baseball

What is up ladiesand gentlemen! Hoping the return of sports is treating everyone well. Over hereat Win Daily we are starting the grind off on the right foot. Tons of folks indiscord helping each other out all day every day, getting breaking news outthere, finding your lower owned stacks, and identifying under the radar playsto help separate you from the rest of your competition. We have yet anothermassive 13 game slate to dig into so without any further ado let us dig in!

Pitching:

Cash

ZackGreinke, Astros, 9.6K

We do not have a ton of history when it comes to Greinke vs. the Mariners. He went into the ninth inning late last season with a no-hitter intact and that is it. What I do have, however, is several years watching him pitch every fifth and an understanding of how his slider is nearly impossible for left-handed bats to handle, which happens to be what Seattle is loaded with. He is not the same K/9 guy that he used to be, but he has plenty left in the tank to handle this Mariner lineup.

Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks,8.3K

I have been eagerly awaiting seeing what Gallen is going to do this season. He didn’t give up more than three earned runs at any point during the 2019 season including a seven-inning, eight strikeout shutout against the Padres. Not a ton in terms of BVP but he has a 97 tOPS+ against right-handed bats and he gets the benefit of pitching in San Diego today. He and Greinke are going to make up 80 percent of my cash pitching today.

Trevor Bauer,Reds, 9.7K

Tigers ledthe MLP with a K rate of 26.4 percent last season, Trevor strikes out a ton ofpeople. Not much else to explain on this one. It is going to be a bad day forDetroit.

GPP

ShoheiOhtani, Angels, 8K

I am hoping people wait for a game to see if Shohei is back to form and we can get him at a deep ownership discount. West coast bias is real in DFS and I am hoping enough people are just a bit nervous about using him on his first start back since tommy john. Not much needs to be said about his stuff. He has ended up living up to every bit of his hype in a way that I have never seen, and it has already been stated that he will not be on a pitch count so load up and enjoy the ride.

Ryan Weber,Red Sox, 6.1K

This is not a great day for pitching today so I am trying to find some potential upside near the bottom so you can load up with bats. Weber is a high-risk proposition, but his skillset matches up very well against the Orioles. Weber is a sinker pitcher with around 7.2 K/9 and the O’s sit at around a 23 percent K rate with slightly worse splits against finesse pitchers. No, it is not pretty, but his price combined with the batting woes in Baltimore leads me to put him in a few of my lineups today.

Others to consider: Snell, Hudson, Maeda

Stacks andBats:

Red Sox

Yes, I am going back to the well, yes, I am a little nervous about it. But you cannot be scared as a DFS player and expect to win. The data still says this is an elite matchup. And I am hoping we get a little ownership decrease from yesterday’s poor performance. Do not freak out folks, it is still Baltimore.

Cash: Martinez, Bogaerts, Vasquez GPP: Devers

Yankees:

I think people are going to be scared off by Corbin on the hill a little bit. I truly hope so. There are a few guys on the Yankees who demolish Corbin. Stanton has a 1.319 OPS with 2 HR’s in 18 AB’s, LeMahieu has a 1.127 OPS with four homers in 52 AB’s, Torres has a .900 OBS against LHP, and Aaron Judge was slugging .657 in 99 at-bats against lefties. Everything points to a long day for Corbin.

Cash: Stanton, Judge, LeMahieu, Torres GPP: Sanchez, Urshela

Reds:

Suarez, Castellanos, and Votto are all playing fantastic ball right now and I have no reason to think that Spencer Turnbull is going to anything to slow that down. Votto specifically looks like his former self when he was competing for MVP’s and batting titles year in and year out. Implied total is 5.5 for the Reds today and I am expecting that number to go up before the first pitch

Cash: Suarez, Castellanos Votto GPP: Shogo Akiyama

Rangers:

Rangers are my sneaky game that I am hoping goes overlooked for tournaments. Freeland was giving up 2.2 HR/9 last season and 22 of the 25 he gave up were to right-handed hitters. Solak and Frazier both hit lefties hard and Andrews, Gallo, Choo, and Santana are a threat at any point.

Cash: Solak, Frazier GPP: Gallo, Odor, Choo

Favorite Pitcher:

Cash: Zack Greinke

GPP: Ohtani

Favorite Stack:

Chalk: Yankees

Low Owned: Rangers

Favorite Chalk Player: Giancarlo Stanton

Favorite Low Owned Player: Todd Frazier

Salary Saver: Nick Solak

Home Run Call: Aaron Judge (x2)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my breakdown for today’s FanDuel main slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

What is going on everyone? After three long months where we have not only been told to stay in our homes but to do so without sports MLB is back!!! I hope you all have played the last couple of days because the overlay has been the stuff of dreams (almost 50% in some contests on FanDuel). If not, no worries. I am going to breakdown this giant 13 game main contest and give you some players and teams to attack to end your day with a little extra spending cash. Everything in this article is geared towards FanDuel specific pricing so keep that in mind while reading this breakdown.

Pitching:

Cash

Mike Clevinger, Indians, 10.4K:

Ladies and gentlemen, after seeing just how bad the Royals bats are last night when Beiber struck out 14 in six innings on just four hits there is no way I’m starting my cash game pitchers with anyone but Clevinger. In three starts against KC last year he only gave up two earned in 18 and two-thirds innings with 24 strikeouts and KC somehow looks worse offensively to start the year.

Luis Castillo, Reds, 9.8K:

The above mentioned Clevinger and Castillo are the only two pitchers I am rolling out today for cash. It makes no sense for me to use anyone else on FanDuel due to how they put such a points emphasis on K’s compared to DK. A potential Cy Young winner against the lowly Tigers for under 10k is not something FanDuel should have allowed but if they are offering, I will take it all day.

Max Fried, Braves, 7.5K

I’ll give you one more breakdown……..I don’t want to and I don’t advise any other pitcher for cash but If you absolutely can’t afford either, (change your bats) you can roll with Max Fried. He is another example of pricing not being where it should be. The Met’s are loaded with left-handed batters and they are going to have an incredibly difficult time trying to identify his off-speed pitches. He is young so nerves might be an issue, but he is the future Braves Ace no doubt about it.

GPP:

Zack Wheeler, Phillies, 9k:

Wheeler is in a prime spot against the Marlins and I see a scenario where he goes under-owned due to people paying up $800 for Castillo or down for someone like Matz or Freid. He moved teams but not divisions so there is no lack of familiarity against NL East competition and in two of his three starts against the Marlins he had at least ten K’s and eight innings. He does have a history of blow-up games so be mindful of the risk.

Steven Matz, Mets, 7.3K:

Speaking of Matz, he is right there at 7.3K opposite Freid in Atlanta. He is had a decent amount of success against the Braves allowing two earned over 18 in his last three starts with 18 K’s in the process.  My breakdown concern is tied specifically Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna who both had an OPS of over .900 against left-handed pitching last season. All it will take is those two going off and his night is over early.

Yu Darvish, Cubs 9.3K:

I will be quick with this last one, everyone knows he has elite talent, but he is incredibly volatile. It appears that he found his rhythm in the second half of last year and people are likely looking past him if they pay up so he’s in a unique position to give you 60 plus points at sub eight percent ownership which is hard to pass up in a GPP.

*Two quick things before I breakdown hitters, when I am talking about stacks, I largely mean for GPP’s, it is not always optimal when it comes to cash games to stack multiple people from one team. If playing cash limit your exposure and just go with the best plays from the best games. It reduces your long-term volatility in cash game formats. With that said:

MLB Stacks and Bats

Chalk

Red Sox (6.2 implied total): Top stack after last night. No reason to not do it again. Keep an eye on Alex Verdugo’s status. He is 2.3k on FanDuel and he may go under owned because he did not play last night.

Cash: Martinez, Devers, Benintendi, Verdugo GPP: Yes

Astros (6.1 implied total): Stilldon’t know what’s going to happen now with them (how much did the cheatinghelp) but they came out hot scoring eight runs against the Mariners and nowthey get Taijuan Walker who’s pitch a total of 14 mediocre innings in the lasttwo seasons.

Cash: Altuve, Brantley, Springer GPP: Bregman, Correa, Gurriel

Indians (5.6 implied total): They didnot do much offensively in their first game, but the Royals are not likely torepeat that with Brady Singer making his first start today. His toughestcompetition was in AA ball where he was sporting a 3.47 ERA and 1.24 whip over10 starts. He may get through the rotation once just out of luck, but I see himgetting knocked around badly.

Cash: Ramirez, Lindor GPP: Mercado, Santana

Twins (5.0 implied total): Donot know how I almost forgot the Twins. I will be quick. Keuchel is not what heonce was, and Twins hit left-handed pitching…. Hard

Cash: Kepler, Cruz, Polanco, Donaldson GPP: Any right-handed bat

Potential lower owned stacks:

White Sox (4.6 Implied total): Who in the world is Randy Dobnak and why is Vegas saying the Sox are only scoring 4.6 runs against him? Rich Hill is going to miss his start so I think this is mispricing on Vegas’s part. Moncada is already mashing and I think people are going to lean heavier on the Twins bats leaving a leveraged position with better pricing.

Cash: Moncada, Abreu, Roberts GPP: Encarnacion, Jimenez

Braves (4.5 implied total): Ialready touched on this one with Albies and Acuna having .900 ops against LHP.Clearly, they can lay an egg as evidenced last night but a 3 player, low ownedstack will create some serious separation in your large field tournaments

Cash: Acuna, Albies GPP: Freeman, Swanson

Favorite Stack:

Cash: Red Sox

GPP: White Sox

Favorite Pitcher:

Cash: Castillo

GPP: Wheeler

Under owned Stud: Ronald Acuna JR.

Sneaky Play: AlexVerdugo/Luis Roberts

Home Run Call: Michael Brantley

Thanks for taking the time to look through my breakdown for today’s FanDuel main slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!