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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday Night’s Southern 500 from the track Too Tough Too Tame, Darlington Raceway!
This should be one of the best races of the season as Darlington always creates a great race atmosphere, just like we saw with the Xfinity race on Saturday. Couple that with the fact this is the first race of the Cup Series playoffs and we should be in for a fun night.
Darlington is a unique track usually won by veterans who have experience here. This race will come down to pit strategy and which drivers take care of their tires the best. Because of this, I will focus on which teams had the best speed late in a run from the spring race as well as which drivers had fast laps times near the end of practice on Saturday. Picking dominators correctly will be key also since this is a long race with 367 laps equalling 256.9 dominator points on DK.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier/Dominators
Chase Elliott ($10,700)
Starting Position: 23rd
Elliott won the regular season championship but now he wants to win the Cup Series Championship and that starts with a dominating performance at Darlington on Sunday. With that being said, I don’t think Elliott dominates this race, but he should be the best place differential play in this race and comes with huge upside. Elliott has never won at Darlington but he is coming off a top 5 in the spring race here and has finished 7th or better three times since 2020. Elliott was in line to win in the fall race in 2020 but hit the wall hard after being passed by Truex leading to him finishing 20th after leading 114 laps.
Joey Logano ($9,800)
Starting Position: 1st
Joey Logano did dominate here in the spring and looks to have a repeat performance on Sunday night. In that race, Logano led the most laps (107), had the most fastest laps (30), had the best average running position (2.4), and had the highest score on DraftKings all while going to victory lane from the pole. Logano didn’t look exceptionally fast in practice this week, but I am not overly concerned. We know this team has a fast car, evident by their starting position and Logano knows how to race here and take care of his tires. I don’t like it, but I think Logano completes the double dip and wins from the pole here again on Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr. ($9,500)
Starting Position: 17th
Truex is one of only three drivers in the field who have multiple wins here (Hamlin and Harvick) in their career and don’t be surprised to see him add another on Sunday night. Earlier this season at this track, Truex was a contender as he finished top 5 in both stages, led 28 laps, and had an average running position of 6.4 until he got some damage while running fourth in a “big one” on lap 260. Truex had one of the top cars in practice putting up a top 5 single lap and more importantly, he was top 2 in all lap average speeds from 5-lap through 20-lap.
Tyler Reddick ($10,500)
Starting Position: 4th
Reddick is one of those drivers who loves to run the top line and this race is a top line race. This is a risky play because of where he starts and his salary but for GPP’s, Reddick could be the difference. In the spring race this season, Reddick finished second to Logano and was 3rd best late in a run and 5th best in total speed ranking. Reddick was second to Bell in quality passes with 47 (times a driver passes another drive in the top 15 under green).
Other Options: Both Kyle Larson ($11,400 -P7) and Denny Hamlin ($11,100 – P11) are great at Darlington, but their prices are what makes me leery of using them too much (I will have some exposure). I would rather use Elliott for a little less salary with higher PD upside and some dominator potential over both Larson and Hamlin. I will say if you’re a numbers person all those 11’s associated with Hamlin could be good luck today. Ross Chastain (10,000 – P12).
NASCAR DFS: Mid-Tier
Kevin Harvick ($8,500)
Starting Position: 18th
Kevin Harvick and Darlington are like a match made in heaven. The only things Harvick may love more than racing at Darlington are his wife and kids. Harvick was still driving the #29 for Richard Childress Racing the last time he didn’t finish in the top 10 (2013). In the thirteen races since then, Harvick has three wins and ELEVEN top 5’s. Those are insane numbers for any driver at any track. Combine how well he runs here and with his current form, it’s hard to not want to roster Harvick. I love Harvick on Sunday and he is a cash game must and is certainly playable in GPP’s as well.
William Byron ($8,900)
Starting Position: 3rd
Now here we have a GPP-only play in William Byron. Similar to Reddick because of his salary, starting position, and recent form Byron is a super-risky play. But, his #24 Chevy was incredibly fast in practice on Saturday and he kept the speed going in qualifying as well. Byron was 2nd to only Austin Cindric ($7,600 – P6) in single-lap speed, had the 4th best 5 and 10-lap averages, and 6th best 15-lap average. Darlington has been a pretty good track for Byron in recent years as well with two top 5’s (20 and 21) and a 13th place finish earlier this season after leading 24 laps.
Daniel Suarez ($8,000)
Starting Position: 36th
Suarez starts dead last but will have to serve a pass-through penalty at the start of the race because his car failed tech inspection three times. This will almost certainly put Suarez a lap down early but he can fight back and have a solid day. I view Suarez as a mid-teens finisher and is another driver you need to play in cash. If you want to go here for GPP’s by all means do so, but just know he will potentially be a 50% or higher owned driver. Darlington isn’t a great track for Suarez, but he did have his best finish (10th) earlier this season here so there is that.
Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,200 – P16), Christopher Bell ($8,700 – P2), Erik Jones ($7,200 – P15)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Ricky Stenhouse ($6,500) – P20: Stenhouse isn’t going to lead laps or even finish top 10 (most likely) but he is a teens driver historically at this track and should be again on Sunday.
- Chris Buescher ($6,900) – P27: Buescher didn’t have a ton of speed here on Saturday, but I expect a positive PD day out of Buescher and with attrition a top 15.
- Aric Almirola ($6,400) – P22: Almirola has eight top 20’s in his last nine races here at Darlington. In practice, Almirola showed mid-teens speed.
- Cole Custer ($5,500) – P30: It appears all the SHR cars are showing some speed this week and I expect Custer to be a good PD play on Sunday. I don’t know how much I’d go here in GPPs, but in cash, I want all the Custer.
- Todd Gilliland ($5,300) – P31
- Ty Dillon ($5,800) – P29
- Harrison Burton ($5,800) – P28
Cash Core:
Elliot or Truex, Harvick, Suarez, Custer
Check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial! Ensure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
