The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in one of the final Week 13 NFL DFS contests!
Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Josh Allen (DK $17,400, FD $16,500)
Pivot: Stefon Diggs (DK $16,200, FD $14,500)
Contrarian #1: Raheem Mostert (DK $14,400, FD $14,000)
Contrarian #2: Deebo Samuel (DK $13,200, FD $12,000)
DK Punt: Ross Dwelley ($1,200)
The Bills are slight favorites in this game, and Josh Allen sticks out as the player from both teams sporting the highest fantasy upside – though the recently effective running of both Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss may eat into Allen’s rushing TD total the rest of the way.
The main concern is that the 49ers neutralize Allen much in the same way the Broncos did Patrick Mahomes last night, and for that reason there’s no need to exclusively focus on the Bills QB. But there’s reason no obvious pivot on the 49ers – as the Bills defense has LB Matt Milano back and has shored up their injury issues in the secondary. I’d probably be willing to attack the Niners less-than-stellar secondary with Stefon Diggs and sprinkle in a couple of 49ers players, but salary is going to be problems if you play the CPT spot straight this week. I personally love rookie WR Gabriel Davis, though I may have more shares of Cole Beasley this week. I could see him confounding the Niners out of the slot.
The multi-headed 49ers running attack has a clear lead dog in Raheem Mostert – one of the toughest and most physical runners in the NFL. He returned to his normal role in a game against the Rams last week, and we’ll haver to pay attention to the gameday inactives to see if the 49ers sit any of Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson – all of whom could have a significant role in cracking this showdown based on the their low salaries and upside should an injury or game script (the 49ers having to play from behind) come into play.
Both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are elite options for the 49ers, and I might be limiting my 49ers ownership to one or both of them in some builds – but I do have some abiding interest in Ross Dwelley, who has 8-12 point upside even if he gets a handful of targets. Jordan Reed may be the preferred fantasy TE, but Dwelley logs more snaps and the disparate pricing ($5,000 for Reed to just $800 for big Ross) make Dwelley a bit of a value. There’s even room for a sneaky Nick Mullens stack on DK with one of the big WRs and either Dwelley or Reed. But I’ll likely avoid both TEs on FanDuel.
The Bills might have a tougher time connecting with their TEs this week, as the Niners should do a good job defending Dawson Knox and Tyler Kroft.
Tyler Bass and Robbie Gould are both viable on both sites, though using either at the DK captain spot could provide ample salary relief and plenty of value if they kick a couple of 50-yarders.
Week 13 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Feel confined to a classic narrative this week. Kickers are in play and we could even see a big defensive play or two that changes the whole landscape of the showdown,
DO: Count on a better game this week from Stefon Diggs. Last week was an anomaly and I expect something closer to his usual 15-20 points.
DON’T: Forget about Brandon Aiyuk and Gabriel Davis. Both rookies have enormous upside in any matchup.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Josh Allen
- Stefon Diggs
- Deebo Samuel
- Nick Mullens
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Raheem Mostert
- Cole Beasley
- Zack Moss
- Devin Singletary
- Gabriel Davis
- Tevin Coleman
- Bills DST
- Tyler Bass
- Robbie Gould
- 49ers DST
- Jordan Reed
- Ross Dwelley
- Jeff Wilson
- Jerick McKinnon
- Kendrick Bourne
