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The Range: RBC Heritage at Harbour Town GL

Austin Harmon
written by Austin Harmon

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour heads to South Carolina as the players face off in the RBC Heritage.

The Basics

Course: Harbour Town Golf Links at the Sea Pines Resort
Par: 71
Length: 7,099 Yards
Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass
Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass (3,700 sq ft average)
Architect: Pete Dye (1969)
Past five winners: ’19 Pan (-12), ’18 Kodiara (-12), ’17 Bryan (-13), ’16 Grace (-9) and ’15 Furyk (-18)
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.

Course Breakdown

The RBC Heritage in many ways is like Colonial the week before. Many holes are narrow (though they have been made wider since 2019), tree lined that limits the big hitters. Greens are small, even smaller than those at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week on average. Low final scores are a bit of a scarcity as four of the last five winners were held to -15 or higher, with the lone exception of Furyk in 2015.

Usually the field isn’t this strong, especially coming off of The Masters the week prior. With the Covid break in the tour, the field at the RBC Heritage is the strongest it’s been in years, possibly ever. The top six golfers in the world (OWGR) and 15/20. This will not be a cake walk.

With the lower than tour average finish, looking at golfers who perform well in average to difficult scoring conditions is a great first step. The fairways will be a challenge to land the ball in-between the trees and if there is an errant drive (with the lack of fans) balls may become lost. If the golfers do land the ball in the fairway their approach game has to be on point. These greens are tiny with many of the them being protected by bunkers. Once the golfers have landed on the Bermudagrass greens, putting will be crucual.

Here is a look at the top 10 golfers over the last 12 rounds who have performed well (SG:TOT) with all three conditions being present.

Player Fit

For the RBC Heritage four of the five toughest holes fall in the range of 450 – 500 yards and all are par 4. On the other end, the two easiest holes are in between 500 – 550 and both are par 5. Being able to score when given the opportunity in these ranges will go a long way in ascending the leader board. This is a second shot course, a Pete Dye specialty. While the approach shot will vary from each golfer, on average, they range between 175 – 200 yards.

I know it sounds like common sense but both Birdie or Better and Bogey Avoidance are big pieces of the puzzle. For Draftkings, you have to be able to score points to win. While you want your golfers to finish as high as possible, making the most of the opportunity to score is so important. Last week Patrick Reed finished T7 but was the second highest scoring golfer for the week. Opportunity Gained is a Fantasy National stat and while it cannot be shared with non subscribers, rest assure it is incorporated to my model.

To make it simple, Ball Striking is always king (impart to it combining two main stats). Ball striking take into account both SG:OTT and SG: APP. Normally it would be an even split, but for Harbour Town I’m setting it to 60/40.

Missing the green isn’t a question of if, but when. Golfers need to be able to get up and down when off the green. SG:ARG is a great starting point. Players who do well with scrambling and GIR, will be another set of stats for this week.

Here are the top 10 golfers that perform well with all conditions met over the last 12 rounds.

Final Recap of the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town GL

Wind seems to be manageable at the time of this writing but being closer to the water, you never know. There does seem to be some rain in the forecast though both for Thursday and Saturday. If it looks like there is a possible wave play I’ll add it to the discord come Wednesday night.

As we saw last week, some of the golfers simply looked rusty. While many of the same golfers are teeing it up this week as before, keep a look out for “newcomers”. While the fields have never been as strong, winners tend to come out of no where at Harbour Town GL. Despite the soft pricing, this might be the week to take some shots with the darts.

Course Setup
Average to Difficult Scoring
Hard to hit fairways / Second Shot Course
Bermudagrass Greens (Small in circumference)

Player Efficiencies
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 Yards
Proximity: 175 – 200 Yards

Birdie or Better
Bogey Avoidance
Opportunity Gained
DraftKings Scoring

Ball Striking

SG: Around the Green
Scrambling
GIR

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research for the RBC Heritage at Harbourt Town GL. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

Stat Source: Fantasy National GC

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PGA

Charles Schwab Challenge Ownership Breakdown

Michael Rasile
written by Michael Rasile

Charles Schwab Challenge Ownership Breakdown

The time is near, we have the PGA to thank.
Let’s comb thru this data of the Charles Schwab Challenge Ownership Breakdown, and put the money in the bank! Let’s all go try and take down that Million Dollars from DraftKings!

Last year the Colonial played as the 7th hardest course relative to par. It ranked near the bottom in strength of field. Not anymore.

Ownership Breakdown Percentage | DraftKings

Rory McILroy and Web Simpson will battle it out for top ownership %, presently at 24% and rising.

They are followed by John Rahm, Sunjae IM, Patrick Reed and Colin Morikawa (sorry Patrick) at 18% ownership and on an uptick.

Justin Thomas and Xander Shauffele are holding steady at 15%.

English, Kuchar, DJ, Na, Fowler, and Spieth are between 10 and 14%.

DeChambeau, Hovland, An, Fitzpatrick (my compliments Jason), Moore and Lowry are all sub 10 percent, ranging from 8% down to 5%.

The reason I mention these golfers above is that they all have a high percentage to make the cut, and a 20% + chance to make top 20 in the tourney, with the exception of Jordan Spieth, who is still a respectable 15% to make top 20. The following players deserve a mention as well.

M Leishman – 11% owned, 27% to T20
K Kisner – 11% owned 19% to T20
C.Conners – 11% owned 18% to T20
J. Day – 7% owned 25% to T20

R Moore, S Lowry, C Reavie, V Taylor, R Knox,C. Bezuidenhout, B Cauley, T Hoge all are under 5% ownership with 15% odds to make T 20.

High Priced | DraftKings

At first I was high on Rahm, after he said he’s just “praying not to shank the first 7 balls I hit…and I just need to work the rust off.” I’m going to pass and look hard at Rory and Bryson, with JT following closely behind Bryson. Also  I wasn’t planning on rostering Koepka, after he said “my game is really coming around, after the Players it’s now a million times better.” Okay, that’s a few lineups for me, thank you. Sunjae Im has been playing 5 hours every day, so he is ready. Kevin Na: “I spent all my time at home, loved it, didn’t play any golf, I may be a bit rusty.” Sergio just had a baby! Congrats, No roster for you!

If you are playing in a high player GPP I wouldn’t go with more than 1 of the high priced players, and to be contrarian, I don’t feel it’s necessary to roster any. Web Simpson is popping all over my models, at 25% ownership, I may put him in 1 lineup in multiples and pivot to a lower owned choice, grudgingly.

In the mid tier it’s Day, Kuchar and Sheffler popping, with Day being one of the best contrarian pivots due to ownership,value,and a decent short game.

Golfers of NoteOdds to make cut (%)Odds to T20(%)
Xander S74.237.6
P Reed70.934.3
Sunjae IM69.733.8
C Morikawa69.632.9
DJ69.132.0
S Scheffler68.930.9
R Fowler66.928.6
M Fitzpatrick66.428.1
M Kuchar65.927.9
B Koepka63.925.8
J Day62.724.2
T Finau62.622.9
D Berger59.819.7
R Sabbatini57.518.4
K Kisner56.317.5
D Lee53.215.6
M Homa50.714.2

Max was the last to be close, although he didn’t quite hit the 15%, he has the short game to get a pass.

Value Plays | DraftKings

Adam Hadwin, B An, Abraham Ancer, Billy Horschel and Harris English are the top value plays with Jim Furyk, Ryan Moore, Bryan Harmon and Conners secondary value plays.

Deep deep sleepers: Munoz, Cauley, Duncan, Redmon, Cabrera-Bello, Stricker, Todd, – roster if you’re feeling frosty!

If you don’t see your golfers name listed anywhere above, it’s because of ownership, value, DraftKings pricing or data, and it doesn’t mean you can’t roster him. I haven’t listed any golfers with a less than 50% chance to make the cut, and at least a 15% chance to make the top 20. I feel the best golfers to get you the money are there, and I’ll be glad to answer any queries in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat once the writers reports are in. Make sure to keep checking Win Daily Sports for all the up to date news on all your Golf bets and DFS plays.

As always, I hope to see you there, in the money.

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PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Players Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full, stacked tournament field of 144 golfers – 110 being PGA Tour winners
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • The course: TPC Sawgrass
  • 7,189 yards, Par 72 – Pete Dye design
  • Small and fast TifEagle Bermuda greens
  • Mix of hole types (short and long)
  • Holes 17 and 18 are very challenging – bogeys and doubles are common
  • Defending champ: Rory McIlroy (2019)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Off the Tee; Birdie or Better%; SG: Putting; SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Efficiency (550-600); SG: Ball Striking

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,700, FD $12,200) – I picked Rory to win last week and he’s the betting favorite again (+650) despite his difficulties on Sunday at the Arnold Palmer invitational. He’s the defending champ here, and while there’s never been a golfer to win this event back-to-back, he’s in a class by himself. We can’t do a full fade but his putting issues (outside 10 feet) make me feel comfortable aligning with the field’s overall ownership levels in GPPs or coming slightly under that percentage.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – I will try to be overweight on Rahm this week because his form has been almost as impressive as McIlroy’s and he’s coming in fresh after a two-week layoff that kept him out of the carnage that has been the first two legs of the Florida Swing. Rahm checks all the boxes and trails only Rory and JT in my mixed model this week, so he’ll make over half of my GPP builds.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800, FD $11,900) – Like Rahm, JT hasn’t played since the WGC-Mexico, and that might not be a bad thing. He’s likely been working on his game, which suits this course well because of his great SG: Approach numbers, short game, and penchant for making birdies and eagles. Thomas ranks second on my mixed model, should see lower ownership than Rory, and has solid course history at the Players (5-for-5, two Top 15s).

Adam Scott (DK $9,600, FD $11,500) – Scott’s price is somewhat elevated on FanDuel, but it makes sense given his history at Sawgrass, which includes a Top 12 or better in each of his last four starts. A course horse if there ever was one, Scott manages his way around this course and should be in contention this weekend. It’ll be tough for him to close against such a stacked field, but he’s in my mix for GPPs.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,100, FD $11,300) – Bryson seemed more at ease on Sunday down the stretch at the API and should build on his strong finish with confidence at a course that he’s played better each of the two seasons he’s participated (T37 in his 2018 debut and T20 last year). I think he’s a great bet in all formats for his price and consistency and has a shot at winning the whole thing despite odds (+2700) that come in longer than Scott, Patrick Cantlay and Webb Simpson.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,000, FD $11,000) – The Englishman plays well at Sawgrass and will avoid high ownership because of his MC at the API (and we can throw out a lot of the elite golfers’ finishes because of how brutal conditions were last week). He should be rested and ready to play well and string together a slew of birdies, capitalizing on solid all-around numbers.

Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka (GPP only), Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson

Rory, JT and Rahm make up the top three available options based on the focus stat categories.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600to $8,900):

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,900, FD $10,800) – This could be the week that Rickie avoids the big number and finds his way into the Top 5 again. He won here in 2015 and has a spotty course history since, but I like him in GPPs. A risky play at $8,900, he does have winning upside if his putter continues to shine, and his ownership should land way under 10 percent in GPPs.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,800, FD $10,900) – Nobody really dominates at the Players, but Matsuyama is 4-for-5 with all four of those made cuts landing him among the Top 25. He’s top five in several of our SG focus stats and makes for a fine under-the-radar play at an insanely affordable cost this week. I’ll try to double the field ownership on this ball-striker extraordinaire.

Patrick Reed (DK $8,500, FD $10,500) – Some of the DK pricing this week is quite peculiar, and Reed at just $8,500 is an anomaly I’ll be taking advantage of regardless of field ownership (which isn’t currently projected to crack 15 percent). His status as a tour villain makes him a great candidate in GPPs, and his poor history here doesn’t discourage me as much as it would if he was priced way above $9K.

Tony Finau (DK $8,100, FD $10,200) – Finau sports solid SG: APP and general ball-striking numbers, and he’s improved each year he’s played TPC Sawgrass. He’s a sneaky off-the-radar GPP play who ranks sixth (right after an uber-popular Cantlay) in my mixed model. Finau makes a great wild-card component on GPP builds with a couple of studs and two other mid-tier cut-maker bargains.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,800, FD $9,700) – I wish I could say that Kuchar fares well in my models, but he’s actually in the middle of the pack around the “cutline” at 64th (sandwiched between Russell Knox and Talor Gooch). Still, he’s a veteran golfer who’s more than the sum of his parts and there’s some decent course history here including a third-place finish in 2016 and a win back in 2012. The price is affordable and I think he’s a fine risk-reward GPP play based on his form (six Top 15s in his last nine tournaments).

Marc Leishman (DK $7,600, FD $9,700) – Leishman has historically struggled at the Players (two MC in his last three tries here and one Top 25 in the past five installments), hence his bargain price this week despite winning the Farmers in January and finishing second last week at the API to Tyrell Hatton. He falls just outside the Top 20 in my model and I’ll trust his ball-striking and SG: APP numbers to give him Top 15 upside come Sunday.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,500, FD $8,700) – Scheffler fared well in his debut at Bay Hill and will be making his first appearance at the Players this week. It’s not usually a course we like for virgin competitors, but Scheffler’s talent seems to keep him afloat and in contention, even in tougher fields. Don’t sleep on this young man and his ability to post low scores.

Also consider: Paul Casey, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP only) Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, Byeong Hun An

Here we find Poulter, Tringale Cauley, and some other value plays among stars like Fleetwood and Fowler.

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500and under):

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7,400 FD $9,000) – Hatton kept it together on Sunday and took home the red cardigan at the API  — and the entire team at WinDaily Sports was high on him. As much as we’d like to cross him off our list given his poor history here and the traditional axiom of avoiding last week’s winner, he’s popping in my models as the No. 13 golfer this week. Last week must have been a confidence boost and I’ll be making room for him on GPPs lineups.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,300, FD $9,200) – Fitzpatrick keeps getting closer and closer to breaking through with a win – he just needs to give himself more realistic chances at birdie. The short game is remarkably consistent and there’s plenty of things to like about his game tee-to-green and his last two finishes (T46, T41) here at TPC Sawgrass. He’s got Top 25 upside at an affordable price this week, so I can’t fade him.

Daniel Berger (DK $7,200, FD $9,400) – Berger has three straight disappointing finishes here (all made cuts, though) and a Top 10 in 2016. He’s among the Top 20 in my model this week and his form is excellent (T4, T5, T9 in his last three events with his last MC coming at the Houston Open in October). I love his upside and bargain price for all formats.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,300, FD $9,500) – Another veteran golfer who manages his way around this challenging TPC layout, Poulter takes advantage of scoring opportunities when he can. He’s ground his way to Top 40 finishes in difficult conditions the past two weeks, and he’s experienced enough here to avoid big numbers, make the cut (5-for-5 and finish on the leaderboard (T2 in 2017).

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Ancer finished T12 here in his 2019 debut and is a fine all-around fit based on his strengths from tee to green. His worst numbers are around and on the green, so he’s a risky play best reserved for GPPs. I have a couple of better plays in mind, but I’ll have some shares.

Joel Dahmen (DK $6,600, FD $8,100) – Speaking of GPP-only golfers whose short game is their main weakness, Dahmen is almost a direct analog for Ancer in his course history (also finished T12 in his debut last year) and focus stats (he’s 52nd in my model while Ancer is 53rd). He’s actually a safer play than Ancer based on his current form (T5, T5, and T14 in his last three starts) and a better bargain on both sites.

Cameron Tringale (DK $6,600, FD $7,300) – Tringale hasn’t played the Players since 2017, but he’s 3-for-3 here and has made the cut in 11 of his last 12 events. He fares incredibly well (no. 23) in my mixed model and is a solid value play to round out your builds in almost any format.

Brian Harman (DK $6,400, FD $7,200) – There’s not a lot of overwhelming upside under $6,500 this week, but Harman is on my shortlist of punts for his course history (Top 10s in two of his last five at Sawgrass) and cut-making ability. He also ranks 27th in my model, so his all-around ball striking and short game abilities are well suited for this track.

Bud Cauley (DK $6,200, FD $7,600) – Cauley’s weaknesses lie in his poor SG: OTT numbers and his pedestrian BoB% numbers, but at these prices and considering his recent stretch of made cuts, I’ll hang on the positive numbers that stick out: He’s 34thin the field for SG: APP and 13th in SG: ARG.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,100, FD $7,500) – I’m taking a big risk with Munoz after his brutal MC last week (he made a 7 on the Par 5 6th hole, his 15th of the day, to put him at +5 – while the cut landed at +3). He’s also making his debut this week, but my models love him (18th overall in the field), so I’ll be using him in two or three out of 20 GPP entries.

More value golfers for GPPs: Matt Wallace, Si Woo Kim, Andrew Landry, Jimmy Walker, Jhonattan Vegas, Jim Furyk, Talor Gooch, Adam Long, Kevin Tway

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PGA DFS Picks: The Arnold Palmer Invitational

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Invite-only, stacked tournament field of 121 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • The course: Bay Hill
  • 7,454 yards, Par 72 – Dick Wilson design w/Arnold Palmer redesign
  • TifEagle Bermuda greens (fast) and Celebration Bermuda fairways
  • Plenty of water (in play on half the holes)
  • Much easier than PGA National (Three of last five winners at -17 or better)
  • Defending champ: Francesco Molinari (2019)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; Par 4 efficiency (450-500), Par 5 Efficiency (550-600); Proximity (200+; Opportunities Gained; Birdie or Better%; Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,800, FD $12,200) – Rory is the tourneyfavorite and a former API champion who’s been playing some of the best golf ofhis career with six straight Top 5 finishes. The world No. 1 is also 5-for-5 atBay Hill with a sub-70 scoring average in 20 rounds. He’ll obviously bepopular, but I can’t support a fade.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,600,FD $11,600) – Matsuyama has excellent tee-to-green numbers andranks highly in my model despite a lackluster course history that’s missing aTop 5. He’s been playing solid golf lately (five Top 10s in his last 10 starts)and this could be the year he finally breaks through.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,400, FD $11,700) – The bulkier Bryson will be a popular pick this week, but he’s got the game to dominate here and hasn’t missed a cut in three tries – his best finish a solo second coming in 2018. The longer holes are less of a problem now that he’s acquired some extra distance, and he’s notched top 15 finishes in six of his last eight tournaments.

Brooks Koepka (DK $9,200, FD $11,400) – He’s likely to be low-owned (terrible course history, MC at the Honda Classic) but is emerging in my mixed model (No. 3 overall after Rory and Hideki) as a golfer to target despite his struggles. Koepka loves playing against the best in the world, and actually struck the ball okay last week but fell victim (like so many others) to a fickle golf course that rattled more than a few cages. The greens here this week will more resemble what golfers face at Augusta and at U.S. Open venues, so I’m buying.

Patrick Reed (DK $9,400, FD $11,100) – Reed may struggle with 200+ approaches and long par 3s, but those are the only focus stat categories that give me pause. The rest of his game is a solid fit and he’s notched a Top 10 here (2018) in two appearances (T50 last season). Reed may be a golf villain, but he’s a PGA DFS darling.

Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler

Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka should be solid PGA DFS pick this week based on the player efficiencies that come into play at Bay Hill.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Tony Finau (DK $8,900, FD $10,700) – He’s still looking for a victory on a full-field PGA event (we won the Puerto Rico Open in 2016 in a playoff and is 0-2 since (losing in stunning fashion to Webb Simpson a month ago in Phoenix). But Finau excels on long Par 4s and 5s, has solid SG: APP and 200+ approach numbers, and could see lower ownership this week since he skipped the Honda Classic.

Henrik Stenson (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) – We can’t really call Stenson a sleeper pick, but he’s been largely off the radar since winning the Hero World Challenge in December. A superb ball-striker who checks a lot of the boxes we’re looking for at Bay Hill, he’s had a couple Top 5 finishes here.

Byeong Hun An (DK $8,700, FD $10,300) – Once again, we’re relying on An’s elite ball-striking, and we can take something from his continued improvement at this event. We know that putting well and making the cut are the biggest challenges for him, but he’s good enough tee-to-green to avoid some of the landmines (long rough, water) and get himself into position for the weekend.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,500, FD $10,200) – I love this guy. He finished second here last year after missing the cut in 2018 and a couple of decent finishes (T27 in 2016, T13 in 2017) the previous two seasons. The models don’t show as much love for Fitzpatrick, but course history and cut-making are drawing me in once again in GPPs.

Tyrell Hatton (DK $8,100, FD $9,900) – Hatton is quite affordable this week and if he can keep his head on straight, he could relive some of the glory from his Top 5 finish in 2017. He doesn’t excel in one area but overall is the 20th ranked golfer on my models. I like the price, the form, and the upside.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) – Hovland made the cut here last season in his debut (T40) and now has a PGA Tour victory under his belt. He’s also the fourth-ranked golfer in my mixed model and puts himself in a great position to score well. Throw out last week’s MC on a brutal golf course and you get a fine bargain for just $8K on DraftKings.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,700, FD $9,400) – Scheffler is making his debut at Bay Hill but his game suits this course very well, sporting Top 20 marks in Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better, Par 4s (450-500), Par 5s (550-600) and even long Par 3s (200-225). I’ll have shares in all formats, and I’m considering putting him in my single-entry lineup core.

Also consider: Marc Leishman, Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Max Homa, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Ian Poulter

Just because they are not in the Top 25 on my mixed model, does not mean they won’t fare well in the API. This 26-50 range has plenty of golfers to target.

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,500, FD $9,400) – We’re getting a sizeable discount on Niemann and he’s one of many attractive golfers in the $6,500 to $7,500 range this week. He’s has a couple of MCs in his last two starts but he ranks highly in my mixed model (No. 11 overall with an emphasis on SG: APP) and this venue suits him well.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,400, FD $9,100) – Moore had a Top 5 here in 2018 and is worth a look in large-field GPPs for his Strokes Gained numbers.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) – McNealy turned a few heads last week and has some impressive finishes among his last four tourneys (T11, T27, T5, T5). He’s solid around the greens and has greatly improved his ball-striking in 2020.

Harold Varner (DK $7,100, FD $8,300) – A GPP-only play who excels on 200+ yard approaches (No. 1 in the field), Varner has made his last two cuts and should come in well under 10% ownership.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,100, FD $8,700) – Ortiz is 2-for-2 at Bay Hill and we could see a breakthrough week for the Mexican native who fares well on long Par 4s. Work him in a few of your builds.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100, FD $8,000) – Grillo has many flaws, but his SG: APP numbers are good and he’s sixth on the field for Opportunities Gained. He’s hard to trust but is 3-for-3 here (including a T7 in 2017) despite missing the event in 2019.

Tom Hoge (DK $7,000, FD $8,000) – Hoge is cheap, he’s ranked just outside the Top 25 in my mixed model, and he’d made five straight cuts before his MC at the Honda last week.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,900, FD $8,600) – Munoz is making his API debut but is popping on my mixed model as the No. 6 golfer overall. If you believe in data, he should make the cut and emerge as a viable Top 25 candidate with Top 10 upside. He’s a risk-reward GPP play I’ll have big shares of this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700, FD $7,900) – Another talented young player who can get hot and spike a Top 20 finish despite the cheap price tag, Higgs can help you fit in some elite golfers like Rory and DeChambeau without the risk of the other sub-$7K longshots.

More value golfers for GPPs: Lucas Glover, Scott Piercy, Charles Howell, Corey Conners, Rory Sabbatini, Adam Long, Lanto Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Matt Wallace, Doc Redman

Once we get outside the Top 50, were looking at GPP-only plays with some flaws in their game.
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PGA DFS Picks: Genesis Open at Riviera CC

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Genesis Open and helping you find some winning teams!

Your PGA DFS picks this week should focus on including both stars and scrubs lineups and a more balanced approach.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Stacked tournament field of 120 golfers (invitational)
  • Tourney host Tiger Woods tees it up along with 119 other golfers he hand-picked to include many of the world’s best
  • The course: Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles, CA
  • 7,322 yards, Par 71
  • Poa annua greens, Kikuyu grass in fairways and rough
  • Long par 4s, long approaches (many at 175+ yards)
  • Cut: 36-hole cut, so top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Defending champ: J.B. Holmes
  • Course comp: Quail Hollow
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Around-the-Green; Driving Distance; Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500; Proximity: 175-200

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,600, FD $12,200) – The new No. 1 player in the world, and the betting favorite, Rory checks all the boxes at Riviera. He hasn’t yet won here, so I’m personally hoping for a Rory-Tiger showdown on Sunday.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – JT remains one of the favorites to win here, and while I won’t be all in, there’s plenty of reasons not to fade him – including two straight Top 10s (a second-place finish last season among them).

Tiger Woods (DK $10,400, FD $11,600) – This was the site of his first PGA event (way back in 1992 when he played as a 16-year-old), but he’s never won here. I’d love to see him breakthrough with his first victory, and he certainly has the game and profile to do it. I’ll just be happy to come in slightly ahead of the field in terms of GPP ownership.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,800, FD $11,400) – I love him this week, and while I’m not alone in that regard, I’ll be sure to be well ahead of the field in terms of ownership. If Koepka and Rory make 40-50 percent of my GPP builds, Cantlay will be next at around 35-40 percent.

Brooks Koepka (DK $9,400, FD $11,500) – The fact that Koepka missed the cut here in his only try (2017) will keep his ownership down, but it’s hilarious that he’s cheaper than both Tiger and Bubba Watson. I’ll have plenty of exposure in GPPs for this grinder on a grinder’s course. He’s second on my rankings after Rory.

Adam Scott (DK $9,000, FD $10,800) – Scott isn’t as exciting as many of the other golfers in the $9K range, but he’s had a good track record here and won the Australian PGA Championship in December. There could be some rust, but I still like him for his Par 4 (450-500) stats.

Also consider: Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama

My model rankings show studs up top and some value plays like Carlos Ortiz, Bud Cauley and Erik Van Rooyen filling out the Top 25.

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,100 to $8,900):

Marc Leishman (DK $8,700, FD $10,500) – Leishman, like the next golfer on our list, has all the attributes we look for at Riviera, and with a reduced price because of the studs clogging the “elite” cost range. I’m far from all in, but it won’t be a complete fade.

Justin Rose (DK $8,500, FD $10,700) – He’s an excellent ball striker who outclasses a lot of the field on long approaches. He makes for a solid GPP play considering his MC at the Farmers and T4 finish here last season. A solid Top 10 bet with winning upside.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) – I think he’ll make the cut and he’s a weekly threat to finish Top 10. He should excel here because of his SG: ARG stats, and I’m not too concerned about him missing the cut here last season in his first try. We’ve seen guys fare poorly here a first-timers and figure it out quickly.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK ($7,700, FD $9,700) – I’m betting on Fitzy shaking off the bad week on the roller coaster that is the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and getting right back to what he does best – firing low scores and filling out GPP lineups with enormous upside.

Kevin Na (DK ($7,600, FD $9,600) – We can’t count him out based on his course history T2 in 2018 and T4 in 2017). I’m not the biggest fan of his game and I’ve been burned by his WDs before (haven’t we all?), but there’s plenty of value here.

Branden Grace (DK ($7,500, FD $9,600) – Do you like discounts? Grace’s price has dropped $1,800 since last week, and we can take advantage of the soft pricing and roster this South African golfer who has gone on record that he likes this track for its similarity to his home courses.

Joaquin Niemann (DK ($7,300, FD $9,400) – We saw a Joaquin do well in LA at the Oscars, and now it’s this guy’s turn to shine and rise like a Phoenix. He fits all the focus stats categories with the glaring exception of SG: ARG, but he managed to make the cut and finish 44th here last year as a first-timer. Clearly a GPP-only play, Niemann will make about 10-20 percent of my builds.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,100, FD $8,900) – If you’re looking for a great value play, look no further than Kokrak, who’s popping on all my models for his balance of ball-striking and distance and is 5/5 here with a T2 in 2016. If the short game comes through he could make an appearance on the leaderboard come Sunday.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Paul Casey, Charles Howell, Ryan Moore, Max Homa, Cameron Champ, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Hadwin

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,000 and under):

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $7,000, FD $8,800) – Full disclosure – I use Van Rooyen a lot in GPPs and love his combo of ball striking and distance. He’s not the best around the greens, so he’s always an X-factor for that reason and not my favorite cash gameplay.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $6,800, FD $8,400) – He might be popular this week, especially if folks are looking at course history and the same focus stats as we are. Carlos putts well on poa annua and ranks well on long Par 4s (450-500).

Martin Laird (DK $6,500, FD $8,000) – Another horse for the course, Laird loves the West Coast and had three straight Top 15 finishes here from 2016-2018 before missing the cut in 2019. He ranks 23rd in the field on Par 4s (450-500), and he’s quite a bargain.

Michael Thompson (DK $6,400, FD $7,300) – I had to change one number from last week’s writeup: “I like that he finished T10 T7 here last year and ranks highly in the Strokes Gained (overall) and SG: ARG categories. Worth a look in GPPs, but very risky.”

Talor Gooch (DK $6,300, FD $7,600) – Gooch is a cut maker and he’s finished in 20th place in his only appearance here in 2018. He’s incredibly cheap and should be a staple of my GPP builds.

Luke List (DK $6,600, FD $7,700) – List was one of the hottest golfers in DFS back in 2018, and he’s had his share of ups and downs. But he’s coming off a couple of made cuts and decent play at the Farmers Insurance Open (T36) and Waste Management Open (T25) and he’s played well at Riviera. A GPP filler who has a decent shot at making the cut and finishing Top 25.

Sung Kang (DK $6,700, FD $8,100) – Kang is one of many Korean golfers who seem to play well at Riviera, which has similar turf to the native grasses on their home courses on the other side of the world. He’s got plenty of upsides this week.

More value golfers for GPPs: Bud Cauley, Brian Harman, Patrick Rodgers, Sam Burns, Steve Stricker, Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Brian Stuard

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PGA

The Range: The Genesis Open

Patrick Waters
written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in California as the players face off at the Genesis Open.

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The Basics

Course: Riviera CC ( Pacific Palisades, CA )
Par: 71
Length: 7,322 yards
Fairways: Kikuyu
Greens: Poa
Past five winners: ’19 JB. Holmes (-14), ’18 B. Watson (-12), ’17 D. Johnson (-17), ’16 B. Watson (-15), ’15 J. Hahn (-6)
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.

Course Breakdown

Since the 1999 season, the Genesis Open is played at the Riveria Country club. Over the last ten years, the average winning score is -12 with a high of -17 and a low of -6. Twelve of the last twenty rounds have rated as a difficult score. Let’s look at some of the top golfers over the last 24 rounds and how they’ve fared with difficult scoring.

The fairways at the Genesis Open are more narrow than tour average, with this in mind we’ll want to focus on golfers who are sharp ball-strikers (like most weeks). Below are the top ten golfers over the last 24 rounds.

Strokes gained putting tends to be a high correlation to success here. Golfers who can perform well on Poa greens could gain an edge on this tough course. The illustration here shows the top golfers over the last 24 rounds.

Here are the golfers that have performed well under all three conditions listed above.

Player Fit – Back End

At the Genesis Open, most of the toughest holes and a few of the easiest holes are the Par 4 450 – 500 yards. Looking for golfers that excel in this range will be a nice spot to start. Between the Par 3s and the longer holes on the Riviera CC, the long irons will play a huge role. Look for golfers that play well between 175 – 200 yards in proximity.

With the smaller greens, GIR should play a big part. For those that miss the greens in regulation, they’ll need to be able to scramble to save par. As usual, Opportunity Gained will be part of the model but unlike most weeks I’m leaning more bogey avoidance over birdie or better.

Here are the combined stats from up above which will represent the golfers below when they’re evenly weighted.

Final Recap for the Genesis Open

Looking for players that have played the course before should be a priority. I’m not saying new timers cannot do well, but according to Datagolf the Riviera CC plays only behind Augusta for course history relevance.

Course Setup
Difficult Scoring
Hard to hit fairways
Poa Greens

Player Efficiencies
Par 4 scoring: 450 – 500 yards
The proximity between 175 – 200 yards
GIR
Scrambling
Opportunity Gained
Bogey Avoidance

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the Genesis Open. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Stat Source: Fantasy National

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