this season and the Mets will more than likely have 7-8 righties in the lineup tonight, well as long as Buck doesn’t play Daniel Vogelbach.

I’m going to start my Mets stack off with 2 of their youngsters, and that’s Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos. Alvarez in his short time in the big leagues is making a strong case for Rookie of the Year. He belted another 2 homers last night, bringing his season total to 11. He’s also up to 23 RBI on the year. The Mets haven’t had a backstop with this offensive prowess since the days of Mike Piazza.

I’m also willing to take a shot at Vientos. He did struggle last night, going 0-5 with 3 K’s. He should have an easier showing tonight vs. Hill and he was a lefty crusher in the minors. Both of these guys have home run potential tonight. I also want to add Francisco Lindor, Mark Canha, and Starling Marte to this stack. After starting out the season slow, Marte’s bat is really coming around and he should put up a big night vs. the aging veteran in Hill.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jordan Montgomery

We may start seeing the Reds in this stacking spot more often. They are no longer the punching bag that they were for the last few seasons. They have punch, they have spunk, and they have an attitude that says they just won’t give up in games. They’ll get to face off against a pitcher that is just 2-7 on the year and has struggled over the last month.

e’s pitched to an ERA of 5.76 over his last 25 innings of work. Montgomery has struggled vs. righties this season as they have a .351 wOBA vs. him and a .212 ISO. He’ll face a lineup that will consist of all righties tonight. That sets up extremely poorly for him.

We’ve seen so far what Elly De La Cruz can do as a lefty. Tonight we’ll see what he can do as a righty bat. If it’s anything like he’s done as a lefty, we’re in for a huge treat tonight! He’ll be a lock in my lineup when I stack the Reds and tonight will be no different.

I’ll look to build around him with guys like Matt McLain, Kevin Newman, and Spencer Steer. All 3 of these guys have crushed lefties this season. The only one of the 3 without a wOBA over .400 vs. lefties is Steer and he is at .392. We can also add guys like Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson to this stack. This is becoming a pretty lineup and one that we’ll want to use often, especially in matchups like they have tonight.

I also really like the Twins tonight vs. Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi hasn’t been overly sharp over the last month. Twins have a shot to put up a big number tonight. Other stacks I like are the Yankees vs. Whitlock, Pirates vs. Tylor Megill (game stack), and Dodgers vs. Ranger Suarez.

MLB DFS Summary

This is shaping up to be a fun slate. We finally have both options on the mound and for stacking.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (June 7)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Wednesday and we actually have a large main slate of MLB DFS. Tonight brings us 10 games of MLB DFS to navigate through. We have some top pitchers in tough spots and some above average pitchers in good spots. It may be a night to hang out in the mid-tier of pitching as the top ones give plenty of risk. We also have some solid spots for offense.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Jon Gray vs. St. Louis Cardinals

With news breaking yesterday that Jacob deGrom will need season-ending TJ surgery, the Rangers are going to need someone to step into the ace role. Luckily for them, they have 2 guys that have been performing at an ace level all year, one of those being Jon Gray. Gray has been outstanding of late. Over the last month, Gray has pitched to an insane .79 ERA. Now we can’t expect that to last, especially against a good Cardinals lineup. That said, there aren’t many indicators that are screaming that Gray is due for massive regression.

He’s doing a good job of keeping the contact at a minimum as hitters have just a 73% contact rate vs. him. He’s also done a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark as he’s surrendered just 2 homers over his last 34 innings of work. Gray’s been an ace and I’m willing to take the risk with him today against the Cardinals with his price being just $8.9k.

Jamie Barria vs. Chicago Cubs

Jamie Barria threw a season-high 90 pitches in his last outing vs. the White Sox and boy was he impressive. He went 5 innings, striking out 6 and giving up just 1 ER. His outing was good enough for 21 DK points. While the Chicago Cubs are a bit better than their cross-town rivals, they haven’t been that much better of late. The Cubs offense over the last week has been essentially dormant.

Outside of their 7-run outburst, they’ve been shut out twice and scored 1 run once. They’re also striking out 34% of the time over the last week. I’m willing to roll the dice tonight with Barria as he’s shown the ability to get guys out consistently and has been rather dominant on the mound. It also helps that he’s just $7k tonight on DK.

I don’t mind either guy in the Mets/Braves game tonight. That game should be low-scoring tonight, strikeouts may be at a minimum though because neither team strikes out that much. I also don’t mind Logan Webb tonight, even though the game is in Colorado. He’s a groundball pitcher so that should help pitching in Colorado.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Los Angeles Angels vs. Jameson Taillon

James Taillon shocked the world in his last outing by allowing just 1 ER against the San Diego Padres. Up until then, he had allowed at least 4 ER in 4 consecutive starts. A new streak starts today! If we look at the start against the Padres, he benefited from an extremely lucky BABIP of just .176.

You can’t expect to put that many balls in play and they all get caught. I’m hoping for the return of the old Taillon tonight against the Angels. The priority here with the Angels will be the lefties. Taillon has been way worse against them, by a significant margin.

Knowing that I’m going to load up on Shohei Ohtani tonight. He has multiple home run potential tonight in this matchup. His $6.1k price tag is a bit prohibitive, but he has as much upside as anyone in the game. Other lefties in this lineup I’ll look to include tonight will be Matt Thaiss and Jared Walsh. Both guys are sub $3k and will make paying for Ohtani that much easier.

Don’t shy away from the righties here either. If Taillon struggles, we’ll get to the Cubs bullpen early. Trout, Ward, and Drury would be the other main targets here that I’d like to include in my stack.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Noah Syndergaard

At one point, the New York Mets had a trio of starters named Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. They were as dominant of a threesome of pitchers as there was in the game. This was only 8 years ago and all 3 were in their 20’s. Now, Harvey is retired, deGrom is facing TJ surgery at the age of 35 after years of injuries, and Noah Syndergaard is a shell of the pitcher that got him the nickname Thor.

Syndergaard is now a pitcher we can regularly stack against. Over the last month, he’s pitched to an ERA that’s pushing 7 and has allowed 5 homers in just 21 innings of work. Hitters have a nearly 43% hard-hit rate vs. him and an 84% contact rate. He no longer has the swing-and-miss stuff. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits vs. Thor.

I’m starting this stack with the top prospect in baseball, Elly De La Cruz. He absolutely annihilated pitches last night in his debut. In just one game, he already has the hardest-hit ball of any Reds player this season. His combination of speed and power is going to be something that will be extremely fun to watch as he grows into the player he will be. He’s also just $2.7k on DK.

Other bats I also like here will be Spencer Steer, Jake Freely, and Matt McLain. The future for the once-storied franchise appears bright again. Reds fans have fun, you’ve deserved it after the last decade of duds.

Other stacks I also like today are the Dodgers vs. Williamson, Yankees vs. Lance Lynn, and Giants vs. Connor Seabold if rain doesn’t cancel the game in Colorado. A complete game stack of the Reds/Dodgers game is very much in play tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

Pitching is blah today, but hitting is plenty. I’m not going to force the top priced arms today because they carry risk.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday – 08/29

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Before we dive into the pitchers I should say pitching is a dumpster fire today. All pitchers have some level of risk, some more than others. We’re void of any true ace.

Dylan Cease ($9.3k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Lynn for all intents and purposes was a let down last night. He gave up 7 ER in just 5 innings of work w/ most of the damage a grand slam to Ortego. Lynn also managed 7 strike outs in the 5 innings of work. With pitchers in DFS we chase strike outs and that’s what we’re going to do here with Cease.

Over the past month Cease has a near 34% K rate. No pitcher on today’s slate has the strike out ability that Cease has and at his price he’s not going to break the bank. One of Cease’s main strike out pitches is his slider.

If we look at the projected lineup for the Cubs only Duffy has a whiff rate less than 30% and it’s at 28%. If Cease’s slider is on point today he stands to have a ceiling type game.

Tyler Mahle ($9.6k) vs. Miami Marlins – Yes, the Marlins were able to get to Gutierrez early yesterday. After the first inning though they managed just 1 more run the entire game.

With Mahle we’re getting a pitcher that also has some K upside as his K rate is 28.5% over the past month. He’s also been doing a great job of limited the hard contact with a 24% hard hit rate.

Mahle is another guy that relies on his slider pretty heavily. If it’s on today, he too should have a ceiling game. Everyone in the projected lineup for the Marlins has a whiff rate greater than 30% against sliders. This is a good spot for Mahle today.

Ranger Suarez ($6.8K) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – If you want to save on pitching today the only guy that really peaks my interest is Suarez. He has continued to ramp up the pitch count and got it all the way up to 99 against the Rays with a dominant 7K performance.

While I don’t know if we see that many K’s again, I do like him to easily pay off his salary. He has one of the heaviest sinkers in the game as he induces a very nice groundball rate of 69%. With so many groundballs he’s really done a great job of limiting damage from the opposing team and with a weak Diamondbacks I don’t see why it won’t happen again today.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Spencer Watkins – The Rays have been somewhat of a disappointment the last couple of days. With DFS I’ve learned if you are riding a team and they’ve disappointed you need to keep riding them. The day you stop is the day they explode. Today, they explode.

Watkins has not been good. Over the last month he has a 5.19 xFIP and a near 38% hard hit rate. He’s given up 10 barrels in just 21 innings of work.

I’m going to start my Rays stack with Brandon Lowe ($3.9k). While he’s been a bit of a disappointment this week, some of it has been a string of bad luck as he has a .154 BABIP this week.

He’s on the verge of a breakout again and I do believe it’s today vs. a fastball throwing Watkins. Lowe has a near .700 slugging % vs. fastballs and this is a great spot for him today.

The other two guys I’ll be focused on here are Yandy Diaz ($3k) and Wander Franco ($3.9k). The are the hottest hitters on Tampa right with both having OPS’s this week around the .900 mark.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jesus Luzardo – Luzardo is another attackable arm. Since his arrival in Miami he has been…not good.

He’s been especially wild as his zone % is just 36% and his first strike % is 51.8%. What that essentially means is he’s getting behind on almost every hitter and hitters are in hitter’s counts.

Luzardo’s been splits neutral meaning he’s been dreadful to both sides of the plate. The guy I want to start my Reds stack is with ROY candidate Jonathan India ($3.6k).

He has a .250 ISO against lefties in the month of August. He should set the table today for the Reds today. Other guys I want in this match up are guys that project well against sinkers.

Joe Votto ($3.8k), Nick Castellanos ($4.2k), and Kyle Farmer ($2.9k) all have slugging %’s of .590 or greater against them this year. This all sets up very poorly for Luzardo.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Griffin Jax – Regression caught up with Jax in his last outing. He had been skating by with a ton of luck and the Red Sox were that team that broke the good luck. Look for the Brewers to continue the trend today.

Over the last month Jax has a ton of poor indicators. He has a 43% hard hit rate, a 48% fly ball rate, and a 9 barrels. Batters are teeing off on him and it’s just been a matter of the balls not find a glove. In his last start not only did the balls finally start to find the holes, 3 of them left the yard.

Jax has been pretty bad to both sides of the plate, but he’s been especially bad against lefties with a .324 ISO against. The two guys I’m really interested in here are Rowdy Tellez ($2.6k) and Omar Narvaez ($2.7k).

Over the last 30 days both guys have been hitting righties pretty hard. Tellez with a 55% rate and Narvaez at 42%. They are also cheap and we’ve paid a ton in salary with the Rays and Reds. These guys are going to help us afford the more expensive bats. Wong ($3.5k) and Adames ($3k) are also pieces here I’m very interested in.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is not easy today. All pitchers, including the ones in the ace arena, have some caution flags. My bats will be anchored around the Rays/Reds combo and I’ll be sure to grab the couple of cheap Brewers pieces. All three of those lineups are set up to have great days.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday, August 07

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Saturday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.

Tonight’s slate brings us a whole slew of options on the mound ranging from the top all the way to middle range. We have 4 pitchers at or near $10k tonight and I’m going to be honest, outside of Julio Urias ($10.5k) I don’t like any of them.

Garcia ($10.3k) rarely goes long and if I’m paying top dollar for a pitcher I want to see them go deep to maximize their salary. Yu Darvish ($10.1k) has really struggled over the past month. I’m not paying that much for a pitcher that hasn’t reached 20 DK points in a month and a half.

Brandon Woodruff ($9.9k) has a tough match up. Burnes, who has greater K upside, only struck out 5 Giants last night. Giants aren’t a team I like attacking with pitching, especially at almost $10k. The two guys that have my focus tonight are Charlie Morton ($9.4k) against the Washington Nationals and Eli Morgan ($7.4k) against the Detroit Tigers.

Lets start with Morton. We want to chase ceilings in GPP’s with our pitchers. With Morton, I’m going to do that, but I also know that Morton gives us a pretty high floor. Over the past 2.5 months Morton has scored less than 15 DK points just twice.

I like that safety net, especially with how volatile pitching is these days. Over the past month Morton has been very solid. He has a 28% K rate with just a 3.64 xFIP. Look for him to continue his solid ways tonight.

I should preface this with saying that Eli Morgan is far from a safe pick. He’s my high risk/high reward pitcher tonight. In GPP’s we don’t play it safe and we definitely aren’t here. Eli Morgan has been pitching much better of late.

In his last 3 outings he faced 3 very tough teams in the Athletics, Astros, and Blue Jays and came away unscathed. He actually had his best outing of his career against the Blue Jays with 9 strike outs in 6 innings of work. Morgan gives us K upside.

On the year he has a 26% K rate but over the past month has really turned up a notch with a near 31% K rate. He’s facing a Tigers lineup tonight that has been struggling of late. Over the past week no team has struck out more than them. Far from safe, but a ton of upside for Morgan tonight.

One of the reasons I went with pitchers I did was because I want a piece of the Reds lineups tonight and they are expensive. The Reds have scored 17 runs so far in this series against the Pirates and with a match up tonight against Mitch Keller I don’t expect them to slow down.

Keller has not had a good campaign this year. His xFIP is sitting above 5.37 with just a 21% K rate. Keller’s splits are pretty neutral as he gives up power to both sides. I do want to focus on the lefties though as he strikes them out less and gives up a bit more hard contact.

Winker ($6.3k) and Votto ($6.1k) have both crushed righties this year with ISO’s over .300. They are expensive, but are set up to have a field day today against Keller. Rookie of the year candidate India ($5k) and Farmer ($4.2k) are also guys I want to get from this stack. They are both locked in at the plate and will surely be part of any offense the Reds have tonight.

So we have a ton of expensive hitters so far, how can we afford them? Enter the Cleveland Indians. Over the past 30 days Tyler Alexander has an xFIP approaching 7. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact at 43% and his fly ball rate is nearing 60%.

With Alexander we really want to grab some righties as that’s where his struggles are. He’s given up a .374 wOBA and .242 ISO to righties this year. That’s not good. While Rosario ($4.3k) is great, he’s going to be tough to fit in with some of the Reds we’ve taken. I’m focused on Myles Straw ($2.3k), Harold Ramirez ($2.5k), and Austin Hedges ($2.3k). They all have the platoon advantage and provide us a ton of salary relief that we’ll need tonight to fit in the explosive Reds lineup.

The final spot I’m looking to for offense tonight is in Coors with the Colorado Rockies. Jesus Luzardo’s biggest weakness is batters from the right side of the plate. His wOBA balloons up to .385 against them and DK did not price up the righties in this match up. Rodgers ($3.8k), Cron ($4.1k), and Diaz ($4k) are all mispriced for the environment and match up.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Tonight’s pitching has a bunch of land mines at the top tonight. I’m going to shy away from there and live with guys like Charlie Morton and Eli Morgan. Offense I’ll be looking to go with a hot Reds lineup and then sprinkle in some cheap Indians and Rockies.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 6/15

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

At first glance the pitching tonight is not much better, but after looking at the data we have a few pitchers that are in decent spots. We also have my 3 favorite pitchers to pick on – the law firm of Harvey, Happ, and Chi Chi.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Mike Minor ($8.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Tigers teed off on Keller last night. Tonight they face a much more daunting task as they face off against Mike Minor. Over the past 30 days Minor has been very good. His K rate is nearly 30% and his xFIP and ERA pretty much align in the mid 3’s.

His match-up with Tigers is a good one. While the Tigers have shown flashes of being a half decent offense recently, they’re still striking out a ton. They have a 30% K rate vs. lefties with a .123 ISO. Both those numbers indicate they have a rough time against lefties.

Minor has already faced the Tigers twice this year with a combined 17 K’s. Really like the spot here for Minor and his less than $9k salary will leave us room to get some of the bigger bats that will be in play.

Taijuan Walker ($8k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Walker has become one of the steals of the offseason. He’s shown flashes of brilliance this year with his best outing coming against the Orioles last week.

His K rate over the past 30 days is hovering around 27% and his xFIP is below 4. So we are getting a pitcher with a more than halfway decent K rate at only $8k.

His match-up isn’t half bad either. On the year the Cubs are striking out at around the 25% mark. While they have some guys with pop, they’re still a very weak lineup compared to years past. Vegas has the Mets as a big favorite today. I’m going to agree with them and try to work Walker into my lineup.

Hyun Jin Ryu ($8.5k) vs. New York Yankees – The Yankees have really underwhelmed against lefties this year. We’ve seen them get dominated by the likes of Matz, Skubal, Yarbrough, and Hill.

Ryu has had a couple of difficult outings in a row. In his last 2 outings he’s only had 4 K’s. He faced really tough lineups in those game, facing off against the White Sox and Astros. This is a great bounce back spot for him.

He faced the Yankees earlier this year and walked away with 7 K’s in 6 innings of work. While facing the Yankees is never 100% safe, attacking them with lefties this year hasn’t been a bad strategy. I wouldn’t go all in with Ryu, but this is a good spot for him.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Much like last night, we have a healthy amount of offenses in really good spots today. I made the decision early on yesterday to fade the Coors game. I didn’t like the match-up that either team had. Today’s a different story.

The Padres have a great match-up vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez. He’s arguably one of the worst pitchers in baseball. They are priced up for the match-up though. Tatis ($5k) is the most expensive you’ll typically see a batter on FD. You really couldn’t have asked for a better match-up for the Padres in Coors.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Brett Anderson – The Reds get to take on a sinker ball pitcher today in Anderson. We know they have a handful of guys in their lineup that excel vs. this pitch.

Castellanos ($4.3k), Stephenson ($2.6k), and Suarez ($3.1k) all have ISO’s over .200 against this pitch from lefties. This should be a tough day for Anderson who has been pretty bad this year. He has a 5.19 xFIP this year and a 50% hard hit rate. Reds are going to be one of my main targets tonight.

Seattle Mariners vs. J.A. Happ – When Happ is on the mound the batters from the other team automatically enter my player pool. He’s been absolutely awful this year. His xFIP is almost 6. We’re halfway through June. His xFIP being that high is not based on a bad outing or two, but a full season worth of bad outings.

I’m going to focus on the righties here because that’s really where Happ struggles. His FB rate vs. righties is 48% and his hard hit rate is 40%. He’s giving up a ton of bad contact to righties. The guys you want to look at are Haniger ($3k) and France ($2.6k). If you also need a cheap 2B, you could do a lot worse than the spot that Moore ($2.4k) is in. Mariners tonight will make a nice compliment to your Reds or Padres stack.

Cleveland Indians vs. Matt Harvey – Of all the pitchers on the hill today, no one is giving up homers at a quicker pace than Harvey has over the past 30 days. He’s given up 7 in just 15.1 innings of work.

To start the year it really seemed that Harvey had figured out a new way to pitch. If we look at recent outings, we know that was just a mirage. Harvey is giving up a 44% FB rate to lefties and a 40% hard hit rate. I’m going to focus my attack of Harvey today on the middle of the lineup since that where the lefties sit.

JRam ($4.1k), Eddie Rosario ($2.8k), and Bradley ($3.4k) should have a field day today. Well at least in the first inning since I don’t think Harvey lasts longer than 3-4 innings.

Another gas can that we can attack today is Tyler Anderson vs. the Nationals. Think Zimmerman ($2.6k) and Treat Turner ($3.6k) as Anderson is far worse against righties. Giants lefties vs. Martin is also an exploitable spot. Martin is giving up a 60% hard hit rate to lefties. Brandon Crawford ($2.9k) is way too cheap for that match-up and what he potentially brings to the table every game. Same could be said for Yastrzemski ($2.7k).

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Just like last night, there’s a ton of offense to go around tonight. Pitching, IMO, is a bit better tonight as the above average pitchers are in better positions to succeed.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 4/25 (Fanduel Main Slate)

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have an 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

This slate has a few solid pitchers that are in really good spots that we can take advantage of. There are also some hitting spots that, although aren’t super clear, I think we can also take advantage of.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Danny Duffy ($8.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Duffy has been really good this year. Although his xFIP indicates there will be some regression from his .5 ERA, none of his underlying stats indicate it’s going to come anytime soon. For the season, Tigers have a 32.7% k rate vs. lefties. Although that number is really enticing, the number that stands out the most to me that indicates this is one of your safer avenues today is that their team ISO vs. lefties is only .09. They’re just not getting much done vs. lefties this year.

Now let’s circle back to Duffy and why I don’t think the regression is coming today. When giving up contact this year, he’s just not letting batters square him up. His soft hit rate is 22.9% and his hard hit rate is only 29.2%. The low hard hit rate plus low team ISO for the Tigers has me really loving this matchup.

Jameson Taillon ($7.2k) vs. Cleveland Indians – Really like this spot for Taillon today. The Indians haven’t been great against righties this season. They have a 26% k rate, a team wOBA of .279, and a team ISO of .153. This sets up well for Taillon who should see some positive regression today. His xFIP is a 1.3 runs lower than his 5.4 ERA. This season, he’s been K’ing more than 10 batters per 9 innings while really limiting his walks with only 1.35 per 9. The one area of concern for me with Taillon is that he’s a fly ball pitcher. One or two of those flyballs hit hard and this game can be completely different for him.

Taijuan Walker ($7.7k) vs. Washington Nationals – Walker has been a steal for the Mets so far this season. They signed him late in free agency and all he’s done is deal! Nationals broke out yesterday but I don’t think that happens 2 days in a row. Walker has a 12.21 k/9 this season. He’s been doing this by fooling batters. Batters are only swinging at 55% of his pitches in the zone. And when they do swing at pitches in the zone against him, they’re only making contact 74% of the time. Both great metrics. This Nationals lineup really takes a hit with Soto on the IL so I fully expect Walker to take advantage of it today.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Boston Red Sox vs. Nick Margevicius – I should warn you that weather may play a factor in this game. Actually, there’s a good chance it does. But if they play, this is a lineup I want a part of. Margevicius has been giving up a ton of hard contact this year at nearly 40%. He also hasn’t been missing many bats with a 7% whiff rate. Red Sox have a team wOBA of .335 vs. lefties this season. The two plays that really stand out here are JD Martinez ($4.3k) and Xander Bogaerts ($3.4k). Both have a wOBA vs. lefties of more than .400 since 2019. 2 other guys I really like in this matchup are Hernandez ($3k) and Vazquez ($2.7k) if he plays.

Chicago White Sox vs. Kohei Arihara – I will continue to stack against Arihara until it works for me. Arihara continues to give up a ton of contact, and hard contact. His whiff rate is low at 7.5% and his hard hit rate is 44.1%. He’s also given up 8 barrels this year. At some point, regression is going to come his way and I want to be a part of it. His xFIP is almost 2 runs higher than his ERA. It’s coming folks. Join me for the ride. 1-4 of the White Sox are underrated vs. righties. People think White Sox, they think attack against lefties. Anderson ($4k) has a .353 wOBA vs. righties since 2019, Eaton ($3.4k) .345, Moncada ($3.1k) .351 with a .209 ISO, and Abreu ($3.5K) .341 with a .229 ISO. W/ the Red Sox game being at risk, this is my favorite stack of the day.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jack Flaherty – I normally wouldn’t stack against Flaherty, but I really like the Reds today. Flaherty throws is his fastball more than 48% of the time to lefties (and righties). 1-4 of the Reds all eat this pitch up. Winker ($3.9k) has a .431 cxwoba, Castellanos ($3.7k) .571, Votto ($3k) .482, and Suarez ($3.3k) .536. This isn’t a safe play by any means but I don’t think many people go here today. Reds have an implied run total of only 3.34 today. That’s really light in my opinion.

MLB DFS Aces and Bases Wrap Up

Today’s going to be a fun slate. There are no clear paths to victory and those are the days I enjoy the most and also the days where added research can help you over take your opponents.

As is always the case on Sunday, make sure you are checking lineups. Often a sit day for players w/ it being getaway day. Weather will play a factor today. Keep an eye on potentially delays/ppd risks.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/28 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks: A long road home

6 years ago

written by

It is hard to believe this 9/28 MLB DFS slate is the second to last regular season day of MLB. My Dodgers have things firmly in hand, and my hopes of a Dodgers-Yankees World Series are well alive. When each season winds down it leaves me with a feeling of both sadness, and relief. This is a tradition I have watched unfold now for over forty years, and each one leaves me with tears in my eyes, even as a grown man.

With everything pretty much said and done, all the players today are basically playing for personal glory. This makes pitching extremely tough to nail down. The biggest advice I can give to you today is play light and save your bankroll for NFL DFS. Today truly is a crap shoot. So, with Mindset “Leave No Doubt” playing in the background, I bring you my last MLB DFS regular season pitching article.

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On the Defense

I have no clue what is going on tonight with the Tigers atWhite Sox. The pitching option is not available on FD, but has Reynaldo Lopez slatedto start on DK, even though everything I have seen has him slated to pitch theday game. Keep on eye on this one.

JustinVerlander vs. Los Angeles Angels

$11,400 FD / $12,800 DK

My confidence in Verlander’s competitiveness drives this 9/28 MLB DFS play. The Angels with Mike Trout were not the scariest team on most nights, and without him is anything but. Over the last seven days the other guys from Los Angeles are batting a .221 with a pathetic wRC+ of 68. Even Justin’s sub-par numbers versus the Angels this season are better than most pitchers’ good ones. With question marks all over the board tonight he has the highest upside.

RobbieRay vs. San Diego Padres

$9,300 FD / $10,600 DK

With the Padres striking out 24.8 percent of the time versusLHPs Robbie Ray is a fully loaded 9/28 MLB DFS option. Ray may have allowed fourearned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last outing facing San Diego, but he alsohad 10 strikeouts. Even with a negative ballpark shift in Arizona, for thediscount from Verlander, I would have no fear of using him in both cash gamesand GPPs.

BrettAnderson vs. Seattle Mariners

$6,700 FD / $7,200 DK

The Seattle Mariners are striking out 24.7 percent of the time versus LHPs this season. Anderson also over his last nine starts has only allowed more than three earned runs once. Seattle over the last seven days is striking out 28.7 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 32 while batting .177. I cannot think of a better time to attack them than on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate.

ReynaldoLopez vs. Detroit Tigers

$6,700 DK

As earlier mentioned, I am not 100 percent sure Lopez is starting the night game, but DK does have him listed. The not so mighty Tigers are striking out 26.5 percent of the time versus RHPs while coming in 30^th in MLB in both wOBA and wRC+. His last two starts facing Detroit did not go as well as hoped, but he has had major success versus this lineup in the past. I sure hope he pitches on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate because I would love to pair him with Anderson freeing up a ton of salary to spend on hitting tonight.

Name	Team	W	L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Justin Verlander	Astros	20	6	217	11.94	1.74	1.41	36.60%	15.50%	2.53	3.24
Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	12	8	168	12.03	4.33	1.5	37.80%	19.20%	4.28	3.81
Brett Anderson	Athletics	12	9	171	4.58	2.53	1.05	54.40%	13.60%	4	4.83
Reynaldo Lopez	White Sox	9	15	176	8.18	3.27	1.74	34.90%	13.90%	5.57	5.39

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On theAttack

We have a Coors Field game on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate, and a lot ownership is going to head towards facing a lefty in Colorado. We do however have a few other sweet stacking options at lower prices.

JamesMarvel vs. Cincinnati Reds

Talk about a gift on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate. James will do anything but Marvel regardless of who he is facing. In his first three starts he has allowed 14 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. The beauty is they let him keep pitching. With nothing to lose at this point I see that trend continuing tonight.

Reds vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Eugenio Suarez	496	7.50%	28.00%	0.27	1	0.372	127
Aristides Aquino	161	6.20%	24.80%	0.25	6	0.358	118
Joey Votto	425	12.50%	18.60%	0.67	3	0.35	113
Derek Dietrich	279	10.00%	23.30%	0.43	1	0.348	111
Josh VanMeter	226	11.50%	21.20%	0.54	7	0.327	98
Tucker Barnhart	306	12.10%	22.20%	0.54	0	0.319	93
Curt Casali	133	9.00%	27.80%	0.32	0	0.314	89
Freddy Galvis	406	6.20%	26.40%	0.23	2	0.31	91
Jose Iglesias	395	3.00%	14.20%	0.21	6	0.303	82
Nick Senzel	304	7.20%	28.30%	0.26	8	0.294	77
Phillip Ervin	159	6.30%	27.70%	0.23	3	0.279	66
Michael Lorenzen	32	9.40%	28.10%	0.33	4	0.272	62
Kyle Farmer	122	3.30%	33.60%	0.1	0	0.26	54
Jose Peraza	279	2.90%	16.10%	0.18	4	0.254	50

Garrett Richardsvs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Talk about a terrible comeback. Richards has allowed sevenearned runs over 5 1/3 innings since his return. Four of them earned runs werein his last start facing this same Diamondbacks team, but the last time was inSan Diego. Tonight, he is heading to Arizona and a negative park shift. The D’Backsare in full play on this 9/28 MLB DFS Slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Ketel Marte	454	10.10%	14.10%	0.72	8	0.404	150
Abraham Almonte	33	15.20%	24.20%	0.63	0	0.399	147
Kevin Cron	57	5.30%	33.30%	0.16	0	0.341	109
Christian Walker	423	9.00%	27.00%	0.33	7	0.341	109
Eduardo Escobar	491	8.60%	18.90%	0.45	4	0.335	105
Alex Avila	162	19.80%	34.60%	0.57	1	0.331	102
Domingo Leyba	26	15.40%	30.80%	0.5	0	0.326	98
Wilmer Flores	172	6.40%	10.50%	0.61	0	0.325	98
Tim Locastro	150	4.70%	14.70%	0.32	16	0.318	94
Adam Jones	357	5.90%	19.00%	0.31	2	0.311	89
Nick Ahmed	460	8.00%	19.30%	0.42	7	0.297	80
Carson Kelly	261	12.30%	21.80%	0.56	0	0.296	79
Jarrod Dyson	395	10.60%	18.50%	0.58	29	0.274	65
Jake Lamb	194	12.90%	24.20%	0.53	1	0.271	63
Josh Rojas	115	9.60%	25.20%	0.38	2	0.262	57
Ildemaro Vargas	156	5.10%	13.50%	0.38	1	0.261	56
Caleb Joseph	32	3.10%	21.90%	0.14	0	0.208	22

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The reality is Mike Foltynewicz has been incredible lately, and I am also sure that a ton of DFS writers are putting him out there today. My rule as a DFS writer is simple, if I am not going to use a player in my lineup, I will not include them in my article. But he is in a great spot, I just smell regression. Folty has only had eight strikeouts once this season, back on May 31st facing the Tigers. Under all the way.

Steven Matz has achieved these number a few times this season facing the Braves. With everything well in hand for Atlanta, I see some bench playing time today. Over all the way.

The Padres are among the league leaders in strikeouts versus LHPs, this is not a good thing for them. Robbie Ray has a 12.0 K/9, which is a very good thing for him. Over all the way.

Richards will be lucky enough to survive three innings tonight before being sent to the showers. Under.

A word if I may. Thank you to my beautiful wife Jennifer for taking my hand in marriage six years ago today. You put up with endless sports on the TV, loud and obnoxious hardcore music, and my grumpiness on a daily basis. I love you and hope we have many more years together. Happy Anniversary.

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6 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/16 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

6 years ago

written by

This 9/16 MLB DFS slate is small but extremely appetizing. Any time we have an implied total of 13.5 runs in any MLB game it becomes a clear indicator of where all the ownership is going to be directed. The problem is, we also have some excellent SP1 options tonight. So, with the new Sect LP playing in the background, I bring you today’s pitching picks.

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On theDefense

Salary is a huge issue on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, we haveseveral top priced starters with little in the way of mid-tier value. This isgoing to make stacking Coors Field tough unless you take some serious chances.

StephenStrasburg vs. St. Louis Cardinals

$10,400 FD / $11,800 DK

There is little question that Strasburg is the top pitchingoption for this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. The Cardinals are striking out 22.5 percentof the time versus RHPs with a wOBA of .313. The last time “The Stras” faced St.Louis he had nine strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run.If you are going to spend tonight, here is where to look for the highest Kupside.

JoseBerrios vs. Chicago White Sox

$8,500 FD / $10,200 DK

At times I am baffled with the price differences between thesites on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. For $8,500 tonight on FD Berrios is a highupside option at a bargain price. On DK I have to say “No way Jose” outside oflarge field GPPs. Regardless, the White Sox are striking out 25.7 percent ofthe time versus RHPs with a low .312 wOBA. This season Berrios is 3-1 versusthe Sox with a 3.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 27 innings. Love the matchup,hate he is not cheaper on DK.

DakotaHudson vs. Washington Nationals

$8,600 FD / $8,100 DK

Sniffing out the third pitching option on this 9/16 MLB DFSslate was like threading a needle with fat fingers. Although I do like TannerRoark versus the Royals, that $9,300 price tag on DK scared me away. Robbie Rayseemed like another option with great numbers versus Miami, like everyone else.But that blister issue is one where it seems prudent to hold back the cash fora start while we wait and see. Remember Rich Hill’s blister?

The clear choice seems to be Hudson. On FD I prefer Berrios, but on DK here is your best SP2 option at the price. The Nationals are 10^th in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and on the lower side of the strikeout world at 21.2 percent. Hudson, however, did strike out seven while only allowing one earned run over six innings in his only start facing the Nats this season. On a tricky 9/16 MLB DFS slate he is the shining star in a SP2 galaxy of dead planets.

Boom orBust

One possible matchup stands out to me on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate for an uber cheap SP2 option. The problem, of course, is he has serious potential to sink you as well. If you are not among the faint of heart this is for you.

PabloLopez vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

$6,700 FD / $5,500 DK

If you are playing on FD on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, you are better served spending up. The pricing is reasonable, and you can still fit some great bats in without taking this risk. On DK, it is a different world. The Diamondbacks are striking out at a lower 21.3 percent of the time facing RHPs with a low .306 wOBA. Over the last seven days they are batting a pathetic .167 with a wRC+ of 26. If memory serves me that is about the lowest wRC+ I can remember. Attacking a slumping team with a sub-par pitcher sometimes is like hitting the DFS jackpot, or the toilet.

Name	Team	W	L	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	17	6	10.79	2.31	1.04	50.10%	15.60%	3.49	3.2
Jose Berrios	Twins	12	8	8.6	2.29	1.19	42.10%	12.10%	3.63	4.38
Dakota Hudson	Cardinals	15	7	6.93	4.23	1.18	57.20%	21.20%	3.38	4.49
Pablo Lopez	Marlins	5	8	7.97	2.16	1.31	46.60%	15.90%	4.97	4.24

On theAttack

On this small 9/16 MLB DFS slate the attack options arequite limited with the volume of positive pitching matchups. The Mets / Rockiesgame is where the DFS world is looking so why not look elsewhere?

KevinGausman vs. Chicago Cubs

There is a bit of confusion here as to whether it is Sonny Gray, or Kevin Gausman starting tonight. The latest report I have is Gausman. Lucky for us the pricing is still adjusted to Gray. This means all the Cubs bats are discounted facing a pitcher with a 6.28 road ERA against one of the best hitting teams in baseball. On this 9/16 MLB DFS slate attack this with everything you got.

ChicagoCubs vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+
Nico Hoerner	26	11.50%	11.50%	0	0.423	0.565	0.988	0.402	149
Anthony Rizzo	443	12.40%	14.20%	4	0.413	0.541	0.954	0.4	147
Kris Bryant	477	9.90%	22.40%	3	0.375	0.516	0.891	0.375	131
Willson Contreras	290	9.70%	24.80%	1	0.359	0.528	0.886	0.368	127
Jason Heyward	440	12.50%	17.50%	8	0.37	0.488	0.859	0.359	121
David Bote	251	13.50%	24.70%	3	0.386	0.458	0.844	0.358	119
Victor Caratini	197	10.20%	22.30%	1	0.355	0.48	0.835	0.351	115
Kyle Schwarber	447	11.60%	25.10%	2	0.329	0.522	0.851	0.348	113
Nicholas Castellanos	505	5.50%	24.40%	2	0.321	0.49	0.811	0.338	108
Javier Baez	448	4.50%	27.90%	3	0.308	0.512	0.82	0.337	106
Robel Garcia	51	5.90%	39.20%	0	0.275	0.511	0.785	0.317	93
Ben Zobrist	109	11.00%	13.80%	0	0.358	0.347	0.705	0.311	89
Ian Happ	90	11.10%	22.20%	2	0.3	0.43	0.73	0.308	87
Jonathan Lucroy	215	9.30%	14.40%	0	0.33	0.378	0.708	0.308	91
Albert Almora Jr.	241	4.10%	16.20%	2	0.284	0.442	0.726	0.299	81

ColeHames vs. Cincinnati Reds

Cole Hamels was lit up in his only start this season facing the Reds allowing five earned runs over four innings. With cheap bats in need on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate there is a bevy of value to be found here on both sites tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs. LHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
Phillip Ervin	84	7.10%	20.20%	0.35	0	0.405	0.662	1.067	0.312	0.436	168
Aristides Aquino	43	7.00%	32.60%	0.21	1	0.372	0.667	1.039	0.359	0.423	160
Eugenio Suarez	143	17.50%	30.80%	0.57	2	0.406	0.574	0.98	0.296	0.401	145
Alex Blandino	24	25.00%	20.80%	1.2	0	0.417	0.278	0.694	0.056	0.332	101
Curt Casali	88	10.20%	19.30%	0.53	0	0.33	0.429	0.758	0.169	0.321	93
Freddy Galvis	183	1.60%	20.80%	0.08	2	0.295	0.422	0.717	0.139	0.302	85
Jose Peraza	100	7.00%	12.00%	0.58	2	0.32	0.376	0.696	0.108	0.3	80
Jose Iglesias	119	4.20%	10.10%	0.42	0	0.311	0.389	0.7	0.115	0.3	79
Joey Votto	163	11.00%	23.90%	0.46	2	0.344	0.322	0.665	0.07	0.299	79
Josh VanMeter	26	11.50%	30.80%	0.38	1	0.269	0.227	0.497	0.091	0.234	37
Derek Dietrich	25	0.00%	36.00%	0	0	0.24	0.217	0.457	0.043	0.211	21
Tucker Barnhart	49	12.20%	26.50%	0.46	1	0.245	0.163	0.408	0.023	0.188	6

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

With no interest in either sides of the plate tonight and two starting pitchers both capable of easily reaching these totals I am going with the over on both.

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