RBC Heritage Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 6 days ago
RBC Heritage Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 6 days ago
Daily Fantasy SportsFootball Defensive Determination for Oct 18. Michael Sicoli 6 months ago written by Michael Sicoli The IDP position is critical to your season-long #FantasyFootball builds and we have a Defensive Expert here to break it all down. Michael Sicoli profiles #idp plays in his newsletter each week and now he brings you a solid 3 from that list to trust. 6 months ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsNFLPremium Week 13 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Patriots at Bills jason mezrahi 2 years ago written by jason mezrahi The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 13 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.Let’s get to the game!Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candi... 2 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFLDaily Fantasy SportsPremium Week 12 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Bills at Saints Antonio D'Arcangelis 2 years ago written by Antonio D'Arcangelis The Thursday night showdown marks game three today, and we’ve got the picks to help you win in the Week 12 NFL DFS showdown contests on Thanksgiving night!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article. Week 12 NFL DFS is already underway, but tonig... 2 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFLDaily Fantasy SportsPremium Week 6 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Bills at Titans Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago written by Antonio D'Arcangelis The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 6 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.Let’s get to the game!Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candida... 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 David Stowe 3 years ago written by David Stowe Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17.If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you. Vegas Script: Total: 43, Steelers -4.5Yuck. That is all I have to say about this contest with the injury situation in Seattle. This will not be the prettiest game in the world but it should be a fun one to target for fantasy. Who would have thought that in 2021 we would be seeing Geno Smith starting a football game. I think the total is pretty spot on but I am not quite sold that a Seahawks team post legion of boom, without Chris Carson, and without Russell Wilson would only be 4.5 point dogs on a road game in Pittsburgh. One thing I am interested to see is the Steelers O-line and whether the league worst 2.3 seconds per throw will improve since this should be the easiest pass rush that the Steelers have faced to date. I do plan on taking a few shots on Big Ben in the event that he does get enough time to throw. I do not like the circumstances that he is dealing with but I am nowhere near as low on him as a QB as most others are. But that is the beauty of fantasy sports, we get to put some money on it and reap the rewards if we are correct.Captains:Chalk: Najee Harris, $17,700:The clear cut chalk in tonight’s game is Najee and I really do not think anyone will be within 5%. Najee as a rookie is already top three in the NFL in touches and leader in targets five weeks into the season and this game script is perfect for him to have a huge showing. If all goes to plan Najee will likely be the raw points leader when it is all said and done but there are a few options below that I think we can roll with to get a little different and get a little better value at captain in order to fit one extra “stud” in your build.Pivot: Dionte Johnson, $14,700:With no Juju tonight there are a handful of extra targets to go around tonight and even as bad as Big Ben looks this year Dionte’s big play ability and his 10-12 targets a game against this week Hawks D could be a points bonanza so as far as pivots go he is my main guy. My choice to go with Dionte over Claypool is simply due to the number of targets and I think Chase has slightly higher ownership as a captain so I am splitting the smallest of hairs here.Contrarian #1: Chase Claypool, $13,200:Chase is a beastly human being and he regularly turns 5 yard slants into 40 yard TD’s because of how strong he is. If you choose to roll with him as your captain over Dionte you are not going to see me complaining about it. My only concern as I noted above is that Dionte gets around double the targets as Claypool any given week but he can very easily turn 6 targets into 120 yards and 2 TD’s.Contrarian #2: DK Metcalf, $15,000:With Geno throwing the football I am in no way confident about the receiving corps of the Seahawks but if I had to choose one I am going to go for the bigger target with the inaccurate arm of Smith. Smith is going to make some terrible throws tonight but a physical talent like DK should be able to win a number of the 50/50 balls tonight and potentially convert them into big plays downfield. This will likely be the only time you will also see a players like DK in a showdown slate at sub 5% in the captain spot. Do not go overweight on this one as I have minimal confidence here but the leverage it provides is substantial if his talent can overcome the shortcomings at the QB position.Contrarian#3: Ben Roethlisberger, $16,500:Yes I know Ben has played like garbage this season but if we feel confident about Harris in the receiving game, Dionte Johnson, and Chase Claypool then it stands to reason that the person throwing the ball to them will have a good game as well. Ben has had the least amount of time to throw in the NFL (2.28 sec) so I am not 100% laying the blame at his feet just yet. This will be the weakest pass rush by far for the Steelers so if they can give been somewhere closer to 2.8 or maybe even 3 seconds that will give longer developing routes time to develop and maybe turn into some big plays for Ben. I know that everyone is quick to talk about his arm strength but when given the time I have seen him uncork several throws well over 50 yards this season and I do not think that anyone will be using him as a captain in tonight’s contest.WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 Flex Plays:Najee HarrisDionte JohnsonChase ClaypoolDK MetcalfTyler LockettBen RoethlisbergerAlex CollinsGino SmithGerald EveretteSteelers DPat FreiermuthChris BoswellJason MeyersEric EbronFreddie SwainWill DisslyTravis HomerKickers and defenses:This is a Sunday night game where Kickers and at least one defense is in play. With Geno Smith at QB for the Seahawks the Steelers defense could have themselves a huge night. He has never been able to make good choices with heavy pressure in his face and the Hawks O-line is yet again one of the worst in the NFL. Both Jason Meyers and Chris Boswell should get scoring opportunities with long field goals as It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content! 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10 David Stowe 3 years ago written by David Stowe Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.Vegas Script: Total: 56.5 Chiefs -3This game needs no explanation. The two highest-scoring offenses in the league square off against one another in a 56.5 total game. The story as of late has been the defense of the Bills if you ask the pundits, but we all know the truth. They played the Steelers, Dolphins, Washington, and Houston. It is easy to look dominant against backup QBs and the worst O-Line in the NFL. That flat-out just will not happen tonight. But enough of that let us take a look at the most obvious captain’s picks of the year and see where we can find some value because this is honestly one of the hardest showdowns you could play in due to the number of elite options out there on both sides.Captains:Chalk: Josh Allen $18,600:It’s 1A versus 1B between Mahomes and Allen tonight and I think the ownership will play that out. The only reason that I am going with Allen as the main chalk is the higher rushing upside and touchdown equity. After back-to-back 40 point outings for the Bills it is hard to say what they and Allen will be able to do with a team that can actually keep up with them.Pivot: Patrick Mahomes $18,000:It is Patrick Mahomes, what else do you need to know? I know the the big networks were slobbering over the recent play of the Bills defense but they have playing 3 of 4 games against backups and the Steelers have the worst protection schemes in the NFL on the o-line outside of the Jags and Bears (with Nagy calling plays)Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce, $13,800:Kelce let a ton of people down last week so the difference between him and Hill is next to nothing, but we can take that recency bias and hopefully get ourselves the slightest of benefit with ownership. After Hill went off for 50 DK last week I will lean on Kelce attacking the Bill’s safety’s tonight and being my preferred contrarian play at captain in this contest.Contrarian #2: Tyreek Hill12 catches for 186 yards and 3 TDs. That is what the cheetah did to the Eagles last week. Can he do it again, absolutely? But as I mentioned above I am trying to split the finest of hairs and I think we can get Kelce at a few percent discount at captain over Hill. Like everyone else in this article for captain choices, his body of work speaks for itself.Contrarian#3: Stefon Diggs :The Odd man out if you want to get different is Diggs. He has only had one game of over 20 DK points and everyone is shooting for the moon tonight so I think he comes in as by far the lowest “stud” captain. Allen has been finding multiple receivers with guys like Davis, Sanders, and Beasley on the field as well as Dawson Knox, Zack Moss, and Devin Singletary playing nicely in the early going. But in big games, the big-name players are the ones who are supposed to take over and this is a perfect spot to get different and leverage against the four players I listed about.WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10 Flex Plays:Emmanuel SandersZack MossDawson KnoxCole BeasleyClyde Edwards-HelaireMecole HardmanDemarcus RobinsonGabriel DavisByron Pringle Harrison ButkerTyler BassJosh GordonJody FortsonKickers and defenses:I am fully fading both of these defenses tonight but with so many high-priced guys if you absolutely have to throw in a kicker to upgrade elsewhere it is an easy way to get a solid floor. Just understand that if you choose to go that route you are going to be limited in your upside with a kicker in this kind of game so make sure that the trade-off is worth it.It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content! 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Collector’s Corner: NFL Playoffs – AFC Trading Cards jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi With the start of the NFL Playoffs, Collector’s Corner will take a look at what trading cards could see a bump based on their impending gridiron success. We’ll start with the AFC.Note: Collector’s Corner will use my DFS-derived Cash/GPP/Punt terminology (introduced in part 2 of my NBA preview piece) to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.First Round ByeKansas City ChiefsCash – Patrick Mahomes rookie trading cards remain the most sought-after and expensive slabs on the market. There’s still some room for growth, and the Chiefs appear poised for another Super Bowl run. If you can’t afford the 2017 rookies, there are plenty of 2018-2020 products that still command high prices and are worth grabbing. And the second-year PSA 9s won’t break your bankroll.GPP – Tyreek Hill and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are probably the two players with the most growth potential on the Chiefs, as a 2016 Panini Prizm Silver (in a PSA 10) sold for just $375 in November, and the injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (and acquisition of Le’Veon Bell) slowed the hype train on the Chiefs rookie RB. I just bought a gorgeous SGC 10 of Hill’s Prizm Silver rookie for $275 – I like the SGC slabs better anyway and this could easily be a $450-500 trading card if he shines again in the playoffs.Punt – Travis Kelce is a great player, but tight end trading cards don’t typically command the prices that QBs, RBs and even WRS do. Excluding his beautiful 2013 National Treasures autos and RPAs, Kelce’s rookies are affordable and prime for more growth as collectors realize what a generational talent he is at the position and how he’s a near lock for HOF enshrinement in Canton.Wild Card gamesThe Best: Bills, Ravens, TitansBuffalo BillsCash – Josh Allen is the guy to collect right now, period. I’m buying up Prizms and Donruss Rated Rookies – as well as any and all parallels when I can – and I’ve already seen 50% growth in a die-cut 2018 Obsidian Cutting Edge rookie patch card (pictured below) I got for under $50 a couple of weeks ago. His 2018 Prizm trading cards are selling for outrageous prices, but I think as long as the Bills aren’t done, neither is that profit potential. I really like his Prizm Red, White and Blue rookie card, which can be found in retail cello packs from that year. 2018 products are still a solid buy, as we’ve got Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Saquon Barkley in that class as well, and the prices dropped a bit with the Barkley injury and while Jackson struggled through some November chill.GPP – Stefon Diggs and Devin Singletary have a few things going against them for maximum value. Diggs rookies are in Minnesota Vikings gear, and Singletary splits the backfield with Zack Moss – who’s a solid rookie buy that hasn’t seen much of a jump at all. I might pivot to cheaper low-numbered 2020 Diggs parallels instead of shelling out big bucks for his Vikings trading cards.Punt – Gabriel Davis could have a solid career if he cuts down on the stupid penalties and continues to improve. There’s a lot to like about him and his cards are very affordable – but the Bills have lots of skill position players who could overshadow him.Some of the Gabriel Davis cards I’ve collected this past year. He’s a physically gifted receiver in a good spot for production in Buffalo.Baltimore RavensCash – Lamar Jackson falls just behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and ahead of Baker Mayfield (more on him later). He’s almost a GPP buy because of the questions about his long-term viability, but I think there’s still plenty of growth potential. If the Ravens can pull off a couple of playoff wins and he plays well – we could see an immediate jump back to the where the prices were in 2019.GPP – J.K. Dobbins is probably the best buy on the Ravens right now, and his cards remain cheap because he shares backfield duties with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram II. That won’t last, so get yourself one of his rookies.Punt – Patrick Queen and Devin Duvernay are cheap and while defensive players don’t fare all that well, standout Ravens ILBs have a legacy all their own. Duvernay has a lot of talent but needs some development before his cards do anything at all.Tennessee TitansCash – Derrick Henry is a beast, and there’s a live eBay auction right now for a PSA 10 Gem Mint example of his 2016 Prizm Silver rookie. It’ll be interesting to see how high it goes, since the recent sold examples encompass a wide range from $450 to well over $600.GPP – Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown trading cards have some juice, but they’d have a lot more if the Titans somehow went to the Super Bowl. Hey they came close last year!Punt – I might invest in a few Darrynton Evans and Corey Davis (2017) rookie cards, but they are definitely punts that would need a few planets to align before they saw a discernible jump.I’ve had this card since I pulled the redemption card in a 2017 Panini Phoenix hobby box that yielded terrible autos — but one awesome Rookie Rising parallel of Patrick Mahomes #d/49 that I sold raw (like a chump) a couple of years ago. If I only knew how high his cards would go in the ensuing two years…The Rest: Colts, Browns, SteelersIndianapolis ColtsCash – I highly recommend buying up the Colts in team breaks for their talented rookies – led by Jonathan Taylor. Taylor’s trading cards are on the rise but still affordable – and there’s lots of excellent products to choose from (2020 Mosaic, Prizm Draft, Prizm and Phoenix are my favorites).GPP – Michael Pittman, Jr. has a great frame and a bright future in the NFL. We’ve seen flashes of what he’s capable of, but he’s lost a bit in the exceptional 2020 WR class.Punt – Jacob Eason base cards are dirt cheap – because his future is uncertain compared to the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and even QB-in-waiting Jordan Love. Other than being buried on the depth chart for the rest of 2020, the biggest knock on his future is his mobility. If he has elite upside, it’s more Peyton Manning than Patrick Mahomes, since he doesn’t operate well in the muddy pockets that characterize modern NFL football.Cleveland BrownsCash – Baker Mayfield cards are selling for about one-quarter of what Josh Allen cards are commanding at the moment, which is pretty insane when you consider that both QBs have unlimited potential. Raw 2018 Prizm base rookies can be had for $15-20, and they’re hard to find in a PSA 10. If you see one of those for under $1K, buy it.GPP – Nick Chubb is a stud, and he’s part of that solid 2018 draft class. If I were a Browns fan, I’d be buying up all his stuff. I might just do it anyway.This 1/1 NFL Shield card of Chubb is for sale on eBay.Punt – I have a really sweet 2020 Harrison Bryant Prizm Draft Picks auto (numbered 6/25) for sale on eBay, and I get lowball offers for it all the time. I might just pull it off my listings if he shines in the playoffs.Pittsburgh SteelersCash – Some Ben Roethlisberger trading cards are quite expensive but base rookies still have some growth potential, especially if he can make another run at the Lombardi trophy. Sadly, I don’t think this team has the running game to get it done.GPP – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are all decent buys, but their long-term value depends on the future of the QB position.Punt – Anthony McFarland, Jr. is my buy-low guy, and I don’t think he’s been given a fair shot at touches with the other Steelers RBs struggling so much this season. Maybe he’ll break out in 2021.Stay tuned for Part 2 — the NFC! 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFLDaily Fantasy Sports Week 16 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Bills at Patriots Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago written by Antonio D'Arcangelis The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday Night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 16 NFL DFS contests!Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)Chalk: Josh Allen (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)Pivot: Stefon Diggs (DK $16,500, FD $15,500)Contrarian #1: Cam Newton (DK $13,500, FD $14,500)Contrarian #2: Cole Beasley (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)FD/DK Value: James White (DK $6,200 FLEX, FD $8,500), John Brown (DK $2,800 FLEX, FD $5,000)DK Punt: Isaiah McKenzie (DK $800 FLEX)One of the biggest Week 16 NFL DFS slate-breaking possibilities on Monday night surrounds the forthcoming activation of John Brown, who’s been on IR with an ankle injury. The Bills have until 4 p.m. to get him on the active roster if he’s to take the field in the game. He’s already put up individual game scores of 19.0 and 18.2 in weeks 1 and 2, and 17.9 and 13.2 in weeks 9 and 10 – the last time he played for Buffalo. Those performances suggest he’ll be a major NFL DFS factor in the offensive game plan if he suits up tonight, and his price on both sites – including at the FD minimum $5K – are criminally low. UPDATE: Brown was activated from IR at 4 p.m. today and immediately placed on the COVID-19 reserve list as a close contact of T.J. Yeldon, who tested positive this weekend. He’ll likely stay inactive until Week 17 (if they need to improve their seeding) or in the Wild Card round.If Brown is active, that might take a few prospective targets away from Cole Beasley, but the Beas operates primarily out of the slot and is still capable of monster games alongside Brown, who tweaked his ankle in the 4th quarter of Week 10 when the former Cowboys WR scored 30.9 DK points against the Cardinals. Obviously, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are great plays regardless of whether or not Brown suits up, but rookie playmaker Gabriel Davis would presumably see significantly fewer snaps if Brown is ready to go. I love the way that Davis goes and gets passes; he’s physical and uses his body well.UPDATE: Expect a typical target share for Beasley and more looks for Davis with Brown inactive.I like both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, though it’s possible we see a few more snaps in passing situations go to Singletary over the next couple of weeks, since Allen and the Bills are closing in on an exclusive NFL record. They’ve have had 13 different players catch a touchdown pass in 2020, tying the NFL record set by the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. The record was tied when Allen hooked up a TD with Jake Kumerow in the second quarter last week. Singletary remains the odd man out among the Bills’ available skill position players, as both Moss and T.J. Yeldon already have TD receptions this year. If he doesn’t go to Singletary, KR Andre Roberts and LT Dion Dawkins are the only other regular players with any TD receptions in their careers.On the other side, I only have interest in Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, James White and Damien Harris – who is a game-time decision with a lingering ankle injury that has capped his practice time these past two weeks. Harris was inactive in Week 15 and yielded his usual role to a rusty Sony Michel. Keep an eye on Jarrett Stidham too, since Newton could get pulled if he turns the ball over a lot or gets injured.Michel could make a few of my builds if Harris doesn’t play, but the Bills run defense has been much better over the past few weeks – particularly because they’ve scored so many points that teams have been forced to play catchup through the air. I’ll have some shares of the Bills DST as well, since the return of a few key pieces and LB Matt Milano has seemingly rejuvenated this group.Week 16 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.DO: Play Josh Allen. He’s not a wise fade even though the matchup isn’t ideal.DON’T: Forget about John Brown. If he’s active, he could play a major role in this game. …forget about Gabriel Davis, who’s got the talent and ability to make a huge impact again this week.Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on Week 16 NFL DFS overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):Josh AllenStefon DiggsCole BeasleyCam NewtonDevin SingletaryJakobi MeyersDamien Harris (ankle, GTD)Zack MossJames WhiteGabriel DavisBills DSTDawson KnoxDamiere ByrdSony Michel (if Harris inactive)Tyler BassN’Keal HarryNick FolkIsaiah McKenziePats DSTDalton Keene 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFLPremium Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 Uriah Wesson 3 years ago written by Uriah Wesson Good evening everyone, once again the NFL has bestowed upon us a random day of the week to enjoy some NFL action and they have given us a couple of contests that are actually fantastic for GPP plays and leverage points that we can take advantage of. As always be mindful that we are going to have to ... 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFLDaily Fantasy Sports Week 13 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Bills at 49ers jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in one of the final Week 13 NFL DFS contests!Introduction to Single-Game ShowdownsDraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.Let’s get to the game!Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.Chalk: Josh Allen (DK $17,400, FD $16,500)Pivot: Stefon Diggs (DK $16,200, FD $14,500)Contrarian #1: Raheem Mostert (DK $14,400, FD $14,000)Contrarian #2: Deebo Samuel (DK $13,200, FD $12,000)DK Punt: Ross Dwelley ($1,200)The Bills are slight favorites in this game, and Josh Allen sticks out as the player from both teams sporting the highest fantasy upside – though the recently effective running of both Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss may eat into Allen’s rushing TD total the rest of the way.The main concern is that the 49ers neutralize Allen much in the same way the Broncos did Patrick Mahomes last night, and for that reason there’s no need to exclusively focus on the Bills QB. But there’s reason no obvious pivot on the 49ers – as the Bills defense has LB Matt Milano back and has shored up their injury issues in the secondary. I’d probably be willing to attack the Niners less-than-stellar secondary with Stefon Diggs and sprinkle in a couple of 49ers players, but salary is going to be problems if you play the CPT spot straight this week. I personally love rookie WR Gabriel Davis, though I may have more shares of Cole Beasley this week. I could see him confounding the Niners out of the slot.The multi-headed 49ers running attack has a clear lead dog in Raheem Mostert – one of the toughest and most physical runners in the NFL. He returned to his normal role in a game against the Rams last week, and we’ll haver to pay attention to the gameday inactives to see if the 49ers sit any of Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson – all of whom could have a significant role in cracking this showdown based on the their low salaries and upside should an injury or game script (the 49ers having to play from behind) come into play.Both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are elite options for the 49ers, and I might be limiting my 49ers ownership to one or both of them in some builds – but I do have some abiding interest in Ross Dwelley, who has 8-12 point upside even if he gets a handful of targets. Jordan Reed may be the preferred fantasy TE, but Dwelley logs more snaps and the disparate pricing ($5,000 for Reed to just $800 for big Ross) make Dwelley a bit of a value. There’s even room for a sneaky Nick Mullens stack on DK with one of the big WRs and either Dwelley or Reed. But I’ll likely avoid both TEs on FanDuel.The Bills might have a tougher time connecting with their TEs this week, as the Niners should do a good job defending Dawson Knox and Tyler Kroft.Tyler Bass and Robbie Gould are both viable on both sites, though using either at the DK captain spot could provide ample salary relief and plenty of value if they kick a couple of 50-yarders.Week 13 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense togetherDON’T: Feel confined to a classic narrative this week. Kickers are in play and we could even see a big defensive play or two that changes the whole landscape of the showdown,DO: Count on a better game this week from Stefon Diggs. Last week was an anomaly and I expect something closer to his usual 15-20 points.DON’T: Forget about Brandon Aiyuk and Gabriel Davis. Both rookies have enormous upside in any matchup.Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):Josh AllenStefon DiggsDeebo SamuelNick MullensBrandon AiyukRaheem MostertCole BeasleyZack MossDevin SingletaryGabriel DavisTevin ColemanBills DSTTyler BassRobbie Gould49ers DSTJordan ReedRoss DwelleyJeff WilsonJerick McKinnonKendrick Bourne 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
