What is going on everyone? After three long months where we have not only been told to stay in our homes but to do so without sports MLB is back!!! I hope you all have played the last couple of days because the overlay has been the stuff of dreams (almost 50% in some contests on FanDuel). If not, no worries. I am going to breakdown this giant 13 game main contest and give you some players and teams to attack to end your day with a little extra spending cash. Everything in this article is geared towards FanDuel specific pricing so keep that in mind while reading this breakdown.
Pitching:
Cash
Mike Clevinger, Indians, 10.4K:
Ladies and gentlemen, after seeing just how bad the Royals bats are last night when Beiber struck out 14 in six innings on just four hits there is no way I’m starting my cash game pitchers with anyone but Clevinger. In three starts against KC last year he only gave up two earned in 18 and two-thirds innings with 24 strikeouts and KC somehow looks worse offensively to start the year.
Luis Castillo, Reds, 9.8K:
The above mentioned Clevinger and Castillo are the only two pitchers I am rolling out today for cash. It makes no sense for me to use anyone else on FanDuel due to how they put such a points emphasis on K’s compared to DK. A potential Cy Young winner against the lowly Tigers for under 10k is not something FanDuel should have allowed but if they are offering, I will take it all day.
Max Fried, Braves, 7.5K
I’ll give you one more breakdown……..I don’t want to and I don’t advise any other pitcher for cash but If you absolutely can’t afford either, (change your bats) you can roll with Max Fried. He is another example of pricing not being where it should be. The Met’s are loaded with left-handed batters and they are going to have an incredibly difficult time trying to identify his off-speed pitches. He is young so nerves might be an issue, but he is the future Braves Ace no doubt about it.
GPP:
Zack Wheeler, Phillies, 9k:
Wheeler is in a prime spot against the Marlins and I see a scenario where he goes under-owned due to people paying up $800 for Castillo or down for someone like Matz or Freid. He moved teams but not divisions so there is no lack of familiarity against NL East competition and in two of his three starts against the Marlins he had at least ten K’s and eight innings. He does have a history of blow-up games so be mindful of the risk.
Steven Matz, Mets, 7.3K:
Speaking of Matz, he is right there at 7.3K opposite Freid in Atlanta. He is had a decent amount of success against the Braves allowing two earned over 18 in his last three starts with 18 K’s in the process. My breakdown concern is tied specifically Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna who both had an OPS of over .900 against left-handed pitching last season. All it will take is those two going off and his night is over early.
Yu Darvish, Cubs 9.3K:
I will be quick with this last one, everyone knows he has elite talent, but he is incredibly volatile. It appears that he found his rhythm in the second half of last year and people are likely looking past him if they pay up so he’s in a unique position to give you 60 plus points at sub eight percent ownership which is hard to pass up in a GPP.
*Two quick things before I breakdown hitters, when I am talking about stacks, I largely mean for GPP’s, it is not always optimal when it comes to cash games to stack multiple people from one team. If playing cash limit your exposure and just go with the best plays from the best games. It reduces your long-term volatility in cash game formats. With that said:
MLB Stacks and Bats
Chalk
Red Sox (6.2 implied total): Top stack after last night. No reason to not do it again. Keep an eye on Alex Verdugo’s status. He is 2.3k on FanDuel and he may go under owned because he did not play last night.
Cash: Martinez, Devers, Benintendi, Verdugo GPP: Yes
Astros (6.1 implied total): Stilldon’t know what’s going to happen now with them (how much did the cheatinghelp) but they came out hot scoring eight runs against the Mariners and nowthey get Taijuan Walker who’s pitch a total of 14 mediocre innings in the lasttwo seasons.
Cash: Altuve, Brantley, Springer GPP: Bregman, Correa, Gurriel
Indians (5.6 implied total): They didnot do much offensively in their first game, but the Royals are not likely torepeat that with Brady Singer making his first start today. His toughestcompetition was in AA ball where he was sporting a 3.47 ERA and 1.24 whip over10 starts. He may get through the rotation once just out of luck, but I see himgetting knocked around badly.
Cash: Ramirez, Lindor GPP: Mercado, Santana
Twins (5.0 implied total): Donot know how I almost forgot the Twins. I will be quick. Keuchel is not what heonce was, and Twins hit left-handed pitching…. Hard
Cash: Kepler, Cruz, Polanco, Donaldson GPP: Any right-handed bat
Potential lower owned stacks:
White Sox (4.6 Implied total): Who in the world is Randy Dobnak and why is Vegas saying the Sox are only scoring 4.6 runs against him? Rich Hill is going to miss his start so I think this is mispricing on Vegas’s part. Moncada is already mashing and I think people are going to lean heavier on the Twins bats leaving a leveraged position with better pricing.
Cash: Moncada, Abreu, Roberts GPP: Encarnacion, Jimenez
Braves (4.5 implied total): Ialready touched on this one with Albies and Acuna having .900 ops against LHP.Clearly, they can lay an egg as evidenced last night but a 3 player, low ownedstack will create some serious separation in your large field tournaments
Cash: Acuna, Albies GPP: Freeman, Swanson
Favorite Stack:
Cash: Red Sox
GPP: White Sox
Favorite Pitcher:
Cash: Castillo
GPP: Wheeler
Under owned Stud: Ronald Acuna JR.
Sneaky Play: AlexVerdugo/Luis Roberts
Home Run Call: Michael Brantley
Thanks for taking the time to look through my breakdown for today’s FanDuel main slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
