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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Cup Series race from World Wide Technology Raceway! This is the first time the Cup Series has been to this track, but not the first time a lot of the drivers have raced here as the Truck Series has been coming here for years. This week in my weekend preview I went over drivers in this race who have previously won at this track in other series’. Zane Smith will be driving the #17 in place of Chris Buescher who is out with a positive COVID test. I will have more on Smith later, but he does have more experience at this track than most drivers in the field.
Roster Construction:
There were a lot of drivers who qualified in poor positions for this race making this a place differential race. With that being said, a lot of drivers have stated that it is difficult to pass here so I won’t be loading up on only place differential plays. Some of the top plays on the slate are in the $8.5K-$10K range so there will be builds that don’t even need any value plays. I will try and build the majority of lineups using very little of the value tier.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators)
Ryan Blaney ($9,600) [Proj. Ownership: 25%]
Starting Position: 5th
Blaney is an elite driver when it comes to short flat tracks like WWTR. This season at this track type nobody has been better. Blaney has the second-best speed ranking and average finish (5.5) as well as having the best average running position (4.3) and leading the most laps per race (135.5). In practice on Saturday, Blaney was top 2 in all speed categories. Blaney will be a contender for the win one Sunday and should be a top 5 car most of the day.
Ross Chastain ($10,000) [Proj. Ownership: 37%]
Starting Position: 10th
Chastain has been solid a pretty much every track type in 2022, but short flat tracks are ones he has been exceptionally good at. At Phoenix earlier this season, Chastain finished second, was the best driver late in a run, and had the 6th best green flag speed. Richmond is another track that Chastain ran well at, but had an incident that led to him finishing 19th. Chastain’s car improved over time in practice as he had the 7th best 5-lap average, 5th best 10-lap, and 4th fastest 15-lap. I don’t think Chastain gets the win today, but a top 5 is a good bet.
Denny Hamlin ($10,600) [Proj. Ownership: 15%]
Starting Position: 6th
If it’s a short, flat track then Hamlin should be a safe pick to win. Coming off his second win of the season in Charlotte last week, Hamlin heads to one of his most dominant track types in Gateway. Hamlin’s first win in 2022 came at Richmond, a similar track type and he ran well at Phoenix (13th) considering how poor his season started. In the last 16 races at this track type, Hamlin has 2 wins and a series-best average finish of 5.5. If we think Chastain may be a chalkier option and the safer play for cash, then Hamlin is the lower-owned GPP pivot on Sunday.
William Byron ($9,800) [Proj. Ownership: 39%]
Starting Position: 24th
Byron has been struggling of late, but at short flat tracks in 2022 he has been good. At Phoenix, Byron won stage 1 and had a 5.7 average running position but finished 18th thanks to a loose car and poor pit strategy late. At Richmond though, Byron finished 3rd and led 122 laps. Byron has some good PD upside on Sunday, but I will need to see more out of this team before suggesting a win or top five for them but I do think a top 10 is definitely a possibility on Sunday.
Other Options: Kyle Busch ($10,900 – P12), Chase Elliott ($10,200 – P16), Tyler Reddick ($9,400 -P4), Kyle Larson ($11,300 – P15)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Joey Logano ($8,900) [Proj. Ownership: 22%]
Starting Position: 7th
Logano was the only driver who had better average speed in practice than Blaney and should be a factor for the win as well. Logano is another driver who thrives at this track type with one win, six top 5’s, and seven top 10’s in nine races at this track type since 2020. In those nine races, Logano has also led a series-best 427 laps and has an average finish of 5.5
Alex Bowman ($8,700) [Proj. Ownership: 25%]
Starting Position: 25th
Bowman is strictly one of those PD plays I mentioned earlier. I don’t expect a huge day and I don’t see Bowman putting up too many dominator points if any, but his base score for PD and finishing position could be good enough. Bowman has an average finish of 11th at the two short flat tracks in 2022 and an average running position of 13th. Those positions are right about the range Bowman was running in practice on Saturday.
Chase Briscoe ($7,800)[Proj. Ownership: 22%]
Starting Position: 1st
Briscoe as a pole sitter seems scary, I get it, but he has shown dominance this season at this track type. Earlier this season in Phoenix Briscoe led 101 laps, as 5the best late in a run, and had a 4.6 average running position all on his way to victory lane. At Richmond, Briscoe finished 11th and wasn’t nearly as good but most drivers have said Phoenix is the more comparable track to WWTR. Briscoe has run one race at this track in a truck back in 2017. In that race, Briscoe started on the pole and led 88 laps on his way to a second-place finish. I would take that performance all day on Sunday.
Other Options: Kevin Harvick ($8,500 – P20), Austin Dillon ($7,500 – P29), Kurt Busch (8,200 – P11), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,700 – P27)
NASCAR DFS: Value Rankings
- AJ Allmendinger ($6,200) – P35: Dinger fought his way to victory in Portland on Saturday and now fins himself as one of the top value plays at WWTR. AJ will start 35th after there were issues with the car on Saturday but we saw what he did with a car that had “issues” on Saturday.
- Brad Keselowski ($7,100) – P30: Now technically, Brad’s price doesn’t fit my value pricing, but at this price and starting position, Keselowski is value.
- Bubba Wallace ($6,700) – P18: Wallace is a former winner here in the Truck Series, but this is a different animal. I don’t see Wallace in that category on Sunday, but a top 15 at this price makes him good value.
- Ty Dillon ($5,600) – P26: Dillon was a top 20 car in practice on Saturday and was the only car not involved in an incident last Sunday. If Ty can keep this car clean on Sunday he will smash value.
- Justin Haley ($6,000) – P28: Haley is another driver with a Truck Series win here so he has experience on this track. After a string of results inside the top 17, Haley has had two bad races back-to-back. I think this team rights the ship Sunday and picks up another top 20.
- Zane Smith ($5,400) – P32: Smith had a good run in the truck race Saturday and showed some good speed in practice in the 17 car. This car was putting up lap times in the low 20’s so Smith has the potential to be one of the top place differential plays on this slate.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
