NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Dover 5/1

Welcome back to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s race from The Monster Mile, Dover Motor Speedway. I’m not gonna lie, Dover can produce some of the most boring races in NASCAR because of how hard it is to pass at this track. On the other hand, we can get a race as we had in the Xfinity Series where there was some late-race excitement and pit strategy that led to a great finish.

Looking over the practice and qualifying info it appears that once again the four cars from Hendrick Motorsports will dominate this race. Last season they finished in the top four spots, lead 382 of 400 laps, and were the top four highest-scoring drivers on DraftKings. Alex Bowman (winner) was the only one of the four to start outside the top 10 in that race. We have that same scenario with William Byron starting P33 on Sunday while his three teammates start 3rd, 4th, and 6th.

I know this is a different car, but I think Dover is a track where experience matters no matter the vehicle and that is what will win on Sunday.

Roster construction

Sunday’s race is 400 laps which means we have 280 dominator points on DraftKings and those points will go a long way to getting a takedown. Five of the top ten DKFP drivers started in the top 10 last season and six in the top 16. Chasing place differential in this race is not the best option in this race instead, we want to pinpoint dominators and finishing position. Of course, you can grab one or two drivers who will be top 10 cars who start near the back, but you should look to pair them with drivers starting near the front.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($11,800)

Starting Position: 3rd

Kyle Larson is at the top of the charts in pretty much every single category when it comes to Dover over the past few seasons. In his last three races at Dover, Larson has led an average of 139 laps, run 68 fastest laps, averages 110.7 DKFP, and 95.2 FDFP per race (all are series best). Larson also has an average finish of 2nd, an average running position of 2.9, and finished top 3 in all three races. In practice on Saturday Larson was top 5 in 5,10,15, and 20 lap averages. I think you know where I am going with this, play Larson on Sunday. I know the price is sky high, but the return could be huge.

William Byron ($11,000)

Starting Position: 33rd

Byron had some bad luck on Saturday and crashed right at the beginning of practice and in turn, will be starting at the rear of the field. I am not worried about this in the least about the 24 car on Sunday though. We saw Kyle Busch have a great race in a backup car at Vegas earlier this season and Byron’s team always brings fast cars. Byron has back-to-back 4th place finishes at Dover and should be a contender for a third straight top 5 finish. At Dover last season we saw Byron’s teammate, Chase Elliot, start at the back and finish third. Everything points to Byron being just fine on Sunday and while he will be uber chalk, it’s similar to the Ryan Sieg chalk we had to just eat on Saturday to cash.

Chase Elliott ($11,300)

Starting Position: 4th

I know it may look like it, but I am not just listing all the Hendrick drivers. They just happen to be the best options in this race and while it doesn’t seem feasible, you can roster all three $11K drivers in this race. If you remove his wreck in 2020 and engine failure in 2019, Elliott only has one finish outside the top 5 in his 9 other starts at Dover. In practice on Saturday, Elliott’s car improved over the session as he was the top driver in 15 and 20 lap average speed.

Kyle Busch ($9,100)

Starting Position: 10th

If anyone can break up the Hendrick party at the front, it could be Kyle Busch. For whatever reason, Kyle has not run well here in the spring, but Dover is one of his better tracks. Before having a mechanical issue last season, Busch had an average finish of 7.6 in the previous five races. In Saturday’s practice session, Busch was 5th in 10 and 15 lap average and 3rd in 20 lap average. Busch has an outside chance to win this race and is a pretty good bet for a top 5.

Other Options: Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800 – P18), Alex Bowman ($10,100 – P6), Joey Logano ($10,600 – P22), Kevin Harvick ($9,300 – P11)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Austin Cindric ($7,300)

Starting Position: 12th

You all probably expected to see Tyler Reddick in this position, and he will have his moment later. If we want to roster two $11K+ drivers, we need a cheaper mid-tier option, enter Austin Cindric. In his rookie season, Cindric has been very up and down but he does have four top 20 finishes in his last five races. This will be Cindrics first Cup Series Dover race, but in the Xfinity Series, he was outstanding. Cindric had four straight top 3 finishes including a victory in his last Xfinity Series Dover race. In seven races at Dover, Cindric never finished lower than 9th in the Xfinity Series. I know using a risky at this track is risky, but Cindric isn’t a typical rookie.

Tyler Reddick ($8,800)

Starting Position: 26th

If you are playing cash games, then a core of Larson/Byron/Reddick will be the path. In GPP you can still play Reddick and you can use him with Byron if you so desire. Reddick has been so close to winning so many times this season and while that win will come for him I don’t think it will be on Sunday. Reddick had issues in practice which also explains his poor qualifying effort. I still view Reddick as a top 10 car on Sunday.

Ross Chastain ($8,600)

Starting Position: 7th

It is hard to doubt Chastain in 2022. This team has been dominant pretty much all season, but especially of late. Chastain has a series-best six top 5’s in 2022 to go along with his two victories. Dover is a track where you have to drive hard and physically that is something Ross Chastain does exceptionally well.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($8,100 – P17), Daniel Suarez ($7,900 – P8), Kurt Busch ($7,500 – P16), Austin Dillon ($7,600 – P24)

Value Tier (Under $7K)

1. Aric Almirola ($6,600) – P27: Almirola should be a mid-teens driver on Sunday based on his track history. In cash games, Almirola is another safe option to use with the core I mentioned earlier.
2. Cole Custer ($6,100) – P30: Custer appears to have this track figured out in his young career. In three career races at Dover, Custer finished either 10th or 11th. Custer has been good this season, that is when his car makes it through the race. In ten races, Custer has finished 23rd or better in seven of ten races. His three finishes lower than 23rd were all races when he wrecked or had engine issues.
3. Erik Jones ($6,800) – P25: Jones is in the same category as Almirola and will most likely be a mid-teens driver on Sunday. In four of the last six races, Jones has finished 14th or better. That is where I see him finishing on Sunday.
4. Ryan Preece ($5,700) – P15: Preece is in the RWR #15 car this week, but he showed speed that no Rick Ware car has shown in 2022. I believe that Stewart-Haas Racing has had a hand in building this car for Sunday. Preece was top 5 in all speed averages on Saturday and while he had speed he is still super risky. For me, Preece is a great GPP play.
5. Justin Haley ($5,500) – P14: Haley is another risky driver, but we know what we are getting in this 31 car. Haley has back-to-back top 15’s and has four in his last six races. Haley showed top 10 long-run speed in practice on Saturday.
6. AJ Allmendinger ($6,200) – P19: Dinger had a great showing on Saturday, and while I don’t expect him to be a top 5 car on Sunday, he could be a top 15 car in attrition is in his favor.
7. Ty Dillon ($5,900 – P31), Todd Gilliland ($5,400 – P34), and Harrison Burton ($5,000 – P35): All three drivers here have limited upside, but are key pieces to getting our three $11K drivers into lineups. I listed them in order of preference above. None of them are going to blow the doors off and finish top 10, but a top 25 would give you what you need from them.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)