Atlanta Falcons

Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 3rd of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints:

2020 Record: 12-4

Head Coach: Sean Payton

Offensive Coordinator: Pete Carmichael

Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Allen

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

Overview:

When it comes to the Saints for the 2021 season we all have the same question: Will it be Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill behind center as the replacement for future Hall of Famer Drew Brees? I am going to try my best to parse through this very difficult scenario, but when drafting any of the offensive players this needs to be at the forefront of your mind. I love the visual representation that this heat map provides.

We all know by now that Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael are among the most creative coaches when it comes to their play calling and in some cases too creative. The offensive line will be once again a top-eight unit led by tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk and the same offensive weapons Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, TreQuan Smith, and a healthy Michael Thomas. The only “key” offensive talent gone from last season is Jared Cook who managed 504 yards and seven touchdowns on only 37 receptions.

The defensive unit was top three in both offense and defense in terms of DVOA in 2020 but they lost Janoris Jenkins, Kwon Alexander, Sheldon Rankins, and Trey Hendrickson. They did what they could to address these losses by drafting defensive end Payton Turner, linebacker Pete Werner, and cornerback Paulson Adebo in the first three rounds. They should still be a very solid defensive unit overall but I am expecting at least a little regression in the early part of the season while the rookies get up to speed so that is something to keep an eye on if you are still playing seasonal leagues with team defenses.

Scheme

Offense: Run heavy with short passing routes (slants, outs, screens), read option with Hill. Traditional 12 and 21 personnel with more downfield routes (post, flys, deep crosses) with Winston.

Defense: 4-3 Base, 2 High Safeties, Heavy Blitz on 3rd Down with Cover 1

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Fantasy Targets:

***IMPORTANT UPDATE***

The Thomas injury changes the landscape

Alvin Kamara: ADP 3.6

If Taysom Hill ends up being the starting QB or if it even looks like it is leaning that way there is no way that I am taking Kamara at 3-4 overall. I honestly don’t even know if I would take him in the first round. Before you grab your pitchforks hear me out. In the 11 games where Brees was at QB Kamara averaged 12.45 carries for 63.18 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns which is not far off from the 15.5 attempts, 59.25 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The problem is Kamara’s receiving upside or lack thereof. With Hill, he caught 10 passes for 12.75 yards per game and no touchdowns while with Brees running things he averaged 6.63 catches, 64.1 yards per game, and five touchdowns. Basically, the short passing game that a traditional QB will use (like Winston) is replaced with the read option in Sean Payton’s play calling and that the single most important part of Alvin’s game from a fantasy viewpoint.

Much Shorter with Famous Jameis. He will push the ball downfield more than any of us have seen from the Saints in ages but Winston does not run much. If he wants the starting job he will have to be smarter with the ball and utilize the check-downs as so many of his turnovers came from the choice to extend plays beyond where he should have resulted in interceptions or fumbles. Kamara in this instance is appropriately priced around the third or fourth overall selection.

Michael Thomas: ADP 30.6 NEW ADP (Post Injury): 68.00 (97.00 Max)

We have a very small sample with the new ADP for Michael Thomas post ankle surgery news. I wish we would have known about this surgery happening so late but we work with what we’ve got. The best thing that I can do is read the tea leaves and tell you where I stand. Hint, not optimistic.

First, the surgery. We all know he had a high ankle sprain in week one of 2020. The thing that we didn’t necessarily know was that in addition to that he had a tear of the ankle deltoid ligament. What is baffling is that the only option for that tear is surgery. Rest does not help. He knew this through the entire 2020 season and offseason and chose to try rehab only and now here we are. He spent almost a full year with scarring in that ankle to go along with a potential lack of blood flow to the surrounding tissue possibly creating other problems that have not yet surfaced.

I said all of that to say all of this. I can not recommend Thomas anywhere on my board. We know the injury but we have no clue what further damage has taken place outside of this tear. There is no promise he will even see the field. The ankle is complicated medically and for the long-term health of Thomas, the Saints may choose to shut him down. I would rather take a chance on a WR2/WR3 that I know will see the field at the 80-90 ADP I see him settling at.

I love Thomas regardless of who is at quarterback and I am getting him anywhere I can. He is the only real passing option on that team and even injured he played incredibly well while Taysom was on the field. The one thing Brees and Hill have in common is they know to target Thomas early and often. In four starts Thomas was targeted 37 times, catching 30 of them for 343 yards. he gets a slight hit in touchdown equity due to the run heavy approach with Taysom but the zero TD’s was in part a fluke. If you extrapolate out to a full season I would expect to see between 1400-1500 yards and anywhere between 5-7 touchdowns for a back half of the third round pick.

If Jameis wins the job I would not be at all surprised if Thomas finished the season as the overall WR1. It is easy to forget but once upon a time Brees threw the ball downfield. In 2018 Drew Brees was 6th in the NFL in yards per attempt and in that season Michael Thomas caught 125 passes for 1405 yards and nine touchdowns. He had one injury-riddled season with what was essentially running back at QB and people are ready to write him off. I do not get this.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

Latavius Murray: ADP 140.43

Murray is a guy that I would love to have on my roster as a standalone player if we get any kind of confirmation of Hill winning the job. Murray is the more traditional back and they used him much more effectively during the stretch when Hill was starting. in weeks 10 and 11 he carried the ball 31 times for 5.58 YPA, 173 yards, and two touchdowns. If the Saints choose to go with the run first option I can see Murray getting 12 or so touches per game to ensure they do not get Kamara hurt playing an inside run game that he really isn’t known for.

Adam Trautman: 166.3

I know I am sounding like a broken record but full fade with Hill at QB. If we get Winston Trautman is an interesting 15th round target for a tight end. I am probably not going to get much of him on the roster just due to the unsure nature of what is going on but Winston threw to his tight-ends a lot in Tampa, especially in the RedZone. For example, in 2018 between OJ Howard and Cameron Brate they accounted for 854 yards and 7 TD’s, 770 yards and 5 TD’s in 2019, and 1,023 yards and 12 TD’s in 2017. As I said, I am probably not going here but the case can certainly be made to take a share or two when it makes sense.

Jameis Winston: ADP 169.4

I’m going to keep both Hill and Winston quick. Both of their ADPs are great and the upside that they both provide in their way is well beyond how they are being drafted. If you want to draft both and stash one until we get some clarity on the situation that would be a solid late-round approach. For those of you with a short memory, Winston was a high-end QB1 before coming to New Orleans. Looking at the two Jameis has a much higher ceiling in my opinion. Just be prepared to see a ton of turnovers.

Taysom Hill: ADP 207

See above, slightly less upside.

Tre’Quan Smith: ADP 213.3 (New ADP after Thomas Injury): 149.00

Smith lands as the de-facto WR1 unless we hear otherwise or there is an acquisition. Even with the five round bump in ADP so long as we have Winston throwing the ball I am comfortable with the new average draft position. The reasons I liked him have not changed. Winston can make use of his speed in a way that Brees never could and he could be on his way to a breakout in 2021.

Only recommended as a late-round flier if Winston is throwing the ball. You can get him in the last round and they will need a number two receiver. Smith can get down the field in a hurry and has shown flashes of what could be but Brees just did not have the arm strength to utilize him. Winston will not have that problem. Smith had an 85.6% route participation percentage and typically saw an 80+percent snap share on a team that almost exclusively ran two and three-wide sets. you can get him in round 20 all day right now.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints

Final Thoughts:

The only thing that I am fairly certain of is that they will be a good team this year. How good? I have no clue. They will have a solid defense but I have no clear read on this team without knowing who will be under center. I like the defense a little more with Hill under center from a defensive perspective but the upside is so much higher offensively with Jameis throwing it. Hopefully, we will get clarity early in training camp in which case I will adjust my projection appropriately.

Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: New Orleans Saints. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 2nd of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers:

2020 Record: 5-11

Head Coach: Matt Rhule

Offensive Coordinator: Joe Brady

Defensive Coordinator: Phil Snow

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Overview:

The NFC South is shaping up to be a really interesting start to the post draft fantasy breakdowns just due to the combination of coaching changes, signings, drafts, and comeback scenarios. The Carolina Panthers are staying put from the coaching side but they rescued brought in Sam Darnold from the Jets this season and one thing that we have seen consistently is that players tend to do better when they get away from Adam Gase.

Knowing how Joe Brady ran his offenses in previous seasons one thing is clear. Teddy Bridgewater severely handcuffed him in terms of how deep he could go into the playbook. If you are unaware he was the offensive mastermind for LSU in the late 2010s. He wants to air it out and if you look at this heat map image you can see how even Drew Brees targeted receivers further downfield than Bridgewater. Now look at how Sam Darnold brings the ability to push the ball downfield compared to both and you know what Brady aiming for.

The question is: Will the offensive line be able to protect better this year? The Panthers ended the season as the 31st ranked offensive line. With players like Cam Irving, and Pat Efflein joining the team from the Cowboys and Jets, and the return of John Miller, Matt Paradis, and Taylor Morton I expect the line will be much improved. This will allow Robby Anderson and DJ Moore much more time to get down the field. It also helps that Run CMC is back on the field giving defensive coordinators much more to think about.

Scheme

Offense: Spread Concept, Deep Passing, Hi-Low Concepts with crossing routes

Defense: 4-3 Base, Conservative, Low Blitz Rate

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers

Fantasy Targets:

Sam Darnold: ADP 180.1

This is the biggest question mark on the Panthers team this season. How much of Sam Darnold’s issues were on him and how much of it was caused by Adam Gase’s ineptitude? I am leaning towards Gase after seeing how players like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, and Kenyan Drake performed after leaving. If CMC stays healthy and the line improves even to mediocrity at a 17th round ADP Darnold is a near end of draft QB that I could see finishing as high as QB 14-15 with burners like Robby Anderson an DJ Moore on the outside.

Christian McCaffrey: ADP: 1.3

If he is available you take him. Simple as that. He is my 1-1.

DJ Moore: ADP 50.9

Moore is the first of the pair of wide receivers left to target for the Panthers and you can pretty much copy and paste my thoughts with him and Robby Anderson below. Moore had almost 1,200 yard on 66 grabs with a quarterback who was 28th in the NFL with 7.1 air yards per attempt, the 31st ranked O-Line in the league, no McCaffrey to make the opposing defense think, and Curtis Samuel taking away targets. I would prefer his ADP to be a touch lower but if you are sitting at the turn in the 5th round and he is still available I can not imagine what his upside could be with someone who can throw it deep.

Robby Anderson: 80.4

Robby caught 95 passes for almost 1,100 yards with a QB who threw almost all of his passes at the line of scrimmage as the teams number two receiver. I already mentioned above the litany of issues on the offensive side of the ball that dampened the production for both him and Moore. I personally like Anderson’s ADP much better. I think his upside is just a touch lower than Moore, but I am splitting hairs in that regard (maybe 100 yards and a td or two) and you can get him as your wide receiver three or four depending on how early you have a tendency to draft tight-end. In a 17 game season in a competent offense I wouldn’t be shocked if Anderson ended a healthy 2021 campaign with 1300-1400 yards and well over 100 grabs.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Carolina Panthers

Final Thoughts:

I truly think Carolina will be a much better football team this year even if the win-loss record doesn’t show it. The Saints are still a really strong team without Brees and they have to plays the Bucs and their top defensive unit twice and having the Patriots, Washington, and Dolphins on the schedule is not doing them any favors. Joe Brady is a very innovative offensive coordinator and the tendency that players have to excel away from Adam Gase is pushing me towards a sense of optimism for Sam Darnold and the Carolina panthers as a whole.

Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Carolina Panthers. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 1st of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons:

2020 Record: 4-12

Coaching Changes

Arthur Smith: New Head Coach/Offensive Coordinator/Play Caller (Titans)

Dean Pees: Defensive Coordinator (Titans)

Offense: West Coast, Zone Run, Play-Action, 2 Tight-Ends

Defense: Multiple Base Packages, Heavy Blitz. Aggressive

Fantasy Targets (By National Fantasy Championship ADP): Calvin Ridley (22.15), *Julio Jones (46.99), Kyle Pitts (86.53), Matt Ryan (88.23), Mike Davis (104.67), Hayden Hurst (167.81), Russel Gage (177.70)

*Denotes Potential Trade

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons

Overview:

The first NFL team that we will be covering is the Altana Falcons and they are an interesting team from a real-world and fantasy perspective, so I am excited to lead off with these guys. Not only did they poach the Titans offensive and defensive coordinators in Arthur Smith and Den Pees, but it looks like a guarantee that Julio Jones will be going elsewhere so we have a lot to talk about. My very broad overview is that we will see a much more balanced offensive game plan with a ton of two tight-end sets, play action, and zone run concepts and while I do expect an improvement defensively, I still don’t know to what extent. I do know that Pees came out of retirement just to coach these guys up and he was the man behind the 2007 Patriots Defense and the 2012 Ravens Defense (Both Super Bowl Champions) and loves pressure which is something that the Falcons have been terrible at over the last several seasons. Let us take a deeper look below in Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons.

When it comes to coaching changes it can sometimes be a little tricky figuring out how they will translate to new organizations. I do not think that is going to be an issue for me here. By a wide margin I watched more coach’s films on the Titans than any other team in 2020 so I feel confident in my early assessment here.

Scheme

Offense:

If you go back to the film, you will see a few things that are prevalent in Arthur Smith’s offense in 2020. They rely heavily on the zone run, play-action, bootlegs, and 2 tight end sets or “12” personnel group. Not only did they lead the league in multiple tight end sets (35% 1 RB 2 TE “12”, 4% 2 RB 2 TE, 9% 1 RB 3 TE) with 48% of their offensive plays having at least two tight-ends but they ran the fewest plays BY FAR involving packages with at least 3 wide receivers (38% 1 TE 3 WR, 2% 0 TE 3 WR) totaling 40% of their snaps. There were a few packages combined with 3 or more WR but they did not even reach a percent, so I am leaving them out.

The Titans were also a very deliberate team averaging only 63.5 offensive plays per game which put them at 22^nd slowest although, in situations where they needed to pick up the pace, they were able to do so finishing 3rd in pace at 25 seconds per play in situations where they were tied or losing and Matt Ryan has played almost his entire career in fast paced situations so while I think he wants to Davis wants to slow things down a bit I know that Falcons roster is well adjusted to playing at that faster pace.

Defense:

Dean Pees has chosen to come out of retirement to coach this Falcons defense and while they have not been good and I am being very generous, they are very young and they were the most injured defense in the NFL. So much so that they had several weeks where the entire secondary and I mean all safeties and cornerbacks both starter and backup came from practice squads or the house. He has no specific base package. He runs 3-4 and 4-3 depending on the situation. The one thing that is constant with Pees is pressure. It doesn’t always show in the numbers as with the Titans over the last several years, the Ravens in the mid-2010s, and the Patriots in the mid-late 2000s his defense has finished middle of the road but he runs a very opportunistic style that comes up big in big moments. And he has been called a Super Bowl champion, twice because of it.

So, what does this mean? Let us answer the easier question first. Do we expect a ton of scenarios where the Falcons will be ahead and therefore be able to slow down the pace? No? Good. Glad to see we are on the same page there. So since we can expect plenty of offensive opportunities it is time for the tougher question. Who will be the main beneficiaries of the new offensive scheme? We will be having this conversation assuming there is no Julio. If he stays and says he will play, adjust Gage accordingly although I do not think you really should as you will see below.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons

Fantasy Targets:

Matt Ryan:

Matty Ice has been a guy that you can consistently count on year in and year out to give you a good floor/ceiling combination for a great value. Last year, which many consider his worst showing since his rookie year Ryan still delivered 4,581 yards passing, led the league in completions with 407, threw 26 TDs and 11 picks. He did that while being sacked 41 times (4^th worst), and only having 2.87 seconds to throw, which was less time than Patrick Mahomes (2.89) got when we were giving him a pass last season. While they will not get nearly as many plays off this season with Smith likely slowing down the tempo, they will be running a lot of two and three tight end sets, bootlegging to get him away from pressure and using a lot of play-action to give him just a bit more time to throw. Expect his air yards to go down as he dumps off to Mike Davis, Hayden Hurst, and Kyle Pitts a ton but the YAC will undoubtedly go up with the scheming that HC/OC Arthur Davis will put in place, at least if the Titans results are any indication. I still think he is a fantastic value as the 14^th QB off the board.

Calvin Ridley:

Beast. Moving on. OK fine, I will say something. I pretty much expected Ridley to supplant Julio last year and drafted as such. Calvin was on pretty much every fantasy team I drafted last year and the 1374 yards and 9 TDs in 15 games including a couple of games where he was injured and limited proved me right. Now we get him without Julio in an offense that will still be using play-action but in a way, I feel will be much more effective and his late second/early third ADP is honestly a bit low. I get it though, I have been in several mock drafts, and on numerous occasions, I have seen no receivers go in the first round. With a 17-game season, I would not be at all shocked to see this guy easily eclipse 1500 yards and double-digit TDs.

Mike Davis:

Mike Davis took full advantage of his opportunity when CMC went down and had he started all 16 games he would have finished with around 900 yards rushing, 550 yards receiving with around 70 receptions, and 10 TDs. At 5’9” 220-230 pounds he did extremely well in the spread-style offense that lends itself to smaller, quicker backs like McCaffrey. The zone run concepts that I am expecting Atlanta to implement fit him much, much better. He’s not the fastest guy in the world (4.61 40 yard) so a single cut, get downhill, inside zone will lead to improved run stats and we all saw how great his hands are. A little something else to consider is that everyone knew that the Panthers were not going to push more than they needed to downfield leading to 32.73% of his snaps seeing 8 or more in the box (7^th most among ALL running backs). In contrast, Todd Gurley saw only 21.54% 8+ man boxes. If we split the difference and he sees a drop down to 26% with zone concepts he should have plenty more room to run.

Kyle Pitts:

Beast #2??? Whatever, you drive a hard bargain I guess. Kyle Pitts might break every single rookie tight end record in the NFL. The talking heads all told you how good he is and considering the Falcons took him fourth overall they feel that way too. He is fast, sure-handed, and is just as capable as a receiver as he is a tight end. I kind of hinted at it at the top when talking about the scheme but Davis loves leaning on his tight ends. We know Jonnu Smith had a big year with 40 catches for 448 yards and eight touchdowns but did you know that even Anthony Firkser was able to have a few good games including an 8 catch 113 yards 1 TD game. Not nearly as huge but a backup tight end with 39 grabs, 387 yards, and a TD is more than you would expect in this day and age of a thin tight end pool. I’m saying all of that to say this. If Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser can do that on a team with a 2,000-yard rusher in Derrick Henry and two 1000 yard receivers in AJ Brown and Corey Davis what do you think the ceiling is for a man with his physical gifts with no Julio Jones and Mike Davis as the primary ball carrier?

Hayden Hurst:

Love him as a late-round flier. Everyone has written Hurst off because the Falcons didn’t pick up his 5^th-year option but he had a career year with 56 grabs for 571 yards and six TDs. How is Jonnu getting praise heaped on him with similar numbers and Hunter Henry to compete with targets with from a far less accurate QB and an offense that was hot garbage? I mean Jonnu’s ADP is 33 (134) spots higher and Hunter Henry (117) is 60 spots higher??? Do people think Cam Newton or a rookie QB Mac Jones is going to do better than a QB who averages a 65% completion percentage over his career? The Falcons will likely run almost exclusively two tight end sets and he is an afterthought. Do yourself a favor, If you are nervous about Pitts as a rookie you can get Hurst at next to nothing and benefit from people not realizing what the Falcons will do this year.

Russel Gage:

You better take him NOW before Julio moves. As the de-facto number two wide receiver for the Falcons, Russel Gage will be closer to 100 ADP than 180 once Jones’s move is official. And by the way, last season Gage had 41 more targets than Julio last year. Look it up. 68 to 109 targets in 2020. What do you think he will have without Jones in the mix drawing away targets in key situations?

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons

Final Thoughts:

This is shaping up to be one of the more interesting teams in the early going of this NFL offseason. Between the coaching changes, style changes, big names potentially out, and future superstars potentially coming in they are shaping up to be a pretty competitive team in a division where Tom Brady is a year older, where Drew Brees will either be replaced by a 30-year-old hybrid player in Taysom Hill or the most turnover-prone quarterback in NFL history in Jameis Winston, and a Panthers franchise who just rescued Sam Darnold from Adam Gase. I’m not saying they turn the whole thing around in a single season but the NFC South is notoriously fickle so who knows what kind of craziness we will run into this year.

Hope you enjoyed my first of many Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Post Draft Fantasy Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!