Tag:

Carson Wentz

Week 13 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 4 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct QB on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

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Week 13 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Sam Darnold, NYJ @ CIN

DK ($6,100) FD ($7,600)

Sam Darnold has been on a roll the past three weeks throwing just one interception. He has not faced the stiffest of competitions with the Giants, Redskins, and Raiders in that span. The offense is clicking and facing another weak opponent in Cincinnati. Going up against a Bengals team that The Bengals allow 251 yards per game and are in a position to lose this game to secure the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Expect a big day at a great price for Darnold.

Jared Goff, LAR @ ARI

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,900)

This is the game where Goff shuts the critics up because he has to. People are now asking the question if he was worth the $110 million guaranteed money and coming off a bad game on Monday night. However, the Arizona Cardinals are the perfect remedy for this Rams offense. Goff is completing 62% of his passes this season and the Arizona Cardinals allow 297.5 yards a game through the pass. The team also allows the most passing touchdowns, passing first downs and quarterback ratings in the league. This is the perfect opportunity for Goff to correct a lot of his mistakes made in the past month.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN @ IND

DK ($5,700) FD ($7,300)

This might come as a shocker but Ryan Tannehill has the second-highest completion percentage this season with 72.1%. The only concern is his yards per game are just over 200, but the Colts give up 34 passing attempts a game and allow 235 passing yards a game. On a shorter slate due to the Thanksgiving games, there might be value going outside the norm for the quarterback position.

Week 13 Quarterback GPP Plays

Aaron Rodgers, GB @ NYG

DK ($6,500) FD ($8,100)

After getting humiliated against the Baltimore Ravens last week on a national level, expect Aaron Rodgers to come out firing in New York. He doesn’t turn the ball over as he has thrown just two interceptions. Rodgers has weapons and a running game to mix in some play-action passes. This Giants defense is not great against the passing attack either. The Giants allowed 260 yards per game and has given 18 touchdowns.

Carson Wentz, PHI @ MIA

DK ($5,800) FD ($7,300)

Carson Wentz has looked like he has taken a step back lately but the injuries to skill position players for the Eagles seem to continue. As of this writing, Zach Ertz missed practice with a hamstring injury and Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffrey were limited. If Wentz has two of the three then he should be great. The Dolphins do not pose much of threat defensively to stop a passing attack that the Eagles can have even without big-name targets. Miami doesn’t apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks as they recorded just 14 sacks so far. They also give up a quarterback rating of 106.8 which ranks as the second-most in the NFL. Expect a nice bounce-back performance from Wentz.

Nick Foles, JAX vs TB

DK ($5,700) FD ($7,500)

Nick Foles has looked like the quarterback the Jags were expecting after returning from injury. In the two games back, he has 47 and 48 attempts so expect the gameplan to continue to be throwing the football. The Bucs are one of the worst teams against the pass in the NFL so this matchup hugely favors Foles. Tampa allows 290 yards a game through the air and is susceptible to huge plays as they have given up 10 throws of at least 40 yards. Foles should be a high-demand player in a lot of lineups.

Week 13 Quarterback Fades

Tom Brady, NE @ HOU

DK ($6,100) FD ($8,200)

If you look at the numbers of Tom Brady, it makes you shake your head. He has the same completion percentage (62.2) as Mitchell Tribusky and a QBR of 55.8, meaning he is slightly above average this season. In his last four games, Brady threw for 237.5 yards a game and just four touchdowns. The offense isn’t counting on him to play a big role. Both the Texans and Patriots run the ball 27.5 times a game so expect the time of possessions to be inflated which could keep Brady on the sidelines.

Philip Rivers, LAC @ DEN

DK ($5,500) FD ($7,300)

Philip Rivers has not been completing passes at a high percentage lately as in the last two weeks, he has completed just 54.2%. Going up against the Denver Broncos defense is no easy order for him. The Broncos allow the fifth-fewest passing yards at 207.5 yards a game. They also allow the fourth-fewest passing first downs so moving the chains is going to be difficult as well. Expect another struggling effort for Rivers as his upside isn’t great in this matchup.

Baker Mayfield, CLE @ PIT

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,600)

This has the making of an ugly performance for Baker as it seems a lot will be going on. This is the Steelers first time to “get even” with the Browns since the brawl a few weeks ago. Nothing like that should happen but the Steelers will be playing with extra motivation. OBJ is questionable at the time of this writing and a limited team could struggle in this environment. Baker struggles in both road games and the fourth quarter so don’t expect much out of him in this game.

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Aaron Rodgers over 277.5 passing yards and Daniel Jones over 241.5 passing yards.

Aaron Rodgers should easily eclipse this with the reasons I mentioned in his section above. Daniel Jones has the big arm and Green Bay allows 238 yards of passing a game so expecting Danny Dimes to do slightly better isn’t that much of a difficult decision.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL DFS Week 12 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & Sticks

Javier Prellezo 4 years ago

written by Javier Prellezo

The NFL DFS Week 12 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & Sticks focuses on WR and TE plays. The two also embark upon being the second wave to attack what will be a brutal Week 12 main slate.

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Week 12 NFL DFS With DFS Pro Javi & Sticks – WR and TE

Among the other topics DFS Pro Javi & Sticks discuss in the Week 12 Podcast is the favorite plays at WR and TE. Sticks and Javi are at a crossroads this week , but have some similar likes.

The duo also looks at the spots that could be DFS gold and the challenge that will come from finding good plays in a schedule lacking in quality DFS matchups.

In this Week 12 NFL DFS podcast, Sticks and Javi have have a discussion on where they see themselves focusing on. Javi seems to have a heavy focus on the Raiders and Jets game while Sticks is all in on some Lions, Tim Patrick, and other random plays that seem to work. There is a method to their madness as they continuously win each week.

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4 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

NFL DFS Week 12 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW

Brandon C. Williams 4 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The NFL DFS Week 12 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW focuses on DFS Pro Javi’s big weekend that brought him to the brink of very long green (think millions). The two also embark upon being the first wave to attack what will be a brutal Week 12 main slate.

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Week 12 NFL DFS With DFS Pro Javi & BCW

Among the other topics DFS Pro Javi & BCW discuss in the Week 12 Podcast is whether Eagles QB Carson Wentz is a good play following a frustrating Week 11 matchup against the Patriots, when is a good time to back away from Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey and if we have seen the end of Tom Brady as a Fantasy-viable option.

The duo also looks at how Raiders-Jets could be DFS gold and the challenge that will come from finding good plays in a schedule lacking in quality DFS matchups. DFS Pro Javi & BCW also talk about how Cowboys-Patriots is a must avoid game.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 6 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Week 6 DFS QB Picks gives us an All-In game along with a couple of matchups that feel more like Opposite Day. It’s also a week where a Dolphins quarterback (stop laughing, damn you!) has value and Carson Wentz feels like a banana peel waiting on someone to step upon him.

Main slate’s the thing, so you’re on your own for Giants-Patriots (Thursday night), Steelers-Chargers (Sunday night) and Lions-Packers (Monday night). The Week 6 bye also means no Bills, Bears, Colts nor Raiders.

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Week 6 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Matt Ryan, ATL at ARI

DK ($6,100), FD ($8,400)

Ryan shares the league lead attempts per game with the Rams’ Jared Goff, as both average 44.4 attempts per game. In what will be a matchup between the third (Falcons) and fourth (Cardinals)-worst Fantasy defenses against opposing quarterbacks, I don’t suspect Atlanta will suddenly discover the ground and pound to succeed.

Only Dak Prescott has more air yards (1,006) than Ryan’s 972, although Ryan has a 683-600 edge in yards after catch. With a generous over/under of 52, I’d play Ryan since there will be a number of other quarterbacks who will have higher ownership. Both the Falcons and Cardinals allow 2.4 passing TDs per game, so expect Ryan to stay on average.

2) Russell Wilson, SEA at CLE

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

The scary part about Wilson is that he’s beginning to scramble more. That translates into 8.0 per carry each time Wilson scrambles away from would-be sackers. The Browns looked disinterested in Monday’s loss and played much of the second half as if they were thinking about the menu on the flight back.

Myles Garrett be damned, the Browns are going to struggle containing Wilson’s corps of physical skill position players, including WR D.J. Metcalf, TE Wil Dissly and RB Chris Carson. Wilson is also second only to Prescott in air yards per pass attempt, and as deadly accurate as he’s been much of the season, that should parlay into devastatingly good numbers.

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Week 6 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Deshaun Watson, HOU at KC

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,400)

Keep in mind the Chiefs are 19th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. That should temper his ownership, but it won’t. Watson could have WR Kenny Stills back, and there’s little reason to think DeAndre Hopkins will be neglected as he was last week when Will Fuller V had 17 of Watson’s 33 targets. Kansas City does allow 133.6 yards per game on the ground, and it wouldn’t shock me if head coach Bill O’Brien selects to go methodical instead of a potential track meet.

2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. HOU

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)

Salary and ownership keeps him out of Cash Game consideration. If Watson will be the most owned of Sunday’s main slate, then Mahomes will be right behind him. The Texans are 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing QBs and 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing receivers. Signs are indicating that Tyreek Hill could be back in the lineup, enhancing Mahomes’ 10.4 average depth of target, third-best in the league. One concern is his bad throw rate of 20.5%, fourth-highest among eligible QBs. Keep that in mind considering that Texans DE J.J. Watt is starting to hit his stride.

3) Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. PHI

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,400)

He’s at his best when lining up with three wide receivers. Cousins has a rating of 111.8 and a 71.7% completion rate when he has three wideouts at his stead. Cousins is also pretty damn effective with a lone setback, pulling in a 108.9 rating while completing 75% of his passes. Even with the stellar performance against the Jets on Sunday, the Eagles are still 29th overall against the pass. He’s still enough of a bargain to play in GPP format.

4) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. ATL

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,700)

As earlier mentioned, the Falcons are 30th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs. We saw Murray rush for 93 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win, making his running ability (10.9 yards per scramble) an added problem for an Atlanta defense that gives up 263.2 yards in the air. The injuries to the Cards’ receiving corps is a mild concern, but RB Chase Sheffield has offered a surprising source of depth that shouldn’t impact the number of targets RB David Johnson gets.

5) Gardner Minshew, JAC vs. NO

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

Good Number: Cracked 20+ Fantasy points for the first time. Underrated runner with a 8.3 yards per scramble mark.

Bad Number: Modest average depth of target (8.0) is 16th overall. Saints are 28th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers, which means Minshew must be more aggressive.

6) Andy Dalton, CIN at BAL

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,000)

Good Number: He’s completed at least 20 passes in each of his five games. The Bengals have spent much of the season in catch-up mode, so expect Dalton to maintain his average of 40.8 attempts per game.

Bad Number: Currently on pace to be sacked 64 times. Help, please.

7) Carson Wentz, PHI at MIN

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Just how good would the Eagles be if Wentz played the entire game as if were the second half? Wentz has a 106.8 passer rating with a 6-0 TD:INT margin after intermission.

Bad Number: Nine dropped passes from his receiving corps. DeSean Jackson comes back WHEN?

8) Jared Goff, LAR vs. SF

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Fourth in the league with 891 air yards. We knew the Rams had a top-tier Fantasy receiver, but we didn’t know it would be Cooper Kupp, at least not this soon.

Bad Number: No QB has been blitzed more than Goff, who has seen extra defenders in the backfield 79 times. To his credit, though, Goff has been hit just seven times.

9) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at LAR

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: Has yet to produce a monster yardage outing, but you have to like the 69% completion rate despite not having a wide receiver with more than 17 targets.

Bad Number: Without a receiver with more than 17 targets, Garoppolo’s reliance on George Kittle could be comprised by a Rams defense that does a decent job containing TEs.

10) Dak Prescott, DAL at NYJ

DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000)

Good Number: Currently the only passer with more than 1,000 air yards (1,006).

Bad Number: Tied with Jared Goff with a league-high 11 dropped passes. You can make a good case for the Cowboys being 5-0 if his receivers had better hands.

Week 6 DFS QB Picks – Punt & Value Passers

1) Josh Rosen, MIA vs. WAS

DK ($4,500), FD ($6,400)

The Redskins have the second-worst Fantasy defense against quarterbacks, and Rosen gets a healthy receiving corps. He’s a very strong value play.

2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. CIN

DK ($6,900), FD ($8,000)

Jackson will lose some trust after throwing three picks in Week 5. This could be his best game to date when it comes to running the ball, as the Bengals allow 30.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, a total second only to the Falcons.

3) Teddy Bridgewater, NO at JAC

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

Don’t count on a lot of passing yardage from Bridgewater. At best, he’ll offer DFSers a poor man’s version of Jacoby Brissett.

4) Marcus Mariota, TEN at DEN

DK ($4,900), FD ($6,500)

Throwing the ball on the Broncos remains an unwelcome task, as Denver has the fifth-best Fantasy defense against opposing passers. It doesn’t help Mariota’s cause that he’s had 10 passes dropped on him.

5) Joe Flacco, DEN vs. TEN

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,600)

At the very least, Flacco is beginning to make a star out of second-year wideout Courtland Sutton, who has six receptions of better than 20 yards and has converted 20 of his 26 receptions into first downs.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

10/8 Win Daily Sports Podcast: Week 6 QBs and Waiver Wire

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The 10/8 Win Daily Sports Podcast, co-hosted by Brandon C. Williams and Antonio D’Arcangelis, looks at the best quarterback plays of Week 6 along with a look at the Waiver Wire.

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PODCAST: Brandon and Antonio look at the best QB options for Week 6.

The 10/8 Win Daily Sports Podcast answers why Matt Ryan a better Cash Game Play than either Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson and how the Eagles-Vikings game can be fool’s gold for both Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins.

Seriously, Josh Rosen has Week 6 Fantasy value. Why it might be time to stop buying into Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense. The podcast concludes with a look at the top players available on the Week 6 Waiver Wire.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

10/1 Podcast: Week 5 QB Picks and Waiver Wire

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The 10/1 Podcast features Brandon C. Williams and Antonio D’Arcangelis looking back at an odd Week 4 of quarterback play and an early outlook on Week 5. The two also discuss the names to grab on the waiver wire.

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Fantasy Football Podcast: Why Jameis Winston is a Cash Game Play and why its time to bail on Dak Prescott

The 10/1 Podcast answers what does Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers have in common that could hurt their DFS totals? Is Week 5 an opportunity to go all-in on lesser passers like Kyler Murray and Mason Rudolph?

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 5 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Welcome to Week 5 of DFS QB Picks, a world where Gardner Minshew II has more Fantasy points than Tom Brady. It’s also a world in which Jacoby Brissett is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes and Lamar Jackson is on pace toward 4,440 passing yards and 952 rushing yards.

It’s also the same world where Patrick Mahomes has the most Fantasy points, so the world isn’t that unusual.

As usual, it’s the main slate that has our focus, so Rams-Seahawks (Thursday), Colts-Chiefs (Sunday night) and Browns-49ers (Monday night) get slight mention. Week 5 is a bye for the Lions and, alas, the Dolphins.

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Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Jameis Winston, TB at NO

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Uh…let him air it out? It’s worked the past two games, as Winston has completed 51 of 87 passes for 765 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The Saints are 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and while the 1.5 TD passes per game is modest, they have also given up 24 yards and a score per game on the ground to opposing passers.

With Matt Stafford off this week, Winston has the league’s best average depth of target at 10.8 yards. He leads all passers with 8.7 air yards per pass completion and is second to Matt Ryan with 759 air yards. The Saints are 23rd in yards per completion, and with that game in a closed environment, I’d throw away any past Winston has had against the Saints and trust that Bruce Arians will let him whip it all Sunday afternoon.

2) Tom Brady, NE at WAS

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,600)

He managed just four Fantasy points against the Bills last week, but gets a huge rebound outing on the road against a Redskins defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at 112.4. Only the Dolphins have a higher touchdown percentage (10.3%) than the Redskins’ 7.6%, and their pass rush (five sacks) is almost non-existent.

Brady averaged 27.6 Fantasy points in his first three games, yet there is still the feeling we have really seen Brady at his most lethal. He has had only three of his 139 pass attempts dropped, and his modest numbers only enhance the belief that some poor secondary is going to 370 yards and five TDs dropped on them sooner or later. Bet on the sooner. Air raid sirens on the Atlantic seaboard go off this Sunday at 12:59 PM Eastern.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. ATL

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,000)

You seriously have to worry about Watson’s durability. He’s been sacked 18 times, putting him on pace for 72. Fortunately for Watson, he’s facing a Falcons defense that has recorded just five sacks and has allowed 1.8 TD passes per game. His three rushing touchdowns bolsters his GPP standing, but Houston’s inconsistent play makes Watson too much of a risk to consider him as a Cash Game player. The Falcons may not get to the passer with frequency, but they are ninth in fewest passing yards allowed.

2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. IND (Sunday night)

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)

He will be grossly overused, but the Colts are 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. The 2.3 TD passes per game given up by Indy is amplified since Mahomes didn’t throw one in the win against the Lions. I’d look for him to bounce back with a monster effort with the national spotlight on him.

2) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. GB

DK ($6,000), FD ($8,200)

Prescott has thrown six touchdown passes and averages 249 yards against the Packers in two previous appearances. He’s been sacked just three times this season, and he’s due a strong rebound after averaging a paltry 6.76 yards per attempt in Sunday’s loss to the Saints. His Y/A and adjusted yards per attempt have dipped with each game, making you wonder how long it will be before it becomes Ezekiel Elliott’s offense once and for all. Green Bay is also fourth in net yards per attempt, lending further reason to keep him as a GPP.

3) Aaron Rodgers, GB at DAL

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,800)

Counting the postseason, Rodgers has thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of his last six games against the Cowboys. Green Bay is 26th in rushing yardage and 27th in average per carry, making this a game where Rodgers goes north of 30-35 passes. A healthy Davante Adams will make him a strong GPP option. Adams is fifth among receivers with 150 yards after the catch and gives the Packers the needed stretch threat to compensate for their struggles on the ground.

4) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. NYJ

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)

Wentz has delivered at least 25 Fantasy points and multiple touchdown passes in three of his first four games. The Jets are sixth overall in run defense and have allowed just four touchdown passes, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Wentz puts up numbers similar to last Thursday’s win over the Packers: multiple scoring strikes despite modest yardage totals. Depending on the health of DeSean Jackson, my projections for Wentz could change since the Jets lack the offense to trade shots with the Eagles.

5) Matt Ryan, ATL at HOU

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Ryan leads the league with 777 air yards and is fifth in pass yards after the catch (548).

Bad Number: Interceptions remain an issue, and the Texans’ pass rush will help them improve on the one interception they have recorded this season.

6) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. LAR (Thursday night)

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Third in air yards, Wilson is also averaging 32 Fantasy points per game at home.

Bad Number: Good things rarely happen when Wilson has a bad throw. His 13.5% completion rate on bad throws is 18th overall.

7) Jacoby Brissett, IND at KC

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

Good Number: Fantasy point totals have gone from 19 to 21 to 24 to 27. A 30-point is likely considering the Chiefs are 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, and we all know how Brissett likes his tight ends.

Bad Number: Only four other quarterbacks have a worse air yards per pass attempt than Brissett’s 3.1.

8) Lamar Jackson, BAL at PIT

DK ($7,100), FD ($8,300)

Good Number: Entering Week 5, Jackson is one of only four quarterbacks with average depth of target of more than 10 yards (10.2).

Bad Number: Of his 134 attempts, 22 have been labeled as bad passes. Sunday was a reminder of how raw of a passer Jackson still is.

9) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. DEN

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Having a dangerous threat like Austin Ekeler has helped Rivers produce 596 passing yards after the catch, the third-best total in the league.

Bad Number: It would help if Rivers’ receiving corps had better hands. He’s tied for fifth with six drops.

10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at SF (Monday night)

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Guess who’s right above Rivers in passing yards after the catch? This guy (597).

Bad Number: Guess who’s tied with Rivers with six passes dropped? Yup. This guy.

Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Kirk Cousins, MIN at NYG

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

Cousins’ stock is low, and he’ll have few users against a Giants defense allowing 295 yards and 2.3 TD passes per game. He’s 24th in yards after the catch (370), which is 43 more yards than what Giants pivot Daniel Jones has produced in two games.

2) Jared Goff, LAR at SEA (Thursday night)

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

The 517 yards were impressive, but Goff is still only getting 5.1 yards after catch per completion. Seattle is middle of the pack in Fantasy points allowed, yet could take advantage of Goff’s excessive passing due in part to a running game ranked 22nd overall. A 300-yard game is possible, but it will be one pockmarked with sacks and interceptions.

3) Kyle Allen, CAR vs. JAC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

Even with Jalen Ramsey available, I’d consider Allen a good punt option here. The Jaguars are 10th in passing yards allowed and have only one interception in 141 attempts against them. J-ville is 27th in yards gained per pass completion, and Christian McCaffrey allows Allen to stretch this overrated secondary.

4) Kyler Murray, ARI at CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,400)

Sweet Jeebers, young man! Can we work on that 3.1 air yards per attempt, please? Murray has a chance to get fat, full and happy at the expense of a Bengals defense that is 29th in yards per completion at 13.6.

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. BAL

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

The Ravens have the highest yards per completion (14.4) and are 29th in passing yards per game. Rudolph looked more comfortable in the pocket on Monday night and should be able to get his receiving corps a splash play or two. He is a sneaky good play among the Week 5 DFS QB Picks.

6) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. MIN

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,000)

He’ll give you around 35 attempts, and the promising outing from Wayne Gallman helps take pressure off Jones. However, the Vikings allow just 5.5 yards per catch, making Jones more of a 2-QB bet than a stand-alone starter.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 4 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

The Kiddie Corps of Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones defined the state of QB play in Week 3. As the Week 4 DFS QB Picks column starts rolling, expect the big boys to step and deliver.

As usual, we’re focusing on the main slate, so Eagles-Packers (Carson Wentz v. Aaron Rodgers) on Thursday night and Dak Prescott (Cowboys-Saints on Sunday night) won’t get a lot of focus.

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Week 4 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Phillip Rivers, LAC at MIA

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)

Any quarterback is a Cash Game play against the Dolphins, who allow 36.36 Fantasy points per game to opposing passers. Rivers was sacked five times in the loss to the Texans on Sunday and remains 0-fer since 2015 when he has attempted more than 40 passes.

This will be the week where Rivers gets his air yards per attempt healthy. He’s sitting at 3.0, nearly a yard less from last season. Look for his 7.8 passing yards after catch per completion to get fat as well.

2) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. CAR

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200)

Like Rivers, Watson is getting 7.8 yards after catch per completion. He’s also been blitzed 10 times per game, yet his 7.7 yards per scramble is making defenders pay dearly. An underrated sign of a potential breakout is that Watson has cut down on his bad throw percentage, paring it to 12.9% after after last season’s 16.6%

Carolina remains an above-average defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, yet are 30th in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing passers. That’s a strong sign that Watson could rack up 40-50 rushing yards and a score in a game that will be more offensive friendly than advertised.

3) Dak Prescott, DAL at NO (Sunday Night)

DK ($6,300), FD ($8,400)

Gotta add him here if you’re playing the full Sunday slate. Saints are 30th in QB-friendly Fantasy production, with them allowing a combined 348.7 yards and 3.3 TDs per game from them. This will be a track meet that makes Prescott a strong CG play for another week.

3) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. OAK

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300)

Count on Brissett to continue the upward trend of his Fantasy output. He posted 20.8 Fantasy points last week and hit 8.4 yards per attempt with another multi-TD passing performance. Oakland is 22nd in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposition passers while allowing 295 yards per game.

Brissett completes nearly 72 percent of his passes, and I’m all-in with his 121 TD%+ rate. Andrew Luck he’s not, but Brissett is a subtle assassin that will be a bargain about Week 4 DFS QB Picks.

4) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. KC

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)

Stafford let a lot of his down with his lackluster effort against the Eagles, but I have just enough blind faith in him to again offer him as a Cash Game passer. He’s getting a solid 12.4 yards per completion and his 7.7 average depth of target will play well, especially with rookie TE T.J. Hockenson, who faces a Chiefs defense that is 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing TEs.

The Lions have been sure-handed thus, as Stafford has had just two of his 107 attempts dropped. He’s produced 5.9 air yards per pass completion and I think he’ll be up to the task of matching up with Patrick Mahomes in what should be a game on heavy stack alert.

5) Russell Wilson, SEA at ARI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)

I don’t suspect Wilson will attempt 50 passes this week, but he should come close to the 27.4 Fantasy points per game he has averaged thus far. Wilson is getting 9.9 yards per completion and has averaged 300 yards per game without throwing an interception in 105 attempts.

The Cardinals are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks and have given up a league-high 47 rushing yards per game to opposing passers. I can see 310-320 yards passing and at least one rushing score of out of Wilson.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Patrick Mahomes, KC at DET

DK ($7,500), FD ($8,400)

News flash: The Lions are eighth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. That’s not hot dog water considering that Phillip Rivers and Carson Wentz are among the pivots (Canadian term) they’ve faced. Of all of his PlayStation-level numbers, it’s Mahomes’ 9.6 yards after the catch per completion — without Tyreek Hill — that’s most impressive.

2) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. WAS

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

You know they’re going to throw the ball now that Saquan Barkley is out until perhaps after Thanksgiving. Jones is a strong value play against a Washington defense that is almost as Fantasy QB-friendly as the Dolphins. giving up 34.29 FP per game. Much of his 13.6 YAC per completion came from Evan Engram, but against a team that allows three TD passes per game and 25 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, I’d be willing to play Jones in a lineup or two.

3) Tom Brady, NE at BUF

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800)

Tommy hasn’t been so Terrific against the Bills recently, posting a 3:4 TD:INT rate in his past four games against them. His yards per attempt have bounced from 8.60 to 5.25 YPA in the same span. He’s here because the Pats’ run game is inconsistent, which means he’ll throw around 30-35 times. There’s risk, as the Bills are sixth overall in limiting Fantasy points to opposing QBs.

4) Jared Goff, LAR vs. TB

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)

Let’s not give Goff too many slices of the Pie of Blame. He’s had five dropped passes already after having 13 last season. His air yards per completion is cut more than half, while his average depth per target is almost split in two. The Buccaneers got shredded by a rookie QB last week. and Goff has way too much firepower to continue languishing as an afterthought.

5) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. PHI (Thursday Night)

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,700)

The better of the two QBs for Showdown formats. The Eagles still allow 300 yards per game and Rodgers is too damn good to go a fourth straight game under 15 Fantasy points.

6) Carson Wentz, PHI at GB (Thursday Night)

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700)

Likely another game without DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey. Yes, the seven drops in the loss to the Lions is crippling to his numbers, but how much longer will we dodge the question of whether we’ve been sold a bag of goods on how great Wentz is supposed to be. He’s likely Matthew Stafford when everyone wants him to be Tom Brady.

7) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. TEN

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,900)

The interceptions (six) remain an issue, but he did get past the 20 FP barrier in the loss to the Colts. I’ll keep waiting for his average depth per target to get beyond his current 6.6. They’re not dropping ball in the ATL, as Ryan has had just two of his 123 attempts plop out of his receivers’ hands. I’ll bet this is a high-scoring affair with Ryan outslugging Marcus Mariota.

8) Jameis Winston, TB @ LAR

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Has averaged 384 yards and 2.5 TDs in two previous games against the Rams.

Bad Number: Uh, Jameis…about that 2.5 air yards per pass attempt…

9) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. SEA

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: He’s averaging 45.6 attempts per game.

Bad Number: The 2.86 yards per attempt against the Panthers makes me sleep with the lights on.

10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at BAL

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: A 7.4 YAC per completion is due to rise once he snaps out of his early season funk.

Bad Number: 11.3 Fantasy points per game does not scream “Breakout Star.”

Week 4 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Andy Dalton, CIN at PIT (Monday Night)

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,100)

Decreasing Fantasy points per game since Week 1. Steelers are giving up 306 yards and 2.3 TDs to opposing passers, so Dalton could get Captain’s status for Showdown.

2) Derek Carr, OAK at IND

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,100)

Colts are 28th vs. opposing TEs, so this should be a good outing for Darren Waller. His production could boost Carr into the outer edge of GPP performers.

3) Kyle Allen, CAR at HOU

DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800)

If Allen can get his WRs involved, he makes for a sleeper play. The Texans are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wideouts.

4) Marcus Mariota, TEN at ATL

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,900)

Hovering at under 61% completion rate, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in 90 attempts and his running skills on a fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium makes him intriguing.

5) Josh Allen, BUF vs. NE

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,400)

Low-end boom/bust option. Running ability could outshine his shaky passing numbers.

6) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. CIN (Monday Night)

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,500)

Expect the Steelers to open things up for Rudolph. Completion rate will be scary, but he has the weapons to deliver 4-5 big plays on Monday night.

5 years ago 0 comment

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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It’s Week 3 of DFS QB Picks. Let’s all pray it’s less brutal than Week 2.

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemien were all KO’ed with various forms of injuries, with Roethlisberger done for the season, Brees is out for up to six weeks, Darnold is down until Week Five and Siemien is likely to be in dry dock for a hot minute.

I think Florida Evans put it best.

As usual, we’ll focus on the main slate of Sunday afternoon games with a brief nod to Sunday night’s Rams-Browns and Monday night’s Bears-Redskins contests.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,400)

Dak Prescott is a legit QB1. There. Another thing I never suspect I’d type in 2019. Prescott has 447 completed air yards and six touchdown passes along with 81 yards rushing. Someone wants a new contract. He’s only made two bad throws in his first 62 attempts, so it’s all the more reason to run with Prescott against the most QB-friendly defense in Fantasy football.

Miami traded Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers on Monday, basically further declaring their secondary an open city for Prescott to march through. The Dolphins were 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers with Fitzpatrick, so I will buy into the unlikely and play Prescott in Cash Game formats, with the added bonus of at least 40 rushing yards and the prospect of a ground touchdown.

2) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. NO

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Wilson is averaging a solid 20.4 Fantasy points per game. He’ll move beyond solid against the Saints, who are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans is also 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers, a scary reality considering that 80% of Wilson’s 496 passing yards have come after the catch.

I think we’ve seen the peak of Wilson’s rushing. Don’t get it twisted: he can still hurt opponents on the ground, but the maturity as a passer makes his rushing attempts more precise than just a sheer desire to do so. That said, I’ll predict Wilson gives you a rushing TD on top of a big passing afternoon.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. HOU

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

On a bad day, Rivers still threw for 293 yards. He’s not Gardner Minshew and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will throw more fear into the Texans secondary than the Jaguars’ middling receiving corps did. Rivers has never recorded a 300-yard game against the Texans, but he’s averaged 3.5 TD passes against them. He’s averaged 10.83 adjusted passing yards per attempt versus the Texans.

Rivers is thriving off oyards after completion, amassing 479 of his 626 yards via that route. Much of that is credited to Allen and running back Austin Ekeler, who have combined for 56,5% of Rivers’ 46 completions. Creating havoc after the catch will be a must since Rivers will have to account for where DE J.J. Watt lines up.

Rivers also tends to get more accurate as the game goes on, completing 65% of pass attempts 21-30 and 80% beyond 30 attempts. This game should be a slugfest, so I’d bet on Rivers going well north of 30 attempts.

4) Deshaun Watson, HOU at LAC

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200)

So the Jaguars remembered how to play defense. Watson burned a host of Cash Gamers last week, but I’m counting on a rebound on Sunday. With rushing scores in each of his first two games, Watson’s running only enhances his value. Although he’s getting just 4.9 air yards per completion thus far, Watson has added nearly two yards to his yards after the catch per completion from last season..

Watson has six big plays in his first two games, with his receivers (DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V and Kenny Stills) each with a pair. The Chargers are middle of the pack when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, but their 190 yards allowed will be tested — and passed — by Watson and the Texans on Sunday.

5) Jameis Winston, TB at NYG

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300)

The Giants are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, giving up 329.5 yards and 2.5 TD passes per contest. Winston will have a healthier Mike Evans this week, and the progression from Week 1 to Week 2 is going to carry into Week 3.

If the Buccaneers want an effective Winston, they should keep him in single RB looks. His passer rating is 88.5 when in single sets compared to a 63.6 when lined up in shotgun. It’s a small sample, yes, yet again keep in mind that Week 3 will essentially feel like Week 1 for Evans. Winston’s under the radar right now, which is why the value and upside are a perfect Cash Game pairing.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Matthew Stafford, DET at PHI

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)

Philly is giving up 350 yards and three touchdown passes per game. There’s nothing to suggest anyone in that secondary is going to slow down Kenny Golladay. The Eagles have allowed eight completions of better than 20 yards and 368 yards after the catch. This screams Field Day for Stafford.

2) Tom Brady, NE vs. NYJ

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800)

In eight of his last 10 meetings against the Jets, including the past six, Brady has thrown at least two touchdown passes. He averaged better than 10 yards per attempt in the two games against them last season. Brady’s come out of the gate with an average of 13.8 yards per completion, his highest since 2011. The yardage totals, however (he has just one 300-yard game versus the Jets since 2014), is the main reason I can’t suggest him for Cash Games.

3) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. DET

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700)

Alshon Jeffery (calf) is unlikely. DeSean Jackson (groin) is out, so ownership may be low. Wentz is magic after halftime, completing 35 of 48 passes for 385 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a sharp contrast from going 18 of 34 for 159 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the first 30 minutes of play.

4) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. ATL

DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800)

Yes, T.Y. Hilton is getting his targets, but what I like about Brissett is how he’s utilizing TEs Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. The duo have caught 9 of 12 targets, with Ebron catching one of Brissett’s five touchdown passes. The Colts are averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which strongly suggests Brissett will have opportunities for downfield shots against the Falcons that he didn’t have in the first two games against the Chargers and Titans. He’s perhaps the best value play of the week.

5) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. BAL

DK ($7,600), FD ($9,200)

The Ravens are fifth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. They did give up 349 yards to Kyler Murray on Sunday, but kept him out of the end zone. I don’t suspect they’ll do the same against Mahomes, who threw for 278 of his 443 yards against Oakland in the second quarter. He looked somewhat ordinary outside of that insane 15-minute run. Mahomes is averaging 10.7 yards per completion and no matter what, he’s not going to remain on a 6,568-yard, 56-TD pass pace. There’s better value passers with better matchups in Week 3, so do know there’s some Buyer Beware that comes with Mahomes this week.

6) Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. LAR

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: 112 Adjusted Yards per Atttempt+ means he’ll continue to stretch defenses now that Odell Beckham Jr. is in tune.

Bad Number: The Rams are third in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks.

7) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DEN

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Rodgers, who’s averaged 7.8 yards per attempt in his career, is not going to sit on his current average of 6.4 YPA much longer.

Bad Number: The Broncos are eighth in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed just 189.5 passing yards per game.

8) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. CAR

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: Only one interception in a league-high 94 attempts, plus he’s averaging 12.2 yards per completion.

Bad Number: He’s had 11 poor throws and just one completion from them. The Panthers are 0-2, but their defense is still good enough to make Murray look more like a rookie than he has thus far.

9) Lamar Jackson, BAL at KC

DK ($7,000), FD ($8,500)

Good Number: He’s averaging 14.5 yards per completion. That’s not all Hollywood Brown, either.

Bad Number: It’s nitpicking with the start that he’s had, so the 175 air yards counts as a “negative.”

10) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: He’s getting 8.58 net yards per attempt with an under the radar receiving corps.

Bad Number: Wow, that 3.3 depth yards per target is something we’re going to have to discuss, Jimmy…

Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Derek Carr, OAK at MIN

DK ($4,900), FD ($6,700)

The Vikings are 21st in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Weren’t they supposed to be elite? Most will have Carr off their charts, but I’ll play the exception.

2) Matt Ryan, ATL at IND

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,800)

Five interceptions lead the league. Even with the big Week 2 outings from Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Ryan is still averaging a mere 5.6 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.

3) Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,800)

The numbers are putrid in his first two starts, but nothing says “improvement is coming” like facing the Redskins and their 31st ranked defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

4) Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. OAK

DK ($5,100), FD ($7,200)

As ugly a Week 2 that he had, keep in mind Cousins leads the league with a 14.9 yards per completion. Among the DFS Week 3 QB Picks, Cousins is near the top when it comes to “either/or.”

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT at SF

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,800)

If James Connor is limited, Rudolph will be north — well north — of 30 pass attempts. Look for Vance McDonald and James Washington to be the big winners in the new QB regime in Pittsburgh. The Niners are seventh in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers, which is why I’m not as optimistic about Rudolph as I am with any of the other DFS Week 3 QB Picks.

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5 years ago 0 comment

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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Now that we’ve gotten our first taste of the 2019 season, it’s here we begin to make sense of what we saw. The Week 2 DFS QB Picks will focus mostly on the main slate of Sunday games, but the Thursday, Sunday and Monday nighters will get love.

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Tom Brady, NE at MIA

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,800)

Oh, stop. You knew this was coming. Even if Antonio Brown didn’t play, Brady was going to be a lock here. The Dolphins allowed a combined 55.08 Fantasy points to Ravens QBs on Sunday, and Brady’s track record versus Miami is hilariously tilted in his favor.

In his last six matchups against the Dolphins, Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns five times, including five in the two games he faced them in 2018, where he finished with a combined 632 passing yards. Brady has tossed for at least 227 yards in each of his last 10 games against Miami, finishing with at least 274 yards six times. At this point, you don’t need Next Generation stats to be convinced what to do here.

2) Deshaun Watson HOU vs. JAX

DK ($6,600), FD ($8,500)

It’s safe to say the words “Houston Texans” and “effective run game” won’t be said in the same sentence in 2019. That means Watson will make regular appearances in this section, so long as he remains upright. Despite being sacked six times on Monday, Watson still put up 31 Fantasy points, placing him behind only Lamar Jackson (33.6) and Dak Prescott (33.4). The woeful Texans’ O-line assures that Watson will finish with 6-8 rushing TDs this season, again so long as he remains upright.

Jacksonville was 27th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers in Week 1 as Patrick Mahomes tagged them for 378 yards and three touchdowns without Tyreek Hill most of the afternoon. The Jaguars were 26th in receivers points allowed and will see plenty of DeAndre Hopkins, who averages 11.1 targets per game against them. Although Watson has a modest 79.7 passer rating in three previous games against the Jags, Sunday shapes up to be a personal best for Watson against an overrated unit.

3) Patrick Mahomes, KC at OAK

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,000)

He’s playing, so no worries about his sprained ankle. If he can flirt with 400 yards gimping along, it’s all good. Mahomes averaged 283 yards and three touchdowns in his two games against the Raiders last season, and I feel he’ll be just fine without Hill in the lineup.

My only concern with Mahomes is that once Hill exited the game, Sammy Watkins was the only wide receiver he targeted. While that makes Watkins a high-end WR1, a mild sense of uneasiness permeates. However, the bet is that A) the Chiefs will likely sign a veteran receiver this week and 2) whoever is opposite Hill will be grossly underrated. Oakland is a solid 11th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers after Week 1, but Joe Flacco isn’t Patrick Mahomes.

4) Drew Brees, NO at LAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000)

Part of me feels like I have underrated Brees here. His track record against the Rams is 269 yards and two touchdowns per game. In his last four regular season tilts against the Rams, he has averaged 323.7 yards and 2.5 TDs per game.

Brees will do a good job of diversifying the passing game. Of his attempts on Monday night, 22 went to wide receivers, 11 went to running backs and four went to tight ends (quarterback Taysom Hill had two targets). The big play element is already there, as Brees connected on four completions of at least 20 yards. New Orleans had a combined seven big plays and will present a more dangerous offense than the Rams — who allowed just one big play against the Panthers — saw in Week 1.

5) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,700)

Wentz plays on Sunday night, so if you’re playing a full slate, keep in mind that he accounted for 219 air yards against the Redskins, accounting for 69.9% of his 313 passing yards. He was 21st in that category in 2018, but he didn’t have DeSean Jackson then, did he…

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Russell Wilson, SEA at PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

The one number to keep in mind with Wilson is that his receivers averaged 6.9 yards after the catch in Week 1. That’s two yards better than last year’s average. The Steelers allowed Pats wideouts to amass 273 receiving yards on just 14 completions (19.5 yards per catch) on Sunday night. I’d strongly consider Wilson as a Week 2 DFS QB Pick, but he falls just short of Cash Game status.

2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. ARI

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,200)

Let’s not proclaim him the Second Coming just yet, but Jackson sure as hell disproved a lot of his detractors on Sunday. The Cardinals will provide stiffer competition, but Jackson’s 10.3 air yards per pass completion and the zeroes in the categories of bad throws and danger passes are all encouraging signs. Even better is that he didn’t run much, which means that if Jackson is becoming a consistent passer, he will have a couple of games where he’ll combine his running skills into one hell of a Fantasy day.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC at DET

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,700)

The potential long-term impact of Mike Williams’ injury is currently in question and I don’t suspect Austin Ekeler will rack up 39.4 Fantasy points again, but we know Rivers will throw and do so effectively, as he completed 73.5% of his passes in Week 1. Rivers only had 147 air yards on Sunday, a number that translates into trouble for a Lions secondary that allowed 233 receiving yards to the Cardinals.

4) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,000)

Forget all we saw on Thursday night. You’ll be better for it. Rodgers won’t finish 23rd among all quarterbacks again. The Vikings did give up 304 yards to Matt Ryan and will have to contend with a more productive Packers passing game that averaged 10.3 yards per target. That tells me Rodgers will be more aggressive on Sunday and will be somewhat undervalued considering he’s facing a solid Minnesota defense.

5) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. SEA

DK ($7,600), FD ($8,500)

Speaking of rebound candidates, Roethlisberger will be under the radar and does bring a good track record against the Seahawks, averaging 25 completions and 320 yards in three previous matchups. If you’re looking for sunshine in his pitch black outing against the Pats, his receivers did not drop a pass, nor did he record a bad throw. Seattle made Andy Dalton look like a must-start passer in Week 1, and it’s almost a given that Big Ben is a far superior Fantasy performer at home. He’s worth the second look

6) Dak Prescott, DAL at WAS

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Prescott averaged 16.2 yards per completion and had seven completions of better than 20 yards.

Bad Number: Raise your hand if you think Ezekiel Elliott will have 14 touches. I’ll wait.

7) Jared Goff, LAR vs. NO

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: The Saints defense is still the Saints defense, as only the Dolphins and Giants allowed more Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Bad Number: A 59% completion rate and 8.1 yards per completion makes me have Super Bowl flashbacks.

8) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. PHI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Case Keenum produced 380 yards against the Eagles secondary. Imagine what Ryan could do if the Falcons give him time to throw.

Bad Number: Ryan has never had a season in which he averaged less than 10.4 yards per completion, so the 9.2 YPC against the Vikings is a bit of of a concern.

9) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. LAC

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

Good Number: We would all take 14.3 yards per completion, which is what Stafford had against the Cardinals.

Bad Number: Don’t count on the Lions having 77 plays from scrimmage.

10) Derek Carr, OAK vs. KC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,600)

Good Number: Carr averaged big plays at an 18.1% completion rate, a solid number considering he only attempted 26 passes.

Bad Number: Oakland’s receiver depth is concerning. Outside of Tyrell Williams, Carr targeted wideouts just seven times. That’s a number that has to improve, especially if the Chiefs are doubling Williams up.

Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Case Keenum, WAS vs. DAL

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

He’s going to be a strong value play, especially if the Redskins have to play catchup. Keenum did have a nice split in targets with a 23-21 distribution to wide receivers and running backs/tight ends.

2) Andy Dalton, CIN vs. SF

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

San Francisco was the top Fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. The Tyler Boyd-Richard Sherman matchup will be a huge indicator on how well Dalton will look.

3) Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. IND

DK ($5,000), FD ($7,400)

Averaged 12.4 passing yards after completion, but who in 2019 is going to trust a quarterback that completes 50% of his attempts?

4) Cam Newton, CAR vs. TB

DK ($16,500), FD ($15,000)

The better of the two plays if you’re going Showdown on Thursday night. Should find the end zone, but his 5.7 yards per target doesn’t look good, especially when investing in Panthers wide receivers.

5) Baker Mayfield, CLE at NYJ

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,500)

Prove it. He will be an interesting watch among the Week 2 DFS QB Picks.

6) Jacoby Brissett, IND at TEN

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,000)

The accuracy (77.7%) is there, but the 4.2 yards after catch per completion is going to need some work.

7) Gardner Minshew, JAX at HOU

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,400)

On price alone, Minshew should be ranked higher. The Jags get a Texans pass defense that got nothing from J.J. Watt on Monday night en route to finishing 29th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers.

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Russell Wilson Featured Image via Mike Morris

5 years ago 0 comment

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