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Atlanta has been renovated since the last time the NASCAR Cup Series was here in July of 2021. The 1.5 oval was reconfigured to have 28-degree banking from 24 degrees, which is higher than any other 1.5-mile track. The front stretch was widened as well. These changes were done to promote a superspeedway style of racing similar to Daytona and Talladega.
Kurt Busch stated that “Once we got out there in a group the pace picked up by over a second having the cars draft together… things were amplified way more than what we expected when we had just three cars drafting with each other”. Ross Chastain also said that you will “need friends to navigate the draft”. Both of these drivers tested tires for Goodyear at Atlanta back in January.
Roster construction
We saw it all come apart at the end of the Xfinity race on Saturday night and while that could happen on Sunday, I don’t think it will. There are some great place differential plays in this race, the best of those being Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. One thing I did notice in the Xfinity race was you needed teammates to move through the field and the same will most likely be true on Sunday. Similar to MLB and NHL, stacking teammates might not be a bad idea. Now at the finish of the Xfinity race, the teammate pushing fell apart some, except for Kaulig, but it was key to leading laps early in the race. This is a 500-mile race with 325 laps on Sunday meaning we have 227.5 dominator points available in this race.
Looking at build types for this race, we don’t really need to value tier. Pricing is such that you can easily run a 2-3-1 type build with 2 dominators, 3 mid-tier, and one value. Depending on which top-tier drivers you use, a 3-2-1 build is also a possibility. No matter the build type you go with, I think one value driver is all you’ll need on Sunday.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)
Kyle Larson ($10,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 52%]
Starting Position: 21st
Larson was not fast in single-lap speed, but over the long run he really picked it up. In the 5-lap average Larson was 10th, and he was top-5 in the 10, 15, and 20-lap averages as well. I know this is a new racing surface and the field will be racing differently on Sunday, but it’s hard to think that Larson won’t be good on Sunday and potentially dominate a good portion of this race.
Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas:
All four of their Cup cars were great in practice on Saturday. The best of the bunch may have been the driver not in this price tier, Christopher Bell ($7,700 – P27). Bell was the top car in 10-lap average as well as third in single lap speed. Kyle Busch ($9,800 – P4) was 2nd in single-lap speed, third in 10-lap avg, and he was atop the chart in five-lap avg. Denny Hamlin ($10,100 – P15) was 8th in single-lap speed and 5th in 10-lap average so it could be a good sign for the veteran. Hamlin has not had a good year so far, but this speed is promising for him. Lastly, Martin Truex Jr.($9,200 – P26), could end up being the best play of this group. Truex was 9th in single-lap speed and 11th in 10-lap average.
Chase Elliott ($10,300) [ Proj. Ownership:13% ]
Starting Position: 6th
Elliott was fast in practice and is someone I will look to play with Larson in lineups. Similar to Larson, Elliott did not have a great single-lap run (11th), but he did have the 2nd best 10-lap average. Elliott also had the 2nd best 15-lap average and the 3rd fastest 20-lap average.
Other Options: Ryan Blaney ($10,700 – P2): Blaney didn’t have a great practice session and is the most expensive driver in the field. I do think Blaney gets ahead of Briscoe and leads the early portion of this race. Blaney won’t be highly owned at his price and starting position. William Byron ($9,400 – P12): Byron wasn’t fast in practice, but both Larson and Elliott were so I am not worried about Byron. Tyler Reddick ($9,000 – P5): Reddick WAS fast in practice and he has been so close to wins multiple times this season some would say he is due. RCR uses Hendrick engines, so using Reddick with the HMS cars is a good way to be different.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)
Ricky Stenhouse ($7,100) [ Proj. Ownership: 31% ]
Starting Position: 28th
Stenhouse is a great superspeedway driver and he showed amazing speed in practice on Saturday. In that practice session, nobody put down a faster lap than Stenhouse did and he was also 6th fastest in 10-lap average. Stenhouse is another Chevy that uses Hendrick engines. With the speed he had in practice and the potential to get through the field with the HMS cars makes Stenhouse of my favorite plays in the field on Sunday.
Bubba Wallace ($7,300) [ Proj. Ownership: 19% ]
Starting Position: 19th
Wallace has always been a better superspeedway driver than he has at 1.5-mile tracks. With Atlanta working as a mini-superspeedway, Wallace should perform well on Sunday because of this. Wallace will run with the JGR Toyota’s, if he can link up with them that is. On Saturday in practice, Wallace was a top 20 car in practice.
Brad Keselowski ($8,600) [ Proj. Ownership: 23%]
Starting Position: 24th
Will Brad Keselowski wreck anyone on Sunday? Well, yes he most likely will. Keselowski was showing some decent speed on Saturday, but he was great in superspeedway races so far this season. Keselowski won his duel before the Daytona 500 and ran great at Daytona (while wrecking half the field at that). I view Kes as a top 15 car on Sunday.
Other Options: Austin Cindric ($7,800 – P16), Alex Bowman ($8,800 – P11), Austin Dillon ($7,400 – P17)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)
- Harrison Burton ($6,400) P31: Burton has not been great, but he showed speed on Saturday. In practice on Saturday, Burton was fourth in single lap speed and was 16th in 10-lap average.
- Erik Jones ($6,900) P23: Jones is having his best season in two years and showed some good speed on Saturday. In practice, Jones was top 15 in single lap speed and was 8th in 5-lap average.
- Michael McDowell ($6,600) P29: McDowell is another driver like Burton and Jones, that showed some good speed on Saturday. In reality, all three of these drivers project similarily so I suggest that you use who ever fits your build best.
Cole Custer ($6,300 – P20), Corey Lajoie ($5,300 -P33), and Daniel Suarez ($6,800 – P13) are the next group of three that can be used in this tier. While I like Suarez, you are better off with one of Burton/McDowell/Jones.
Ty Dillon ($6,000 – P18), Noah Gragson ($5,800 – P30), and Chris Buescher ($6,700 – P14) are the last three viable options in this tier. Gragson has the best PD upside, while Buescher has had the most success at superspeedways.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
