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Carlos Ortiz

PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Field of 132 golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Webb Simpson (-17)
The courses: TPC Scottsdale
- Par 71 – 7,261 yards
- Altitude means bombers will bomb even harder, but driving accuracy also important
- Fans not as much of a factor, going from 200,000+ to about 5K
- Fast Bermuda greens
6/6 golfers making the cut should be easier this week with the smaller field
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, Par 4s: 450-500, Par 5s Gained, Opportunities Gained, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm might be ready for a breakthrough at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after four straight performances among the top 16 in which he’s placed higher each time (16-11-10 and a T9 last season). His ball striking and short game make him a threat to win every week, but he and the next guy are 2-1 in my model, respectively, so I won’t be fading Rahmbo at TPC Scottsdale.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – JT returns to the business of dominating golf courses with his complete bag of tools – which he’s probably anxious to dust off after a missed cut at Abu Dhabi and an unfortunate and embarrassing foot-in-mouth incident where he uttered a slur after a missed putt. There’s some merit to fading him in GPPs since he’s bound to be highly owned, but I always have a hard time leaving him off my favorite teams. He’s first or second in five of the nine focus stats listed above and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,100) – The defending champion took last week off after playing both tournaments in Hawaii (T17 at Sentry TOC and T4 at the Sony Open), and he’s made 7/7 cuts this year. He’s not a long hitter, so he’ll have to deploy a different strategy than the bombers on the long par 4s and par 5s, but he’s won here before and can do it again.

Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger works best in cash games where you’re fading the $10K and up range and looking for more balance, especially since he’s making cuts with such consistency and flashing top 10 upside. He’s not my favorite to win, but he’s finished in the top 25 in four straight events and in the 25-30 range in the previous two. Berger isn’t a complicated golfer to handicap – he just has a little trouble winning (three career, his last at the 2020 Charles Schwab).

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100) – I was going to start off this tier with Sungjae Im, but I like Scheffler’s upside in large-field GPPs a bit more and would prefer Im in cash games in the $9,000-$9,500 price range. Scheffler didn’t do well in his debut here last season, but if he can get hot with the putter and make the cut, there’s no telling what he can pull off on Sunday. Probably not a staple of my single-entry GPP, but just the kind of guy I want to mix up my small-stakes, multi-entry GPP tickets.

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,000) – There’s no course history to examine here, but it’s not an overly complex setup tee to green – so the talented Zalatoris is definitely in play here, especially in GPPs where folks could shay away from the price tag and the dearth of experience at TPC Scottsdale. There’s really not a venue that can throw off Willie Z, so I’m buying with the inherent risk of his short game lacking the umph to carry him onto the leaderboard.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,500) – Bubba is a course horse (T3 and T4 in last two years here) and a guy who thrives on fast greens. His poor showing at the Masters and missed cut last week at the Farmers doesn’t instill confidence, but he’s No. 17 on my model and is worth a look in GPPs.

Billy Horschel (DK $8,400) – If we throw out Horschel’s MC last week, there’s a lot to like about his recent play. He’s also 5-for-5 here with a Top 10 last season, and while he’s not necessarily popping (No. 49 overall) on my model this week, he’s viable in those balanced cash builds we’ve discussed – and even a few tournaments.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Like Watson, Gary is a golfer who’s best days in the sport may be behind him – but there’s still plenty to like about the course fit and track record: he’s four-for-his-last-five here and won the event in 2018. If he can strike it well and seize on his opportunities this week, he might make for a solid GPP play in “balanced” builds.

Russell Henley (DK $8,200) – Henley seems to alternate missed cuts with Top 20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale, as well as MCs with Top 30s in his recent play. When I take that pattern and add in that he’s on the beat for the better of those two scenarios this year – and this week – the fact that he’s No. 12 in my model (and No.1 in both SG: BS and SG: APP) gets me excited. He’s my favorite play for GPPs in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, and I dare say is viable in both single-entry and cash.

Sam Burns (DK $7,700) – Burns is the sub-$8K player who’s “popping” the most on my models (No. 6 overall) and while he played well last week, the Sunday 75 kept him from a Top 10 finish. He’s 0-for-2 here but If he can turn it around with the putter this week – and he’s normally pretty solid with the flat stick but lost almost 3 shots to the field last week – he could make for a solid under-the-radar play in all formats.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,700) – Kuchar loves the Waste Management Open (4-for-4 with three top 10s and a T16 in his last four tries) and the price is significantly reduced since his game has taken a turn for the worse since COVID-19. Maybe this event will bring up some good memories.

Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Harris English (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Corey Conners, Max Homa, Carlos Ortiz, Talor Gooch (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,500) – Norlander’s play can be wildly inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s playing well right now (T12 at the AMEX and T2 last week at Torrey Pines) and is tops in the field playing Par 4s (450-500). A first-timer in Phoenix, Norlander makes sense as a GPP play – but I’d steer clear in cash.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – He’s No. 35 on my model this week with no glaring deficiencies other than a relatively weak putter. Steele has fared well here before (third place in 2018) but missed the cut in the last two tries. He’s a good bet for a bounceback and could be a viable cash game target at this price.

Charley Hoffman (DK $7,000) – I normally don’t play Hoffman but this might be the week I jump aboard. The model likes him (No. 35 overall) and he’s perfect in his last five tries here with three finishes among the top 26 golfers.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,700) – Varner is always a bit risky but he had Top 10 upside at this venue and is an excellent ball striker who’s popping in my model. Like many good ball strikers who haven’t won, his struggles are usually on the greens, so that’ll be something to watch this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Higgs is the opposite of Varner (not a great ball striker, better on and around the greens), but priced similarly because he’s a damn good putter. If you’re down to under $7K for your last piece, you could pivot between him and HV3.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,600) – I like playing Hubbard in GPPs, and he’s actually 3-for-3 at the Waste Management Open – a promising stat for a guy priced this low. Nothing in his recent play is very promising, but the T9 finish last year points to an affinity for TPC Scottsdale and the low price means he could work for top heavy lineups that need some value plays.

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,600) – McCarthy is tops in the field for SG:P and his flat stick keeps him in the conversation at most venues. This week, the elevation could help with his distance (he does play Par 5s well) and the fact that he’s made the cut in two tries here and should be low owned means he’s worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Byeong Hun An (GPP), John Huh, Luke List (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik Van Rooyen, James Hahn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – Hoge has missed three straight cuts, but he’s improved with each appearance at this tournament, culminating with a T25 last year. There aren’t any sure things at $6,500 and under, but I’ll be overweight on last week’s secret weapon after his disappointing performances at the AMEX and Farmers.

Padraig Harrington (DK $6,200) – Harrington has made the cut in four straight events and is near the minimum price on DK. His game around the greens is still solid, and while he’s a longshot DFS play, he’s easy to root for.

Additional punt options: Brian Stuard, Keith Mitchell (GPP), Hudson Swafford

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA DFS Picks: Farmers Insurance Open

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Farmers Insurance open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Strong, full field of 152 golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Marc Leishman (-15)
The courses: Torrey Pines North (one of first two rounds) & South (three rounds of four)
- Both Par 72 (North: 7,258 South: 7,698 yards)
- Coastal courses so wind/elements are a factor
- South course is tougher, and a long driver helps
- Harder-to-hit greens
- North: Bentgrass greens; South: Poa Annua greens
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Driving Distance, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Driving Distance, Bogey Avoidance, Par 4s: 450-500

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Rahm’s sore back kept him out of the AMEX last week, but that’s about the only thing keeping me from clicking his name as a lock in all my lineups. He’s got a win (2017) along with a couple top five finishes here, has the all-around game to win again, and he’s second on my mixed model behind only Tony Finau. I couldn’t dissuade anyone from even going lock button, 100-percent Rahm, and he’ll be the core of my single-entry lineups.

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,000) – Initial ownership projections have McIlroy coming in under Rahm and Finau, but he’s priced with them and has top five finishes in both his visits. Sia likes him and will talk more about it in his livestream tonight, and McIlroy is tops in three very important focus stat categories: SG:APP, BoB% and Bogey Avoidance. Rory occasionally has decent missed cut equity compared to the rest of the big names, but these courses and the possibility of some difficult conditions should play to his strengths.

Tony Finau (DK $10,700) – Finau is coming off a solo fourth last week (-19, four strokes behind the winner) and his track record here is solid, with five straight top 20s (but only one top five). Because he’s priced up so high and always struggles to actually win golf tournaments, he might be best used in cash. Finau could get really chalky in GPPs, so it might be a good time to fade him over the two guys above.

Xander Schauffele (DK $10,400) – Schauffele’s best pro finish here (his home course in high school, ironically) is a T25 in 2018 (surrounded by a bunch of missed cuts), but there’s nothing in the mixed model to suggest he shouldn’t play well here – aside from a minor dip when it comes to SG:P, where he’s 68th in the field. His excuse is that he’s been “consistently” sick when it’s time to tee it up at Torrey Pines, but with a COVID-19 diagnosis and recovery out of the way, maybe he’s finally ready to play well here.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Harris English (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Wolff is the type of fearless golfing talent who could fare quite well at Torrey Pines with his length, and his T21 in last year’s debut run speaks to his ability to adjust well to a challenge. The biggest concern is how Wolff will rebound if he’s missing the Poa Annua greens (he’s No. 131 in the filed in SG:ARG). He’s definitely got the ball-striking and ability to thrive on this surface – it’s just a matter of avoiding some bad bounces and keeping his head on straight.

Marc Leishman (DK $8.700) – The form is good (T4 at the Sony Open) and he’s the defending champion at Torrey Pines – so he’ll be in plenty of my builds. I’m more than a little concerned about rostering a chalky Marc Leishman, but he’s projected closer to 10 percent, which means I could stomach using him in about 1/5 GPPs and even a low-cost single-entry.

Jason Day (DK $8,600) – Day hasn’t played since a T12 at the RSM Classic in mid-November, but that could be a good thing – as his troublesome back may have benefited from the layoff. If we get word that Day (No. 8 in my mixed model) is looking healthy in the practice rounds, I’ve got no problem using him in GPPs and hoping his ownership stays down.

Ryan Palmer (DK $8,400) – Palmer is 3/3 with a T2 here during the 2017-18 season, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the U.S. Open. The form is decent and he’s No. 7 in my model this week. Best deployed in cash games, he might get chalky in tournaments – so I’ll either be all-in (single entry lock and 50 percent ownership in GPPs) or trying to come in around the field in MMEs.

Adam Scott (DK $8,300) – Scott is another darling of my model this week, and he’s priced very affordably for a man who finished solo second in the 2019 Farmers (Justin Rose was -21, two strokes better than Scott’s -19). The tour veteran can struggle with has flatstick, but a solid ball-striking veteran like Accurate Adam can get hot enough knocking down flagsticks as that it doesn’t matter.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,900) – I was all over him last week, but once an unlucky flagstick strike that caromed back into the water turned a birdie into a quadruple bogey, his confidence was shot. Back on a course where his gargantuan length off the tee could be a huge advantage, I’m jumping back aboard in GPPs – but he’s way too risky for cash.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,600) –Gooch actually finished T3 in the aforementioned 2019 Farmers and he’s popping on my models (No. 11 overall). A T21 last week and a couple Top 5s since October help contribute to my interest in this straight hitter who fares ell in many of the focus stat categories.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Si Woo Kim (cash), Cameron Smith, Billy Horschel (GPP), Cameron Davis, Gary Woodland, Francesco Molinari (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,500) – This would be a form play, as Ortiz has missed two straight cuts here and is only No. 67 on my model. Sia is with me on the inherent risk, but we both like him for his upside.

Charles Howell (DK $7,500) – A cash game staple this week, Howell has a solid Torrey Pines resume and is a fine play in all formats, as hi ownership may stay low coming off a MC at the AMEX.

Max Homa (DK $7,400) – Homa seems to be shaping up since a rough fall schedule, he finished T9 here last season, and he’s No. 38 overall in my model. Too risky for cash but worth a look in GPPs.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,200) – Ghim is a WinDaily favorite and one of the best single-round performers on tour. A T20 here in 2019 and his T5 last week make me interested in large-field GPPs – so hopefully his ownership stays low.

John Huh (DK $7,000) – Consistently good at this venue, Huh has three top 25 finishes over his past three months (including a top 15) and he’s been gaining strokes on the field at an alarming rate (5.7) over his last five tournaments. The price is just too low.

Brandt Snedeker ($7,000) – Stay away in cash and single-entry, but keep an eye on Snedeker for his performance at this venue and ability to putt and scramble himself onto the leaderboard. Sneds has missed three straight cuts but he’s 5-for-5 here since 2016.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,900) – Higgs finished T9 in 2020 at Torrey Pines and his ownership should stay around 5% or lower this week. He’s a longshot to win or even finish in the Top 10 again, but there is some upside here in this price range.

Adam Schenk (DK $6,700) – He’s not the best ball striker in the field and there are plenty of obstacle to him finishing in the Top 15, but he made the cut here in 2019 after a rocky debut the previous year and he crept into the Top 40 of my model. With a 1-2% projected ownership, I’m comfortable using him in one or two of my 20 max entry GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Alex Noren (GPP), Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge (GPP), Luke List, Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Richy Werenski (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,500) – This is not the land of sure things, so do not hit the lock button with NeSmith – who made the cut here last year in his debut and finished T30. For that, he’s a 1/20 option in large field GPPs.

Tyler McCumber (DK $6,400) – McCumber is actually No. 20 in my model, which was a pleasant surprise in looking for low-cost options in this range. He made the cut last week and like NeSmith, played well in his debut at Torrey Pines last year, finishing T21 with Will Gordon.

Will Gordon (DK $6,300) – Well, what do you know? The long-hitting Gordon is $100 cheaper than McCumber but doesn’t get any love from my model this week (No. 105 overall). If I play McCumber in 2/20 GPPs, I’ll use Gordon in one.

Additional punt options: Robbie Shelton, J.J. Spaun, Beau Hossler (GPP)

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Sony Open at Hawaii

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sony Open at Hawaii and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Weaker (just five of the OWGR Top 20) full field of 140+ golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Cameron Smith (-11 in playoff over Brendan Steele)
The course: Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, HI
- Par 70 (7,044 yards)
- Short, traditional course with narrow fairways
- Scoring varies based on weather, but lots of chances to go low
- Slower but tricky Bermuda greens
- Weather factor should be moderate this week (windiest on Thursday)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Eagles Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Fairways Gained, SG: Around the Green

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Webb Simpson (DK $11,100) – Webb is top-dog emcee this week and the only player above $11K on DraftKings, but this course, with its tighter fairways and silly little greens, is certainly a prime spot for him. He narrowly missed out on the aforementioned playoff between Cameron Smith and Brendan Steele and finished solo third, and this year he’s the co-favorite to win at 14-1 and the best cash game option out there.

Harris English (DK $10,800) – English isn’t on my cash game radar this week, but he’s coming off his first win since 2013 (the third of his 10-year career) among a tough field at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week. You can’t argue with the form, and while he hasn’t played well at Waialae before, he’s shown improvement at the venue, ranks second in my overall model, and he makes for an excellent GPP play.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,600) – As a rookie, Morikawa notched a T21 last year among stellar company, and his ball-striking and approach game is tailor-made for this golf course. His putting is probably the biggest concern, though his stats on Bermuda seem to be better than other surfaces. I’ll have shares in the 15-20% range – right around the rest of the DFS tournament field.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,000) – Berger seems to be everybody’s “sneaky” play in the top tier this week, which continues to push his projected ownership well above 20% and into the chalky zone in GPPs. I’m comfortable using him because of his ball-striking prowess and how well he’s played in 2020-21, but he’s far from a lock button to me – Berger has no top 10s in this tournament.

Cameron Smith (DK $9,600) – Usually I don’t write up this many golfers in the top tier, but Smith is the defending champion and really seems to play well here, with three straight top 25s at Waialae (including his win). With so many value options in my player pool under $7,500, there’s a path to rostering Smith in GPPs with one or two other big-name players.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Sungjae Im

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Ryan Palmer (DK $9,200) – There’s plenty to like about Palmer’s chances in 2021 at Waialae, especially with his recent form and last year’s T4 at this event. He makes sense for both cash games and GPPs, and it’ll be great if his ownership stays under 20%.

Russell Henley (DK $8,700) – Henley’s course history is awful here, but he’s fourth overall in my model and is the best in the field in SG:APP – the top focus stat this week. I’m not overly interested in GPPs if he gets above 18% or so, especially since his success usually comes down to his putting performance.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,800) – I’ll be mixing in Kisner at about a 15-20% rate in GPPs and hoping he can get hot with the putter – as he usually fares well on Bermuda. There’s really nothing to dislike about Kisner, who’s a solid value in the mid-tier.

Zach Johnson (DK $8,500) – A short course with small greens? Sign me up for a ZJ. I don’t care what he costs because if I have to ask, I can’t afford him. Seriously – Johnson has a couple of Top 10s here and while he’s not exciting, he had a T6 in November at the RSM. A solid cash game target.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $8,100) – He’s a first timer here, but we’ve seen other Sony Open virgins notch Top 10s because of their ball-striking and approach game – so why not the South African? Van Rooyen is 12th in my model and a solid GPP play who I’ll be overweight on compared to the field.

Brian Harman (DK $7,800) – Harman has some excellent results at this venue, including a T4 during the 2017-18 season, and he’s a solid cutmaker who my model loves this week (No. 10 overall). He’s in my player pool and a good play in all formats.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,600) – I love mixing in Keegan into GPPs on courses that require a solid approach game, and while he’s not the best putter in the world, the quirky veteran has shown steady improvement at the Sony Open and seems to be figuring out the greens a little more each year.

Also consider: Abraham Ancer (GPP), Sergio Garcia, Brendan Todd (GPP), Charles Howell (Cash), Marc Leishman, Talor Gooch

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Tom Hoge (DK $7,300) – I’m not sure when the price on Hoge will come up, but I’m loving the fact that he’s so cheap with his soaring upside on a course like this. He’s only No. 60 in my model, but that’s because of his performance around the greens – which he’s fared well on before (third place finish in 2017 and a T12 last year).

James Hahn (DK $7,300) – If you want a guy with similar upside to Hoge and lower ownership, look no further than Hahn. I may even build a few GPPs starting with both these players.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,200) – Like Zach Johnson, Furyk plays his best on shorter courses with tricky greens, and I’m considering going up to about 40% ownership on this old codger in MMEs. He’s ninth on my model and he won here way back in 1996 – about year before Collin Morikawa was born.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,200) – You may have noticed a theme here, as Stanley is another solid ball striker who putts badly but has played well at Waialae in the past (T10 three years ago and 4/5 since 2015). I’d steer clear in cash games but will mix him into GPPs.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,000) – Norlander is popping on my model (eighth overall) and his T9 here last season proves there’s a good reason to include him in your builds. The price is simply way too low this week.

Doug Ghim (DK $6,900) – I know that Ghim has some issues putting together four good rounds, and his debut here in 2020 was less than spectacular (MC), but if he can best his demons on the short grass, he’ll be a solid value under $7K.

More value golfers to consider: Carlos Ortiz, Matthew NeSmith (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Mark Hubbard, Vaughn Taylor

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – Course history and metrics make Armour the best punt play at or under the arbitrary $6,500 price point. He’s missed three straight cuts but a T8 at the Bermuda Championship in October mean I’ll have a few shares in large-field GPPs.

Jerry Kelly (DK $6,200) – He’s old and straight off the tee, and he’s notched two Top 15s here in his last five tries (two MCs). I’m comfortable using him at up to 10% in large-field GPP entries where I’m squeezing in stars and scrubs.

Additional punt options: Roger Sloan, Sung Kang, Ted Potter, Chase Seifert

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Mayakoba Golf Classic

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Weaker field of 132 golfers, but JT and Koepka are here!
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties
Last year: 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
The course: El Camaleon Golf Club (Playa del Carmen, Mexico)
- Par 71 (approx. 7,100 yards)
- Resort course with combined landscapes: Mangrove jungles, limestone canals and oceanfront
- Seashore Paspalum greens and fairways
- Plenty of scoring chances for good approaches
- Shorter, more accurate hitters could have success
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting, Fairways Gained, GIR

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,400) – He’s going to be hard to fade in GPPs, but that may be the way to get some leverage. In lineups where I fade him, I’ll grab some shares of Brooks Koepka.

Harris English (DK $10,100) – English is viable in all formats and I’ll run a few lineups with just him among the top tier and go balanced the rest of the way with in the $7-9K range. If I don’t do that with him, I’ll try the same with Hovland or Fowler.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,900) – The price is obscene, especially for a guy that doesn’t post a lot of Top 5 finishes, but he’s one of the best players in the field and he’s had a pretty good year. The Mexico native has also made three straight cuts here with two Top 10s.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,500) – He’s rocking three Top 15s among his last four tournaments, and the price is reasonable for the field. He’s got a chance at winning here after missed cuts in his first two tries at the Mayakoba.

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Rickie Fowler (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,200) – Zalatoris didn’t tee it up in November, but he had three top 10s in his first four starts this season and an amazing 13 top 20 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour in the calendar year. The 35-1 odds to win aren’t bad for an outright bet, either.

Corey Conners (DK $9,000) – The Canadian is threatening to join the Top 50 in the world, and despite some spotty finishes here, he’s a horse for this course – as everything should line up for him to break through. If you’re looking for a 25-1 guy to back, Conners might be your guy.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $8,900) – Ortiz will be super popular this week, because he’s playing in his native Mexico (like Ancer), he just won in Houston despite a relatively inconsistent 2020, and he finished second here last year. He’s not my favorite play in GPPs if his ownership gets over 15%, but I’ll have some shares.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Grillo’s ball striking T2G is excellent, and he’s a much better putter these days as well – a combo that makes me want to jump aboard again at this all-too-fair price in the mid-range. Add in that he’s 4-for-4 with three top 15s – and a ridiculous scoring average of 68.13 at Mayakoba – and he’s one of my favorite plays (and bets at 60-1) to win.

Charles Howell (DK $8,100) – Howell’s days of routine Top 10 finishes may be over, but he’s had success at the Mayakoba and his T3 at the 3M shows he can still get it done T2G. Not my favorite play, but steady enough to warrant usage in a few GPPs.

Joel Dahmen (DK $8,000) – Dahmen seems to thrive on resort courses and posted a 61 in day two the RSM Classic (on the Seaside course), so he’s very capable of firing some low rounds. If he can keep it on the fairway, he can dial in a Top 15 finish.

Patton Kizzire (DK $8,000) – Kizzire has been building on some serious momentum, and when he’s hitting fairways, he’s a dangerous golfer. He’s won here, he’s trending in the right direction and I love him at this relatively benign price point. Some experts actually like him to win this week, so he’ll be in most of my GPP builds, including single-entry.

Adam Long (DK $7,800) – Perhaps incongruously with his last name, Long isn’t a bomber, but he’s a prototypical second shot golfer with plenty of firepower in his iron play and a putter that can get things done. The T11 in Houston could give him some confidence heading into the last PGA calendar event of 2020.

Also consider: Sebastian Munoz, Brendan Todd, Alex Noren, Harold Varner (GPP), Scott Piercy, Russell Knox, Chez Reavie (GPP), Rory Sabbatini (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

John Huh (DK $7,400) – Huh won here in 2012 and has made the cut in all three of his events since returning from the COVID-19 layoff. The second-shot golfer finished T12 at the RSM after a sizzling weekend that saw him post 66-65, and his good memories at Mayakoba should make him a solid play this week.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,400) – A 24-year-old birdie maker who may not have the chops to win just yet, Ghim is certainly ready to start cracking some Top 10s and capitalizing on the low individual rounds that have helped him to two Top 15s in his last four starts.

Peter Malnati (DK $7,300) – He’s a GPP-only player because he hasn’t played well at this venue recently, but he’s got Top 25 upside and the game to succeed if he can keep making those birdies.

Pat Perez (DK $7,300) – The course history (three tops tens – including a win in 2016 – in his last four years here) is hard to ignore, but so is the form, which hasn’t been great. I like Perez this week for GPPs, though he’s ultimately a somewhat risky play for cash, even at a discount.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,100) – I’m going back to the well (which ran dry for me at both the Masters and RSM) and hoping Hadwin can finally spike a top finish at a second-shot course that he likes (two T10 finishes in his last two tries).

More value golfers to consider: Chris Kirk, Kevin Streelman (GPP), Denny McCarthy, Kyle Stanley, Vaughn Taylor, Brice Garnett, Max Homa (GPP), Xinjun Zhang (GPP), Robby Shelton (GPP), Ryan Armour

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – I’m drawn to Burgoon because he finished T2 at the RSM and he’s made the cut in two of his three starts here at El Camaleon. He’s a GPP-only play but form and venue mean I’ll have some shares if I need a cheap golfer to fill out a tourney lineup.

Camron Percy (DK $6,400) – Percy digs tropical resort venues and he’s a solid performer on approach shots, so this price probably reflects his recent MC at the RSM, not necessarily his projected finish here. Take advantage, because there’s not a lot to look at under $6,500 this week.

Additional punts: Sung Kang, Rob Oppenheim, Kelly Kraft, Aaron Baddeley

3 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: Sanderson Farms Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sanderson Farms Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Relatively weak but much improved (from last week) field of 144 Golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties
Defending Champ: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
The course: Country Club of Jackson (Jackson, MS)
- Par 72: 7,287 yards
- BermudaPoa (Bluegrass)
- Bomb and gouge is in play… but avoid the water!
- Blend of long approaches and short
The last six winners have all been first time winners on the PGA TOUR, but it used to be an alternate site – which means there will be a few more grizzled vets in the mix this week
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better%, Par 4s (400-450) SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Proximity (175-200)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $11,400) – Scheffler is probably the most talented golfer in the field, and he’s also the most expensive. The PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year withdraw from the U.S. Open after testing positive for COVID-19 but closed out the season with three top fives (among six straight top 25 finishes) and is gearing up to become the seventh consecutive first-time winner of the tournament. He’s second in my overall model after Doc Redman.

Will Zalatoris (DK $10,000) – Zalatoris, who finished in the top 20 in 13 consecutive starts, including two straight top-10s on the PGA TOUR, arrives at this week’s Sanderson Farms Championship as one of the hottest players in the world. He’s made the shift from leading the Korn Ferry Tour’s Regular Season Points list to PGA Tour events rather nicely, finishing eighth in last week’s event after an impressive T6 performance at the U.S. Open. Third in my model this week.

Sam Burns (DK $9,800) – A few weeks ago, Burns had a solid reputation as a longer hitter and birdie-making GPP play, but he’s vastly improved his T2G play and he’s 3-for-3 at CC of Jackson with a T3 in 2018 – the makings of a chalky, cash game option. He’s also in my Top 10, so I’ll have shares of him in all formats.

Doc Redman (DK $9,700) – We’ve seen Doc trending in the right direction with his overall game and ball-striking, attributes that will play well in Jackson. Redman also ranked 45th in birdie average on the PGA Tour in 2020 (fourth so far after just the Safeway Open in the 2021 season), and he’s my pick to break through and win this week.

Zach Johnson (DK $9,600) – One of the aforementioned “grizzled vets,” ZJ arrives in Mississippi sporting good form — and he finished T14 at this event last season. He’s nearly a lock for a made cut and has the short game to scoot up the leaderboard during the weekend.

Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Byeong-Hun An. Adam Long

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Corey Conners (DK $9,200) – He should be a staple of cash game lineups and he stands to make a much larger impact — and could be a nifty GPP play — if his ownership stays down and he can get the flat stick going this week. Last year he missed the cut at this event, but the Canadian sensation finished second here in 2018.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $8,300) – With two straight top five finishes at the Sanderson Farms, he’ll be popular this week, but it’s obvious he likes this venue and this layout, so I’ll be on board in a few lineups.

Cam Davis (DK $8,100) – Davis might be a better cash play than GPP because he’s been treading water in the T15-T40 range, but that’s not a bad guy to use last in that range because he fares well in the mixed models.

Chesson Hadley (DK $7,800) – We’re no longer getting the standard Chesson Hadley discount on FanDuel, as his salary there ($9,500) is now the 22nd highest in the field, but he’s under $8K on DK, where he’s a boom-or-bust GPP play.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,700) – Straka is turning into a much better ball striker, and while he’s known for his dynamic play, we’re seeing fewer bogeys and even more birdies these days from the

Tom Lewis (DK $7,700) – He’s not really great at anything, but he’s not particularly bad at anything either, so I’ll consider him for GPPs based on his form, aggressive style of play, and ability to make bunches of birdies.

Also consider: Brian Harman (cash), Dylan Frittelli (GPP), Chez Reavie, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim, Xinjun Zhang, Lucas Glover, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Denny McCarthy (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Talor Gooch (DK $7,400) – Along with the next guy, he’s my favorite GPP play under $7,500, and he’s fourth in my models – not for one particular area but his overall game. Gooch isn’t the flashiest play, but he’s got what it takes to become the seventh consecutive debut winner at this event.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – Another solid player who arrives with little fanfare, I’ll have shares of Tringale in GPPs of all sorts (including single-entry), and I believe in his ability to notch a win here given his weekend play at the 3M (63-66), when he finished third.

Cameron Percy (DK $7,200) – In 2020, Percy finished 22nd on Tour in SG: APP, has a pair of top-20 finishes in his last four starts at this event (among four Top 45s) and owns top-25s in his last three starts where he played all four rounds. He’s also lurking in the Top 20 in my model among some accomplished golfers.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,100) – We’re talking GPP only, guys. He’s missed three straight cuts and is a notorious terrible ball striker who gets by with otherworldly putting and veteran panache. Don’t get crazy.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,900) – He could benefit from the bomb-and-gouge approach this week and tend to flourish on Bermuda greens. He’s the definition of a large-field GPP play, because he carries plenty of MC risk (he’s missed five of his last nine cuts).

Davis Riley (DK $6,800) – The two-time 2020 Korn Ferry Tour winner was popping in my models before I found out that he’s from Mississippi, and that he’s only made a few appearances on the PGA Tour – one of which was at last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship (T39). He’s strolling down narrative street this week with a dangerous putter in his hands.

Adam Schenk (DK $6,700) – If you need a cash game play under $7K, I’d say that Schenk – despite the images of inconsistency conjured his name – might just be your man. He’s made eight consecutive cuts, which is actually the longest streak among the not-so-terrible field.

Scott Stallings (DK $6,600) – It’s been a long time since he’s won on tour (2014), and his tee game leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s in the Top 40 on my models and he could squeeze his way into one or two large-field GPP lineups this week.

More value golfers to consider: Nick Taylor (GPP), Hudson Swafford, Richy Werenski, Kristoffer Ventura, Will Gordon (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Mark Hubbard

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Chase Seifert (DK $6,400) – Seifert’s name came up last week in my Corales prep, and he finished T41 (right with the next guy) after a lackluster 72 on Sunday. With no major flaws in his game, if he can make the cut and close with as decent score, he could be a useful cash game cog at this bargain price.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,300) – The price is a joke given this guy’s upside (three Top 15s in 2020), and he’s sandwiched at 21 between Si Woo Kim and ZJ in my model. He’s definitely worth a look in GPPs.

Additional punts: Vaughn Taylor, Nick Watney (GPP), Martin Laird (GPP)

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Championship helping you find some winning teams in GPPs! All pricing is for DraftKings.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes...

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: The Arnold Palmer Invitational

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Invite-only, stacked tournament field of 121 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
The course: Bay Hill
7,454 yards, Par 72 – Dick Wilson design w/Arnold Palmer redesign
TifEagle Bermuda greens (fast) and Celebration Bermuda fairways
Plenty of water (in play on half the holes)
Much easier than PGA National (Three of last five winners at -17 or better)
Defending champ: Francesco Molinari (2019)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; Par 4 efficiency (450-500), Par 5 Efficiency (550-600); Proximity (200+; Opportunities Gained; Birdie or Better%; Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,800, FD $12,200) – Rory is the tourneyfavorite and a former API champion who’s been playing some of the best golf ofhis career with six straight Top 5 finishes. The world No. 1 is also 5-for-5 atBay Hill with a sub-70 scoring average in 20 rounds. He’ll obviously bepopular, but I can’t support a fade.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,600,FD $11,600) – Matsuyama has excellent tee-to-green numbers andranks highly in my model despite a lackluster course history that’s missing aTop 5. He’s been playing solid golf lately (five Top 10s in his last 10 starts)and this could be the year he finally breaks through.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,400, FD $11,700) – The bulkier Bryson will be a popular pick this week, but he’s got the game to dominate here and hasn’t missed a cut in three tries – his best finish a solo second coming in 2018. The longer holes are less of a problem now that he’s acquired some extra distance, and he’s notched top 15 finishes in six of his last eight tournaments.

Brooks Koepka (DK $9,200, FD $11,400) – He’s likely to be low-owned (terrible course history, MC at the Honda Classic) but is emerging in my mixed model (No. 3 overall after Rory and Hideki) as a golfer to target despite his struggles. Koepka loves playing against the best in the world, and actually struck the ball okay last week but fell victim (like so many others) to a fickle golf course that rattled more than a few cages. The greens here this week will more resemble what golfers face at Augusta and at U.S. Open venues, so I’m buying.

Patrick Reed (DK $9,400, FD $11,100) – Reed may struggle with 200+ approaches and long par 3s, but those are the only focus stat categories that give me pause. The rest of his game is a solid fit and he’s notched a Top 10 here (2018) in two appearances (T50 last season). Reed may be a golf villain, but he’s a PGA DFS darling.

Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler

Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka should be solid PGA DFS pick this week based on the player efficiencies that come into play at Bay Hill.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Tony Finau (DK $8,900, FD $10,700) – He’s still looking for a victory on a full-field PGA event (we won the Puerto Rico Open in 2016 in a playoff and is 0-2 since (losing in stunning fashion to Webb Simpson a month ago in Phoenix). But Finau excels on long Par 4s and 5s, has solid SG: APP and 200+ approach numbers, and could see lower ownership this week since he skipped the Honda Classic.

Henrik Stenson (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) – We can’t really call Stenson a sleeper pick, but he’s been largely off the radar since winning the Hero World Challenge in December. A superb ball-striker who checks a lot of the boxes we’re looking for at Bay Hill, he’s had a couple Top 5 finishes here.

Byeong Hun An (DK $8,700, FD $10,300) – Once again, we’re relying on An’s elite ball-striking, and we can take something from his continued improvement at this event. We know that putting well and making the cut are the biggest challenges for him, but he’s good enough tee-to-green to avoid some of the landmines (long rough, water) and get himself into position for the weekend.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,500, FD $10,200) – I love this guy. He finished second here last year after missing the cut in 2018 and a couple of decent finishes (T27 in 2016, T13 in 2017) the previous two seasons. The models don’t show as much love for Fitzpatrick, but course history and cut-making are drawing me in once again in GPPs.

Tyrell Hatton (DK $8,100, FD $9,900) – Hatton is quite affordable this week and if he can keep his head on straight, he could relive some of the glory from his Top 5 finish in 2017. He doesn’t excel in one area but overall is the 20th ranked golfer on my models. I like the price, the form, and the upside.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) – Hovland made the cut here last season in his debut (T40) and now has a PGA Tour victory under his belt. He’s also the fourth-ranked golfer in my mixed model and puts himself in a great position to score well. Throw out last week’s MC on a brutal golf course and you get a fine bargain for just $8K on DraftKings.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,700, FD $9,400) – Scheffler is making his debut at Bay Hill but his game suits this course very well, sporting Top 20 marks in Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better, Par 4s (450-500), Par 5s (550-600) and even long Par 3s (200-225). I’ll have shares in all formats, and I’m considering putting him in my single-entry lineup core.

Also consider: Marc Leishman, Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Max Homa, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Ian Poulter

Just because they are not in the Top 25 on my mixed model, does not mean they won’t fare well in the API. This 26-50 range has plenty of golfers to target.

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,500, FD $9,400) – We’re getting a sizeable discount on Niemann and he’s one of many attractive golfers in the $6,500 to $7,500 range this week. He’s has a couple of MCs in his last two starts but he ranks highly in my mixed model (No. 11 overall with an emphasis on SG: APP) and this venue suits him well.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,400, FD $9,100) – Moore had a Top 5 here in 2018 and is worth a look in large-field GPPs for his Strokes Gained numbers.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) – McNealy turned a few heads last week and has some impressive finishes among his last four tourneys (T11, T27, T5, T5). He’s solid around the greens and has greatly improved his ball-striking in 2020.

Harold Varner (DK $7,100, FD $8,300) – A GPP-only play who excels on 200+ yard approaches (No. 1 in the field), Varner has made his last two cuts and should come in well under 10% ownership.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,100, FD $8,700) – Ortiz is 2-for-2 at Bay Hill and we could see a breakthrough week for the Mexican native who fares well on long Par 4s. Work him in a few of your builds.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100, FD $8,000) – Grillo has many flaws, but his SG: APP numbers are good and he’s sixth on the field for Opportunities Gained. He’s hard to trust but is 3-for-3 here (including a T7 in 2017) despite missing the event in 2019.

Tom Hoge (DK $7,000, FD $8,000) – Hoge is cheap, he’s ranked just outside the Top 25 in my mixed model, and he’d made five straight cuts before his MC at the Honda last week.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,900, FD $8,600) – Munoz is making his API debut but is popping on my mixed model as the No. 6 golfer overall. If you believe in data, he should make the cut and emerge as a viable Top 25 candidate with Top 10 upside. He’s a risk-reward GPP play I’ll have big shares of this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700, FD $7,900) – Another talented young player who can get hot and spike a Top 20 finish despite the cheap price tag, Higgs can help you fit in some elite golfers like Rory and DeChambeau without the risk of the other sub-$7K longshots.

More value golfers for GPPs: Lucas Glover, Scott Piercy, Charles Howell, Corey Conners, Rory Sabbatini, Adam Long, Lanto Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Matt Wallace, Doc Redman

Once we get outside the Top 50, were looking at GPP-only plays with some flaws in their game.

4 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: WGC-Mexico Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the WGC-Mexico Championship, and helping you find some winning teams!

The PGA DFS picks this week focus on the more expensive golfers, and many of my value picks are European tour regulars who may prefer this layout and its surfaces to the Americans.

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Course Notes:

Stacked tournament field of 70 golfers
No cut event
The course: Club de Golf Chapultepec (in Naucalpan, just outside Mexico City)
7,330 yards, Par 71, but elevation (7,600 feet) makes it much shorter
Poa annua greens, more Kikuyu
Parkland style: Tree-lined fairways favored by European golfers
Defending champ: Dustin Johnson (won in 2017 & 2019)
Course comp: Crans-sur-Sierre Golf-Club in Switzerland (Omega Masters)
Focus Stat Categories include Strokes Gained: Approach; Opportunities Gained; Bogey Avoidance; Birdie or Better %; Proximity from 125-150, Par 4s: Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500, FD $12,200) – He’s almost guaranteed a Top 10 finish this week, all things considered. He’ll have a huge advantage off the tee and putting is less important on these surfaces. Rory is my pick to win this week and I’ll be around 40-50% again in GPPs.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – If Rory is my 1A favorite, DJ is my 1B. Anything shy of a Top 3 finish will likely hurt us if Rory ends up winning (because of the much tougher pricing this week). Johnson is guaranteed four rounds here barring some type of injury, and his talent and ball-striking should shine through.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,600, FD $11,800) – “Rahmbo” finished third here in 2017 and could see lower ownership than the other high-priced studs. T17 last week and no TV coverage of his Sunday round could affect recency bias and make him a great GPP choice.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,400, FD $11,100) – He finished T23 after carding a 69 on Sunday in the Genesis, but really struggled with his putter – a common theme. If we toss that out and get a little better flat stick performance from him, he’s a great bet for the Top 5.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,000, FD $10,800) – He’s a GPP-only and he didn’t fare too well here last season. If he’s made the necessary math adjustments and can putt a little better this week, we could see the beefier Bryson fare quite well.

Also consider: JustinThomas, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,900, FD $10,400) – No more discounts this week for guys like Louis – who would have come in well under $8K. He’s a perfect GPP play who’s improved each time he’s played here.

Paul Casey, (DK $8,700, FD $10,700) – I like him for one of the same reasons as Oosthuizen (continued improvement in course history), and he’s putted well here in the past. He’s a ball-striking madman and could get popular.

Sergio Garcia (DK $8,600, FD $10,300) – Three straight Top 15s here with Top 10s in his past two. If his putter gets hot, we could see a breakthrough weekend and a pretty good return on our investment.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300, FD $10,100) – The biggest question mark with Gary is SG: Approach, which is, unfortunately, an important focus stat this week. He’s a GPP play for me on lineups where I’m looking for balance and a slew of Top 15 guys with upside.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK ($8,000, FD $9,600) – The price increase wasn’t too bad (+ $300 on DK), and I doubt we’ll see ownership eclipse 10% this week. I’m still waiting for his breakout performance of 2020, and this could be the week.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello (DK $7,600, FD $9,200) – RCB suits our profile here and finished third in 2018 when he posted four rounds in the 60s (good for a DK bonus). His form is solid enough (T17 last week at Riviera) and another Euro golfer we have to consider.

Also consider: Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Abraham Ancer, Victor Perez

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Bernd Wiesberger (DK $7,400, FD $8,400) – Coming off two MCs at the European Tour’s desert venues, Wiesberger will see much lower ownership than the 23rd ranked player in the world (who’s won three times in the last year) on a course that fits him like a golf glove. And his pricing on both sits is very affordable.

Tyrell Hatton (DK ($7,400, FD $9,100) – Hatton has played well here but it’s his first start of 2020 following wrist surgery. Let’s hope for a limited number of rough lies than a be complicated by the spongy and thick Kikuyu.

Kurt Kitayama (DK ($7,200, FD $8,800) – Kitayama finished T18 at Pebble Beach after a T6 finish in the desert in Dubai. He’s a world traveler with plenty of experience on different surfaces, so I think his frustration level could be lower than others in the field.

Kevin Kisner (DK ($7,200, FD $9,400) – He could easily become frustrated with the putting surfaces, as he much prefers Bermuda – but Kisner is a gamer with three straight Top 30s at this event (his best finish here was 11th in 2017).

Charles Howell III (DK ($7,100, FD $9,500) – Finished 14th here in his tournament debut last season and has the length and ball-striking prowess to post another solid Top 20, but I’m not going overboard like folks did last week when he disappointed and finished T59.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,100, FD $9,000) – It’s hard to say how he’ll adjust to the elevation and perform in his debut, but he’s a good fit, and he’s talented enough to shine in his WGC debut.

Lee Westwood (DK $6,900, FD $8,300) – He’s really turned his career around and has played here a couple of times (28th in 2017, 33rd in 2019). Won in January at the Abu Dhabi HSBC over Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and Victor Perez – three other golfers I’ll have shares of this week.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,700, FD $8,100) – He’s got a shot at a Top 20 finish, and for this price, I’ll have some exposure in GPPs. It was encouraging to see him make the cut and finish among the Top 40 last week in his Genesis debut.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $6,600, FD $8,200) – I don’t have much interest in the golfers under $7K this week, but I’ll have some exposure to EVR again after he missed the cut last week.

More value golfers forGPPs: Matt Wallace, Danny Willett, Christian Bezuidenhout,Carlos Ortiz, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, Jorge Campillo

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Mayakoba Golf Classic

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re finding you some prime selections for the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico, especially when it comes to winning GPPs!

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PGADFS Course Notes:

Course: El Camaleón Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, Mexico (Par: 71 – Yardage: 6,987 – Grass: Seashore Paspalum)
Greg Norman designed this fascinating semi-coastal layout, which features three different ecosystems, including some thicket and jungle in the upper areas, and more swampy wetlands with minimal undulation on the Mexican-Caribbean coastline
Cut: The field is at 132 golfers this week with the top 65 and ties playing the weekend.
The winning score is typically in the minus-17-to-22 range
Previous winners: Matt Kuchar, Pat Perez, Graeme McDowell, John Huh, Mark Wilson, Brian Gay, and Fred Funk.
Higher winds could always complicate play and prep, but the course plays to a field average of roughly 70.2 (-0.8 RTP) on the par-71 layout.
Focus Stat Categories are Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Matt Kuchar (DK $11,400, FD $11,800) – I doubt El Tucan will be on his bag this year, but Kuchar seems to be ready to defend his title and take his lumps on social media because of last year’s controversy. It’s his season debut, but he’s one of the favorites and will make plenty of my builds.

Tony Finau (DK $10,600, FD $11,500) – Finau is an excellent driver of the golf ball, even with that abbreviated backswing, but sometimes struggles with accuracy – so this is a GPP pick only. If he can keep it in play and make some putts, there’s no reason he can’t win.

Charles Howell, III (DK $9,600, FD $11,000) – Along and accurate hitter, Howell checks all the boxes for this course and iscoming here in decent form. He’s 8-for-10 making the cut at Mayakoba with threetop-10s and another four top-20s and is an impressive 5-for-5 this season withtwo top-10s and another top-20. Fine for both cash and GPP despite the MC lasttime around here.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,200, FD $10,900) – Ancer is Mexico’s top golf talent, and he would love for this to be his first career win. The driving accuracy is there, and his form is solid, as he placed T4 in his WGC-HSBC Champions debut.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100, FD $10,700) – Scheffler is a top talent who led after an opening 62 before finishing T3 in Bermuda. He’s an excellent ball-striker who hits solid approaches, but I won’t be 100 percent as he’s making his El Camaleón debut.

LantoGriffin (DK $9,000, FD $10,300)– He’s thecurrent FedEx Cup points leader, and he’s finished no worse than a pair of T18sthis season. I worry a bit about his accuracy off the tee and the better fieldshe’ll be encountering, but he’s a GPP play you shouldn’t fade completely.

Also consider: Victor Hovland, Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, AaronWise, Russell Knox

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500to $8,900):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,900, FD$10,500) – Myfriends get on my case for playing him too much in the majors, but he’s a popularDFS target for his elite ball-striking. He’s got some good course history withfinishes of T10, T9, and solo 15th in three tries at El Camaleón. Moreof a GPP play, though he could get chalky on DK.

Chez Reavie (DK $8,500, FD $10,000) – The form hasn’t been great, but he’s 4-for-4 here with a 4th and a 14th, so I’m buying his skillset of accuracy and precision over power and loading up in GPPs. Plus, he’s a personal favorite and a cool who likes to tell gambling stories about Phil.

Pat Perez (DK $8,100, FD $9,600)– Helikes the course, as one of his three career wins came here when he triumphed in2016 by two strokes over Gary Woodland at 21-under, featuring a third-round 62.Mix in three other top 20s at El Camaleón (in seven total starts). A recent solo thirdat the Shriners and an affinity for Paspalum (he won at TPC Kuala Lumpur whenit was Paspalum), and you’ve got yourself an option.

Brian Gay (DK $7,900, FD $9,400) – He was excellent in Bermuda with a T3 – his third top 25 of the new season – and this is where he had his first win in 2008. Overall, he’s 9-for-9 here with four top-25s, and I just can’t fade the guy despite him being a chalky pick.

Brice Garnett (DK $7,600, FD$9,300) – The veteran ballstriker has a great record here (he’s 4-for-4 since 2014 with three top 10s, aT25 and a scoring average of 67.81) and he’s won on Paspalum at the CoralesPuntacana Resort & Club Championship in 2018. I like the discount on DK andwill be using him in a handful of builds.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,500, FD $9,000) – The exciting young rookie got close at Bermuda, sharing the 36-hole lead and sitting by himself at the top of the 54-hole before finishing solo second, possibly because of too much napping. There’s a lot of reasons to roster him this week, his affinity for coastal tracks coming in along with solid form and upside.

Also consider: Scott Piercy, Harold Varner III,Harris English, Keegan Bradley, Carlos Ortiz

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Ryan Armour (DK $7,200, FD $8,800) – A short hitter but one of the most accurate off the tee on tour, Armour hits fairways and finished solo 4th as a rookie here in 2007. Since then, he’s played well here, with a T21 last year, and he arrives in good form with a T23 in Houston and a T8 in Bermuda. The price is fair and Armour is a great course fit for cash or GPP.

J.J. Spaun (DK $6,700, FD $8,300) – Despite his solid course history, I don’t know if Spaun will be super popular this week because he usually isn’t very highly owned. In his first appearance as a rookie in 2016, he finished T28, and he’s added a T14 and a T3 since them posting a scoring average over his 12 rounds of 67.75. His form is poor, but this course can be an elixir for the wayward.

Calum Hill (DK $6,600, FD $8,100) – There’s plenty tolike about this young Scottish lad, who finished 2nd in the Road to Mallorcastandings that rank Euro Tour hopefuls. The 25-year-old’s game worked out well onthe Euro Tour with three top 30s in each of his last three starts. The pricemakes him a solid value option in a week without too many of them.

Si Woo Kim (DK $7,400, FD $9,200) – Kim is 3-for-3 here with a T17 in 2015, a third place in 2017, and T26 (with Chez Reavie) last season. He hasn’t flashed much brilliance this season, but I like this layout as a springboard to some better form.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,200, FD $8,500) – Todd won at Bermuda and has an excellent record here. He’ll be chalky value pick because of his recent win, but I’ll have some shares given his penchant for low rounds. Let’s just hope he makes the cut!

Sepp Straka (DK $6,800, FD $8,000) – I’ve fared well using Straka in DFS and his price remains relatively low. He’s making his debut at his event, but that hasn’t stopped folks before. Straka is accurate off the tee and has strong SG: T2G numbers, so I’ll give him a look at this price point.

More value golfers for GPPs: Patton Kizzire, Brian Stuard,Martin Laird, Xinjun Zhang, Scott Brown, C.T. Pan

The PGA DFS Fades:

Danny Lee (DK $8,300, FD $9,800) – Lee could popular this week since he finished second here last year and nabbed a second-place finish at the CJ CUP, so I’m not going to castigate DFS fans who check out game logs and course history – heck, I do it myself. I may have one or two shares of the Korean-born New Zealander in GPPs, but I’ll definitely be underweight on the field; Lee is an inconsistent [player who misses a lot of cuts and missed cut equity says that if he’s chalky, it might help to fade him.

Cameron Champ (DK $8,700, FD $10,000) – An incredibly long hitter but one who’s not particularly accurate off the tee, his game isn’t suited well for the layout, and the price is still too high for me to use. Sorry, Champ.

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

Billy Horschel (DK $10,200, FD$11,300) – “He performs better as asleeper than a top play, and when you really need him to play well,he lets you down.” – Mark “Spades”Spada

Spades is really mellowing out with his rhetoric! I expected a lot of nasty remarks, but I agree with what he’s saying. Add in the fact that Billy Ho is the fifth most expensive player in the field on both sites and listed as No. 1 on the PGA Tour’s power rankings this week, and we have a fade I can get behind! I’ve had Horschel burn me multiple times when he’s getting lots of chalky action, and when I have no shares, he seems to explode. I’ll commit to exactly ONE lineup with Horschel to stay underweight and that’ll be it.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

Abraham Ancer ($9,200)

Scottie Scheffler($9,100)

Emiliano Grillo($8,900)

Chez Reavie($8,500)

Si Woo Kim($7,400)

Sepp Straka($6,800)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2:

Jason Day ($11,000)

Lanto Griffin($9,000)

Brian Gay($7,900)

Harry Higgs($7,500)

Brendan Todd($7,200)

Ryan Armour($7,200)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3:

Charles HowellIII ($9,600)

Aaron Wise ($9,400)

Emiliano Grillo($8,900)

Harold VarnerIII ($7,900)

Xinjun Zhang($7,300)

Calum Hill($6,600)

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4 years ago 0 comment

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Carlos Ortiz

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

PGADFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

The PGA DFS Fades:

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2:

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3:

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