Welcome to the Super Bowl edition of PrizePicks Picks and Props. In this article we’ll be highlighting some of my favorite props that PrizePicks is giving us.
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We’ve made it folks. After a long, grueling season we’ve finally made it to the Super Bowl. We have 2 dynamic offenses going this weekend some of the top players in the league. It should be a game for the ages!
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
Joe Burrow – 270.5 Passing Yards
The kid from LSU just continues to win. So far in the playoffs he’s beaten Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, and Derek Carr. Can he make it 4 for 4 and beat Matthew Stafford? If the Bengals have any hope of winning this weekend, it’s going to be on the back, well arm of Joe Burrow. He’s willed the team to victory in more than a handful of games and I think he does it again this weekend.
The Rams, while having a solid secondary, have shown some susceptibility in the playoffs as they gave up over 300 yards to Tom Brady. Burrow has a ton of weapons to throw to and he’ll use them heavily on Sunday night. He’s “balled out” when the Bengals have needed him the most, and they’ll need him Sunday night. I’m siding with the over on the 270.5 passing yards that PrizePicks is giving us.
Matthew Stafford – 278.5 Passing Yards
On the other side of the ball we’ll have a QB in Stafford that will hopefully have two cities rooting for him in Los Angeles and Detroit. Childhood friend and teammate Clayton Kershaw already has a World Series ring. Does Stafford add a Super Bowl ring to the Highland Park High School trophy case? Like the Rams, the Bengals have also given some big numbers in the playoffs.
Derek Carr threw for over 300 in the Wild Card Game and then Mahomes threw for 275 in the Conference Championship. While a tough D, they can give up some yards in a hurry and like Burrow, Stafford has a plethora of weapons. His two main targets are two of the best in the league in Kupp and Beckham. We also can’t forget about Jefferson. I’m going with the over on the number that PrizePicks has set for us.
Joe Mixon – 60.5 Rushing Yards
I love Mixon, I really do. He’s a phenomenal back with tremendous upside. That said, I think he falls just short of his number this week. If the Bengals win this one, it’s going to be through the air and not on the ground. Burrow is at his best when he’s slinging the ball around to guys like Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Mixon has been a huge reason why the Bengals have gotten to this point, I just don’t think he’ll get the run in this one. He falls just short of the 60.5 rushing yards from PrizePicks.
Ja’Marr Chase – 77.5 Receiving Yards
Big game player in his what is his biggest game to date in the NFL. Yes, Jalen Ramsey has already been very vocal about flanking Chase all game. It’s going to be a tough game for Chase and Chase did have a down game against the Chiefs in the conference championship. That said, I just don’t see a scenario where it happens 2 weeks in a row, especially in a game this big.
Some players are born for moments like this one. Chase is that type of player. Since Week 16 vs. the Ravens, Chase has had 4 games over 100 yards receiving. This week it will be 5 games and Chase battles Burrow for Super Bowl MVP. I’m going with the over on this one.
Cooper Kupp – 105.5 Yards
What else is there to say at this point about Cooper Kupp? Including the playoffs, he has just 4 games under 100 receiving yards since week 6. He’s had just an unreal year and he’ll be needed if the Rams have hopes of holding off the feel good Bengals. Kupp, regardless of who’s covering him, continues to find open spaces deep and Stafford always finds a way to find him when he is. Sunday night should be no exceptions. Look for Kupp to have yet another 100 yard game and smash the PrizePicks target.
One other pick and you won’t find this one on PrizePicks. My bet for first song during the halftime show will be Lose Yourself.
Good luck and hope to see some green bars come Sunday night!
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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 15 NFL DFS contests!
There’s plenty of uncertainty looming as we approach the MNF contest this week, although it’s not necessarily a question of competition; the Steelers should win this game handily as the Bengals haven’t really been able to stop anyone and they’re rolling out an objectively bad QB in Ryan Finley.
The biggest question is who exactly will be logging most of the backfield touches for the Steelers, who may simply rely on their usual smattering of quick-attack passing plays and the occasional heave to their assortment of capable receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, James Washington and TE Eric Ebron) in the red zone. Johnson has been dealing with the dropsies but is still the highest priced WR in this contest. On the Cincy side, I’m still interested in slot man Tyler Boyd for his PPR upside and rookie revelation Tee Higgins (58-778-5 this season) for his red zone upside.
Ben Roethlisberger is the obvious chalk at CPT, though we can get a few key pieces of the Steelers passing game if we roster the right cheap RB – be it James Conner (questionable with a quad injury), the largely ineffective and boring Benny Snell, Jr. or passing down back Jaylen Samuels. Conner sat out weeks 12 and 13 with COVID, ran for just 18 yards on 10 carries in Week 14, and earlier this week looked like a longshot to even suit up for Week 15. He didn’t practice Thursday but got in limited sessions Friday and Saturday.
If Conner doesn’t play tonight, I’ll consider Snell, but I’m partial to Samuels and rookie RB Anthony McFarland, Jr., — who could be inactive again (like Week 14) if Conner does end up playing. If we get word that McFarland (just $200 as a flex on DK) will be in the mix for carries, I’ll be locking him into about half my GPP lineups. Somebody on the Steelers is going to shred this awful Bengals run defense, but the injury to Conner and the varied nebulous roles that define each of the other RBs really complicate the matter. WRs are still the priority for PIT, but the price points for the RBs are a prime pathway to a big payday.
The Bengals have their own issues at RB, with Giovani Bernard, Trayveon Williams and Samaje Perine likely splitting the workload until a “hot hand” emerges. Pass protection and ball protection – and not talent – might be the largest factors for the Bengals backfield in this matchup. Bernard’s fumble in Week 14 earned him a spot on the bench, but he’s still the most versatile back they have with Joe Mixon sidelined on IR indefinitely. I’ll have one or two Bengals total in my builds (Higgins/Seibert or Boyd/Bernard), and probably never three — though it makes sense to build at least one Finley/Boyd or Finley/Higgins lineup.
I probably don’t have to tell you to consider the Steelers DST and fade the Bengals DST, but it’s worth mentioning as Pittsburgh should easily confound Finley and force some turnovers. Bengals kicker Austin Seibert will get the start, and Chris Boswell should be healthy enough to play for Pittsburgh. Neither kicker is a priority.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Play Big Ben. The Steelers WRs are too good and the RBs don’t do enough for this team.
DON’T: Forget about the Steelers defense. They’ve lost a few key players but it’s a deep team with plenty of playmakers.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
We’re always looking for ways to put money in your pockets here at Win Daily. When there is a betting line that we can take advantage of, we let you know about it too! Here are a few plays we like on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NFL Futures Bets for 2020.
There are a few teams I’m looking to take advantage of this year in the NFL one of them is my beloved Giants… Make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @michaelrasile1 and hop into our Free Expert Chat on Discord.
Giants – o/u 6.5 on DraftKings- UNDER
The Giants had 4 wins last year, 2 against the Redskins, and they got better. Defense is still terrible but the offensive line did get better through the draft. I can maybe see 1 win in their first 5 games: Home against the Steelers (loss), At the Bears (loss), Home against the 49ers (loss), At the Rams (loss), Home against the Cowboys (loss). Maybe maybe maybe one of those goes the Giants way, but probably not. Facing the AFC North and NFC West with each division potentially making the argument that 3 teams from those divisions can make the playoffs. No shot at 7 wins. High on saquon in fantasy, pretty low on Daniel Jones, especially with a deep QB class.
Rams – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Rams went 9-7 last year and easily could have been in the playoffs if Greg the Leg could hit an easy field goal against Seattle. They have almost $65 million tied in dead cap (Gurley, Matthews, Cooks) and a bad QB. Offensive line was the biggest problem last year and they did some to fix it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was bad again. Todd was bad, but still had over 1000 yard from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns. AFC East and NFC East are pretty easy. NFC West will be hard this year. 2 extra games are the Bucs and Bears, Tom Brady should be fine, and the Bears defense has given the rams fits the last few years. I think their offense won’t be as it was in 2018 and I think their defense will be middle of the pack.
Bears – o/u 7.5 – OVER
Deshaun Watson came out and said the Bears never even spoke with him. Now they are stuck with a terrible QB and Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles was beat out by a 6th round rookie last year, so the Bears thought they should trade a 4th round pick for him, take on his contract (restructured) and now they’re in a pickle. With all that said, their schedule is super easy and them starting out 5-1 or 6-1. AFC South, and AFC South. Extra games the Giants and Saints. 1-1 there. Probably take the over, but i’d be worried. I also wouldn’t touch anyone on this offense except Allen Robinson and it won’t be until late in the draft.
Chiefs – o/u 11.5 – UNDER
The Chiefs’ schedule consists of the AFC East, NFC South, with the 2 extra against the Ravens and Texans (both play off teams). Per Warren Sharp, Chiefs are going against a top 10 hardest Pass Efficiency Defense. Chiefs love to throw the ball! But thankfully adding a running back in the draft can make their offense a little less reliant on the pass. Super Bowl hangover for all teams other than the Patriots is real. Currently favorites to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 winners, only 2 teams made it back to the Super Bowl, Pats/Seahawks, 3 teams didn’t make it back to the playoffs. AFC is pretty weak this year, so they make the playoffs, but I don’t think they repeat and I think they land at 11 wins.
49ers – o/u 10.5 – OVER
The 49ers schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC East, and 2 extra games against the Saints and Packers. Top three favorite to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 SB losers only one has come back and won it. Roster is still stacked and intact. Added a real receiver in the draft and got Trent Williams from the redskins. NFCE and AFCE are both bad, should be able to hit the over of 10.5. Fantasy will be weird, Deebo might be a fun play in DFS but I don’t see the consistency in season long. Aiyuk is a real receiver in this offense unlike the rest of them. Kittle for sure. Running back by committee, Kyle Shannahan doesn’t care.
Browns – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Browns schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC South, and 2 extra games against the Jets and Raiders. Browns were terrible last year and finished 7-9. Stacked on offense, just needed a real coach and a semblance of an offensive line. Picked up Conklin in the off season for right tackle and Jedrick Wills for left tackle, he played right tackle in college, but Tua is a lefty so he was still blindside. NFC East and AFC South are both bad and their two extra games aren’t too tough either. I think if the offense can pick it up a bit, added Austin Hooper as well I think they do great. Stephanski runs a lot of 2 TE sets so it was a great pick up. Only problem is if they start out bad, how quickly does Odell and Jarvis get angry at Baker and start to ruin the locker room and ask to be traded again? I think there is a shot at the over, but the Browns are still the Browns and in that case I take the under.
Make sure to follow Sia at @SiaNejad on Twitter and hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord!
Chicago at Detroit (-1.5) – A best bet. Detroit at home with weapons on offense. Defense is shaky but that shouldn’t be a problem against Mitch Trubisky. Lions tend to start fast. Last year derailed by Stafford injury but this team isn’t as poor as people think.
Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville – Is it possible for a team to give up before Week 1? This game is a stay away for me but if I had to bet it I’d take the Minshew magic plus the points. It’s just too many points for a home team in Week 1. Indy probably overvalued at this point.
Green Bay at Minnesota -3.5 – shocking line. Take it at 3 maybe. This line will go down to 3 or maybe 2.5 by kickoff. I’m taking Minnesota with the assumption that I get the line later on at 3 or 3.5. Not in love with the bet but the line tells you all you need to know about how the oddsmakers feel about the Packers (record from last year may be a little fraudulent).
L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati – Chargers probably win but 3.5 is too much. This is a bet against on Tyrod and Anthony Lynn. Chargers can’t help but play close games and Tyrod just isn’t the guy. Bengals have just enough weapons to move the ball and keep it close.
Arizona at San Francisco (-8) – too many points. Home game not a factor here. Kyler has done well against SF. Too many weapons for Arizona. Game will be close enough.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-4) – line is all over the place. Anything under 4 and I’m on Saints. Line opened at -6 when schedule came out which was absurd. Let’s see if the line moves. If it stays at -4 I’ll take the dog. It’s a stay away for now.
Dallas (-3) at L.A. Rams – Feels like they’re in a bad spot. Dallas has a ton of weapons on offense. Defense is very shaky but if they can get a pass rush on Goff, they’ll be okay. Not a bet I love and i’d probably wait to see if line goes down to -2.5. Probably won’t since Dallas is a public team.
Ravens over (11 with juice to over) – Very easy schedule. Only travel 6k miles on the season (some teams are between 25k-30k of travel miles). 14-2 last year. Loaded and did well in the draft (Patrick Queen, JK Dobbins, plenty of offensive line help, DLineman in the third round and a very underrated WR out of Texas in Duvernay and Proche from SMU). Also got James Daka as an UDFA out of JMU. Edge rusher with 16.5 sacks last year (I went to JMU).
Steelers over (8.5 with juice to over) – Easy schedule (NFC East/AFC South out of division). People falling asleep on them. Great defensive front. They get their QB back. Weapons at WR (Juju, Claypool, DJohnson and James Washington) and TE (Ebron/Vance) and RB with Conner and Macfarland.
Bengals under (6) – Someone has to be the big loser in this division. Looking at their schedule I can find 5 wins but not 6. Certainly not 7 so you’re worst case feels like a push. Small miracle if this team gets anywhere near 7 games.
Giants under (6.5) (AFC North/NFC West) – I know Michael covered them but thought id touch on them too (maybe it’s good to reinforce?). Under is a good bet here. Schedule is tough. Just seems like such a good play felt right to reinforce it.
Broncos over (7.5) (AFC East/NFC South) – Not the easiest schedule but still like it. Won 4 of last 5 games last year. 3 of first 5 on the road but that’s not a bad thing. Pass rush should be good. Improved OLine. Good OC in Pat Shurmur. Loaded at RB (Gordon and Lindsay) and WR (Jeudy, Sutton, KJ Hamler) and talent at TE. I believe in Drew Locke.
Cowboys over (9.5) – Defense has to be decent and then they’ll cruise in a weak division.
Ravens at 7 to 1 – Best team in the NFL. 14-2 last year. 4th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric. Absolutely loaded up in the draft on offense and defense (Dobbins/Queen/Duvernay/Proche/OL/DL/Daka out of JMU (16.5 sacks last year). Only travel 6,000 miles on the entire season (compare that to most NFC/AFC West teams which can travel 25-30 thousand miles).
Cowboys at 18 to 1 – Competitive NFC but this is a real team which now has a real coach which upgraded in a big way in the draft. Defense is suspect but these are solid odds. I like the Cowboys +110 to win the NFC East as well.
Steelers at 28 to 1 – 7th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric (NFC East/AFC South). Steelers got to 8 wins with basically no QB. Juju healthy. BigBen healthy. Stout defense. Upgrades on offense at RB and WR plus solid core of young WRs (Johnson/Washington). Only two legitimate teams in the AFC so there is a chance for Steelers to make some noise.
Bucs +105 versus the Saints +110 [NFC South]
Saints added Emmanuel Sanders and a few pieces on defense in free agency. Solid draft with Baun at LB, Ruiz at Center, Troutman at TE. May take a while for Bucs to get acclimated. And let’s not forget Brady is 100 years old. Bucs offense should still be lethal but not sure they’re fit to take over in the NFC South. I do like what Bucs did in grabbing Wirfs in first round to shore up OLine and like Ke’Shawn Vaughn to be a potential sneaky star at RB.
Packers +170 versus Vikings +165 [NFC North]
Just seems like the Pack may fall apart this year. Won a lot of close games last year and I expect regression there. No help for ARod on offense. Vikings got a headache out of the locker room in Diggs and filled his position in the draft with Jefferson. Vikings addressed every need in first two rounds with a WR, CB, and a Tackle. 15 picks overall and this is suddenly a young team on the rise with a veteran QB and an elite pair of RB’s
Cowboys +100 versus Eagles +140 [NFC East]
Seems like Cowboys have the easier schedule. Eagles a very solid team but Wentz certainly an injury risk and Eagles draft didn’t address needs like the Cowboys did. Cowboys did lost Byron Jones (and Philly gained Slay) but Cowboys drafted 2 CBs with their first 4 picks and now have elite weapons all over the offense. Eagles first two picks with Reagor and Hurts may have very minimal impact in 2020.
Niners +115 versus Seahawks +225 [NFC West]
At some point Russell Wilson is going to have a problem carrying this entire team. Niners get almost everyone back. Buckner gone but they filled his spot with Javon Kinlaw. Got Brendan Aiyuk from ASU. Team is loaded and getting value at +115. Hawks draft seemed full of reaches with Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor with first two picks.
Make sure to follow Jason on Twitter at @jasonmezrahi and talk to him about his picks in our Free Expert Chat on Discord.
Bucs 12 to 1
Already locked it in at 15 to 1 and I don’t mind it here at 12 to 1. This offense is going to be good to great. Their Run D was good enough. Their secondary was terrible. Licht also made other big moves this offseason, keeping NFL sack leader Shaq Barrett, and bringing back veteran defenders in Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. He also made sure he landed one of the best offensive tackle prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft, trading up for Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs. Though he has taken his share of grief for his misses in recent years, much of which he admits he deserves, Licht deserves every bit of praise he’s getting for the bold moves he’s made this offseason to make the Bucs a legitimate contender. We’ll see if the on-field results match the hype this fall, but at this point, Licht and the Bucs have been big winners this offseason.
Eagles 17 to 1
Picking up Darius Slay covered a major whole in that philadelphia secondary and if Carson and the wide receiving crew can stay healthy they can cruise thru a weak NFC east and lock up a possible home playoff game. I love what sanders brings to this offense, combined with the two tight end set of Ertz and Goeddert, and hopefully a healthy Alshon, Desean and rookie Reagor this offense can be explosive.
Cardinals 60 to 1
The Cardinals have been busy this offseason. They acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins in a trade that sent RB David Johnson to the Houston Texans. They re-signed RB Kenyan Drake and LT D.J. Humphries. They added DL Jordan Phillips and LBs Devon Kennard and De’Vondre Campbell in free agency. They selected LB Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft and added OL Josh Jones (Houston), DL Leki Fotu (Utah) and DL Rashard Lawrence (LSU) with their next three picks.
Overs
Ravens – 11
49ers – 10.5
Broncos – 7.5
Unders
Giants – 6.5
Jets – 6.5
Rams – 8
Bills – 9
I hope you can make some money on our NFL Futures Bets for 2020, I think these are some solid plays for the year. Considering we don’t know what it will look like, it should be fun either way!
Make sure to hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord to ask us all questions!
To those of you that don’t recognize me, I go by JPrellezo on FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can call me Javi. My goal here in the 10/11 DFS column is to assist you in becoming more successful and profitable with some fantasy gold. I’ll go through what works for me and I hope I can guide you to the Promised Land!
Iwant to focus this article on a deep dive into NFL Week 6 and guide you to winbig. I will go game by game with my takes on each game along with my core andvalue plays for Week 6.
Deep Dive and Top Plays
Cowboys vs. Jets
I’mgoing to start with this game because you may not know this, but I’m a big Cowboysfan. In this game, the Cowboys are coming off two straight losses to actualcompetition and are looking to end this streak. Sam Darnold is back, which bumpsup the projections and values of a few players, but I’ll be on the Cowboys sidefor the most part.
Cowboys – The Jets rankin the middle of the pack for defense and have been pretty solid behind a pouroffense that was being run by Luke Falk. The Cowboys are projecting fora bounce back game and I’m high on Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. TheCowboys thrive against bad teams and I’d expect them to continue theirdominance against bad teams.
Jets – Sam Darnold is back, which means JamisonCrowder and Le’Veon Bell receive a boost in projections. In Week 1, JamisonCrowder had 10+ targets and had quite a game. Bell was also used in thepassing game and on the field for 100% of their offensive snaps. Le’Veon Bell will garner some ownershipand he’s projecting well over 20% for Week 6, but I won’t be that high on him.Yes, the Cowboys defense allowed 4 TDs to Aaron Jones, but the Dallas defenseis pretty solid and should bounce back against a poor Jets team.
10/11 DFS Core Plays
10/11 DFS Value Plays
49ers vs. Rams
Thisgame is probably 1 of 3 games that I won’t be focusing on as much. I believethat this is a tough game to predict due to which LA Rams defense will show upthis Sunday. Jameis Winston had a field day against the Rams a few weeks agoand the Rams don’t look solid at all. Meanwhile, the 49ers are looking like oneof the best teams in the NFL and the defense might be legit. It’s still early,but time will tell.
49ers – I like the 49ers side for value, but it is very difficult to predict which Wide Receivers will perform as Jimmy Garoppolo loves to spread the ball around. George Kittle is severely underpriced and I’ll definitely have some shares on DraftKings. I also like the price tag of Marquise Goodwin on FanDuel. As for the running backs, I’m at a complete fade given how many they are using right now. I’d use them in GPPs, but a definite fade in cash.
Rams – Besides all our questions surrounding Gurley and his usage, we’re also wondering about Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. Cooper Kupp is settling in as Jared Goff’s favorite WR, but everyone else seems to be a big question mark. I do like the price tag for Robert Woods, but I’m not high on the Rams side given the rejuvenation of the 49ers defense.
10/11 DFS Core Plays
10/11 DFS Value Plays
Saints vs. Jaguars
Thishas the potential to be the sneakiest game of the slate, but I believe it’smore a GPP game stack then cash game. The New Orleans Saints defense is middleof the pack , but have one of the best run defenses in all of football. Meanwhile, the Jaguars defense is a shell ofits former self and ranks towards the bottom of the NFL. With two weak pass defenses,this has the potential to be a higher scoring game.
Saints – Is Teddy Bridgewater the real deal? He could be getting into the swing of things, but only time will tell. You can use him and Michael Thomas in GPP’s, but my main focus is going to be Alvin Kamara. He will be the only Saints player with most of my exposure.
Jaguars – I believe in Minshew Mania. That’s the first point I want to get across before I dive into this. DJ Chark is priced a little too high for me right now given his recent success so I won’t be using him in as many lineups except for my Gardner Minshew stacks in GPP’s. The value play for me will be Dede Westbrook. He is still a vital part of the passing game and he’s a solid salary saver. As for Leonard Fournette, he projects well, but this Saints run defense is the real deal and I won’t be as high on him. He does have high usage in this Jaguars offense, but the defense and price tag make me shy away from him. On DraftKings, I’m more on Fournette and Chark because of their price tags.
10/11 DFS Core Plays
10/11 DFS Value Plays
Seahawks vs. Browns
This isanother interesting game that I will have some pieces for my lineups, but alower amount of stacks. My favorite play of this slate is from this gamebecause of his price tag and usage and he will be in a lot of my GPP and cashlineups. Also, we see a pretty steep discount on Odell Beckham.
Seahawks – This is the moment you’ve been waiting for. My core play of the entire slate. Are you ready? If you listened to my podcast yesterday, you’ll know that I love the price tag of Tyler Lockett and he is going to be locked and loaded in my cash lineups along with most of my GPP lineups. Chris Carson has a pretty nice price tag, but I want to see one more solid game before I roster him in multiple lineups. D.K. Metcalf is also interesting to me, but I’ll mainly be on Lockett. Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman did just run all over this defense so I can see the case for Chris Carson, but I don’t trust him given his ball security issues.
Browns – If there is to be a bounce back game for the Browns, I think this might be the one. I see them trailing for a good portion of this game so they will be passing the ball a ton. Odell Beckham is at a discount and I’ll lock him in GPP lineups until I see more consistency. I’m mainly off the Browns for this game except for tournaments.
10/11 DFS Core Plays
10/11 DFS Value Plays
Titans vs. Broncos
Thisgame is a fade for me. Since I’m doing 150 lineups on the Milly Makertournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings, I’ll have 1 or 2 stacks for each team,but I am far from a fan of this game.
Titans – The only two things I’m considering for the Titans are using their DST and a few Derrick Henry lineups. With a low Vegas total, this team is not a focus for me.
Broncos – Another low Vegas total for the Broncos and until they have someone other than Joe Flacco throwing to Emmanuel Sanders or Courtland Sutton, they are a fade. Sutton and Sanders do have a nice number of targets, but I’m not a fan because of Flacco. They are pretty much a fade for me.
10/11 DFS Core Plays
10/11 DFS Value Plays
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Bengals vs. Ravens
I tooka stab at this game in my Wednesday article talking about the Bengals and theirhorrific defense. In my $40,000 victory this past Sunday, I used the Bengals DSTand it hurt my chances at the $100,000. The Bengals rank in the bottom 5 in overall defense and rank 27thin points allowed.
Ravens – Given Lamar Jackson has struggled the past 2 weeks, I expect a bounce back game. I’m a little off Mark Ingram because of his price tag, but you can use him in GPP as he projects to be under 10% owned. Marquise Brown will garner ownership because of price tag, especially on FanDuel. Mark Andrews is just too cheap on DraftKings to pass up on him
Bengals – Although the Ravens defense is nothing to brag about, the Bengals offense has been struggling since week 2. I’m high on the Ravens defense is season long leagues, but that price tag is way too high in a matchup against a mediocre Bengals offense. The Bengals rank in the bottom 5 in offense as well, but they will be passing a lot this game given they will be trailing from the get go. I’ll have a few lineups with Joe Mixon and Auden Tate on DraftKings because of their price, but my main play in GPP’s will most likely be Tyler Boyd. The Bengals side of this game is not my favorite play, but I’ll have some GPP lineups with them.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
Texans vs. Chiefs
I’mgoing to stick with this game as the “Game Stack of the Week”. Both sides will garner ownership given their letit fly mentalities
Texans – DeAndre Hopkins is due to breakout. Plain and simple. Given Will Fuller’s recent performance, I expect DeAndre Hopkins to break out of his funk versus a mediocre Chiefs defense. As always, we are unsure of what’s wrong with the DraftKings pricing model because Carlos Hyde is ridiculously cheap and the best value on the slate.
Chiefs – The same narrative can be said here about Travis Kelce. Kelce has struggled in recent weeks and Patrick Mahomes seems to be human. I’m hoping many shy away from the Chiefs given their price tags, but I’m still high on them this week given Atlanta was passing all over Houston last week. I don’t have Mahomes listed as a core play, but that doesn’t mean I won’t have shares of him.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Couldthis be the game that Julio Jones breaks out of his funk? He is one of myfavorite plays of this slate. I honestly think Hooper will go lower owned giventhe Cards shutting down Tyler Eifert, but I’m locking in Hooper as the Falconsare pass happy and I expect lots of targets to head Hooper’s way.
Falcons – Arizona defense is bad. Plain and simple. They arebroken when it comes to defending the TE. I will load up on Falcons stacks as I expect them to continue to be passheavy.
Cardinals – Kyler Murray is coming off his first win and this was without doing as well as we wanted him to. Given the Falcons and Cardinals having two of the worst defenses in the NFL, I’d expect a shootout. This game will most likely be my number two game stack I heavily use. Look for Christian Kirk news because I’ll be loading up on Larry Fitzgerald along with some KeeShan Johnson if Kirk is ruled out.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
Eagles vs. Vikings
I sidemore with the Vikings side over the Eagles side for this game. Vikings DSTstill ranks as one of the top defenses, but they are susceptible to the pass. Isee the Eagles trailing in this game so they’ll need to pass. Ertz projectswell from the Eagles side.
Eagles – As I mentioned, my main target is Ertz, but Jordan Howard comes in as value on DraftKings given that he seems to have won the feature back role.
Vikings – This is where things get dicey. The Eagles secondary is garbage and Kirk Cousins should have a field day. The question is whether Stefon Diggs will finally have his breakout game. I’m high on him this week given his price tag, but you just never know. I do like Dalvin Cook this week after a down week in Week 5.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
Redskins vs. Dolphins
Battle of the defeated! One of my least favorite games, but could be a GPP gold mine. There is value all over the place with this game and both defenses rank towards the bottom. Not much to dive deep into for this game as it has the lowest projected total in Vegas so I’ll keep the value plays on this end. I will have some Case Keenum and Terry McLaurin stacks given the chemistry they’ve had this season.
ValuePlays
My rankings for DST are as follows:
My offenses to target and stacks to focus on are as follows
Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend!
I’ll be in Las Vegas this weekend so I’ll beon and off until Sunday morning, but please contactme with any questions on Twitter @Javi_Prellezo or on our Win Daily Slackchannel!
WIN DAILY is excited and proud to welcome DFS Pro Javier Prellezo to the team! Check out his incredible career DFS accomplishments in his bio at the bottom of the page.
Win Daily DFS Grinders: Happy Wednesday to you!!
To those of you that don’t recognize me, I go by JPrellezo on FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can call me Javi. My goal is to assist you in becoming more successful and profitable with some DFS Diamonds. I’ll go through what works for me and I hope I can guide you to the Promised Land!
For those of you that were in our Premium Gold Slack Chat this past week, I was trying to guide you all to push for Christian McCaffrey. They are simply forcing him the ball and rolling the offense towards CMC. Until they decide to lighten the workload, you need to keep pushing CMC as a CORE PLAY. Unfortunately, he’s not on the main slate for this week so it’s time to be sad.
MostDFS sites, pros, players, etc. don’t focus on the next week until later on inthe week, but I want to provide an early look into Week 6. I want to focus onthe top 3-5 games that I’m currently leaning towards for Week 6. I will take adeeper dive into the games later in the week.
DFS Cash Game Plays and Top Plays
Bengals vs. Ravens
This isn’t a game to target on both sides, but more on the Ravens side. The Bengals defense is bad and for those of you that took advantage of the cheap price on the Bengals DST were thoroughly disappointed. Given two straight weeks of disappointment for Lamar Jackson, I’d expect a BIG bounce-back game for Jackson and the Ravens offense. Keep your eye on Marquise Brown and his ankle throughout the week.
DFS Core Plays
ValuePlays
Texans vs. Chiefs
To be honest, this might be the game stack of the week. Texans vs. Falcons did NOT disappoint and I don’t think this game will either. Given two mediocre defenses and two killer offenses, I’ll be heavily invested in this game and I’d expect it to be the chalk. Keep your eye on Patrick Mahomes, who was hobbling all game on that ankle.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Many may shy away from this game because of how bad both teams are, but I wouldn’t say their offenses are as bad as their defenses. Austin Hooper will be the chalk given the Cardinals defense versus TEs, but hopefully, ownership will shy away from Hooper a little given that they shut down Tyler Eifert.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
GPP Game(s) of theWeek:
Redskins vs. Dolphins
Battle of the defeated! Who will get their first win or will they tie? Honestly, both defenses are bad, both offenses are bad. I suspect that many will NOT be on this game because of how bad they are, but this could be GPP gold. I side more with the Redskins side for offense, but with the Dolphins coming off a bye week. You just never know.
ValuePlays
Eagles vs. Vikings
Kirk Cousins is alive! I feel like most players will shy away from this game because of what the Eagles just did, but I expect the Vikings to feast on this terrible defense. The Vikings are motivated and Dalvin Cook had an off week. I expect Dalvin Cook to be a CORE PLAY!
CorePlays
ValuePlays
This is NOT a homer pick, but if Darnold is out this week once again, I’d say load up with the Dallas DST and move on from anyone else. Luke Falk is terrible and bad defenses (like the Eagles) have been feasting. The word is that Sam Darnold will be active, but be on the lookout for this news.
I’ll be back Friday with a deeper dive into my favorite NFL games for Week 6.
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Three game slates are NOT my favorite, but I do like to max enter on low-cost entries to see if we can hit big. My strategy is to put in 10-20 lineups for each team. Ideally, you can do 10 PP1 for each team and 10 PP2 for each team. It isn’t the best strategy, but it worked more times than once. I’d also recommend doing different combos of game stacks and hope for a 6-5 shootout in one of the games. With these PP lines, I’d focus on a game stack or focus on a particular stack that you’re in love with to mix and match,
Kings vs. Canucks
Kings – The Kings were bad last year and will continue to be bad. Losing 6-5 to Edmonton in their first game shows us a promising offense. As expected, their defense is bad and the Canucks could be a sneaky stack even though they are supposed to be any good this year. Core plays for the Kings include Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli, and Ilya Kovalchuk.
Canucks – A young squad with lots to learn. This game might the one we want to avoid given the inconsistencies of both teams. I don’t know what to expect, but there are some solid core players here. Core plays for the Canucks include Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Alexander Edler.
Key Takeaway – Being on the second night of a back-to-back, I’d load up on the PP1 and PP2 of the Canucks. Nothing is sneaky on a three game slate, but the Canucks are a solid play against the worst team in the NHL. I’d fade the Kings.
Devils vs. Flyers
Devils – The defense has been suspect through two games and offense seems middle of the pack. I’d fade them for now, but the offense does look promising coming off what they did last year. Core plays from New Jersey include P.K. Subban, Taylor Hall, Wayne Simmonds, Travis Zajac, and Kyle Palmieri.
Flyers – One game, one win. They allowed three goals on the path to a 4-3 win against the lowly Blackhawks. This game has the potential for high scoring given the rivalry and the poor defenses on both sides. I’d target more the Flyers side vs. the Devils side. Core plays from Philadelphia include Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk, and Shea Gostisbehere.
Key DFS Takeaway – This game has the potential to be high scoring so a game stack isn’t out of the question, but I’d prefer the Sabres vs. Canadians in that regard.
Canadiens vs. Sabres
Canadiens – Through two games, they’ve allowed three goals and five goals while losing both games in Shootouts. Defense looks to be a problem for the Canadiens, but the offense does NOT. I’d stack the top two PP lines with a focus on the PP1. Core plays from Montreal include Phillip Danault, Shea Weber, and Brendan Gallagher.
Sabres – They have beat two solid teams thus far with only three goals allowed thus far in the first two games. The offense put up seven recently against a solid Devils team, so we can wait and see to see how it goes, but I would just focus on the Canadiens side as of now. Core plays from Buffalo include Jack Eichel , Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson, and Sam Reinhart. These guys will be on the PP1 unit and have good value for your stacks.
Key DFS Takeaway – My primary game stack play would be this one. Both defenses are pretty suspect and both offenses seem to be strong this year. If I had to pick a side for this game, I’d choose Buffalo.
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PGADFS (10/9) – Houston Open
CorePlays
Doc Redman (FD : $8,400 ; DK : $7,200) – Best value for this tournament. He can find his way into contention given he is third in greens in regulation and fifth in strokes gained off the tee. Best value on the slate and will most likely be the chalk.
Harris English (FD : $9,900 ; DK : $8,900) – Weak field and this is your most expensive play on both sites, but this golfer was once elite. He’s an above-average with his putter and his short game is one of the best in the game. Although he has a weak approach game, he can be trusted given the weak field of this tournament.
My Consensus Value Rankings for this Tournament:
Please contact me with any questions on Twitter @Javi_Prellezo or on our Win Daily Slack channel!
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