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Vegas baby!!!
Vegas is the home of NASCAR this weekend as they continue their tour of the West Coast. This track is a cookie-cutter-Esque 1.5 mile. Unlike last week, tire wear will not be an issue this week, but track position is important at Vegas. At this race last season, only three drivers who finished inside the top 10 started lower than 10th. At the fall race here in Vegas, only two drivers starting lower than 11th finished in the top 11. There is a couple of place differential plays that we should have exposure to in the top tier, but there are also some great plays at the top.
Roster Construction
Last season at this race it was all about the top tier/dominators. None of the top eight DKFP scoring drivers was less than $9K in salary (Daniel Hemric $9,200). Looking back at the optimal lineups, the top five scoring lineups at this race were all “stars and scrubs” builds and I see a similar build taking down GPPs on Saturday. Not one of the top five lineups has less than three top-tier priced drivers, and two even had four.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)
Like I mentioned in the open two drivers are going to be semi-chalky place differential plays in this race on Saturday. Both Ty Gibbs ($11,000 -P11) and Justin Allgaier ($10,400 – P16) were fast in practice with them ranking 4th and 6th respectively in single-lap speed and Gibbs was 3rd in 10-lap average. I have not decided how much of each driver I will have but I don’t think fading them is a good idea. These are two cars that could easily both finish top 5 or win this race.
Noah Gragson ($10,800) [ Proj Ownership: 42%]
Starting Position: 4th
It doesn’t seem like it, but Gragson has some place differential upside here because he is my pick to win in his hometown. Gragson has never won here, but he also has never finished lower than 6th in six races and has a 3.8 average finish. In practice on Friday nobody was faster than Gragson, he had the best single lap and 10-lap average. It’s hard for me to bet against Gragson on Saturday in this race.
Danie Hemric ($9,900) [Proj. Ownership: 25%]
Starting Position: 6th
Hemric finished 2nd in this race last season and has three straight top 5’s at Vegas. In practice on Friday, Hemric was 7th in single-lap speed but had the second-best 10-lap average. There really isn’t much to say about Hemric, he runs well in Vegas and he has a fast car, play him.
Brandon Jones ($9,500) [Proj. Ownership: 26%]
Starting Position: 21st
Jones was not fast in practice (16th SL, 14th 10L), but Vegas is a good track for him. Now, Jones will start at the rear on Saturday but I see him coming through the field early and be a contender for a top 10. Jones has four top 6 finishes in his last 5 races and his average finish here in 10 career races is 9.2.
Other Options: AJ Allmendinger (10,200 – P1), John Hunter Nemechek ($9,200 – P10), Josh Berry ($9,700 – P2)
EVERY driver in this price tier is in play. I suggest working your lineups from the TOP down. Fit in three of these drivers first, make them the priority before looking at the value tier. This is where the majority of your points will come from and it’s important to use the right pieces.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)
Myatt Snider ($8,000) [ Proj. Ownership: 26%]
Starting Position: 34th
Snider had a hiccup in qualifying that has him starting from the rear, but he will actually be starting higher than he is scored (which is VERY rare) because of so many drivers having to go to the back. In practice, Snider was 20th in 10 lap average and was 15th in single-lap speed. Snider fits in three dominator builds nicely at his salary and I expect to have a lot of exposure to him.
Jeb Burton ($7,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 47%]
Burton had a rough go in practice and qualifying on Friday spinning out in both. Because of this, Burton will start dead last but if his team got his car fixed, and I believe they did, he could be a top 20 finisher. In the few laps Burton ran he posted the 23rd best single lap, nothing to write home about, but he should be faster than that on race day.
Ryan Truex ($8,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 17% ]
Starting Position: 7th
Truex is in the #18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota on Saturday, so we know he has top-tier equipment. That showed on Friday as he was the third-fastest in single-lap speed and 10-lap average. Truex could be the pivot off the chalkier Snider that leads someone to a big payday on Saturday in this race. There is plenty of risk in Truex that there isn’t with Snider, so he isn’t a cash or single-entry play in my eyes.
Other Options: Anthony Alfredo ($7,800 – P25), Sam Mayer ($8,600 – P9), Ryan Sieg ($7,200 – P20)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)
- Joe Graf Jr. ($5,200) – P23: We know this car is fast considering it won the race at Fontana last week. Now, that was with Cole Custer behind the wheel but Graf is a good driver and a top 20 is definetly in the cards here.
- JJ Yeley ($6,600) – P30: Plenty of PD upside here for Yeley, but he does have some risk of his car giving up making him a GPP only play.
- Stefan Parson ($5,600) – P29: Parsons had top 20 speed in practice so this qualifying effort was a bit puzzling. IF Parson car last the entire race, he is a top 20 fnisher with top 15 upside.
- CJ McLaughlin ($4,600) – P31: McLaighlin has a car set up for the long run (21st in 10-lap avg) and gives the salary relief needed for 3-4 dominator builds.
- Bayley Currey ($5,700) – P27: Similar to Parson, Currey’s car was faster than it showed in qualifying and I think a top 20 is where we could see Currey at the end of the day.
- Joey Gase ($5,300) – P36: Not fast, but he is cheap and starts far back. If there is attrition in this race, Gase could have an outstanding day.
- Jesse Iwuji ($4,900) – P37: Just like Gase, not fast but cheap and has PD upside if we get some cars falling out early.
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Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
