rmferenc@gmail.com 
Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race from Bristol Motor Speedway!
This should be a really fun race to watch on Saturday night. There will be a lot of bumping and banging as teams fight for the final spots in the second round of the playoffs. When it comes to DFS, we have 500 laps of racing in this race which translates to 350 dominator points. Track position is key in this race and as we saw in both the Truck and Xfinity Series it is hard to pass. Unless you make a pit strategy call, it will be hard to fight through the field. Similar to those races I will be looking at practice speeds to determine which drivers are viable for this race. With there being so many dominator points we should be looking to use at least 2 potential dominators per race.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier/Dominators
Potential Dominators:
Kyle Larson ($10,800)
Starting Position: 5th
Kyle Larson said he has never had an easier car to drive at Bristol than the one he has for Saturday’s race. Looking at how fast he was in practice, it’s hard to argue with Larson about having a great car. In Friday’s practice session, Larson was 3rd and 4th in 5 and 10-lap averages and he was tops in 15-lap through 30-lap averages. Larson is my pick to lead the most laps in this race, potentially 300 or more, and be the highest scoring driver on DraftKings.
Denny Hamlin ($11,500)
Starting Position: 4th
Hamlin was another driver who had a fast car on Friday, finishing with the best 5 and 10-lap averages, and should push Larson for the total laps led title on Saturday. Over his career, Bristol has been a good track for Hamlin but recently he hasn’t had great results. Hamlin has been running well recently in 2022 and I expect another top 5 from the 11 team on Saturday.
Alex Bowman ($8,200)
Starting Position: 3rd
Bowman has never really been great at Bristol, but he is coming off his career-best finish at this track of 5th last season. Bowman also has back-to-back top 10’s at Darlington and Kansas. In Friday’s practice, Bowman was top 10 in all speed categories and while he is a longshot pick to dominate this race, the potential is there. While I believe both Larson and Hamlin are safe cash game type plays, Bowman is a good GPP play.
Other Options: Christopher Bell ($10,200 – P8), Aric Almirola ($7,000 – P1)
Place Differential:
Kyle Busch ($10,500)
Starting Position: 21st
Kyle Busch had an eventful week, but this isn’t the time to go into his future. Bristol is one of Kyle’s best tracks and he should have another great race on Saturday night. I know I said I probably won’t roster him this season again, but it’s hard to overlook the huge upside here with Kyle. Since the fall race in 2017, Kyle has three wins and six top 5’s in eight races. In Friday’s practice session, Busch’s car improved as he ran more laps and while there is always the potential for carnage here I think this race ends relatively clean and Kyle comes home with another top 5.
Joey Logano ($9,500)
Starting Position: 15th
While Chase Elliott ($11,200 – P23) may have more place differential upside, I prefer to take the nearly $2K savings and go with the hotter driver. Logano has the best average finish in the series over the last six races (7.7). Bristol hasn’t been nice to Logano lately but as a two-time winner of the Bristol Night race and with his current run of form, I am confident that Logano has a solid night on Saturday.
Other Options: Chase Elliott ($11,200 – P23), Tyler Reddick ($9,900 – P17), Ross Chastain ($9,200 – P12)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Kevin Harvick ($8,500)
Starting Position: 7th
Kevin Harvick needs to win this race to move on in the playoffs so we can expect pit strategy from this team to put him in the best spot to do so. Harvick also has some dominator potential because he needs to win. Harvick had long-run speed in practice on Friday with the second-best 15-lap though 30-lap averages.
Erik Jones ($7,900)
Starting Position: 24th
Erik Jones should be in contention for a top 10 on Saturday night. Jones is the only driver in the field with three straight top 10s at Bristol. In one of the weirder narratives I’ve seen in DFS, Jones has finished 11th or better in every other race since Gateway (14 races) and last week Jones finished 29th. I know it’s not a real analysis, but it is really strange because I have never seen anything like that.
Bubba Wallace ($8,300)
Starting Position: 14th
Wallace is coming off his second career win last week in Kansas and should be a factor again on Saturday. Bristol has been a pretty good track for Wallace in recent years with three finishes between 10th and 16th in the last four races. In his last nine races, Wallace has finished 13th or better in eight of those races (Watkins Glen – Suspension issue) and has four top 5’s in that span.
Other Options: William Byron ($8,700 – P16), Ryan Blaney ($8,900 – P6) – Blaney could be a low-owned dominator in this race. Chase Briscoe ($7,600 – P2) – Similar to Harvick, Briscoe probably needs to win this race to move on and his team could employ a pit strategy to keep him near the front. Austin Dillon ($7,700 – P28) – Big place differential upside for a driver who must win to advance.
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Brad Keselowski ($6,400) – P10: Keselowski was fast in practice and has top 10 potential.
- AJ Allmendinger ($6,100) – P13: Dinger was fast in practice on Friday and is coming in riding high from clinching the Xfinity Series regular season championship.
- Chris Buescher ($6,600) – P20: Buescher starts P20 but put up top 10 single lap speed and top 15 10 lap average. I view Buescher as a top 15 car with top 10 upside.
- Justin Haley ($6,000) – P19
- Corey Lajoie ($5,400) – P31
- JJ Yeley ($5,100) – P36: Yeley starts dead last and there is bound to be attrition in this race. If Yeley can avoid it he could have a nice DFS day.
- Cole Custer ($5,900 – P11
Cash Core:
Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Erik Jones, and Ty Dillon will leave you $7,550 average salary for your last to spots.
Check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial! Ensure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).
There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)
