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This week we get our first “short track” of the season which means we have a plethora of dominator points on the table on Sunday. Sunday’s race has 312 laps which convert into 218.4 dominator points. At this race last season, Joey Logano led 143 laps but he would finish second to Martin Truex Jr. who led just 64 laps on his way to victory. Last fall at the Championship race it was more balanced with three drivers leading at least 72 laps and all three would finish in the top 5.
Phoenix has been dominated by two teams over the last few seasons. In the last seven races, six of them have been won by either Hendrick or Joe Gibbs cars including the last three. Logano winning in March of 2020 is the only outlier in this stretch, but we do have a Penske car on the pole on Sunday in Ryan Blaney so maybe this streak can be snapped. We have had six different winners in the last six races at Phoenix and if that trend is to continue on Sunday I could see one of Blaney, William Byron, or Tyler Reddick going to victory lane on Sunday.
Roster construction
Last season at this race, eight of the top ten in DKFP started inside the top 10. Looking back at the optimal lineups at that race none of the top 5 scoring lineups had more than two value tier plays so we are looking at a more balanced approach. I think we can implement that same lineup building style on Sunday, there is even enough value in the lower-priced top tier and mid-tier that building lineups with one value play is totally feasible.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)
Kevin Harvick ($9,100) [Proj. Ownership: 31%]
Starting Position: 16th
Harvick has been one of the most dominant drivers in the history of Phoenix Raceway. Since 2012 (20 races), Harvick has had 19 top tens. Yes, you read that correctly, Kevin Harvick has finished in the top 10 nineteen of his last twenty races at Phoenix. Harvick also has 14 top 5’s and seven victories. Harvick wasn’t great in practice posting just the 24th best single lap, but during the long runs, he had top 10 speed and I expect a 20th top 10 in 21 races on Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800) [Proj. Ownership: 29%]
Starting Position: 20th
Truex wasn’t fast in practice, but I am not worried about his lack of speed. Phoenix is one of MTJ’s better tracks with two straight top 2 finishes and five top 10’s in his last seven here. In the last six races here, Truex has an average finish of 8.8 and is averaging 32.2 fastest laps and 24.5 laps led. On Sunday I view Truex as a top 10 car with top 5 upside.
Kyle Larson ($11,800) [Proj. Ownership: 24%]
Starting Position: 7th (will start at the rear)
Larson had the best car in practice on Saturday and I don’t have any worries about him having to start at the back. In 10 lap average Larson was 3rd fastest and in 15, 20, and 25 laps he was tops. Larson led 107 laps and won at Phoenix last fall en route to winning the Cup Series Championship. Since 2018, Larson has a 4.2 average finish which is the best in the series during this time and has not finished below 7th in any race.
Ryan Blaney ($9,600) [Proj. Ownership: 27%]
Starting Position: 1st
Blaney was another car that was incredibly fast in practice and it’s no surprise he is on the pole for Sunday. Blaney was a big letdown last Sunday, but at no fault of his own, he was taken out by the wreck starter himself, Brad Keselowski. I don’t expect Blaney to be caught up in any wreck on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, Blaney was 2nd fastest in EVERY category, trailing only Larson in averages and Austin Cindric in single lap speed.
Other Options: Joey Logano ($10,400 – P10) – Logano has to be considered a favorite on Sunday because of his track history here. Chase Elliott ($10,700 – P19) – Elliott was not one of the fast cars in practice, but that isn’t a worry, Elliott loves Phoenix and will be a top 10 car on Sunday. William Byron ($9,400 – P3) – Byron had the fastest 10 lap average and was top five in single lap speed. Kyle Busch ($11,200 – P11) – Busch is expensive but there is some upside here. He won’t be starting dead last like last week, but Busch traditionally runs well at Phoenix.
Denny Hamlin usually runs well here, but I need to see him finish a race before I can pay $10,100 in salary to roster him. If you think this is the week he turns it around, go for it, but for me, he is a fade.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)
Ross Chastain ($8,100) [Proj. Ownership: 26%]
Starting Position: 17th
Last week Chastain was the one driver I missed on, but not this week. Trackhouse has been fast and been near or at the front of the field for a good portion of the last two races and Chastain should be a threat to get there again on Sunday. Chastain is an aggressive driver and we have seen that the guys who drive like him have the most success in the Next-Gen car. In practice, Chastain was top 10 in both single lap speed and 10 lap average.
Ricky Stenhouse ($7,000) [Proj. Ownership: 38%]
Starting Position: 36th
Stenhouse had a top 20 car in practice, but then the engine gave out (valve spring) and he was unable to make a qualifying attempt which means he starts dead last. Hendrick was able to give him a new engine to put into this car so we know it will be fast and I think this is a chalk play that you need to eat and enjoy the +20 place differential. I view Stenhouse as a top 15 car with huge upside and little to no downside.
AJ Allmendinger ($7,200) [Proj. Ownership:]
Starting Position: 29th
In his Cup career, Allmendinger has never really run well at Phoenix, but this car is probably the best he’s ever had here. In practice, Allmendinger had a top 10 single lap time and was 16th in 10 lap average. Allmendinger came home 7th in the Xfinity race here while running as high as 2nd and spending 95.7% of the race in the top 15. Now, I know these stats don’t translate but just getting seat time on this track and running as well as he did has to be a confidence boost for Dinger for Sunday’s race.
Other Options: Tyler Reddick ($8,500 – P12) – I love this play for Sunday, the only reason he wasn’t higher in my rankings was because of salary. I think we need the $7K drivers if we want to go three deep on dominators. Brad Keselowski ($8,200 – P18) – While Keselowski has wrecked plenty of drivers this season he has kept his own car pretty clean. Kes has top 10 upside on Sunday. Austin Cindric ($7,700 – P8) – We go from the old driver of the #2 to the new one. Cindric was fast in practice, even producing the fastest single lap time. I view Cindric as a potential top 10 car, but realistically a mid-teens car.
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)
- Bubba Walalce ($6,400) – P27: Bubba was much faster in practice than his qualifying postion would lead you to believe (13th in SL and 10 Lap avg). On Sunday expect a mid teens performance out of the 23 team.
- Cole Custer ($6,200) – P25: Custer did not have a great run in practice, but I epxect his team, with the help of Harvick, to get this car right and gain some speed as the race progresses.
- Harrison Burton ($5,700) – P24: Here we are again with another driver who was great in practice but it did not translate to a good qualifying effort. This typically happens when a car is trimmed out for racing, not qualifying. Burton is a top 15 car on Sunday in my eyes.
- Todd Gilliland ($4,900) – P33: I expect some ownership for Gilliland on Sunday, but if you need the savings you will have to eat this chalk. It’s neccissarily good chalk, but he is the only option I am considering in this price range. Gilliland is one of the top Fpts/$ plays on this slate.
- Daniel Suarez ($6,600) – P23: Suarez wasn’t fast in practice but we have seen these Trackhouse over perform on the season, so why not Suare again on Sunday.
- Justin Haley ($6,000) – P28: Haley should some speed on Saturday in practice and I view the 31 car as a top 20 upside play.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
