NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Nashville 6/26

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s Cup Series race, the Ally 400, from Nashville Superspeedway! Don’t let the name fool you this is not a superspeedway in the way Daytona or Talladega is. Nashville is a 1.33-mile concrete “short” track. This track is similar to Dover with a little sprinkle of Richmond and Martinsville. Nashville Superspeedway runs like a short flat track while having a concrete surface similar to that of Dover.

This will be only the second time the Cup Series has raced at Nashville Superspeedway and last season this race was completely and totally dominated by Kyle Larson. Can he do it again? We will have to wait and see, but Larson and the 5 car did look fast in practice and he should be a contender on Sunday. NASCAR did allow for an extended practice session on Friday night so the teams had more time on track than usual this week. Because of this, I am going to be putting a lot of stock in the practice times and speeds for this race.

Roster Construction:

There is one driver who is going to be the clear-cut chalk of the field, but he needs to be in your lineups. Outside of that, there are a variety of ways you can go in this race. With there being 210 dominator points available in this race, it will be key to get your dominators right. We saw Allgaier dominate the Xfinity race on Saturday and if you didn’t have him it was hard to cash. This race could be a little different because the chalk play is $11K, so we really can only afford one other dominator option. I am looking at this race as a potential stars and scrubs build type, but you can go the two top-tier route you can be balanced and that could work just as well.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators)

In case you didn’t already know, Kyle Busch ($11,000 – P36) is the chalk “must play” driver I was talking about in the open. Kyle spun and got into the wall in qualifying on Saturday and as a result, will start last. I hate when Kyle Busch is chalk, but unfortunately, there is no way around playing him, especially in single-entry and cash games. In his last ten races, Busch has five top 5’s and eight top 10’s. I don’t know if we can expect much in the way of dominator points from Busch but his place differential upside can easily help him clear value. Busch was top 3 in all practice metrics on Friday.

Kyle Larson ($11,000)

Starting Position: 3rd

Larson was fast and in the top four in every speed metric in practice on Friday and looks to have an exceptionally fast Chevy. Last season, Larson led a race-high 264 laps and was practically untouchable on the track. I don’t think we see that from the 5 team on Sunday, but I do see a top 5 finish and a high dominator potential from Larson. Playing the Kyle’s together might not be a popular build type because of their salaries but at the end of the day, they could be the two highest-scoring drivers. We have some good value in the low $7K to high $6K range that makes this build type work for us so don’t feel scared to go there.

Ross Chastain ($10,500)

Starting Position: 7th

If you don’t trust Kyle Larson, and I can totally see why you wouldn’t, then Ross Chastain might be the best pivot off of him. Chastain’s car seemed to improve throughout the practice session on Friday and of the seven drivers who made 20 consecutive laps, nobody was faster than Chastain. In that session, Chastain was also top five in 5-lap and 10-lap average. Starting from the 7th spot gives Chastain some better PD upside compared to Larson, but I do rank his dominator potential a little lower. That being said, Chastain did finish 2nd to Larson here in 2021 and I would not be surprised if Chastain improves that position on Sunday.

William Byron ($9,900)

Starting Position: 13th

Byron is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma in the 2022 season. We just can’t figure him out, some weeks he looks dominant, and then others he is just another car out for a Sunday drive. But maybe there’s a key? Byron was one of the best cars in this race last season. In that race, Byron started at the back (unapproved adjustments) and drove himself right through the field to finish 3rd. In Friday’s practice session, Byron was fast as well posting top 10 speed rankings in 5,10, and 15-lap average. For me, Byron is a top-five car. Could we see a repeat of the top finishers from last season in this race, well the fourth-place driver from 2021 was pretty fast too on Friday, but more on him later.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,700)

Starting Position: 10th

Truex announced that he will be back in the 19 car for the 2023 season. I am sure that decision was weighing heavy on him and he must be relieved to have that ordeal over with. After practice on Friday, Truex also said that he really liked his car and it might be the best car he has had in a practice session all season. In that session, Truex was 12th in 5-lap average but made a big jump in the longer run metrics to 7th best in 10-lap and 5th in 15-lap averages. This season Truex was great at Dover and had top two speed at the end of the race until he was wrecked on the last lap running in third. Also in that race, Truex was the fastest driver late in a run which is great for Nashville because I expect some long green flag runs here.

Other options: Denny Hamlin ($10200 – P1) – Denny has dominator potential early in this race but I think Larson and Chastain may be just a little better. Chase Elliott ($10,700 – P4) –Elliott is another driver with dominator potential and could end up in victory lane. Last year Elliott was fast at this track but came home a disappointing 13th and then was dq’d for loose lug nuts and scored as 39th. Christopher Bell ($9,100 – P9) – Bell was top ten in both 5 and 10-lap average in practice and was 9th here in 2021.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Aric Almirola ($7,500)

Starting Position: 11th

Remember earlier I mentioned that I’d have more on the fourth-place driver from 2021 in this race, well here he is, Aric Almirola. In this race last season, Almirola started on the pole and finished 4th and it was a great overall race for the 10 car. Almirola finished 4th, had the 3rd best speed ranking, was 4th best late in a run, and had an average running position of 6.4. This is a track type that Almirola typically excels at and Sunday should be no different. Almirola won’t dominate this race and probably isn’t even a top 5 upside driver, but for his salary, a low teens finish will suffice. I also think Almirola could sneak in a top 10 finish (+120 on DK is a nice number if you wanted to take that bet).

Alex Bowman ($8,700)

Starting Position: 12th

Bowman is a top 10 to top 15 car on a weekly basis. He doesn’t really do much to show up on the “highlight” reel but he is Mr. Consistent in 2022. Since Las Vegas, where he won, Bowman has only finished lower than 16th one time, at Darlington where he wrecked along with everyone else. When it comes to a DFS aspect he is consistently making value and going completely overlooked. Bowman was 15th in 10-lap average on Friday and 10th in 15-lap, I view Bowman as a top 10 car with top 5 upside in attrition goes in his favor.

Ricky Stenhouse ($7,100)

Starting Position: 25th

Stenhouse is a driver who is hard to play in DFS because of volatility and I hate writing him up for that reason. More often than not he makes me look bad, but I will give it another go on Sunday. Stenhouse was not one of the fastest cars in practice and he qualified right about where he ranked. My belief in Stenhouse comes from his recent history on this track type. Last season at this race, Stenhouse finished top 10 in both stages, had a 6.3 average running position, and was 6th at the end of the day. This season at Dover, another concrete track, Stenhouse finished 2nd. There is obviously plenty of risk with this play, but if we want to pay all the way up to the top tier, we need to find some value.

Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,300 – P19) – Busch showed some decent speed on Friday, but he will need to be faster to make value. I think Kurt can be a top 10 car if he works with his teammate and sees what made them so fast. Chase Briscoe ($8,100 – P28) – Briscoe was a top 15 car in practice but had a poor qualifying run. Last season here he was a top 10 car, but lost his brakes late and got into the wall. There is some big upside in this car, but he will be popular. Austin Dillon ($7,000 – P20) – Dillon has been pretty consistent since the series was at COTA. In his last eleven races, Austin Dillon has five top 10’s and has finished 15th or better in eight. I view Dillon as a top 15 car on Sunday.

I won’t talk you off most of the mid-tier this week but I decided that the six listed above are the best options.

NASCAR DFS: Value Rankings

1. Bubba Wallace ($6,500) – P30: Wallace is another driver that can be volatile but this week I am confident in the 23 team. Nobody was better in practice than Wallace. In Friday’s session, Wallace was 2nd in 5-lap, 1st in 10 and 15-lap, and 3rd in 20-lap average. I think Wallace will be higher owned than he usually is, but not to the extent a different driver in this position would be.
2. Todd Gilliland ($5,100) – P33: We need value and I view Gilliland as the best in this price range. On this track type in 2022, Gilliland has an average finish on 22nd and finished 28th at Dover. There isn’t much correlation from his Truck Series run in 2021 (2nd) to his potential Cup run on Sunday but I do think the knowledge of running well here in another series can’t hurt Gilliland.
3. Brad Keselowski ($6,600) – P27: Keselowski was slow on Friday and did not qualify well either. I don’t love playing Keselowski and will probably have minimal exposure to him. This season he did show some flashes at this track type so there is that. Keselowski is a good pivot off of Wallace for those who don’t trust him.
4. Ty Dillon ($5,500) – P29: Dillon has been a mid-20’s driver most of the season and I expect the same from him on Sunday. At this track type in 2022, Dillon has finished between 22nd and 27th in every race. The bottom of the value tier is weak once again so we have to make do with what we have.
5. Michael McDowell ($5,700) – P18: McDowell is usually good at finishing close to where his practice numbers are and he was a top 20 driver on Friday. I expect McDowell’s ownership to be extremely low so he could make for a great high-risk-high-reward type GPP play in large-field tournaments.
6. Cole Custer ($6,300) – P17: Custer is similar to McDowell wherein he is not a big upside play but could get you there if he just stays the course. Last season here, Custer was a mid-teens car but had a tire cut down and that ended his race.
7. BJ McLeod ($4,600) – P35: McLeod will be the slowest car on the track, he will get lapped, and he will not show any upside early in this race. Then there will be a wreck or two and a couple of cars will be out of the race and all of a sudden McLeod will be in 31st place and make value when the checkers fly.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)