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Atlanta Falcons

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New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons

Thursday night football brings us to Atlanta for a matchup between the New England Patriots (6-4) and Atlanta Falcons (4-5).  The Patriots are coming into this Thursday night match up riding a 4 game winning streak.  Mac Jones has really come into his own during that stretch.  The Falcons on the other hand are reeling following a brutal 43-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.  They look to get back on track tonight but the matchup for them will be super tough.

More or Less – 3.6x Payout

Matt Ryan – 251.5 Passing Yards – More

I expect the Falcons to playing from behind most of this game tonight.  And because of that, they will more than likely be forced to throw the ball a ton tonight.  If we first take a look at Ryan’s season, he’s hit 252 passing yards in all but 4 games this season.  The bad thing for us is that half of those games have come in the last 3 weeks. 

Last week was Ryan’s worst game of the season, throwing for only 117 yards and 2 picks.  He’s alternated good and back weeks over the past month.  Ryan is due for his bounce back game here.

If we switch gears and take a look at the Patriots defense we can see that it’s been 4 weeks since they gave up at least 252 passing yards.  However, it’s also been a few weeks since the Patriots have actually faced a competent QB.  Last weekend Casey Keenum took the majority of the snaps after Mayfield was hurt, the weekend before that they faced Sam Darnold. We’re not talking about MVP caliber quarterbacks. 

My gut here is telling me that Matt Ryan gets back on track and does his best to keep the Falcons in this one in front of the home crowd.  I’m going with the ‘More’.

Mac Jones – 245.5 Passing Yards – Less

While the Falcons defense against the pass has been atrocious this year, I just don’t think the Mac Jones will need to throw the ball enough tonight to get to his target of 246 yards.  If we look at this Jones season as a whole he’s only reached this number 4 times.  During their 4 game winning streak he’s only reached 246 once and that was against the Jets 4 weeks ago. 

The Patriots should be up early in this one and if they are I can see them just funneling the ball to Stevenson the majority of the game.  He had a breakout game last weekend and if this one gets out of hand, he’ll have a chance to replicate his productivity from last weekend.  I’m going w/ the ‘Less’ on Mac Jones. 

Rapid Fire – 3x Payout

Matt Ryan vs. Mac Jones (+6.5)

In the more or less section I’ve highlighted my thoughts on both quarterbacks tonight.  My gut is telling me we’re going to see very different playbooks from both teams tonight.  Ryan will be forced to throw the ball often tonight while Mac Jones and his teammates should be up most of the game and will rely on the run.  In the end, Ryan should get at least 6.5 more passing yards than Mac Jones.

Kyle Pitts vs. Jakobi Meyers (+10.5)

This is a tougher one to pick.  If the Falcons have any hope of winning this one, or just keeping it close they’re going to need to the tandem of Ryan and Pitts to be productive.  The volume for Pitts has been there as he’s been targeted at least 6 times in his last 8 games.  That said, the last few weeks haven’t been the greatest for Pitts as he’s failed to reach 100 receiving yards in each of the last 3 weeks. 

The matchup tonight screams that Pitts will struggle.  The Patriots have been one of the best teams against tight ends all season.  They’ve given up more than 55 yards receiving to tight ends just once this season.  While Pitts isn’t a normal tight end, I do think tonight will be a struggle for him against a solid Patriots defense.  

In Meyers we’re dealing with someone who has been pretty consistent for the most part this season.  What we can expect tonight from Meyers is 45-50 yards receiving.  If we tack on the additional 10.5 bonus we can expect him to get near 60 yards tonight.  With my expectation that Pitts will struggle tonight, the extra 10.5 yards that Meyers will get tonight has me picking him in this match up.  Meyers for the win tonight. 

Good Luck tonight and hope to see you cash!

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Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 3rd of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints:

2020 Record: 12-4

Head Coach: Sean Payton

Offensive Coordinator: Pete Carmichael

Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Allen

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints


When it comes to the Saints for the 2021 season we all have the same question: Will it be Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill behind center as the replacement for future Hall of Famer Drew Brees? I am going to try my best to parse through this very difficult scenario, but when drafting any of the offensive players this needs to be at the forefront of your mind. I love the visual representation that this heat map provides.

We all know by now that Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael are among the most creative coaches when it comes to their play calling and in some cases too creative. The offensive line will be once again a top-eight unit led by tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk and the same offensive weapons Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, TreQuan Smith, and a healthy Michael Thomas. The only “key” offensive talent gone from last season is Jared Cook who managed 504 yards and seven touchdowns on only 37 receptions.

The defensive unit was top three in both offense and defense in terms of DVOA in 2020 but they lost Janoris Jenkins, Kwon Alexander, Sheldon Rankins, and Trey Hendrickson. They did what they could to address these losses by drafting defensive end Payton Turner, linebacker Pete Werner, and cornerback Paulson Adebo in the first three rounds. They should still be a very solid defensive unit overall but I am expecting at least a little regression in the early part of the season while the rookies get up to speed so that is something to keep an eye on if you are still playing seasonal leagues with team defenses.


Offense: Run heavy with short passing routes (slants, outs, screens), read option with Hill. Traditional 12 and 21 personnel with more downfield routes (post, flys, deep crosses) with Winston.

Defense: 4-3 Base, 2 High Safeties, Heavy Blitz on 3rd Down with Cover 1

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Fantasy Targets:


The Thomas injury changes the landscape

Alvin Kamara: ADP 3.6

If Taysom Hill ends up being the starting QB or if it even looks like it is leaning that way there is no way that I am taking Kamara at 3-4 overall. I honestly don’t even know if I would take him in the first round. Before you grab your pitchforks hear me out. In the 11 games where Brees was at QB Kamara averaged 12.45 carries for 63.18 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns which is not far off from the 15.5 attempts, 59.25 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The problem is Kamara’s receiving upside or lack thereof. With Hill, he caught 10 passes for 12.75 yards per game and no touchdowns while with Brees running things he averaged 6.63 catches, 64.1 yards per game, and five touchdowns. Basically, the short passing game that a traditional QB will use (like Winston) is replaced with the read option in Sean Payton’s play calling and that the single most important part of Alvin’s game from a fantasy viewpoint.

Much Shorter with Famous Jameis. He will push the ball downfield more than any of us have seen from the Saints in ages but Winston does not run much. If he wants the starting job he will have to be smarter with the ball and utilize the check-downs as so many of his turnovers came from the choice to extend plays beyond where he should have resulted in interceptions or fumbles. Kamara in this instance is appropriately priced around the third or fourth overall selection.

Michael Thomas: ADP 30.6 NEW ADP (Post Injury): 68.00 (97.00 Max)

We have a very small sample with the new ADP for Michael Thomas post ankle surgery news. I wish we would have known about this surgery happening so late but we work with what we’ve got. The best thing that I can do is read the tea leaves and tell you where I stand. Hint, not optimistic.

First, the surgery. We all know he had a high ankle sprain in week one of 2020. The thing that we didn’t necessarily know was that in addition to that he had a tear of the ankle deltoid ligament. What is baffling is that the only option for that tear is surgery. Rest does not help. He knew this through the entire 2020 season and offseason and chose to try rehab only and now here we are. He spent almost a full year with scarring in that ankle to go along with a potential lack of blood flow to the surrounding tissue possibly creating other problems that have not yet surfaced.

I said all of that to say all of this. I can not recommend Thomas anywhere on my board. We know the injury but we have no clue what further damage has taken place outside of this tear. There is no promise he will even see the field. The ankle is complicated medically and for the long-term health of Thomas, the Saints may choose to shut him down. I would rather take a chance on a WR2/WR3 that I know will see the field at the 80-90 ADP I see him settling at.

I love Thomas regardless of who is at quarterback and I am getting him anywhere I can. He is the only real passing option on that team and even injured he played incredibly well while Taysom was on the field. The one thing Brees and Hill have in common is they know to target Thomas early and often. In four starts Thomas was targeted 37 times, catching 30 of them for 343 yards. he gets a slight hit in touchdown equity due to the run heavy approach with Taysom but the zero TD’s was in part a fluke. If you extrapolate out to a full season I would expect to see between 1400-1500 yards and anywhere between 5-7 touchdowns for a back half of the third round pick.

If Jameis wins the job I would not be at all surprised if Thomas finished the season as the overall WR1. It is easy to forget but once upon a time Brees threw the ball downfield. In 2018 Drew Brees was 6th in the NFL in yards per attempt and in that season Michael Thomas caught 125 passes for 1405 yards and nine touchdowns. He had one injury-riddled season with what was essentially running back at QB and people are ready to write him off. I do not get this.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

Latavius Murray: ADP 140.43

Murray is a guy that I would love to have on my roster as a standalone player if we get any kind of confirmation of Hill winning the job. Murray is the more traditional back and they used him much more effectively during the stretch when Hill was starting. in weeks 10 and 11 he carried the ball 31 times for 5.58 YPA, 173 yards, and two touchdowns. If the Saints choose to go with the run first option I can see Murray getting 12 or so touches per game to ensure they do not get Kamara hurt playing an inside run game that he really isn’t known for.

Adam Trautman: 166.3

I know I am sounding like a broken record but full fade with Hill at QB. If we get Winston Trautman is an interesting 15th round target for a tight end. I am probably not going to get much of him on the roster just due to the unsure nature of what is going on but Winston threw to his tight-ends a lot in Tampa, especially in the RedZone. For example, in 2018 between OJ Howard and Cameron Brate they accounted for 854 yards and 7 TD’s, 770 yards and 5 TD’s in 2019, and 1,023 yards and 12 TD’s in 2017. As I said, I am probably not going here but the case can certainly be made to take a share or two when it makes sense.

Jameis Winston: ADP 169.4

I’m going to keep both Hill and Winston quick. Both of their ADPs are great and the upside that they both provide in their way is well beyond how they are being drafted. If you want to draft both and stash one until we get some clarity on the situation that would be a solid late-round approach. For those of you with a short memory, Winston was a high-end QB1 before coming to New Orleans. Looking at the two Jameis has a much higher ceiling in my opinion. Just be prepared to see a ton of turnovers.

Taysom Hill: ADP 207

See above, slightly less upside.

Tre’Quan Smith: ADP 213.3 (New ADP after Thomas Injury): 149.00

Smith lands as the de-facto WR1 unless we hear otherwise or there is an acquisition. Even with the five round bump in ADP so long as we have Winston throwing the ball I am comfortable with the new average draft position. The reasons I liked him have not changed. Winston can make use of his speed in a way that Brees never could and he could be on his way to a breakout in 2021.

Only recommended as a late-round flier if Winston is throwing the ball. You can get him in the last round and they will need a number two receiver. Smith can get down the field in a hurry and has shown flashes of what could be but Brees just did not have the arm strength to utilize him. Winston will not have that problem. Smith had an 85.6% route participation percentage and typically saw an 80+percent snap share on a team that almost exclusively ran two and three-wide sets. you can get him in round 20 all day right now.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

Final Thoughts:

The only thing that I am fairly certain of is that they will be a good team this year. How good? I have no clue. They will have a solid defense but I have no clear read on this team without knowing who will be under center. I like the defense a little more with Hill under center from a defensive perspective but the upside is so much higher offensively with Jameis throwing it. Hopefully, we will get clarity early in training camp in which case I will adjust my projection appropriately.

Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 2nd of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers:

2020 Record: 5-11

Head Coach: Matt Rhule

Offensive Coordinator: Joe Brady

Defensive Coordinator: Phil Snow

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers


The NFC South is shaping up to be a really interesting start to the post draft fantasy breakdowns just due to the combination of coaching changes, signings, drafts, and comeback scenarios. The Carolina Panthers are staying put from the coaching side but they rescued brought in Sam Darnold from the Jets this season and one thing that we have seen consistently is that players tend to do better when they get away from Adam Gase.

Knowing how Joe Brady ran his offenses in previous seasons one thing is clear. Teddy Bridgewater severely handcuffed him in terms of how deep he could go into the playbook. If you are unaware he was the offensive mastermind for LSU in the late 2010s. He wants to air it out and if you look at this heat map image you can see how even Drew Brees targeted receivers further downfield than Bridgewater. Now look at how Sam Darnold brings the ability to push the ball downfield compared to both and you know what Brady aiming for.

The question is: Will the offensive line be able to protect better this year? The Panthers ended the season as the 31st ranked offensive line. With players like Cam Irving, and Pat Efflein joining the team from the Cowboys and Jets, and the return of John Miller, Matt Paradis, and Taylor Morton I expect the line will be much improved. This will allow Robby Anderson and DJ Moore much more time to get down the field. It also helps that Run CMC is back on the field giving defensive coordinators much more to think about.


Offense: Spread Concept, Deep Passing, Hi-Low Concepts with crossing routes

Defense: 4-3 Base, Conservative, Low Blitz Rate

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Fantasy Targets:

Sam Darnold: ADP 180.1

This is the biggest question mark on the Panthers team this season. How much of Sam Darnold’s issues were on him and how much of it was caused by Adam Gase’s ineptitude? I am leaning towards Gase after seeing how players like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, and Kenyan Drake performed after leaving. If CMC stays healthy and the line improves even to mediocrity at a 17th round ADP Darnold is a near end of draft QB that I could see finishing as high as QB 14-15 with burners like Robby Anderson an DJ Moore on the outside.

Christian McCaffrey: ADP: 1.3

If he is available you take him. Simple as that. He is my 1-1.

DJ Moore: ADP 50.9

Moore is the first of the pair of wide receivers left to target for the Panthers and you can pretty much copy and paste my thoughts with him and Robby Anderson below. Moore had almost 1,200 yard on 66 grabs with a quarterback who was 28th in the NFL with 7.1 air yards per attempt, the 31st ranked O-Line in the league, no McCaffrey to make the opposing defense think, and Curtis Samuel taking away targets. I would prefer his ADP to be a touch lower but if you are sitting at the turn in the 5th round and he is still available I can not imagine what his upside could be with someone who can throw it deep.

Robby Anderson: 80.4

Robby caught 95 passes for almost 1,100 yards with a QB who threw almost all of his passes at the line of scrimmage as the teams number two receiver. I already mentioned above the litany of issues on the offensive side of the ball that dampened the production for both him and Moore. I personally like Anderson’s ADP much better. I think his upside is just a touch lower than Moore, but I am splitting hairs in that regard (maybe 100 yards and a td or two) and you can get him as your wide receiver three or four depending on how early you have a tendency to draft tight-end. In a 17 game season in a competent offense I wouldn’t be shocked if Anderson ended a healthy 2021 campaign with 1300-1400 yards and well over 100 grabs.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Carolina Panthers

Final Thoughts:

I truly think Carolina will be a much better football team this year even if the win-loss record doesn’t show it. The Saints are still a really strong team without Brees and they have to plays the Bucs and their top defensive unit twice and having the Patriots, Washington, and Dolphins on the schedule is not doing them any favors. Joe Brady is a very innovative offensive coordinator and the tendency that players have to excel away from Adam Gase is pushing me towards a sense of optimism for Sam Darnold and the Carolina panthers as a whole.

Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 1st of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons:

2020 Record: 4-12

Coaching Changes

Arthur Smith: New Head Coach/Offensive Coordinator/Play Caller (Titans)

Dean Pees: Defensive Coordinator (Titans)

Offense: West Coast, Zone Run, Play-Action, 2 Tight-Ends

Defense: Multiple Base Packages, Heavy Blitz. Aggressive

Fantasy Targets (By National Fantasy Championship ADP): Calvin Ridley (22.15), *Julio Jones (46.99), Kyle Pitts (86.53), Matt Ryan (88.23), Mike Davis (104.67), Hayden Hurst (167.81), Russel Gage (177.70)

*Denotes Potential Trade

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons


The first NFL team that we will be covering is the Altana Falcons and they are an interesting team from a real-world and fantasy perspective, so I am excited to lead off with these guys. Not only did they poach the Titans offensive and defensive coordinators in Arthur Smith and Den Pees, but it looks like a guarantee that Julio Jones will be going elsewhere so we have a lot to talk about. My very broad overview is that we will see a much more balanced offensive game plan with a ton of two tight-end sets, play action, and zone run concepts and while I do expect an improvement defensively, I still don’t know to what extent. I do know that Pees came out of retirement just to coach these guys up and he was the man behind the 2007 Patriots Defense and the 2012 Ravens Defense (Both Super Bowl Champions) and loves pressure which is something that the Falcons have been terrible at over the last several seasons. Let us take a deeper look below in Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons.

When it comes to coaching changes it can sometimes be a little tricky figuring out how they will translate to new organizations. I do not think that is going to be an issue for me here. By a wide margin I watched more coach’s films on the Titans than any other team in 2020 so I feel confident in my early assessment here.



If you go back to the film, you will see a few things that are prevalent in Arthur Smith’s offense in 2020. They rely heavily on the zone run, play-action, bootlegs, and 2 tight end sets or “12” personnel group. Not only did they lead the league in multiple tight end sets (35% 1 RB 2 TE “12”, 4% 2 RB 2 TE, 9% 1 RB 3 TE) with 48% of their offensive plays having at least two tight-ends but they ran the fewest plays BY FAR involving packages with at least 3 wide receivers (38% 1 TE 3 WR, 2% 0 TE 3 WR) totaling 40% of their snaps. There were a few packages combined with 3 or more WR but they did not even reach a percent, so I am leaving them out.

The Titans were also a very deliberate team averaging only 63.5 offensive plays per game which put them at 22nd slowest although, in situations where they needed to pick up the pace, they were able to do so finishing 3rd in pace at 25 seconds per play in situations where they were tied or losing and Matt Ryan has played almost his entire career in fast paced situations so while I think he wants to Davis wants to slow things down a bit I know that Falcons roster is well adjusted to playing at that faster pace.


Dean Pees has chosen to come out of retirement to coach this Falcons defense and while they have not been good and I am being very generous, they are very young and they were the most injured defense in the NFL. So much so that they had several weeks where the entire secondary and I mean all safeties and cornerbacks both starter and backup came from practice squads or the house. He has no specific base package. He runs 3-4 and 4-3 depending on the situation. The one thing that is constant with Pees is pressure. It doesn’t always show in the numbers as with the Titans over the last several years, the Ravens in the mid-2010s, and the Patriots in the mid-late 2000s his defense has finished middle of the road but he runs a very opportunistic style that comes up big in big moments. And he has been called a Super Bowl champion, twice because of it.

So, what does this mean? Let us answer the easier question first. Do we expect a ton of scenarios where the Falcons will be ahead and therefore be able to slow down the pace? No? Good. Glad to see we are on the same page there. So since we can expect plenty of offensive opportunities it is time for the tougher question. Who will be the main beneficiaries of the new offensive scheme? We will be having this conversation assuming there is no Julio. If he stays and says he will play, adjust Gage accordingly although I do not think you really should as you will see below.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons

Fantasy Targets:

Matt Ryan:

Matty Ice has been a guy that you can consistently count on year in and year out to give you a good floor/ceiling combination for a great value. Last year, which many consider his worst showing since his rookie year Ryan still delivered 4,581 yards passing, led the league in completions with 407, threw 26 TDs and 11 picks. He did that while being sacked 41 times (4th worst), and only having 2.87 seconds to throw, which was less time than Patrick Mahomes (2.89) got when we were giving him a pass last season. While they will not get nearly as many plays off this season with Smith likely slowing down the tempo, they will be running a lot of two and three tight end sets, bootlegging to get him away from pressure and using a lot of play-action to give him just a bit more time to throw. Expect his air yards to go down as he dumps off to Mike Davis, Hayden Hurst, and Kyle Pitts a ton but the YAC will undoubtedly go up with the scheming that HC/OC Arthur Davis will put in place, at least if the Titans results are any indication. I still think he is a fantastic value as the 14th QB off the board.

Calvin Ridley:

Beast. Moving on. OK fine, I will say something. I pretty much expected Ridley to supplant Julio last year and drafted as such. Calvin was on pretty much every fantasy team I drafted last year and the 1374 yards and 9 TDs in 15 games including a couple of games where he was injured and limited proved me right. Now we get him without Julio in an offense that will still be using play-action but in a way, I feel will be much more effective and his late second/early third ADP is honestly a bit low. I get it though, I have been in several mock drafts, and on numerous occasions, I have seen no receivers go in the first round. With a 17-game season, I would not be at all shocked to see this guy easily eclipse 1500 yards and double-digit TDs.

Mike Davis:

Mike Davis took full advantage of his opportunity when CMC went down and had he started all 16 games he would have finished with around 900 yards rushing, 550 yards receiving with around 70 receptions, and 10 TDs. At 5’9” 220-230 pounds he did extremely well in the spread-style offense that lends itself to smaller, quicker backs like McCaffrey. The zone run concepts that I am expecting Atlanta to implement fit him much, much better. He’s not the fastest guy in the world (4.61 40 yard) so a single cut, get downhill, inside zone will lead to improved run stats and we all saw how great his hands are. A little something else to consider is that everyone knew that the Panthers were not going to push more than they needed to downfield leading to 32.73% of his snaps seeing 8 or more in the box (7th most among ALL running backs). In contrast, Todd Gurley saw only 21.54% 8+ man boxes. If we split the difference and he sees a drop down to 26% with zone concepts he should have plenty more room to run.

Kyle Pitts:

Beast #2??? Whatever, you drive a hard bargain I guess. Kyle Pitts might break every single rookie tight end record in the NFL. The talking heads all told you how good he is and considering the Falcons took him fourth overall they feel that way too. He is fast, sure-handed, and is just as capable as a receiver as he is a tight end. I kind of hinted at it at the top when talking about the scheme but Davis loves leaning on his tight ends. We know Jonnu Smith had a big year with 40 catches for 448 yards and eight touchdowns but did you know that even Anthony Firkser was able to have a few good games including an 8 catch 113 yards 1 TD game. Not nearly as huge but a backup tight end with 39 grabs, 387 yards, and a TD is more than you would expect in this day and age of a thin tight end pool. I’m saying all of that to say this. If Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser can do that on a team with a 2,000-yard rusher in Derrick Henry and two 1000 yard receivers in AJ Brown and Corey Davis what do you think the ceiling is for a man with his physical gifts with no Julio Jones and Mike Davis as the primary ball carrier?

Hayden Hurst:

Love him as a late-round flier. Everyone has written Hurst off because the Falcons didn’t pick up his 5th-year option but he had a career year with 56 grabs for 571 yards and six TDs. How is Jonnu getting praise heaped on him with similar numbers and Hunter Henry to compete with targets with from a far less accurate QB and an offense that was hot garbage? I mean Jonnu’s ADP is 33 (134) spots higher and Hunter Henry (117) is 60 spots higher??? Do people think Cam Newton or a rookie QB Mac Jones is going to do better than a QB who averages a 65% completion percentage over his career? The Falcons will likely run almost exclusively two tight end sets and he is an afterthought. Do yourself a favor, If you are nervous about Pitts as a rookie you can get Hurst at next to nothing and benefit from people not realizing what the Falcons will do this year.

Russel Gage:

You better take him NOW before Julio moves. As the de-facto number two wide receiver for the Falcons, Russel Gage will be closer to 100 ADP than 180 once Jones’s move is official. And by the way, last season Gage had 41 more targets than Julio last year. Look it up. 68 to 109 targets in 2020. What do you think he will have without Jones in the mix drawing away targets in key situations?

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons

Final Thoughts:

This is shaping up to be one of the more interesting teams in the early going of this NFL offseason. Between the coaching changes, style changes, big names potentially out, and future superstars potentially coming in they are shaping up to be a pretty competitive team in a division where Tom Brady is a year older, where Drew Brees will either be replaced by a 30-year-old hybrid player in Taysom Hill or the most turnover-prone quarterback in NFL history in Jameis Winston, and a Panthers franchise who just rescued Sam Darnold from Adam Gase. I’m not saying they turn the whole thing around in a single season but the NFC South is notoriously fickle so who knows what kind of craziness we will run into this year.

Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Week Six was incredible for the Win Daily Team – and personally my best ROI so far on the season. Hopefully you checked out the stacks in last week’s post and got your NFL DFS GPP lineups across the pay-line. Our top two game stacks went off and we had some sneaky production out of Devonta Freeman and Carlos Hyde at very low ownership.

If you read the article and have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter or sign up for Premium Gold to join our Slack channel.

Like usual, it’s another great week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out my Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday. Lets get to work on Stick’s Stacks for Week Seven.

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The purpose of this weekly article is to identify team/game stacks that we are going to use for an NFL DFS GPP. For those of you that don’t know, a “team stack” is simply multiple players from the same team (I rarely ever use more than three players on a given team).

A “game stack” is similar, except we are going to use players from both teams in a given game. Focusing on team stacks and game stacks is incredibly useful in the NFL DFS GPP environment. That being said, let’s get to this week’s top NFL DFS stacks for DraftKings!

Top NFL DFS GPP Game Stacks

Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons (54)

This game’s total just keeps climbing and I wouldn’t be surprised if it closes around 56 points… which is quite high. This is by far my favorite game to attack and as of now, will be the heart and soul of my main GPP lineups. Although I still respect the Rams’ defense, we always love Matt Ryan at home and Los Angeles just lost one of their better corners, Aqib Talib, for quite some time (they also just acquired Jalen Ramsey and traded Marcus Peters).

Long story short, I’m most likely going to be super overweight with my exposure to this game and I think you should be too. I’ll update this article once I have a better grasp on ownership projections but I highly doubt I’ll find any reason to fade this game. As of now, this is the only true “game stack” I’m personally investing in.

Los Angeles Rams

  • Jared Goff ($6,200) – My favorite QB play on the slate.
  • Cooper Kupp ($7,400) – Smash matchup assuming he sees a lot of Damontae Kazee in the slot.
  • Brandin Cooks ($5,400) – I’m assuming he’ll be less than 10% owned which is a nice pivot away from Kupp/Woods who will be higher owned. I may pair Cooks with Kupp or Woods in my main lineup. Kendall Sheffield is insanely fast (just like Cooks), but is brutal in coverage. Cooks blowup day coming.
  • Robert Woods ($5,900) – Great price, great matchup.
  • Gerald Everett ($3,700) – Everyone who stacks this game is going to play Austin Hooper. Excellent pivot play with low ownership projected.
  • Todd Gurley ($6,400) – No interest in Malcolm Brown ($5,700) at his price. If Gurley sits and Brown is “limited”, Darrell Henderson ($3,500) becomes a free square lock.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Julio Jones ($8,000) – My guess is it will be a mix of Troy Hill and Jalen Ramsey tasked with covering Julio Jones. Ramsey is arguably the top cornerback in the NFL but Jones is one of the best receivers in the NFL. Assuming this lowers Julio Jones’ ownership a bit, I’m all for getting shares of him.
  • Matt Ryan ($6,300)
  • Calvin Ridley ($5,300) – Incredible route runner. Will also see a mix of Troy Hill and Jalen Ramsey. Ridley can burn them both.
  • Austin Hooper ($5,300) – Chalk, chalk, chalk. Love him in cash, like him in GPPs, but he will come with very high ownership(rightfully so).
  • Devonta Freeman ($5,400) – Great price, but this Rams’ defense is stout against the run. If we roll out Freeman, we are hoping that he scores two touchdowns and catches four or more passes (which is entirely possible). I don’t see him being over 100 all-purpose yards, but he should be low-owned.
  • Mohamed Sanu ($4,600) – Cheap exposure to the highest scoring game on the slate. He makes perfect sense for salary relief in a game stack lineup but his ceiling is limited.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (47)

I don’t really like to stack this game up at all, but I will diversify my exposure a little bit as I cant go 100% all in with LAR/ATL… or can I?

The Texans currently sit with an implied team total of only 23 points and they just lost rookie right tackle, Tytus Howard, for multiple games. I usually only like Watson and company when they have time to make plays (which will be limited without Howard) but there aren’t many other options for us this week.

With Watson’s rushing ability and Houston’s receivers playmaking abilities, I’ll stack them up if they’re going to be low-owned. I’ll update the article later in the week if I fall out of love with Houston’s offense in Week Seven for my NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Houston Texans

  • Deshaun Watson ($7,000)
  • DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800)
  • Will Fuller ($6,200)
  • Keke Coutee ($3,600) – Excellent punt play if you need a salary relief player in any DFS build this week.

Indianapolis Colts

Houston’s defense is banged up across the board. I don’t think this game is likely to shoot-out, but I will have some exposure to both teams just in case. Houston allows the most receptions to opposing running backs, so it’s a nice spot for Marlon Mack (even though he rarely runs six plus routes in a game).

I really only included this matchup as a game stack due to the Colts’ low pricing. Rostering a few high-upside Colts’ players and maybe stacking them with one of the Houston receivers should lead to a very nice roster build.

  • T.Y. Hilton ($5,900)
  • Jacoby Brissett ($5,600)
  • Marlon Mack ($6,000)
  • Colts Defense ($2,000) – So cheap and should be in a nice spot to get three or more sacks. Great for a GPP.

Top NFL DFS GPP Team Stacks

Green Bay Packers

I’ll only stack the Packers if Davante Adams is in. I’m not concerned with Marquez Valdes-Scantling or anyone really in this timeshare at the running back position. This is an Oakland team that really struggles to defend the pass, so if Rodgers has healthy weapons, we can take advantage of that.

I’ll update this section when we hear more about Adams’ status.

  • Aaron Rodgers ($6,400)
  • Davante Adams ($7,600)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,200) – Seemed to be injured on Sunday Night but everything I’m hearing says it’s not a concern.
  • Allen Lazard ($3,000) – Incredible value if Adams and/or Valdes-Scantling were to miss this game.
  • Jimmy Graham ($4,200) – Hate the price. Would only use if it’s part of a MME style of NFL DFS GPP… Same with these Packers’ running backs.

Arizona Cardinals

I’ll always stack the Cardinals if they’re facing a weaker defensive opponent. I’m starting to respect the Giants’ defense more and more each week (I’m not really sure why) but I will have a few Cardinals stacks out there in Week Seven.

  • Kyler Murray ($6,700)
  • David Johnson ($7,800)
  • Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100) – I’ve mentioned in the cash game writeup how I am seriously concerned with Fitzgerald’s ceiling, but he’s a lock for double-digit points. We need him to score touchdowns if we’re going to climb up the GPP leaderboards.
  • Christian Kirk ($5,000) – Optimistic that he finally returns to action in Week Seven.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Absolute punt of a stack. If you need some salary relief for other studs, I am really liking the idea of a Minshew-Chark-Fournette Jaguars stack. Just load up on some Rams/Falcons playmakers with those three (or just Fournette) and enjoy a mild pay-day.

  • Leonard Fournette ($7,000) – My top RB on the slate.
  • Gardner Minshew ($5,400)
  • D.J. Chark ($6,000)

Buffalo Bills

They currently have the highest implied team total on the slate so you cannot ignore them. Personally, I’m thinking this is a nice spot to fade. I can only hope this team draws a lot of ownership in DFS and justifies a fade, but I’m not sure that will be the case.

They are without a doubt in a smash spot. The 16-point spread has me thinking this is a run-heavy offense coming from Buffalo. Maybe Josh Allen and these receivers do some severe damage early and still put up a big fantasy output.

  • Josh Allen ($6,500)
  • John Brown ($5,500) – $500 cheaper than Terry McLaurin was last week… Brown can 100% replicate the monster game McLaurin just posted on this Miami secondary.
  • Duke Williams ($4,100)
  • Frank Gore ($5,200)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Jared Goff
RB: Leonard Fournette
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Robert Woods
WR: Brandin Cooks
WR: Calvin Ridley
TE: T.J. Hockenson
FLEX: Chris Carson
DST: Indianapolis Colts

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Perhaps the Week 7 DFS QB Picks will be more fruitful than last week, especially for those who got burned by Patrick Mahomes. There’s also us darned fools who underestimated Kirk Cousins (but didn’t call him a “weak link”), and for those who went with Jared Goff, well, we told ya.

As usual, the main slate’s the focus, so nuts to Chiefs-Broncos (Thursday night), Eagles-Cowboys (Sunday night) and Patriots-Jets (Monday night). The bye week also means no Browns, Buccaneers (Thank God), Panthers and Steelers.

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Week 7 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. LAR

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,900) 

One could make a case of putting Ryan ahead of Watson, but Ryan isn’t remotely close to being the running threat that Watson is. Still, Ryan leads the league in both actual (2,011) and air (1,233) yards and will have a chance to light up a Rams defense that may not be up to the task of playing a track meet-style of contest that Atlanta will attempt to force.

The Rams are allowing 11.6 yards per catch, a total that could go higher now that Austin Hooper is a legit TE1 that can open the field for Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, two of the best run after the catch receivers in the game. Ryan is a still a value play, especially for someone attempting 43 passes per contest. You can’t be faulted for going with Ryan instead of Watson and using the savings elsewhere.

2) Kyler Murray, ARI @ NYG

DK ($6,700), FD ($7,700) 

The Giants are 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, making this a solid play on the undervalued Murray. He’s progressed over the past two weeks, completing 68.1% of his passes while raising his rating from 78.8 to 109.1 in October. The O-line is showing considerable improvement, as Murray has been sacked just one in his last 69 attempts.

Murray is now in the Top 10 in air yards (eighth, 934) and if Christian Kirk returns soon, he’ll go higher. Momentum is on Murray’s side and he’s worth the play with his current value.

3) Gardner Minshew II, JAC @ CIN

DK ($5,400), FD ($6,900) 

A bigger bargain than Murray, Minshew will be under the radar because of his tepid performance against a suspect Saints secondary last week. My only concern here is that with the Bengals ranked dead last in run defense, this could open the door for a monster afternoon for Leonard Fournette.

Minshew doesn’t do anything spectacular, yet he does have a 9-2 TD:INT margin and a lower bad throw completion rate (16.5%) than the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco. Even if he gets 25-28 attempts, he’ll be efficient enough to rack up points.

4) Josh Allen, BUF vs. MIA

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,700) 

There’s plenty of work to make Allen Fantasy-viable on a consistent basis, but I like the fact he’s 27th in bad throw percentage at 14.1%. Allen is 12th in average depth of target at 8.7 and I’m enthused about the prospects of former CFL All-Star Duke Williams becoming more involved in the offense. The Dolphins are very QB-friendly, so take advantage of the one time Allen appears here.

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Week 7 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Lamar Jackson, BAL @ SEA

DK ($6,800), FD ($8,400) 

With each week, Jackson falls down the rankings in bad throw percentage, and that’s a good thing. The Seahawks allow 277.8 passing yards per contest, making Jackson’s 9.4 average depth per target more tempting to use. He finally had that game rushing against the Bengals, and while it’s too much (perhaps) to expect a similar effort, let’s be mindful of the fact that Seattle does allow 4.7 yards per carry.

2) Deshaun Watson, HOU @ IND

DK ($7,000), FD ($8,300) 

Watson is on pace to account for 43 touchdowns, including 11 on the ground. That alone puts him in this category, but as good as he was in September, he’s downright lethal in October. He’s completed a staggering 77.3% of his passes with a 9.4 yards per attempt while accounting for eight scores (two rushing).

Sixth in average depth of target (9.6), Watson gets a Colts defense that 22 completions, 260 yards and two touchdowns per game. Indy must also be mindful that Watson averages 7.9 yards per scramble and that we haven’t seen a monster game from DeAndre Hopkins. Yet.

3) Jared Goff, LAR @ ATL

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800) 

The fleas from the dog Goff had on Sunday will linger for some, but it’s indoors and the Falcons’ secondary has let Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray look Canton-worthy the past two weeks. Atlanta has the third-worst defense against QBs Fantasy-wise, and if Goff can survive the Falcons blitzing him to no end (opponents average more than 14 blitzes per game on him), he has a chance to rebound nicely.

4) Kirk Cousins, MIN @ DET

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800) 

To hell with ball control. Let Cousins fling the damn ball, because it’s working. He’s gone from an average of 7.4 yards per attempt in September to 11.4 YPA in his two October games while completing 78.6% of his passes. Cousins is now in the Top 10 in air yards per pass attempt (4.4) after languishing in the mid 3s last month. The Lions allow 291.6 passing yards per game but are limiting passers to 1.2 TD tosses per. He’ll get the yards but I also think he’ll get the TDs, especially if they get TE Kyle Rudolph back into the flow.

5) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. BAL

DK ($6,600), FD ($8,500) 

Unlike many, I’m not enamored with this matchup. Yes, the Ravens are 29th overall against the pass. However, they’re 10th overall in Fantasy because they don’t allow touchdowns. B-More is allowing a TD pass per game on average, and QBs are averaging a mere 7.3 yards on the ground. Wilson is going to miss TE Will Dissly (Achilles, done for 2019), especially near the red zone, so it’s going to come down to whether WRs Jaron Brown and DK.Metcalf can fill in from the 4-6 targets per game that were going to Dissly.

6) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. OAK

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,600) 

In a Sentence: Everything hinges on Davante Adams’ toe.

7) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. HOU

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,300) 

In a Sentence: For all the giddy feelings about the Texans following their win over the Chiefs, the defense is still 27th in Fantasy against opposing QBs.

8) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. MIN

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,300) 

In a Sentence: Only Jameis Winston has a better air yards per pass completion mark than Stafford’s 8.2.

9) Philip Rivers, LAC at TEN

DK ($5,500), FD ($7,600) 

In a Sentence: He’s second to Patrick Mahomes in passing yards after the catch (825).

10) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF @ WAS

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500) 

In a Sentence: The Redskins allow 2.3 TD passes per game, and we have yet to see a monster game from Garoppolo….just sayin’.

Week 7 DFS QB Picks – Punt & Value Passers

1) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. ARI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,200) 

In a Sentence: The Cardinals are the worst Fantasy defense against opposing QBs, making Jones an interesting punt who becomes very intriguing if Evan Engram is available.

2) Teddy Bridgewater, NO @ CHI

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,000) 

In a Sentence: The Bears allow 0.8 TD passes per game; if Bridgewater is the answer here, I sure as hell don’t want to know the question.

3) Andy Dalton, CIN vs. JAX

DK ($5,400), FD ($6,900) 

In a Sentence: On average, Dalton is blitzed 16.1 times per game, which means you may need a spatula to scrape him off the field.

4) Case Keenum, WAS vs. SF

DK ($4,600), FD ($6,500) 

In a Sentence: I’d put good money that you’ll see Dwayne Haskins at some point.

5) Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA @ BUF

DK ($4,500), FD ($6,400) 

In a Sentence: The Bills are one of three teams (Patriots, 49ers) allowing fewer than 10 Fantasy points per game against opposing passers, so good luck with that, Ryan.

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