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Chris Carson

WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 5 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Adam’s Game x Game article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

GPP:

Aaron Jones, Packers, $7,900DK/$8,400FD: (6.5%)

With King Henry being the de facto top option, James Robinson in a potential smash spot against the Titans, Swift against the Vikings, and possibly Tony Pollard becoming the huge chalk if Zeke misses time Aaron Jones’s beautiful matchup against the Bengals appears to be going overlooked completely and is sitting between 6-7% right now with the potential to go even lower depending on injury news in a few spots. Jones struggled last week but the Steelers defensive from is still solid and they play pass catching backs well enough to limit his upside last week. The Bengals though….Well they allowed 14 catches on 19 targets for 102 yards to Najee Harris and just gave up two TD’s on 78 yards to the Jags last week. This scenario screams GPP target and Jones will likely be my GPP pivot from Henry.

Nick Chubb, Browns, $6,700DK/$7,500FD: (4.5%)

I refuse to be the guy who misses the Chubb ceiling game at sub 5% ownership. The last two weeks his volume has been there with 22 touches in each contest but he has missed the endzone in each game so for a player like him it is a disappointment. With no Landry the volume should stay where it is, his talent is undeniable and he has not gone 3 games without a score since Week 9 of 2019. The Chargers also happen to be the worst team in terms of rushing yards allowed on the slate (yes, worse than Houston) allowing 139.5 yards, and are 25th in rushing DVOA. Something has to give here.

Damien Harris, Patriots,: $5,500DK/$6,500FD: (9.1%) (with 4 O-line out he is no longer cash viable)

Also Consider: Austin Ekeler (Cleveland has a ton of potential defensive injuries), Ezekiel Elliott

WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10

Cash:

Derrick Henry, Titans, $9,000DK/$10,400FD: (24%)

Here we go again. Henry is in yet another smash spot and should be a staple in your cash game. I’m not going to waste my time or yours going through the why of this one. Henry against the Jags, lock it in your cash contests, and call it a day.

James Robinson, Jaguars, $6,000DK/$7,400FD : (20%)

I am a little nervous here but it appears that Urban Meyer has learned that you should not drop your rookie QB back 50 times a game and that having a beast like J-Rob carrying the load is a good thing. The great thing too as the Titans might have the worst defense in the NFL this year. No doubt they have the worst secondary. In each of the last two games, Robinson has gotten at least 20 touches and has been targeted no less than twice in any game this season while averaging 5 yards per carry. The Titan’s rushing yards allowed is a bit deceiving as the Jets can’t run if their life depended on it and Indi chose week three to abandon their run game. I might not get here personally because I am going to have a lot of Marvin Jones (Titans have allowed more 30+ yard passes than any team in the NFL), but if you are playing cash games and not using Marvin he needs to be in strong consideration.

D’Andre Swift, Lions: $6,100DK/$6,900FD: (18%)

If you are just checking the box score from last week you would assume that something happened with Swift as he finished the day with only eight carries and four catches on the day. But the truth is the Lions were the unfortunate team that got to play the Bears without Nagy calling the shots and they played an inspired football game. Swift actually saw a 73% snap share, the highest on the season. I fully expect him to get back to his 12-14 carries and 6-8 targets against a Vikings defense that has been hemorrhaging points to running backs. Chubb and Hunt combined for 169 yards on the ground last week, 88 to Carson and Collins, and 127 yards to Joe Mixon. They also have allowed one rushing TD in each game this year. The Lions are bad, no doubt. But, they are surprisingly competitive for those who have not had a chance to see them in action and Goff has looked much better than I expected so kudos to him for proving us all wrong this season. With this being a 50 total game with Vikings as 10 point favorites Swifty is going to get all of the work he can handle catching out of the backfield Sunday, making him PPR gold for your cash games.

Alexander Mattison, Vikings, $5,500DK/$6,500: 20%+(Estimate)

Verify Dalvin Cook is out before locking him in but once you do you lock Mattison into your cash games and you do not think about it. Detroit has not been able to slow any running back this season much less stop.

Damien Williams, Bears, $5,600DK/$5,800FD: (14%)

Sucks that DraftKings priced him up but Damien throughout his career has produced whenever given an opportunity to start averaging over 15 points in PPR formats. In addition to that when trailing his yards per carry (4.7), yards per target (6.5), and catch rate (83.7%) all see an uptick when trailing and the Raiders should be able to take control of this contest as 5.5 point favorites. It is in no way sexy, but for cash games, the safe floor with a decent ceiling is exactly what you need for your cash game back.

Also Consider: Tony Pollard (if no Zeke, and he is a lock in that case), Chubba Hubbard, Najee Harris (tough matchup but he’s cash viable based on PPR value), Saquon Barkley

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

Week 5 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Rams at Seahawks

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 5 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 5 NFL DFS Chalk: Russell Wilson (FD $15,500, DK $17,700)

Pivot: Matthew Stafford (FD $16,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot #2: Cooper Kupp (FD $14,000, DK $18,600)

Contrarian #1: Tyler Lockett (FD $12,000, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #2: Robert Woods (FD $10,000, DK $11,400)

It’s going to be close between Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford for who gets the chalk at captain, and just like in previous showdowns, FanDuel and DraftKings have the top priced QB flip-flopped, with Stafford the top dog on FD and Wilson more expensive on DK — where noted Stix nemesis Cooper Kupp is actually the most expensive option. Stafford’s receiving options are healthier on a short week, while Wilson is dealing with a bunch of minor-to-medium injuries to his skill position weapons, including Tyler Lockett, who toughed out a hip injury on Sunday, DK Metcalf (foot, limited in practice Monday through Wednesday) and Chris Carson (questionable/GTD for TNF with a neck injury). One of my favorite captain plays is actually Robert Woods, who the team keeps promising will get more involved. Both he and punt play Rams WRs Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson are capable of large-field GPP brilliance if they catch a couple of big ones and allow you to get the main guys in there.

Rams notes: Darrell Henderson, Jr. (ribs) actually doesn’t have an injury designation for tonight, as he went through the same practice routine for a second consecutive week — being listed as limited on the first two daily injury reports before putting in a full session on the final one on Wednesday. He should handle the bulk of carries and snaps, but Sony Michel could always vulture a score or notch a few important touches. The matchup is great for almost all the Rams options, so the best bet is to mix-and-match based on narrative and find a good balance with these teams, as it’s projected to be a shootout (54.5 game total). TE Tyler Higbee and K Matt Gay are also in play.

Seahawks notes: The biggest news leading up to game time will be the status of Carson, and Alex Collins could be a nice bargain play if the first-stringer somehow sits this one out. I’m assuming that Metcalf will draw the coverage of Jalen Ramsey, so I have a little more interest in Lockett and Freddie Swain than normal, as well as TE Will Dissly, who only caught two passes (on two targets) for 5 yards in Sunday’s 28-21 win over the 49ers. Dissly should be more involved in this game and is very cheap at just $3,800. Jason Myers could get some additional FG tries if this one stays close, too.

Week 5 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. Another week with no bargains UNLESS Carson sits, and we could see DeeJay Dallas active, but he’s a super long shot.

Now that we’ve established some Week 5 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Matthew Stafford
Russell Wilson
Robert Woods
Cooper Kupp
Tyler Lockett
Darrell Henderson, Jr.
DK Metcalf
Chris Carson (questionable)
Tyler Higbee
Van Jefferson
Freddie Swain
DeSean Jackson
Will Dissly
Matt Gay
Jason Myers
Alex Collins (bumps up to spot 9 if Carson inactive)
Rams DST
Sony Michel
Seahawks DST
Other Seahawks RBs (if Carson incactive)

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 5 action!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 4 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s Cash Game and GPP articles, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

GPP:

(if you do not want to use Javonte because of the timeshare Michael Carter is in a great spot as a pivot at 5%)

Javonte Williams, Broncos $5,000DK/$5,900FD : (1.5%)

I will continue to beat this drum because it is only a matter of time before his talent results in a GPP takedown. With Melvin Gordon playing well, people will continue to avoid playing him in a 50/50 time share situation until the status quo changes. As a rookie he already has all of the tools to be an elite three down back but there is one thing people do not know, yet. He is one of the most intelligent people on the football field full stop. Not only does he understand his role, he understands the roles of every other player on the field which combined with his physical skills can and will make him an elite running back in this league the moment he gets the backfield to himself. Against the Ravens his pass catching ability is going to be vital (remember what I said about Swift last week being able to exploit the linebackers and safety’s). He will be finding open zones due to the cover 1 free concepts that are perfect for his open field agility and ability to break tackles. Gordon is questionable as of now but most people will stay away due to not knowing if he will be the main guy in the late games.

Nick Chubb, Browns, $7,000DK/$8,000FD: (3.5%)

Chubb is another player that I will continue to ride until he finally explodes and the fact that you can get him for only 7K, at under 4% ownership, against a bottom three run defense, in a pickem game, with a 51.5 total screams GPP play. Last week the Browns finally gave us the volume that we were expecting from Chubb with 22 carries. Luckily for us this week he only gained 84 yards and failed to get into the end zone for the first time in the regular season since week 10 of 2020. Chubb is an elite back averaging 5.5 yards per carry and Jarvis Landry will be out for at least a few more weeks. While Beckham will try to put the team on his back the Browns are at their absolute best when controlling the game from the ground.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, $6,400DK/$6,500FD: (3%)

The Eagles coaching staff embarrassed themselves on a nationally televised game and has everyone asking them why they would choose to not even consider running the football against a team that was short two of their defensive linemen and was susceptible to the run. Miles Sanders racked up 27 yards on only two carries and 28 yards on only three catches. It was an embarrassing game plan, so I am fairly certain after all of those questions and the clear accuracy issues of Jalen Hurts that they will make more of an effort to at minimum run enough to keep the Chiefs honest. I just do not see a scenario where Sirianni bails on his run game to an embarrassing degree two weeks in a row.

Also Consider: Zack Moss (3.5%), Michael Carter (5%), Antonio Gibson (10%)

WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3

Cash:

Derrick Henry, Titans, $8,800DK/$10,200FD: (20%)

This doesn’t take much explanation, his price will continue to climb from here and he is in a prime spot against the Jets. One thing that I would like to point out that Adam already has. Henry is now being used in the passing game. He is on pace for 73 targets this season dwarfing his career-high of 31. So now we have Derrick Henry catching four or five passes a game and his rushing volume is still the best in the league. Add in no AJ Brown and he is a must for your cash contests. Draftkings has not caught up to what Henry is doing in PPR. He is $1,000 too cheap this week.

David Montgomery, Bears, $5,800DK/$7,500FD: (17%)

I told you guys way back in the preseason that Nagy was going to have to sacrifice his play-calling duties to have a chance to keep his job. Well, four weeks in, and the rumors are that Nagy quietly surrendered the play-calling back to Lazor this week. When that happened last season David had the best six-game stretch of his career rushing for 598 yards with seven rushing TDs and 24 catches for 226 yards and one TD. The icing on the cake is that we get to enjoy this change at the same time that the Bears match up against a competitive but defensively inept Lions squad. Sadly his ownership will be high but I am still going to mix him into my GPP’s as well as Cash contests. Happy Monty day!

Alvin Kamara, Saints, $8,400DK/$9,000FD: (18%)

I haven’t been on the Kamara train this season but this is an absolute smash spot against the Giants this week. The Giants are a little better than people give them credit for against the run but they are by no means great. Washington ended up being a random shootout on a Thursday night and they abandoned the run. Atlanta is…..Atlanta right now. Denver is the only other team they faced with a legit run game and they tore them up to the tune of 165 yards on the ground. One thing at least to this point that I will say is that I was mistaken about the volume he would get in the run game. He has exceeded 20 carries in 2 of 3 and while his receiving numbers are down with Winston he is still getting at least four targets a game which still gives him some upside in that regard.

Also Consider: Alvin Kamara (18%), D’Andre Swift (15%), Chubba Hubbard (25%/FD), Najee Harris (15%)

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 4 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.3 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS: Week 3 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.26

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 3 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out the game by game article that Adam put out as it has a ton of information for every single game on the slate. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 3 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.26

****My Christian McCaffrey disclaimer is null and void this week but enjoy locking him in 100% of you lineups on Thursday Night Football****

***Note to all new players: Any players that I list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

Cash:

Derrick Henry, Titans, ($8,600DK/$9,700FD):

I may have to include Henry with CMC as a weekly play in my Running Back DFS breakdown if he goes off again this week. For those who missed the boat on Stix telling everyone to get on the King Henry train last week, you have my sincerest condolences. You will not get him at 5% ownership at any point again this season. He is currently projected as one of the highest-owned running backs this week and will likely remain as such for the rest of the year. With the problems that the Colts are likely to have on the offensive side of the ball this week with a banged-up QB and offensive line, the game script has little chance of going in a direction that keeps Henry off the field. We are looking at another 25 carries and plenty of touchdown equity Sunday.

Chris Carson, Seahawks, ($6,400DK/$7,700FD):

Back to the well again as Carson has another juicy matchup that will likely result in a score that is reasonable for cash game play. His yards per carry, touches, and receiving number were down/non-existent from week one to week two but Carson managed to sneak into the end zone twice. As far as matchups go, you couldn’t ask for more. The Vikings defense is weak across the board and the 55.5 point game total is the best on the slate. I expect plenty of people to target the passing game but Carson will get his usual 12-15 carries, 3-5 targets, and be in a good position for scoring opportunities again.

Saquon Barkley, Giants, ($6,500DK/$6,000FD):

The verdict is still out on this one but I think that week three is going to be the week that everyone decides to roster Saquon. While his production was underwhelming, his snap share went from 48% to 84% between week one and week two, he gets several extra days of rest playing last Thursday, and the Washington Football Team has held both the Chargers and Giants running backs to under 100 yards in the first two weeks. While the Falcons did reasonably well against the Bucs there are two differences. First, Saquon is infinitely more talented than Ronald Jones or Leonard Fournette. Second, and more importantly, if you listened to our conversation about Dean Pees’s Falcons defense in week one, you know that it involves a ton of secondary blitzes, and how that can be attacked by mobile quarterbacks. Once a running QB burns Pees, he will account for it, leaving the second level wide open for a running back to break free. Barkley is too big for a safety, too fast for a linebacker. This is going to be fun. But sadly I do not think we can get him at low ownership. I hope I’m wrong.

Also Consider: Dalvin Cook (or Mattison if Cook is out), Ty’Son Williams, Austin Ekeler

GPP:

Joe Mixon, Bengals, ($6,300DK/$6,700FD):

When it comes to running backs, especially in the modern era of football where shared backfields are the norm, volume is key, and nobody outside of Derrick Henry has more touches than the 49 of Joe Mixon through two weeks. While the Steelers defense is solid as ever Defensive end Carlos Davis and Linebacker Alex Highsmith have both missed practice this week and TJ Watt has been limited with a groin issue, giving us a sneaky opportunity for Mixon to break off some chunk plays at what is looking like depressed ownership. We saw last week against the Bears that Cincy is going to lean on the running game regardless of the game script or defensive strength. And with Big Ben and Dionte Hightower injured to go along with that horrid offensive front of the Steelers the Bengals should not find themselves in a position where they will need to completely abandon the run.

D’Andre Swift, Lions, ($5,800DK/$7,400FD):

At first, glance when you look at the Raven’s defense it looks pretty clear that the one strength they may have is slowing the run and the way to attack them is with the tight ends up the seams. While it is true that tight end coverage has been a huge issue, the underlying reason for it is also the reason that I want to roster Swift in GPP’s. The linebackers are failing terribly in pass coverage responsibilities. Malik Harrison and Patrick Queen have looked especially bad, seemingly forgetting their responsibilities multiple times a drive and leaving huge holes for running backs, full back, and tight ends to attack for huge gains. Swift is not giving us much in terms of rushing volume but his volume in the passing games gives him enormous upside this week in a game total of over 50. As always with him before rostering, check out his practice participation since he is still dealing with a groin issue.

Javonte Williams, Broncos, ($4,900DK/$5,800FD):

My final Running Back DFS play is none other than Javonte Williams. Yes, he ended up burning us last week but I am going right back to the well this week. The game total is pathetic against the Jets at 41 points but the implied total for the Broncos is 25.5 and Denver is a huge favorite. Two things stood out last week. First, Williams was close on three separate occasions to breaking loose for huge plays including two that could have been touchdowns. Second, and most importantly for this game 9 of Williams’s 13 carries last week and 21 of his 27 carries overall have come when the Broncos are tied or ahead. The Broncos should get a few extra short-field opportunities and if you have not seen this guy run yet, please go look. He looks incredible and will be taking over the lion’s share of the opportunities from Melvin Gordon sooner rather than later.

Also Consider: Chase Edmonds, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 3 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.26 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS: Week 2 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.19

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 2 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out the data driven article that Jared put out reviewing week one, we will referenced it heavily for the targets and touches livestream and it provides needed data for this weeks slate. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 2 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.19

I am going to put this at the top of my articles until the status quo changes. If you want to play Christian McCaffrey and can afford him, go for it. His floor/ceiling combination is unmatched from week to week. This just saves me a few minutes for every Running Back DFS Breakdown just stating the obvious.

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

I will add ownership percentages to the article later in the week. Those numbers do not really paint a clear picture until Friday. Plays may adjust due to those numbers so be sure to check back. I’ll update accordingly.

GPP:

Nick Chubb, Browns, ($7,800DK/$8,400FD) 7% OWN:

I thought that Chubb was going to be the big chalk this week in cash games due to talent and matchup. But everything points to 6-8% of rosters having him so I LOVE him for GPP.

Urban Meyer looked lost in his head coaching debut. Choosing to throw the ball 51 times against the worst running defense in the league even though Carlos Hyde averaged 4.9 YPC and James Robinson averaged 5.0. The Browns will not make that same mistake and as far as pure running backs go there is arguably no one better than Chubb. I know that some have a concern with Hunt taking targets and touches but there is no reason to be. He is going to go ham on the Texans this week.

David Montgomery, Bears, ($6,100DK/$7,300):

I am thinking this one ends up in the cash category but I’m waiting on ownership info to come out before moving. After watching the replay of the Bears/Rams I can find no smart reason for why Nagy was taking Monty off of the field for Damien Williams. Why take a guy who is ripping off 8+ yard carries the entire game for anything other than needing a breather for a play? Why has Williams randomly starting drives? Why in God’s name are you running end arounds with Marquis Goodwin? Why do you not utilize play action when you have David Montgomery running the ball? Make no mistake, Nagy’s job is on the line in the coming weeks and if he continues to make these mistakes he will no longer be a part of the Bears organization, and year in and year out Cincy’s defenses allows over 5 yards per carry so doing anything besides handing Monty the ball 25 times right up the middle will tell you all you need to know about his future. Montgomery has been nothing short of a revelation over the last eight games and he somehow looks faster, stronger, and has better vision than at any point in his career.

Damien Harris, Patriots, ($5,400DK/$6,200FD) 7% OWN:

I know he coughed up a fumble but I do not see Bill benching their best running back for a single indiscretion and the coaching staff has already voiced their confidence in his ability to “step up” . No better place to step up than an opportunity against a Jets defense that has been bottom five in every measurable category for almost a decade. He lacks receiving upside but has that ever stopped us from playing guys like Derrick Henry or Nick Chubb? If he gets 20-25 carries it will largely come out even in the end. 160 yards rushing is just as good as 100 yards rushing and 3 grabs for 30 yards.

Also Consider: Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders

Cash:

Chris Carson, Seahawks, ($6,100DK/ $6,700FD) 18% OWN:

I’m thinking that some of you have noticed something about several of my plays this week. When it comes to GPP’s this week something that I am planning to do is target these high total games. While people flock to the receivers and tight ends I am completely comfortable taking a back like Carson due to his ability to catch out of the backfield. The Titan’s defense struggled to stop every facet of the Cardinals offense in week one and the Seahawks are arguably better in every facet. When I first saw that Seattle kept five running backs on the roster going into the first week I was a little worried but those concerns were completely unwarranted as Carson carried the ball 16 times for 93 yards, caught all three of his targets for 26 yards, and accounted for 78% of the running back snaps. While everyone is (justifiably) stacking the receivers, take a lineup or two and replace your second receiver with Carson and reap the benefit.

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, ($6,200/$7,500) 18% OWN

The ownership has heavily skewed towards Zeke as chalk, so while he is no longer a GPP play everything that I saw last week still remains, only now I can recommend as cash only.

One thing stood out to me when I gave the game another watch. Only four running plays of the 77 offensive snaps were designed to take place inside the numbers. Even though Zeke is trimmed down a bit, Pollard is better suited to that style, so it made it appear that Pollard was the guy even though Elliot played 84% of the snaps compared to 24% for Tony. The Bucs were thin defensively in the secondary and the Cowboys were (successfully) beating them out there all night. At the same time, Zeke was tasked with protecting Dak with no Zack Martin on the O-Line and he did a phenomenal job as the Cowboys only allowed ONE sack. Sunday, Martin will be back in action so that need will not be there. The Chargers may have some pieces on defense, but nowhere near the caliber of Tampa, especially up front. Even with Fitzpatrick’s hip injury, Gibson was still producing and ripping off chunk plays with interior runs. While everyone is ready to write Elliott off I am going to lean into him having a huge game. I just think the echo chamber surrounding him has reached an extreme and we get 2019 Zeke in week two.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers, ($7,300DK/$7,000FD)

My final selection for my running back DFS breakdown in none other than Austin Ekeler. It was a little strange seeing him get zero targets in week one but I am willing to chalk that up to a tough Washington defense, the fact that the Chargers did not get him in reps in the preseason, and a leg injury that they wanted to be cautious with. With a 55 point total and a soft Dallas defense, this is shaping up to be a smash spot for Austin. The best part about it is that if you are going to stack this game you are not sacrificing upside due to what should be a heavy utilization in the passing game. Even without a single target in week one he got 15 touches and scored a touchdown giving me a ton of optimism about his upside on Sunday.

Also Consider: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 2 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.19 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 12 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Seahawks at Eagles

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in one of the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Russell Wilson (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)

Pivot: DK Metcalf (DK $17,100, FD $14,000)

Contrarian #1: Carson Wentz (DK $15,600, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Miles Sanders (DK $13,800, FD $13,500)

DK Punts: Seahawks DST ($5,700) or Jalen Reagor ($8,700)

DK Contrarian Punt: Alshon Jeffrey ($2,400)

We’ve got to love Russell Wilson in this game, and he’ll likely be the chalk. The Seahawks should be able to roll out their usual offensively balanced approach in this game, as they’re back to full capacity with their stable of RBs – grinder Chris Carson is back in action and leads the way – and no major injuries to report among their top two WRs. They will be missing TE Greg Olsen, but I expect to see Wilson picking his spots with efficiency against the Eagles secondary.

As with the rest of the league, the Eagles don’t have anyone who can contain the relatively matchup-proof DK Metcalf, and with the athletic receiver seeing just nine targets over the past two weeks, I expect him to have a big game and around 7-10 targets. Since the Eagles do have a strong run defense, they’ll likely run some play action with Carson to get the ball in the hands of Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and TE Will Dissly, who might notch a couple extra looks in this one.

I’m plenty interested in using the Seahawks DST at captain if it gets me Wilson, one of the big two Seahawks WRs and Carson, and there’s already a viable roster construction for large-field GPPs that I’m envisioning which utilizes a Carson Wentz meltdown/replacement with Jalen Hurts. The Seahawks could force him right out of the game with constant pressure, as the Eagles have yielded a league-high 40 sacks this season through 10 games.

If Wentz is successful in avoiding pressure, it’ll be because their defense will help keep the game close and they give plenty of opportunities to Miles Sanders. The Seahawks defense is about league average against the run, but they looked like a much-improved unit in their game against the Cards. WRs Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham probably have the most upside in this matchup, but I’m sprinkling in plenty of Dallas Goedert and will have a few shares of embattled and oft-injured wideout Alshon Jeffrey, who could see more snaps in this matchup.

Week 12 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use more Eagles than Seahawks. Unless something goes terribly wrong and the Eagles defense flips the script, we’re looking at a max of two or three lineups per ten where you could go 3/3 (maybe two) or 4-2 (1/10 at most) in favor of Philly.

DO: Get a little creative with the Eagles offensive performers you use. There’s been talk of replacing Wentz if he struggles, and this is exactly the type of game and DSFS format you could see him put together a second half worthy of inclusion.

DON’T: Fiddle around too much with the non-Chris Carson Seahawks backs, aside from possibly Carlos Hyde. The price on Hyde is steep because of last week’s performance, but we have every indication Carson will lead the backfield in touches this week. A few shares are okay, but don’t go overboard.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Russell Wilson
DK Metcalf
Chris Carson
Tyler Lockett
Carson Wentz
Miles Sanders
Jalen Reagor
Travis Fulgham
Dallas Goedert
Seahawks DST
Will Dissly
Greg Ward
Jason Myers
Boston Scott
Carlos Hyde
Freddie Swain (questionable)
Alshon Jeffrey
Jake Elliott
Jalen Hurts
Jacob Hollister
Eagles DST
Richard Rodgers

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 11 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Cards at Seahawks

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 11 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Let’s get to the game!

Week 11 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Kyler Murray (DK $19,500, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Russell Wilson (DK $17,700, FD $16,500)

Contrarian #1: DK Metcalf (DK $15,300, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #2: DeAndre Hopkins (DK $16,200, FD $13,500)

DK CPT Punt Options: Freddie Swain ($1,800) & Andy Isabella ($3,000)

There are some pricing discrepancies between FanDuel and DraftKings this week that we can take advantage of – in both cash games and tournaments – but the overriding theme this week will be squeezing in both QBs if we can. That’s a hard task, but I think that’s the best cash game strategy and a viable plan for GPPs.

The chalk on both sites is Kyler Murray, and a quick glance at his game logs tells us why he’s top dog emcee: he hasn’t scored fewer than 24.12 DK points in any game this season and he’s already racked up 2,375-17-8 passing and 604 rushing yards with 10 scores (!) on the ground. Only the Bengals offer a more favorable QB matchup than Seattle, which means he could have one of his highest game totals of the season.

Russell Wilson took a step back in Week 10 with just 12.92 DK points against the Rams, but his fantasy resume is just as impressive, with his previous lowest DK point total (24.9) coming in a Week 4 matchup against an upstart Miami defense that’s been mazing in 2020.

The biggest injury situations to monitor are in both backfields, but Arizona’s Chase Edmonds and Seattle’s Carlos Hyde (full practice participant on Tuesday) are my favorite RB options on both teams. If Chris Carson (foot) can go for the Seahawks that does complicate things a bit, but Hyde had a solid game vs. Arizona in Week 7, is absent an official injury designation heading into Thursday night and offers a pretty nice combination of blocking and receiving skills that will be needed in this game.

Carson’s availability won’t be determined until close to game time, but I’m fading him because foot injuries are easy to exacerbate, and we’ve got to take a stand somewhere. As for my dude Chase, I’m on him because I’m just not a huge fan of Kenyan Drake, regardless of if he’s 100 percent and even though he gets a pretty large snap share that often exceeds that of Edmonds. Drake’s one truly enormous game this season came against Dallas in Week 6 at the height of that team’s momentous misery.

Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (knee) is questionable but also expected to play, which slightly mars the option of punting the captain spot with super-cheap Freddie Swain for Seattle. Swain hauled in 3-37-0 on four targets last week and is an under-the-radar deep threat and high-leverage performer that Wilson looks for in the red zone. He’s definitely worth using in some GPPs, especially if Lockett is limited. Anda Isabella is the Arizona analog to Swain – a speedburner who could break the slate with a long TD reception.

Top WR options DeAndre Hopkins (now of “Hail Murray” fame) and DK Metcalf are also worthy of using in any place they can fit, and don’t sleep on Christian Kirk, who is a worthy second fiddle on a Cards team filled with talent.

Kickers, defenses and TEs could make their way into my lineups, but only a smattering, and not in the captain spot.

Week 11 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Count on this to be low-scoring. The projected total sits at 57 and we could easily see this be a 37-31 type of game.

DO: Get plenty of both sides in this game. I just don’t see either team dominating to the point where a 5-to-1 build makes a lot of sense.

DON’T: Forget about the “other” Cards receivers, including Larry Fitzgerald. The NFL legend had 8-62-0 against the Seahawks in Week 7, his best output of the season thus far.

Kyler Murray
Russell Wilson
DK Metcalf
DeAndre Hopkins
Christian Kirk
Carlos Hyde (if Chris Carson is inactive)
Chase Edmonds
Tyler Lockett (questionable)
Kenyan Drake
Larry Fitzgerald
Andy Isabella
Chris Carson (risk-reward)
David Moore (higher if Lockett limited)
Freddie Swain (risky GPP)
Greg Olsen
Jason Myers
Dan Arnold
Zane Gonzalez
Cards DST
Seahawks DST

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 16 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 16 DFS plays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picks to win your GPPs!

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Week 16 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR atIND

DK ($10,100) FD ($10,800)

McCaffrey resumes top dog cash game play of the week after a minorbobble of the crown in weeks 13 and 14. He posted his fourth-highest pointstotal of the season in Week 15 and is once again in a smash spot against astruggling Indy defense.

Chris Carson, SEA vs. ARI

DK ($8,500) FD ($8,200)

Carson doesn’t have much competition for touches anymoreand remains a fire-breathing, yard-churning monster the Seattle backfield. Thematchup here checks all the boxes for favorable, including opponent, probable gamescript and home field, He had 133 rushing yards and two scores in Week 15, andthere’s nothing to prevent him form a similar stat line facing the Cards rundefense.

Also consider:Joe Mixon, Devonta Freeman

Week 16 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Mark Ingram, BAL at CLE

DK ($6,800) FD ($7,600)

I expect the Ravens to avenge the loss the Browns handed them earlier this season with heavy doses of Mark Ingram, who only had 12 cries and one catch in Week 4. Ingram cost $6,600 then and sputtered to just 9.1 DK points, but I’m expecting production twice that this week, as he should handle a few more red-zone touches and be part of the formula to put the game out of reach, The Browns defense is also pretty beat up.

Saquon Barkley, NYG at WAS

DK ($8,300) FD ($8,800)

Barkley’s price has come up, but it’s not outrageous yet – and Washingtonhasn’t had the pleasure of trying to stop Mr. Barkley yet this season. TheGiants were committed to getting him the ball in Week 15, and he responded with112 rushing yards and two scores (to go along with 5-31-0 receiving) and we canexpect positive results again this week. He’s fine for cash or GPP.

Also consider: Marlon Mack, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara

Week 16 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at PHI

DK ($7,900) FD ($8,700)

Elliott gashed the Eagles defense for 111 rushing yards and a score in Week 7 and now faces them in a game that likely decides who wins the NFC East and sends the winner to the playoffs. Although the Eagles defense is usually more vulnerable to the passing game, even Jason Garrett can’t screw this up by eliminating the Zeke factor. It’s not a perfect spot for Zeke, but that’s usually when he surprises you with a monster game by catching a few extra passes and mixing in some big plays.

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. OAK

DK ($6,100) FD (6,800)

Once again, we have a week where nobody is talking about Austin Ekeler, despite a favorable matchup against a division rival that could keep the game close. Last week, Ekeler still managed 10 fantasy points despite low usage and I’m betting he can thump the Raiders with a couple of game-breaking runs or catches. Ekeler’s Kamara-light skillset gives you a huge discount and about the same upside.

Also consider: Aaron Jones, Kenyan Drake

Week 16 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

Melvin Gordon, LAC vs. OAK

DK ($5,600) FD ($7,000)

If it’s not Ekeler, it’ll be Gordon, who’s actually cheaper on DraftKings because of the PPR factor. Melvin stands to get a few extra goal-line/red zone carries this week and the Chargers, in general, should be in a good spot to score a few extra points facing a battered Raiders defensive unit. I’m less interested in FanDuel but his price on DK is a bargain.

Kerryon Johnson, DET at DEN

DK ($4,900) FD ($4,500)

Johnson just got activated, so this isn’t aplay for the faint of heart. But the Lions RB has been practicing the past fewweeks and hasn’t experienced any setbacks, and he regularly occupied the 10-20 fantasypoint range when he was healthy. You’re getting low ownership and a solid price(minimum on FD) on a back who could be in for a workhorse role in Week 16.

Additional plays: Phillip Lindsay, Patrick Laird, Dion Lewis (if Derrick Henry sits)

Monkey Knife Fight DFS Picks of the Week

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This game should feature plenty of offense and both RBs should be in your MKF bets for this one, so pair Joe Mixon and Patrick Laird with DeVante Parker.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week 15 GPP Picks Of Destiny

5 years ago

written by

Week 15 in NFL DFS is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with a high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

David also won back-to-back GPPs!

I am currently in Puerto Rico for the Fanduel World Championship but wanted to provide some of the guys I am looking at this week for my main lineup.

Quarterbacks:

Stud: Jimmy Garoppolo ($8,400 FD)

He is in an obvious great spot against the Atlanta Falcons who travel to the West Coast to face Kyle Shanahan (their old offensive coordinator) and the San Fransisco 49ers. The Falcons will be without their WR2 Calvin Ridley, and honestly, I don’t think they have much of a chance to win here. I am calling for a 49ers blowout. Atlanta has given up 24 touchdowns through the air (tied for 7th most) and probably give up a (at least) few more here. Garoppolo just put up 402 and four touchdowns on the Saints, in New Orleans. If this offense is clicking like it was last week Garoppolo could be your highest scoring QB.

Pivot: DeShaun Watson

Value: Ryan Tannehill ($7,600 FD)

He gets the 27th worst fantasy pass defense in the NFL in the Houston Texans. I rewatched the Texans game this week, and their defensive backs are lost. They allowed Broncos rookie QB Drew Lock to come in and throw for 309 and three touchdowns. Tannehill has been very stable in basically all of his starts as the Titans QB. He has multiple touchdowns in every game except for one and has rushed for three touchdowns in the last five games. I love his price this week and he is in top consideration to make my FanDuel live final lineup. I also like that the Titans can clinch the AFC South with a win on Sunday.

Pivot: Russell Wilson (not on your Chris Carson teams)

Punt: Derek Carr, Kyle Allen, Eli Manning

Running Backs

Stud RB: Chris Carson ($7,400 FD)

Every week you should be targeting the Carolina Panthers rush defense. They have given up five more touchdowns than any other team in the NFL this season. The issue with playing Carson lately has been the Rashard Penny was splitting touches, but now that he is out for the season we can go back to our Seattle bell cow. Carson could be in for 20 touches in this game and WILL get in the end zone at least once. He is my favorite running back on the slate and I will have him in virtually every lineup I make.

Stud Pivot: Christian McCaffrey, Derick Henry, Saquon Barkley (I don’t feel great about it but he is in a good, not great, spot)

Value RB: DeAndre Washington ($6,300 FD) or Josh Jacobs ($7,700 FD)

I like whoever starts but we do not have the official word yet.

We have to watch Josh Jacobs’ news. As I write this he is questionable. IF Jacobs is out I will be locking Washington into my main lineup against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense who has given up on the season. The Jags head to the west coast to get thumped by the Raiders in their last home game ever in Oakland. The Raiders win this game and whoever starts at the running back should give a great day. If Josh Jacobs is starting, feels free to roll him out too.

Update: If it is announced the RB’s will have a 50/50 split, I might have to get off of both of them.

NFL DFS Punts/High Risk: Phillip Lindsay (you can run on KC), Patrick Laird (DraftKings)

I will update again closer to Sunday. Be sure to check back.

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Chris Godwin ($8,400 FD)

Mike Evans is out and Chris Godwin should get fed by Jameis Winston against the Detroit Lions. Our issue all season has been trying to choose bet which Buccaneers wide receiver will put up 30 points, and usually getting it wrong because of the unpredictability of the Tampa QB. Well, that problem is no more. I can’t believe I can actually type Chris Godwin is safe in NFL DFS, but that is the case this week IF we have a healthy Jameis Winston (he has been dealing with a hurt hand).

Stud Pivots: DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Golladay, Devante Adams

Mid WR: A.J. Brown ($6,200 FD)

I hate chasing points but if I am playing Ryan Tannehill I am pairing him with A.J. Brown. Houston is absolutely terrible defending the wide receiver. I was astounded at how bad they looked last week. Brown is going to be the top targeted receiver in Nashville this Sunday and has a very reasonable price tag. If he just gets in the end zone once OR gets 100 yards, he pays off in NFL DFS. If he does both, we are making a lot of money.

Pivots: Jarvis Landry, DJ Moore, Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Sterling Shepard (plenty of options in the mid-tier)

NFL DFS Punt Wide Receivers: Terry McLaurin, Danny Amendola, Larry Fitzgerald, Will Fuller (questionable now), Justin Watson

Tight End Rankings

Zach Ertz
Darren Waller
Ian Thomas
Tyler Higbee
Mike Gesicki
Dallas Goedert
Jonnu Smith (punt territory)

Note: George Kittle is in a great NFL DFS spot, but Jimmy G spreads it around so much, and I don’t think they need to rely on the Big Man in what should be an easy win.

Tight End Pivots: Zach Ertz, George Kittle, David Njoku

Defense

Patriots
49ers
Chiefs
Punt: Raiders
Punt: Giants

I will tweet out when there are NFL DFS updates. Be sure to follow me @tenaciousdjones on Twitter so you don’t miss out!

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5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Premium

NFL DFS Cash Games – Week 15 Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week 15 in DFS and Semi-Finals week for most of your season-long leagues! Hopefully, all of your teams are still in the hunt and you’re ready to continue cashing in your NFL DFS Cash Games. We added on to our incredible season so far here at Win Daily and welcome you all in for another week of cashing – last week’s Cash Game Checkdown included a sample lineup that AGAIN crossed the pay lines with over 160 DraftKings points!

Let’s get right back at it for Week 15 which has the main slate of 13 games.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections,wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you cancertainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFLDFS Cash Games updates!

If you have any questions and would like some further help whenbuilding your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of theirinvestments.

Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build forNFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles movingforward. For Week 15, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Theplayer pool is huge again this week. There are a ton of great value plays atevery position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimalbuilds.
MyNFL DFS Cash Game build for Week 15 will probably start with locking in ChrisCarson and Chris Conley (assuming Chark is OUT).
Somevalue plays that stick out are Eli Manning, Chris Conley, and Ian Thomas.
Plentyof value and positive game-scripts for the cheaper QBs.
Justbecause a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are notcash viable.

NFLDFS Cash Games Quarterbacks

DeShaun Watson ($6,800) – DeShaun Watson under $7K is a joke. We always love picking on this Tennessee passing defense and Watson provides us with a high-floor that not a lot of other QBs on the board bring to the table due to his rushing ability. Watson’s coming off of back-to-back 28+ DraftKings’ point performances and should continue to put up big numbers this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,100) – My savior from Week 14 is back in the write-up again this week with a home game against the Atlanta Falcons’ secondary who rank 26^th in the NFL in pass DVOA. Shanahan is going to have an effective game-plan as he is incredibly familiar with a Dan Quinn defense. The 49ers also have the highest implied team total on the slate at 29.50 points… this should be another smash spot for this 49ers’ offense.

They are an 11.5 point favorite in this one so maybe temper your expectations a little bit as this game-script seems to set up nicely for Raheem Mostert and the rest of the 49ers running backs.
Kyler Murray ($5,600) – Kyler Murray at home against a banged-up Cleveland defense is something I’ll always be interested in. Murray hasn’t had a 20+ point fantasy performance since Week 11 but I think this is the week he gets right. The game has one of the highest totals on the slate currently sitting at 49 points.

NFL DFS Cash Games Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) – Do we need to say anything about Christian McCaffrey? The floor is as high as anyone in the game right now.
Saquon Barkley ($7,700) – Barkley has been struggling to put up points all season long but that is going to change this week against Miami, who ranks 29th in run DVOA. I expect the Giants to have a lead throughout this whole game and that they lean on Barkley in the red-zone and the check-down passing game Eli Manning loves to focus on. If Manning is starting, I love Barkley this week.
Chris Carson ($7,500) – No Rashaad Penny this week. Lock in Chris Carson against the worst run defense in the NFL.
Todd Gurley ($6,000) – Gurley is simply way too cheap in a game with the highest total on the slate. Gurley has been the main focus of this Rams’ offense over the past couple of weeks and should continue to see 20+ touches on Sunday. For this price and the anticipated workload, Gurley should be locked into NFL DFS Cash Games.
David Montgomery ($5,500) – The workload has been continuing to go up for Montgomery over the past three weeks and now he’ll enter a juicy match-up against the Packers who rank 26th in run DVOA. Even the Washington Redskins’ running backs were able to carve up this Packers’ run defense as they total up 122 rushing yards, one touchdown, and an average of 4.5 yards per carry.
Raheem Mostert ($5,200) – It is officially #MostertSzn. At this price and as a double-digit home favorite, I have full faith in Kyle Shanahan to know how to best utilize Mostert against Dan Quinn’s defensive scheme. Atlanta hasn’t been a match-up to target with opposing running backs this season, but they have given up over 24 DraftKings’ points to running backs over their past four games.

San Francisco has the highest implied total on the slate and that should lead to plenty of opportunities for Mostert to do damage on the ground and in the red-zone.
Patrick Laird ($4,500) – Excuse me while I go throw up. I never thought I’d ever write about Patrick Laird. He’s going to be chalk and will get a lot of volume. You only need 10 points out of him to hit value, so feel free to use him (I will not be).

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) – Hopkins has been as consistent as they come over the past two months. He’s a double-digit machine and will continue to offer DFS players a high-floor in Week 15. The Titans rank 23rd in pass DVOA and I fully expect Watson and Hopkins to have their way with this Tennessee secondary.
Chris Godwin ($7,700) – Mike Evans is out for the season so there are a TON of targets to be had for the remaining wide receivers in Tampa Bay. Assuming Jameis Winston continues to chuck the football all over the field regardless of a wide receiver being double-covered, Godwin is going to be busy to end the season.

I’m assuming Godwin is going to be lined up all over the field on Sunday and will draw a lot of Darius Slay in coverage. The volume will be high enough to lower my concerns with some shadow coverage by Slay. I’m confident he’ll do most of his damage in the slot like he usually does, so hopefully he stays inside as much as possible.
Kenny Golladay ($7,200) – Similar situation in Detroit as there is in Tampa Bay. Marvin Jones was recently placed on the IR and this leaves a hefty amount of targets to be had for Golladay. This is a smash match-up against Tampa Bay in a game that is going to be played at a fast pace.
Jarvis Landry ($6,700) – Landry is the only wide receiver consistently producing in the Cleveland offense. We love slot receivers against Arizona, so we’ll keep this one brief. Landry is a lock for 14+ DraftKings’ points and has a probable script for 3X value.
DeVante Parker ($6,400) – Parker cleared concussion protocol and makes for a great cash game candidate as he’s a mortal lock for eight or more targets against a HORRIBLE New York Giants’ secondary who just cut Janoris Jenkins.
Keenan Allen ($6,300) – I have no idea how Keenan Allen is so cheap and so under the radar this week. He is one of my top five at the position and I have him projected for 9-102-1. He’s going to have a big day against this Minnesota secondary.
Golden Tate ($5,900) – My weekly write-up of picking on Miami slot corner, Jomal Wiltz. Look for Tate to come back in the DFS scene this week with a 15+ point performance.

Honestly, everyone of these Giants’ pass-catchers are in play. Sterling Shepard ($5,400) and Darius Slayton ($4,700) are all in incredible match-ups against Miami.
Chris Conley ($3,600) – Hello, Mr. Value. Chris Conley is going to be locked into my NFL DFS Cash Game lineups as long as D.J. Chark is out with injury. Keep an eye on Chark’s status, but it sounds like he’s doubtful to play. Conley should have his way with the Oakland secondary who rank 31st in pass DVOA.

If you’d rather play Dede Westbrook ($4,600), feel free to do so. He’s in a great spot as well.

Tight Ends

George Kittle ($6,200) – Kittle is a freak of nature. If you can afford him or Travis Kelce ($6,500), use them. Kittle is my top tight-end this week.
Zach Ertz ($6,000) – Ertz is the top receiver in this depleted Eagles’ offense. I don’t think he’ll be as busy as we’ve seen in weeks past as the Eagles should be able to steamroll the Redskins. Having said that, Ertz has one of the highest floors at the position and is perfect for a cash game setup.
Ian Thomas ($3,100) – I’m either paying up or paying down to Thomas at tight end this week. Simple as that. Olsen will not clear concussion protocol so this should be all systems go for Ian Thomas in a game where he should be heavily involved as the Panthers play catch-up with Seattle.

Honorable Mention (more for GPPs): Mike Gesicki ($4,000), Tyler Higbee ($3,900), O.J. Howard ($3,500).

Defense/Special Teams

San Francisco 49ers ($3,800)
Philadelphia Eagles ($3,400)
Green Bay Packers ($3,000)
Los Angeles Rams ($2,900)
Chicago Bears ($2,400)

NFL DFS Cash Games Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Chris Carson
RB: Saquon Barkley
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Chris Conley
WR: Chris Godwin
TE: Ian Thomas
FLEX: Todd Gurley
DST: Chicago Bears

5 years ago 0 comments

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