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Adam Thielen

DFS: Injury Insider- Fades/Plays

Edwin Porras 4 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Week Nine is on the horizon and it’s the time of year when the casual DFS players begin to fall off while the highly competitive people (like yourself) are looking for that extra advantage. Cue the DFS Insider Injury Edge to gain that advantage as I’ll give a comprehensive medical analysis of every fantasy relevant player injury for Week Nine. Let’s optimize those lineups.

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James White

White popped up on the injury report and he was limited in practice on Friday. As a general rule, a midweek downgrade in practice participation is not good. Given that the injury is in relation to his toe, he is probably dealing with a classic case of “turf toe” which is disruption of the ligaments that run on the underside of the big toe. This makes it extremely painful to push off when running and jumping, but it’s worth mentioning that it’s likely not too severe. However, his pain level on Sunday will determine how productive he ultimately is.

To make matters worse, the Patriots are notorious for “miscommunication” when it comes to injury news, and there’s a non-zero chance that they simply used Friday as a rest day for the pass catching back. What’s all of this mean for you? It means that from an injury perspective, I’m fading White in cash games as his range of outcomes are wider than the Mississippi river. Consequently, a potential tournament play at just $3,900 on DraftKings is Rex Burkhead, who has 14 receptions in just four full games this season. Of course, Burkhead is nothing but a deep tournament play.

Davante Adams

Speaking of Adams, he’s got a very good chance at finally playing in Week Nine, but I want to emphasize that I’m fading him in cash this week. I want to see him dig off the line of scrimmage and sprint for a full game before officially declaring him “back”. However feel free to use Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target in tournament lineups as he is astonishingly still third in targets despite missing five games. In fact, he trails Aaron Jones by just six targets for the team lead.

DeSean Jackson

Next on the DFS Insider Injury Edge is DeSean Jackson. The reality is that Jackson might require offseason surgery for this groin/abdomen issue that has now kept him out for six games. With these kinds of injuries even if active, he’s not going to be 100%. He’s a better NFL wide receiver- keeping defenses honest using his speed- than DFS play, even in tournaments. I’m not confident Jackson will be active this week, but regardless I’m fading him due to the nature of this injury and the likelihood that it has not resolved completely. As a result, Dallas Goedert ($3,100 on DraftKings) will likely continue to absorb targets as defenses key in on Zach Ertz, making Goedert a deep tournament option at tight end.

Adam Thielen

Thielen suffered a hamstring injury in Week Seven and has not played since then. He practiced all week though it was in a limited capacity and Friday was no exception. I’ve mentioned repeatedly that hamstring strains can sideline players for up to three weeks, so do not be surprised if Thielen is inactive again on Sunday. However if he is active, I’m fading him in cash and only using him in tournaments until I see that he’s truly recovered. The $7,800 price tag on DraftKings is just too much for me at this time. The last discussion point here is his teammate, Stefon Diggs. If Thielen is inactive, Diggs is a smash in cash at just $7,600 on DraftKings against a below average Kansas City Chiefs team. If Thielen is active, I’m only using one or the other (not both) in tournament lineups).

Dede Westbrook

I believe that Westbrook’s injury is coming from a potential irritation of nerves from the neck, radiating to his shoulder. This can cause numbness, tingling, and pain in both the neck and shoulder. For this reason, there’s a chance he is inactive, but either way I’m fading Westbrook completely. If Westbrook does not play in London on Sunday, Chris Conley is a fine option in single game tournaments at just $6,800 as he scored a season high 23.3 DraftKings points last week when Westbrook went down.

That’s it for this week’s DFS Insider Injury Edge. The goal here is to give you more context about fantasy relevant injuries to help you set your lineups on Sunday. Make sure you check back with me for updates on the status of certain players or any developments. Week Nine is your week to cash in.

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4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

DFS: Start/Sit Injury Projection – Play or Fade?

Edwin Porras 5 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Week Eight is in the books, so let’s move on to the DFS Start/Sit Injury Projection. In this week’s article I’ll discuss a few players who could make their return from injuries in Week Nine as well as a few others who are planning to play through the bumps and bruises. I’ll also discuss whether or not these players can perform well enough from an injury perspective or fade them. I’ll start with the Thursday night game.

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David Johnson

I’ll start with the elephant in the room. What’s going on with David Johnson? Well, if we knew exactly what the deal is, we wouldn’t have to rely on Kingsbury for information. The coach has proven to have quite the poker face in terms of injuries. For example, Christian Kirk, who was a “game-time” decision last week, performed extremely well and did not appear to be limited. What we do know is that D.J.’s injury is related to his ankle, which generally means it’s either a lateral sprain, or of the high ankle variety. It’s not uncommon for players to suffer lateral ankle sprains, try to play too quickly, and re-injure themselves. Conversely, a high ankle sprain typically would not allow a player to come back after one week as DJ did in Week Seven. So, what does all of this mean? If D.J. is dealing with a re-aggravated lateral ankle sprain, the Thursday turn around simply might be too quick of a turnaround. Even if he’s active, I don’t want to use him in any Showdown slates as the 49ers defense is as stout as they come. Fade him.

Matt Breida

Unbelievably, this is Breida’s first appearance on the DFS Start/Sit Injury Projection. It seems that he always misses at least one quarter of every game due to injury. However he rarely is in danger of missing time. On Sunday he was forced out of action due to an ankle injury, and I’m concerned about the exact mechanism of injury. I tweeted about it here. Long story short, I think Breida may be dealing with a high ankle sprain, which depending on severity can hold him out for several weeks. I would not plan on having Breida in any lineups, but even if he suits up, I’m sitting him.

Patrick Mahomes

No. Not yet.

Davante Adams

Week Nine marks 38 days since we’ve seen Adams on a football field. That’s about five weeks, so there is a high probability he plays against the Chargers seeing as grade II turf toe injuries take four to six weeks to heal. Check back with me as the week progresses because this would be the game to use the Packers’ target hog at $7,100 on DraftKings. If he’s active, I have no concerns of re-injury for Adams. Lock. Smash. Cash.

Marquise Brown

“Hollywood” is another player who I suspect is dealing with a high ankle injury. The reason for that thought is due to the fact that he has not played in three weeks, and is now planning on a Week Nine return. Regardless of the past, I’m not afraid to use Brown in tournaments as it relates to injury. However, I am extremely hesitant to play him against the New England Patriots defense.

Dede Westbrook

I’m nervous about Westbrook’s availability in Week Nine. The immediate thought when players are dealing with shoulder and neck injuries is nerve root irritation. The spinal nerves exit all throughout the spine, and the ones from the neck go directly to the shoulder and upper back. When nerves are irritated they can cause shoulder and neck pain, numbness and tingling, and tend to give that “asleep” feeling all the way down to the hand. Now, this is speculation on my end, but that type of injury is definitely within the realm of possibilities. If he’s active, I’m sitting Westbrook.

James Conner

Conner has an AC joint sprain. That means the ligament connecting the outside portion of his clavicle bone and the tip of his shoulder bone was damaged to some extent. These injuries can be minor or cost players up to four weeks of action. Check back with me as we’re not sure of the severity quite yet, but if he manages to suit up, there is a risk that he re-injures the joint. I’m staying away in cash and would consider Jaylen Samuels in tournaments instead. Sit Conner.

Adam Thielen

Say it with me class: grade I and II hamstring strains can cost players one to three weeks of missed time. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times. Thielen’s chances of playing are better than last week, but I’m not convinced he’s ready yet. Check back with me to read about his practice participation and the reports out of Minnesota. If he practices, I wouldn’t hesitate to use him against the Chiefs who can’t seem to cover running backs or slot receivers.

Thanks for reading the DFS Start/Sit Injury Projection. Make sure to check back here for updates as they come.

Featured image courtesy of Keith Allison.

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

DFS: Week Eight Injury Watch

5 years ago

written by

Week Eight brought yet another flurry of injuries to discuss as the NFL season carries on. As always I’ll mention every DFS relevant player and their respective injury (or suspected injury) and what to expect moving forward from a medical perspective. Enjoy this first version of the Week Eight Injury Watch!

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Adam Thielen

Thielen injured his hamstring on Sunday afternoon in the first half against the Lions, and was ruled out for the rest of the game. Thielen and the Vikings remain optimistic about his availability, but I’m not so certain we should follow suit. As I’ve mentioned week after week, grade I and grade II hamstring strains can take anywhere from one to three weeks to heal. Thielen did not practice Tuesday, only adding to the concern that the swelling and pain are likely still significant. It would be an extraordinary feat if Thielen is able to play on Thursday.

Update: Thielen has been officially ruled out.

Kerryon Johnson

Kerryon is now on IR following a “procedure” on Tuesday. Consider firing up Ty Johnson up who is $4,900 on Draft Kings and $5,200 on FanDuel.

Will Fuller

Fuller, who has a history of hamstring strains, has already been ruled out by the Texans so consider both Keke Coutee and Kenny Stills as they are under $6,000 on FanDuel and under $5,000 on Draft Kings.

Matt Ryan

Ryan was injured after being sacked by Aaron Donald on Sunday. I tweeted about it here. The Falcons are acting like it isn’t too serious, but I have my concerns. Based on the mechanism of injury, he either has an eversion ankle sprain (think Keke Coutee in the preseason) or a high ankle sprain (think Saquon Barkley). Both of those injuries (if significant enough) can cost players between one and four weeks. Check back with me about Ryan’s availability later this week after more reports become available.

Update: Ryan did not practice on Wednesday but there are reports that he could be good to go on Sunday. This tells us he likely avoided the dreaded high ankle sprain. Check back with me for further updates.

Davante Adams

Thursday marks four weeks since Adams picked up this grade II turf toe injury, making Week Eight his first real shot at playing again. Grade II turf toe can take between four and six weeks to heal, so it isn’t a slam dunk that he’ll play just yet. There is still a chance that the pain has no fully subsided, so make sure to bookmark this article as I’ll continue to update it as the week progresses.

Christian Kirk

Next up on the DFS Week Weight Injury Watch is Christian Kirk. Kirk suffered a high ankle sprain in Week Four and like Adams, has his first legitimate shot at suiting up on Sunday. Last week he was a game time decision, so that tells us that he’s getting close. As always, make sure to check back with me for more updates.

Update: Kirk practiced again in a limited capacity on Wednesday. This is a sign that he is indeed moving towards being active on Sunday against the Saints.

David Johnson

Last week D.J. was the cause of many headaches around the DFS community as his ankle injury was evidently much more severe than Kingsbury made it sound. Hopefully you read my Final Injury Report here and backed off of your D.J. shares. This week, I’ll continue to monitor his progress and try to gather new information before Sunday.

Update: Johnson did not practice on Wednesday but that doesn’t move the needle on his status one way or the other. As the week progresses, I’ll continue to watch his status. With the signing of Zach Zenner and Alfred Morris it’s important to know that third string running back D.J. Foster is also injured. Neither of those two newly signed backs have ever led a backfield and together have been cut by four or five teams within the last calendar year. Additionally, they profile as a pass catcher and a grinder respectively. All of this is to say that I believe they’re merely depth signings with the Cardinals keeping worst case scenario in mind.

Additions

Adrian Peterson

Peterson told reporters this week that he had an MRI and was diagnosed with a grade II lateral ankle sprain and a grade I high ankle sprain. Now, part of me does not believe the full extent of this diagnosis as no human on this planet would play in an NFL game with these injuries. The flip side of my thinking is that AP has proven to us time after time that he is not like the rest of us. In fact, he returned to NFL action and was in the running for MVP in 2013 just nine months removed from an ACL tear. The reality is that the truth about his current injuries probably lies somewhere in the middle. Unfortunately, “the middle” is significant enough to scare me away from using much of AP tonight, especially in cash.

Alvin Kamara

Kamara is banged up and missed practice on Wednesday as he is currently dealing with a knee sprain (likely MCL) and a high ankle sprain (some people in the media like to say “high ankle issue” but make no mistake, it is indeed a sprain despite the severity). There is also a belief that since the previously mentioned Zach Zenner was released by the Saints that Kamara is close to returning. Although this could be true, there is also a good chance Zenner was signed prior to knowing the severity or extent of Kamara’s injuries. The point I’m making is that I’m not convinced Kamara plays this week just yet.

Drew Brees

Brees’ situation is still cloudy as he just started practicing again in a limited fashion on Wednesday. He tells the media it’s his plan to start, but still isn’t sure of his strength. As a quarterback, he requires close to full strength and definitely full fine motor control of his surgically repaired thumb making me slightly concerned about him playing this week. On average, athletes can return to sport between four and seven weeks. One specific study done by Werner and colleagues found that in a sample of nine skill position football players, the return to sport time was seven weeks. Arguments against Brees returning are obvious: the Saints have not lost since his injury, Teddy Bridgewater is rolling, and NOLA has a Week Nine bye. Why bring Brees back this week if he’s admittedly not sure of himself just yet? I would not be surprised if Brees waits until after Week Nine, but stay tuned for more updates.

That’s it for the DFS Week Eight Injury Watch. Start building those lineups and check back with me for up to the minute injury updates.

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Image courtesy of Keith Allison.

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week Seven: Touches and Targets Outlooks

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Seven 11-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.

High Tier

NFL DFS WR: Cooper Kupp (LAR) ($7800 FD|$7400 DK)

69 Targets (2nd in NFL), 45 Receptions (3rd), 11 yards per reception, 242 YAC (1st), Four TDs.

I just don’t see how you do not roster Cooper Kupp this week. The Falcons defense has certainly seen better days. They are the worst team in the NFL in getting to the QB, logging only five sacks through their first six. An ineffective pass rush combined with a very beatable secondary would yield a Falcons defense that his given up over 331 yards through the air over their last three games. Cooper Kupp averages 11 receptions per game and is so good after the catch. He is Jared Goff’s go to, who I also expect to have his best game in 2019.

NFL DFS WR: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) ($8000 FD|$7800 DK)

56 Targets (5th in league), 40 Receptions (5th in league), 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

It looks like everyone is going to hit the snooze button on Deandre Hopkins, but if I were you I would absolutely keep him in your player pool. He is going to sneak up on us one of these slates where he is sub 10% owned, like this week. He has an excellent matchup and even despite his lackluster fantasy performance as of late, he still see’s a 28% target share within the offense, fourth best in the NFL.

NFL DFS WR: T.Y. Hilton (IND) ($7600 FD|$5900 DK)

30 Targets, 24 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, Four TDs. 36% RZ target share**

I want to start out by saying that I think T.Y. Hilton is grossly underpriced on DK given his history against the Houston Texans. In 14 career games, Hilton averages nine targets, five receptions, and 103 yards per game. Houston consistently gets burned by WR’s in 2019 (Thomas, Allen, Ridley, Hill, and even Ginn Jr.) so I’m more than okay with eating the chalk here. You just can’t ignore what he has done in the past and what he is doing this season, he is the Colts one true weapon and I expect a big Sunday.

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen ($7500 FD|$6700 DK), Adam Thielen ($7100 FD|$6900 DK).

Mid Tier

NFL DFS WR: D.J. Chark Jr. (JAX) ($6600 FD|$6000 DK)

44 Targets, 30 Receptions, 17 yards per reception, Five TDs. Fourth most deep targets in NFL (13).

Grand Master Minshew had a bit of a the struggle last week in what ended up being a defensive slug fest. I fully expect a bounce back from the rookie QB and there couldn’t be a better spot than against the Bengals. Cincinnati isn’t as bad through the air (241 YPG) as they are against the rush (184 YPG), but still bad enough in coverage that I can see D.J. Chark continue his dominance. It is also worth noting Dede Westbrook is listed as a game-time decision on Sunday, James O’Shaugnessy TE OUT, and George Swain TE OUT. Rookie TE Josh Oliver will see his first career start.

NFL DFS WR: Robert Woods ($7300 FD|$5900 DK)/Brandin Cooks ($6700 FD|$5400 DK) (LAR)

Woods: 51 targets, 31 receptions, 11 yards per catch, one TD.

Cooks: 37 targets, 23 receptions, 15 yards per catch, one TD.

The same applies as I talked about with Cooper Kupp. Robert Woods is another receiver who is great with YAC (173) and gets his fair share of targets (51). Brandin Cooks is always boom or bust, but if he Booms for two deep bombs you’ll be on the outside looking in. Definitely worth a shot in tourneys, I would alternate between the three Rams receivers in multiple lineups.

NFL DFS TE: Evan Engram (NYG) ($6800 FD|$6500 DK)

48 targets, 33 receptions, 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

If you’re wanting to spend up at tight end in Week Seven , Evan Engram is your top option. If you don’t know by now, the Arizona Cardinals are the worst defense in the NFL against tight ends, allowing nearly 25 FPTS per game. The Cardinals do get Patrick Peterson back, which will certainly help, but they’ve struggled for a couple years against the position, even when he is healthy.

NFL DFS TE: Tyler Lockett (SEA) ($6500 FD|$6600 DK)

I put Tyler Lockett in here just so I can advise you not to play him. Marlon Humphrey is like super glue and has shut down the likes of Odell Beckham Jr., JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd, and Sammy Watkins. Tyler Lockett is no where near the caliber of the first two listed so I can see Marlon shutting this guy down easily, forcing the ball to DK Metcalf who I actually do like. He will draw softer coverage and the Ravens have been bad against WR2. Marcus Peters was traded to the Ravens and will play on Sunday, bolstering a weaker secondary.

NFL DFS TE: George Kittle (SF) ($7100 FD|$6700 DK)

88% Snap Share. 37 Targets, 31 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, One TD.

George Kittle is a premier tight end option on a week to week basis. I’m not crazy about the spend up but if you’re looking for a safe floor, he is a good option with Deebo Samuel out this Sunday.

NFL DFS WR: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) ($5600 FD|$6100 DK)

99% Snap Share. 52 targets, 35 receptions, 12 yards per recption, Two TDs.

The outing between the Giants and Cardinals screams pass funnel game. These two teams are both in the bottom three in terms of passing yards per game. They are also two of the fastest paced offense in the 2019 season. There’s a lot of love to go around with Christian Kirk slated to play, and David Johnson said he will be good to go for Sunday. I will have exposure to all three key offensive pieces in tournaments, including Kyler Murray.

NFL DFS WR: DK Metcalf (SEA) ($6200 FD|$4800 DK)

31 Targets, 16 Receptions, 21 yards per reception (1st in NFL), Two Tds.

I’m a bit nervous about this play, I really need to see how Marcus Peters lines up with the defense, but it’s hard to say at this point. The Ravens are prone to giving up huge plays, particularly to the WR2 position. Seattle is 17th in the league in terms of big plays and Baltimore is giving up an average of 6.3 yards per play, third worst in the league.

NFL DFS WR: Mark Andrews (BAL) ($6700 FD|$4900 DK)

47 Targets, 33 Receptions, 12 yards per reception, Three TDs.

I’m pretty sure I’d rather spend only $100 more for Evan Engram on FD, but love Mark Andrews low price on DK. He hasn’t seen less than seven targets in any game this season and logged another healthy week of practice. Hollywood Brown will likely not start this game, increasing Andrews target share. The Seahawks give up the fourth most FPTS to opposing tight ends (15.4 FPTS per game).

NFL DFS WR: Calvin Ridley (ATL) ($5500 FD|$5300 DK)

38 Targets, 27 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Four TDs.

I want exposure on the Atlanta side of this high implied total with the Rams vs. Falcons, but I’m not interested in spending up for Julio Jones. Calvin Ridley has seen a steady share of targets (one game with less than six targets) and should see at the very least see another six targets in a game where Atlanta is going to have to rely on their passing game to keep up with the average of five TDs per game that the defense has given up over their last three games.

NFL DFS TE: Austin Hooper (ATL) ($6600 FD|$5300 DK)

51 targets, 42 receptions, 11 yards per reception, Three TDs.

Atlanta won’t be running the ball this game and Matt Ryan is averaging close to 50 throws per game, Hooper should plenty of looks at home. Austin Hooper has only one game with less than six targets.

NFL DFS WR: John Brown (BUF) ($5900 FD|$5500 DK)

Josh Allen has been an absolute monster against the Dolphins, averaging 300 yards per game through the air, and over 100 yards on the ground. John Brown can take the top off of any defense and Miami, as we all know, is bottom three in every statistical category on defense. I question how often the Bills throw in this game, but I can see Brown easily reaching value with a big play or two.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd (CIN) ($5600 FD|$5600 FD), Auden Tate (5900 FD|$4500 DK)

Low Tier/Punts

NFL DFS WR: Zay Jones (OAK) ($4500 FD|$3100 DK)

Near min price on both sites, lining up at the WR1 for Oakland with no Tyrell Williams.

NFL DFS WR: Allen Lazard (GBP) ($4500 FD|$3000 DK)

Minimum price on both sites, lining up at the WR1 position for Green Bay with Devante Adams out, Marquez Valdes-Scantling doubtful, and Geronimo Allison ruled out.

NFL DFS TE: Josh Oliver (JAX) ($4000 FD|$2900 DK)

Josh Oliver is below minimum price on both sites and will be the lone tight end with James O’Shaugnessy and George Swaim confirmed out this week. The absence of Dede Westbrook would be a huge boost for the rookie tight end making his 2019 season debut. Oliver should have an immediate role in the Jacksonville offense.

Honorable Mention: Cole Beasley ($5600 FD|$4700 DK) Dante Pettis ($5100 FD|$4100 DK)

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Featured Image via Keith Allison

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week Six: Touches and Targets Outlooks

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Six 10-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.

High Tier

NFL DFS WR: Julio Jones (ATL) ($8500 FD|$8000 DK)

77% Snap Share. 44 Targets, 26 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Four TDs.

Another down week for Julio Jones in Week Five. I have to imagine he’s going to have a big game sooner rather than later, and he gets the matchup for it in Week Six. Matt Ryan has the third most passing yards through six weeks (1636) and other than the Colts game has thrown 43 times or more. Julio Jones should get plenty of targets this week.

NFL DFS WR: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) ($8400 FD|$7400 DK)

100% Snap Share. 44 Targets, 31 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

Same applies as above, DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t quite gotten things going yet but draws a favorable matchup against a very weak K.C. secondary. Ownership should be identical for Fuller and Hopkins so I will definitely have shares of both, just not paired with Watson.

NFL DFS WR: Amari Cooper (DAL) ($8100 FD|$7000 DK)

91% Snap Share. 43 Targets, 32 Receptions, 16 yards per reception, Five TDs. Fourth best fantasy point per game output for WR’s (22).

Amari Cooper comes in as my top rated receiver for the Week Six slate. He is seeing a nice target share on a week to week basis (26%) and is facing a bottom 10 defense vs. the pass. Not to mention the Jets are missing two more defensive lineman on top of C.J. Mosley this week, so I can see the Cowboys having their way in New York.

NFL DFS WR: Adam Thielen (MIN) ($8100 FD|$7000 DK)

77% Snap Share. 30 Targets, 20 Receptions, 15 yards per reception, Five TDs. 42% red zone target share**

I know the big debate this week is play Stefon Diggs or Adam Thielen. My personal take is I favor Thielen just based on his red zone utilization. He is seeing a ton of looks down towards the goal line and that’s what we want if we’re going to pay off his salary. The Eagles are in the bottom six against the pass and we saw Kirk Cousins turn things around against a lowly Giants defense last week. I’m not necessarily crazy about Cousins this week, but a good matchup for the receivers nonetheless.

Honorable Mention: Michael Thomas ($8200 FD|$8400 DK), Michael Thomas ($8200 FD|$7800 DK).

Mid Tier

NFL DFS WR: Will Fuller V (HOU) ($6600 FD|$6000 DK)

100% Snap Share. 39 Targets, 28 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Three TDs.

Will Fuller reeled in 14 of his 16 targets for 217 yards and three TD’s in Week Five. I like both Deandre Hopkins and Fuller against a pourous K.C. secondary and expect a high scoring shootout. I will have equal shares of both in my lineups.

NFL DFS WR: Tyreek Hill (K.C.) ($7400 FD|$6900 DK)

Tyreek Hill is back from a clavicle injury and you shouldn’t hesitate to plug him in. Having him back in the Chiefs offense will really open things up and he naturally will draw a majority of the targets.

NFL DFS TE: Mark Andrews (BAL) ($6300 FD|$4800 DK)

48% Snap Share. 39 targets, 28 receptions, 11 yards per reception, Three TDs.

Not quite the fantasy output I expected from Andrews in Week Five, but they did face a Pittsburgh defense that has made vast improvements on defense and after all, it was an AFC North matchup. It looks like Marquise Brown is highly likely to play after coming down awkwardly on his ankle during his lone touchdown reception last week. This will instantly give Mark Andrews a boost and he almost always has the advantage over opposing safeties. This week is no different.

NFL DFS TE: Zach Ertz (PHI) ($6500 FD|$5200 DK)

93% Snap Share. 45 Targets, 29 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, One TDs.

Zach Ertz has seen seven or more targets in every game this season and is a big chain mover in the middle of the field. He is one of the better players in terms of YAC and offers high upside again here this week with Alshon Jeffrey being mainly used in the red zone. I do think this game could be a sneaky shootout so keep consider Ertz as a tournament play in Week Six.

NFL DFS TE: George Kittle (SF) (Ques.) ($6500 FD|$5200 DK)

88% Snap Share. 29 Targets, 23 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, One TD.

Another tight end to consider if you’re trying to pivot off of Hooper at a similar price is George Kittle. Other than Week two against the Bengals, Kittle has seen eight or more targets. Vegas currently has this game pegged at a 50 point game total. We could see a shootout here with the Rams giving up 271 yards or more in their last three games and Aqib Talib is out so that should open things up even more. If you like a SF stack this weak I would pair Jimmy Garoppolo and Kittle.

NFL DFS WR: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) ($5600 FD|$6100 DK)

99% Snap Share. 44 targets, 29 receptions, 12 yards per recption, Two TDs.

Christian Kirk is listed as a game-time decision this Sunday so I’m back on Larry Fitzgerald. He comes in at a great price again considering how much Atlanta is giving up through the air their last three games (317). If David Johnson is anything short of 100% this will only increase the target share for Fitz in Week Six.

NFL DFS WR: Robert Woods (LAR) ($7100 FD|$5600 DK)

93% Snap Share. 47 Targets, 31 Receptions, 11 yards per reception.

The Rams are at home with one of the higher implied totals on the slate. They have a pass heavy offense, averaging 46 pass plays per game (second most). Cooper Kupp is where most will naturally levitate to if they’re getting exposure to this game, but Woods is a top five receiver in terms of targets and YAC (173). He may not have found his way into the end zone yet, but he has big play upside in an NFC West tilt where the Rams need to find a way to win if they have a chance to keep up with San Francisco and Seattle for the division.

NFL DFS WR: Tyler Lockett (SEA) ($6300 FD|$6400 DK)

96% Snap Share. 36 Targets, 30 Receptions, 12 yards per reception, Three TDs.

I’m looking at this play mostly due to low ownership. His target share has gone down the last two weeks and he will draw a Cleveland Browns defense who have been fairly stingy against the pass, sacking the QB 16 times (7th best) and allowing just over 200 yards per game through the air. Despite the tough matchup, I think Carson can really open things up in the pass and Russell Wilson has a way of getting things done, even under pressure.

NFL DFS WR: Calvin Ridley (ATL) ($5500 FD|$5700 DK)

78% Snap Share. 32 Targets, 21 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Three TDs.

I’m not crazy about Calvin Ridley’s 14% target share, but he plays in an offense that is passing the ball almost 50 times per game. The Falcons and Cardinals are also top ten in terms of offensive pace, and their defenses both are subject give up a lot of points through the air. I am prioritizing Julio Jones, but I do like exposure to Ridley just based on sheer volume in a high passing offense.

NFL DFS WR: Michael Gallup (DAL) ($6100 FD|$5600 DK)

95% Snap Share. 29 targets, 20 receptions, 17 yards per reception, One TD.

Michael Gallup has had a very solid floor in DFS NFL through his first three starts. He has seen seven or more targets and 14 targets in his last game against GB. I don’t expect Cowboys to be playing from behind, so he likely won’t draw quite as many targets in Week Six, but I do love the safe floor he provides at a very nice price on both sites.

NFL DFS WR: Terry McLaurin (WAS) ($6600 FD|$6000 DK)

Case Keenum is back under center for the Week Six tank bowl. Miami, as we all know, has been absolutely horrendous on all facets of defense. They are giving up the second most yards through the air (296) and the most on the ground (175). Redskins aren’t far behind in terms of offensive efficiency, but I do think the Dolphins are outmatched, even by Washington. Terry McLaurin has seen seven or more targets in every outing this season and now has Keenum back under center.

Honorable Mention: DJ Chark Jr. (JAX) ($6500 FD|$5500 FD)

Low Tier/Punts

NFL DFS WR: Dede Westbrook (JAX) ($5400 FD|$5100 DK)

100% Snap Share. 37 Targets, 23 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, One TD.

NFL DFS WR: Marquise Goodwin (LAR) ($5200 FD|$4500 DK)

63% Snap Share. 12 Targets, 9 Receptions, 18 yards per reception, One TD.

NFL DFS TE: Hayden Hurst (BAL) ($4400 FD|$3200 DK)

73% Snap Share. 16 Targets, 12 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, One TD.

NFL DFS WR: Mohamed Sanu (ATL) ($6000 FD|$4500 DK)

82% Snap Share. 36 Targets, 29 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, One TD.

NFL DFS WR: Jamison Crowder (NYJ) ($5400 FD|$4000 DK)

96% Snap Share. 31 Targets, 22 Receptions, 8 yards per reception, Zero TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Willie Snead (BAL) ($5000 FD|$5500 DK)

75% Snap Share. 16 Targets, 12 Receptions, 17 yards per reception, Two TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Robby Anderson (NYJ) ($4600 FD|$3300 DK)

45% Snap Share. 21 Targets, 11 Receptions, 12 yards per reception, Zero TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Preston Williams (MIA) ($5600 FD|$4100 DK)

81% Snap Share. 30 Targets, 15 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, One TD.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL Premium

Winner’s Circle: Week 6 NFL DFS Round Table Discussion

5 years ago

written by

Our Team of DFS Pros have a open discussion on building their FanDuel lineups for Week 6 NFL DFS. Get into the minds of DFS Pros Jason Mezrahi, David Jones, and Javier Prellezo. 1) Who is you top play on this slate at each position?Jason MezrahiQB- Deshaun WatsonRB- Malcolm BrownWR- DeAndre HopkinsT...

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week Five: Touches and Targets Outlooks

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Five 12-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.

High Tier

NFL DFS WR: Julio Jones (ATL) ($8200 FD|$7700 DK)

77% Snap Share. 37 Targets, 23 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Four TDs.

Julio Jones comes in as a top play once again in Week Five. Bit of a disappointing performance in Week Four as Matt Ryan threw the ball 53 times for nearly 400 yards and Jones only drew seven of those targets. Julio Jones and the Falcons will look to rebound against a beatable Houston Texans secondary and a defense that ranks 13th overall DVOA.

NFL DFS WR: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) ($8500 FD|$7800 DK)

100% Snap Share. 36 Targets, 24 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins correlation will likely be the heaviest chalk in Week Five. I’m not as crazy as everyone else is about this matchup. Yes, the Falcons rank 25th in terms of getting pressure on the QB but Houston ranks 31st in allowing pressure against the QB (11.9% ADJ. Sack Rate). Atlanta faced a Tennessee team in Week Four that struggles the most in the league in protecting the QB and managed to not register even one sack. If the offensive line can give Watson the protection he absolutely needs to be successful than I can see Houston having a great day, but it is risky.

NFL DFS RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) ($8900 FD|$8700 DK)

100% Snap Share, 31 Targets, 25 Receptions for 218 yards, 86 carries for 411 yards, 6 yards per touch, Four TDs.

I predicted 30 touches last week for Christian McCaffrey and he ended up with 37 touches for 179 all-purpose yards and a TD. The entire offense revolves around him and he will continue to receiver monster work loads week in and out. CMC is once again viable in all formats in Week Five.

NFL DFS RB: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) ($8800 FD|$8300 DK)

71% Snap Share, 14 Targets, 11 Receptions, 63 yards. 73 carries for 324 yards, 4.4 yards per touch, Three TDs.

After starting out looking like the a perennial defense, the Packers have come back down to reality and rank 26th against the run in Week Five. They surrender over 140 yards per game on the ground but they do have a very good secondary. This is clearly Zeke’s day and I will have plenty of shares.

Mid Tier

NFL DFS WR: Adam Thielen (MIN) ($6900 FD|$6700 DK)

93% Snap Share. 22 Targets, 13 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Three TDs.

Adam Thielen expressed his frutration with the poor passing performance by the Vikings offense. All the right pieces are there, unfortunately it falls on one guy and that is Kirk Cousins. Thielen is in a great spot, as is Stefon Diggs. I’d like to think we can expect a breakout performance in the passing game against the Giants who allow nearly 300 yards through the air per game, but Cousins is just not getting it done.

NFL DFS WR: Alshon Jeffrey (PHI) ($6700 FD|$5900 DK)

83% Snap Share. 15 Targets, 8 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

Very nice matchup for Alshon Jeffrey against a Jets defense that gives up nearly 300 yards through the air per game. His numbers aren’t there just due to injury early in the season but he is a good play at a fair price, particularly on DK.

NFL DFS TE: Mark Andrews (BAL) ($6100 FD|$4800 DK)

48% Snap Share. 32 targets, 23 receptions, 266 receiving yards. Three TDs.

You didn’t fall asleep on my boy, did you? Mark Andrews has been dealing with a foot injury all season but heads into Week Five without an injury designation (finally) and practiced in full on Friday. The Steelers do struggle defending slot receivers and Andrews is lining up in the slot at a 40% clip. Outside of Andrews being Lamar Jackson’s favorite target, his size advantage, and the fact that he’s quickly becoming a top tier NFL tight end, I see no reason not to play him.

NFL DFS WR: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) ($5800 FD|$6000 DK)

99% Snap Share. 36 targets, 23 receptions, 300 yards, Two TDs.

Christian Kirk is out so that’s going to give Fitz a nice boost in looks. The Bengals look decent against the pass, but with David Johnson in such a good spot I just see this Cardinals offense being able to stay on balance and effectively throw the ball just as well as they will run it on Sunday.

NFL DFS WR: Tyler Boyd (CIN) ($6700 FD|$6500 DK)

87% Snap Share. 38 Targets, 27 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, Zero TDs.

Same situation as the Cardinals, John Ross is out for the next 6-8 weeks so Boyd should draw a nice chunk of those targets against a sub-par defense.

NFL DFS RB: Joe Mixon (CIN) ($7100 FD|$6100 DK)

95% Snap Share. 54 touches, 202 yards, One TD.

The Bengals offensive line has been questionable, but the Cardinals surrender nearly 150 yards per game on the ground. Mixon is still looking for his footing on the season and this is as good of a spot as any to find it.

Low Tier/Punts

NFL DFS WR: Will Fuller (HOU) ($5700 FD|$4500 DK)

100% Snap Share. 23 Targets, 14 Receptions, 13 yards per reception.

NFL DFS WR: KeeSean Johnson (ARI) ($4600 FD|$3500 DK)

63% Snap Share. 19 Targets, 11 Receptions, 10 yards per reception.

Christian Kirk is out, boost in targets for Keesean Johnson.

NFL DFS WR: Auden Tate (CIN) ($5300 FD|$3500 DK)

73% Snap Share. 18 Targets, 11 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, Zero TDs.

I hate Auden Tate’s price on Fanduel but I’m more than fine with the $3500 tag on DK. Tate should see a boost as well with no John Ross.

NFL DFS WR: John Brown (BUF) ($5500 FD|$5100 DK)

90% Snap Share. 34 Targets, 23 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Two TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Phillip Dorsett (NEP) ($5400 FD|$4900 DK)

71% Snap Share. 23 Targets, 15 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, Three TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Calvin Ridley (ATL) ($5400 FD|$4900 DK)

76% Snap Share. 23 Targets, 16 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, Two TDs.

NFL DFS TE: Tyler Eifert (CIN) ($4600 FD|$3300 DK)

45% Snap Share. 17 Targets, 11 Receptions, 81 yards, One TD.

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NFL

NFL DFS Week Two: Touches and Targets Outlooks

5 years ago

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This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Two 13-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.

High Tier

NFL DFS WR: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) ($9000 FD|$8100 DK)

61% Reception rate. 13 Targets, 8 receptions, 13.9 yards per reception (Week One).

DeAndre Hopkins is such a key part of this offense and his 100% snap share makes him a top wide receiver play week in and out. Sammy Watkins had a huge game with nine receptions, 198 yards, and three touchdowns. I’m not not a believer in this Jacksonville defense and I do not think Week One was an outlier. I’ll take Hopkins as a top play in Week Two.

NFL DFS WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) ($8100 FD|$7500 DK)

75% Reception rate. 8 Targets, 6 Receptions, 9.8 yards per reception (Week One).

Let’s keep this one simple. The Bengals just tossed over 400 passing yards and two TDs against the Seattle defense in their house. Big Ben is better at home through history, but we have seen those splits come closer together the last two years. The Steelers lost two massive pieces on their offense and the 33-3 beat-down in Foxborough doesn’t bode much confidence. Nonetheless I think we have to consider a Big Ben/Smith-Schuster correlation for tournaments if you’re running multiple lines. Smith-Schuster just as one-off is fine too.

NFL DFS WR: Michael Thomas (NOS) ($8500 FD|$8000 DK)

77% Reception rate. 13 Targets, 10 Receptions, 12.3 yards per reception (Week One).

Michael Thomas should draw a good bit of ownership on Sunday, although he does draw Marcus Peters in coverage. This game comes in with the highest score total so this is definitely a spot you’ll want to highly consider. There isn’t a whole lot of weight to back the Drew Brees dome/no dome theory. Any QB is going to be better when not dealing with the elements, but Brees has identical completion percentages, (66% no dome, 69% dome) and not a big flux in points scored on the road versus at home.

NFL DFS WR: Keenan Allen (LAC) ($7700 FD|$7600 DK)

80% Reception rate. 10 Targets, 8 Receptions, 15.4 yards per reception (Week One).

Keenan Allen is probably my bottom play in terms of top receivers. He doesn’t get that great of a matchup but the Chargers really have no other weapons outside of Allen and Ekeler. Mike Williams is banged up and Hunter Henry is out again. The Chargers have limited options so we should see Rivers try to get the ball to who he is comfortable with and that is Keenan Allen.

NFL DFS RB: Saquon Barkley (NYG) ($9200 FD|$9200 DK)

85% Snap Share, 6 Targets, 4 Receptions, 9.3 yards per touch (Week One).

Game-script affected the way Saquon Barkley was utilized in the Giants offense. He only had 11 carries and four receptions and still managed 139 all-purpose yards. That is the definition of efficiency and Buffalo isn’t quite as good as Dallas against the run. Sterling Shephard is now in concussion protocol and the Giants lack offensive luster outside of Shephard, Engram, and Barkley. He should see a nice increase in usage and wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 20+ touches in Week Two.

Honorable Mention:

Ezekiel Elliott ($8500 FD|$8700 DK): 14 touches, 63 all-purpose yards, 1 TD (Week One).

Mid Tier

NFL DFS WR: Adam Thielen (MIN) ($7300 FD|$7100 DK)

100% Reception rate. 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 14 yards per reception (Week One).

Kirk Cousins only threw the ball 10 times in Week One, completing eight of them for 98 yards and a TD. Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota defense pretty much handled the rest. This is a big division game against Green Bay and I think we see a lot more passing given run defense is one of the Packers’ strengths. Adam Thielen should see at least 10 looks on Sunday.

NFL DFS WR: Cooper Kupp (LAR) ($6800 FD|$6000 DK)

70% Reception rate. 10 Targets, 7 Receptions, 6.6 yards per reception (Week One).

Cooper Kupp gets one of the best pound for pound matchups on the slate against P.J. Williams. The Rams didn’t look great offensively last Sunday but Jared Goff home/road splits are a thing. At home, Goff is completing 68% of his passes compared to 60% on the road. He also averaged 342 passing yards per per game at home (he threw over 400 in some) versus 243 on the road. Kupp was one of the highest targeted receivers in the red zone and averaged nine targets per game last season. I like him particularly on DK for the PPR.

NFL DFS WR: Julian Edelman (NEP) ($7100 FD|$6900 DK)

62% Reception rate. 95 Targets, 59 Receptions, nine yards per target (Week One).

It will be interesting to see what kind of game plan Bill Belichick rolls out in Miami. His team is talented in all three phrases and he has numerous weapons and depth to compliment those weapons. I’m not a huge fan but I’d be neglectful to not include Julian Edelman. My theory is based on game script. I think this game correlates better with RB paired with DST as opposed to QB with WR. I just think they play smart, sound football and grind it out. Edelman should be considered, he just won’t be in my main lineup.

Honorable Mentions: Robert Woods ($7300 FD|$6400 DK), Kenny Golladay ($6600 FD|$6600 DK), Tyler Boyd ($6300 FD|$6600 DK),

Low Tier/Punts

NFL DFS WR: John Brown (BUF) ($6300 FD|$5200 DK)

70% Reception rate. 10 Targets, 7 Receptions, 17.6 yards per reception (Week One).

John Brown presents great speed against a terrible New York Giants defense. Prior to his departure of Arizona he had dealt with injuries off and on and then was traded to Baltimore and saw minimal work when rookie QB Lamar Jackson came in and ran his way through the rest of the season. Brown is a good receiver and matches up well against Janoris Jenkins. Although I still love a Zay Jones play to pivot off of him, I give John Brown the edge.

NFL DFS WR: Tyrell Williams (OAK) ($5900 FD|$4400 DK)

85% Reception rate. 7 Targets, 6 Receptions, 17 yards per reception (Week One).

The Raiders present overall great value across the board. K.C. has a weak secondary and rookie Gardner Minshew made that pretty evident after going 22-25 and two TD’s last week. Carr has limited weapons and Tyrell should continue to benefit.

NFL DFS WR: Randall Cobb (DAL) ($5500 FD|$4500 DK)

80% Reception rate. 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 17 yards per reception (Week One).

NFL DFS WR: Chris Conley (JAC) ($4500 FD|$3100 DK)

85% Reception rate. 7 Targets, 6 Receptions, 16 yards per reception (Week One).

NFL DFS RB: Josh Jacobs (OAK) ($4500 FD|$3100 DK)

24 touches for 113 all-purpose yards and 2 TD’s (Week One).

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NFL

NFL DFS Week One: Touches and Targets

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week One 12-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.

High Tier

NFL DFS WR: Mike Evans (TBB) ($7900 FD|$7900 DK)

61% Reception rate. 139 Targets, 86 Receptions, 11 yards per target (2018).

Both Evans and Chris Godwin have matchups made in heaven in week one against the 49er’s. It is very clear that San Francisco’s weakness lies in their secondary and Tampa Bay is a pass heavy team to begin with. Will have to monitor the Q tag due to illness but I’m pretty certain he will play.

NFL DFS WR: Adam Thielen (MIN) ($7400 FD|$6800 DK)

74% Reception rate. 153 Targets, 113 Receptions, nine yards per target (2018).

Adam Thielen gets a bump here if Diggs sits and it sounds like he will due to a hamstring injury. Thielen was a focal point of the Vikings offense as indicated by his target share in 2018. I don’t expect this to change. Although Chad Beebe could get some looks here with Diggs on the sideline.

NFL DFS WR: Kenny Golladay (DET) ($6900 FD|$6300 DK)

58% Reception rate. 119 Targets, 70 Receptions, nine yards per target (2018).

Golladay is a personal top play for me in week one, so he will make it into the high tier at mid range price. This Arizona team has a lot of question marks and I firmly believe they will end up being a bottom five defensive unit by the end of the regular season. Golladay has voiced his aspirations for a 100 catch season and I don’t see why I can’t put a 10 reception dent in that goal with one of the better WR/CB matchups on the slate.

NFL DFS RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) ($8900 FD|$8800 DK)

86% Reception rate. 124 Targets, 107 Receptions, seven yards per target (2018).

CMC was the top pick on my running back breakdown if you had the chance to read that. He is one of the most utilized backs in the league and offers one of the highest usage percentages of any player. He has a snap share of 94.5% and is a staple in the red zone. Go ahead and lock him in.

NFL DFS RB: Saquon Barkley (NYG) ($9200 FD|$9000 DK)

75% Reception rate. 121 Targets, 91 Receptions, six yards per target (2018).

I’m hearing some chatter for a Saquon Barkley fade and I just don’t see it. Yes, the Cowboys have a great defense and they will likely improve in 2019. One thing that is being overlooked is the NYG improvements on their offensive line. They signed Kevin Zeitler at right guard, probably their weakest spot on the Oline prior to the signing. Zeitler is allowing one QB pressure per 58 passing snaps. I will prioritize CMC over Barkley but I still think Barkley is a good option.

Mid Tier

NFL DFS WR: Cooper Kupp (LAR) ($6800 FD|$5700 DK)

71% Reception rate. 56 Targets, 40 Receptions, 10 yards per target (2018).

Cooper Kupp went out on November 11th last year with a knee injury so his stats aren’t as appealing as the others. But he draws an excellent matchup against the Panthers and is one of Goff’s favorite weapons. You should also consider Robert Woods who is also in a good spot.

NFL DFS WR: Tyler Lockett (SEA) ($6800 FD|$6000 DK)

79% Reception rate. 77 Targets, 61 Receptions, 14 yards per target (2018).

This should be one of the more popular plays on the slate as Russell Wilson doesn’t have a ton of options to throw to (not that he ever did) but manages to get it in done week in and out. He draws a favorable matchup against B.W. Webb of the Bengals. Will Dissly serves as a pivot/punt in larger GPP’s.

NFL DFS WR: Chris Godwin (TBB) ($6900 FD|$6200 DK)

62% Reception rate. 95 Targets, 59 Receptions, nine yards per target (2018).

Same thing I talked about with Mike Evans. Matchup made in heaven against the 49er’s secondary. I don’t believe he will out perform big Mike but he certainly has upside here.

Low Tier/Punts

NFL DFS WR: Cole Beasley (BUF) ($4800 FD|$3600 DK)

76% Reception rate. 91 Targets, 69 Receptions, eight yards per target (2018).

He draws one of the worst cover corners in the game while lining up in the slot (Brian Poole) and reports coming out of Buffalo suggest Allen and Beasley have great chemistry. This was one of the missing pieces and now Josh Allen has a receiver who can serve as a great relief valve when defenses are amping up the pressure.

NFL DFS WR: Chad Beebe (MIN) ($4800 FD|$3000 DK)

No numbers in 2018 for Beebe but this is a name you should remember going into week one. Diggs should sit and this kid crushed it through the pre season and camp. Beebe is my sleeper punt play of the week and he’s off of everyone’s radar.

NFL DFS WR: Willie Snead IV (BAL) ($4800 FD|$4000 DK)

64% Reception rate. 101 Targets, 65 Receptions, seven yards per target (2018).

Aside from Mark Andrews, Snead should be a prime target for Lamar Jackson. I believe he’s good for 5-6 catches for 60 yards and one TD.

NFL DFS WR: Chris Conley (JAC) ($4500 FD|$3100 DK)

58% Reception rate. 55 Targets, 32 Receptions, six yards per target (2018).

For those that overlooked it, Conley and Foles actually practiced together in Kansas City for a year in 2016. There is talk of excellent chemistry between the two coming out of camp and Conley serves as a cheap pivot away from Dede Westbrook or Keelan Cole. Boost to Conley if Marquie Lee sits on Sunday.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 1 Wide Receiver DFS Picks

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

Week 1 of the NFL season is upon us! What a treat! I’d argue that Opening Day of the NFL season is better than Christmas morning but it’s certainly close. What I’ll be doing for Win Daily is breaking down the wide receivers for each slate. I’ll offer up cash game options and GPP plays while providing pricing for both DraftKings and FanDuel. With that in mind, let’s get into some Week 1 Wide Receiver plays that we love!

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Week 1 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Adam Thielen, MIN vs. ATL

FD ($7,400) DK ($6,800)

People are forgetting just how good this dude was last season. While he struggled in his last five games, we’re talking about a Pro Bowler who attained 93 catches, 1,138 receiving yards and 8 TDs over his first 11 games. He was actually the top-scoring WR in the NFL at that time and he’s not being priced like someone with that sort of potential. The advanced statistics tell a similar story, with Thielen generating a 26 percent share of the team targets while providing 88.6 air-yards per game. Those are both elite rates and it tells us that he’s the focal point of this offense.

All of those stellar numbers paired with this matchup make Thielen one of the most reliable options out there. In fact, the Falcons allowed opposing receivers to average 24.8 fantasy points per game, which happened to be the eighth-worst mark in the league. They also allowed opposing QBs to score the fifth-most fantasy points against them and the implied team total of 26 for Minnesota tells us that this could be a high-scoring game with two talented offenses on display.

Kenny Golladay, DET at ARI

FD ($6,900) DK ($6,300)

Golladay is actually my favorite per-dollar play on the board. Being the only good receiver on this offense is a major reason why, as I anticipate Matthew Stafford feeing KD at will. That’s really scary against a secondary who not only lost Patrick Peterson to suspension, they also lost Robert Alford to a broken leg. That means they’ll be down to their third-corner covering Golladay, which makes me believe that they’ll force-feed him all game long.

This guy is one of the most talented WRs in the game too, finishing last season with a career-high 70 receptions and 1.063 receiving yards. That appears to be the floor this season, with players like Golden Tate and Theo Riddick out of the picture. He actually still had 28 percent of the teams receiving yards and receiving TDs last season, which will only get higher in a diminished offense. That pairs beautifully with the fact that he ranked ninth in contested catch rate and 16^th in total targets in the NFL last season. Look for this guy to have a breakout season and look for it to begin against this dismantled secondary.

Dede Westbrook, JAX vs. KC

FD ($5,900) DK ($4,800)

I really can’t believe how cheap these prices are for Westbrook. I initially had him as a GPP play but he has too big of a floor for someone in this price range. The reports out of camp tell us that he’s the top receiver on this offense and his four catches for 29 yards and a TD in his final preseason game show us that Foles really leans on him. In fact, six of Foles 10 pass attempts in that game were thrown to Westbrook and that’s a godsend for such a talented receiver. We can look past his ugly career numbers too, as he’s never played with a QB like Foles.

The advanced numbers tell us that he’s a better receiver than his statistics would indicate too, with Westbrook ranked 14^th in red zone target share and 17^th in catchable target rate last season. The potential for this sort of breakout is particularly intriguing against a defense like this, with the Chiefs allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs last season. A lot of that is due to their elite offense but that too should have the Jaguars passing the ball more than ever before.

Week 1 Wide Receiver GPP/Punt Plays

Sterling Shepard, NYG at DAL

FD ($6,000) DK ($5,000)

This play is very risky but I always like using a WR1 in a game where I anticipate them losing handily. That probably sounds strange but I believe that the Giants are going to be forced to throw in this game as a 7-point underdog. That’s all we can ask for when talking about Shepard, as he’s the only receiver we can trust on this offense with Golden Tate suspended and Odell Beckham in Cleveland.

In the final four games without OBJ last season, Shepard collected 13 receptions for 234 yards. More importantly, he had 31 targets, thus proving that he’s their go-to receiver with him off the field. That’s about eight targets per game and that’s all we can ask for from someone so cheap. While Dallas is a tough defense, the fact that the Giants will likely be playing catch-up only adds to Shepard’s intrigue.

Curtis Samuel, CAR vs. LAR

FD ($5,900) DK ($4,200)

I hate to do this but the preseason hype on this guy is simply amazing. Some beat reporters are saying that this could be the next great WR in the league and it’s truly incredible just how low these DFS sites are keeping his price. Going off of reports is a risky game in terms of DFS but Samuel still had at least 72 receiving yards in three of his final five games last season.

The profile from this kid is simply amazing, as his 4.31 40-yard dash is one of the best totals ever at the combine. That may be one of the reasons that people are glowing about him but the fact that he’s solidified himself as an every-down receiver is the most intriguing part about Samuel. This matchup is brilliant too, facing a Rams team who allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs last season. That’s why we’re looking at a total of 50, as we should have a ton of passing from both teams.

Sterling Shepard Featured Image via Keith Allison.

5 years ago 0 comment

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