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Atlanta Braves

MLB DFS Stack City (Apr. 9)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Saturday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

The sites have really split up today’s slates quite a bit! We’re going to focus on the early slate starting at 1pm EST and then the main starting at 7pm EST. We finally have some beautiful weather everywhere and shouldn’t need to worry about games being postponed or delayed.

Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Stacks – Early

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jordan Lyles

Stacking the Rays yesterday wasn’t overly successful. I’m going right back to the well because they face off today against Jordan Lyles. If you followed my Aces and Bases last year, you know that Jordan Lyles was a favorite target of mine. He’s an MLB DFS gold mine! On the year last year, Lyles finished with a 5.03 xFIP and a hard-hit rate pushing 47%. Batters had 51 barrels and 223 hard-hit balls against him. Those are poor numbers and ones we want to attack. He also gave up a career-high 38 homers.

This stack today starts with Brandon Lowe. Last year against righties, Lowe had a .305 ISO and .389 wOBA. He had a phenomenal year and with a great matchup today should pick back up where he left off. Another strong piece to this stack will be Ji-Man Choi. He too had great numbers vs. righties last year, with a .254 ISO and .376 wOBA against them.

My final priority to my core here will be Kevin Kiermaier. All three of these guys will face a barrage of low 90’s fastballs as Lyles throws it close to 50% of the time to lefties. The three of them all of ISO’s over .200 to this pitch type from righties. You can absolutely throw in some righties to this stack, but my core will be these 3.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Mitch Keller

The Cardinals exploded for 9 runs on opening day and should have every chance to get right back to that number today. While Keller made some approvements over the offseason, he’s still someone that has not had much success at the major league level. Last year was a big struggle for Keller, as the pitched to a 4.90 xFIP and had an ERA over 6. While the difference in those numbers shows he had some bad luck, having an xFIP that close to 5 still isn’t good. Keller was equally as bad to both sides of the plate last season so we shouldn’t need to worry too much about splits.

The Cardinals stack really should start with guys like Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and Nolan Arenado. O’Neill is probably my favorite of the bunch as he crushed right-handed pitching last year. Last year he had a .265 ISO and .372 wOBA vs. them. He sits sandwiched between Goldy and Arenado and should have a monster year.

If you want to go cheap with this stack, you won’t miss a beat with Harrison Bader and Paul DeJong. Both of them are reasonably priced today and get you a piece of a team that should put up a healthy amount of runs today.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Justin Steele

This was the matchup they were supposed to get yesterday, but thanks to some snow the game was PPD. The hitting environment won’t be great today for the Brewers, but the matchup will be. Justin Steele made his big league debut last year, and although it wasn’t awful it wasn’t anything special. On the year he had an xFIP north of 4.2 and a HR/9 close to 1.9.

That HR/9 is what I’m looking at. We chase long balls in DFS and we can try to chase that with Steele. Steele has very clear splits. Lefties had a meager .098 ISO against him last year, but righties had a .230. We’re going to chase him hard with righties.

I’m going to go with some cheap guys in this stack. The top 2 stacks are expensive and we need to find ways to be able to afford them. I’m not telling you to not play guys like Renfroe or Adames or even McCutchen. They are all in smash spots today. Especially McCutchen who started off the year well and had a ton of success against lefties last year, with a .342 ISO. We just don’t have unlimited funds to play with.

If you can afford them, absolutely play them. A cheap way to get this stack in is with Mike Brosseau. He had a .202 ISO vs. lefties last year and will save you some cash. Another way to get there is with Tyrone Taylor. Taylor also had some success vs. lefties last year as he had an ISO close to .200. Both of those guys will open up some cash for you to be able to afford the big bats.

MLB DFS Early Slate Summary

Today’s early slate has some really attackable pitchers. I’m always an advocate of stacking against Jordan Lyles and today will be no different.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main Slate

Atlanta Braves vs. Vladimir Gutierrez

Gutierrez will probably turn into a very good pitcher one day, he’s just not there yet. And until he’s there, he’s someone we should always consider stacking against. In his first year in the majors, Gutierrez really struggled as he pitched to an xFIP of 5.11. Once you get over that 5 for a season, it really indicates a struggle.

One of the things he really struggled with was the long ball. Gutierrez gave up 20 homers last season in just 114 innings of work. With Gutierrez, we have some pretty clear splits. Lefties torched him last year with a .247 ISO and a 46% hard-hit rate.

The lefties I want to focus on with the Braves tonight are newcomer Matt Olson and Eddie Rosario. Both guys had ISO’s at or above .200 last year vs. righties. One of the top secondary pitches that Gutierrez will throw to them tonight will be a curveball. If Gutierrez hangs one, both guys should be able to put one over the right-field wall. Other guys I’d want here are Albies and also Duvall. Duvall has really found a home here in Atlanta and it’s been fun to watch. He’s always a risk to strike out, but he provides enough reward with his power to overcome that risk.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kyle Wright

I wish the Reds had a better lineup, but I still like them tonight. One of the Braves’ weaknesses this year is Kyle Wright. That sounds harsh but true. Wright has not had much success in his few trips to the majors. In 14 starts at the big league level, Wright has a 6.56 ERA to go with a 5.73 xFIP. He hasn’t been good and we’ll want to attack him when we can. While he’s been pretty bad to both sides of the plate, lefties have a 54% flyball rate against him so if we’re going to chase homers, we’ll do it with lefties.

I’ll start this stack with TikTok star Joey Votto. Votto has a long track record of success vs. righties and last year was no different. He had a .366 ISO vs. them last year and a .430 wOBA. Votto will see a healthy amount of sinkers today and that’s a pitch he enjoys smashing. Over the last few years, Votto has a .292 ISO against them from righties and a .485 wOBA. Anything can happen, but Votto is set up to have a nice night.

I’m going to surround him with Jonathan India and Tyler Naquin tonight. I also wouldn’t talk you out of playing Mike Moustakas tonight. Like Votto, he crushes sinkers. This is a good spot for him.

San Diego Padres vs. Zach Davies

Davies had arguably the worst year of his career last season. The move to Chicago was not a good one for him. His HR/9 was the highest of his career and his GB% was also close to the lowest of his career. He also struggled mightily with his command as his BB% reached double digits for the first time since his rookie year in 2015.

We’re going to wait to see if Arizona is any different for him, but until he shows something different, I’ll stack against him in DFS. Davies is pretty splits-neutral, although lefties have a higher flyball rate. That said, righties hit him much harder.

Davies predominantly throws a sinker. This is a pitch that a handful of Padres have had success against. I’ll start this stack with leadoff hitter Trent Grisham. Grisham has had success against sinkers, with a .415 wOBA and .246 ISO against it. He’ll set the table today for a team that should put up some runs against a struggling pitcher.

The rest of the guys I’d look to in this stack tonight are Croneworth, Voit, and Profar. All three are cheap to reasonably priced and will help you get to the expensive stacks tonight.

MLB DFS Late Slate Summary

You’ll notice I left off the Coors game in my stacks section. You’ll rarely see me write up the Coors games unless there is a glaring necessity to play them. Any game in Coors has the potential to be high-scoring. I just don’t see it tonight, especially from the Dodgers’ side as they get German Marquez. Marquez is an elite pitcher. He can shut down any lineup, in any park. Can the Dodgers blow him out today? yes, they definitely can. And if they do, I’ll be ok fading them.

Good luck today and hope to see some green tonight!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 10/12

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Thanks to yesterday’s rainout we have a 3 game slate of MLB playoff baseball today.

My goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: Pitching

Pitching today is very different than yesterday. Yesterday we had the likes of Max Scherzer and Freddy Peralta while today has the likes of Tony Gonsolin and Eric Lauer. They are solid pitchers, but nothing like their counterparts from yesterday.

My top pitcher today is Lance McCullers. McCullers tends to strike out batters from the right side at a little bit of a higher clip. In 2021 he struck out righties at a 28.4% clip vs. 26.2% for lefties. McCullers also throws his slider heavily to righties, more than 44% of the time.

The core to the White Sox lineup is right handed and all have high whiff rates to the pitch. if he can neutralize guys like Anderson, Robert, and Abreu to start things off it could put the Astros in a position to clinch the Division Series today and the Astros vs. Red Sox in the ALCS.

Another pitcher I’m interested in is Anthony DeSclafani. DeSclafani is well rested as he hasn’t pitched since 10/01. We shouldn’t expect a high strike out total from DeSclafani today, but we should expect a solid outing. DeSclafani has scored at least 24 DK points in 3 of his last 4 outings vs. the Dodgers. He faced them most recently on 9/3 and struck out 5 in 6 innings while only allowing 2 hits.

DeSclafani should face a lineup that has 6 righties in it today, including the pitcher. On the year he held righties to just a .109 ISO and 33% hard hit rate. This is a solid match up for him today and while I like McCullers a bit better, DeSclafani should be able to hold his own today.

A case could also be made to throw out Huascar Ynoa. The Brewers bats have gone completely cold. They have been shutout in back to back games and have only mustered 11 hits in those 2 games. They’re in desperation mode and face off against a pitcher that was pretty solid this year.

Ynoa relies heavily on his slider. He threw it more than 45% of the time to both sides of the plate. If we look at the projected lineup for the Brewers today, only Urias and Tellez had whiff rates lower than 30% to sliders. I’m ok going into a match up having those guys as the guys that may have a decent shot at production. If Ynoa’s slider is on point today the Braves will be moving on to the NLCS.

Charlie Morton has been named today’s starter on short rest. Even though he may be on an abbreviated pitch count he’s very much in play. He dominated them through 6 innings on Friday and only gave up a 2 run homer to Tellez.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Atlanta Braves vs. Eric Lauer – Lauer has some pretty clear splits and those splits will not be to his advantage today. He gives up way more hard contact and fly balls to righties. Righties had a 46.5% hard hit rate vs. him this year and a 42% fly ball rate. Eight of the nine Braves today will be batting from the right side of the plate. And the lone lefty is Freddy Freeman who is typically pretty good against southpaws.

My core today from the Braves will be Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson. Both guys line up extremely well with Lauer and his cutter. Riley has a .294 ISO against cutters while Swanson has a .333 ISO against them. Both of these guys helped the Braves get to this point and they’ll help them advance to the NLCS today. Other guys I’m interested in here are Ozzie Albies and Jorge Soler.

Houston Astros vs. Carlos Rodon – Rodon is a great pitcher. No one on the slate has the strike out upside that he has as he’s the only pitcher throwing today that had a 30% K rate or greater in 2021. That said, the Astros are in control of the series and should be able to send the White Sox packing today. If we want to get a take down today we really need to differentiate our lineup.

The field should gravitate to guys like Altuve, Correa, and Bregman and if you want to play the chalk that’s where you’d want to be. If playing the Astros today I’d want to make sure I have the likes of Meyers and Maldonado in my lineups. Although it was a smaller sample size, Meyers had a .294 ISO vs. lefties this year.

San Francisco Giants vs. Tony Gonsolin – If you look at just ISO and wOBA Gonsolin looks like he does better vs. lefties than he does righties. I think it was mostly luck and I’m going to hammer him with lefties today. If we look at some of his metrics he should be getting tagged by lefties. His fly ball rate is higher, his hard rate is higher, his K rate is lower, and his exit velocity is higher. All signs point to lefties getting the better of him.

The heart and soul of the Giants is Brandon Crawford. If using the Giants today, he’s a must for me. He had a .230 ISO vs. righties this year and a near .400 wOBA. I’d also make sure to prioritize guys like Wade, Yastrzemski, and Bryant. All three had ISO’s over .200 against righties this year. Gonsolin Is very beatable and the Giants should clinch their spot in the NLCS vs. him today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Oh what a fun day today is going to be for the baseball fan. All 3 games could be the last for teams. As I look at this slate and the arms vs. the bats, we should see the teams up 2-1 in their series clinch their spots in their respective league championships.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 10/2 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The ugliest weather is in St. Louis, and there’s a good shot at a delay or postponement there. Some other trouble spots to be aware of as well, but the Cubs-Cards is the worst of it.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Lucas Giolito ($9,900)

Giolito has pretty balanced splits against both sides of the plate, which is a good thing when facing a Tigers lineup that’s full of switch-hitters. While there are some rain concerns in this game, most of the heavy stuff probably stays south of the ballpark, and there’s a good chance they just play through some lighter rain. It’s one of the early games, so we’ll have to check back on the radar before lock and hopefully get confirmation there’s no late start or delay — which could complicate things. But I love his upside on a slate where Corbin Burnes and Julio Urias both have tough matchups and could have an early hook. The White Sox righty, on the other hand, should go a little deeper into this game and has the highest projected FD total of the slate — and the most upside. Aside form his last start in Detroit on July 4, he’s handled the Tigers (who have the third-highest K rate in MLB) pretty well this season. Giolito is a fine play in all formats.

GPP Value Play: Chris Flexen ($9,100)

Flexen isn’t a dazzling SP option, but he’s usually god for 5-6 Ks and almost always pitches 5-7 innings — an important factor when we consider the stage of the season we’re at. The Angels are sporting the second-worst team wOBA in baseball over the past 14 days (.273) with a paltry .218/.302/.322 slash line in that span. Flexen’s upside is capped at around 50 FD points, but he’s got a great shot at hitting 35-40 points if you’re looking for some safety. As long as he stays away from throwing too many cutters (the Angels hit that pitch relatively well), he’ll have success with his fastball/curveball combo.

Contrarian GPP Play: Zac Gallen ($8,400)

Gallen hasn’t had the season many hoped for, as the righty showed lots of promise during his first two seasons in the big leagues. But he’s been a thorn in the side of the Rockies, pitching well in his last start in Coors (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER and 9 Ks — good for 52 FD points on Aug. 21). Even when he got “rocked by the Rockies” earlier in a home start, he struck out seven batters. I love him as a cheap contrarian play who could have a ceiling game against a lineup that’s got nothing to strive for except their pride.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves

I’m assuming the Braves won’t sit everyone again tonight since the lineup core got a breather on Friday, but we’ll have to check back before lock to make sure they’re playing. Even with an early yank, these hitters have plenty of upside and could pile up some runs in the first few innings facing Mets SP Trevor Williams. The priority bats are Freddie Freeman ($3,900), Jorge Soler ($3,400), Adam Duvall ($3,300), Eddie Rosario ($3,000). Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies would be in play, but are expected to get the night off.

GPP Value Stack: Minnesota Twins

The Twins have a slew of excellent hitters in absolute SMASH spots tonight versus Royals SP Kris Bubic, and I’ll be starting my stacks with Jorge Polanco ($3,600), Byron Buxton ($4,100) and Josh Donaldson ($3,400). We can choose our fourth hitter from riskier but high-upside cheaper options like Mitch Garver ($3,100), Miguel Sano ($2,500) and Brent Rooker ($2,200). They’ll be my primary GPP stack and should produce a lot of fireworks tonight.

GPP Value/Contrarian Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks

We don’t write up the D-backs much in this space, but they matchup up well against Antonio Senzetela, who’s been okay this season but has struggled through his past few starts. I’ll have at least a couple GPP lineups Arizona stacks featuring an array of hitters form the 1-6 spots in their order, prioritizing Ketel Marte ($3,400), David Peralta ($2,300), Daulton Varsho ($2,300), Pavin Smith ($2,100) and Carson Kelly ($2,400), with a few shares of cheap (and near-minimum price) leadoff hitter Josh Rojas ($2,100).

More (Obvious) Cash/GPP Game Stack Options: Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians & Chicago White Sox

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 09/21

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Brandon Woodruff ($10.2k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – On paper the match up isn’t great for the highest priced pitcher on the slate. Cardinals are a solid lineup that over the past month has only struck out 23% of the time vs. righties. That said, we saw last night that they are susceptible to strike outs against strike out pitchers. Peralta was able to fan 9 in just 6 innings of work.

W/ Woodruff we have very similar strike out upside to Peralta, if not greater. Over the last 30 days Woodruff has a near 32% K rate. No pitcher on tonight’s slate has the pure K upside that Woodruff has. However, you could make a strong case tonight on FD to fade him due to him being the only arm over $10k. If he fails and the masses gravitate towards him you’d be a step ahead of your peers.

Jordan Montgomery ($8.8k) vs. Texas Rangers – Montgomery might be my favorite arm tonight (this says more about the slate than it does about Montgomery). Cortes was able to strike out 7 Rangers last night in just 4.1 innings last night. While I don’t expect Montgomery to strike out the Rangers at the same pace, I do expect him to go a little deeper than Cortes did. With him going deeper I think we can get Montgomery up to 6 innings with 5-6 strike outs. If he does Montgomery could be close to the top tonight when all is said and done.

Alek Manoah ($9.6k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Manoah very well could get tagged with a negative number. The Rays are a deep lineup, especially against righties. That said, Manoah has faced the Rays 3 times now on the year and has struck out 29 rays in just 18 innings of work.

In his last outing he dominated them with 10 K’s in arguably his best start in the majors. He made an adjustment in his pitch mix last outing and if he does it again he should do well. He threw his slider 39% of the time in his last outing vs. the Rays. It’s a pitch that guys like Cruz, Arozarena, and Zunino really struggle with. If he continues down that path tonight with his slider, we’re looking at a ceiling game.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Oakland Athletics vs. Marco Gonzales – Over the last 30 days Gonzales has a 6.13 xFIP and just a 14.9% K rate. He’s given up 8 homers and 10 barrels over that stretch. While he’s had a few good games over the last month, some of it has been a mirage. There are some numbers that are telling me there’s regression coming. His xFIP is almost 2 runs higher than his ERA and he’s giving up a ton of contact with contact rate of nearly 85%.

He’s going to get shelled at some point and I think tonight’s the night against a solid Athletics lineup. We want to attack Gonzales with righties and the A’s should throw out a lineup that has 8 righties in it. Righties have a .326 ISO against Gonzales over the last month. We’re talking about a nightmare scenario tonight.

The guy I’m going to build around is Matt Chapman ($3.5k). Over the last month Chapman has been crushing lefties with a .474 ISO. I’m not in the business of calling homers, but there’s a good chance Chapman homers tonight. Other guys I like here are Harrison ($2.9k), Marte ($3.8k), and Canha ($3.2k). They’re all solid against lefties and have historically hit sinkers well.

Atlanta Braves vs. Luke Weaver – Weaver’s not an awful pitcher but he’s a pitcher with a clear weakness. Lefties. Over the last 30 days lefties have been crushing him. They have a .480 ISO and .430 wOBA. They also have a 52% hard hit rate against him. This is a match up that we want to exploit and the Braves have several lefties that we can do that. The guys I’m focused on here are Freeman ($3.9k), Albies ($3.8k), and the underpriced Eddie Rosario ($2.8k).

Rosario is about $500 under what he should be priced for this match up. Over the last month he has a .382 ISO against righties and a .425 wOBA. He’s my anchor here. If the Braves can get to Weaver early and we get the Diamondbacks bullpen this sets us up for a huge night. The Dbacks bullpen is one of the worst in the league.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jake Woodford – It’s only a matter of time before Woodford has a blow up game. It’s coming and I think it comes tonight. Here’s why I think he’s due. He has an 88% contact rate and a 46% fly ball rate. So he’s giving up a ton of fly balls. Those fly balls will eventually find the seats. His xFIP is also telling us it’s coming. It’s sitting at a 4.99 over the last 30 days while his ERA is at 2.03. When I see that big of a difference between the 2 I see a big red flag.

I’m looking at the lefties in this match up as they have a 64% fly ball rate vs. him over the last month. Guys like Narvaez ($2.4k), Vogalbach ($2.3k), Escobar ($3.7k), and Wong ($3.5k) really peak my interest here. They’ll all have the platoon advantage tonight and all have fly ball rates in the upper 30%’s or higher. Fly ball hitters plus fly ball pitchers equal a match made in heaven.

I also really like the Cubs vs. Jax tonight. Jax has looked overmatched at the major league level. The only reason I didn’t write them up as a top 3 stack is that the wind is expected to blow in heavily tonight at Wrigley. If for some reason the weather changes, I may bump up the Cubs higher.

The Astros also should have another monster night tonight. Look for them to dominate Naughton.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching isn’t great tonight but I like the spots of the 3 I’m focused on. Because pitching is cheap we should have no issues fitting in the top Braves bats w/ the A’s. The teams also align really well.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/4 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Cincinnati for the Tigers-Reds game, which if it plays will have to be through heavy rain. If the forecasts changes we can consider the Reds hitters against LHP Matthew Boyd, but this game has a good shot at a PPD so it might just be too risky even for bats.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Framber Valdez ($9,800)

There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, but Valdez offers the best shot at a decent floor with GPP-winning upside. He’s likely where a lot of folks will be starting their cash game builds. If he can avoid the big blow from Fernando Tatis Jr. and navigate through the rest of this lefty-heavy lineup, I’m confident he’ll be sitting somewhere in that 29-46 point range where he’s lived comfortably in his last seven starts. Valdez sports a relatively pedestrian 22.4% K rate this season, but he’s posted at least 6 Ks in five of his last six starts and the Padres don’t necessarily destroy lefty pitching. This slate isn’t pretty for starting pitching, but Valdez is likely the best we’ve got.

Best GPP Value: Reynaldo Lopez ($8,100)

The White Sox starting rotation has taken some hits lately, with both Lane Lynn and Lucas Giolito on the shelf — at least temporarily. If Tony La Russa weren’t so old school, I’d be worried about Lopez going the requisite five innings he needs to pick up the win, but if “Pound-em-down” Tony says Lopez is starting, he’s probably willing to let him go 5-6 IP, which should be plenty long enough to make value against the Royals. Lopez had 42 FD points in his last start (against the Cubs) on August 27, striking out 7 in 5.0 IP and notching a win. We could see similar results tonight.

Contrarian GPP Play: Joe Musgrove ($8,800)

As WinDaily’s Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 article, Musgrove worked some magic against the Angels his last time on the bump, and gets another tough test facing the Astros — a team that just doesn’t strike out very much and mashes it around the yard (lowest K-rate in baseball, top three in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP). Musgrove is pitching this game in his team’s NL park, so that helps, and the most recent performance by the Astros against an ancient Jake Arrieta shows that at least they aren’t red-hot heading into the matchup. Both of the implied team totals in this game are under 4 runs, so it could really go either way. I’m assuming that Musgrove’s ownership will be much lower than that of Valdez. If Braves RHP Ian Anderson were looking anything like his 2020 self in his last few starts after returning from injury, I’d have some interest in suing him as a contrarian play in Coors, but that just doesn’t appear to be the wise move tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, so if you’re believer they’ll finally give us the shootout we’ve been promised tonight — have at it. But the past couple of nights have given us the highest totals outside of Coors, which is where we’ll be focusing our attention for tonight’s slate. That starts with Dodgers against LHP Sammy Long in San Francisco in a revenge game. This lineup just lost first place to the Giants last night and they absolutely destroy fastballs, and that’s primarily what Long throws. I’m starting my stacks with Trea Turner ($4,300), Mookie Betts ($4,100), A.J. Pollock ($3,200) and Justin Turner ($3,800), but lefties Max Muncy ($4,000 — if he doesn’t sit) and Corey Seager ($3,800) are in play as well.

The Second-best Stack: Chicago White Sox

If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers in a pitcher’s park, then consider rolling out the White Sox, who project well against young lefty Daniel Lynch. Lynch has been solid lately and has some contrarian upside in his own right tonight, but the smart money (4.95 projected team total for the Sox) is on Luis Robert ($4,200), Jose Abreu ($4,100), Eloy Jimenez ($3,600) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,500) pulvering baseballs and giving us a big offensive night. Andrew Vaughn and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP is the best value option at just $2,500, while Leury Garcia ($2,300) who sports positive splits against LHP (.320 wOBA) makes sense as well if you need the salary savings and need to drop one of the bigger bats.

Value GPP Stack: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels offense just hasn’t been great the last couple of weeks, sporting a relatively weak wRC+ of 78 and .128 ISO over the past 14 days. But that all changes tonight against LHP Kolby Allard. On the season, the splits against LHP are solid, with a team wOBA of .322, ISO of .180 and 105 wRC+, numbers that match well against Allard and his ERA and FIP — both north of 5.00. Plus, the wind is blowing out to right field in a hitter’s park, and the temperature is the highest of any game in the slate. We’re going to see some runs scored in Anaheim tonight, and I’m starting my stacks with Shohei Ohtani ($4,500), David Fletcher ($2,900), Jo Adell ($2,500) and Justin Upton ($2,700). Max Stassi ($2,900) is in play if he starts, and so is “Fabulous” Phil Gosselin ($2,300) if he’s high in the order.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 08/24

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Corbin Burnes ($11.5k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – No pitcher on tonight’s slate has the type of upside that Burnes has. Over the past month he has 2 starts of 70 FD points or greater with one of those being against this Reds team. While I don’t expect another 70 point performance today, I do expect him to have another one of his solid outings.

His metrics over the past 30 days have been great. He has just a 2.94 xFIP, a 29% K rate, a 36.2% CSW, and just a 21.5% hard hit rate. He’s been getting it done. If we look out even farther Burnes has given up more than 1 ER just once over the past two months. He is the top pitcher tonight and I don’t think it’s close.

German Marquez ($9k) vs. Chicago Cubs – I’m willing to use below average pitchers vs. the Cubs at this point. Marquez is far from a below average pitcher.

Senzatela dominated the Cubs last night with 6 strike outs in 6 innings. Marquez > Senzatela. The projected lineup that Marquez is going to face tonight is just not good. They have a 29% K rate vs. righties over the pats month and if we look at the power numbers, they aren’t their either. Their ISO over the same period is just .125 against righties.

With Marquez pitching there’s no reason to overthink this one. Look for Marquez to dominate a lineup that will be a punching bag for the rest of the year.

Tanner Houck ($6.7k) vs. Minnesota Twins – Houck has 4 straight starts of at least 6 K’s. During that stretch he faced the Yankees, the Blue Jays twice, and the Rays once. So pretty solid lineups. Tonight he gets to take on a lesser opponent in the Twins.

The Twins over the past week have struck out more than 26% of the time and haven’t been doing much in terms of power. Houck’s salary has not yet caught up to his production and it’s something I’ll want to take advantage of.

In his last 16 innings of work he has a 33% K rate and a 14.9% swinging strike rate. Those are pretty good numbers for a mid $8k range pitcher, let alone a pitcher a under $7k.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Los Angeles Angels vs. Spencer Watkins – The Orioles turn to Spencer Watkins to stop the bleeding. They’ve lost 18 in a row and with Watkins on the mound there’s a solid chance they get to 19 tonight. Over the past month Watkins has just been dreadful.

He owns a 5.72 xFIP over that period and a 52% hard hit rate. Over his last 6 straight he hasn’t had a single start where he hasn’t given up less than 4 earned runs. He’s a low strike out pitcher that gives up a ton of contact. Let’s attack him!

On the season he’s actually been worse against righties as they’ve tagged him for a .228 ISO and .380 wOBA. That said, lefties have started to get to him over the last 30 days. It’s all going to start with Ohtani ($4.5k) tonight.

He’s by far their best hitter and there’s a very real chance that he leads off the game with a homer against the warehouse tonight. Watkins is mostly a fastball pitcher. He’s been throwing it more than 45% of the time to both sides of the plate.

My hope is that Stassi ($2.8k) plays tonight because he’s been crushing fastballs this year. He owns a .507 slugging % and a 52% hard hit rate against them this year. Another guy I’ll look to grab is Brandon Marsh ($2.5k) as he’s been swinging a hot bat.

Over the past week he has a .966 OPS and a 160 wRC+. Those 3 are my top targets here but this entire lineup is in play against a bad pitcher and a bad bullpen.

Boston Red Sox vs. Griffin Jax – If we look Jax’s last 30 days there’s a huge gap between his ERA and xFIP/SIERA at close to 3 runs. Anytime I see that type of difference there are few things I look at.

First thing is their LOB %. Jax’s is at 91.7%. Next I’ll look at their contact rate, 82% for Jax. Then I’ll look at his hard hit rate, 41%. So we have a pitcher giving up a ton of hard contact that’s leaving a large amount of runners on base.

At some point, Jax’s luck is going to run out and regression is going to hit him. Tonight should be the night against a potent Red Sox lineup. The two guys in this lineup that really have my intrigue are Devers ($4k) and Schwarber ($3.7k).

Both guys have slaughtered right handed pitching this year with ISO’s around .330 mark. They should both see a ton of fastballs tonight as Jax throws it more than 44% of the time to lefties.

Schwarber has a .673 slugging % against fastballs on the year and Devers isn’t too far behind at .500. They will be my foundation to the Red Sox stack. All other Red Sox will be in play as they should put up a huge number.

Atlanta Braves vs. Andrew Heaney – Heaney is a favorite of mine to pick on because he gives up such a large number of fly balls. Over the past 30 days his fly ball rate is at 55%.

Anytime you give up that many fly balls you’re bound to give up some homers. And that’s just what Heaney has done. In his last 28 innings of work he’s given up 10 homers.

Heaney has been pretty horrendous to both sides of the plate as a member of the Yankees so the entire lineup is in play. The priority here will be Soler ($3.5k) as he has just crushed lefties over the last month. His ISO is at .605. He’s a boom or bust pick though due to his 27.5% K rate. If he connects on a pitch from Heaney tonight, there’s a very real chance it leaves the park.

Other guys I’ll look to get into this stack are Riley ($4.1k) and Swanson ($3.8k). They’ll see an onslaught of fastballs tonight and they each have slugging %’s over .600 on the year against them.

Freeman ($4.2k) is a possible way to differentiate your stack as he almost always goes under owned against lefties. He shouldn’t be as he has a .352 wOBA against them this year.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We have a decent amount of pitching options tonight and I’ve provided my favorite in the high, medium, and low price ranges. The game in Baltimore has the potentially to be a high scoring affair.

While my favorite side is the Angels side, don’t’ sleep on the O’s as they’re somewhat hungry and they are facing their former teammate in Bundy.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/21 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 6:40PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Baltimore for the Braves-Orioles, and while we can certainly target hitters for this game, I’m not interested in either pitching option. Pricing is really tight on FD, much unlike the free squares for Colorado on DK, and it feels like all the best hitters on the slate are $3,500 and up — but we have some ways to attack this in GPPs and give ourselves a great shot at spiking a top finish.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,800)

It may seem crazy to say given his dynamic range of outcomes, but Rodriguez facing the strikeout-prone Rangers is the clear ace of the slate, especially with how much weight FD gives Ks and just how iffy the next two options (Joe Musgrove and Aaron Nola) have been over their past few starts. I love a good risk-reward pick as much as the next guy, but we just haven’t seen enough from the starting pitchers in the PHI-SD game to warrant using them at those prices. Rodriguez, though, gets a great spot against a Rangers team that is dead last in wOBA (.284) vs. LHP. He has 10K upside in this matchup and should get the requisite run support to notch a W. The only problem in rostering him comes when it’s time to stack up some hitters, but we do have some great value options on the Cardinals (more on that later).

Best GPP Value: J.A. Happ ($8,100)

The crafty veteran lefty is definitely someone that we could have looked to attack with right-handed mashers earlier in the season, but he’s completely turned around his season this August. Since he was traded to St. Louis, Happ’s allowed just three runs over 16.2 innings (1.62 ERA) with an 11:5 K:BB in his three outings. He’s sporting a dynamite .251 wOBA against opposing hitters in that stretch, and there’s nobody on this Pirates lineup that really scares me. He’s looking at around 25-30 as a floor with 45+ upside at a price point where nobody else has that kind of ceiling. He’s worth the investment and leaves $3,300+ per hitter — which helps us get the guys we need.

The other GPP Play: Wade Miley ($8,800)

Nobody likes playing soft-tossing Wade Miley, but he’s probably going to be relatively popular on this slate because he draws the Marlins, a lineup that’s chock full of some guys that aren’t necessarily household names. In fact, his popularity could dictate a few GPP stacks of the Marlins hitters just because it’ll be easy to get a portion of our builds way ahead of the projected ownership for guys like Lewis Brinson, Jesus Aguilar and Brian Anderson. But in my GPP builds where I’m not stacking Marlins, he’s a viable value option. I just wouldn’t exceed 20-25% with him if we’re doing 10+ lineups. He’s another guy with a 25-30 point floor and 45+ upside, but like I said — he’ll be pretty chalky, and if we’re looking for leverage we’re looking elsewhere.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox

With all due respect to the game in Coors and the Braves against Matt Harvey in a game that’s likely to get pretty wet, my top stack is going to be the Red Sox against Jordan Lyles, who’s been dreadful. Lyles sports a .355 wOBA, .207 ISO, 40+% hard contact rate, 1.7 HR/9, a miniscule 16% K rate, a hilariously high 11% BB rate and a 49% fly ball rate. The Sox are going to mash, and getting exposure to their 1-7 hitters is a priority. The top four among them would be J.D. Martinez ($4,000), Rafael Devers ($4,200), Xander Bogaerts ($4,100) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,600) — who’s having a career year and has greatly improved his production vs. RHP. I also like leadoff man Kike Hernandez ($3,600), Kyle Schwarber ($3,700) and Alex Verdugo ($3,000) and, if he gets the start, a dirt-cheap Travis Shaw ($2,300). I’ll be mixing and matching Sox builds in just about all of my GPP entries, except for the random couple where I get some Coors exposure — which I don’t think is a huge priority on this slate based on FD’s inflated pricing. There’s plenty of value in that Colorado lineup on DK, but it’s cost prohibitive on FD where we need to save a few bucks.

GPP Value Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards are the clear value play that allows us to fit Rodriguez and/or the necessary Red Sox bats. Tommy Edman ($3,000), Tyler O’Neill ($3,200), Paul Goldschmidt ($3,800) and Nolan Arenado ($4,300) are the best four bats, but we might not be able to get Goldy and Arenado in there because of their hefty prices — which is fine in GPPs since we have more options in Paul DeJong ($2,700) and Harrison Bader ($2,900). Yadier Molina is really inexpensive at $2,500, and he’s locked into that No. 5 spot right in the middle of all the action.

Contrarian GPP Stack: Miami Marlins

We’ll start with the guys I mentioned earlier — Aguilar ($2,900), Brinson ($2,800) and Anderson ($2,900) and throw in Miguel Rojas ($2,800) for good measure. Wade Miley limits hard contact, but this is a bunch that could fluster him by just getting the ball in play, and relying on the “bloop and a blast” method. Again — this is a contrarian mini-stack not to be used in more than 20-25% of your GPP builds if you’re multi-entering. Jazz Chisholm, Jr. ($3,200) and Jesus Sanchez ($2,300) are also options.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/14 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Possibility for a stray shower that could cause a late start or brief delay at Citi Field for Dodgers-Mets, but other than that we don’t have to worry about much other than the usual weirdness in these trying times!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($11,500)

The price may prohibit us from getting all the bats we want, but there’s no denying that Buehler offers the safest option for cash games as long s the weather looks like it will hold prior to lock. The Mets are just about middle-of-the-road in K rate in MLB (23.6%), and Buehler’s pitch repertoire all but guarantees they’ll have trouble barreling him up tonight. From a MLB DFS perspective, there’s plenty of reason to steer away on GPPs and single-entry builds where we’d like to get some big bats, but there may be some sneaky stack value that could help us combine Buehler’s high floor with the hitting points necessary to nail down a solid cash game lineup.

NOTE: If you’re willing to assume a little more risk and need the extra savings, Joe Musgrove ($9,600) is also a viable option against a somewhat feckless Arizona lineup.

Best GPP Value: Luis Garcia ($7,900)

Garcia is woefully mispriced on FD and we’re going to take advantage in GPPs. In his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 article, Adam Strangis points out that Garcia has a great spot for production here, and that’s a DK-oriented piece where he’s actually priced at $9,900, while Buehler is just $10,600. On FD, however, we only need one SP — and Garcia’s average of 31.7 PPG (with duel season highs of 52 points coming in his last start and two of his last four starts) is a huge plus. He’s clearly our best bang for the buck against an Angels lineup that has a few bright spots but has been among the worst in the league over the past 14 days (.214/.282/.314 team slash; .264 team wOBA and 66 wRC+). Single-entry, large-field GPP — maybe even cash games — I’ll be all over Garcia tonight in MLB DFS tonight.

Contrarian GPP Play: Dylan Cease ($8,900)

The Yankees offense is very scary, but they do strike out at a 24.3% rate this season and this game will not be played in a wind tunnel Field of Dreams where any hard hit fly ball ends up in the corn. Cease is projected for over 30 FD points and he could easily exceed the 40-point mark if he can avoid the walks and big blast (he’s made big strides in 2021, lowering his BB/9% to 3.69 from 5.25 in a tumultuous 2020). He should carry low ownership against the Bronx Bombers and pitching on his home field should help a bit, as he’s posted a .267 wOBA on the South Side of Chicago, compared to .301 in road games. This is a risky play but Cease does have upside in this matchup if he can keep the Yankees off base and limit the HR damage to solo blasts.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

Taijuan Walker hasn’t been too good since the end of June, yielding a whopping .464 wOBA since the All-Star break and an almost hilarious .333/.406/.711 slash line to opposing hitters. And now, folks, he gets to face the Los Angeles Dodgers! We can focus our attention on the lefties here. making a point to include Cody Bellinger ($3,600) — who’s really been heating up — along with Corey Seager ($3,200), Max Muncy ($3,700) and finish off our four-man stack with RHB A.J. Pollock ($3,100), who’s still relatively cheap. Trea Turner is also worth a look, but he’s expensive at $4,000, and if Albert Pujols ($2,200) starts he’ll be a bargain.

GPP Value Stack: San Francisco Giants

I profited quite a bit from having almost 100% of Austin Slater ($2,500) and Wilmer Flores ($3,000) last night in the late slate contests, and we want to take advantage of their soft prices and crazy splits against LHP again tonight, as they’ll be facing Rockies SP Kyle Freeland, a southpaw with a .364 wOBA (and nine HR allowed this season in 52.0 total IP) against right-handed batters. Throw in cleanup hitter Darin Ruf ($2,700) and (future HOFer?) Buster Posey ($3,300) and you’ve got a solid and inexpensive four-man stack, viable for cash or GPP. 3B/OF.UTIL eligible Kris Bryant is also worth a look and makes sense to mix in if you can afford him at $3,900, and we have another cheap option in Donovan Solano ($2,500), who’s having an excellent second half (.307/.381/.453).

GPP Stack #2: Houston Astros

The Astros could also be popular tonight, and I’m fine starting my builds with Michael Brantley ($3,000), Yordan Alvarez ($3,900), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) and GPP wunderkind Aledmys Diaz ($2,700). Sure, we can squeeze in Jose Altuve ($3,800) if we can afford him and there’s no reason to bet against Carlos Correa ($3,500) and value option Chas McCormick ($2,300) if he gets into the lineup. Angels SP Jaime Barria has been decent since returning from Triple-A in late July, but this Astros lineup is just too good at making contact and barreling up baseballs. Don’t forget to mix in a stack or two in your GPPs.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 08/08

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. We have a great slate lined up with solid options in both.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Lance McCullers ($9.8k) vs. Minnesota Twins – McCullers has been on absolute fire over the past month. Over the last 30 days he has an elite 34% K rate and just a 2.53 xFIP. During that stretch he’s had a couple of really tough opponents in the Dodgers and White Sox.

Today he gets to take on a team that’s been struggling over the past week. The Twins have been striking out more than 28% of the time over the past week with limited power. The lineup he’s expected to face today has a 24% K rate on the year to righties. Look for McCullers to continue his string of solid outings.

Hyun Jin Ryu ($9.3k) vs. Boston Red Sox – Ryu gets to take on a Red Sox lineup today that will be without JD Martinez. That’s a huge positive for Ryu as it takes out a big lefty smasher from the lineup. After a little of a stretch where Ryu struggled, he’s been really solid of late.

In 4 of his last 5 outings he’s gone for 39 or more FD points, with a 43 point effort against these same Red Sox. Ryu throws his cutter more than 25% of the time. If it’s on today, he should continue his string of solid outings.

The Red Sox as a whole have really struggled against cutters this season. Bogaerts, Renfro, and Dalbec have all performed poorly against this pitch year and those are the guys you’d normally want to use against a lefty.

Max Fried ($8k) vs. Washington Nationals – Max Fried is another guy that’s rolling right now. In 3 of his last 4 outings he’s dialed it up to 46 or more FD points. Over the last month he has a 27% K rate with a near 29% CSW.

The Nationals are a team that we’ll want to continue to attack on a daily basis as they are a watered team compared to a month ago. If Fried can navigate through Soto and Bell today he should have no problem exceeding value at his $8k price tag.

I also do like Wheeler today quite a bit. My only concern with him is that the Mets did show some signs of life in the ninth last night and they are battling for their playoff lives. They are a team that may be hungrier than normal and could get to Wheeler early.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Taijuan Walker – As a Mets fan it really pains me to write the Phillies up as a top stack. But in DFS we need to push emotions aside and play the plays that make the most sense. The Phillies today make the most sense.

Walker was elite to start the season. So much that he was the Mets representative at the All Star game. It’s been a struggle for him since. Over the past month he has an xFIP sitting at 6.35. He has seen a regression in just about all the metrics.

With the Phillies bats being red hot and Walker struggling we have a possibility for a really big number from the Phillies today. My core will be built around Bryce Harper ($4.5k) who is on a heater right now. He has an OPS of 1.358 and wOBA of .539 over the past week. On the year he has a .337 ISO vs. righties. The other guys I’m going to build around him are Segura ($3.3k), Gregorius ($2.9k), and Miller ($2.2k).

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jorge Lopez – Camden Yards in the dog days of summer vs. a bad pitcher and a struggling bullpen. The Rays check all the boxes as a great stack. Lopez is a pitcher that we like to target because of how much hard contact he gives up. On the year he’s given up a near 40% hard hit rate.

The match up today is not a good one for Lopez. He is sinker ball pitcher and the Rays are one of the best teams in baseball against the sinker. Lopez is throwing his sinker around 35% of the time this year and it’s been getting drilled. Batters have a 47% hard hit rate against it and .472 slugging %.

My main target here will be Austin Meadows ($3.8k) who has .643 slugging % vs. sinkers this year to go with a 49% hard hit rate. He’s been a little cold of late and this a big break out opportunity for him today. Brett Phillips ($2.1k) is another guy I’ll want to target here if he cracks the lineup. He’s just about min priced and has a .564 against sinkers this year. Kevin Cash, don’t mess this up for me again today. Play these 2 guys if you are reading this.

Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin – Corbin has been in peak form over the past 30 days. He’s given up 7 homers in just 22 innings of work. It takes a lot of hard work to give up that many homers in such a low amount of innings. Nearly 27% of his fly balls are leaving the park.

Today has the potential to be a really tough outing for Corbin. He’s facing a lineup that has 4 guys that have an ISO greater than .200 on the year against lefties. My favorite of the 4 is Soler ($3.3k) who is coming into the game hot.

Over the past week he has a 1.137 OPS and a .468 wOBA. He has 4 barrels and 3 homers over that stretch. A date with a lefty wouldn’t be the same if I didn’t mention Albies ($3.3k), Riley ($3.5k), and Swanson ($3.2k). The Braves today are not priced up for the match up.

Other offenses I really like today are the Blue Jays vs. batting practice pitcher Garrett Richards, the Kansas City Royals vs. Jon Lester, and the Cincinnati Reds vs. Bryce Wilson. All 3 are also primed to have big days.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Outside of the Yankees game today we should have clear skies. We have a lot of high powered offenses today facing off against pitchers they should do well against.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/7 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some light rain in Baltimore, where I’m not looking at pitchers anyway, and some normal pop-up chances in Atlanta and Cincy, but nothing tumultuous that could PPD a game we’re featuring. Giddyup!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Julio Urias ($10,000)

Urias may not have the highest upside on the slate, but both he and a pitcher to be named later offer the best chance at safety in cash games. His solid July numbers (2.30 ERA, .264 wOBA, 20% K rate, 5.6% BB rate) portend a more steady stretch in the season’s second half. The scuffling Angels have hit just .216/.271/.342 over the past week and this should not be considered a get-right spot for the halos. I’ll be plugging Urias in about half my cash and a third of my GPP lines tonight and moving on to some value stacks.

Best GPP Value: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Last week we discussed how Darvish has struggled in July and had a good spot against the Rockies and he got lit up (including yielding a HR to the opposing pitcher, German Marquez) for 5 ER — though he did rack up 8 Ks and 27 FD points. This time we have reason to expect he can improve on those numbers and hit the 40+ threshold we’re looking for in GPPs. Adam Strangis discusses Darvish’s matchup in the 8/7 Starting Rotation article and as usual it’s a must-read. Darvish has been a reverse-splits pitcher in 2021 because of the soft contact he induces against LHB, and with the D-Backs’ featuring a slew of lefty hitters and the team K rate at 23.6% (24.4% vs. RHP), he’s once again in a great spot for GPPs.

Value Cash/Single-Entry GPP Play: Charlie Morton ($8,700)

At one point, a matchup against the Nationals would have scared me off a guy like Morton, and there may still be some oblivious DFS folks who don’t take advantage of what we’re really getting on this slate with the veteran hurler in this spot. That’s a solid floor of around 30-35 FD points and the opportunity to notch 55-60+ points if he hits his ceiling. Over his past nine starts dating back to June 17, Morton has at least 25 FD points in every one, with four in the 45+ point range and three at 52, 54 and 64 FD points. The Nats have been decimated by injuries and trades and have only or two hitters that really frighten me, so I’ll have some shares of Morton in both cash and GPPs where I may need the extra $1,000 to $1,300 to squeeze in a potent stack.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Colorado Rockies

This idea that we don’t have to tell you to play hitters n Coors has been around for quite a while, but some days you need to reiterate just how high the team total for Colorado (or in many cases their opponent) is. Today’s the home team is in a really great spot against a talented but unproven starter in Jesus Luzardo that may not be ready for the Mile-High treatment. There’s a very good avenue to some decent value in fastball-mashing Brendan Rogers ($3,500) and Elias Diaz ($3,400) before we have to pay a premium for Trevor Story ($4,300) and C.J. Cron ($4,000), and we could always mix in a guy like Yonathan Daza ($3,000). It’s not a slate we need to overthink, and getting exposure to the Rockies is a good idea on a slate where they won’t garner that high of the ownership share.

GPP Stack: Cincinnati Reds

They’ve been RED-hot as of late and just got Mike Moustakas back from the IL Damn near everybody in the lineup got in on the action last night, and now we’ve got a roster chock full of left-handed hitters looking to annihilate Mitch Keller and exceed the massive projected 6+ run total the Cincy crew is carrying into the slate. Moustakas is a ridiculous bargain at $2,500, while some of the usual suspects — Joey Votto ($4,100), Jesse Winker ($4,100), Jonathan India ($3,700) and Nick Castellanos ($3,500) — still feel underpriced somehow. Throw in Kyle Farmer ($2,900), who’s been on absolute fire in the second half (.421/.470/.671 slash line, 1.141 OPS with a 200 wRC+), and lefty Tyler Naquin ($2,900) — and you’ve got plenty of options to choose from.

Contrarian Stack: Cleveland Indians

With the majority of ownership heading to the Rockies, Reds and likley the Dodgers and Braves, I’m more than happy to give the future Guardians a chance to put up galactic numbers against a weak Detroit southpaw (Tyler Alexander) and bullpen. Getting exposure to the top four — Myles Straw ($2,600), Amed Rosario ($2,900), Jose Ramirez ($3,700), Franmil Reyes ($3,500) is optimal, and we can take a few shots with Harold Ramirez (2,400), Bobby Bradley ($2,500) and Oscar Mercado ($2,500) if we need some bargain plays. If we want to pay up for a top arm and fade Coors in some lineups, there’s a few cheap and potent bats on the Detroit end (facing the hittable Eli Morgan) to make this a full game stack! Let’s go DET-CLE!!

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Atlanta Braves

MLB DFS Stacks – Early

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jordan Lyles

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Mitch Keller

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Justin Steele

MLB DFS Early Slate Summary

MLB DFS Stacks – Main Slate

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kyle Wright

San Diego Padres vs. Zach Davies

MLB DFS Late Slate Summary

MLB DFS: Pitching

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Lucas Giolito ($9,900)

GPP Value Play: Chris Flexen ($9,100)

Contrarian GPP Play: Zac Gallen ($8,400)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves

GPP Value Stack: Minnesota Twins

GPP Value/Contrarian Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks

More (Obvious) Cash/GPP Game Stack Options: Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians & Chicago White Sox

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Framber Valdez ($9,800)

Best GPP Value: Reynaldo Lopez ($8,100)

Contrarian GPP Play: Joe Musgrove ($8,800)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Second-best Stack: Chicago White Sox

Value GPP Stack: Los Angeles Angels

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,800)

Best GPP Value: J.A. Happ ($8,100)

The other GPP Play: Wade Miley ($8,800)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox

GPP Value Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

Contrarian GPP Stack: Miami Marlins

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($11,500)

Best GPP Value: Luis Garcia ($7,900)

Contrarian GPP Play: Dylan Cease ($8,900)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

GPP Value Stack: San Francisco Giants

GPP Stack #2: Houston Astros

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Julio Urias ($10,000)

Best GPP Value: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Value Cash/Single-Entry GPP Play: Charlie Morton ($8,700)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Colorado Rockies

GPP Stack: Cincinnati Reds

Contrarian Stack: Cleveland Indians

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