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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the first road course of the season at Circuit of the Americas, otherwise known as COTA. This winding 3.4-mile road course produces some great action but is a difficult course for NASCAR since it was designed for Formula 1 racing. While I may reference practice speeds in this article, they aren’t the end all be all for me. No driver ran more than seven laps in practice so it’s hard to get a real gauge on what these cars can do. Because this race was run with a different car and in the rain, it is hard to use that race as a basis on how this race will go. No matter the generation of car or weather, good road course drivers always prevail and Sunday will be no different. I’ve mentioned it previously this weekend, but we are not chasing dominator points in this race. With only 68 laps in this race, it means we only have 47.6 dominator points available.
Roster construction
Looking at salaries and drivers we want to play, this seems like a 3-1-2 build for me. This means I want three dominators with two value drivers. Depending on which value drivers you go with, you can either roster a mid $8K or low $7K mid-tier driver. There are really a lot of different ways to go, but that style build is where I think the best path to victory will come from.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)
Chase and the Two Kyle’s!
These three drivers are the top three priced drivers and will all be starting between 12th and 15th on Sunday. I like all three of these drivers and anticipate having plenty of exposure to all three of them.
Chase Elliott ($10,500 – P12)
Elliott is my favorite of this group and the one driver I would focus on fitting in if you’re building only one lineup. I hope you have some time because the list of accomplishment’s on road course I am about to go through could take a while. Over his last eight road course races, Chase has the most wins (3 – tied with Larson), best average finish (5.5), and the most top 5’s (6). Elliott is second to Larson in both average fastest laps per race and laps led per race. Elliott also trails only Larson in average running position with an avg RP of 8.7 (6.6 for Larson). Lastly, Elliott has the most average DKFP and FDFP per race during this eight-race span. I know Elliott will carry some high ownership, but when someone is as dominant as Elliott has been it’s hard to fade that kind of upside.
Kyle Larson ($10,400 – P13)
I listed a few of the things Larson has over Elliott above, so you already know he is a solid play at this track type. Larson has three wins and four top 5’s in the last 5 road course races. I know that Larson’s Chevy was not that fast in practice and he had some issues with it, but this team will have this car ready for Larson on Sunday and he will surely move through the field when the green flag flies.
Kyle Busch ($10,200 – P15)
As I mentioned in Saturday’s Xfinity article, Busch dominated this race in that series last year and he also ran well on Saturday in the Truck Series race. Busch clearly has this track down and should be a contender for the win on Sunday. In the last five races at this track type, Busch has four top 5’s and an average finishing position of 7.2. During this same stretch of races, Kyle is second to only Elliot in DKFP and FDFP per race.
William Byron ($9,300)
Starting Position: 24th
William Byron has been a solid road course racer of late, but he just doesn’t have the results. Over the last five road course races, Byron has an average finish of 23.6 but his averaging running position is 10.5. Last season at this track type, Byron has a sixth place finish and two 11th place finishes but then had four finishes in the 30’s. I know there is a lot of negativity there about Byron, but he has had some bad luck with good cars and hopefully momentum is on his side coming off a victory last week. I view Byron as a top 10 car on Sunday.
Austin Cindric ($9,500)
Starting Position: 10th
Cindric was known as a road course specialist earlier in his career, he has since evolved into an all-around racer who can win on any track type. In three career Cup Series road course races, Cindric has not had any real success but no by his own doing. At Indianapolis G.P., Cindric fiished 9th but at both Road America and COTA he had issues and finished 38th and 25th. Cindric is a GPP only play for me and is not safe for SE or cash.
Other Options: All the drivers in this tier are in play for us on Sunday. Looking at the remaining drivers, I rank them as such:
- Martin Truex Jr. ($9,700 – P17)
- Joey Logano ($9,100 – P6)
- Ryan Blaney ($10,000 – P1)
- Denny Hamlin ($9,800 – P8)
- Christopher Bell ($9,000 – P7)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)
This week the mid-tier is loaded with great plays, the top one is semi-obvious if you watched the Xfinity Series race on Saturday. AJ Allmendinger ($8,800 – P20) was the class of the race and is a dominant road course racer. I know Dinger will be popular, and a fade here is risky, but I won’t argue against it either.
Ross Chastain ($8,200)
Starting Position: 16th
Chastain, and Daniel Suarez ($7,100 – P2), are both great plays this week as they have been all season. Trackhouse Racing seems to have the Next Gen car figured out. Chastain was running up front all day in the Xfinity race before being spun out on the last restart by Landon Cassill. While his finish wasn’t what he deserved on Saturday, Chastain has this track down it appears and should be a top 10 lock with top 5 upside.
Tyler Reddick ($8,400)
Starting Position: 4th
Could Tyler Reddick break up the Hendrick party at the top (I mean, he is kind of Hendrick adjacement, but I digress)? Reddick has been fast all season and he ran well here at COTA last year in this race. In that race, Reddick started from the pole and finished 3rd in stage 2 and was running 5th late in the race before spinning. Reddick came back to finish with a top 10 in that race. In the final road course race of 2021, the Charlotte Roval, Reddick finished 2nd, his best finish in a Cup race.
Erik Jones ($7,400)
Starting Position: 30th
Jones was spectacular at road courses in 2021 with an average finish of 14th and didn’t finish lower than 19th in any race. In 2022, Jones and the 43 team have shown speed all season and they should be in contention for a solid finish again on Sunday. When it comes to Jones, he is a good driver, he just has some bad luck occasionally and if he can avoid those hiccups on Sunday he could be a top play and compete for a top 10.
Other Options: Chase Briscoe ($8,900 – P14), Chris Buesher ($7,300 – P22), Alex Bowman ($8,500 – P5)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)
- Joey Hand ($5,000) – P38: Hand was looking fast in practice but had a tire come apart late and shredded the car. This #15 will be getting help from Stewart-Haas so we know it will be fast. There is minimal risk with this play making him chalky, but it’s good chalk. I see Hand as the top value play.
- Michael McDowell ($6,200) – P27: McDowell had success early at road courses in 2021, but was not as successful late on. This is a risky play, but there is plenty of upside with McDowell.
- Ty Dillon ($5,100) – P33: Dillon has finished 26th or better in all five of his last five road course races with an average finish of 21.8.
- Kaz Grala ($5,900) – P31: Grala is a road course specialist and he ran well here in the Truck Series last season. Grala finished 2nd and led 11 laps in that race.
- Corey Lajoie ($5,400) – P32: In 2021 at this track, Lajoie finished 20th and had an 18.3 average running position.
- Ricky Stenhouse ($6,900) – P28: Stenhouse had a 17.2 average finish at road courses in 2021. This is a risky play but with top 15 upside, a low owned Stenhouse could be a difference maker.
- Andy Lally ($5,200) – P39: Lally had issues with his car on Saturday and was unable to make a practice run and qualifying appearance. On Sunday, Lally will be seen as a mid 30’s play.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
