StixPicks 
To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” Hopefully everyone is safe from the Hurricane and ready to decompress with some NFL football! The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a potential splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat (all of which are in the cash game article).
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts ($8,100 DK / $8,600 FD)
This is one of the few games with a higher total that I actually believe can go relatively back-and-forth. Both teams play at a high tempo and both teams have healthy, explosive playmakers. I really cannot say that for many of the games on this slate. I’m rolling out Hurts in all formats with the expectation this is a ceiling type of game in the dome for Jalen Hurts.
Stacking Options: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore, James Conner
Andy Dalton ($5,200 DK / $6,500 FD)
Similar to Jalen Hurts in the Eagles @ Philadelphia, the Seahawks @ Saints is one of the few games on this slate I truly believe have “game-stack ability”. Quite frankly, this is a week where I’m not too focused on correlation but more so pivots against the heavy chalk running backs. In terms of value, the AETY Model grades Andy Dalton as the #1 value quarterback on the slate and that makes a lot of sense as Seattle has been getting carved by all passing attacks, including a decimated Detroit Lions offense last week.
As long as Seattle can stay in this game (I have very little doubt that they will), this game offers the NFL DFS GPP players a sneaky shootout.
Stacking Options: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara
Run-Back Options: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Rashaad Penny
Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz
NFL DFS GPP Running Backs
Derrick Henry ($8,200 DK / $8,900 FD)
Derrick Henry is quietly heating up and the ownership has yet to flock his way. The best thing about Derrick Henry right now is that he’s received a 23% target share in the passing attack over the past two weeks. With no Treylon Burks, this offense will (and always has) run through Derrick Henry. It’s not the best matchup in the world, but when Henry gets hot, he gets scorching hot. Outside of no more Taylor Lewan, this offensive line is healthy and ready to roll.
Nick Chubb ($8,000 DK / $9,400 FD)
The Chargers are currently giving up almost five and a half yards per carry. With a 3-5% owned Nick Chubb, what else do you need me to say? This game should be a bit more back-and-forth than people think and Vegas agrees, as we currently have a 47-point total. As always, our concerns with Nick Chubb on DraftKings is that he doesn’t catch passes, so if you’re rostering Chubb, you’re investing in the script that he goes for over 100 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns… which is certainly possible anytime Chubb steps on the field.
Miles Sanders ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD)
A sub-5% owned Sanders against a dreadful Arizona defense. As everyone looks for the “safer” plays at this price-point (Leonard Fournette, Jamaal Williams, and Alvin Kamara), the NFL DFS GPP community is completely overlooking Miles Sanders. The AETY Model has Miles Sanders as the 7th best running back value on this slate and the ownership projections have Sanders as the 20th rostered running back. I’ll take that edge on the DFS field all day long and ensure myself a piece of every touchdown for the Eagles via Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders.
James Robinson ($6,300 DK / $8,000 FD)
In the same tier as Miles Sanders is James Robinson. Robinson is a significant value on DraftKings specifically but in play on FanDuel as well. I’m currently seeing ownership projections at 2-3% for the lead back of the Jaguars, at home, going up against the Texans run defense that grades 29th in DVOA. This is an absolute smash spot and extreme leverage off of a 20% owned stack of Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk. Let’s ride my alma mater’s best running back in James Robinson!
Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, James Conner
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
Honestly, DraftKings made a lot of questionable price-tags this week and I really do like the chalk wide receivers from the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown. My thought there is to use the obvious high-upside values and get different at the running back position above. Here are some other wide receivers I’m interested in rostering pending the lineup construction:
- Stefon Diggs
- Mike Evans
- Tyreek Hill (stacked up with Teddy Bridgewater and Jaylen Waddle if Tyreek is healthy)
- Deebo Samuel (crazy low ownership for the highest floor and arguably highest upside at the position and nice pivot off of Jeff Wilson chalk)
- AJ Brown / DeVonta Smith (weekly pick on Marco Wilson matchup and easy stack with Hurts)
- Marquise Brown (sub 5% due to the field being scared of the potential Darius Slay shadow)
- Adam Thielen (1% owned, high-upside against the worst secondary in the NFL)
- Terry McLaurin / Curtis Samuel (no Jahan Dotson and a matchup against the 2nd worst secondary in the NFL)
- George Pickens
- Khalil Shakir (significant sneaky value and excellent coverage matchup IF Isaiah McKenzie is OUT)
NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends
To be as transparent as possible, I’ll be using a TON of O.J. Howard ($2,600 DK / $4,500 FD) due to the savings offered and coverage thoughts from the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown. I understand if that is not in your appetite but I’m really trying to pay up at Quarterback/Wide Receiver/Defense (yes, Defense) and get different at the running back position. Howard is scary as hell to roster at a high clip, but he opens up a lot for my builds when there really isn’t any tight-end on the slate that I worry will score 20+ points.
Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, David Njoku, Gerald Everett
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.
