StixPicks 
Welcome back for the Week 10 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s another gross 10-game slate with mediocre totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown.
As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!
Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 10:
– Dallas Cowboys (28.5)
– Cincinnatti Bengals (26.75)
– Seattle Seahawks (25)
– Detroit Lions (25.75)
– San Francisco 49ers (24.25)
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it. Both are in play for cash game and GPP tournaments. This week, the safest floor is Joe Burrow ($6,800 DK / $8,200 FD) and likely a staple for the field in cash game contests.
- Jared Goff ($6,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – A little too pricey for me on FanDuel but an excellent value on DraftKings. Goff is leading the pack in terms of expected passing yards in the AETY Model (right there with Joe Burrow) and gets a cake matchup against the Chargers’ atrocious pass defense. In terms of ownership, it looks like he’ll be sub 5% owned and more of a GPP option, but I think he’s plenty safe for cash games. The downside here is the Lions’ love for running the football in the red-zone.
Stack Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta
Bring-Back Options: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler - Geno Smith ($5,800 DK / $6,900 FD) – Great price and an even better matchup. I do have concerns that Washington can’t stay in the game and there is also some potential weather issues to keep an eye on. Having said that, Geno Smith is going to be extremely popular and offers our cash game builds a piece of one of the higher team totals on the slate. Washington is the second worst pass defense we have to pick-on in Week 10 NFL DFS.
Stack Options: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Bring-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas - Baker Mayfield ($5,100 / $6,600 FD) – GPP lineups only. The AETY Model grades Baker Mayfield as the top quarterback value on this slate against a beat-up, pass-funnel Titans’ defense. The concern here (outside of it being Baker Mayfield) is the low-total of 39 points and the Titans’ extremely slow pace of play (which has gotten better under Will Levis). I don’t really see a path to either of these teams getting a lot of stops and we could see this one shoot well over the total… it could also suck.
Stack Options: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton
Bring-Back Options: DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry - Taylor Heinicke ($5,100 DK Only) – GPP only, but I’m digging the stack-ability and value with Taylor Heinicke. The Arizona Cardinals’ defense is non-existent and paid dividends last week with our Watson/Cooper stacks. The bright-side here is that Atlanta’s defense is struggling and should allow Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ plenty of opportunities to turn this into a shootout. The total continues to be on the rise at sportsbooks and thats a trend a love to see. It appears the Arizona Cardinals are going to be the highest owned defense and we can leverage the hell out of that with Heinicke.
Stack Options: Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson
Bring-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Trey McBride
Honorable Mention: Trevor Lawrence, Will Levis
NFL DFS Running Backs
Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.
- Derrick Henry ($7,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – Amazing price for Derrick Henry. This is not a great matchup but I love the upside a 5% owned Derrick Henry provides with the new mobility and play-action with Will Levis. This is a prime GPP play this week and I’ll have plenty.
- Tony Pollard ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel as a double-digit home favorite. I’ll lock in Pollard for my cash game lineups and leave it at that. I will NOT talk you off him in GPPs, but I do have concerns the Cowboys are up by 30 early and we see a lot more Rico Dowdle.
- Kenneth Walker ($6,800 DK / $7,300 FD) – Playing running backs against the Washington Commanders is going to be a thing moving forward (just gave up damn-near seven yards-per-carry to New England). We love Stevenson last week and I love Walker even more this week. The touchdown equity here is top-tier and so is the leverage against a chalky Geno Smith.
- Joe Mixon ($6,200 DK / $7,700 FD) – Much better price on DraftKings but with no Tee Higgins and a plus-matchup against the Texans’ banged up defense, Mixon should warrant some of the highest ownership on the slate. I’m fine with playing Mixon in all formats.
- He Who Shall Not Be Named ($6,000 DK / $6,600 FD) – Art Smith, please use your brain. This is the nut matchup for running backs in what should be a back-and-forth affair. If you can stomach it, I’m going right back to it.
- Najee Harris ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Great matchup, great price. When it matters, the ball is getting into the hands of Najee Harris and he offers us some nice salary relief and low ownership.
Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne Jr., Aaron Jones, Alexander Mattison
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.
| Targets per Routes Ran | Quarterback’s First Read | Air Yard Leaders (Team Share) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Ja’Maar Chase | Brandon Aiyuk |
| Brandon Aiyuk | Chris Olave | Amari Cooper |
| Diontae Johnson | Keenan Allen | Ja’Maar Chase |
| Keenan Allen | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DeAndre Hopkins |
| Ja’Maar Chase | Marquise Brown | George Pickens |
| DeAndre Hopkins | Terry McLaurin | Chris Olave |
| CeeDee Lamb | Amari Cooper | Calvin Ridley |
| Chris Olave | CeeDee Lamb | DK Metcalf |
| Marquise Brown | DeAndre Hopkins | Marquise Brown |
| Robert Woods | Calvin Ridley | Diontae Johnson |
- Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300 DK / $8,600 FD) – My top-tier WR1 on this slate (especially for full PPR formats like DraftKings)
- Mike Evans ($7,200 DK / $7,600 FD) – There is literally no one on this Tennessee secondary that can cover Mike Evans with Sean Murphy-Bunting OUT. If this game can get some pace, Mike Evans will be a slate-breaker around 5% ownership. Extremely affordable on FanDuel.
- DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $7,300 FD) – Another home-run type of play like Mike Evans against Emmanuel Forbes and this Washington secondary. If the weather is solid, fire up all of the DK Metcalf you can. He will absolutely destroy the man-coverage Washington continues to run at a high-rate.
- Chris Olave ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) – Just a safe, cash-game type of play with some additional upside in the tank. The Vikings are more of a pass-funnel defense who will run a ton of Cover-3 and the league’s highest blitz rate. I love Olave’s floor in this matchup.
- DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – Too cheap for the banged-up pass-funnel, struggling secondary of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cash game staple and likely someone I’ll continue to lock into GPP lineups for the value.
- Drake London ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD) – London is healthy and good-to-go against Marco Wilson and the worst secondary in the NFL. He’s going to be sub-5% owned and someone I’ll use as a big GPP value as leverage off of a chalky Diontae Johnson and Cardinals’ defense.
- Marquise Brown ($5,200 DK / $6,600 FD) – Way too cheap now with Kyler Murray back. No need to overthink this one. Kyler absolutely abuses his “X” wide receiver against man coverage and we will see a lot of that with Atlanta’s defense.
- Punt Values: Tyler Boyd ($4,600 DK / $6,200 FD), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD), Michael Gallup ($3,500 DK / $5,200 FD), Trey Palmer ($3,200 DK ONLY), Rondale Moore ($3,000 DK ONLY)
Honorable Mention: Ja’Maar Chase, Calvin Ridley, Tank Dell (cash-viable at his ownership), Diontae Johnson
Tight-Ends
- Sam LaPorta ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD) – With TJ Hockenson banged up, Sam LaPorta is my pay-up at the tight-end position if you want to do so. The Chargers play a lot of Cover-2 and Cover-1 and that is where LaPorta has been targeted at an elite clip.
- Kyle Pitts ($4,100 DK / $5,300 FD) – Again… Kyle Pitts is my favorite leverage play on the board. I’ll prioritize him in NFL DFS GPP lineups while everyone flocks to Trey McBride.
- Trey McBride ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings despite playing with his third quarterback in three weeks. I’m okay with McBride if you need the salary relief and he should have plenty of opportunities to work against Atlanta when they show Cover-2, but I don’t think there’s a ton of upside here.
Honorable Mention: TJ Hockenson, Evan Engram, Logan Thomas
The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)
- Tony Pollard
- Chris Olave
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Joe Mixon
- Geno Smith
NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Mike Evans
- DK Metcalf
- Derrick Henry
Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.
