It’s hump day and we get a seven-game NBA DFS Slate. I’ll be breaking down my core plays alongside my favorite value plays. We’ll break down which game to target for your lineups also. On top of that, I’ll drop my two favorite bets for tonight’s action while using the brand-new Propbettor tool!
NBA DFS – Core Plays
Luka Doncic $12,800 – 66.53 DK Points – 5.20 Value Rating
I don’t know what price Luka Doncic has to be for people to stop playing him. He has another solid matchup versus a Golden State Warriors team waiting on the return of Steph Curry. In their first matchup, Doncic recorded 39 points, 10 assists, and eight rebounds. In his last five games, he has averaged 35.6 points, 11.2 assists, and 10.8 rebounds per game. He recorded a triple-double in all five of those games. Both teams play at a fast pace and Luka Doncic will get his chance to continue his triple-double streak.
Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.
Jalen Smith $4,000 – 22.26 DK Points – 5.57 Value Rating
Even coming off of the bench, Jalen Smith is in a good spot versus the Chicago Bulls tonight. Overall, Chicago allows power forwards to average 23.1 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Smith has seen the Bulls twice this season and with one of them he started in. He averaged 11.5 points with 4.5 rebounds in those two games while shooting 71.4% from the field. While the minutes have not been there for him, Smith has still been able to score or at the minimum grab boards. Jalen Smith has the capabilities to hit his value.
Myles Turner $6,200 – 33.30 DK points – 5.37 Value Rating
Myles Turner has had some good luck versus the Chicago Bulls so far this season and now he gets to see them for the third time. Turner averaged 22 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists with 2.5 blocks per game through the first two meetings. While his last five games haven’t been as stellar, this is a great bounce-back spot, especially at his price tag. Indiana plays at the second-highest pace with 105.5 possessions per game while the Bulls only average 101. Turner will have many opportunities to exceed our expectations tonight.
NBA DFS – Top Value Targets
Jose Alvarado $3,400 – 18.22 DK points – 5.36 Value Rating
Jose Alvarado has seen a slight minute increase through his last five games where he averaged 20.9 minutes. On the season, Alvarado has been pushing 17.2 minutes per game. He has been filling the stats sheet lately, averaging 6.4 points, 2.6 assists, and 2.2 rebounds with 1.4 steals. The Cleveland Cavaliers are a good defensive team but allowing 23.7 points and 7.4 assists per game overall to the point guard position.
Daniel Gafford $5,000 – 24.01 DK Points – 4.80 Value Rating
While the projections for Daniel Gafford aren’t jumping off of the charts, the Dallas Mavericks do get the Golden State Warriors tonight. Gafford recorded 15 points, four rebounds, and one assist in the first meeting versus them. In his last five games, while his minutes have dropped, he averaged 13 points with seven rebounds. On the defensive end, the Warriors allow centers to average 22.8 points and 14.6 rebounds per game.
NBA DFS – Game To Target
Toronto Raptors (+130) versus Detroit Pistons (-155) – Total 233 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
We get a great game for salary prices and pace of play with Toronto and Detroit. The Detroit Pistons lead the way with 104.1 possessions per game while Toronto averages 103.2. Mix that with a total of 233 points, there are most likely some great plays in this game. Cade Cunningham does lead the group at a price tag of $8.6k and a projection of 42.88. Jalen Duren may be the sweet spot though at $6.7k and a projection of 34.81 DK points with a value of 5.20.
The Toronto Raptors also come in at a relatively safe price with just Kelly Olynyk reaching $7k. Gradey Dick is at $4.8k and he projects well once again. He projects for 24.01 DK points and with a value of 5.00. Now, Toronto should be close to full health and the minutes Dick has been receiving may drop in this game. Bruce Brown may be one to avoid as his value is at 4.06 and would project below his value point of 20.69 points. While the Raptors have some intriguing plays, the Detroit Pistons are the better side to stack in this matchup.
NBA DFS – Best Bets
We have launched the all-new PropBetter tool for our Premium users and you do not want to miss out on it. It covers the main Sportsbooks and allows you to find the edge for player props for each book. It’s a one-stop shop for you so you don’t have to go on a scavenger hunt to find the best place to place your money!
Franz Wagner over 4.5 Rebounds -145 (DK Sportsbook)
Using the Propbettor tool, Franz Wagner has a 29.8% edge to hit the over of 4.5 rebounds. He holds a projection of 5.85 versus the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets currently allow 8.5 rebounds per game to opposing forwards. Franz has proven that already. He averaged 6.7 rebounds in three games versus Brooklyn so far this season. The matchup is right for Franz Wagner.
Alex Caruso over 8.5 Points -115 (DK Sportsbook)
Here is another huge edge which is 38.21% for Alex Caruso over on his points total tonight of 8.5 points. Caruso is projected for 11.76 points tonight versus Indiana. He has faced them twice this season and averaged 11.5 points while playing 29.3 minutes. With it being a huge pace-up spot for Chicago, Alex Caruso should find some opportunities to score and do even more.
