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After an insanely strong start to the NFL DFS GPP season in Week 1, let’s get right back at it for Week 2! To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat.
NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
As mentioned in the Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown, I’m all in Kyler Murray ($7,500 DK / $8,500 FD) and Derek Carr ($6,200 DK / $7,300 FD). The ownership doesn’t seem to be trending too much in their direction and I simply do not see any path that the game doesn’t shootout. If I’m not rostering one of those two it’s very likely I’ll consider the following:
Jared Goff ($5,400 DK / $6,700 FD)
Outside of Arizona @ Las Vegas, the AETY Model really only seems to like the pace of the Washington @ Detroit game in the dome. It’s a very small sample size but Detroit and Washington both ranked inside the top-10 for expected pace of play and project to do the same again this week. I really liked what I saw with Ben Johnson’s game plan and moving the ball downfield significantly more than Anthony Lynn did in 2021. Yes, the Eagles certainly pushed the Lions into a more pass-happy gamescript, but I worry that this Detroit defense will struggle for quite some time which leads them into these pass-happy gamescripts.
Stacking Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson
Run-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson, Jahan Dotson
Honorable Mention: Tom Brady, Trevor Lawrence (weather dependent)
NFL DFS GPP Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 DK / $9,000 FD)
It was a beautiful week to fade a 25% owned Christian McCaffrey last week and it paid off, but I do feel like we got more lucky than anything. If you rewatch that game, the Cleveland Browns absolutely suffocated the clock and dominated time-of-possession (which then lead to a lot less CMC than the DFS public was expecting). This week, that will not be the case as the Panthers travel to East Rutherford to take on an expected high-pace team (they played Tennessee last week, who also suffocates the clock, so don’t look much into the Giants’ lack of plays just yet) in the Giants.
Christian McCaffrey is going to be the forgotten child up top in the running back pool due to the recency bias of DFS players (8-10% ownership projection) and that is something we will take advantage of.
Joe Mixon ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD)
Please read the Cash Game Checkdown for more analysis on Joe Mixon. If you want to fade the Saquon Barkley chalk, the AETY Model believes this is an absolute smash spot for Joe Mixon.
Josh Jacobs ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD)
Arguably my favorite play on the slate at the running back position, I’m all in this week on Josh Jacobs. Again, I am making it a priority to get exposure to Arizona @ Las Vegas and Josh Jacobs seems to be the best value in that game now that Brandon Bolden is likely out with a hamstring injury. Yes, we’ll see plenty of Ameer Abdullah, but Jacobs against this putrid Arizona defense with a bit more pass-catching equity than usual is something I’ll be locking in when only 12-15% of the field is riding with Josh Jacobs.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,200 DK / $5,600 FD)
This is simply a pivot off of what will likely be a rather chalky Jeff Wilson Jr. week. I never trust Shanahan to give a runner a full workload (Wilson Jr.) and we know how much utilization Deebo Samuel and Trey Lance get in the red-zone… I’m going to fade Wilson for those reasons. Now that Ty Montgomery is on the IR, we’re very likely to see a lot more passing game work for Stevenson and that is something I’ll buy low on this week against a Pittsburgh defense that should continue to bleed production to pass-catching running backs.
Chase Edmonds offers us the same exact situation as well.
Honorable Mention: James Conner, Nick Chubb, Antonio Gibson, Chase Edmonds, Dameon Pierce
NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
Davante Adams ($8,600 DK / $8,800 FD)
Unfortunately, we will not be getting the ownership discount on Adams like we did last week, but I’ll be pressing the lock button on him yet again in Week 2 against Arizona. Stack this game.
Terry McLaurin ($6,600 DK / $7,300 FD)
As I’m looking to get exposure to the Commanders @ Lions, I’m loving this matchup for a 3-5% owned, Terry Mclaurin. The Lions’ secondary is trash and they will likely continue to play a lot of press-man coverage… something Terry McLaurin has destroyed throughout his career. Everyone will be chasing the production from Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson (and maybe for good reason), but the top wideout in this offense is going un-owned.
Christian Kirk ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)
With Kenny Moore likely missing this game, I’ll go right back to Christian Kirk who is a clear WR1 still priced like a WR2. The Colts played a rather conservative zone defense last week and the way to beat Trevor Lawrence (outside of just simply outscoring the weaker Jaguars, lol) is by pressuring him. As long as Gus Bradley doesn’t change his standard “bend don’t break” defensive scheme, Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk will hook up early and often in this matchup where the Jaguars likely play from behind from the get-go.
DJ Chark Jr. ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD)
It appears that the masses are flocking to this game to stack it up and mainly on the Carson Wentz side of things. I’m fine if you trust Wentz, but if Wentz and the Commanders have a solid game and score at will like the public seems to think they will, Goff will have a field day in return. Yes, I absolutely love Amon-Ra St. Brown (it’s the same matchup we loved Christian Kirk in last week) but I also love the idea of a 1% owned DJ Chark Jr. who lead this team in air yards (by a wide margin) and red-zone targets in Week 1. As much as I do not like “chasing production” the talent has always been there for Chark and the matchup on the outside with Kendall Fuller and William Jackson is one he should thrive in if this game goes up-paced. Do I hear a double stack?
Honorable Mention: Cooper Kupp, Courtland Sutton, Marquise Brown, Jarvis Landry, Parris Campbell, Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton
NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends
No surprise here, it will be the same player pool from the Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown with the addition of T.J. Hockenson. I love the idea of Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, or T.J. Hockenson for GPPs to get exposure to the lower-owned side of the games with the highest totals on the slate, but all players from the cash article will be in my pool.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.
