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Hittin the track in Vegas!
This week the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Vegas for the second leg of their west coast trip. Las Vegas Motorspeedway is a smooth intermediate 1.5-mile track. Unlike last week in Fontana, tire wear will not be an issue but track position will. We can still look to Auto Club as a gauge since it is the only intermediate track the NexGen car has raced at this season.
NASCAR held an extended practice this weekend as opposed to the 20 minutes the teams had last week. To no one’s surprise, Kyle Larson dominated practice and had the fastest single lap, 5 lap, and 10 lap averages. There was only one driver who bettered Larson at any length, William Byron was fastest in 15-lap and 20-lap averages. Byron’s car will be good on the long run with Larson. Another driver who was fast on Saturday was Ryan Blaney. Blaney was the only driver other than Byron who was top 3 in all facets of practice, running the best 25-ap average. Kyle Busch spun early in practice after running top 10 speeds and will be going to his backup car, but this also means he didn’t run a qualifying lap and will start dead last.
Roster Construction
Short and sweet… load up on the top tier. I like 3-4 dominator builds this week, similar to the Xfinity race. There is plenty of value in this race that makes these types of builds easy to do.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)
Kyle Larson ($11,300) [ Proj. Ownership: 34% ]
Starting Position: 2nd
Nobody had a better car in practice than Larson and he should be the top dominator in this race. With track position being key, Larson starting on the front row should give him the chance to get out front early and lead laps. Larson is coming off a victory last week and won at Vegas last fall. Larson is the favorite to win this race and he is my pick as well.
Kevin Harvick ($9,100) [ Proj. Ownership: 39% ]
Starting Position: 25th
Harvick was not fast in practice but he was running consistent laps and we have seen the Fords run well in every race this season. In three of his last four Vegas races, Harvick has finished no worse than 10th but his one poor performance was at this race last year where his team just missed the setup (no practice or qualifying). I believe that this car will be faster on Sunday and come home with a top 10.
William Byron ($9,800) [ Proj. Ownership: 18% ]
Starting Position: 14th
Fast Willy B was just that on Saturday in practice. Byron was top two in all multi-lap averages he ran in (Byron did not run 25 consecutive laps) and was the only driver to do so. Las Vegas is a track where Byron typically runs fast, but he has had some issues. The last time the series was here in the Fall, Byron was a top 5 car all day but had a ton of issues and finished 18th. Last season at intermediate tracks, Byron had the top speed ranking and was either 1st or 2nd in speed in the last five races.
Ryan Blaney ($10,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 23% ]
Starting Position: 11th
Blaney will be a top 5 car on Sunday. He may not finish there, because the unpredictable can always happen in NASCAR, but Blaney was fast in practice and should be in contention for the win on Sunday. Blaney has an average finish of 6.6 in the last five Vegas races and has finished 7th or better in eight of the last ten.
Kyle Busch ($10,200) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 47% ]
Starting Position: 37th
Like I mentioned in the open, Busch will be going to his backup car and be starting dead last. Busch’s backup car is said to not be “race ready” so there is a chance this car might not be competitive on Sunday. I still expect Busch to be highly owned but because of the potential upside, I will have some shares. This is one of Kyle’s better tracks with an average finish of 4th in the last three races and finished 3rd in both races here in 2021.
Other Options: Joey Logano ($10,800 – P6) – Logano is a pivot off of the chalky Busch and was running really fast laps in practice on Saturday. Chase Elliott ($11,000 – P5) – Expensive, but another fast Hendrick car. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,500 – P12) – MTJ is the pivot off Harvick in GPPs or MME. Could be a top 10 car with top 5 upside. Tyler Reddick ($9,300 – P7) – After how well Reddick has run this season it will be hard to fade him. I may not have a lot of exposure but I will have Reddick in some lineups.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)
Kurt Busch ($8,900) [ Proj. Ownership: 36% ]
Starting Position: 31st
Kurt Busch is either a top 8 car or 20th or worse car at Vegas in his last six races here with no in-between. On Saturday, Busch was showing top 20 speed in practice but had a terrible qualifying effort. Busch is another driver who will carry high ownership, but I like the idea of pairing him with three top-tier lower-owned drivers.
Erik Jones ($7,300) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 37% ]
Starting Position: 23rd
Erik Jones has been outstanding to start the season and was one of the best cars last week at Auto Club. Jones finished 3rd after finishing 2nd in both stages. At Fontana, Jones’s accomplishments continued with the best total speed ranking, best green flag speed, the best driver rating, a 4.3 average running position, and 2nd fastest driver late in a run. This team seems to have intermediate tracks figured out and because of this, Jones will be high on my radar on Sunday.
Christopher Bell ($8,200) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 29% ]
Starting Position: 1st
Bell is risky as he and the JGR Toyota’s have not run well so far this season but he showed plenty of speed on Saturday. In practice, Bell was 2nd in single-lap speed, and third in 10-lap average. Last year at this race, Bell finished 7th after running top 10 all day and 6th in stage 1 and 7th in stage 2.
Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,700 – P13), Daniel Suarez ($7,000 – P21), Aric Almirola ($7,800 – P20)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)
- Daniel Hemric ($5,800) – P16 : Hemric has a fast car running top 10 practice speeds in every category he ran in. I might have more exposure to Hemric than any other driver in the field.
- Cole Custer ($6,700) – P24: Custer was faster in practice than his qualifying effort showed. We saw Custer run well at Auto Club last weekend and I expect a top 15 from the 41 on Sunday.
- Chris Buescher ($6,500) – P27: There is some upside to Buescher on Sunday, but I only see him as a top 20 car on Sunday. His speeds were in the mid 20’s on Saturday.
- Harrison Burton ($5,900) – P19: Burton ran well in practice with mid teens speed. We know the Fords have performed at high levels this season, so Burton could surprise but reaslitically he is a top 15 car at best.
- Ty Dillon ($5,600) – P32: I don’t expect much from Dillon on Sunday since he ran speeds right around his qualifying effory. With attrition this is a top 20 car, but it will take a lot for that to happen.
- Bubba Wallace ($6,300) P17: Wallace had good long run speed in practice and could be a contendor for a top 10, but a more realistic expectation is mid to high teens
All three of Michael McDowell, Corey Lajoie, and Todd Gilliland are three sub $5.5K plays that can be used in four dominator builds. Lajoie was the fastest of these three in practice but they all project around the same points.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
