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NASCAR DFS: Value Rankings
Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s Kwik Trip 250 from Road America! Road America is a road course (because you didn’t know that from the name) in Elkhart Lake, Wi that is a 4.048-mile, 14-turn road course and one of NASCAR’s fastest courses. This will be only the second time the Cup Series has raced here. In that race, Chase Elliott dominated leading 24 of 62 laps with no other driver leading more than 15. This race last season was a pretty clean race with only four cars not finishing the race and only 2 cautions for incident.
Roster Construction:
There are two drivers at the top (Larson and Elliott) that I think will dominate this race and I want to have one of them in all my lineups. I like the idea of pairing them with two drivers in the mid $10K or $9K range. I will discuss which ones I prefer below. If you want to get really different, I love building a full mid-tier lineup. There are some great plays in the high $7K to $8.9K range that you could also use and have Elliott or Larson as your only top-tier play. There are only about 3-4 real good plays in the value tier this week, this is why I want to live in the mid-tier.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators)
Kyle Larson ($11,400 – P3) & Chase Elliott ($11,100 – P1)
Between these two drivers, Elliott is my preferred play and probably my favorite play on the slate. Similar to the Xfinity race on Saturday we aren’t hunting dominator points in this race so I won’t play these two together. Elliott has won seven road course races since 2018 (17 races) and has twelve top 5’s, and 14 top 10’s. In two road course races this season, Elliott has a 4th place finish at COTA and an 8th place finish at Sonoma. That eighth place is deceiving though because Elliott was fast and should have been a contender at the end, but he had a pit road penalty that derailed him.
As for Larson, he dominated the field for the majority of Saturday’s Xfinity race but was overtaken by Ty Gibbs on the last lap and finished 2nd. Last season at this race, Larson finished top 5 in both stages and had an average running position but spun after contact with Alex Bowman on lap 56 while running 4th and finished 16th. Larson is, in my opinion, a top 3 road course racer in the Cup Series and will be a contender on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney ($9,200)
Starting Position: 19th
Blaney is a top-tier road course driver that is typically overlooked in these types of races. In two road course races in 2022, Blaney has finished 6th both times and has the 2nd best average running position (8.7) and total speed ranking. Blaney didn’t show great speed in Saturday’s practice session, but he should contend for a top 10 easily. Last season at this race, Blaney had multiple on-track incidents that led him to a 20th place finish, but I am not putting much stock into that race and looking more at his 2022 road course statistics.
Ross Chastain ($10,300)
Starting Position: 12th
Chastain has become an elite road course driver over the years, and in 2022 you could make a case that he is the best right now. At COTA, Chastain came home with the win, and then at Sonoma, he finished seventh even after spinning late in the race. In the two races this season on this track type, Chastain has the best average finish (4th) and average running position (6.5) and he ranks 3rd best late in a run. Chastain was third in practice on Saturday and I expect a top 5 from Chastain on Sunday.
William Byron ($9,000)
Starting Position: 29th
Byron had a great car last year at this track and after starting on the pool he led 15 laps but had a misleading result. Byron was mired back in traffic after a bad pit stop and then went off track and that ruined his day. In that race, Byron was 9th fastest in overall speed and had the 4th best speed late in a run. In two road course races this season, Byron has finished 12th at COTA and 9th at Sonoma.
AJ Allmendinger ($9,100)
Starting Position: 21st
Allmendinger is a well-known road course expert, and should definitely be in contention on Sunday. Allmendinger is one of the top plays for cash games this week but I don’t think I will have an interest in GPP’s. While Allmendinger excels in the Xfinity Series on this track type, he seems to have issues in Cup cars. Last year at this race, Allmendinger was running well inside the top 10 but had an extended pit stop after stage 2 and finished 29th. I expect Dinger to be highly owned, and if he runs into trouble on Sunday those of us who fade him could hit big.
Other Options: Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600 – P15): Truex always runs well at road courses and is underpriced on Sunday. I don’t have him ranked higher because I expect him to carry some ownership at this starting position and salary. Kyle Busch ($10,800 – P13) – Busch will be scored from P13, but will start at the rear because of an engine change. I expect low ownership on Kyle, so he is plenty viable in GPP’s, but stay away in cash.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Austin Cindric ($8,500)
Starting Position: 5th
Cindric is a proven road course racing expert and could earn his second career win and second win of 2022 on Sunday. Only Larson and Cindric reached the top speed on the track in practice (107MPH) and Cindric was 4th fastest in single-lap speed. This season on road courses, Cindric is the fastest driver late in a run and 5th fastest in total speed rankings. Cindric has an average finish of 6.5 in the two races on this track type in 2022 with an 8th at COTA and then 5th at Sonoma.
Chase Briscoe ($8,300)
Starting Position: 2nd
Briscoe is another young gun who excels on road courses. In practice, Briscoe put down the fastest single lap time and said after practice that his car is fast and he is happy with it. Briscoe was great here at Road America in 2021 where he started 35th but finished 6th. We can expect Briscoe to have a negative place differential, but he should still be around the top 5 all day and easily make value at his low salary.
Daniel Suarez ($7,700)
Starting Position: 17th
Suarez is coming off a win at the last road course when the series was in Sonoma a few weeks ago. In that race, Suarez led 47 laps and was tied for the best total speed ranking in that race. Suarez had a car that could’ve finished top 5 at COTA but after leading 15 laps he had issues and finished 24th. Suarez should be a top 10 car on Sunday and offers some of the best PD upside for his price in this tier.
Other Options: Kevin Harvick ($8,100 – P28), Christopher Bell ($8,900 – P16), Tyler Reddick ($8,600 – P4), Erik Jones ($7,300 – P27)
Value Tier ($6.9K and under)
- Justin Haley ($5,900) – P34: Haley has two finished in the teens at road courses in 2022, and if we can get that on Sunday he will be optimal. I expect Haley to be the highest-owned driver in this tier but he is good chalk for me.
- Chris Buescher ($6,300) – P7: Nobody will play Buescher, and I am not sure why. If you look at his stats, Buescher is a good road course driver. In practice, Buescher was 6th fastest and earlier this season at Sonoma Buescher finished 2nd and was tied for the top total speed ranking.
- Michael McDowell ($6,800) – P6: Another driver that will be low-owned is McDowell. Earlier this season, McDowell finished 3rd at Sonoma and had the third-best total speed ranking. I see McDowell as a top 10 car on Sunday with top 5 upside again.
- Ty Dillon ($5,500) – P30: Dillon showed some great speed in practice and is a great piece to use with Haley in cash games or SE. This season on road courses has finishes of 20th and 23rd.
- Austin Dillon ($6,200) – P20: Dillon has finished 10th and 11th at the two road course races in 2022. I think Dillon gets overlooked in favor of his brother and Haley for salary savings on Sunday and could be a good pivot off the chalk.
- Cole Custer ($6,100) – P10: Custer has shown top 10 speed at road courses in 2022 (10th best total speed ranking). This play is risky but has the potential to pay off. Custer ran well in the Xfinity race on Saturday until his brakes failed with 2 laps left.
- Josh Bilicki ($4,700) – P26: Bilicki is a good road course driver and it showed last season when he finished 23rd here. At Sonoma, Biliki had a rough day and finished 29th, but at COTA he was 22nd.
- Joey Hand ($5,200) – P9: This is a VERY risky play, but I could see Hand being under 5% ownership. Hand’s car was fast in practice (7th fastest lap) and he kept it going in qualifying as well. If you’re making one lineup, go safe with Haley or Dillon, but if you are making multiple lineups then maybe throw Hand in one or two.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
