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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 17 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.Let’s get to the game!Week 17 NFL DFS MVP cand...

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The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 14 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article. Week ...

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Tonight’s Thursday night match up brings us to Minnesota with a matchup between a Steelers (6-5-1) team riding high off the momentum of a last second victory vs. the Ravens and a Vikings (5-7) team that may get their star running back tonight.  The season has not gone to plans for either team as the Steelers sit in third behind the Ravens and Bengals while the Vikings are riding a 2 game losing streak and are 2 games under .500.  I’m going to be highlighting some of my favorite Monkey Knife Fight plays for the night.

More or Less – 3.6x Payout

Kirk Cousins – 255.5 Passing Yards – More

Kirk Cousins should easily get to this target tonight.  Over the last 4 weeks he’s hit this number 3 times and those 3 times he hit the number pretty convincingly.  Even though one of Cousins’ top pass catchers will be out for the game, he should be able to do enough with Justin Jefferson and the likes of Osborn and Westbrook  to get over the 255 yard passing mark. 

The Steelers can be a tough against QB’s but last week they showed they can still give up some passing yards as Lamar Jackson had over 250 yards passing.  If Jackson can get to this secondary, I have no doubt that Cousins can too.  I’m going with the More side of this one.

Ben Roethlisberger – 245.5 Passing Yards – More

Big Ben should get to his target as well.  Jared Goff torched this secondary for nearly 300 yards and 3 touchdowns last week.  That’s really all you need to know to get an idea where my head is at with this prop.  While Big Ben is no longer the QB he used to be, he can still sling it downfield and is still on pace to have his 13thseason with at least 3,000 yards passing. 

If we look at his most recent games he’s hit this target in 3 out of the last 5 games.  In the two games that he didn’t, one was against a solid Ravens defense and the other was in a game against the Bears where he still had a 111 QB rating.  Steelers are in must win mode and in order to do that they’ll need Big Ben and Diontae Johnson to connect early and often. Like Cousins, I’m going with the More side of this one too. 

Rapid Fire – 3x Payout

Kirk Cousins vs. Ben Roethlisberger (+10.5 yards)

I’ve highlighted in the More or Less section that both QB’s should hit their number tonight.  In what should be a close game tonight I’m going to go with Big Ben here.  The slight edge I’m giving to Roethlisberger is due to the Vikings secondary giving up a bit more yardage of late to QB’s and he’s also getting the extra 10.5 yards tonight.  Those extra yards are going to be key to getting him over the hump and beating out Cousins.  Big Ben for me here.     

Justin Jefferson vs. Diontae Johnson (+15.5 yards)

I love Justin Jefferson, but not having his counterpart in Thielen tonight is really going to hurt him.  The Steelers should be able to throw some extra coverage on Jefferson tonight because the duo of Osborn and Westbrook are nowhere near in the same class of Thielen. 

With Diontae Johnson we’re getting someone who’s on a solid stretch of football right now.  Over his last 6 games he’s had at least 80 yards receiving 5 times and has hit 100 yards in 2 of his last 3.  The one game he didn’t get to 100 he still ended up with 95 yards.  The extra 15.5 yards he’s getting tonight will be key to him outperforming Jefferson.  Diontae Johnson for the win tonight. 

Good luck tonight and hope you cash!

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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 9 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.Let’s get to the game!Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candida...

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With the start of the NFL Playoffs, Collector’s Corner will take a look at what trading cards could see a bump based on their impending gridiron success. We’ll start with the AFC.

Note: Collector’s Corner will use my DFS-derived Cash/GPP/Punt terminology (introduced in part 2 of my NBA preview piece) to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.

First Round Bye

Kansas City Chiefs

CashPatrick Mahomes rookie trading cards remain the most sought-after and expensive slabs on the market. There’s still some room for growth, and the Chiefs appear poised for another Super Bowl run. If you can’t afford the 2017 rookies, there are plenty of 2018-2020 products that still command high prices and are worth grabbing. And the second-year PSA 9s won’t break your bankroll.

GPPTyreek Hill and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are probably the two players with the most growth potential on the Chiefs, as a 2016 Panini Prizm Silver (in a PSA 10) sold for just $375 in November, and the injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (and acquisition of Le’Veon Bell) slowed the hype train on the Chiefs rookie RB. I just bought a gorgeous SGC 10 of Hill’s Prizm Silver rookie for $275 – I like the SGC slabs better anyway and this could easily be a $450-500 trading card if he shines again in the playoffs.

PuntTravis Kelce is a great player, but tight end trading cards don’t typically command the prices that QBs, RBs and even WRS do. Excluding his beautiful 2013 National Treasures autos and RPAs, Kelce’s rookies are affordable and prime for more growth as collectors realize what a generational talent he is at the position and how he’s a near lock for HOF enshrinement in Canton.

Wild Card games

The Best: Bills, Ravens, Titans

Buffalo Bills

CashJosh Allen is the guy to collect right now, period. I’m buying up Prizms and Donruss Rated Rookies – as well as any and all parallels when I can – and I’ve already seen 50% growth in a die-cut 2018 Obsidian Cutting Edge rookie patch card (pictured below) I got for under $50 a couple of weeks ago. His 2018 Prizm trading cards are selling for outrageous prices, but I think as long as the Bills aren’t done, neither is that profit potential. I really like his Prizm Red, White and Blue rookie card, which can be found in retail cello packs from that year. 2018 products are still a solid buy, as we’ve got Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Saquon Barkley in that class as well, and the prices dropped a bit with the Barkley injury and while Jackson struggled through some November chill.

GPPStefon Diggs and Devin Singletary have a few things going against them for maximum value. Diggs rookies are in Minnesota Vikings gear, and Singletary splits the backfield with Zack Moss – who’s a solid rookie buy that hasn’t seen much of a jump at all. I might pivot to cheaper low-numbered 2020 Diggs parallels instead of shelling out big bucks for his Vikings trading cards.

PuntGabriel Davis could have a solid career if he cuts down on the stupid penalties and continues to improve. There’s a lot to like about him and his cards are very affordable – but the Bills have lots of skill position players who could overshadow him.

Some of the Gabriel Davis cards I’ve collected this past year. He’s a physically gifted receiver in a good spot for production in Buffalo.

Baltimore Ravens

CashLamar Jackson falls just behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and ahead of Baker Mayfield (more on him later). He’s almost a GPP buy because of the questions about his long-term viability, but I think there’s still plenty of growth potential. If the Ravens can pull off a couple of playoff wins and he plays well – we could see an immediate jump back to the where the prices were in 2019.

GPPJ.K. Dobbins is probably the best buy on the Ravens right now, and his cards remain cheap because he shares backfield duties with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram II. That won’t last, so get yourself one of his rookies.

Punt Patrick Queen and Devin Duvernay are cheap and while defensive players don’t fare all that well, standout Ravens ILBs have a legacy all their own. Duvernay has a lot of talent but needs some development before his cards do anything at all.

Tennessee Titans

CashDerrick Henry is a beast, and there’s a live eBay auction right now for a PSA 10 Gem Mint example of his 2016 Prizm Silver rookie. It’ll be interesting to see how high it goes, since the recent sold examples encompass a wide range from $450 to well over $600.

GPPRyan Tannehill and A.J. Brown trading cards have some juice, but they’d have a lot more if the Titans somehow went to the Super Bowl. Hey they came close last year!

Punt – I might invest in a few Darrynton Evans and Corey Davis (2017) rookie cards, but they are definitely punts that would need a few planets to align before they saw a discernible jump.

I’ve had this card since I pulled the redemption card in a 2017 Panini Phoenix hobby box that yielded terrible autos — but one awesome Rookie Rising parallel of Patrick Mahomes #d/49 that I sold raw (like a chump) a couple of years ago. If I only knew how high his cards would go in the ensuing two years…

The Rest: Colts, Browns, Steelers

Indianapolis Colts

Cash – I highly recommend buying up the Colts in team breaks for their talented rookies – led by Jonathan Taylor. Taylor’s trading cards are on the rise but still affordable – and there’s lots of excellent products to choose from (2020 Mosaic, Prizm Draft, Prizm and Phoenix are my favorites).

GPP Michael Pittman, Jr. has a great frame and a bright future in the NFL. We’ve seen flashes of what he’s capable of, but he’s lost a bit in the exceptional 2020 WR class.

Punt Jacob Eason base cards are dirt cheap – because his future is uncertain compared to the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and even QB-in-waiting Jordan Love. Other than being buried on the depth chart for the rest of 2020, the biggest knock on his future is his mobility. If he has elite upside, it’s more Peyton Manning than Patrick Mahomes, since he doesn’t operate well in the muddy pockets that characterize modern NFL football.

Cleveland Browns

Cash Baker Mayfield cards are selling for about one-quarter of what Josh Allen cards are commanding at the moment, which is pretty insane when you consider that both QBs have unlimited potential. Raw 2018 Prizm base rookies can be had for $15-20, and they’re hard to find in a PSA 10. If you see one of those for under $1K, buy it.

GPP Nick Chubb is a stud, and he’s part of that solid 2018 draft class. If I were a Browns fan, I’d be buying up all his stuff. I might just do it anyway.

This 1/1 NFL Shield card of Chubb is for sale on eBay.

Punt – I have a really sweet 2020 Harrison Bryant Prizm Draft Picks auto (numbered 6/25) for sale on eBay, and I get lowball offers for it all the time. I might just pull it off my listings if he shines in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cash – Some Ben Roethlisberger trading cards are quite expensive but base rookies still have some growth potential, especially if he can make another run at the Lombardi trophy. Sadly, I don’t think this team has the running game to get it done.

GPP JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are all decent buys, but their long-term value depends on the future of the QB position.

Punt Anthony McFarland, Jr. is my buy-low guy, and I don’t think he’s been given a fair shot at touches with the other Steelers RBs struggling so much this season. Maybe he’ll break out in 2021.

Stay tuned for Part 2 — the NFC!

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 15 NFL DFS contests!

Week 15 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Ben Roethlisberger (DK $17,700, FD $16,000)

Pivot: JuJu Smith-Schuster (DK $15,000, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #1: Ryan Finley (DK $12,000, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #2: Steelers DST (DK only: $10,800)

FD/DK Value: Tee Higgins (DK $6,800 FLEX, FD $10,000)

DK Punts: Jaylen Samuels (DK $1,200), Samaje Perine ($2,100)

There’s plenty of uncertainty looming as we approach the MNF contest this week, although it’s not necessarily a question of competition; the Steelers should win this game handily as the Bengals haven’t really been able to stop anyone and they’re rolling out an objectively bad QB in Ryan Finley.

The biggest question is who exactly will be logging most of the backfield touches for the Steelers, who may simply rely on their usual smattering of quick-attack passing plays and the occasional heave to their assortment of capable receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, James Washington and TE Eric Ebron) in the red zone. Johnson has been dealing with the dropsies but is still the highest priced WR in this contest. On the Cincy side, I’m still interested in slot man Tyler Boyd for his PPR upside and rookie revelation Tee Higgins (58-778-5 this season) for his red zone upside.

Ben Roethlisberger is the obvious chalk at CPT, though we can get a few key pieces of the Steelers passing game if we roster the right cheap RB – be it James Conner (questionable with a quad injury), the largely ineffective and boring Benny Snell, Jr. or passing down back Jaylen Samuels. Conner sat out weeks 12 and 13 with COVID, ran for just 18 yards on 10 carries in Week 14, and earlier this week looked like a longshot to even suit up for Week 15. He didn’t practice Thursday but got in limited sessions Friday and Saturday.

If Conner doesn’t play tonight, I’ll consider Snell, but I’m partial to Samuels and rookie RB Anthony McFarland, Jr., — who could be inactive again (like Week 14) if Conner does end up playing. If we get word that McFarland (just $200 as a flex on DK) will be in the mix for carries, I’ll be locking him into about half my GPP lineups. Somebody on the Steelers is going to shred this awful Bengals run defense, but the injury to Conner and the varied nebulous roles that define each of the other RBs really complicate the matter. WRs are still the priority for PIT, but the price points for the RBs are a prime pathway to a big payday.

The Bengals have their own issues at RB, with Giovani Bernard, Trayveon Williams and Samaje Perine likely splitting the workload until a “hot hand” emerges. Pass protection and ball protection – and not talent – might be the largest factors for the Bengals backfield in this matchup. Bernard’s fumble in Week 14 earned him a spot on the bench, but he’s still the most versatile back they have with Joe Mixon sidelined on IR indefinitely. I’ll have one or two Bengals total in my builds (Higgins/Seibert or Boyd/Bernard), and probably never three — though it makes sense to build at least one Finley/Boyd or Finley/Higgins lineup.

I probably don’t have to tell you to consider the Steelers DST and fade the Bengals DST, but it’s worth mentioning as Pittsburgh should easily confound Finley and force some turnovers. Bengals kicker Austin Seibert will get the start, and Chris Boswell should be healthy enough to play for Pittsburgh. Neither kicker is a priority.

Week 15 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.

DO: Play Big Ben. The Steelers WRs are too good and the RBs don’t do enough for this team.

DON’T: Forget about the Steelers defense. They’ve lost a few key players but it’s a deep team with plenty of playmakers.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Ben Roethlisberger
  2. JuJu Smith-Schuster
  3. Chase Claypool
  4. Tyler Boyd
  5. Diontae Johnson
  6. Steelers DST
  7. Tee Higgins
  8. Eric Ebron
  9. James Conner
  10. Ryan Finley
  11. Giovani Bernard
  12. Jaylen Samuels (small bump if Conner sits)
  13. Benny Snell, Jr. (huge bump if Conner sits)
  14. James Washington
  15. Trayveon Williams
  16. Samaje Perine
  17. A.J. Green
  18. Drew Sample
  19. Anthony McFarland Jr. (if active)
  20. Austin Seibert
  21. Chris Boswell
  22. Bengals DST
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It’s Week 3 of DFS QB Picks. Let’s all pray it’s less brutal than Week 2.

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemien were all KO’ed with various forms of injuries, with Roethlisberger done for the season, Brees is out for up to six weeks, Darnold is down until Week Five and Siemien is likely to be in dry dock for a hot minute.

I think Florida Evans put it best.

As usual, we’ll focus on the main slate of Sunday afternoon games with a brief nod to Sunday night’s Rams-Browns and Monday night’s Bears-Redskins contests.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,400) 

Dak Prescott is a legit QB1. There. Another thing I never suspect I’d type in 2019. Prescott has 447 completed air yards and six touchdown passes along with 81 yards rushing. Someone wants a new contract. He’s only made two bad throws in his first 62 attempts, so it’s all the more reason to run with Prescott against the most QB-friendly defense in Fantasy football.

Miami traded Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers on Monday, basically further declaring their secondary an open city for Prescott to march through. The Dolphins were 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers with Fitzpatrick, so I will buy into the unlikely and play Prescott in Cash Game formats, with the added bonus of at least 40 rushing yards and the prospect of a ground touchdown.

2) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. NO

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600) 

Wilson is averaging a solid 20.4 Fantasy points per game. He’ll move beyond solid against the Saints, who are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans is also 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers, a scary reality considering that 80% of Wilson’s 496 passing yards have come after the catch.

I think we’ve seen the peak of Wilson’s rushing. Don’t get it twisted: he can still hurt opponents on the ground, but the maturity as a passer makes his rushing attempts more precise than just a sheer desire to do so. That said, I’ll predict Wilson gives you a rushing TD on top of a big passing afternoon.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. HOU

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500) 

On a bad day, Rivers still threw for 293 yards. He’s not Gardner Minshew and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will throw more fear into the Texans secondary than the Jaguars’ middling receiving corps did. Rivers has never recorded a 300-yard game against the Texans, but he’s averaged 3.5 TD passes against them. He’s averaged 10.83 adjusted passing yards per attempt versus the Texans.

Rivers is thriving off oyards after completion, amassing 479 of his 626 yards via that route. Much of that is credited to Allen and running back Austin Ekeler, who have combined for 56,5% of Rivers’ 46 completions. Creating havoc after the catch will be a must since Rivers will have to account for where DE J.J. Watt lines up.

Rivers also tends to get more accurate as the game goes on, completing 65% of pass attempts 21-30 and 80% beyond 30 attempts. This game should be a slugfest, so I’d bet on Rivers going well north of 30 attempts.

4) Deshaun Watson, HOU at LAC

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200) 

So the Jaguars remembered how to play defense. Watson burned a host of Cash Gamers last week, but I’m counting on a rebound on Sunday. With rushing scores in each of his first two games, Watson’s running only enhances his value. Although he’s getting just 4.9 air yards per completion thus far, Watson has added nearly two yards to his yards after the catch per completion from last season..

Watson has six big plays in his first two games, with his receivers (DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V and Kenny Stills) each with a pair. The Chargers are middle of the pack when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, but their 190 yards allowed will be tested — and passed — by Watson and the Texans on Sunday.

5) Jameis Winston, TB at NYG

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300) 

The Giants are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, giving up 329.5 yards and 2.5 TD passes per contest. Winston will have a healthier Mike Evans this week, and the progression from Week 1 to Week 2 is going to carry into Week 3.

If the Buccaneers want an effective Winston, they should keep him in single RB looks. His passer rating is 88.5 when in single sets compared to a 63.6 when lined up in shotgun. It’s a small sample, yes, yet again keep in mind that Week 3 will essentially feel like Week 1 for Evans. Winston’s under the radar right now, which is why the value and upside are a perfect Cash Game pairing.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Matthew Stafford, DET at PHI

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900) 

Philly is giving up 350 yards and three touchdown passes per game. There’s nothing to suggest anyone in that secondary is going to slow down Kenny Golladay. The Eagles have allowed eight completions of better than 20 yards and 368 yards after the catch. This screams Field Day for Stafford.

2) Tom Brady, NE vs. NYJ

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800) 

In eight of his last 10 meetings against the Jets, including the past six, Brady has thrown at least two touchdown passes. He averaged better than 10 yards per attempt in the two games against them last season. Brady’s come out of the gate with an average of 13.8 yards per completion, his highest since 2011. The yardage totals, however (he has just one 300-yard game versus the Jets since 2014), is the main reason I can’t suggest him for Cash Games.

3) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. DET

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700) 

Alshon Jeffery (calf) is unlikely. DeSean Jackson (groin) is out, so ownership may be low. Wentz is magic after halftime, completing 35 of 48 passes for 385 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a sharp contrast from going 18 of 34 for 159 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the first 30 minutes of play.

4) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. ATL

DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800) 

Yes, T.Y. Hilton is getting his targets, but what I like about Brissett is how he’s utilizing TEs Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. The duo have caught 9 of 12 targets, with Ebron catching one of Brissett’s five touchdown passes. The Colts are averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which strongly suggests Brissett will have opportunities for downfield shots against the Falcons that he didn’t have in the first two games against the Chargers and Titans. He’s perhaps the best value play of the week.

5) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. BAL

DK ($7,600), FD ($9,200) 

The Ravens are fifth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. They did give up 349 yards to Kyler Murray on Sunday, but kept him out of the end zone. I don’t suspect they’ll do the same against Mahomes, who threw for 278 of his 443 yards against Oakland in the second quarter. He looked somewhat ordinary outside of that insane 15-minute run. Mahomes is averaging 10.7 yards per completion and no matter what, he’s not going to remain on a 6,568-yard, 56-TD pass pace. There’s better value passers with better matchups in Week 3, so do know there’s some Buyer Beware that comes with Mahomes this week.

6) Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. LAR

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500) 

Good Number: 112 Adjusted Yards per Atttempt+ means he’ll continue to stretch defenses now that Odell Beckham Jr. is in tune.

Bad Number: The Rams are third in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks.

7) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DEN

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900) 

Good Number: Rodgers, who’s averaged 7.8 yards per attempt in his career, is not going to sit on his current average of 6.4 YPA much longer.

Bad Number: The Broncos are eighth in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed just 189.5 passing yards per game.

8) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. CAR

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,200) 

Good Number: Only one interception in a league-high 94 attempts, plus he’s averaging 12.2 yards per completion.

Bad Number: He’s had 11 poor throws and just one completion from them. The Panthers are 0-2, but their defense is still good enough to make Murray look more like a rookie than he has thus far.

9) Lamar Jackson, BAL at KC

DK ($7,000), FD ($8,500) 

Good Number: He’s averaging 14.5 yards per completion. That’s not all Hollywood Brown, either.

Bad Number: It’s nitpicking with the start that he’s had, so the 175 air yards counts as a “negative.”

10) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,200) 

Good Number: He’s getting 8.58 net yards per attempt with an under the radar receiving corps.

Bad Number: Wow, that 3.3 depth yards per target is something we’re going to have to discuss, Jimmy…

Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Derek Carr, OAK at MIN

DK ($4,900), FD ($6,700) 

The Vikings are 21st in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Weren’t they supposed to be elite? Most will have Carr off their charts, but I’ll play the exception.

2) Matt Ryan, ATL at IND

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,800) 

Five interceptions lead the league. Even with the big Week 2 outings from Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Ryan is still averaging a mere 5.6 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.

3) Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,800) 

The numbers are putrid in his first two starts, but nothing says “improvement is coming” like facing the Redskins and their 31st ranked defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

4) Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. OAK

DK ($5,100), FD ($7,200) 

As ugly a Week 2 that he had, keep in mind Cousins leads the league with a 14.9 yards per completion. Among the DFS Week 3 QB Picks, Cousins is near the top when it comes to “either/or.”

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT at SF

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,800) 

If James Connor is limited, Rudolph will be north — well north — of 30 pass attempts. Look for Vance McDonald and James Washington to be the big winners in the new QB regime in Pittsburgh. The Niners are seventh in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers, which is why I’m not as optimistic about Rudolph as I am with any of the other DFS Week 3 QB Picks.

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I’ll be a licensed physical therapist in 8 months therefore, so nothing makes me shudder more than a week like the one we just had. As we move to Week Three, I’ll provide the post-apocalyptic injury report.

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Last week really rocked our world, didn’t it? Not only did we lose Drew Brees for six to eight weeks, we also lost Ben Roethlisberger for the season.

That’s only the beginning.

There are eight other player injuries with DFS implications, so let’s jump in.

Damien Williams

Williams’ injury is nebulous at this point. The team announced he has a “contusion” at his knee, but haven’t clarified the degree. If this is a true contusion of the periosteal bone (“bone bruise”) swelling and pain are going to be a factor. Additionally, expect him to miss two or three games with a true contusion. Conversely, if the team is using “contusion” as a broad term for a minor issue, Williams will be fine this week, with minimal setbacks.

Update: Williams has been ruled OUT.

LeSean McCoy

Shady had an MRI this week on his ankle after suffering an injury late in the fourth quarter on Sunday. The imaging report is “clear”, which rules out a high ankle injury, but tells us nothing about the pain he’s experiencing. Nonetheless, McCoy has a chance to play this Sunday, but it will depend on his practice participation and progress with the rehab team. All things considered, I don’t expect limitations for McCoy if he’s active.

Update: McCoy practiced on Thursday and we expect him to play Sunday as his teammate , Damien Williams, has already been ruled out. However, Shady has clearly been limited by pain this week, I would think very hard before putting him into lineups. Check out windailysports.com for other options.

James Conner

Conner’s situation is vague, but we know that his teammates and Conner himself say he’s fine. Conversely, a player’s knee being forced inward, like Conner’s, warrants concern for the MCL. However, the worst case scenario is that Conner is mildly uncomfortable and needs a brace for Week Three.

Update: A full participant at Friday’s practice, Conner could be a contrarian play this week if you still believe in this offense.

Devin Singletary

Singletary ran in a touchdown on Sunday, but not long after disappeared with a hamstring strain. Although the team has not given a grade of the strain (I, II, or III), research shows that even a grade I strains can cause one to three missed games. Furthermore, if Singletary tries to gut through a grade I or II, he can make matters worse. As a result, I’m avoiding him in DFS this week despite his optimistic “day-to-day” status.

Update: It’s now official, Singletary has been ruled OUT.

DeSean Jackson

Jackson is ruled out for week three and four. Watch this core muscle injury as it is closely related to “sports hernias.”

Tre’Quan Smith

I tweeted a picture of Tre’Quan’s injury here. We haven’t heard back from the Saints, but it’s not looking good for him in Week Three if you’re considering him as a flier.

David Njoku

Njoku took a nasty hit and landed on his shoulder and head. As a result, he did not finish the game and is now in the concussion protocol. Do not assume that he will be ready by Sunday, as concussions are fluid in nature. In fact, expect over-correction by teams moving forward after the protocol itself is now in question. Watch his status as the week progresses.

Update: Njoku also suffered a fractured wrist and will be out for at least the next month.

That will do it for the post-apocalyptic injury report of the week. The expectation is that these injuries will be clearer by Friday, then we can begin to dial in your lineups for the week.

Mid-week Additions

Cam Newton: Newton is styling a walking boot on his preseason injured foot. This comes as a surprise considering that Newton seemingly kicked that injury to the curb after not being listed on the injury report until this week. Check back with us later this week after we get more information on exactly what is hampering Newton.

Update: Newton has been ruled OUT.

Marlon Mack

Mack has not practiced as of Thursday. He is dealing with a calf injury which can be extremely debilitating for a running back. Look at Jordan Wilkins as a cheap option instead.

Update: Mack practiced on Friday which gives us some optimism. However, we can’t ignore then fact that Jordan Wilkins took first team reps all week. Look to pivot away from the Indi running backs if you want to stack this game.

Josh Jacobs

A picture from Jacobs’ phone was leaked with a caption of “I’ve lost 10lbs this week” apparently from an illness. That’s never a good sign. Throw in that Jacobs is also suffering from a groin injury leads to me fading him on the injury front.

Jimmy Graham

According to Ryan Wood, Graham did not practice today with a groin injury. These type of injuries can nag and linger for pass catchers who require a significant amount of lower extremity agility and change of direction. As of Thursday, I’m fading Graham this week.

Update: There’s some confusion about Graham’s groin situation as the Packers actually promoted a tight end from the practice on the same day that Graham missed practice. Add in the fact that even minor groin injuries can be debilitating for pass catchers and I’m ignoring Matt LaFleur’s positive positive practice report. You have better options at tight end.

Courtland Sutton

Sutton is out from practice with rib soreness, which can be tricky. The only limiting factor with rib injuries are a player’s ability to play through pain. In other words, his range of outcomes are too wide for me to plug him into any lineups this week.

Update: Sutton is not on the injury report headed into Sunday, which theoretically means he’s got no pain. Proceed with minimal caution.

Sterling Shepard

Shepard has been cleared for Sunday and should be good to go.

Alshon Jeffery

If it seems like Jeffery’s injury has been unclear, that’s because it is. There have been conflicting reports about Jeffery’s availability on Sunday, but the Eagles are “optimistic” about him. Even if he comes back, I’m looking elsewhere.

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Now that we’ve gotten our first taste of the 2019 season, it’s here we begin to make sense of what we saw. The Week 2 DFS QB Picks will focus mostly on the main slate of Sunday games, but the Thursday, Sunday and Monday nighters will get love.

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Tom Brady, NE at MIA

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,800) 

Oh, stop. You knew this was coming. Even if Antonio Brown didn’t play, Brady was going to be a lock here. The Dolphins allowed a combined 55.08 Fantasy points to Ravens QBs on Sunday, and Brady’s track record versus Miami is hilariously tilted in his favor.

In his last six matchups against the Dolphins, Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns five times, including five in the two games he faced them in 2018, where he finished with a combined 632 passing yards. Brady has tossed for at least 227 yards in each of his last 10 games against Miami, finishing with at least 274 yards six times. At this point, you don’t need Next Generation stats to be convinced what to do here.

2) Deshaun Watson HOU vs. JAX

DK ($6,600), FD ($8,500) 

It’s safe to say the words “Houston Texans” and “effective run game” won’t be said in the same sentence in 2019. That means Watson will make regular appearances in this section, so long as he remains upright. Despite being sacked six times on Monday, Watson still put up 31 Fantasy points, placing him behind only Lamar Jackson (33.6) and Dak Prescott (33.4). The woeful Texans’ O-line assures that Watson will finish with 6-8 rushing TDs this season, again so long as he remains upright.

Jacksonville was 27th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers in Week 1 as Patrick Mahomes tagged them for 378 yards and three touchdowns without Tyreek Hill most of the afternoon. The Jaguars were 26th in receivers points allowed and will see plenty of DeAndre Hopkins, who averages 11.1 targets per game against them. Although Watson has a modest 79.7 passer rating in three previous games against the Jags, Sunday shapes up to be a personal best for Watson against an overrated unit.

3) Patrick Mahomes, KC at OAK

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,000) 

He’s playing, so no worries about his sprained ankle. If he can flirt with 400 yards gimping along, it’s all good. Mahomes averaged 283 yards and three touchdowns in his two games against the Raiders last season, and I feel he’ll be just fine without Hill in the lineup.

My only concern with Mahomes is that once Hill exited the game, Sammy Watkins was the only wide receiver he targeted. While that makes Watkins a high-end WR1, a mild sense of uneasiness permeates. However, the bet is that A) the Chiefs will likely sign a veteran receiver this week and 2) whoever is opposite Hill will be grossly underrated. Oakland is a solid 11th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers after Week 1, but Joe Flacco isn’t Patrick Mahomes.

4) Drew Brees, NO at LAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000) 

Part of me feels like I have underrated Brees here. His track record against the Rams is 269 yards and two touchdowns per game. In his last four regular season tilts against the Rams, he has averaged 323.7 yards and 2.5 TDs per game.

Brees will do a good job of diversifying the passing game. Of his attempts on Monday night, 22 went to wide receivers, 11 went to running backs and four went to tight ends (quarterback Taysom Hill had two targets). The big play element is already there, as Brees connected on four completions of at least 20 yards. New Orleans had a combined seven big plays and will present a more dangerous offense than the Rams — who allowed just one big play against the Panthers — saw in Week 1.

5) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,700) 

Wentz plays on Sunday night, so if you’re playing a full slate, keep in mind that he accounted for 219 air yards against the Redskins, accounting for 69.9% of his 313 passing yards. He was 21st in that category in 2018, but he didn’t have DeSean Jackson then, did he…

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Russell Wilson, SEA at PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600) 

The one number to keep in mind with Wilson is that his receivers averaged 6.9 yards after the catch in Week 1. That’s two yards better than last year’s average. The Steelers allowed Pats wideouts to amass 273 receiving yards on just 14 completions (19.5 yards per catch) on Sunday night. I’d strongly consider Wilson as a Week 2 DFS QB Pick, but he falls just short of Cash Game status.

2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. ARI

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,200) 

Let’s not proclaim him the Second Coming just yet, but Jackson sure as hell disproved a lot of his detractors on Sunday. The Cardinals will provide stiffer competition, but Jackson’s 10.3 air yards per pass completion and the zeroes in the categories of bad throws and danger passes are all encouraging signs. Even better is that he didn’t run much, which means that if Jackson is becoming a consistent passer, he will have a couple of games where he’ll combine his running skills into one hell of a Fantasy day.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC at DET

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,700) 

The potential long-term impact of Mike Williams’ injury is currently in question and I don’t suspect Austin Ekeler will rack up 39.4 Fantasy points again, but we know Rivers will throw and do so effectively, as he completed 73.5% of his passes in Week 1. Rivers only had 147 air yards on Sunday, a number that translates into trouble for a Lions secondary that allowed 233 receiving yards to the Cardinals.

4) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,000) 

Forget all we saw on Thursday night. You’ll be better for it. Rodgers won’t finish 23rd among all quarterbacks again. The Vikings did give up 304 yards to Matt Ryan and will have to contend with a more productive Packers passing game that averaged 10.3 yards per target. That tells me Rodgers will be more aggressive on Sunday and will be somewhat undervalued considering he’s facing a solid Minnesota defense.

5) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. SEA

DK ($7,600), FD ($8,500) 

Speaking of rebound candidates, Roethlisberger will be under the radar and does bring a good track record against the Seahawks, averaging 25 completions and 320 yards in three previous matchups. If you’re looking for sunshine in his pitch black outing against the Pats, his receivers did not drop a pass, nor did he record a bad throw. Seattle made Andy Dalton look like a must-start passer in Week 1, and it’s almost a given that Big Ben is a far superior Fantasy performer at home. He’s worth the second look

6) Dak Prescott, DAL at WAS

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700) 

Good Number: Prescott averaged 16.2 yards per completion and had seven completions of better than 20 yards.

Bad Number: Raise your hand if you think Ezekiel Elliott will have 14 touches. I’ll wait.

7) Jared Goff, LAR vs. NO

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,600) 

Good Number: The Saints defense is still the Saints defense, as only the Dolphins and Giants allowed more Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Bad Number: A 59% completion rate and 8.1 yards per completion makes me have Super Bowl flashbacks.

8) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. PHI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900) 

Good Number: Case Keenum produced 380 yards against the Eagles secondary. Imagine what Ryan could do if the Falcons give him time to throw.

Bad Number: Ryan has never had a season in which he averaged less than 10.4 yards per completion, so the 9.2 YPC against the Vikings is a bit of of a concern.

9) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. LAC

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000) 

Good Number: We would all take 14.3 yards per completion, which is what Stafford had against the Cardinals.

Bad Number: Don’t count on the Lions having 77 plays from scrimmage.

10) Derek Carr, OAK vs. KC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,600) 

Good Number: Carr averaged big plays at an 18.1% completion rate, a solid number considering he only attempted 26 passes.

Bad Number: Oakland’s receiver depth is concerning. Outside of Tyrell Williams, Carr targeted wideouts just seven times. That’s a number that has to improve, especially if the Chiefs are doubling Williams up.

Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Case Keenum, WAS vs. DAL

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900) 

He’s going to be a strong value play, especially if the Redskins have to play catchup. Keenum did have a nice split in targets with a 23-21 distribution to wide receivers and running backs/tight ends.

2) Andy Dalton, CIN vs. SF

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900) 

San Francisco was the top Fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. The Tyler Boyd-Richard Sherman matchup will be a huge indicator on how well Dalton will look.

3) Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. IND

DK ($5,000), FD ($7,400) 

Averaged 12.4 passing yards after completion, but who in 2019 is going to trust a quarterback that completes 50% of his attempts?

4) Cam Newton, CAR vs. TB

DK ($16,500), FD ($15,000) 

The better of the two plays if you’re going Showdown on Thursday night. Should find the end zone, but his 5.7 yards per target doesn’t look good, especially when investing in Panthers wide receivers.

5) Baker Mayfield, CLE at NYJ

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,500) 

Prove it. He will be an interesting watch among the Week 2 DFS QB Picks.

6) Jacoby Brissett, IND at TEN

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,000) 

The accuracy (77.7%) is there, but the 4.2 yards after catch per completion is going to need some work.

7) Gardner Minshew, JAX at HOU

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,400) 

On price alone, Minshew should be ranked higher. The Jags get a Texans pass defense that got nothing from J.J. Watt on Monday night en route to finishing 29th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers.

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Russell Wilson Featured Image via Mike Morris

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Week 1 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

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I want to start off the NFL DFS article by saying you must have the absolute nuts to win the top prize up top on large field GPPs. There is no room for mistakes with so many entires in these contests, if you think you are going to win it all by playing a combo of the top eight guys in the player pool, you are not. If a combo of a bunch of guys you have heard of before is indeed the best scoring lineup, you will most likely tie for first. If that sounds good to you, then go for it. It will be profitable if you nail it, but for me I like to be a little different on these slates. I will be making multiple teams and taking long shots on a few cheap guys. 

As far as MVP goes, I tend to want to get someone in the mid-range for a few reasons. Lower ownership and someone besides the top studs are going to have to produce. I have played a lot of these NFL DFS contests (Including the Showdown Slate Championship on DraftKings last year) and I can tell you they are very difficult to predict. 

Leaving cash on the table in these NFL DFS contests is fine too. This makes your lineup even more unique and lower owned because a lot of amateurs will be pulling their hair out to use their entire salary. 

That all being said, I have looked at every possible player that can get on the field and listed my expansive NFL DFS player pool below. Here are my quick thoughts on each player.

The Player Pool

Tom Brady: It’s Tom Brady. He is the GOAT. He will get his.

Ben Roethlisberger: Has legit number one receiver in JuJu and great secondary options. Can also dump it down to Conner.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: In love with is talent. Steelers top WR. The problem is Bill Bellichick has been prepping for him all offseason.

James Conner: Had a breakout season last year. Can run and can catch. Safe.

Sony Michel: The Pats best back, but in NFL DFS that Patriots backs may be the hardest single thing to predict. He has the talent to take every snap on another team, but that’s not his current situation.

Julian Edelman: Brady’s favorite target. He might just explode with the news of Antonio Brown coming to town next week to take some of his targets. Like him a lot this week.

James White: The Pats pass catching back. I hate to be redundant but New England backs are impossible to predict. If you are doing multiple lineups pick a different Patriots back in each lineup, because one is going to get a lot of work.

Josh Gordon: Is Josh Gordon still in his prime? I doubt it, but he does have Tom Brady throwing to him and he is an athletic freak. We all remember Josh Gordon going absolutely nuts, but that was a long time ago. He is the WR2.

Stephen Gostkowski: Patriots Kicker. Like the price.

Vance McDonald: Steelers breakout TE candidate

James Washington: Pitt WR3 just behind Donte Moncrief. Still developing chemistry with the offense. Boom or Bust.

Chris Boswell: Pitt Kicker. Steelers like to go for two point conversion a little too often for me.

Donte Moncrief: Love him. Steelers WR2.

Damien Harris: Pats RB3. Probably not. Worth a dart, I guess, if you are making A LOT of lineups. I will not have him.

Jaylen Samuels: Steelers backup RB. A little banged up. Don’t love it.

Demaryius Thomas: Questionable tag.

Phillip Dorsett: Long shot Pats WR. Had some chemistry with Brady last year. Like him a lot if Thomas misses.

Rex Burkhead: Same as Damien Harris. Hard to predict with Bill Belichick will do. I am going to fade.

Matt LaCosse: Pats TE with ankle injury. Questionable.

Ryan Izzo: Pats only TE option is LaCosse misses. Cheap.

The NFL DFS Picks

MVP: Donte Moncrief: ($8,000 FD; $6,200 DK) When you play the Patriots they do their best to take out your top option (JuJu) which opens up room for the secondary options. Moncrief has been getting a lot of hype in the offseason and is now ready to take on the roll in the Steelers offense that JuJu had, and produced with, before AB left town. You can definitely pay down at MVP on showdown slates.

NFL DFS Safe Flex Options: (listed in order of preference)

  1. James Conner: ($14,000 FD; $10,800 DK) He is just safe. He is going to get work on the ground and through the air just like last year. I’ll have him on both sites but he will score more on DK because of the PPR structure.
  2. Julian Edelman ($13,000 FD; $9,600 DK) Patriots Top WR. Target monster. Reliable. Nothing not to like. Lock him in and get weird somewhere else
  3. Patriots RBs: Pick Sony or White, not both. I lean Sony here but White is cheaper and you might need the extra cash if you have Conner and Edelman.
  4. Vance McDonald ($9,800 FD; $6,000 DK): Breakout candidate at Tight End that will just have to beat one man or get open in the zone. McDonald has a nice season last year with a couple breakout performance. He is the main guy now and not as risky as you might think.
  5. Tom Brady ($15,000 FD; $10,800 DK): He is going to get his points. He is just the most expensive. If it is a shootout that means other people are scoring too. If it is low scoring rostering the highest priced player will hurt you. If you have the salary room, put him in.
  6. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($14,500; $11,000 DK) I think the Patriots blanket him, but that doesn’t mean he won’t come down with 5 or 6 catches with as much as he is getting targeted. He will be the top redone threat as well.

NFL DFS Cheap

  1. Ryan Izzo ($5,000 FD; $200 DK (WoW) Very real chance he is the only healthy TE on the Patriots. If LaCosse is out, put Izzo in. Watch out for the news leading up to the game
  2. Stephen Gostkowski ($10,000 FD; $3,400 DK (much better on DK): If the Patriots aren’t converting touchdowns, in comes Gostkowski.
  3. Phillip Dorsett ($6,500 FD; $3,800 DK) If Thomas is out or limited, Dorsett is a phenomenal punt.

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