Adam Strangis 
Happy Easter and welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for the Cup Series Bristol Dirt race! I’m just going to come out and say it, these races suck. I know I am in the minority with that statement but it’s how I feel. I have never watched REAL dirt racing so it is not something I am accustomed to and it is not something I want in NASCAR. These vehicles are meant to drive on paved roads, not dirt especially manufactured dirt tracks. These races are not overly enjoyable for me to watch, but also they are next to impossible to predict for DFS and betting purposes as well.
2021 Lookback
Looking back over the 2021 version of the Bristol Dirt race we see that it is similar to how the truck races played out in 2021. Joey Logano led the second-most laps (61) on his way to winning the inaugural race. Logano was one of only 5 drivers to lead a lap in that race. Only 31 cars of the 39 that started this race finished the race and only 19 of those cars finished on the lead lap. Martin Truex Jr. led the most laps in that race (126) but finished as the last car on the lead lap.
Practice:
We had two practice sessions on Friday afternoon, so the teams have a good idea of what their cars can do. Also, the drivers got a feel for the track and how the car will respond. Kyle Larson is one driver who took what they learned in the first practice and worked on their car and were much happier after Happy Hour.
Roster construction
On Sunday night we have 250 laps of “dirt track” racing so that means we have 175 dominator points available. As I mentioned earlier, we saw two drivers dominate this race in 2021 and we saw the same thing happen Saturday night in the truck race. It’ll be important to get the two dominators right when building for Sunday because of this. There are a good group of drivers in the mid and value tiers so this seems like a race where building balanced lineups is the way to go.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)
Kyle Larson ($11,200) [ Proj. Ownership %: 33%]
Starting Position: 5th
Larson is the best of the best when it comes to dirt racing and he should be considered the favorite on Sunday night. Like I said in the open, Larson’s team worked on his car after the first practice on Friday and gave him a great car. Larson was tops in 20 and 25 lap average and was top five in 5, 10, and 15 lap average in final practice. In his heat, Larson started 6th and finished 3rd. Larson should push Christopher Bell for the early lead on Sunday night and is capable of dominating this race from beginning to end.
Tyler Reddick ($9,200) [ Proj. Ownership %: 41%]
Starting Position: 3rd
Reddick is another one of the top dirt racers in this race. In his heat race on Saturday, Reddick won and led 11 of 15 laps. Looking back at Friday’s practices, Reddick was atop the leaderboard in 5, 10, and 15 lap average. With how well Reddick has run in 2022 combined with his dirt racing prowess I view Reddick as a top 5 car with the potential to get his first career Cup Series win.
Christopher Bell ($10,800) [ Proj. Ownership %: 28%]
Starting Position: 2nd
Bell, like Larson and Reddick, is a first-class dirt racer and should be a threat to win this race as well. In his heat on Saturday, Bell led 6 laps on his way to victory after starting 5th. In practice on Friday, Bell was top five in both 5 and 10 lap average but he did dip after that. I am not worried about his car falling off after 10 laps and view Bell as a top 5 car on Sunday. Another positive for Bell is that he was helping spot youngster Buddy Kofoid in the Truck Series race so it’s safe to assume he gained some knowledge watching that race happen live and hearing how the track was running throughout the race.
Chase Briscoe ($9,800) [ Proj. Ownership %: 16%]
Starting Position: 4th
You are probably noticing a trend, the top plays are all starting upfront. Outside of Cole Custer starting from the pole, all the drivers starting inside the top 5 are great plays, including Briscoe. Like the previous three drivers, Briscoe is an accomplished dirt racer both in and out of NASCAR. Briscoe has a win (2018) in the Truck Series on dirt and has an average finish of 3.6 in his final three truck races on dirt. Aside from his great record on dirt, Briscoe has been having a career year with an average finish of 9th (removing COTA) and finished 3rd in his heat on Saturday.
William Byron ($10,000) [ Proj. Ownership %: 21%]
Starting Position: 19th
So we already broke down the dirt “experts” starting up front, and now we have a great place differential play in William Byron. Byron is the only multi-race winner in 2022 thus far and I am not predicting him to win this race, but a top 10 is definitely in reach. Rudy Fugle, Byron’s crew chief, has a dirt racing background so that gives Byron a boost. Last season at Bristol dirt, Byron had an average running position of 4.9, finished 2nd in the first stage, and came home 6th at the end of the day.
Other Options: Joey Logano ($10,600 – P10), Ryan Blaney ($9,400 – P25), Chase Elliott ($10,300 – P9), Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600 – P30)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,700) [ Proj. Ownership %: 21%]
Starting Position: 16th
Stenhouse has not been great or even good for that matter in 2022, but dirt is the great equalizer. This weekend Stenhouse has had a good car. In final practice on Friday, Stenhouse was only behind Reddick in 5 and 10 lap average. His car did fall off a little as the practice session went on, but he did rebound to finish with the 13th best 30 lap average. Last season at this race Stenhouse finished 2nd after running a smart, clean race. As a World of Outlaws team owner and another dirt racing expert, I expect Stenhouse to pull out a top 5 this year on the dirt.
Austin Dillon ($7,400)[ Proj. Ownership %: 15%]
Starting Position: 12th
Austin Dillon is having a great 2022 so far and is coming off a third-place finish in Martinsville, his third straight top 10. This weekend, Dillon has been fast ranking in the top 10 in all speed segments in happy hour outside of 5 lap average where he was 12th. In his heat, Austin started 8th but climbed up to 5th at the end. Dillon is an exceptional dirt racer who had some bad luck at this race last season.
Alex Bowman ($8,900) [ Proj. Ownership %: 11%]
Starting Position: 8th
Bowman had a top 5 car at this race last season, but he had issues under the hood and ended up 22nd. In 2022, Bowman has been running great race after great race. This season since Auto Club, Bowman has an average finish of 7.8 which ranks second-best during that stretch. Bowman was third in his heat race on Saturday and had top ten speed in 15 and 20 lap average in Friday’s final practice.
Higher Owned Plays:
All drivers listed above are the low-owned plays to pair with some of the higher owned drivers in the top tier. There are a good amount higher projected owned drivers who are great plays in this tier as well. All four drivers listed below are projected at 25% or higher but they are safer, place differential plays.
- Ross Chastain ($8,500) – P33
- Denny Hamlin ($8,700) – P34
- Daniel Suarez ($8,300) – P21
- Kevin Harvick ($8,100) – P32
Value Tier (Under $7K)
- Todd Gilliland ($5,400) – P23: Gilliland has been the best car in this tier, but because of this and his low price he will be super chalky. Gilliland projects around 30% ownership with the next highest driver being Aric Almirola at 16%. I do like Gilliland this week, but for GPP’s you can pass on him and look elsewhere.
- Michael McDowell ($6,400) – P17: McDowell is the anti-Gilliland this week. He was faster in happy hour, but not as fast as Gilliland, and is a thousand dollars more. One major difference is the projected ownership, McDowell only projects at 12%. If you are going with some of the lower-owned mid-tier options in SE tournaments, go, Gilliland, if not then look to McDowell.
- Justin Haley ($5,600) – P6: I know Haley is scary starting from P6, but he has been fast. Haley won his heat from 2nd leading all 15 laps and in happy hour his car got better as he ran laps. Haley was top 10 in 25 and 30 lap average.
- Aric Almirola ($6,800) – P31: Almirola has had a fast car all weekend, which is why he comes in as the projected second highest owned driver in this tier. Almirola is the safer play in the high $6K salary range over McDowell at not much higher ownership.
- Ty Dillon ($6,200) – P7: Ty Dillon, much like his brother, is a great dirt track racer and it has shown all weekend. Dillon is similar to Haley where his starting position will scare people off which is why he projects at 5% ownership.
- Josh Williams ($4,900) – P36: Williams starts dead last and his car has not been that good. All that being said, Williams is a veteran driver who, with attrition, could pull a top 30.
- Noah Gragson ($5,300) – P28: Gragson is the #16 for Kaulig this weekend and his car has been faster than expected. In happy hour on Friday, Gragson was top 20 in all speed segments. I view Gragson as a top 25 car with mid-teens upside with attrition.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
