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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Toyota Owners 400 from Richmond Raceway. Richmond is a short flat track that is similar to Phoenix. In the past, the Joe Gibbs Toyotas have dominated at this track but this season they have not been good at all. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch have combined to win five of the last seven races at Richmond including the last time the series was here in the fall when Truex won and led 80 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second and led a race-high 197 laps. Overall in that race, JGR Toyota’s led a combined 326 of 400 laps.
On the other hand, we have seen drivers like Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, and Alex Bowman dominate early this season in the new NextGen car. While the Toyota’s were fast in practice, it will be hard to trust them based on what they have done THIS season. All three of Bell, Truex, and Busch have shown flashes of greatness this season, but Hamlin has been, well, trash this season. Hamlin doesn’t seem to have a grasp on the sequential shifting and personally, I want to see him have a good performance before I will consider rostering him. Let’s see what we come up with for this week.
Roster construction
DraftKings decided to make the salaries a joke this week and it looks like the optimal build will be to go with 2 dominators and load up on the mid-tier. With 400 laps in this race and 280 dominator points available it will be crucial to get as many of those points as possible. With this many points, scores will be high on Sunday.
***** I will be running 20 lineups today, so I will have exposure to drivers not in the article *****
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)
Ryan Blaney ($9,400)
Starting Position: 1st
Practice was short and every team has its own objective but the 12 team fielded the fastest car in practice. Blaney was fastest in all lap averages except the 30 lap (Larson) and then landed on the pole in qualifying. Richmond has not been Blaney’s best track, but he does have his best two finishes ever in his last two races here. Earlier this season at Phoenix, Blaney finished 4th, led 143 laps, and had the second-best speed ranking. On the season, Blaney has the top overall speed ranking. Blaney is a potential dominator at an extremely low price and should be your top play on Sunday.
Kyle Larson ($10,200)
Starting Position: 21st
Larson starts deep in the field, so he is the best place differential play and works nicely with Blaney. We all know Larson has the potential to dominate this race right alongside Blaney and showed his long-run speed in practice. In that short practice session on Saturday, Larson was top 2 in all lap averages from 10-lap to 30-lap. In his last seven Richmond races, Larson has finished top 10 in five of them.
Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600)
Starting Position: 6th
Here is our first JGR Toyota on the list and he is likely to be the best one at the end of the day. If a Toyota is going to win this race, my money would be on Truex. In practice on Saturday, True was top five in 10, 15, and 20-lap average. Truex is running his most successful paint scheme this weekend as well, the blue Auto-Owners Insurance scheme (if you believe in that type of thing). All the Joe Gibbs teams have a new setup for this race, and after practice Truex was gushing over how well his car felt and ran, so I think there is a good chance this team has their car ready for Sunday.
Other Options: Chase Elliott ($10,500 – P15) – Good PD upside and showed decent speed in practice. Kyle Busch ($9,900 – P3) – If the JGR cars have figured out the car for Sunday, Kyle could lead 200 laps and win. Unfortunately, we know until the race starts, but I am willing to take the risk with Kyle. Joey Logano ($9,200 – P11) – Logano runs well at Richmond and has top-fives in four of his last five here.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)
Ross Chastain ($8,900)
Starting Position: 8th
Chastain is hot right now coming off his victory last week at COTA. Coming into this weekend, Chastain has an average finish of 2nd in the last four races and has not finished lower than 3rd in any of those races. Earlier this season at Phoenix, Chastain finished 2nd, was the fastest driver late in a run and had the 6th best green flag speed. Chastain and the 1 team didn’t push their car in practice because it seems like they know they are good. I expect another solid finish and top 5 from Chastain on Sunday.
Alex Bowman ($8,500)
Starting Position: 28th
Bowman is the reigning winner of the spring race here at Richmond and should be highly owned on Sunday. We saw the chalk rule the day on Saturday and I think we may need to look to those types of builds as well on Sunday. I love the upside Bowman has in this race and his car was faster in practice than 28th. On Sunday, look for Bowman to be a top 10 car with top 5 upside.
Tyler Reddick ($8,200)
Starting Position: 16th
Reddick is way too cheap for his upside this week, especially now that he is starting from P16. This season, Reddick has been one of the fastest cars each and every week. At Phoenix this year, Reddick finished 3rd and had the fourth-best speed ranking.
Other Options: Austin Dillon ($7,000 – P25) – Similar to Reddick and Bowman, Dillon has huge upside for cheap. Kurt Busch ($7,900 – P27) – Busch was good at Phoenix this season and if the Gibbs cars are good, so should the 23XI cars. Daniel Suarez ($7,800 – P14) – Suarez like his teammate Chastain, has been having a great season. I expect him to be lower owned than Chastain and could be a great pivot off the chalk. Erik Jones ($7,600 – P5) – The upside on Jones is capped but he has been having a resurgence this year in the new car. I like Erik Jones as a great GPP play.
Value Tier (Under $7K)
- Bubba Wallace ($5,900) – P29: Wallace is another driver underpriced on this slate. I don’t expect Wallace to carry much ownership in what could be a huge DFS day for him.
- Ty Dillon ($5,200) – P30: Dillon has only one finish outside the top 20 this season(Atlanta – wreck) and should be seen as a top 20 driver again on Sunday.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,500) – P32: Stenhouse perpetually runs near the front, but has some type of incident that sends him back and ends his day. I will go back to the well on Sunday and hope for a better result.
- AJ Allmendinger ($6,700) – P26: Dinger ran exceptionally well in the Xfinity race on Saturday finishing 4th. I don’t expect that type of run on Sunday, but a top 20 is definitely in the cards.
- Justin Haley ($6,300) – P36: Haley will be down a lap early, but he should get it back early. On Saturday, Haley was running top 20 laps in practice and has an avg finish of 17.7 on the season.
- Corey Lajoie ($5,400) – P31: Lajoie looks like a top 25 car with top 20 upside on Sunday. His price is low, and the PD upside is there but there are other drivers in better equipment I like more.
- Chris Buescher ($6,800) – P18: Buescher has value if you are playing large-field GPPs, but otherwise he is too risky for cash or SE.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
