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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2022 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play. There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
We’re heading West!
NASCAR returns to the West Coast this week with both the Xfinity and Cup Series racing at Auto Club Speedway for the first time in two years. This weekend will be a stark contrast to last weekend in Daytona in such that there will be very few wrecks with a more spread-out field. Typically races here can be boring with one or two drivers dominating and leading 75% of the laps. Also unlike last week, we won’t necessarily be stacking drivers from the back of the field. In 2020, the last time the Xfinity Series raced here, nine of the top ten finishers started inside the top 13. Four cars DNF’d and all four were mechanical issues with only two cautions for multi-car wrecks and three for single-car spins. This was by all means a very tame race. Two drivers led a combined 113 of 150 laps in this race (76.7%) so it will be key to find these dominators on Saturday afternoon.
Roster Construction
In two of the previous three races at Auto Club, two drivers starting inside the top 5 were in the optimal lineup. In 2020, four drivers starting 13th or better made the optimal lineup and in 2019 three did. No more than two drivers starting 30th or worse have been in the optimal line the last three races here. With all this knowledge we should be looking to use 2-3 dominators for this race and two value tier drivers. But sometimes things change and the way qualifying worked out we will be looking to the rear of the field for a lot of the top plays. There are still some good plays starting near the front, but there are fewer than usual at Fontana.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)
Justin Allgaier ($10,100) [ Proj. Ownership: 36%]
Starting Position: 20th
Allgaier is the top play on this slate and while he will likely be the highest owned driver it is hard to fade him. Allgaier has finished no worse than 12th at Auto Club in his last six races including four top 10’s. In Saturday’s short practice session, Allgaier had the best single lap speed and 5th best 10-lap average.
A.J. Allmendinger ($10,500) [Proj. Ownership: 28%]
Starting Position: 1st
Allmendinger was fast in practice finishing with the 4th best single lap speed. AJ has only raced here once in the Xfinity Series 15 years ago so we can’t count that. I believe Allmendinger will be one of the two dominant cars in this race and be a contender for the win.
Ty Gibbs ($11,300) [ Proj. Ownership 31%]
Starting Position: 12th
Gibbs will be popular, and that is why I slotted him below Allmendinger here. I think there is upside here, maybe more than Dinger but I think his ownership goes above the projection. Gibbs was fast in practice as well with the 5th best speed and 7th fastest 10-lap average.
Cole Custer ($9,800) [ Proj. Ownership: 27%]
Starting Position: 2nd
Custer is in the 07 SS Greenlight Ford, this is essentially a Stewart-Haas Ford though. In practice, Custer had the 10th best single lap, but he was 2nd in 10-lap average which is important because he shows he can take care of his tires in the “long run”. Custer won in his last Xfinity race here in 2019 and finished 6th the previous year. I look at Custer as a top 5 car with the potential to lead a bunch of laps.
Other Options: Daniel Hemric ($10,300 – P5), Noah Gragson ($10,900 – P6), Josh Berry ($9,500 – P11)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)
Myatt Snider ($8,100) [Proj. Ownership: 34%]
Starting Position: 31st
Snider projects as the second-highest owned driver but there is next to no downside with him today. Snider has only raced at Fontana once in the Xfinity Series where he finished 11th. In practice on Saturday, Snider was not fast, but I am not worried since he only ran 9 laps.
Anthony Alfredo ($7,300) [Proj. Ownership: 28%]
Starting Position: 28th
Alfredo was another car that was not fast in practice, but again I am not worried and look to Alfredo as a top 15 car on Saturday. In 2020, Alfredo was in the RCR #21 and finished 6th, this car he is in now is not as good as that car but he is a skilled driver in a good Our Motorsports Chevy.
Brandon Brown ($7,200) [Proj. Ownership: 31%]
Starting Position: 30th
Brown was a top 20 car in practice and was even in the top 10 in single-lap speed at one point. In 2019, Brown finished 15th here at Fontana, but in 2020 he had his engine fail on him and he finished 33rd. Brown had an issue in qualifying that set him back and has him starting where he is, this car is definitely a top 20 car (as long he stays clean) with top 10 upside.
Other Options: Sam Mayer ($8,700 – P13), Riley Herbst ($8,300 – P16), Kaz Grala ($7,400 – P29)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,800) – P37
- Josh Williams ($6,100) – P34
- Tommy Joe Martins ($6,300) – P27
- Ryan Vargas ($5,200) – P32
- Alex Labbe ($6,600) – P19
- Mason Massey ($4,900) – P33
- JJ Yeley ($5,600) – P24
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