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MLBMA Daily Notes 4.30.19




PIT on Road vs RHP 2019

  • 267 PA
  • .216/.305/.347 Triple Slash
  • .652 OPS
  • .131 ISO
  • .286 wOBA
  • 74 wRC+

Applying Technical Analysis

MLBMA Custom Charts Exclusive at WINDAILYDFS.COM

Pittsburgh has been anemic on offense essentially the entire year, and enters today’s game dead last in team wOBA over the last seven games at just .257. The Bucs have only scored six or more runs four times this entire season, the last time being yesterday. Why is this important? What you’ll only get here is how we can see from our custom charts that PIT hasn’t been able to string together momentum any time they’re able to pierce above their moving average. They are 2-6, averaging only 1.75 runs in those following contests. The ask today of 5.5 is unusually high and reserved for elite offenses. Granted, the game is at Arlington, which is always conducive to runs and is currently ninth in park factor, but in my opinion that’s not enough to project a six spot for the scuffling Bucs.

Opposing Pitcher(s): Adrian Sampson

  • Sampson has a 4.50 ERA entering today, and I won’t sugarcoat it; There’s not a ton to love, and the Statcast data agrees. However, I would point out that seven of his 11 earned runs (64%) this year came in one outing against the A’s; A significantly better squad than PIT. He has also limited the Astros to only three earned runs in two GS over 10.1 innings pitched this year, so it’s not like Sampson is a total gas can.
  • The Rangers bullpen should probably come with a bottle of antacid, but the hope is that their L7 3.96 FIP, which is a full point below their actual ERA is telling of a pen with some light at the end of the tunnel.

PIT TT UNDER 5.5 RUNS (-130)

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018



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