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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Truck Series for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 from Michigan International Speedway! Michigan is a 2-mile low tire wear intermediate track. Similar tracks to look to for comparisons are Kansas and Auto Club. Las Vegas, Texas, and Charlotte are other tracks the series has visited this season that can be seen as comparable.
Dominator Points:
200 laps for 140 dominator points on DK
At this race last season, two drivers dominated (Larson and Elliott) by leading 138 of 200 laps. No other driver led more than 18 after those two but the winner was Ryan Blaney who only led 8 laps. Similar to how our builds were on Saturday for the Xfinity race, we will want two potential dominators with one place differential play from the top tier. Continuing to look back at last season, only 2 cars were starting outside the top 10 that would finish inside the top 10 and I think this race will break down similarly.
Looking at the optimal comparables from four races this season (AC, Vegas, Kansas, & Charlotte) we will see that stars and scrubs aren’t necessarily the way to go. In all four lineups, there were never more than 2 value tier drivers in a lineup; in fact, there was only one value tier play in two of the four lineups. This week will be no different, we can easily build lineups with 3 top-tier, one mid, and two value-tier plays.
Roster Construction:
As I mentioned above, I believe a balanced build is an ideal way to go. Something that we don’t typically have is drivers who can be viewed as dominators in the mid-tier, but this week we do. There will be builds that could potentially be optimal with one driver in the mid-tier and one top-tier driver as their two dominators. There are also two thought processes to have when building. If you think this race runs clean then the PD plays may not be fruitful and we could see 7-8 drivers starting in the top 10 finish there. But, if you think this race has some attrition then the PD plays are the way to go. For me, I think I will focus on using my PD plays in the value tiers and try to build based on finishing position and potential dominator points.
NASCAR DFS: Toyota’s Dominate P&Q
Toyota dominated Saturday’s practice session and in qualifying. In single lap speed, Toyota’s took the top 5 spots, and then in 5, 10, and 15 lap average Toyota’s were top four in all three categories. Kyle Busch ($10,500 – P3) is probably the best bet to dominate this race as well as the safest play of drivers starting in the top 5. Busch had the fastest single-lap speed and the third fastest 5-lap average. After Busch, Denny Hamlin ($10,300 – P9) is the next best potential dominator. Hamlin was third fastest in single-lap speed, but he had the best 5,10, and 15-lap averages. Hamlin is a potential dominator as well as the best cash option in the top tier.
Bubba Wallace ($7,400 – P1) won his first career Cup Series pole and should be able to dominate this race. Wallace was incredibly fast in practice and typically runs well on this track type. In Saturday’s practice session, Wallace was the fastest in group B and second only to Kyle Busch in single-lap speed. In 5,10, and 15-lap average, Wallace was second best to teammate Hamlin in all three. Christopher Bell ($9,000 – P2) was not one of the drivers who had top 5 speed in practice but he was 15th fastest in single-lap speed. Bell then put down an amazingly fast lap in qualifying that put him on the front row with Wallace. I believe both of these drivers could lead the bulk of the laps and finish top 5.
Both Ty Gibbs ($6,600 – P11) and Martin Truex Jr. ($9,500 – P7) were fast in practice posting top 5 single-lap speeds. Gibbs specifically had a good practice session on Saturday posting the 4th best single-lap and 5-lap average and the third fastest 10 and 15-lap averages. Not to be outdone, Truex was 5th fastest in single-lap and 7th best in 5-lap average.
In conclusion, I love the Toyota’s this week and I plan to be overweight on all of them. Busch is the best play, while Hamlin is the safest play and the best option for cash. Both Truex and Wallace need to win to get in the playoffs so we could see them using some pit strategy to get themselves up front to try and win this race. I believe we see Gibbs, Wallace, and Bell be extremely low-owned and are all great GPP plays.
NASCAR DFS: Other Potential Dominators
Obviously, the Toyota’s are the top plays, but there is no guarantee they will dominate this race. Both Chase Elliott ($10,900 – P13) and Kyle Larson ($10,700 – P8) have dominator potential in this race as they did last year. Elliott was top 10 in single-lap speed and was 5th and 6th respectively in 5 and 10-lap average. Elliott is also the hottest driver in the series and cannot be overlooked with his place differential and dominator upside. Larson wasn’t exceptionally fast in practice, but on this track type in 2022 he has been great. Larson has three top 5’s and four top 10’s and a win at Auto Club. In those four races, no driver has averaged more DKFP or FDFP per race.
Tyler Reddick ($9,700 – P6) is riding his momentum from his second career win last week at Indy and should be a contender on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, Reddick was the fastest non-Toyota (6th) and had the 6th best 5-lap average.
Other Options: Ross Chastain ($10,000 – P22), Ryan Blaney ($9,300 – P24), William Byron ($9,200 – P20)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Alex Bowman ($8,200 – P30) had the 9th fastest single-lap speed and 8th best 5 and 10-lap average in Saturday’s practice. Bowman has also faired well at this track type with a win at Las Vegas as well as two other top 10 finishes. If this is a clean race then it may be tough for Bowman to get through the field, but if he can finish top 20 he could make value anyway. Another driver who has been great at this track type is Kevin Harvick ($8,400 – P16). In four races at this track type in 2022, Harvick has two top 10’s and an average finish of 9.3. Harvick has the best place differential in these races with a +15.3.
Austin Dillon ($7,300 – P26) is another driver who will need some attrition to have an outstanding day but similar to Bowman he is cheap enough that a top 20 will have him making value. Dillon has an average finish of 12th in four races at this track type as well as one top 5 finish.
Other Options: Erik Jones ($8,100 – P10), Chase Briscoe ($7,500 – P23), Joey Logano ($8,800 – P4)
Value Tier ($6.9K and under)
- Austin Hill ($6,400 ) – P31
- Ricky Stenhouse ($6,700) – P28
- Cole Custer ($6,200) – P17
- Todd Gilliland ($5,200) – P37
- Aric Almirola ($6,800) – P18
- Justin Haley ($5,900) – P21
- Harrison Burton ($6,000) – P27
- Corey Lajoie ($5,400) – P32
Driver I’m Playing you probably shouldn’t:
Noah Gragson ($5,600) – P12
Cash Core:
Hamlin, Blaney, Bowman, and Austin Dillon will leave you $7,450 per driver for your last two drivers.
Check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to ensure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
