It is hard to believe this 9/28 MLB DFS slate is the second to last regular season day of MLB. My Dodgers have things firmly in hand, and my hopes of a Dodgers-Yankees World Series are well alive. When each season winds down it leaves me with a feeling of both sadness, and relief. This is a tradition I have watched unfold now for over forty years, and each one leaves me with tears in my eyes, even as a grown man.
With everything pretty much said and done, all the players today are basically playing for personal glory. This makes pitching extremely tough to nail down. The biggest advice I can give to you today is play light and save your bankroll for NFL DFS. Today truly is a crap shoot. So, with Mindset “Leave No Doubt” playing in the background, I bring you my last MLB DFS regular season pitching article.
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On the Defense
I have no clue what is going on tonight with the Tigers atWhite Sox. The pitching option is not available on FD, but has Reynaldo Lopez slatedto start on DK, even though everything I have seen has him slated to pitch theday game. Keep on eye on this one.
JustinVerlander vs. Los Angeles Angels
$11,400 FD / $12,800 DK
My confidence in Verlander’s competitiveness drives this 9/28 MLB DFS play. The Angels with Mike Trout were not the scariest team on most nights, and without him is anything but. Over the last seven days the other guys from Los Angeles are batting a .221 with a pathetic wRC+ of 68. Even Justin’s sub-par numbers versus the Angels this season are better than most pitchers’ good ones. With question marks all over the board tonight he has the highest upside.
RobbieRay vs. San Diego Padres
$9,300 FD / $10,600 DK
With the Padres striking out 24.8 percent of the time versusLHPs Robbie Ray is a fully loaded 9/28 MLB DFS option. Ray may have allowed fourearned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last outing facing San Diego, but he alsohad 10 strikeouts. Even with a negative ballpark shift in Arizona, for thediscount from Verlander, I would have no fear of using him in both cash gamesand GPPs.
BrettAnderson vs. Seattle Mariners
$6,700 FD / $7,200 DK
The Seattle Mariners are striking out 24.7 percent of the time versus LHPs this season. Anderson also over his last nine starts has only allowed more than three earned runs once. Seattle over the last seven days is striking out 28.7 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 32 while batting .177. I cannot think of a better time to attack them than on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate.
ReynaldoLopez vs. Detroit Tigers
$6,700 DK
As earlier mentioned, I am not 100 percent sure Lopez is starting the night game, but DK does have him listed. The not so mighty Tigers are striking out 26.5 percent of the time versus RHPs while coming in 30th in MLB in both wOBA and wRC+. His last two starts facing Detroit did not go as well as hoped, but he has had major success versus this lineup in the past. I sure hope he pitches on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate because I would love to pair him with Anderson freeing up a ton of salary to spend on hitting tonight.
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 20 | 6 | 217 | 11.94 | 1.74 | 1.41 | 36.60% | 15.50% | 2.53 | 3.24 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 12 | 8 | 168 | 12.03 | 4.33 | 1.5 | 37.80% | 19.20% | 4.28 | 3.81 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 12 | 9 | 171 | 4.58 | 2.53 | 1.05 | 54.40% | 13.60% | 4 | 4.83 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 9 | 15 | 176 | 8.18 | 3.27 | 1.74 | 34.90% | 13.90% | 5.57 | 5.39 |
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On theAttack
We have a Coors Field game on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate, and a lot ownership is going to head towards facing a lefty in Colorado. We do however have a few other sweet stacking options at lower prices.
JamesMarvel vs. Cincinnati Reds
Talk about a gift on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate. James will do anything but Marvel regardless of who he is facing. In his first three starts he has allowed 14 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. The beauty is they let him keep pitching. With nothing to lose at this point I see that trend continuing tonight.
Reds vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Eugenio Suarez | 496 | 7.50% | 28.00% | 0.27 | 1 | 0.372 | 127 |
| Aristides Aquino | 161 | 6.20% | 24.80% | 0.25 | 6 | 0.358 | 118 |
| Joey Votto | 425 | 12.50% | 18.60% | 0.67 | 3 | 0.35 | 113 |
| Derek Dietrich | 279 | 10.00% | 23.30% | 0.43 | 1 | 0.348 | 111 |
| Josh VanMeter | 226 | 11.50% | 21.20% | 0.54 | 7 | 0.327 | 98 |
| Tucker Barnhart | 306 | 12.10% | 22.20% | 0.54 | 0 | 0.319 | 93 |
| Curt Casali | 133 | 9.00% | 27.80% | 0.32 | 0 | 0.314 | 89 |
| Freddy Galvis | 406 | 6.20% | 26.40% | 0.23 | 2 | 0.31 | 91 |
| Jose Iglesias | 395 | 3.00% | 14.20% | 0.21 | 6 | 0.303 | 82 |
| Nick Senzel | 304 | 7.20% | 28.30% | 0.26 | 8 | 0.294 | 77 |
| Phillip Ervin | 159 | 6.30% | 27.70% | 0.23 | 3 | 0.279 | 66 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 32 | 9.40% | 28.10% | 0.33 | 4 | 0.272 | 62 |
| Kyle Farmer | 122 | 3.30% | 33.60% | 0.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 54 |
| Jose Peraza | 279 | 2.90% | 16.10% | 0.18 | 4 | 0.254 | 50 |
Garrett Richardsvs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Talk about a terrible comeback. Richards has allowed sevenearned runs over 5 1/3 innings since his return. Four of them earned runs werein his last start facing this same Diamondbacks team, but the last time was inSan Diego. Tonight, he is heading to Arizona and a negative park shift. The D’Backsare in full play on this 9/28 MLB DFS Slate.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Ketel Marte | 454 | 10.10% | 14.10% | 0.72 | 8 | 0.404 | 150 |
| Abraham Almonte | 33 | 15.20% | 24.20% | 0.63 | 0 | 0.399 | 147 |
| Kevin Cron | 57 | 5.30% | 33.30% | 0.16 | 0 | 0.341 | 109 |
| Christian Walker | 423 | 9.00% | 27.00% | 0.33 | 7 | 0.341 | 109 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 491 | 8.60% | 18.90% | 0.45 | 4 | 0.335 | 105 |
| Alex Avila | 162 | 19.80% | 34.60% | 0.57 | 1 | 0.331 | 102 |
| Domingo Leyba | 26 | 15.40% | 30.80% | 0.5 | 0 | 0.326 | 98 |
| Wilmer Flores | 172 | 6.40% | 10.50% | 0.61 | 0 | 0.325 | 98 |
| Tim Locastro | 150 | 4.70% | 14.70% | 0.32 | 16 | 0.318 | 94 |
| Adam Jones | 357 | 5.90% | 19.00% | 0.31 | 2 | 0.311 | 89 |
| Nick Ahmed | 460 | 8.00% | 19.30% | 0.42 | 7 | 0.297 | 80 |
| Carson Kelly | 261 | 12.30% | 21.80% | 0.56 | 0 | 0.296 | 79 |
| Jarrod Dyson | 395 | 10.60% | 18.50% | 0.58 | 29 | 0.274 | 65 |
| Jake Lamb | 194 | 12.90% | 24.20% | 0.53 | 1 | 0.271 | 63 |
| Josh Rojas | 115 | 9.60% | 25.20% | 0.38 | 2 | 0.262 | 57 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 156 | 5.10% | 13.50% | 0.38 | 1 | 0.261 | 56 |
| Caleb Joseph | 32 | 3.10% | 21.90% | 0.14 | 0 | 0.208 | 22 |
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The reality is Mike Foltynewicz has been incredible lately, and I am also sure that a ton of DFS writers are putting him out there today. My rule as a DFS writer is simple, if I am not going to use a player in my lineup, I will not include them in my article. But he is in a great spot, I just smell regression. Folty has only had eight strikeouts once this season, back on May 31st facing the Tigers. Under all the way.
Steven Matz has achieved these number a few times this season facing the Braves. With everything well in hand for Atlanta, I see some bench playing time today. Over all the way.
The Padres are among the league leaders in strikeouts versus LHPs, this is not a good thing for them. Robbie Ray has a 12.0 K/9, which is a very good thing for him. Over all the way.
Richards will be lucky enough to survive three innings tonight before being sent to the showers. Under.
A word if I may. Thank you to my beautiful wife Jennifer for taking my hand in marriage six years ago today. You put up with endless sports on the TV, loud and obnoxious hardcore music, and my grumpiness on a daily basis. I love you and hope we have many more years together. Happy Anniversary.
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This 9/16 MLB DFS slate is small but extremely appetizing. Any time we have an implied total of 13.5 runs in any MLB game it becomes a clear indicator of where all the ownership is going to be directed. The problem is, we also have some excellent SP1 options tonight. So, with the new Sect LP playing in the background, I bring you today’s pitching picks.
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On theDefense
Salary is a huge issue on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, we haveseveral top priced starters with little in the way of mid-tier value. This isgoing to make stacking Coors Field tough unless you take some serious chances.
StephenStrasburg vs. St. Louis Cardinals
$10,400 FD / $11,800 DK
There is little question that Strasburg is the top pitchingoption for this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. The Cardinals are striking out 22.5 percentof the time versus RHPs with a wOBA of .313. The last time “The Stras” faced St.Louis he had nine strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run.If you are going to spend tonight, here is where to look for the highest Kupside.
JoseBerrios vs. Chicago White Sox
$8,500 FD / $10,200 DK
At times I am baffled with the price differences between thesites on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. For $8,500 tonight on FD Berrios is a highupside option at a bargain price. On DK I have to say “No way Jose” outside oflarge field GPPs. Regardless, the White Sox are striking out 25.7 percent ofthe time versus RHPs with a low .312 wOBA. This season Berrios is 3-1 versusthe Sox with a 3.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 27 innings. Love the matchup,hate he is not cheaper on DK.
DakotaHudson vs. Washington Nationals
$8,600 FD / $8,100 DK
Sniffing out the third pitching option on this 9/16 MLB DFSslate was like threading a needle with fat fingers. Although I do like TannerRoark versus the Royals, that $9,300 price tag on DK scared me away. Robbie Rayseemed like another option with great numbers versus Miami, like everyone else.But that blister issue is one where it seems prudent to hold back the cash fora start while we wait and see. Remember Rich Hill’s blister?
The clear choice seems to be Hudson. On FD I prefer Berrios, but on DK here is your best SP2 option at the price. The Nationals are 10th in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and on the lower side of the strikeout world at 21.2 percent. Hudson, however, did strike out seven while only allowing one earned run over six innings in his only start facing the Nats this season. On a tricky 9/16 MLB DFS slate he is the shining star in a SP2 galaxy of dead planets.
Boom orBust
One possible matchup stands out to me on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate for an uber cheap SP2 option. The problem, of course, is he has serious potential to sink you as well. If you are not among the faint of heart this is for you.
PabloLopez vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
$6,700 FD / $5,500 DK
If you are playing on FD on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, you are better served spending up. The pricing is reasonable, and you can still fit some great bats in without taking this risk. On DK, it is a different world. The Diamondbacks are striking out at a lower 21.3 percent of the time facing RHPs with a low .306 wOBA. Over the last seven days they are batting a pathetic .167 with a wRC+ of 26. If memory serves me that is about the lowest wRC+ I can remember. Attacking a slumping team with a sub-par pitcher sometimes is like hitting the DFS jackpot, or the toilet.
| Name | Team | W | L | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 17 | 6 | 10.79 | 2.31 | 1.04 | 50.10% | 15.60% | 3.49 | 3.2 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 12 | 8 | 8.6 | 2.29 | 1.19 | 42.10% | 12.10% | 3.63 | 4.38 |
| Dakota Hudson | Cardinals | 15 | 7 | 6.93 | 4.23 | 1.18 | 57.20% | 21.20% | 3.38 | 4.49 |
| Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 5 | 8 | 7.97 | 2.16 | 1.31 | 46.60% | 15.90% | 4.97 | 4.24 |
On theAttack
On this small 9/16 MLB DFS slate the attack options arequite limited with the volume of positive pitching matchups. The Mets / Rockiesgame is where the DFS world is looking so why not look elsewhere?
KevinGausman vs. Chicago Cubs
There is a bit of confusion here as to whether it is Sonny Gray, or Kevin Gausman starting tonight. The latest report I have is Gausman. Lucky for us the pricing is still adjusted to Gray. This means all the Cubs bats are discounted facing a pitcher with a 6.28 road ERA against one of the best hitting teams in baseball. On this 9/16 MLB DFS slate attack this with everything you got.
ChicagoCubs vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Nico Hoerner | 26 | 11.50% | 11.50% | 0 | 0.423 | 0.565 | 0.988 | 0.402 | 149 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 443 | 12.40% | 14.20% | 4 | 0.413 | 0.541 | 0.954 | 0.4 | 147 |
| Kris Bryant | 477 | 9.90% | 22.40% | 3 | 0.375 | 0.516 | 0.891 | 0.375 | 131 |
| Willson Contreras | 290 | 9.70% | 24.80% | 1 | 0.359 | 0.528 | 0.886 | 0.368 | 127 |
| Jason Heyward | 440 | 12.50% | 17.50% | 8 | 0.37 | 0.488 | 0.859 | 0.359 | 121 |
| David Bote | 251 | 13.50% | 24.70% | 3 | 0.386 | 0.458 | 0.844 | 0.358 | 119 |
| Victor Caratini | 197 | 10.20% | 22.30% | 1 | 0.355 | 0.48 | 0.835 | 0.351 | 115 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 447 | 11.60% | 25.10% | 2 | 0.329 | 0.522 | 0.851 | 0.348 | 113 |
| Nicholas Castellanos | 505 | 5.50% | 24.40% | 2 | 0.321 | 0.49 | 0.811 | 0.338 | 108 |
| Javier Baez | 448 | 4.50% | 27.90% | 3 | 0.308 | 0.512 | 0.82 | 0.337 | 106 |
| Robel Garcia | 51 | 5.90% | 39.20% | 0 | 0.275 | 0.511 | 0.785 | 0.317 | 93 |
| Ben Zobrist | 109 | 11.00% | 13.80% | 0 | 0.358 | 0.347 | 0.705 | 0.311 | 89 |
| Ian Happ | 90 | 11.10% | 22.20% | 2 | 0.3 | 0.43 | 0.73 | 0.308 | 87 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 215 | 9.30% | 14.40% | 0 | 0.33 | 0.378 | 0.708 | 0.308 | 91 |
| Albert Almora Jr. | 241 | 4.10% | 16.20% | 2 | 0.284 | 0.442 | 0.726 | 0.299 | 81 |
ColeHames vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cole Hamels was lit up in his only start this season facing the Reds allowing five earned runs over four innings. With cheap bats in need on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate there is a bevy of value to be found here on both sites tonight.
Cincinnati Reds vs. LHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Phillip Ervin | 84 | 7.10% | 20.20% | 0.35 | 0 | 0.405 | 0.662 | 1.067 | 0.312 | 0.436 | 168 |
| Aristides Aquino | 43 | 7.00% | 32.60% | 0.21 | 1 | 0.372 | 0.667 | 1.039 | 0.359 | 0.423 | 160 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 143 | 17.50% | 30.80% | 0.57 | 2 | 0.406 | 0.574 | 0.98 | 0.296 | 0.401 | 145 |
| Alex Blandino | 24 | 25.00% | 20.80% | 1.2 | 0 | 0.417 | 0.278 | 0.694 | 0.056 | 0.332 | 101 |
| Curt Casali | 88 | 10.20% | 19.30% | 0.53 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.429 | 0.758 | 0.169 | 0.321 | 93 |
| Freddy Galvis | 183 | 1.60% | 20.80% | 0.08 | 2 | 0.295 | 0.422 | 0.717 | 0.139 | 0.302 | 85 |
| Jose Peraza | 100 | 7.00% | 12.00% | 0.58 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.376 | 0.696 | 0.108 | 0.3 | 80 |
| Jose Iglesias | 119 | 4.20% | 10.10% | 0.42 | 0 | 0.311 | 0.389 | 0.7 | 0.115 | 0.3 | 79 |
| Joey Votto | 163 | 11.00% | 23.90% | 0.46 | 2 | 0.344 | 0.322 | 0.665 | 0.07 | 0.299 | 79 |
| Josh VanMeter | 26 | 11.50% | 30.80% | 0.38 | 1 | 0.269 | 0.227 | 0.497 | 0.091 | 0.234 | 37 |
| Derek Dietrich | 25 | 0.00% | 36.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.217 | 0.457 | 0.043 | 0.211 | 21 |
| Tucker Barnhart | 49 | 12.20% | 26.50% | 0.46 | 1 | 0.245 | 0.163 | 0.408 | 0.023 | 0.188 | 6 |
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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
With no interest in either sides of the plate tonight and two starting pitchers both capable of easily reaching these totals I am going with the over on both.
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