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Brandon Woodruff

My preferred DFS MLB Pitching selections for Tuesday.

Jack Flaherty vs Pittsburgh Pirates

DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $7,700

Flaherty has been up and down this season, but he has been really solid at home. With Coors Field in the slate I really want to find a mid-priced guy I love and that’s Flaherty. Against right handed bats he has a .216 BAA and at home he has a 10.10 K/9. I’m never really scared of the Pirates and the Cardinals opening up as a -180 favorite gives me a little better DFS MLB Pitching boost.

Jordan Yamamoto vs San Diego Padres

DraftKings $9,500, FanDuel $8,700

Yamamoto has been dominant to start his career and I don’t see anything changing here. We get a huge park boost to back him up as well in DFS MLB Pitching. At home tYamamoto has a 1.64 ERA and a .139 BAA. The Padres are always a hit or miss team for me and I’m planning on them missing in this one. 

Walker Buehler @ Philadelphia Phillies 

DraftKings $10,200, FanDuel $10,000

The Phillies have been nothing close to the team that we have expected this season. After a rough April, Walker Buehler has been completely dominant. Other than one rough outing in a Coors, like everyone, he has only had two games under 20 points in his last 10. With a 10.54 K/9 to righties I expect him to slice through this lineup and he is my top DFS MLB Pitching arm on the slate.

Brandon Woodruff vs Atlanta Braves

DraftKings $8,700, FanDuel $9,600

This is my DFS MLB Pitching GPP play of the night. Woodruff has the potential to strike out seven or more and the Braves do strike out a good amount. I know it’s in Miller Park so that’s going to give a big boost to Freddie Freeman as a left handed bat. Woodruff has nine or more strikeouts in a game four times this season and I’m hoping tonight is number five.

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DFS Pitching Prime Pick: Luis Castillo vs. Milwaukee Brewers 

DraftKings $10,000, FanDuel $9,400

The Brewers have been really slumping lately and Castillo has been dominant all season. At home he holds a 1.92 ERA and a .160 BAA. Not to mention his 9.43 K/9. Castillo has been one of the biggest DFS Pitching surprises this year and I expect him to keep rolling in this one.

Brandon Woodruff @ Cincinnati Reds

DraftKings $9,400, FanDuel $9,800

Woodruff has the DFS Pitching upside to hang with the best in the league. He can go out and strike out a ton in any matchup. The Reds aren’t all that scary and I can easily see him strolling through this lineup very easily. Woodruff has been pretty solid against right handed bats (.221 BAA) so I’m not really worried about the majority of this lineup.

Matt Boyd @ Chicago White Sox

DraftKings $10,600, FanDuel $10,100

This is my pay up high tournament DFS Pitching upside play of the day. Boyd has been a little shaky of late, but he figured it out last time he pitched. Boyd always has that very high strikeout upside that we search for in tournaments, especially on the road. He turns it up a notch to get strikeouts as he holds a 12.90 K/9 on the road. I love him here against a White Sox team that strikes out a ton.

Hyun-Jin Ryu vs San Diego Padres

DraftKings $11,100, FanDuel $10,800

By some point you just have to realize the obvious in DFS Pitching and that is Ryu is dominant this season. At home this season he holds a 0.94 ERA and a 9.05 K/9. He has been baseball’s best arm this year and against the Padres, who are always hit or miss, I have a strong feelings they’re going to miss in this one.

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For those not familiar, my name is Dan Wehr and I am a new author here at WinDailyDFS. This article will provide a game by game DFS breakdown for the six game main slate on Draftkings and FanDuel, and I also provide some preferred stacks.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

Over/Under: 12.5

Implied Run TotalLAD: 6.83 Runs

Implied Run Total COL: 5.67 Runs

Weather Concerns: N/A

Los Angeles DodgersClayton Kershaw (LHP) takes the mound in Colorado tonight. He is sporting a 2.85 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 3.76 SIERA on the season. Kershaw has identical splits, carrying a .282 wOBA, .269 OBP, and .278 BABIP to both sides. Dodgers batters are slashing .338 wOBA, .209 ISO, and .298 BABIP over the last two weeks. They are hitting close to their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays Max Muncy $4400 FD|$5400 DK. Cody Bellinger $5100 FD|$5800 DK. Matt Beaty $2800 FD| $3700 DK. Alex Verdugo $3800 FD |$4700 DK.

Colorado RockiesJon Gray (RHP) takes the mound tonight at home. He carries a 4.18 ERA, 4.20 FIP, and 4.19 SIERA on the year. Gray has identical splits, carrying a .338 wOBA, .339 OBP, and .439 SLG to both sides. Rockies batters are slashing .368 wOBA, .187 ISO, and .497 SLG over the last two weeks. They are hitting close to their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays: Ian Desmond $2900 FD | $4600 DK. Charlie Blackmon $4400 FD | $5500 DK. Nolan Arenado $4100 FD | $5000 DK. Greg Hampson $2700 FD | $3200 DK.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

Over/Under: 9.5

Implied Run TotalPIT: 3.80 Runs

Implied Run TotalMIL: 5.70 Runs

Weather Concerns: Dome

Pittsburgh PiratesJordan Lyles (RHP) on the mound tonight in Milwaukee. Lyles is sporting a 3.64 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and 4.74 SIERA on the season. He has true splits, carrying a .367 wOBA, .500 SLG, and .367 OBP to left handed batters. He has been particularly bad on the road against lefties. Pirates batters are slashing to a respectable .376 wOBA, .226 ISO, and .532 SLG against right handed batters over the last few weeks.

Preferred DFS PlaysCorey Dickerson $3100 FD | $4300 DK. Josh Bell $4500 FD | $5300 DK. Bryan Reynolds $3300 FD | $4500 DK. Colin Moran $2500 FD | $3900 DK. Elias Diaz $2500 FD | $3300 DK.

Milwaukee BrewersBrandon Woodruff (RHP) on the mound for the Brewers tonight. He has a 4.01 ERA, 3.07 FIP, and 3.53 SIERA on the season. Woodruff has true splits, carrying a .335 wOBA, .441 SLG, and .341 OBP against left handed batters this season. Brewers batters are currently slashing to a .315 wOBA, .170 ISO, and have a .402 SLG. They are hitting slightly below their season average over the last two weeks. Jordan Lyles is awful on the road vs. lefties and Milwaukee bats have been a bit pedestrian lately. I think the Brewers crack things open tonight and score some runs.

Preferred DFS Plays: Mike Moustakas $3700 FD | $4700 DK. Yasmani Grandal $3300 FD | $4400 DK. Christian Yelich $4500 FD | $5700 DK. Eric Thames $2700 FD | $4200 DK

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

Over/Under: 9.5

Implied Run TotalSEA: 3.20 Runs

Implied Run TotalHOU: 6.30 Runs

Weather Concerns: Dome

Seattle Mariners Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) on the mound in Houston. He carries a 5.11 ERA, 5.55 FIP, and 5.10 SIERA on the season. Kikuchi has fairly similar splits and struggles quite a bit on the road. Kikuchi carries a .361 wOBA, .505 SLG, and .354 OBP against right handed batters. Everyone is waiting for the Astros to really break out again and I think this is a good spot for them to do so. Seattle batters are slashing to a .333 wOBA, .173 ISO, and .441 SLG over the last few weeks. They are hitting close to their season average.

Preferred DFS PlaysDaniel Vogelbach $3700 FD | $4000 DK. J.P. Crawford $3000 FD | $4200 DK.

Houston Astros Justin Verlander (RHP) on the mound tonight at home. He carries a 2.67 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and 3.17 SIERA on the season. Verlander has a flyball rate of 46%, hard contact rate of 39%, and 1.65 HR/9. He has identical splits, carrying a .232 wOBA, .343 SLG, and 1.75 BABIP. Houston batters are hitting well above their season averages recently with a .448 wOBA, .337 ISO, and .647 SLG.

Preferred DFS Plays: Alex Bregman $4200 FD | $5100 DK. Jose Altuve $4000 | $4100 DK. Tyler White $2200 FD | $3200 DK. Jake Marisnick $2200 FD | $4000 DK. George Springer $4400 FD | $5400 DK.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 7.5

Implied Run Total – ARI: 4.20

Implied Run Total – SFG: 3.30

Weather Concerns: N/A

Arizona DiamondbacksZack Greinke (RHP) takes the mound in San Francisco tonight. He is sporting a 2.91 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and 3.96 SIERA on the season. Greinke has identical splits, allowing a .260 wOBA, .249 OBP, and .252 BABIP to both sides. Greinke gets a ballpark boost and has the clear advantage against a weak SFG offense. Arizona batters are slashing to a .272 wOBA, .127 ISO, and .349 SLG over the last few weeks. They are hitting well below their season averages.

Preferred DFS PlaysKetel Marte $4100 FD | $5200 DK. Eduardo Escobar $4200 FD | $4800 DK. Christian Walker $3000 FD | $4000 DK.

San Francisco GiantsDrew Pomeranz (LHP) is on the mound at home. He carries a 7.09 ERA, 6.01 FIP, and 4.68 SIERA on the year. Pomeranz has true splits as right handed batters are slashing to a .412 wOBA, .594 SLG, and .396 OBP against him this season. San Francisco batters are slashing to a .307 wOBA, .178 ISO, and .418 SLG over the last few weeks. They are hitting above their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays – N/A

Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

Over/Under: 9.5

Implied Run TotalOAK: 4.40 Runs

Implied Run TotalLAA: 5.10 Runs

Weather Concerns: N/A

Oakland AthleticsBrett Anderson (LHP) is on the mound in Anaheim tonight. Anderson has a 4.26 ERA, 5.15 FIP, and 5.44 SIERA on the season. He is a ground ball pitcher with a hefty 52% GB rate. Anderson carries a .295 wOBA .383 SLG, and .304 OBP against him on the road. Oakland batters are slashing to a .371 wOBA, .273 ISO, and .580 SLG to left handed pitching over the last few weeks.

Preferred DFS PlaysKhris Davis $3400 FD | $3600 DK. Marcus Semien $3400 FD | $4100 DK. Ramon Laureano $3300 FD | $3900 DK. Mark Canha $2800 FD | $3600 DK. Matt Chapman $3700 FD | $4200 DK.

Los Angeles AngelsTyler Skaggs (LHP) is on the mound for the Angels this evening. He carries a 4.30 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and 4.40 SIERA on the year. Skaggs tends to be hot and cold and the last time he faced the A’s he ended up getting hit around a bit. The A’s lineup is full of right handed power and Skaggs is carrying a .310 wOBA, .407 SLG, and 318 OBP to them on the year. Angels batters are slashing .to a 266 wOBA, .073 ISO, and .305 SLG over the last two weeks, They are hitting well below their season averages over the last two weeks.

Preferred DFS Plays: Mike Trout $4700 FD | $5600 DK. Shohei Ohtani $4100 FD | $5100 DK. Albert Pujols $3000 FD | $3900 DK. Kole Calhoun $3200 FD | $4300 DK.

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 8

Implied Run TotalSTL: 3.71 Runs

Implied Run Total SDP: 4.29 Runs

Weather Concerns: N/A

St. Louis CardinalsDakota Hudson (RHP) takes the mound in San Diego. He has a 3.36 ERA, 4.67 FIP, and 4.72 SIERA on the season. Hudson struggles mightily against left handed batters, carrying a 386 wOBA, .532 SLG, and .396 OBP so far this season. He has a massive ground ball rate of 62% and an extremely low fly ball rate of 17%. Cardinals batters are slashing .283 wOBA, .123 wOBA, and 74 WRC+. They have struggled all season with right handed pitching.

Preferred DFS PlaysDakota Hudson $8400 FD | $6900 DK.

San Diego Padres Chris Paddack (RHP) is on the mound at home this evening. He has a 3.18 ERA, 3.99 FIP, and 3.87 SIERA this season. Paddack has a 45% hard contact rate and 40% fly ball rate. He has identical splits, carrying a .261 wOBA, .370 SLG, and .257 OBP against both sides this season. The Cardinals have struggled a ton against righties as of late and Paddack certainly has the arm talent to get the QS and win against this porous Cardinals lineup. The only concern I have is Paddack is not an innings eater, averaging four or five IP per game. Padres batters are slashing to a .358 wOBA, .214 ISO, and .493 SLG against right handed pitching over the last two weeks. They are hitting well above their season averages.

Preferred DFS Plays – Chris Paddack $8100 FD | $8300 DK. Fernando Tatis Jr. $4000 FD | $5500 DK. Manny Machado $3900 FD | $4900 DK. Franmil Reyes $2800 FD | $4100 DK.

Dwehrj08’s Favorite DFS Plays

Top Pitchers

  1. Chris Paddack (Not an innings eater so tread carefully)
  2. Dakota Hudson
  3. Zack Greinke

Top Stacks

  1. Houston Astros
  2. Milwaukee Brewers
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks
  4. For good measure I will most definitely have exposure to Coors, as should you. This game isn’t my top priority but the implied run total here just simply cannot be ignored.

Home Run Call of Day: Matt Olson (OAK)

The Winning Edge
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Saturdays are weird with the slates split up as they are, but hey, we have Justin Verlander pitching! I personally like to play the all-day slate on FanDuel but I know other people like to play other ways. So I will be using pitchers and Monkey Knife Fight plays for all 15 games. Do not forget, we have the game in London between the Red Sox and the Yankees that starts at 1:10 pm eastern.

Upper-Tier Arms: Verlander on Top

Justin Verlander, Mariners at Astros ($11,500 FD, $11,500 DK): The Astros ace has thrown at least seven innings in eight of his past nine starts so we know he is going deep into games. He has given up a lot of homers (21) this year, but on the positive side 17 have been solo shots. The ace pitcher seem to limit the HRs they give up to solo shots for the most part. Verlander gave up three homers in back-to-back starts before allowing only one on Sunday in New York to the powerful Yankees. Luckily, since the Mariners traded away Edwin Encarncion, they are still striking out at a good clip (23.3%, 10th most). At the same time, their wOBA has dropped to .336, 14th in the league. Verlander should have his way at his home park, which is a better pitcher’s park (13th in normalized runs scored) than people think. His price probably makes him a GPP-only option.

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Brandon Woodruff, Pirates at Brewers ($9,100 FD, $8,100 DK): Wow look at this price on DK as your second option next to Verlander. The only thing that really worries me here is that the Pirates just do not strike out a lot. They are dead last in striking out at 14.4% over the past two weeks. However, Woodruff has been the Brewers’ best starter, their ace recently, with all three of his double digit strikeout performances within his last six starts, including a career-best 12 in his last start against the Reds. Something has to give here! He is certainly in consideration as my cash game pitcher.

Middle-Tier Arms

Zach Plesac, Indians at Orioles ($8,800 FD, $8,600 DK): Boy that was quite the beating the Orioles put on the Indians last night! I would not expect a repeat tonight and the biggest reason for that is Plesac. Rapidly becoming the Indians ace, Plesac will look to win his third consecutive start on Saturday. The 24-year-old right-hander struggled in his last start Sunday against the Tigers, but found his groove to pitch seven quality innings, allowing only one run (a solo HR) on five hits. He just might be my cash game pitcher and opens up the Verlander alternatives section if you cannot bring yourself to spend up or need an SP2.

Dakota Hudson, Padres at Cardinals ($8,400 FD, $6,900 DK): At that DK price, you lock him in as your SP2 next to Verlander and move on. On FD, where striking out batters is so important, he is likely more of a GPP-only play. Hudson has emerged as one of the league’s best ground-ball pitchers. He pitched well in his last start. allowing only one run on five hits in a victory against the Angels. In that start last Saturday, he pitched a career-high seven innings. He’s now 4-0 in his last seven appearances with a 2.22 ERA. He has the potential to be the Cardinals’ ace.

Bargain-Basement Arm

Brendan McKay, Rangers at Rays ($5,700 FD, $7,600 DK): It is hard to imagine myself paying that much for this highly-touted two-way prospect on DK, where he will not be my SP2 to pair with Verlander. But on FD, with that savings, I can get almost every Coors bat I want! McKay is a fascinating player to watch, a potential ace pitcher in the making. He becomes the second two-way player (Ohtani) in as many years to make his debut. The 23-year-old lefty is the Rays’ top pitching prospect and their No. 2 prospect overall. In MLB, he is listed as the No. 23 overall prospect. Manager Kevin Cash sounds excited to see McKay pitch: “We’re all pumped.”

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day 

Our MKF plays have been absolutely on-fire recently. But we will not be going with the Verlander theme here.

Joc Pederson, Alex Verdugo, Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 HRs

Double your money if these guys combine for two or more HRs. With the way these games are going at Coors, you have to like the chances of a couple HRs between these three powerful lefties.

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This is a very funky slate. While I don’t necessarily love this crop of pitchers, we have some interesting arms in great circumstances. That’s all we can ask for as DFS players and it’s a lesson that needs to be learned. Sometimes, we have to step outside of our comfort zone sand use players we normally wouldn’t consider because you simply can’t have biases in this industry. As always, you need to check in with Mark Paquette before submitting lineups to see if we have any weather issues. 

Cash Game Pitcher of the Day 

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. BAL 

DK ($12,200)   FD ($11,200) 

I hate to say he is only the best cash-game play of the day because this is undoubtedly the best play on the board no matter what. The simple fact is, you can’t match this guy’s ability to whiff batters. That’s evident by his league-leading 37.4 percent K rate, which is backed up by his 35 percent K rate from last season. That’s simply elite production and it’s clear that his 1.04 WHIP and elite K rate means that he has some positive regression headed his way from his 3.94 ERA. Facing the Orioles is simply the icing on the cake, with Baltimore ranked 24th in runs scored, 25th in OPS and last in xwOBA. That’s why Cole enters this matchup as a –355 favorite.  

Top-Tier Arms 

Mike Soroka, ATL at MIA 

DK ($11,600)   FD ($10,800) 

It feels weird to recommend a rookie above $10,000 but he’s earned every bit of that lofty price tag. In fact, Soroka is pitching to a 1.41 ERA and 0.91 WHIP this season while striking out 51 batters across 57 innings of action. That is elite for anyone and it’s clear that he’s the frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year with this stellar season. The reason we like him here is because he gets to face Miami in Marlins Park. Not only is that arguably the best pitcher’s park in the Majors, the Marlins also sit at the bottom in nearly every offensive category. So far this season, Miami ranks 28th in wOBA, 29th in runs scored and 30th in both OPS and xwOBA. Vegas agrees with our assessment, as they have Soroka as a –180 favorite in a game with a total of 8, which means the Marlins are projected for about 3.3 runs. 

Clayton Kershaw, LAD at SF 

DK ($11,200)   FD ($10,700) 

Kershaw is always worth considering any time he takes the mound, especially against the Giants. I mean, we’re talking about an offense who just allowed Jason Vargas to throw a complete game shutout against them. C’Mon man, that’s embarrassing! That’s really no surprise when you consider the fact that San Francisco ranks 28th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and 28th in wOBA. That says a lot about this offense and it’s really no surprise hitting in a pitcher’s park like Oracle Park. Kershaw is back to his All-Star ways too, posting a 3.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this season while posting a 55:9 K:BB rate. Kershaw completely owns the Giants too, posting a 13-4 record in San Fran while providing a 1.54 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, striking out 156 batters across 164 innings. 

Middle-Tier Arms 

Andrew Heaney, LAA vs. SEA 

DK ($9,200)   FD ($9,400) 

Heaney is generally overlooked in terms of great pitchers but he’s truly established himself as one of the best southpaws in the league. In his first two starts, Heaney has allowed only eight baserunners across 11 innings while striking out 18 batters. That’s simply elite production, as his 4.09 ERA is not indicative of just how good he’s been. His 2.68 xFIP this season and 3.68 xFIP from last season really show how special he’s been and it’s hard to argue with a 25 percent K rate in that span. Facing Seattle right now is quite the treat for any pitcher too, with the Mariners ranking 28th in both runs scored and OBP in May while sitting 27th in K rate for the year. 

Zach Eflin, PHI vs. CIN 

DK ($8,700)   FD ($8,300) 

Eflin has quietly had a breakout year for the Phillies, as his 3.02 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are actually the best numbers in the Philly rotation. While his 51 Ks are lacking a bit, it’s hard to argue with a guy who is producing like this. The reason we really like Eflin today is because he gets to face the Reds. So far this season, Cincinnati ranks 24th in wOBA, 26th in xwOBA and 23rd in OPS. That’s why we have Eflin projected to enter this matchup as a –180 favorite. With all that in mind, Eflin is coming off the IL for this start and its unclear exactly how long he’ll last but he is worth the risk.

Brandon Woodruff, MIL vs. PIT 

DK ($7,800)   FD ($8,600) 

Woodruff is probably my favorite value play of the day, as he’s been the Brewers’ best pitcher since the end of April. Aside from a dud against Pittsburgh in his most recent game, Woodruff was pitching to a 1.42 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over his previous six starts while striking out 43 batters across 38 innings of action. That elite strikeout potential has been there all season long, with Woodruff recording at least five Ks in all 11 starts en route to a 28.3 percent K rate. While he did struggle against the Pirates in his last start, this is a matchup we love. In fact, Pittsburgh currently ranks 23rd in both runs scored and xwOBA while ranking 25th in xSLG. Vegas loves Woodruff too, as they have him as a –250 favorite in this game.  

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day

While I did miss on our last MKF pick because of a blowup by Aaron Nola, I’m still 7-3 over my last 10 selections. There actually wasn’t a whole lot I like on MKF today but there is one pick that I do really prefer.

Gerrit Cole over 8.5 strikeouts

Honestly, I would almost never pick a pitcher to pick up more than eight Ks but I think Cole is a guarantee for double-digit strikeouts. His 37 percent K rate is a huge reason why, but facing a bad offense like this only adds to his K upside.

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This is a very funky slate. While I don’t necessarily love this crop of pitchers, we have some interesting arms in great circumstances. That’s all we can ask for as DFS players and it’s a lesson that needs to be learned. Sometimes, we have to step outside of our comfort zone sand use players we normally wouldn’t consider because you simply can’t have biases in this industry. As always, you need to check in with Mark Paquette before submitting lineups to see if we have any weather issues. 

Cash Game Pitcher of the Day 

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. BAL 

DK ($12,200)   FD ($11,200) 

I hate to say he is only the best cash-game play of the day because this is undoubtedly the best play on the board no matter what. The simple fact is, you can’t match this guy’s ability to whiff batters. That’s evident by his league-leading 37.4 percent K rate, which is backed up by his 35 percent K rate from last season. That’s simply elite production and it’s clear that his 1.04 WHIP and elite K rate means that he has some positive regression headed his way from his 3.94 ERA. Facing the Orioles is simply the icing on the cake, with Baltimore ranked 24th in runs scored, 25th in OPS and last in xwOBA. That’s why Cole enters this matchup as a –355 favorite.  

Top-Tier Arms 

Mike Soroka, ATL at MIA 

DK ($11,600)   FD ($10,800) 

It feels weird to recommend a rookie above $10,000 but he’s earned every bit of that lofty price tag. In fact, Soroka is pitching to a 1.41 ERA and 0.91 WHIP this season while striking out 51 batters across 57 innings of action. That is elite for anyone and it’s clear that he’s the frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year with this stellar season. The reason we like him here is because he gets to face Miami in Marlins Park. Not only is that arguably the best pitcher’s park in the Majors, the Marlins also sit at the bottom in nearly every offensive category. So far this season, Miami ranks 28th in wOBA, 29th in runs scored and 30th in both OPS and xwOBA. Vegas agrees with our assessment, as they have Soroka as a –180 favorite in a game with a total of 8, which means the Marlins are projected for about 3.3 runs. 

Clayton Kershaw, LAD at SF 

DK ($11,200)   FD ($10,700) 

Kershaw is always worth considering any time he takes the mound, especially against the Giants. I mean, we’re talking about an offense who just allowed Jason Vargas to throw a complete game shutout against them. C’Mon man, that’s embarrassing! That’s really no surprise when you consider the fact that San Francisco ranks 28th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and 28th in wOBA. That says a lot about this offense and it’s really no surprise hitting in a pitcher’s park like Oracle Park. Kershaw is back to his All-Star ways too, posting a 3.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this season while posting a 55:9 K:BB rate. Kershaw completely owns the Giants too, posting a 13-4 record in San Fran while providing a 1.54 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, striking out 156 batters across 164 innings. 

Middle-Tier Arms 

Andrew Heaney, LAA vs. SEA 

DK ($9,200)   FD ($9,400) 

Heaney is generally overlooked in terms of great pitchers but he’s truly established himself as one of the best southpaws in the league. In his first two starts, Heaney has allowed only eight baserunners across 11 innings while striking out 18 batters. That’s simply elite production, as his 4.09 ERA is not indicative of just how good he’s been. His 2.68 xFIP this season and 3.68 xFIP from last season really show how special he’s been and it’s hard to argue with a 25 percent K rate in that span. Facing Seattle right now is quite the treat for any pitcher too, with the Mariners ranking 28th in both runs scored and OBP in May while sitting 27th in K rate for the year. 

Zach Eflin, PHI vs. CIN 

DK ($8,700)   FD ($8,300) 

Eflin has quietly had a breakout year for the Phillies, as his 3.02 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are actually the best numbers in the Philly rotation. While his 51 Ks are lacking a bit, it’s hard to argue with a guy who is producing like this. The reason we really like Eflin today is because he gets to face the Reds. So far this season, Cincinnati ranks 24th in wOBA, 26th in xwOBA and 23rd in OPS. That’s why we have Eflin projected to enter this matchup as a –180 favorite. With all that in mind, Eflin is coming off the IL for this start and its unclear exactly how long he’ll last but he is worth the risk.

Brandon Woodruff, MIL vs. PIT 

DK ($7,800)   FD ($8,600) 

Woodruff is probably my favorite value play of the day, as he’s been the Brewers’ best pitcher since the end of April. Aside from a dud against Pittsburgh in his most recent game, Woodruff was pitching to a 1.42 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over his previous six starts while striking out 43 batters across 38 innings of action. That elite strikeout potential has been there all season long, with Woodruff recording at least five Ks in all 11 starts en route to a 28.3 percent K rate. While he did struggle against the Pirates in his last start, this is a matchup we love. In fact, Pittsburgh currently ranks 23rd in both runs scored and xwOBA while ranking 25th in xSLG. Vegas loves Woodruff too, as they have him as a –250 favorite in this game.  

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day

While I did miss on our last MKF pick because of a blowup by Aaron Nola, I’m still 7-3 over my last 10 selections. There actually wasn’t a whole lot I like on MKF today but there is one pick that I do really prefer.

Gerrit Cole over 8.5 strikeouts

Honestly, I would almost never pick a pitcher to pick up more than eight Ks but I think Cole is a guarantee for double-digit strikeouts. His 37 percent K rate is a huge reason why, but facing a bad offense like this only adds to his K upside.

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Early Slate Pitching;

Zach Wheeler vs. San Francisco Giants

DraftKings – $10,500, FanDuel – $10,200

Wheeler has been a mystery and-a-half this season. In one start Wheeler is
dominant and then in the next outing he blows up. So far this season Wheeler
has been major reverse splits and I don’t mind that against the Giants. With
the better bats of Panik and Belt being left-handed, that helps neutralize some
of the danger. Against left-handed hitters this season Wheeler has a .217 BAA
and a 11.74 K/9. We know the upside Wheeler has, and he has shown it this
season with massive fantasy games. The Giants have strikeouts up and down this
lineup and I expect nothing less than an eight spot from Wheeler. He’s my stud
across all platforms.

Brandon Woodruff vs. Miami Marlins

DraftKings – $8,900, FanDuel – N/A

The Marlins are somehow hitting out of their minds these last two days. They
dropped 16 runs on Tuesday and eight on Wednesday. That was insane for the high
school squad they have. They get the high upside wild card in Woodruff in this
one and I think they will return to form. Woodruff is way better against right
handed bats, to a tune of a .213 BAA and a 10.21 K/9. The Marlins lean right-handed
heavy and will have much trouble getting across the plate.

Punt Option; 

Miles Mikolas vs Cincinnati Reds 

DraftKings – $6,700, FanDuel – $7,800

There isn’t much to say here either than the pay down options are dreadful
and Mikolas is the best choice. He is much better against right-handed bats. The
only “dangerous lefty” I’m scared of is Joey Votto, and he hasn’t been too
scary this season.

Main Slate;

Patrick Corbin @ San Diego Padres

DraftKings – $10,300, FanDuel – $10,900

I don’t know what happened with Corbin in his last start, but I’m gonna give
him a pass. Corbin has been kind of up-and-down this season, but against this
Padres team that can strike out with the best of them I’ll take the chance. I
know Corbin has been horrible on the road, but he gets an amazing park. His
strikeout numbers have been better on the road (10.47 K/9) and I don’t see any
reason why he can’t touch that number in this matchup.

Joey Lucchesi vs. Washington Nationals

DraftKings – $9,000, FanDuel – $8,200

With the lack of quality options available, I’m gonna take a shot with
Lucchesi. I really like what he’s been doing in his last couple starts. He has
gone at least six innings with five or more strikeouts in each of his last
three starts and has only given up 10 total hits. The Nationals can strike out
a ton and go ghost in weird spots, and in this pitcher’s ballpark I don’t see
any reason why that can’t happen here.

 

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Early Slate Pitching;

Zach Wheeler vs. San Francisco Giants

DraftKings – $10,500, FanDuel – $10,200

Wheeler has been a mystery and-a-half this season. In one start Wheeler is
dominant and then in the next outing he blows up. So far this season Wheeler
has been major reverse splits and I don’t mind that against the Giants. With
the better bats of Panik and Belt being left-handed, that helps neutralize some
of the danger. Against left-handed hitters this season Wheeler has a .217 BAA
and a 11.74 K/9. We know the upside Wheeler has, and he has shown it this
season with massive fantasy games. The Giants have strikeouts up and down this
lineup and I expect nothing less than an eight spot from Wheeler. He’s my stud
across all platforms.

Brandon Woodruff vs. Miami Marlins

DraftKings – $8,900, FanDuel – N/A

The Marlins are somehow hitting out of their minds these last two days. They
dropped 16 runs on Tuesday and eight on Wednesday. That was insane for the high
school squad they have. They get the high upside wild card in Woodruff in this
one and I think they will return to form. Woodruff is way better against right
handed bats, to a tune of a .213 BAA and a 10.21 K/9. The Marlins lean right-handed
heavy and will have much trouble getting across the plate.

Punt Option; 

Miles Mikolas vs Cincinnati Reds 

DraftKings – $6,700, FanDuel – $7,800

There isn’t much to say here either than the pay down options are dreadful
and Mikolas is the best choice. He is much better against right-handed bats. The
only “dangerous lefty” I’m scared of is Joey Votto, and he hasn’t been too
scary this season.

Main Slate;

Patrick Corbin @ San Diego Padres

DraftKings – $10,300, FanDuel – $10,900

I don’t know what happened with Corbin in his last start, but I’m gonna give
him a pass. Corbin has been kind of up-and-down this season, but against this
Padres team that can strike out with the best of them I’ll take the chance. I
know Corbin has been horrible on the road, but he gets an amazing park. His
strikeout numbers have been better on the road (10.47 K/9) and I don’t see any
reason why he can’t touch that number in this matchup.

Joey Lucchesi vs. Washington Nationals

DraftKings – $9,000, FanDuel – $8,200

With the lack of quality options available, I’m gonna take a shot with
Lucchesi. I really like what he’s been doing in his last couple starts. He has
gone at least six innings with five or more strikeouts in each of his last
three starts and has only given up 10 total hits. The Nationals can strike out
a ton and go ghost in weird spots, and in this pitcher’s ballpark I don’t see
any reason why that can’t happen here.

 

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Breakout Players in Store for Big DFS Season’s in 2019

The DFS season is upon us and there are a number of MLB players poised for huge breakout campaigns that you should not sleep on early-on. Hit them early and often as the 2019 gets underway.

Hitters

David Dahl

David Dahl appears poised to finally see full-time duties in the Rockies outfield and is set to break out in a big way. The 24-year old connected for 16 homers in just 77 games last season and hit .286 with 12 homers versus right-handed pitching. Dahl is an offensive workhorse you should be able to consistently latch your cart to for the entire DFS season in 2019. The slugger has 40-homer potential and hit 13 of his 16 homers in the friendly confines of Coors Field last season. Target Dahl at home versus righties and reap the DFS rewards in 2019.

Garrett Hampson

The 24-year old has an opportunity to do some damage on the base paths in 2019. Hampson has stolen seven bags thus far in spring training action and impressed in his 24-game cup of coffee in the majors last season. The infielder hit .311 with 36 thefts before his MLB promotion last year in the minors. Hampson and Ryan McMahon may be jockeying for playing time to start the season but keep an eye on Hampson early-on, as he is the better defensive option and more all-round player at second base. Hampson could be an affordable DFS option in May.

Byron Buxton

If spring training is any indication, it appears that Byron Buxton may finally put it all together. Buxton is slashing .438/.472/.906 with 4 round trippers and 3 stolen bases in 13 Grapefruit League action games this spring. Buxton showed signs of life with the stick last season albeit in the minors but he hit .365 in August with the Twins Triple-A affiliate. He may be a DFS steal out of the gate if he can carry over his spring into the regular season. He possesses a blend of speed and power that could bode well in 2019.

Pitchers

Brandon Woodruff

Brandon Woodruff asserted himself as a dominant force out of the Brewers bullpen last season including 20 strikeouts in 12.1 innings of work during the postseason. Woodruff will begin the season in the Brewers rotation and could easily average 11k’s per 9 innings. The 26-year old sports a 1.84 ERA with 20 whiffs in 14.2 innings on the bump this spring. Don’t sleep on Woodruff and cash in before the rest of the DFS world catches on. Woodruff is a legit talent, folks. Cash in on the Brew Crew.

Matt Strahm

Matt Strahm came out of nowhere last season in his first season with the Padres. The hurler posted a 2.05 earned run average in 41 games including 5 starts in 2018 with a 10.1 SO/9 rate. Strahm will be in the Padres rotation pitching in 2019 where he will look to use Petco Park to his advantage. The 27-year old also limited right-handed hitters to a meager .149 batting average last season. Target Strahm at home versus right-handed hitting lineups and prepare for success.

Nick Pivetta

When talking about big arms and potential breakout candidates, look no further than pitcher Nick Pivetta. The 26-year old is primed for a 200+ strikeout season on a much-improved Phillies team.  Last season Pivetta boasted a 4.77 ERA but fanned 188 in 164 innings of work, the right-hander also accumulated 7 or more strikeouts in 14 of his 32 starts in 2018.

Honorable Mentions

Chris Paddack, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Pete Alonso, Aaron Sanchez, Willians Astudillo

 

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