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baseball

Cash with Flash Saturday MLB Picks!

Phil Naessens 4 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Saturday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.

Thursday was another profitable day as we hit both of our picks including a +115 underdog. That leaves us with a 20-11-4 mark over the history of this MLB Betting column.

We’re ahead of the game because of the nine underdogs we hit. Nearly 50 percent of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.

The most important thing to remember when betting on baseball is finding underdogs as it takes a 52.4 percent success rate at -110 just to break even. This column will offer a mixture of mid to short favorites (-110 to -160) as well as underdogs at +200 and below.

We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.

Saturday MLB Best Bets!

Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).

In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101

Cleveland Indians vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Game two of a scheduled three-game series is set to begin at 4:05pm today. The Pirates took game one on Friday night by a score of 10-9.

Righty Cal Quantrill (0-2, 3.11) is set to make the start today and over his previous 7.1 innings pitched has allowed six earned runs with seven strikeouts. He’ll face a Pittsburgh offense with a 22.6 percent strikeout rate, .121 ISO with a wRC+ of 83 against righties this season.

Right-handed pitcher Wil Crowe (0-4, 6.75) is the Pirates probable starting pitcher for this afternoon and has allowed 13 earned runs with a dozen strikeouts over his past 10.1 innings pitched. He’s up against a Cleveland offense with a 22.5 percent strikeout rate, .166 ISO and 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.

Cash with Flash Saturday MLB Pick: Cleveland -132

St Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

Game three of a four-game scheduled series begins at 7:05pm tonight. Atlanta has won both games of this series.

Righty Adam Wainwright (4-5, 3.95) is the Cardinals probable starting pitcher for tonight and over his past 20 innings of work has allowed seven earned runs with 16 strikeouts. He’ll face an Atlanta offense with a 24.9 percent strikeout percentage, .191 ISO and wRC+ of 104 against righties this season.

Lefty Drew Smyly (3-3, 5.63) is scheduled to make the start tonight and has allowed seven earned runs with 12 punchouts over his past 13.2 innings pitched. He’s up against a Cardinals offense with a 22.5 percent strikeout rate, .178 ISO and wRC+ of 113 against left-handed pitching this season.

Cash with Flash Saturday MLB Pick: Cardinals +109

Good luck today!

4 years ago 0 comments

Cash with Flash Thursday MLB Picks!

Phil Naessens 4 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Thursday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.

Wednesday was another profitable day as we hit a huge +160 Toronto Blue Jays win followed by a Dodgers loss. That leaves us with a 18-11-4 mark over the history of this MLB Betting column.

We’re ahead of the game because of the eight underdogs we hit. Nearly 50 percent of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.

We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.

Thursday MLB Best Bets!

Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).

In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

Game four of a four game season ending series takes place tonight at 7:00pm and the Mets are looking for a series sweep. Each team has won three games apiece in the season series.

Righty Kyle Hendricks (8-4, 4.46) is supposed to make the start tonight and over his past 18.1 innings pitched has allowed eight earned runs with 11 strikeouts. He’s up against a Mets offense with a 23.6 percent strikeout rate, .142 wOBA and .306 wOBA against righties this season.

Right-hander Marcus Stroman (6-4, 2.33) is set to toe the rubber tonight and has allowed four earned runs with 21 strikeouts over his previous 19 innings pitched. He’ll face a Cubs offense with a 25.5 percent strikeout rate, .175 ISO and .310 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Cash with Flash Thursday MLB Pick: Cubs +115

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros

Tonight marks the first meeting between the two clubs this season when their four-game series begins tonight at 8:00pm.

Righty Dylan Cease (5-2, 3.38) is set to make the start tonight and over his past 15.1 innings pitched has surrendered eight earned runs with 19 strikeouts. He’ll meet a Houston offense with a 19.3 percent strikeout rate, .171 ISO and .337 wOBA against righties this season.

Right-hander Jose Urquidy (4-3, 3.77) will look to make the start tonight and over his past 17.1 innings pitched has allowed 10 earned runs with 22 punchouts. He’s up against a White Sox offense with a 23 percent strikeout rate alongside a .140 ISO and .320 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Cash with Flash Thursday MLB Pick: Houston -135

Good luck today!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Cash with Flash Wednesday MLB Picks!

Phil Naessens 4 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Wednesday MLB Picks Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.

Tuesday we went 1-0-1 but pushed with the Brewers at plus money. That leaves us with a 17-10-4 mark over the history of this MLB Betting column.

We’re ahead of the game because of the seven underdogs we hit. Nearly 50 percent of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.

We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.

Wednesday MLB Picks!

Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).

In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays

Game two of a three-game scheduled series takes place tonight at 7:05 pm EST and New York took game one of the series. Toronto has a 6-4 season series lead.

Righty Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.31) is the Yankees probable starting pitcher tonight and over 17 innings pitched has allowed eight earned runs with 21 strikeouts. He’s up against a Toronto offense with a 22.3 percent strikeout rate, .193 ISO and .338 wOBA against righties this season.

Right-hander Ross Stripling (2-3, 4.91) is set to make the start tonight and has allowed six earned runs with 13 strikeouts over his past 15.2 innings pitched. He’ll face a Yankees offense with a 25 percent strikeout rate alongside a .152 ISO and .310 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Cash with Flash Wednesday MLB Pick: Toronto +160

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Game three of a three-game scheduled series is set for 10:10 pm tonight. Los Angeles is looking to sweep the series with a win.

Righty Zach Wheeler (4-3, 2.29) is set to make the tonight and over his previous 22.1 innings pitched has allowed five earned runs with 32 strikeouts. He’s up against a Dodgers offense with a 22.1 percent strikeout rate alongside a .171 ISO and .339 wOBA against righties this season.

Lefty Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 3.39) will toe the rubber against Philadelphia and over his previous 18 innings of work has surrendered 11 earned runs with 24 strikeouts. He’s pitching against a Phillies offense with a 27.3 percent strikeout rate, .155 ISO and .318 wOBA against southpaws this season.

Cash with Flash Wednesday MLB Pick: Dodgers -140

Good luck today!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Cash with Flash Monday MLB Picks!

Phil Naessens 4 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Monday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.

Sunday was so-so as went 1-1 with our picks but missed the Phillies at plus money. That leaves us with a 15-10-2 mark over the history of this MLB Betting column.

We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.

Monday MLB Best Bets!

Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).

In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox

This is the first meeting between the two clubs this season when game one of a three game series begins tonight.

Righty Tyler Glasgow (5-2, 2.17) is set to toe the rubber tonight and over his previous 22 innings of work has allowed four earned runs with 30 strikeouts. He’s up against a White Sox offense with a 23 percent strikeout rate, .142 ISO and .323 wOBA against righties this season.

Veteran right-hander Lance Lynn (7-1, 1.23) is scheduled to make the start tonight and has allowed two earned runs with 22 strikeouts over his past 18 innings pitched. Tampa Bay has a 26.1 percent strikeout rate with a .169 ISO and .321 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Cash with Flash Monday MLB Pick: Tampa Bay -115

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners

Game one of a season ending three-game series starts tonight with Seattle owning a 2-1 season series lead over the Twins.

Southpaw J.A. Happ (3-2, 5.75) is supposed to make the start tonight and has allowed 11 earned runs with nine strikeouts over his past 15 innings pitched. He’ll face a Mariners offense with a 27.6 percent strikeout rate, .158 ISO with a .281 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Righty Chris Flexen (5-3, 4.68) is set to man the bump tonight and over his past 19 innings pitched has allowed eight earned runs with a dozen strikeouts. He’s up against a Twins offense with a 22.9 percent strikeout rate, .185 ISO and .321 wOBA against righties this season.

Cash with Flash Monday MLB Pick: Seattle +114

Good luck today!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Cash with Flash Wednesday MLB Picks!

Phil Naessens 4 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Wednesday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.

We’re sure you are wondering what an “NBA Guy” is doing writing an MLB betting column here at Win Daily?

That’s a very good question and since you asked, you can rest assured that Cash with Flash Best Bets knows exactly what we are doing. In order to arrive at our conclusions, we’ll be using the principles found in Betting Baseball 101

Tuesday was a decent kind of day as we went 1-1-1 with our picks. That leaves us with a 9-8-2 mark over the history of this MLB Betting column.

We’re ahead of the game because of the four underdogs we hit. Nearly 50 percent of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.

We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.

Wednesday MLB Best Bets!

Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Wednesday marks game two of a three game set with Atlanta taking a 1-0 series lead with a big win last night. That leaves the season series at 5-5.

The Braves are 7-6 as the away underdog and tonight they intend on sending lefty Tucker Davidson (0-0, 2.31) out to the bump. Over his previous 11.2 innings pitched Davidson has allowed three earned runs with ten strikeouts. He’s up against a Phillies offense with a 29.3 percent strikeout rate, .161 ISO alongside of a .322 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

The Phillies are 3-7 this season as the home favorites and will look to righty Zach Eflin (2-5, 4.10) to quiet the Atlanta sticks. Over his last 16.2 innings pitched Eflin has allowed nine earned runs with 17 strikeouts. He’ll face an Atlanta offense with a 25.2 percent strikeout rate, .193 ISO and .321 wOBA against righties this season.

Cash with Flash Wednesday MLB Pick: Braves +119

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox

Game two of a three-game series is set to take place tonight with Houston winning game one Tuesday night improving their season series mastery over Boston 4-1.

Houston is 6-3 as the away underdog and is looking to send out righty Jake Odorizzi (0-3, 7.16) to the hill. Over his past 8.2 innings of work the veteran righty has allowed four earned runs with six strikeouts. He’s up against a Red Sox offense with a 25 percent strikeout rate alongside a .190 ISO and .328 wOBA.

Boston is 13-10 as the home favorite this season and is hoping to send out right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (7-2, 3.78) to handle Houston. Over his previous 16.2 innings pitched Eovaldi has allowed three earned runs with six strikeouts. He’s up against an Astros offense with a 19 percent strikeout rate alongside a .156 ISO and .325 wOBA against righties this season.

Cash with Flash Wednesday MLB Pick: Astros +115

New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles

The teams wrap up a two-game series Wednesday and New York is 0-1 in the series and 2-1 for the season series that ends today.

New York is 7-10 this season as the away favorite and will send out righty Taijuan Walker (4-2, 2.17) to face Baltimore. Over his previous 13 innings of work Walker has allowed three earned runs with a dozen strikeouts. He’s up against an Orioles offense with a 24.4 percent strikeout rate, .151 ISO and .289 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Baltimore is 10-16 as the home underdog and righty Matt Harvey (3-6, 6.62) is set to toe the rubber tonight against his former club. Over the past 10.2 innings pitched Harvey has allowed 11 earned runs with 15 strikeouts. He pitches against a Mets offense with a 23.4 percent strikeout rate, .130 ISO and .301 wOBA against righties this season.

Cash with Flash Wednesday MLB Pick: Mets -144

Good luck today!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Cash with Flash Tuesday MLB Picks!

Phil Naessens 4 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Welcome to Cash with Flash Best Bets Tuesday MLB Betting Column. We’re excited to be here and we’ll try and write in this space as often as time allows.

We’re sure you are wondering what an “NBA Guy” is doing writing an MLB betting column here at Win Daily?

Friday was a rough one as we went 1-2 on the day. That leaves us with a 8-7-1 mark over the history of this MLB Betting column.

We’re ahead of the game because of the three underdogs we hit. Nearly 50 percent of our wins were from wagering on underdogs and without them we’d be trending in the wrong direction. That’s something we don’t want to do.

We’re also looking at F5 inning wagers in order to eliminate bullpens, the church league softball extra-inning, man on second base and seven-inning doubleheader rules MLB has thrust upon us.

Tuesday MLB Best Bets!

Unless otherwise indicated, all wagers are First Five Innings Wagers (F5).

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds

The two sides meet for game-one of a three-game series. Tuesday marks the fourth time the teams have met this season with the Brewers holding a 2-1 season series lead.

Milwaukee boasts an away underdog record of 12-5 and has scheduled righty Adrian Houser (3-5, 3.86) out to the bump against the Reds. Over his last 14 innings pitched Houser has allowed seven earned runs with 14 strikeouts. He’s up against a Reds offense with a 22 percent strikeout rate alongside a .185 ISO and .334 wOBA this season against right handed pitching.

Cincinnati is playing .500 ball when favorites at home and will look to rightly Sonny Grey (1-4, 3.64) to slow down Milwaukee. Over his previous 16.2 innings of work Grey has surrendered six earned runs with 21 punchouts. Grey will face a Brewers offense with a 26 percent strikeout rate, .155 wOBA and .288 wOBA against righties this season.

Cash with Flash Tuesday MLB Pick: Brewers +127

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox

Game one of a three-game set begins on Tuesday and is the first meeting between the two clubs this season.

The Blue Jays are 11-10 as away underdogs and will look to southpaw Robbie Ray (3-2, 3.57) to quiet the Chicago bats. Over the past 17.2 innings pitched Ray has allowed six earned runs with 21 punchouts. He’ll meet a White Sox offense with a 23.9 percent strikeout rate, .194 ISO alongside a .357 wOBA against southpaws this season.

Chicago is 23-8 this season as home favorites and they’ll send out southpaw Carlos Rodon (5-2, 1.98) to face Toronto. Over his past 18 innings of work Rodon has whiffed 31 while allowing six earned runs. He’s up against a Blue Jays offense with a 21.3 percent strikeout rate, .169 ISO and .322 wOBA against lefties this season.

Cash with Flash Tuesday MLB Pick: White Sox -151

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins

Game one of a three-game scheduled series commences on Tuesday and this will be the first meeting of the season between the two clubs.

New York is 13-12 as an away favorite and they will look to lefty Jordan Montgomery (3-1, 3.92) to tame the Twins bats. Over his past 18 innings pitched Montgomery has allowed four earned runs with 18 strikeouts. He’s up against a Minnesota offense with a 25.1 percent strikeout rate, .196 ISO and .324 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

The Twins are 2-2 this season as a home underdog and are expecting righty Michael Pineda (3-3, 3.40) to make the start on Tuesday. Over his previous 14.1 innings pitched Pineda has surrendered nine earned runs with 16 strikeouts. He’ll face a Yankees offense with a 25.9 percent strikeout rate alongside a .137 ISO and .304 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Cash with Flash Tuesday MLB Pick: Twins +107

Good luck today!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Stealing Home: Sunday, June 6th

Josh Barzal 4 years ago

written by Josh Barzal

Welcome to my first edition of MLB DFS Stealing Home: Sunday, June 6th, I will look to give you guys the best plays possible in a brief breakdown to lead you to hit some green on today’s slate. We have a nice ten-game main slate today so let’s get into it.

There are two main aces on our slate today with Corbin Burnes and Trevor Bauer, of the two I heavily lean toward Burnes as he is in a better matchup with the Diamondbacks. Burnes is also an elite K% arm with a 38.7% K rate this year which I expect to continue today. I am pulling out a full fade on Bauer today as I expect he gets hit hard and often against this Braves offense. The next target I am looking at for pitchers is going to have to be Sandy Alcantara who has a matchup with the Pirates. He isn’t a strikeout ace with this 23.7% rate but I expect him to be the safest option on this slate as I believe I can make a case for almost every offense here. Plug Burnes and Alcantara and look for bats with our $3,687 remaining salary per player.

I hate to sound like our very own 2LockSports but my favorite overall stack on the day is going to be the Tampa lefties against Dane Dunning. Dunning is a respectable pitcher to righties but it all falls apart when he is trying to throw against lefties where his GB% sinks to 41.9% and his hard-hit rate climbs to 45.2%. I am looking to target Kevin Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, and Joey Wendle against Dunning today.

Picking through for value today I am looking at Sandy Leon (2,400), Hunter Dozier (3,300), Albert Pujols (2,500). Those are my main targets today for value as I like all three in their matchups, Pujols is mainly power hunting for cheap against Fried.

A bonus stack that I like today if you’re into following theories is to fully send the braves against Bauer. This has minimal numbers that support it but we saw the same thing happen to Gerrit Cole. The MLB is cracking down on the use of foreign substances and I believe Bauer is next on the list for their main targets. I expect spin rates will be down today and the Braves to mash on Bauer. I would target them as a low-owned full stack on today’s slate.

Stealing Home: Summary

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Stealing Home: Sunday, June 6th. I believe our pitching strategy is doable with the value bats we have on this slate with the Rays being my favorite main stack against Dunning, as well as the full Braves stack if your feeling risky. For our other articles here at WinDaily click here, and to join our discord click here. Good luck today everyone!!! I will be in discord to answer questions!!!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday, May 23rd

Josh Barzal 4 years ago

written by Josh Barzal

Welcome to the Sunday, May 23rd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

I am here to help step in for our very own Brian Tulloch today as he is still celebrating all the money he won yesterday stacking against Jon Lester and I am excited to get the best plays across for you guys on todays 10 game slate on Draftkings!!

MLB Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

Taking a dive into the pitchers on today’s main slate I am going to be diving into two different paths for today, going with Brian’s favorite in double aces and then looking into finding our value plays at the position.

Looking at the most expensive plays on the slate there is no true DFS ace for us to target while we do have the next best thing in Zach Wheeler who is a real-life ace and Freddy Peralta who is a bit risky but has ace upside with his strikeout rate, Draftkings has seen this though as they are both priced way up there at $11,200 and $10,500 respectively. As Adam Strangis broke down in our Starting Rotation today, the match-up in particular for Peralta is one we want to pay up for.

Our way to make sure we can get one of these two into our lineups today is someone that we touched on yesterday in Jordan Yamamoto. Here is an excerpt from yesterday’s article, “Yamamoto has shown swing and miss ability in his career with a 25% K rate and he has flashed the same ability in the minors this season but let’s be real this is a simple price and match-up play. The Marlins have the third-highest K rate in baseball overall and are 2nd in baseball with a 27.2% K rate against right-handed pitching.”

I am looking to take advantage of this matchup with us not needing too much to hit value today either, look to match Wheeler or Peralta today with Yamamoto to get in some of those high-priced bats today.

Our pitching setup allows us to take a look at most bats that we would want to play today including the Indians and Orioles, both teams would qualify as some of my favorite bats today. I am looking to run with a core of J-Ram, Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, and Jordan Luplow.

The Indians get to take on JA Happ, who has been hammered by RHB this season to the tune of a .234 ISO while limiting LHB to a .034 ISO so any Indians stack or mini-stack should be focused on the power righties like Luplow and J-Ram.

Speaking of lefties who have been hammered by righties, Patrick Corbin has surrendered a .290 ISO and near 50% HC rate to RHB so the same Orioles righties we built around yesterday – we can go right back to today!

Taking this one step further – I think we can stay in this game and build a mini-game stack with the Nationals lefties to fill in the gaps going against Matt Harvey who has struggled to keep the ball in the park against LHB this season with a 1.5 HR/9 rate.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

I am really liking our SP1-SP2 strategy with Jordan Yamamoto down at $4000 allowing us to get up to our ace upside in Wheeler and Peralta. The salary left gives us a nice path to getting to our Indians and Orioles stacks and filling in with the left-handed power bats from the Nationals today!

Good luck today all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide

Andrew Arbeit 4 years ago

written by Andrew Arbeit

MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide

Howdy! Welcome to my 2021 Win Daily Sports’ MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide. If you read my last article, you have joined your MLB season-long fantasy leagues (mine are on CBS and Yahoo), scheduled your drafts, and are now preparing to dominate your leagues. This article will go over some strategies for keepers and drafts (auction and snake), as well as some player rankings.

KEEPERS

I enjoy keeper leagues. Two of my three leagues are keeper leagues. I like that it makes the fantasy league a year-round activity and allows for more skill to be involved. I especially like that fantasy league members with no shot at winning in a particular season are still incentivized to be involved because they can improve their chances for the following season and beyond by improving their keepers via trades and free agency. My recent favorite example of this occurred a few years ago in 2017 in my AL-Only keeper auction league. I was having a down year and was able to trade some non-keepers for a young Gary Sanchez and a still-in-the-minor-leagues, Gleybar Torres. Yes, I am a Mets fan, but I also like winning in fantasy leagues and this trade set me up for success for the next couple of seasons. In fact, Gleybar Torres is still on my team and at a lower than market rate price.

Make sure you know the rules in your league governing keepers. Most leagues will institute some kind of tax or inflation which will affect the keeper value of the player. In snake drafts, the tax usually is having the keeper player have to kept in a higher round than they were originally drafted, i.e., a player drafted in the 6th round would now be kept in the 4th round. In auction leagues, there may be an additional cost added to the player being kept, i.e., a player won at auction for $10 would be kept for $15. Additionally, there may be rules in both types of leagues for how many years a player can be kept. All these variables will affect how valuable your keeper is.

Speaking of value, that is the key to determining whether or not you should keep a player. You would not decide to make Mike Trout one of your keepers in a snake draft with the 1st overall pick in the 1st round of the draft. This is because there is no value in doing that when you could just keep other players and redraft Mike Trout. The same goes for an auction league where you would have to keep Trout for $75 but you believe it is likely he would only go between $50 – $60 in the draft. You have to make sure you have player rankings and auction prices figured out for your specific leagues when making your keeper determinations. You also need to determine your league’s inflation rate.

DRAFTS

Personally, I prefer auction drafts. I enjoy both, but there is more skill involved in auction drafts, so I typically perform better. Also, in snake drafts, I inherently do not like that my random and arbitrary draft slot decides who is on my team. I have a snake draft this week where I have the 13th pick out of 14 teams so I already know a few players I have no shot at drafting. Conversely, if any of my personally ranked top-12 players fall to me at #13, I am now getting a great value in my draft spot.

Whether you are in an auction or snake draft, if you sing while playing fantasy baseball you may not get a good pitch(er)! #DadJoke. While that joke is obviously terrible, my advice is not. Sing all you want because you do not need to waste valuable resources on good pitch(ers). Hitters, especially the top ones, are generally more consistent and less injury prone from year to year and thus more projectable. As such, they are a better use of prime auction dollars and high-round draft picks.

Your season-long fantasy league cannot be won the moment the draft is completed. Most successful teams will usually look vastly different at the end of the year. Even if you come out of the draft with a weak pitching staff, you will always be able to improve it on the waiver wire, free agency, or trades. An active manager has a better chance at being successful. This principle, added to the fact that it is usually much easier to find pitchers throughout the year, enforces my belief that hitters are more important in the draft.

In a snake draft, I will usually seek to draft 6-7 hitters in the first 10 rounds. In an auction draft, I am looking to spend 70-80% of my budget on hitters. Obviously, things can change if value appears (you know the saying, if they zig you want to zag), but this is generally my approach. It is also helpful to do some mock drafts.

RANKINGS

Now the moment some of my friends and league mates have been waiting for: Here are my personal 2021 MLB season-long fantasy draft guide league rankings by position. These rankings can change depending on league rules and team needs, i.e., if I need more speed or power or batting average depending on the other players on my team. Make sure you check your individual league and website for player’s position eligibility. Even more importantly, make sure you are up to date on a player’s injury status.

Catcher

1) J.T. Realmuto (PHI)
2) Yasmani Grandal (CWS)
3) Wilson Contrearas (CHC)
4) Salvador Perez (KC)
5) Will Smith (LAD)
6) Travis d’Arnaud (ATL)
7) Gary Sanchez (NYY)
8) Christian Vazquez (BOS)
9) James McCann (NYM)
10) Mitch Garver (MIN)

Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Sean Murphy (OAK)

First Base

1) Freddie Freeman (ATL)
2) Pete Alonso (NYM)
3) Jose Abreu (CWS)
4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)
5) Matt Olsen (OAK)
6) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
7) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)
8) Max Muncy (LAD)
9) Eric Hosmer (SD)
10) Rhys Hoskins (PHI)

Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Josh Bell (WSH) and Miguel Sano (MIN)

Top 10 but injured and can be drafted lower than normal: Luke Voit (NYY)

Young players with upside I like: Jared Walsh (LAA) and Bobby Dalbec (BOS)

Second Base

1) DJ LeMahieu (NYY)
2) Ozzie Albies (ATL)
3) Keston Hiura (MIL)
4) Ketel Marte (ARI)
5) Jose Altuve (HOU)
6) Cavan Biggio (TOR)
7) Brandon Lowe (TB)
8) Mike Moustakas (CIN)
9) Nick Madrigal (CWS)
10) Jean Segura (PHI)

Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Ryan McMahon (COL) and Cesar Hernandez (CLE)

Young players with upside I like: Gavin Lux (LAD)

Shortstop

1) Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)
2) Trea Turner (WSH)
3) Trevor Story (COL)
4) Francisco Lindor (NYM)
5) Corey Seager (LAD)
6) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)
7) Bo Bichette (TOR)
8) Adalberto Mondesi (KC)
9) Gleybar Torres (NYY)
10) Tim Anderson (CWS)

Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Javier Baez (CHC), Carlos Correa (HOU), Marcus Semien (TOR), and Dansby Swanson (ATL)

Young players with upside I like: Willi Castro (DET)

Third Base

1) Jose Ramirez (CLE)
2) Rafael Devers (BOS)
3) Manny Machado (SD)
4) Alex Bregman (HOU)
5) Anthony Rendon (LAA)
6) Eugenio Suarez (CIN)
7) Nolan Arenado (STL)
8) Matt Chapman (OAK)
9) Kris Bryant (CHC)
10) Yoan Moncada (CWS)

Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Justin Turner (LAD)

Young players with upside I like: Alec Bohm (PHI), Austin Riley (ATL), and Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT)

Outfield

1) Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)
2) Mike Trout (LAA)
3) Juan Soto (WSH)
4) Mookie Betts (LAD)
5) Christian Yelich (MIL)
6) Cody Bellinger (LAD)
7) George Springer (TOR)
8) Bryce Harper (WSH)
9) Marcell Ozuna (ATL)
10) Aaron Judge (NYY)
11) Luis Robert (CWS)
12) Kyle Tucker (HOU)
13) Charlie Blackmon (COL)
14) Michael Conforto (NYM)
15) Nick Castellanos (CIN)
16) Eddie Rosario (CLE)
17) Whit Merrifield (KC)
18) Starling Marte (MIA)
19) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR)
20) Jeff McNeil (NYM)
21) Teoscar Hernandez (TOR)
22) Randy Arozarena (TB)
23) Anthony Santander (BAL)
24) Joey Gallo (TEX)
25) Trent Grisham (SD)
26) Ramon Laureano (OAK)
27) Wil Myers (SD)
28) Tommy Pham (SD)
29) Max Kepler (MIN)
30) Byron Buxton (MIN)

Just outside my top 30 but I would not mind drafting: Alex Verdugo (BOS), Ryan Mountcastle (BAL), Dominic Smith (NYM), and Victor Robles (WSH)

Young players with upside I like: Kyle Lewis (SEA) and Dylan Carlson (STL)

Designated Hitter (may have other eligibility)

1) Yordan Alvarez (HOU)
2) J.D. Martinez (BOS)
3) Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)
4) Franmil Reyes (CLE)
5) Jorge Soler (KC)
6) Shohei Ohtani (LAA)
7) Michael Brantley (HOU)
8) Nelson Cruz (MIN)

Starting Pitcher

1) Jacob deGrom (NYM)
2) Gerrit Cole (NYY)
3) Shane Bieber (CLE)
4) Yu Darvish (SD)
5) Walker Buehler (LAD)
6) Max Scherzer (WSH)
7) Jack Flaherty (STL)
8) Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
9) Trevor Bauer (LAD)
10) Lucas Giolito (CWS)
11) Brandon Woodruff (MIL)
12) Tyler Glasnow (TB)
13) Luis Castillo (CIN)
14) Aaron Nola (PHI)
15) Blake Snell (SD)
16) Zach Grienke (HOU)
17) Stephen Strasburg (WSH)
18) Kenta Maeda (MIN)
19) Jose Berrios (MIN)
20) Lance Lynn (CWS)

Just outside my top 20 but I would not mind drafting: Dinelson Lamet (SD), Corbin Burnes (MIL), and Sonny Gray (CIN)

Young players with upside I like: most of the Miami Marlins SPs and Ian Anderson (ATL)

Relief Pitcher

1) Josh Hader (MIL)
2) Liam Hendricks (CWS)
3) Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
4) Raisel Iglesias (LAA)
5) Edwin Diaz (NYM)
6) Will Smith (ATL)
7) Kenley Jansen (LAD)
8) Trevor Rosenthal (OAK)
9) Ryan Pressly (HOU)
10) Brad Hand (WSH)
11) James Karinchak (CLE)
12) Craig Kimbrel (CHC)
13) Taylor Rogers (MIN)
14) Greg Holland (KC)
15) Giovanny Gallegos (STL)
16) Matt Barnes (BOS)
17) Diego Castillo (TB)
18) Rafael Montero (SEA)
19) Richard Rodriguez (PIT)
20) Anthony Bass (MIA)

Dominant Relief Pitchers who might not get saves but I would not mind drafting: Devin Williams (MIL), Amir Garrett (CIN), and Jordan Hicks (STL)

I hope my 2021 Win Daily Sports’ MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide helps you in your leagues and is not used against me in mine! Best of luck!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

Best Practices for MLB Season-Long Drafts

Andrew Arbeit 4 years ago

written by Andrew Arbeit

Best Practices for MLB Season-Long Drafts

Howdy! Thank you for checking out my best practices for MLB season-long drafts. If you are like me, a long-suffering New York Mets fan, you spent the offseason rejuvenated by the idea that has been circulated via a meme on Twitter that much like Andy Dufresne in The Shawshank Redemption, we [the Mets fans] have “crawled through a river of shit [The Wilpons] and came out clean on the other side [Steve Cohen]”. To give you an idea the type of fan I am, my son regularly wears my old 1988 NL East Champs t-shirt, my wife has graciously allowed me to keep the seats I purchased from Shea Stadium in 2008 in our backyard despite multiple moves and houses, and my two offseason Mets-related purchases were a Barstool Sports “Uncle Stevie” t-shirt and a Pitching Ninja “Amazin’ Edition” t-shirt.

If you are also like me and live in the northeast, March means winter is ending, the snow is melting, and baseball is fast approaching. It also means that it’s time to figure out your plans for that year’s rendition of season-long fantasy baseball. I’m not even talking about player rankings or draft strategies; I’m talking about just figuring out how many leagues you will play in and when those drafts will be.

Some of these concepts may seem simple and not worth your time – but they are important – and we must start somewhere. In future articles I will go more into the nuts and bolts of season-long fantasy baseball but let us start here for now.

DIVERSIFY

As we all know, DFS is on the rise. The ability to start with a clean slate every day (and not play every day) is extremely appealing. Conversely, it’s not appealing to draft a season-long team that is ravaged by injuries and poor play which effectively ends your fantasy season in May. However, I’m a firm believer that you can enjoy both DFS and season-long fantasy at the same time. The key is diversification. Much like having multiple entries in a DFS contest, I always agree to be in at least three season-long leagues in MLB, NBA, and NFL. I know this may seem time consuming to some, but if you are reading this article you are probably like me and can manage it.

This is especially true since two of my three leagues are “weekly lineup” leagues, so during the week I can afford to only monitor my teams’ performance from afar and partake in waivers, if needed, without feeling any kind of daily grind or pressure in the event life gets in the way. This diversification allows me to be more successful over time, as all my potential profit is not tied up in one league. If I win one of the three leagues, I make money. Even if I don’t win a league, usually if I finish in the money in one or two of the three leagues, I either make money or break even overall. Yes, there are occasional dry spells, but there are also really big highs, like in 2019 (the last full MLB season) where I finished in 1^st, 1^st, and 2^nd in my three MLB season-long leagues.

I believe it’s also important that the leagues you join are fundamentally different. It wouldn’t be enjoyable if each league were exactly the same. One of my leagues is an AL-Only keeper auction 5×5 roto league with 9 keepers, 23 players starting (including 2 catchers) and no bench. Another is a keeper auction head-to-head points league with 3 keepers. The last league is not a keeper league, but I have been in it for 20+ years, it’s usually a daily lineup league, and it has oscillated between roto and head-to-head depending on the year and the number of teams. These differences make each league feel fresh and managing them feels more like a hobby and less like a chore.

DRAFTS

“How do fantasy baseball players keep in contact?” “They touch base every once in a while!” (My website biography warns of “Dad” jokes!)

Being in three leagues also obligates me to being available for three separate drafts. Personally, I enjoy drafting more than most; it never feels like an obligation to me. However, the key to a successful draft is all common sense based: be available (don’t auto-draft) and avoid having multiple drafts at the same day/time. Most leagues try to make the draft as close to the start of the season as possible (so all injuries are known, and opening day rosters are set) but this can lead to fantasy leagues vying for the same prime draft slot.

My advice is to either be the commissioner of the league so you can have final say on scheduling the draft and can avoid conflicts or be vocal early and often with the league and/or the commissioner on your availability. I prefer the latter, as the extra time commitment and headaches the commissioner has to deal with is not worth it to me. Out of my 9 season-long MLB, NBA, and NFL fantasy leagues, I am only the commissioner in 1 and I only became the commissioner to keep the league together and save my friend’s sanity. However, I make myself helpful and indispensable to the commissioners in the other 8 leagues, because I am genuinely a nice guy and because it will usually buy me some draft scheduling preferences.

Once you have your drafts at different days/times, you have set yourself up for success. Each league having its own date/time is a great way to give each league the attention it deserves. However, now I have three separate nights in late-March where my normal routine is altered. For those of you like me with a spouse or a significant other (and young kids), please, please, please, make sure you clear your availability with your partner, and have it marked in your shared Google calendar or old-school written on your refrigerator as soon as your league schedules its draft. I will even mark it as “tentative” in our shared Google calendar to help avoid any surprises and allow for preparation – both actual and mental! Real life fights over fantasy sports don’t help you in real life or in fantasy sports, and you aren’t going to draft a successful team if you don’t have a successful team/situation in your house at the time of the draft.

Lastly, speaking of your house. In pre-COVID-19 times when leagues routinely got together to draft, I learned the hard way a few times that I will do everything in my power to avoid hosting the draft. I love seeing my friends, but I have never been successful in a league in a season where I hosted the draft. You wind up having to spend time actually hosting, which takes away from the key objectives of the draft – compiling an awesome team and making fun of everyone else and their teams! Good luck on choosing your leagues and scheduling your drafts. I hope my best practices for MLB season-long drafts help you.

4 years ago 0 comments

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Stealing Home: Summary

MLB Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide

KEEPERS

DRAFTS

RANKINGS

Catcher

First Base

Second Base

Shortstop

Third Base

Outfield

Designated Hitter (may have other eligibility)

Starting Pitcher

Relief Pitcher

Best Practices for MLB Season-Long Drafts

DIVERSIFY

DRAFTS

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