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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 from Kansas Speedway!
This week the series heads to Kansas for the second race of the first round of the playoffs. Earlier this season, Kurt Busch led 116 laps and won the race here. Unfortunately, Kurt has still not been medically cleared to compete so he won’t be going for a Kansas sweep on Sunday. With Erik Jones winning last Sunday at Darlington no driver was able to clinch their spot in the second round so all 12 spots are still up for grabs on Sunday.
We have 400 miles of racing on Sunday to look forward to and that means 267 laps of dominator points (186.9 points) to try and procure on our way to cashing. Unlike the Truck and Xfinity races here in recent years, the lap’s lead points can be spread out. In the three previous races, one driver has led over 100 laps, but in the three before that, no driver led 100 laps. With how this season has gone, I am going to lead with a more spread-out lap leader strategy and while still looking to have 1-2 dominators in every lineup, I will also play the place differential game.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier/Dominators
Potential Dominators:
Kyle Larson ($10,700)
Starting Position: 7th
Larson has been of the best drivers at this track over the previous two seasons. In the last two years, Larson won the fall race here last season and finished second earlier this season. Larson has also led the most laps at Kanas in two of the previous three races as well. Larson was top three in 5, 10, 15, and 20-lap averages in Saturday’s practice session. Throughout the season, Larson has shown speed at this track type ranking top five in 3 of the 4 races at similar tracks (Charlotte being the outlier) in total speed ranking and fourth overall.
Tyler Reddick ($9,800)
Starting Position: 1st
Reddick’s Chevy was absolutely flying around the track on Saturday and it showed in the speed charts. After both practice sessions were complete Reddick stood atop every speed ranking from single-lap speed to all of the lap averages. In that session, the high line was the obvious fastest line and Reddick is best when he can fun the top. Reddick will be hard to pass on Sunday and with there being so many “good” plays in this tier starting in the 20s I expect him to have low ownership which makes him my favorite GPP target.
Other Options: Christopher Bell ($9,600 – P4) – Bell was the fast car until Reddick found that high line. I still expect Bell to be fast and compete for the win on Sunday. William Byron ($9,100 – P9) – Byron was good here in the Spring but had issues that had him end up 16th. I view Byron as a long shot to win, but definitely someone with top 5 upside at next to no ownership. Ross Chastain ($10,000 – P5) – Chastain has the best total speed ranking at this track type in 2022, and I expect him to be near the front all day unless someone decides to “get him back” of course.
Place Differential:
Denny Hamlin ($11,000)
Starting Position: 25th
Hamlin is going to be chalky and he should be, and because of this, he is the best cash game option on the slate. Even though he will be highly owned, I still want him in tournaments. Hamlin has the potential to score the most fantasy points on both sites and that is what makes him playable in all contest types. Hamlin is second to only Chastain in total speed ranking at this track type in 2022 and while he didn’t show speed in practice, I have no doubt it will be there because we saw other Toyotas show speed.
Kyle Busch ($10,900)
Starting Position: 20th
Busch has been great at Kansas in recent years including his third-place finish here in the spring. Since 2020, in five races Busch has had one win and three top 5 finishes. Similar to Hamlin, Busch wasn’t overly fast in practice, but I have no doubt they will find speed and push for the win.
Other Options: Chase Elliott ($10,500 – P22), Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300 – P12)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Kevin Harvick ($8,700)
Starting Position: 14th
Harvick had a terrible night in Darlington last Sunday when his car burst into flames. Harvick’s issues led to NASCAR making some safety changes to the cars this week. Similar to Darlington, Harvick has been outstanding at Kansas in recent years. Since 2020, Harvick has only finished outside the top 5 once (Spring 2022) at Kansas.
Alex Bowman ($8,200)
Starting Position: 3rd
I know no one reading this will play Alex Bowman, but that’s ok because I will. Bowman has been good at this track type in 2022 and ran well here at Kansas since joining Hendrick. In ten races at Kansas, Bowman has never finished outside the top 20 and has six top 10s including a 9th place finish this spring. Bowman has a win in 2022 at Las Vegas and is 11th in total speed ranking on this track type.
Bubba Wallace ($8,000)
Starting Position: 5th
Here is yet another driver I know you won’t play, but should. Wallace is driving the car that won this race in the spring and showed speed on Saturday. In the spring race here Wallace finished 10th despite his crew trying feverously to make him fail with multiple mistakes on pit road. If you go back to the second Atlanta race (9 races), Wallace has only finished lower than 14th once (Watkins Glen – Suspension issue) and has five top 10s in that span. Wallace is on a good run of form and I think he can potentially win this race on Sunday.
Other Options: Erik Jones ($7,800 – P24), Ryan Blaney ($8,900 – P17), Austin Cindric ($7,500 – P8)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
Both Ricky Stenhouse ($6,300 – P35) and Aric Almirola ($6,500 – P36) are the obvious chalk in this tier and are cash game locks. I will be sprinkling them into my GPP lineups, but I will do my best to not play them both together. Stenhouse did run really well here in the spring starting P36 and finishing 8th. In that race, Stenhouse was one of the top DKFP scorers and the top FD scorer. Almirola has top 15 upside here, but I am still slightly concerned that his team couldn’t fix the issue (not sure what it was) and he may just run around the back of the field all day.
- Chris Buescher ($6,900) – P10 – Buescher was fast in practice and will be a low-owned pivot off of the chalk value plays.
- Noah Gragson ($6,100) – P28 – Gragson had his best finish at a non-superspeedway here in the spring (18th) and is riding high off of back-to-back Xfinity Series wins.
- Justin Haley ($5,500) – P27
- Michael McDowell ($6,700) – P23
- Cole Custer ($6,000) – P29
- Todd Gilliland ($5,4000) – P32
- Landon Cassill ($5,200) – P31
Cash Core:
Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Almirola, Stenhouse: This core leaves you $7.6K per remaining driver on DK, which is a lot of salary to play with.
Check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial! Ensure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
