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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Cup Series race from Sonoma! This week the series makes its second venture out on a road course in 2022. This track isn’t your typical road course though. Some drivers who excel at road courses don’t here but there are a good amount who have been good here and on other road courses. Sonoma is a high tire wear track and drivers who are good at managing their tires should have a good day here. Now, we have seen tires be an issue all season in the Cup Series and I am sure that will be the case on Sunday. Because of the tire issues in 2022, cautions are up over 72% from last season which is part of what is making DFS so difficult this season. As the old saying goes, cautions breed cautions, and at Sonoma that will be no different.
Roster Construction:
I am going to make a suggestion this week to all readers that you play multiple lineups in the Cup Series this week. If you typically play one lineup in the $12 SE, maybe make three lineups for the $3 three-max contest instead. I would pick four to six drivers as your “core” and get three of them in each lineup and mix and match your last three spots in each lineup with pivots and different plays. I know some of you do this already, but I do see some of you going 90-100% on one or two drivers in those builds, and that can be what kills your lineups.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators)
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000) [Proj. Ownership: 37%]
Starting Position: 28th
Truex is one of those drivers who excel at all road courses, including Sonoma. In the last three races here, Truex has won two of them and finished third in the other. Last season, Truex finished third and didn’t lead any laps, but in his two victories, he led a combined 123 laps. Truex did come through the field with ease in 2021 at Sonoma as well. In that race, he started 19th, finished third, and was the third-highest scoring driver. In a race where he could be chalky, I will have plenty of exposure to the 19 car on Sunday anyway and find ways to be different elsewhere.
Kyle Busch ($10,100) [Proj. Ownership: 24%]
Starting Position: 12th
If you have the $100 and want a lower-owned version of Truex on Sunday then Kyle Busch could be that driver. Busch has become one of the best drivers in the Cup Series on road courses and has been nothing short of fantastic at Sonoma since 2015. In six races since 2015, Busch has an average finish of 4.2, one victory (2 career), five top 5’s, and his worst finish is 7th (2016). I don’t know if Busch can dominate this race, but he does have a fast car. In practice, Kyle put up the 3rd best 5-lap average and of the nine cars who ran 10 consecutive laps, he was the best. I view Kyle as a potential winner but a definite top 5 car (if he can avoid tire issues and the inevitable carnage). Oh and I almost forgot, Kyle won the truck race here on Saturday night.
Ross Chastain ($9,800) [Proj. Ownership: 26%]
Starting Position: 7th
Chastain is a strong road course driver and is the winner at the only other road course in 2022. In that race, Chastain led the most laps, had the most fastest laps, and had the best speed ranking. Chastain ran well in Saturday’s truck race, finishing fourth and leading the second-most laps. It may seem like Chastain was a fluke winner at COTA this season, but he has an average finish of 6.2 at road courses since last season (minus the Charlotte Roval). Last season at Sonoma, Chastain started in P29 and ended the day finishing 7th, and was the 6th best driver late in a run.
Other Options: Both Kyle Larson ($10,600 – P1) and Chase Elliott ($10,400 – P2) are excellent plays today, BUT they both start up front and are the two highest priced drivers in the field. I am worried that they won’t make value and their point totals will be eclipsed by drivers starting further back at lower prices. William Byron ($9,200 – P20): I like Byron, but he has been bad lately. He has a fast car and a great pit crew but is just in a bad run of form. That has to end at some point and why not today.
Driver I’m Fading: Denny Hamlin ($9,600 – P10)
Hamlin is a decent road course driver, but he has been so hot and cold this season and not worth the risk for me on Sunday. In practice, Hamlin didn’t even crack the top 20 in speed and at COTA earlier this season Hamlin finished 18th. The Next-Gen car has stifled this team all season and I expect Hamlin to finish in the low teens and miss value.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Kevin Harvick ($8,100) [Proj. Ownership: 20%]
Starting Position: 23rd
Harvick and Sonoma go together like wine and cheese. Sonoma has been one of Harvick’s favorite tracks as he has finished top 6 in five of the last six races including his win in 2017. Last season Harvick finished a disappointing 22nd but the one part of the track that gave him trouble has been removed. Sonoma has decided to remove the carousel and the chute back in which gives Harvick a big boost. In practice, Harvick’s car looked fast as he was posting top 10 laps all session. Harvick is a top 10 car for me with an outside chance for the win on Sunday.
Erik Jones ($7,500) [Proj. Ownership: 31%]
Starting Position: 33rd
Since the start of 2021 both Kyle Larson and Jones have been in four of eight optimal lineups for road courses, the most of all drivers. I believe that Jones will make five in nine races on Sunday. Starting 33rd will make Jones one of the highest owned drivers on Sunday, but similar to Truex, he is good chalk with high upside. In those eight races since 2021, Jones has two top 10’s and an average finish of 15th. Jones’ average starting position was 25.3 in those races which is what put him in so mand optimal lineups. In practice on Saturday, the 43 car was a top 15 car throughout and I believe that’s where they will end the day.
Christopher Bell ($8,900) [Proj. Ownership: 35%]
Starting Position: 31st
Bell had a rough go in qualifying after putting up good laps in practice. Coming into Sunday, Bell has an average finish of 5.6 (minus Martinsville and Talladega where he had issues) and a top ten in every race since COTA. Bell is also currently on a five race top 10 streak. At COTA earlier this season, Bell had the 8th best speed ranking and finished 3rd in the Next-Gen first road course race. I see Bell as a top 10 finisher on Sunday and he also a cash game lock for me.
Alex Bowman ($7,900) [ Proj. Ownership: 21%]
Starting Position: 19th
Bowman is another driver who ran in the truck race on Saturday night and was in place for a top 10 until he became collateral damage in the Friesen/Bilicki wreck near the end of the race. In the last eight road course races since 2021, Bowman has five top 10 and one top 5 which was this season at COTA. Since joining Hendrick in 2018, Bowman ahs finished 9th, 14th, and 9th at Sonoma. Bowman is and underrated road course driver and will most likely be overlooked on Sunday.
Other Options: Austin Cindric ($8,400 – P25), Kurt Busch ($8,200 – P11), Daniel Suarez ($7,700 – P8)
Driver I’m Fading: AJ Allendinger ($8,800 – P16)
Allmendinger is a well known dominant road course ringer, so why a fade? He doesn’t project at huge ownership (22%), so it’s not really that, but instead it’s Allmendinger’s inability to be successful at Sonoma. In 10 career races here, Allmendinger has only 2 top tens (2009 and 2012) and has an average starting position of 11th with an average finish of 24th. Since 2014, Allmendinger has raced here five times (in JTG-Daugherty cars) and has four finishes of 35th or worse, his best finish is 14th. After practice on Saturday, Dinger was complaining how his car wasn’t good and they had work to do. I will not talk you off playing AJ today, but I think it’s worth the risk of fading him at this salary on Sunday.
NASCAR DFS: Value Rankings
- Brad Keselowski ($6,600) – P22: In the last three Sonoma races, Keselowski has an average finish of 15.3 and an average running position of 13.7. I view Kes as a mid teens driver on Sunday which could be just enough to make value.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,800) – P32: Stenhouse is an OK road course racer. He mainly finishes in the high teens to low 20’s and while those don’t seem to impressive if he can manage another finish in that range on Sunday we will be very happy.
- Bubba Wallace ($6,400) – P27: Wallace is not known as a good road course guy and by his own admission he “sucks” a them, but this year could be different. In practice on Saturday, Wallace showed some good speed with the 11th best single lap and 12th best 5-lap average. After practice Wallace was confident and felt good about his car.
- Ty Dillon ($5,800) – P34: Dillon is by no means a road course specialist, but there is some reasons to be optimistic. If you take into account Dillon’s salary and starting position he could have a high DKFP total if attrition works in his favor. I see Ty as a mid to high 20’s play and a safe option for cash.
- Todd Gilliland ($5,100) – P24: Gilliland is super risky, but he is a good road course racer. If he can manage to get a hang of this track early on he could be competitive in pushing for a teens finish. On a personal note, Gilliland got me my first ever Truck Series takedown as a lowned play at COTA last season when he went to victory lane.
- Justin Haley ($6,300) – P18: Haley has been a low-owned driver overperforms on a weekly basis. Earlier this season at COTA, Haley came home 15th and had a 17th place average running position.
Josh Bilicki, Cody Ware, Joey Hand ,and Scott Heckert are all in play if you wanted to MME some big GPP’s today. They are all cheap and if we see the same type of attrition today that we’ve seen in 2022 so far one or more of them could have great days.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
