It is hard to believe this 9/28 MLB DFS slate is the second to last regular season day of MLB. My Dodgers have things firmly in hand, and my hopes of a Dodgers-Yankees World Series are well alive. When each season winds down it leaves me with a feeling of both sadness, and relief. This is a tradition I have watched unfold now for over forty years, and each one leaves me with tears in my eyes, even as a grown man.
With everything pretty much said and done, all the players today are basically playing for personal glory. This makes pitching extremely tough to nail down. The biggest advice I can give to you today is play light and save your bankroll for NFL DFS. Today truly is a crap shoot. So, with Mindset “Leave No Doubt” playing in the background, I bring you my last MLB DFS regular season pitching article.
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On the Defense
I have no clue what is going on tonight with the Tigers atWhite Sox. The pitching option is not available on FD, but has Reynaldo Lopez slatedto start on DK, even though everything I have seen has him slated to pitch theday game. Keep on eye on this one.
JustinVerlander vs. Los Angeles Angels
$11,400 FD / $12,800 DK
My confidence in Verlander’s competitiveness drives this 9/28 MLB DFS play. The Angels with Mike Trout were not the scariest team on most nights, and without him is anything but. Over the last seven days the other guys from Los Angeles are batting a .221 with a pathetic wRC+ of 68. Even Justin’s sub-par numbers versus the Angels this season are better than most pitchers’ good ones. With question marks all over the board tonight he has the highest upside.
RobbieRay vs. San Diego Padres
$9,300 FD / $10,600 DK
With the Padres striking out 24.8 percent of the time versusLHPs Robbie Ray is a fully loaded 9/28 MLB DFS option. Ray may have allowed fourearned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last outing facing San Diego, but he alsohad 10 strikeouts. Even with a negative ballpark shift in Arizona, for thediscount from Verlander, I would have no fear of using him in both cash gamesand GPPs.
BrettAnderson vs. Seattle Mariners
$6,700 FD / $7,200 DK
The Seattle Mariners are striking out 24.7 percent of the time versus LHPs this season. Anderson also over his last nine starts has only allowed more than three earned runs once. Seattle over the last seven days is striking out 28.7 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 32 while batting .177. I cannot think of a better time to attack them than on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate.
ReynaldoLopez vs. Detroit Tigers
$6,700 DK
As earlier mentioned, I am not 100 percent sure Lopez is starting the night game, but DK does have him listed. The not so mighty Tigers are striking out 26.5 percent of the time versus RHPs while coming in 30th in MLB in both wOBA and wRC+. His last two starts facing Detroit did not go as well as hoped, but he has had major success versus this lineup in the past. I sure hope he pitches on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate because I would love to pair him with Anderson freeing up a ton of salary to spend on hitting tonight.
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 20 | 6 | 217 | 11.94 | 1.74 | 1.41 | 36.60% | 15.50% | 2.53 | 3.24 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 12 | 8 | 168 | 12.03 | 4.33 | 1.5 | 37.80% | 19.20% | 4.28 | 3.81 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 12 | 9 | 171 | 4.58 | 2.53 | 1.05 | 54.40% | 13.60% | 4 | 4.83 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 9 | 15 | 176 | 8.18 | 3.27 | 1.74 | 34.90% | 13.90% | 5.57 | 5.39 |
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On theAttack
We have a Coors Field game on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate, and a lot ownership is going to head towards facing a lefty in Colorado. We do however have a few other sweet stacking options at lower prices.
JamesMarvel vs. Cincinnati Reds
Talk about a gift on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate. James will do anything but Marvel regardless of who he is facing. In his first three starts he has allowed 14 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. The beauty is they let him keep pitching. With nothing to lose at this point I see that trend continuing tonight.
Reds vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Eugenio Suarez | 496 | 7.50% | 28.00% | 0.27 | 1 | 0.372 | 127 |
| Aristides Aquino | 161 | 6.20% | 24.80% | 0.25 | 6 | 0.358 | 118 |
| Joey Votto | 425 | 12.50% | 18.60% | 0.67 | 3 | 0.35 | 113 |
| Derek Dietrich | 279 | 10.00% | 23.30% | 0.43 | 1 | 0.348 | 111 |
| Josh VanMeter | 226 | 11.50% | 21.20% | 0.54 | 7 | 0.327 | 98 |
| Tucker Barnhart | 306 | 12.10% | 22.20% | 0.54 | 0 | 0.319 | 93 |
| Curt Casali | 133 | 9.00% | 27.80% | 0.32 | 0 | 0.314 | 89 |
| Freddy Galvis | 406 | 6.20% | 26.40% | 0.23 | 2 | 0.31 | 91 |
| Jose Iglesias | 395 | 3.00% | 14.20% | 0.21 | 6 | 0.303 | 82 |
| Nick Senzel | 304 | 7.20% | 28.30% | 0.26 | 8 | 0.294 | 77 |
| Phillip Ervin | 159 | 6.30% | 27.70% | 0.23 | 3 | 0.279 | 66 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 32 | 9.40% | 28.10% | 0.33 | 4 | 0.272 | 62 |
| Kyle Farmer | 122 | 3.30% | 33.60% | 0.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 54 |
| Jose Peraza | 279 | 2.90% | 16.10% | 0.18 | 4 | 0.254 | 50 |
Garrett Richardsvs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Talk about a terrible comeback. Richards has allowed sevenearned runs over 5 1/3 innings since his return. Four of them earned runs werein his last start facing this same Diamondbacks team, but the last time was inSan Diego. Tonight, he is heading to Arizona and a negative park shift. The D’Backsare in full play on this 9/28 MLB DFS Slate.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Ketel Marte | 454 | 10.10% | 14.10% | 0.72 | 8 | 0.404 | 150 |
| Abraham Almonte | 33 | 15.20% | 24.20% | 0.63 | 0 | 0.399 | 147 |
| Kevin Cron | 57 | 5.30% | 33.30% | 0.16 | 0 | 0.341 | 109 |
| Christian Walker | 423 | 9.00% | 27.00% | 0.33 | 7 | 0.341 | 109 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 491 | 8.60% | 18.90% | 0.45 | 4 | 0.335 | 105 |
| Alex Avila | 162 | 19.80% | 34.60% | 0.57 | 1 | 0.331 | 102 |
| Domingo Leyba | 26 | 15.40% | 30.80% | 0.5 | 0 | 0.326 | 98 |
| Wilmer Flores | 172 | 6.40% | 10.50% | 0.61 | 0 | 0.325 | 98 |
| Tim Locastro | 150 | 4.70% | 14.70% | 0.32 | 16 | 0.318 | 94 |
| Adam Jones | 357 | 5.90% | 19.00% | 0.31 | 2 | 0.311 | 89 |
| Nick Ahmed | 460 | 8.00% | 19.30% | 0.42 | 7 | 0.297 | 80 |
| Carson Kelly | 261 | 12.30% | 21.80% | 0.56 | 0 | 0.296 | 79 |
| Jarrod Dyson | 395 | 10.60% | 18.50% | 0.58 | 29 | 0.274 | 65 |
| Jake Lamb | 194 | 12.90% | 24.20% | 0.53 | 1 | 0.271 | 63 |
| Josh Rojas | 115 | 9.60% | 25.20% | 0.38 | 2 | 0.262 | 57 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 156 | 5.10% | 13.50% | 0.38 | 1 | 0.261 | 56 |
| Caleb Joseph | 32 | 3.10% | 21.90% | 0.14 | 0 | 0.208 | 22 |
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The reality is Mike Foltynewicz has been incredible lately, and I am also sure that a ton of DFS writers are putting him out there today. My rule as a DFS writer is simple, if I am not going to use a player in my lineup, I will not include them in my article. But he is in a great spot, I just smell regression. Folty has only had eight strikeouts once this season, back on May 31st facing the Tigers. Under all the way.
Steven Matz has achieved these number a few times this season facing the Braves. With everything well in hand for Atlanta, I see some bench playing time today. Over all the way.
The Padres are among the league leaders in strikeouts versus LHPs, this is not a good thing for them. Robbie Ray has a 12.0 K/9, which is a very good thing for him. Over all the way.
Richards will be lucky enough to survive three innings tonight before being sent to the showers. Under.
A word if I may. Thank you to my beautiful wife Jennifer for taking my hand in marriage six years ago today. You put up with endless sports on the TV, loud and obnoxious hardcore music, and my grumpiness on a daily basis. I love you and hope we have many more years together. Happy Anniversary.
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This five-game 9/23 MLB DFS slate is a rather odd duck. Besides the simple fact we have a small player pool to choose from, we also have several matchups that for DFS purposes are a complete fade. The key tonight is going to be variance. Even in cash games the cash line between first place and last place, more-than-likely will be small. So, do not be afraid to take chances.
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On the Defense
PatrickCorbin vs. Philadelphia Phillies
$10,500 FD / $11,800 DK
Warning! The Philadelphia Phillies are a lot less dangerous than they appear in the mirror. Especially facing Patrick Corbin on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate. The Phillies are striking out 23.1 percent of the time versus LHPs with a middle of the pack .329 wOBA. Despite the fact Corbin has had two sub-par starts this year facing Philadelphia they were both on the road. His home ERA is 2.00 versus his 4.18 ERA while traveling. Corbin has the highest upside on the slate by far, and with no Coors Field game, and limited high-priced bats to spend up on, he is at the top of the hill.
BlakeSnell vs. Boston Red Sox
$7,500 FD / $10,300 DK
The algorithm on FD tonight seems to have hit the mark pricing wise with Snell set to pitch only three or four innings on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate. The thing is, if Snell goes four innings allowing one earned run while striking out six, that is a pretty good day in DFS. Especially on this slate, just keep in mind he will not be getting any kind of site bonuses tonight.
Snell has huge K upside while generally being able to keep batters under control. In his only start versus the mighty Red Sox he went six innings with seven strikeouts allowing one earned run. With Boston winding down their season, and the Rays in a dogfight for the Wild Card, I would take a shot here on FD.
ZackEflin vs. Washington Nationals
$8,200 FD / $6,200 DK
It’s a small 9/23 MLB DFS slate which means chances must be taken. Eflin this season facing Washington has a 1.50 ERA with 21 strikeouts over 18 innings. His price on DK is bottom low which makes no sense considering he has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last five starts. This makes for a fine GPP play on FD, and a great pitcher to pair with Corbin on DK, despite facing each other.
| Name | Team | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Patrick Corbin | Nationals | 191.2 | 10.52 | 3.01 | 0.99 | 48.90% | 13.00% | 3.1 | 3.61 |
| Blake Snell | Rays | 103 | 12.23 | 3.06 | 1.22 | 40.20% | 16.30% | 4.19 | 3.21 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 150.2 | 7.23 | 2.51 | 1.43 | 44.70% | 15.10% | 4 | 4.67 |
On theAttack
MikeShawaryn vs. Tampa Bay Rays
With the Red Sox playing at this point just to finish the season, Shawaryn could get stretched out an extra inning or two. His history suggests he will come in tonight, give up a bunch of runs right away, and be pulled. Why pull him now? The Rays offense is going to feast tonight facing a Red Sox team basically just giving guys innings. Stack away on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate.
Tampa BayRays vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Austin Meadows | 400 | 10.80% | 19.00% | 0.57 | 10 | 0.383 | 0.575 | 0.958 | 0.279 | 0.393 | 151 |
| Brandon Lowe | 246 | 8.50% | 28.90% | 0.3 | 5 | 0.358 | 0.548 | 0.906 | 0.265 | 0.376 | 139 |
| Willy Adames | 377 | 8.80% | 24.90% | 0.35 | 3 | 0.364 | 0.468 | 0.832 | 0.171 | 0.353 | 124 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 384 | 13.50% | 22.40% | 0.6 | 2 | 0.367 | 0.452 | 0.819 | 0.19 | 0.347 | 120 |
| Eric Sogard | 322 | 8.40% | 12.70% | 0.66 | 6 | 0.356 | 0.438 | 0.795 | 0.144 | 0.338 | 112 |
| Avisail Garcia | 342 | 5.00% | 24.30% | 0.2 | 10 | 0.333 | 0.459 | 0.792 | 0.171 | 0.333 | 110 |
| Tommy Pham | 437 | 9.60% | 18.80% | 0.51 | 15 | 0.33 | 0.441 | 0.771 | 0.19 | 0.327 | 106 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 217 | 11.50% | 21.20% | 0.54 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.418 | 0.752 | 0.174 | 0.32 | 96 |
| Yandy Diaz | 227 | 9.30% | 15.40% | 0.6 | 1 | 0.317 | 0.428 | 0.745 | 0.179 | 0.314 | 98 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 131 | 6.90% | 29.00% | 0.24 | 0 | 0.313 | 0.429 | 0.742 | 0.168 | 0.313 | 97 |
| Joey Wendle | 192 | 4.70% | 15.10% | 0.31 | 7 | 0.318 | 0.387 | 0.705 | 0.127 | 0.302 | 90 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 228 | 8.30% | 21.90% | 0.38 | 0 | 0.303 | 0.368 | 0.67 | 0.132 | 0.289 | 81 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 342 | 5.80% | 20.80% | 0.28 | 14 | 0.257 | 0.39 | 0.647 | 0.189 | 0.27 | 68 |
| Daniel Robertson | 136 | 10.30% | 23.50% | 0.44 | 1 | 0.287 | 0.271 | 0.558 | 0.093 | 0.255 | 57 |
| Mike Zunino | 183 | 5.50% | 33.90% | 0.16 | 0 | 0.235 | 0.365 | 0.6 | 0.188 | 0.254 | 57 |
| Guillermo Heredia | 103 | 9.70% | 29.10% | 0.33 | 2 | 0.267 | 0.244 | 0.512 | 0.093 | 0.237 | 46 |
AdamWainwright vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Before you read any further you need to understand the Cardinals are playing at another level right now, and their pitching is no exception. Wainwright has been lights out lately both at home, and on the road. The Arizona Diamondbacks are also 26th in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs. Everything looks to be in order tonight for Adam basically facing Eve. Or is it? If I had a nickel for every time I jumped on a pitcher with a tendency to be horrible on the road, who suddenly is Nolan Ryan, I would have a whole lot of nickels over the last seven years. On a five-game slate, with no one looking here, I am going to take some chances in GPP play on a Wainwright regression for this 9/23 MLB DFS slate.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Abraham Almonte | 27 | 11.10% | 25.90% | 0.43 | 0 | 0.407 | 0.667 | 1.074 | 0.437 | 171 |
| Ketel Marte | 454 | 10.10% | 14.10% | 0.72 | 8 | 0.396 | 0.577 | 0.973 | 0.404 | 150 |
| Christian Walker | 411 | 8.80% | 26.80% | 0.33 | 7 | 0.336 | 0.48 | 0.815 | 0.341 | 108 |
| Kevin Cron | 53 | 5.70% | 35.80% | 0.16 | 0 | 0.264 | 0.571 | 0.836 | 0.337 | 106 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 478 | 8.40% | 19.00% | 0.44 | 4 | 0.318 | 0.502 | 0.82 | 0.336 | 106 |
| Alex Avila | 158 | 19.60% | 34.20% | 0.57 | 1 | 0.367 | 0.449 | 0.816 | 0.336 | 105 |
| Wilmer Flores | 165 | 6.70% | 10.30% | 0.65 | 0 | 0.352 | 0.367 | 0.718 | 0.314 | 91 |
| Adam Jones | 345 | 5.20% | 19.40% | 0.27 | 2 | 0.314 | 0.418 | 0.732 | 0.311 | 89 |
| Tim Locastro | 142 | 4.90% | 15.50% | 0.32 | 15 | 0.362 | 0.308 | 0.67 | 0.307 | 86 |
| Carson Kelly | 251 | 12.00% | 21.50% | 0.56 | 0 | 0.303 | 0.416 | 0.718 | 0.298 | 81 |
| Nick Ahmed | 444 | 8.10% | 19.10% | 0.42 | 7 | 0.3 | 0.397 | 0.697 | 0.294 | 78 |
| Jarrod Dyson | 382 | 10.70% | 18.10% | 0.59 | 29 | 0.307 | 0.326 | 0.633 | 0.28 | 69 |
| Jake Lamb | 183 | 13.70% | 23.50% | 0.58 | 1 | 0.311 | 0.289 | 0.601 | 0.272 | 64 |
| Josh Rojas | 100 | 9.00% | 24.00% | 0.38 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.3 | 0.58 | 0.258 | 54 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 150 | 5.30% | 14.00% | 0.38 | 1 | 0.273 | 0.303 | 0.576 | 0.251 | 50 |
| Caleb Joseph | 29 | 3.40% | 20.70% | 0.17 | 0 | 0.214 | 0.231 | 0.445 | 0.199 | 16 |
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Patrick Corbin has had eight strikeouts or more in six of his last eight starts. With the Phillies striking out so heavily versus RHPs, the over is the path here.
Zach Eflin has had great success facing Washington this season easily surpassing 3.5 strikeouts in each start. Why should this change tonight? Over.
Despite Adam Wainwright’s recent success I smell serious regression here tonight. Over his last six starts he only has more than four strikeouts one time. The under is where I am looking on this one.
Although the Cardinals are striking out 22.3 percent of the time versus RHPs, the pitcher in question has a lot of four strikeout games. Facing a hot Cardinals team the under is the answer.
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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s eight-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.
**Low Risk
I’m going to get the Coors chalk out of the way to start things off. We have Merrill Kelly taking on the Rockies at home tonight. Kelly owns a 4.52 ERA, 4.61 FIP, and 4.82 SIERA. Kelly is allowing the second highest hard contact rate on the slate at 42.4% and 1.51 HR/9. He tends to struggle the most on the road, allowing righties to slash to a .335 wOBA, .479 SLG, and .325 OBP. He has allowed 28 earned runs in 36 innings pitched against them. Rockies batters are slashing to a .321 wOBA, .171 ISO, and 81 WRC+ over the last month and they get the highest implied run total here tonight.
Preferred Stack: Trevor Story ($4600 FD|$5600 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4500 FD|$5400 DK), Charlie Blackmon ($4700 FD|$5700 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3200 FD|$4200 DK). Yonathon Daza ($2600 FD|$3200 DK) and Raimel Tapia ($3100 FD|$4100 DK) make excellent value plays.
**Low Risk
Arizona hasn’t been as hot as you’d like them to be coming into tonight’s matchup, slashing to a .325 wOBA, .167 ISO, and 97 WRC+. Despite this, the Diamondbacks get a gravy matchup against Peter Lambert, who struggles immensely at home. He is allowing batters to slash to a .399 wOBA, .626 SLG, and .358 OBP. He has allowed 24 earned runs and nine home runs in 29 innings pitched. Colorado/Arizona will be very popular, so get creative in tournaments. Also looks like some pricing we can take advantage of on FanDuel, as Arizona bats are underpriced there.
Preferred Plays: Christian Walker ($3600 FD|$4900 DK), Eduardo Escobar ($4200 FD|$5500 DK), Ketel Marte ($4400 FD|$5500 DK), and David Peralta ($3800 FD|$4900 DK). Jake Lamb ($3100 FD|$4300 DK), Jarrod Dyson ($3200 FD|$5300 DK), and Carson Kelly ($3300 FD|$5200 DK). serve as good value plays.
vs. RHP Erick Fedde (WSH): 5.30 Runs
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Plays: Josh VanMeter ($2600 FD|$3700 DK), Jesse Winker ($3000 FD|$3800 DK), Joey Votto ($3400 FD|$3800 DK), and Eugenio Suarez ($4100 FD|$4500 DK). Aristicles Aquino ($3900 FD|$4400 DK)
vs. RHP Ariel Jurado (TEX): 5.50 Runs
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Plays: Bo Bichette ($4100 FD|$4500 DK), Randal Grichuk ($3000 FD|$3800 DK), Vlad Guererro Jr. ($3600 FD|$4200 DK), and Derek Fisher ($2600 FD|$3900 DK).
vs. RHP Mitch Keller (PIT): 5.25 Runs
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Plays: Mike Trout ($4900 FD|$5400 DK), Justin Upton ($3300 FD|$3600 DK), Shohei Ohtani ($3700 FD|$4300 DK), and Kole Calhoun ($3200 FD|$3800 DK). David Fletcher ($2900 FD|$3300 DK) for value.
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Trust me, the 8/10 DFS pitching slate is pretty darn thin in quality. Sure, there’s a handful of familiar names, some of whom were once solid pitchers. The majority of starting arms feels more like a Saturday special from Guy’s Groovy Grab Bag, one that includes the ever-annoying TBD, otherwise known as the DFS version of Mystery Date (kids, Mystery Date was a…aw, just Google it).
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One of two Cash Game-worthy arms pitching today, Morton is on pace to get the A.L. Cy Young scraps that former Astros teammates Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander will leave on the floor. Morton is on pace to surpass his career-best 201 strikeouts, fanning at least six in eight of his last 10 starts. He’s been a model of consistency, especially for FanDuel users, as he’s recorded at least 30 FD points in 11 of his last 13 starts. The Mariners are almost tailor made for another evening of Morton making opposing lineups look like human air conditioners as Seattle’s offense is 26th in strikeout percentage (25.6%). Morton is difficult to homer against, having allowed just 11 over 143.1 innings of work, with much of that is due to the struggles that come from getting fly balls off of him (30.1% fly ball rate). If you’re going to spend money on an arm, then invest it in Morton.
…or Syndergaard, who’s been ruthlessly efficient over his last five starts, going at least seven innings while allowing three or fewer earned runs in each. Oh yeah: he’s not given up a homer since July 6. His run is part of the reason why the Mets have won 14 of their last 15 as Syndergaard goes against a Nationals lineup he’s handled well this season, holding them to a .179 batting average and striking out 19 over 20 innings (three starts). The Nats have, however, homered three times against him, neatly explaining the 3.60 ERA. Syndergaard’s 3.44 FIP is a better indication of how effective he has been rather than his 3.96 ERA. Like Morton, Thor drops major hammer on those seeking to get solid contact off him, oppressing batters to a 28% hard contact rate while keeping fly balls at a modest 32.6% clip.The Nats’ 95 OPS+ falls just below league average. More concerning about the Nationals’ lineup is how bereft of power they are on the road. Washington loses 60 points off its slugging percentage (.466 to .406) when away from home. Those numbers are worse when looking at their production at Citi Field, where Washington goes .227/.238/391.
Miami’s bats roll over for Soroka almost as easily as my cat rolls over for treats. In 15 innings against Soroka this season, the Marlins have batted .115 with six hits and one earned run against the breakout righty. Soroka continues to be downright stingy when it comes to allowing fly balls, limiting opponents to a paltry 23.6% rate. With that kind of infrequency, it’s easy to see why Soroka has allowed just seven homers this season. He’s more miserly on the road, allowing a OBA of .197 in 12 starts outside the ATL and should be in line for another start in which his infielders stay fairly busy (54.6% ground ball rate).Since this is a family site, I’ll just say the Marlins offense stinks. Not my first choice of description, but rules. Miami is tied for last in OPS+ (78) and have hit a composite .235/.288/.399 since the All-Star Break. In a year of graphic power displays across the league, the Marlins remain the only team in the Majors without at least 100 homers. You can’t use Marlins Park as too much of an excuse; you could put Miami’s lineup in Yankee Stadium and they’d still struggle.
He’s pitching at home, which is why it can be considered safe to start Maeda, who has a 3.17 ERA and a .181 OBA at Dodger Stadium. Maeda also gets bonus points for his work against the Diamondbacks this season, holding Arizona’s bats to a .175 OBA. Home runs, which weren’t an issue in 2018, have reared their ugly head this year with Maeda allowing 1.40 HR/9. That’s due in part to a rise in his fly ball rate, which has gone to 39.1%, almost near the levels that got him in homer purgatory in 2017. Being at home should also further suppress Maeda’s 29.6 hard contact rate. Although the Diamondbacks have been solid in making contact this season, again, the pleasure of being in Dodger Stadium, where he strikes more than a batter per inning, works in Maeda’s favor.
Who else but Sanchez to highlight the punt play? If you saw his 10-strikeout, no-walk effort in his last start with the Blue Jays, last Saturday’s six innings of no-hit ball against the Mariners as part of a combined no-no could have been seen coming (somewhat). Granted, no one expected the no-hitter, but Sanchez had been quietly regaining his control. He enters this evening’s start having gone five straight starts with two walks or fewer and with the Astros bullpen far more reliable than what he had in Toronto, Sanchez can air it out for 5-6 innings with limited damage before hitting the showers. His fastball was more pronounced in his first Houston start, making him yet another apt pupil from Astros pitching coach Brent Strom.
This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s eight game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.
**Low Risk
This Twins lineup is the clear cut top stack on the slate. They are facing Glenn Sparkman, who is by no means a good pitcher. The odds are heavily against him, owning a slate low 12.8% K rate. He is only inducing a 7% swinging strike rate as well. Sparkman is giving up a slate high 84.9% contact rate and 2.04 HR/9 innings. He owns a 5.25 ERA, 5.94 FIP, and 5.44 SIERA. Sparkman is getting absolutely blasted on the road, allowing batters to slash to a .441 wOBA, .674 SLG, and .401 OBP over 33 innings pitched. Glenn Sparkman has allowed 32 earned runs in those 33 innings. The Twins are slashing to a .357 wOBA, .223 ISO, and 122 WRC+ over the last month.
*I want to emphasize the importance of getting a lot of exposure across the board here. Just about every player in this Twins lineup grades out very well today.
Preferred Stack: Jorge Polanco ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), Max Kepler ($4400 FD|$5200 DK), and Nelson Cruz ($4500 FD|$5500 DK). Also consider Miguel Sano ($3700 FD|$4900 DK), Eddie Rosario ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), and Luis Arraez ($2800 FD|$3900 DK).
**Low Risk
Another expensive stack here, but this Astros squad is in a great spot at home. Yusei Kikuchi is on the mound and owns a 5.21 ERA, 5.61 FIP, and 5.16 SIERA. He has a lowly 16.6% K rate and 8.9% swinging strike rate. Kikuchi is giving up 1.89 HR/9 innings and a 45% ground ball rate. His splits are fairly close, allowing batters to slash to a .354 wOBA, .340 OBP, and .510 SLG. The Astros are back to full health and the bats are hot. They are slashing to a .368 wOBA, .214 ISO, and .136 WRC+ over the last month.
Preferred Stack: Jose Altuve ($4300 FD|$5000 DK), Alex Bregman ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), George Springer ($4400 FD|$5300 DK), and Carlos Correa ($3900 FD|$4600 DK).
**Moderate Risk
The Rockies are back home and we all know what happened the last time they faced the Giants. These teams played a four game series against each other back in mid-July and combined for a whopping 55 runs. Shaun Anderson takes the mound, owning a 5.06 ERA, 4.67 FIP, and 5.16 SIERA. Anderson has not been good to righties on the road this season, allowing them to slash to a .416 wOBA, .587 SLG, and .416 OBP. He has allowed 19 earned runs in 21 innings on the road against them. The Rockies are slashing to a .309 wOBA, .149 ISO, and 74 WRC+ right now. These numbers aren’t good but I think this is a nice spot for a slump buster at home.
Preferred Stack: Trevor Story ($4100 FD|$5100 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4200 FD|$5200 DK), Daniel Murphy ($3400 FD|$5200 DK), David Dahl ($3500 FD|$5200 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3100 FD|$4500 DK).
vs. RHP Joe Ross (WSH): 5.20 Runs
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Stack: Ketel Marte ($3900 FD|$4800 DK), Eduardo Escobar ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), David Peralta ($3600 FD|$4000 DK), and Jake Lamb ($2700 FD|$3800 DK). Also consider Jarrod Dyson($3100 FD|$4300 DK).
vs.LHP Dillon Peters (LAA: 6.00 Runs
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Stack: Carlos Santana ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), Jordan Luplow ($2500 FD|$4400 DK), Oscar Mercado ($3600 FD|$4700 DK) and Francisco Lindor ($4100 FD|$5200 DK).
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Stack: Danny Santana ($3700 FD|$5100 DK), Roughned Odor ($3000 FD|$4500 DK), Hunter Pence ($3700 FD|$4800 DK), Willie Calhoun ($3500 FD|$4900 DK) and Shin-soo Choo ($3400 FD|$4700 DK).
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