Aces and Bases

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather concerns in tonight’s slate, so plug these Aces and Bases plays in with confidence!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Dustin May ($9,700)

We’ve got five or six viable “aces” out of 12 total SPs on tonight’s slate, including both pitchers in this game, GPP darling Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) facing the Texas Rangers in Globe Life Park, the young and talented RHP Zac Gallen (ARI) at home facing the Rockies, and veteran hurler Charlie Morton (ATL) in a tough matchup against the Blue Jays. But May stands out as the highest upside play given the fact he reached double-digit Ks in his last start, the game features the lowest projected total and the Brewers — his opponent, strike out at a 27.2% clip, the third-highest rate in the majors. You can save a few bucks dipping down to Brandon Woodruff, especially if the think the Dodgers bats will continue their scuffling ways — but May is a -125 favorite and could go underowned given the number of viable arms with slightly cheaper price tags.

Best Value: Zac Gallen ($9,000)

In his last start, Gallen looked absolutely dominant on the mound against a potent Braves lineup, limiting Atlanta to just one hit — a single from Freddie Freeman — and only one runner reaching scoring position. This scoreless gem from Gallen was his best start of the season and should give him ample confidence against a Rockies lineup that isn’t very good outside of Coors Field — sporting a ghastly 27 road wRC & 56 road wRC+ that are both dead last in the league. If Gallen made mincemeat out of the Braves, he should easily dispatch the Rockies. There’s a hint of risk here, as Gallen is still a young pitcher who’s learning his craft, but when he’s sharp, he’s REALLY sharp — and tough to hit.

Contrarian GPP Value: Blake Snell ($8,800)

It’s not really great value since he’s less than $1K cheaper than the top arm on tonight’s slate, but Snell makes a lot of sense as a low-owned GPP play. The former Cy Young winner has had only one truly devastating MLB DFS outing (April 13 @ PIT) this season, when he failed to get out of the first inning, and the rest of his starts have been, well…serviceable. The good thing is that he’s coming off the longest outing of the young season (5.1 IP in a no decision on 4/25 @ LAD) and he’s sporting a 13.50 K/9 so far in 20.2 IP. The Giants lineup does have a few scary righty-versus-LHP bats, like splits-dynamic Wilmer Flores and veteran sluggers Evan Longoria and Buster Posey — but I like his chances at a win and quality start if he can notch a couple more outs than he did in his last appearance.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Opener LHP Travis Bergen)

This game will be played in Dunedin FL at TD Ballpark, the Blue Jays slated to open with Travis Bergen and giving Tommy Milone the bulk of work as the primary middle reliever. Neither of these guys is up to the task of stopping the Braves, who are loaded throughout the order with power righty bats (and a lefty slugger (Freddie Freeman, $4,100) who over the course of his career has hit southpaws just fine. Freeman’s hefty price tag makes him less of a priority, but Ronald Acuna ($4,300) is worth the spend up and there are a few value bats to get in this stack: Marcell Ozuna ($3,300), switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,100), Travis d’Arnaud ($2,700) and 3B Austin Riley ($2,500). I didn’t forget about Dansby Swanson ($2,500), Pablo Sandoval ($2,000) and projected 9-hitter Gil Heredia ($2,900), all of whom could produce in a funky (and contrarian) 6-8-9-1 stack. But I think my favorite approach here is 1-3-4-5 or 1-3-5-7 — depending on who lands where in the final lineup. There’s also some opportunity to run back a game stack with some Blue Jays bats.

Value Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (LHP Austin Gomber)

I love the D-backs righthanders bats in this matchup, especially leadoff hitter Carson Kelly, who’s mashing the ball in a torrid start to the 2021 season (.340/.507/.717 through 73 plate appearances). Rounding out the 1-4 stack are switch-hitters Eduardo Escobar ($3,400) and Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,800) and lefty 1B/OF Pavin Smith, who’s been flourishing near the top of the order in the absence of Christian Walker and Kole Calhoun. Smith already has a homer, triple and double against LHP in just 17 AB this season, so I’m okay with him in this group. Other value options include Josh Rojas ($2,500) and the less appealing Wyatt Mathisen ($2,200).

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Jordan Lyles)

The Red Sox have just the third highest projected total after the Braves and Blue Jays, but they are really heating up at the plate. I love the 2-3-4-5 hitters in this game: Alex Verdugo ($3,200), J.D. Martinez ($4,200), Xander Bogaerts ($3,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,700), but there’s some value in Kike Hernandez ($2,700) in the leadoff spot and all of Christian Vazquez ($2,300), Marwin Gonzalez ($2,200) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,200) offer solid risk-reward upside at dirt cheap prices.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

OAK@BAL has a significant risk of postponement, and the projected pop-up storms in Atlanta take that game off the board for me as far as pitchers are concerned.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Trevor Bauer ($11,000)

Bauer may be a pretty insufferable social media presence, but he’s a damn fine pitcher who knows his craft as well as any hurler in the bigs. Over the past couple seasons, he’s sported a K/9 rate north of 12.0 and his xFIP is among the best in the game, just eclipsing 3.00. Bauer is the clear top dog, as the next most expensive pitcher on the slate is Kevin Gausman against the Marlins, and while the man formerly known as “Kevin Gascan” has been solid in 2021, the veteran doesn’t carry the same double-digit strikeout potential as Bauer. And Adam Strangis agrees in his 4/24 Rotation article that it’ll be tough to avoid Bauer tonight.

Best Value: Pablo Lopez ($8,200)

Lopez fared well against these same Giants in Miami just six days ago (6.0 IP, 9/2 K/BB, 1 ER) en route to 49 FanDuel points in a Marlins loss. If you want to fade the chalky Bauer and find some extra salary for a few more big bats, you can take your pick among Gausman or Lopez — though I always prefer the higher K upside on FanDuel. If Lopez can sneak out another quality start and notch a win this time, 50+ FD points is well within reach.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela)

The most obvious stack in play is in Coors, but we may have to get a little creative with who we pick since salary is an issue. If you’re spending down to Lopez at P, you can afford the vaunted 2-5 hitters, which include Rhys Hoskins ($4,200), Bryce Harper ($4,800), JT Realmuto ($3,800) and Didi Gregorius ($3,500), but using Bauer essentially takes RHBs Hoskins and Realmuto (the two less appealing of that group) out of play and necessitates lower-cost options like Alec Bohm ($3,200) and Mickey Moniak ($3,000). AS far as a game stack goes, the Rockies that offer the most upside are Charlie Blackmon ($4,000) and Raimel Tapia ($3,100).

Value Stack: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Kyle Gibson)

While Gibson has turned in three straight effective, quality starts after a disastrous debut in 2021, the Chisox are one of the only MLB DFS stacking options available that offer upside at a relatively low cost. Since there’s a dearth of bargain pitching options, you should be rounding out your Coors stacks with one-offs or looking the way of the potent sub-$3K hitters in the Windy City, including Yoan Moncada ($2,900), Luis Robert ($2,800), Yasmani Grandal ($2,700) and Andrew Vaughn ($2,100). There’s some threat of rain in this one, but probably not enough to cause a significant delay or postponement,

Value/Contrarian Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Pablo Lopez)

If you’re strictly a single-entry MLB DFS guy who hates hedging with multiple lineups, this slate may not be for you — but multi-entry GPP junkies should be considering some Giants stack against Lopez, as the splits indicate you should be able to harness some leverage and tournament-winning upside with some lefty bats in San Francisco. I know — using Lopez in other builds assumes he’ll be successful — but our need for cheap bats notwithstanding on this small slate, we have t find ways to get different. Mike Yastrzemski ($2,800), Brandon Belt ($2,700), Tommy La Stella ($2,600) and Alex Dickerson ($2,700) make sense as a Giants stack in this crazy world. Run it back with Jazz Chisolm, Jr. ($3,100) and/or leadoff hitter Corey Dickerson ($2,700) for the Marlins.

Good luck!