rmferenc@gmail.com 
Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Cup series for the 2022 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play. There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
California dreamin‘
I had a whole different into planned for this open before practice and qualifying took place. If I am being honest I have no idea what to expect on Sunday afternoon. We saw six cars wreck in some way in practice, and then in qualifying five more spun. I would hope that the teams were able to figure out what happened and have fixed the issue that led to this. With so many cars having issues we won’t have 1-2 chalk plays, we instead have 5-6 drivers who will be popular but ownership could be spread out since you cannot roster all of them. One driver who will be in the group starting at the rear is Kurt Busch. This is a different situation from the rest, Kurt failed tech 3x’s on Friday so he wasn’t allowed to make a qualifying lap and will have to serve a pass-through penalty. Busch is the riskiest play of the drivers starting at the rear but he was 14th in practice and 10th in 10-lap average. It is pretty much a given that Busch will go a lap down early, but there will be plenty of time for him to recover and get back on the lead lap. You won’t Busch in this article, but I expect to have some exposure to Busch on Sunday, but he won’t be my highest owned driver.
Roster Construction
I planned on doing a typical two dominator build for this race because of how the laps led in the previous five races have gone. Similar to the Xfinity Series, typically two drivers lead 75-80% of the laps in races at Auto Club. But with so many drivers that fit the dominator tier, we may be looking at three dominator builds. There is still some value in the mid-tier but very little in the value tier. Luckily we can actually build a variety of lineups with the way this field panned out. Let’s get started!
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)
Kyle Larson ($11,600) [Proj. Ownership: 23%]
Starting Position: 13th
Larson is an interesting play this week. He did not have a great practice, but it was only 15 minutes of track time so it’s hard to really get a gauge on what he can do. We do know that Larson can drive anything to victory lane and he has done so here in the past. Larson should come in at much lower ownership than usual because of the PD plays elsewhere in the field but he has the car and the ability to lead the majority of this race and win.
Kevin Harvick ($9,200) [Proj. Ownership: 45%]
Starting Position: 32nd
On the opposite end of the pricing in this tier is Harvick. Harvick was one of the many cars who had issues in practice and went around in turn four early in the session. This is a track Harvick performs well at with eight top 10’s in his last 12 races here including a win in 2011. For his price, upside, and past track history Harvick is the best of the bunch coming from the back.
Kyle Busch ($10,400) [Proj. Ownership: 30%]
Starting Position: 3rd
Kyle was one of the best cars in the limited practice time the teams had. Busch was 2nd in both single lap and 10-lap practice with Denny Hamlin (single lap) and Chase Elliott (10-lap) being faster. Busch has seven top 3 finishes in the last nine races here and has finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the last three races. During those three races, Busch is tops in average finish (2nd), average running position (4.5), fastest laps per race (33.3), and laps led (65.3).
While nothing has been announced at the time of writing, there is speculation about Kyle having to start at the back because of unapproved adjustments. I will post any updates on this in discord if and when they become available. As of now, he is a top play, but if he goes to the back I will reassess any potential changes to his status for this race fantasy-wise.
Alex Bowman ($9,000) [Proj. Ownership: 22%]
Starting Position: 14th
When the Cup Series was here last in 2020 Bowman was the winner and should be a contender again on Sunday. Bowman was top 5 in practice on Saturday in single lap times but he did not run a 10-lap stretch. Bowman had the fastest car in this race in 2020, but I don’t think that will be the case on Sunday. I view Bowman as a top 10 car with top 5 upside.
Ryan Blaney – $10,000 P6:
Blaney is someone I am just coming around on and while he didn’t show a ton of speed in practice he does project at low ownership (around 20%) and is capable of winning. Blaney is a GPP play because of the potential downside. In 2020 they had a tire vibration that caused them to pit late while running near the front and they were not able to recover. Blaney is a dark horse candidate to win this race, but could also finish in the high teens. He is definitely a high-risk high-reward type of play on Sunday.
Other Options: Denny Hamlin ($10,700 – P4), Chase Elliott ($11,100 – P8), Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800 – P12)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)
Christopher Bell ($8,000) [ Proj. Ownership: 28%]
Starting Position: 19th
Bell was another one of the drivers that went for a spin in practice on Saturday but he managed to save his car from damage and will not need to go to his backup. Before he went around, Bell did run the 5th best 10-lap average lap as well as the 9th fastest single lap. Bell had some success at high tire wear tracks in 2021, and I see him as a low teens driver with top 10 upside. This is purely a salary and ownership play because other drivers may project for more points in this tier but they will be more popular and their upside is capped.
Bubba Wallace ($7,000) [Proj. Ownership: 43%]
Starting Position: 34th
Wallace finished 2nd last week at his best track type, but this week when I did not plan on using him he ends up not getting to put a qualifying lap down and makes himself playable. Wallace spun out in practice (because who didn’t?!) and had damage that sent him to the garage which disqualified him from qualifying. In that practice session, Wallace did have the 7th fastest lap before his spin. I know he will be high owned, but the upside here of a top 15 makes it hard to fade Wallace especially if you play the lower owned drivers listed above.
Aric Almirola ($7,400) [Proj. Ownership: 37%]
Starting Position: 31st
Another driver and another one who took a spin in practice. It’s going to be impossible to fit all of these drivers starting at the back in, but Almirola might be among the best options. We know the Fords have dominated early on this season and being back there with a teammate in Kevin Harvick to work with as they work through that field will help Almirola. In his three races at Auto Club, Almirola is yet to finish lower than 12th in any race.
Other Options: Brad Keselowski ($8,600 – P9), Ross Chastain ($8,200 – P33), Tyler Reddick ($8,400 – P11)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Justin Haley ($6,500) – P35: Haley was another driver who didn’t get to qualify. No driver in this tier that has the potential to have a great positive place differential.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,200) – P17: Stenhouse will have almost no ownership (around 10%) but had a car that had top 5 long run speed. This care has top 10 upside
- Cole Custer ($5,900) – P21: Custer dominated the Xfinity race on Saturday and should be in contention for a top 15 on Sunday.
- Todd Gilliland ($5,300) – P26: Limited upside here, but is the best in the ow $5K range if you are in need of salary relief.
- Michael McDowell ($5,700) – P23: McDowell has top 15 speed in practice and should be a top 20 car on Sunday.
- Erik Jones ($6,400) – P2: This is a risky play, but Jones and Ty Dillon were both fast in practice and at his salary if Jones can finish around the top 10 he could make value at 5% ownership.
Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!
