The crew is back this week as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily Charles Schwab Challenge First Round Leader picks!
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex) and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into the Charles Schwab Challenge!
The next event for PGA DFS takes us to “Hogan’s Alley” for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club – where we’re giving you the winning picks!
Jordan Spieth (DK $11,200) – A Texas kid born in the Dallas-Fort Worth golf mecca, Spieth is a former winner here (2016), has never missed a cut at Colonial, and has a host of Top 10s, even in recent years when his game has struggled to find some consistency. With his putter always in form and his ball-striking ranking much better in 2021, Spieth can’t be avoided when discussing the favorites this week.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,300) – JT makes for a great GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship, but he’s still a bit risky given his spotty play recently. PGA DFS can be very frustrating when you’re on a guy (and an expensive guy to boot) and he breaks your heart by missing out on the weekend points and killing your lineup. But there’s nothing worse than fading that same guy the next week and watching him win. For that reason, it’s important to run it back one in a while and I’ll be doing that with JT at Colonial.
Collin Morikawa (DK $10,500) – Morikawa checks all the boxes this week except the putting stats, but the greens are small enough that if he’s doing his thing with his irons he should be close enough to make some putts. One of the best ball strikers in the world, Morikawa hits a smooth fade, doesn’t need length off the tee to win here and that’s a huge plus in giving him the nod over the others in this elite range. Sia, Joel and Nick are all on board, so I feel comfortable using him in my single-entry lineup and GPP core.
Abraham Ancer (DK $9,700) – Ancer has three consecutive Top 10s and while he will be chalky as hell, he’s hard for me to get away from in my builds. I’ll be using him in all formats, and he’ll be a core play for me in stars and scrubs lineups as well. If his putter goes cold he could have problems justifying this price, but he’s been so good with his irons he’s almost always in play.
Also consider: Patrick Reed, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler (GPP)
Corey Conners (DK $9,400) – It may still be wise to steer clear of Conners in GPPs until we see more Top 10 finishes, but he’s a cutmaker who’s 3-for-3 at Colonial and had a T8 in his 2018 debut at this venue. Again – Conners is mostly a cash game play with projected ownership creeping up.
Sungjae Im (DK $9,100) – Im missed the cut here in his 2019 Charles Schwab debut but improved to a T10 (with Spieth and Thomas) in 2020. We know he doesn’t tire easily, so the four grueling rounds he played steadily last week (70-72-73-73) don’t get me off him. The price is fine, and he won’t see massively high ownership.
Justin Rose (DK $8,900) –Maybe Rose will be inspired by Phil’s epic win at Kiawah Island last week, and we know the former winner at Colonial can play elite golf when he’s striking it well. Rose makes for a sneaky GPP play in a week where he won’t be highly owned.
Ryan Palmer (DK $8,600) –Palmer missed the cut last week andhas a vested interest in playing well at his home course. He loves the place, knows the greens really well, wants desperately to win at the venue commonly known as “Hogan’s Alley” and should stand out as a solid GPP play with his history of mixing MCs with Top 10s here.
Cameron Tringale (DK $8,100) – Let’s start with the bad. During round 2 last week, Tringale was -1 when he stepped on the No. 14 tee (he started on the back) and was +11 just four holes later. Then a little alligator walked across the fairway in front of him. That horrific stretch aside, Tringale played well and has the chops to rebound with a soldi finish this week.
Brian Harman (DK $8,000) – Harman looks like more of a cash game play this week, as he’s projected to be very popular (>25%). I won’t be using him too much more than 10-15% in my 20 max builds, but there’s a case to be made for using him and his five straight made cuts at Colonial.
Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,900) – Mr. Pop Stroke is one of the craftiest putters on tour, and the relatively poor ball striking and lack of length off the tee shouldn’t hurt him too much here. Sneds is super risky and shouldn’t be used in cash games but makes sense for large-field GPPs.
Chris Kirk (DK $7,600) – He’s missed two straight cuts, but people haven’t forgotten how good of a golfer he’s been in 2021, because he’s very popular again. I’ll throw out his performance last week because of the course difficulty, and trust he got an early start on getting his T2G and putting under control heading into an event where he’s had two Top 15s in his last four tries.
Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Gary Woodland (GPP), Jason Kokrak (GPP), Charley Hoffman (Cash), Kevin Na (GPP), Kevin Streelman, Emiliano Grillo (GPP)
Peter Uihlein (DK $7,500) – I’m not super excited about the $7-8K price range this week, and the fact that Uihlein is popping so much for his form could mean he breaks my heart this week. I don’t normally play him, but it’s his fourth appearance here and he has top 15s in his last two tries and is playing some of the best golf right now.
Patton Kizzire (DK $7,400) – He’s an awesome putter and his best finishes and have come in Texas. I’m not super excited about him this week because if he’s missing fairways there could be problems, but I think he can hit less-than-driver and be long enough to be in fine shape to contend. Not a cash game play, but usable in GPPs.
Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Another GPP extraordinaire who mixes missed cuts with solid finishes, Varner had a T2 at the RBC Heritage and T49 last week. He also finished T19 at the Honda Classic, which is similar in the focus stats that tend to drive success here.
Russell Knox, (DK $7,300) – Sia loves him for first-round leader, and it’s very tempting to consider him for single-entry this week given the price point and solid performances over his last three events (T21-T18-T39), He finished T8 here in 2019 but we can throw out the MC in 2020 amid the uncertainty of golf’s fanless return at the time.
J.T. Poston (DK $6,900) – I liked him heading into last week but the course and some bad timing on Friday 78 got the better of him. This week, he’s cheap and playing a venue where he’s 3-for-4 with a T10 last year and a T20 in 2018. GPP only.
Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – I use McNealy in GPPs once in a while and this seems like a good spot to go back to him. He’s 2-for-2 and while he’s a feast-or-famine type of golfer (he’s mixed in a solo second, a T4 and a T49 among six missed cuts in his last nine tournaments), this course seems to suit his strengths.
Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,700) – I wish Rodgers could put together four good rounds, because he’s got Top 25 upside. A third round 79 killed his chances at the Well Fargo, but he’s made his last two cuts after a poor April stretch. Worth a look in GPPs.
More value golfers to consider: Cameron Davis, Joel Dahmen, Talor Gooch, Doc Redman (GPP), C.T. Pan (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Henrik Stenson, Mackenzie Hughes, Andrew Putnam
Adam Long (DK $6,200) – I’ll only be using these guys in large-field GPP lineups that focus on stars and scrubs. If you’re trying to cram some combo of Spieth and/or JT with Morikawa/Ancer/Zalatoris in your first three spots, you’re forced to use the next three on guys like Long, who finished T19 here in 2019 and could post another Top 20.
Brian Gay (DK $6,100) – Gay has a T13 and T34 two of his last three appearances at Colonial, and I’m sure he was one of the first golfers my buddy Spades inserted into his lineup this week. The veteran golfer loves small greens (just like C.T. Pan does) and he’s in play as a longshot with Top 25 upside.
Mark Hubbard (DK $6,100) – Hubbard’s name also draws my attention because he an get rally hot with the putter, which is one of the things that could help guys break through this week. He’s much better for single-day lineups but I’m fine using him in 5% of GPPs hoping for a made cut and hot streak with that flat stick.
Additional GPP punts: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Anirban Lahiri
After wrapping up the second major of the year, the PGA Tour now gets ready for Charles Schwab Challenge. Sia, Joel and Nick give their DFS plays and betting picks on the Charles Schwab DFS Breakdown!
Sia – @SiaNejad
Joel – @DraftMasterFlex
Nick- @StixPicks
Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com
This week the PGA Tour is back in Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This Par 70 is 7200 yards which is relatively short, bringing shorter hitters very much in play. I’ll be focusing on APP from all ranges, but particularly 175 and below, and I will also be focusing on driving accuracy. Accurate drives should set up nicely for solid ball strikers who can hit the relatively small greens, thereby avoiding the need to lean on ARG game. You’ll see that theme throughout my Charles Schwab Challenge picks below. Join us tonight for the Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream for more on all these picks and many more. And make sure you get into Discord on Wednesday for our final adjustments, ownership pivots and weather edges.
Collin Morikawa (10500) – After some time off Collin kicked it right back in gear with a Top 10 at the PGA Championship. Morikawa is number 1 on APP over the last 24 rounds which is no surprise and he nearly won this thing last year with a 2nd place finish. I’ll note that I also like Jordan Spieth and I have no issue with wanting to pay up for him. If you’re looking for ownership leverage in this range, Patrick Reed and Daniel Berger are your guys.
Abraham Ancer (9700) – An elite ball striker who has made 8 cuts in a row while never finishing worse than 30th in that stretch. Add to that three Top 10s in his last three tournaments and a 14th place finish last time on this course. Number 1 in my model. He will be garner a lot of ownership so know that going in.
Corey Conners (9400) – Another elite ball striker with a good track record on this course and good recent history. His biggest downfall is ARG which shouldn’t be too big of a factor for an elite ball striker like Conners. Another guy who is likely to have a lot of ownership. If you’re looking for a low owned pivot in a big GPP, Jason Kokrak and Gary Woodland should be under 10%.
Charley Hoffman (8700) – You may sense a theme with the good ball strikers this week, and frankly, I think many others will gravitate to guys like Hoffman because of the value. Hoffman has been a Top 20 machine (Top 20 finishes in 6 of his last 7 tournaments) and in this field I think he can deliver much more.
Cameron Tringale (8100) – The strokes gained metrics took a considerable hit after a horrific Day 2 at the PGA Championship and I’m hopeful DFS’ers are weary of that and stay away from Tringale. As for me, I think he’s a good course fit and I expect him to rebound nicely this week. The game has been up and down lately so he’s more of a GPP play as opposed to cash.
Emiliano Grillo (7900) – Grillo is always a great ball striker who struggles with the short game, particularly the putter. He’s best suited for shorter courses like this one where he doesn’t need to bomb it off the tee. The APP game is in check as he was one of the best last week (gaining over 7 strokes on the field). He actually gained a bit with the putter as well last week which is a great sign.
Chris Kirk (7600) – Kirk is not dominant in any one particular area, but he has a great all-around game, particularly when it comes to shorter courses. There is definitely value here but if initial ownership projections are accurate, then I’m fine with pivoting off of him (I’m willing to eat some chalk, but Kirk will be one of my first pivots if he is highly owned. Stay tuned for @SicilyKid ownership projection article on Wednesday evening).
Russell Knox (7300) – Russ has been pretty good as of late with three made cuts in a row. His APP game has really been clicking and excels in the shorter APP proximities, which is what he will see for the most part this week. The putting has been bad but he’s a veteran and I expect him to find his range. His last three here have been MC, 8th and 20th. He’ll be lower owned making him a very solid GPP play.
Matthew NeSmith (7300) – He’ll keep it in the fairway and will strike it well on APP. As you might expect, the short game has some issues, but I’m happy to take my chances with NeSmith here. He played The Charles Schwab Challenge for the first time in 2020 and finished 49th. Another lower owned guy that will allow you to pick up some chalk in other spots.
Tom Hoge (6800) – A nice course fit as Hoge can keep it in the fairway and is great on APP (last 24 rounds he’s Top 10 in the field). The big issue with Hoge is ARG and PUTT and it’ll need to be a leap of faith in terms of getting your lineup to the finish line, but this is a great course for Hoge so now is the time to consider rostering him.
Vincent Whaley (6200) – What if I told you that there is a guy priced at 6200 who has made 9 consecutive cuts (which rates as tied for the 4th longest cut streak on the PGA Tour). What if that’s all that I told you, would you roster him? I would.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 35-8. See you in Discord.
If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final touches of your Charles Schwab lineups.
The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
**This reset is different then what we’ve seen before. With this in mind, I like all four of the $10,000 plus guys to a degree and have zero problems rostering any of them. I do however have them ranked as such
McIlroy
JT
Rahm
(Yes the spacing is intentional and no Bryson isn’t on here. DeChambeau ranked the worst of the four so hes getting axed all together on my lineups but again, no real issue overall, just a roster construction)**
Sungjae Im $9,300 – Im is simply a machine when it comes to playing and practice. There is no doubt, he’s ready for the tour to resume, as it was reported Im was trying to play in fake tournaments during the break. Im is second in the model and is top 20 in all of the important stats.
Justin Rose $9,000 – Rose is more of a play on history as he won at Colonial Country Club back in 2018. He does everything well, except sometimes he is lacking in DK scoring. At sub 15% ownership, the scoring is the only thing keeps me from locking in Rose as one of my highest owned golfers.
Collin Morikawa $9,100 – If you have been reading my articles at all, you know I’m all about Morikawa. I try to lock him in my core each and every week as he’s simply a cut machine with high upside. His iron game is already elite, but this week he will not be making my core *insert sad face*. While it’s a small sample, Morikawa does not perform all that well on the shorter par 70’s where par 5’s are limited. He will still be in my player pool as I will not miss his next win but not the core.
Gary Woodland $8,800 – Woodland comes in at fourth in my model and his lack of course history (much of the industry go to this week) should keep his ownership sub 15%. Great with a driver out of his hand, Woodland might make my core.
Jason Day $8,300 – As Sicily (Steven) mentioned in his article, Day seems to be the forgotten man this week. Sitting in fifth in the model, Day is both top 30 in fairway play and scoring, which compliments his short game very well. Injury is always a concern, but Day has the talent to win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Shane Lowry $8,600 – Like Day. Lowry is another low owned player. Before everything went down the drain, Lowry was coming off back to back top 30s. At possible sub five percent ownership, he is certainly worth a shot.
Scottie Scheffler $8,400 – Scheffler is no longer a secret and the public has caught up, with possible 15% ownership. Scheffler had three top 30’s coming into THE PLAYERS and finished round one at T8. Ive been a fan of his for a while and was in my core last time out. Scottie can certainly light a score card (in a good way) and despite higher ownership, should be a regular in your lineups.
Tony Finau $8,700 – Speaking of course history, Finau is beast at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Four top 35 in five tries with a second last year. He wasn’t playing his best before the break but Finau has the ability to go low any round and last year showed big hitters can contend as well.
Kevin Na $7,600 – I generally never go back to the well with the most recent winner but Na pops in at number one on the model. His lack of play during the break is a bit concerning but this isnt Na’s first go around. He knows himself the best and maybe the rest will be beneficial. His around the green game is special that few can match on tour. He will be roughly 15% owned but I’ll take my shots.
Byeong Hun An $7,400 – It was between An and Palmer for this spot but An, when on, is hands down better than Palmer. Palmer’s ownership was creeping up as well. An will need his putter to get hot (like usual) but at $7,400 and possible 10% ownership, the play is too enticing to ignore.
Daniel Berger $7,700 – Berger seems to never get the love, and this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge is no exception. With 10% expected ownership I’ll be heavily over weight. Making his appearance in the top 15 of the model, which is lead by his recent play (before the pandemic) and his around the green game.
Russell Knox $7,200 – Knox has been starting to gain some traction in the industry which is a bit surprising with his four missed cuts leading into this week. That said, Knox always plays well here with three top 25 in his last five trips. Still sub 10% ownership allows you to be overweight with a smaller investment.
Cameron Davis $6,500 – You might be asking yourself, who? Davis has five starts on the PGA Tour in 2020 with five made cuts. He’s finished top 10 twice (Sony and The Honda) where his approach game carried him. He isn’t safe at all as its a small sample size but Davis ranked eighth in the model this week and number one in around the green stats.
Jimmy Walker $6,700 – Walker is a grinder at the Charles Schwab Challenge with four made cuts and two top 20’s in his last four tries. What’s nice to know is Walker was playing well before the stoppage with two top 25’s leading up to THE PLAYERS.
Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Charles Schwab Challenge. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!
The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour resumes in Texas as the players face off at Charles Schwab Challenge.
**Like many other sites have said already, it is great to be back!! We here at Win Daily Sports hope everyone was able to stay safe through the pandemic. With golf being one of the first major sports returning to the limelight, it will be interesting to see how the fan-less approach goes. Overall I don’t believe it will have a major impact for the PGA Players but these first few weeks will be interesting to say the least.**
Course: Colonial Country Club
Par: 70
Length: 7,209 Yards
Fairways: Bermudagrass
Greens: Bentgrass (5,000sq ft)
Architect: John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell
Past five winners: ’19 Na (-13), ’18 Rose (-20), ’17 Kisner (-10), ’16 Spieth (-17) and ’15 Kirk (-12)
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.
As you look at the previous winners for the Charles Schwab Challenge, the winners scores are really up and down. What happens is when the wind get involves, scoring is worst. As of this writing the wind doesn’t look to be a problem this week. With that said I will be looking at golfers that score well on both average and hard to score courses just in case the wind picks up.
The Colonial Country Club has many holes with either trees or bunker lined fairways. This puts an emphasis on accuracy and this aspect will take the driver out of many of the golfers hands. Lets look at golfers who perform well with their ball striking on hard to hit fairways.
While bentgrass greens are more sparce in the south, the Charles Schwab Challenge has been running bent since its opening in 1936. The golfers below are in the top 10 when it comes to putting.
Lets take a look with all of these course features combined.
Looking at the scorecard for the Charles Schwab Challenge, four of five toughest holes fall in between 450 – 500 yards. While there are more par 4’s at shorter distance, focusing on the tougher range, along with bogey avoidance and scrambling, should really help avoid the blow up holes.
Most second shots come from 150 – 175 yards out but two of the worst par 3’s land between 175 – 200. Looking at golfers who play well in those ranges will be huge for success along with birdie or better. As always, DK scoring will be evenly weighted in the model, as golfers have to be able to turn in DK points for us to win. Here are the top golfers ranked one through ten with all the key stats combined.
Pay attention to the weather before tee off. IF winds seem to be be picking up in speed, weighing bogey avoidance and scrambling even higher may be the winning ticket. Shorter golfers don’t have to fear the big hitters at this course.
This is the first of possible many tournaments with no fans, and until we see the golfers in action with no crowds, who knows what to exactly expect. We also don’t know the extent of how much time they were able to swing a club, play 18 or even step outside. I would highly recommend playing with a small bank roll this week as they’re just too many variables in play, the first week back.
Courser Setup
Average scoring to possible difficult scoring conditions (wind).
Hard to hit fairways
Bentgrass Greens (Smaller than tour average)
Player Efficiencies
Par 4 scoring: 450 – 500 yards
Proximity: 150 – 175, 175 – 200
Scrambling
Birdie or better
Bogey Avoidance
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at Charles Schwab Challenge. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.
Stat Source: Fantasy National
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
