Insights and Player Exposures After 75 DK Drafts

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I am halfway done with max entering the $10 Draft Kings NFL Best Ball $10M Millionaire tournament. I will pause, reflect, and look back on the last 75 drafts I have completed since early June, as well as look forward to the next 75 drafts I will complete before NFL opening day Thursday, September 7^th. One way to do that is by looking at my player exposure for players I have drafted and avoided. What players am I overweight on? Underweight? Avoided completely? What must I adjust throughout the next 75 drafts? These questions will all be addressed as I analyze my best ball portfolio. The commitment I made this summer was to mass enter 150 lineups and invest the $1,500. This would give me the best chance in taking down the $1 millionaire top prize. It was fascinating to see how much player news, even in June and July, impacted where players were getting drafted. Even reports from beat reporters on practices have caused changes in ADP. When news out of Giants camp leaked that Paris Campbell was now running with the 1s and looking good, he went from being undrafted to regularly being drafted ahead of Jalin Hyatt AND Wan’Dale Robinson. The best ball market is just like any other market. News WILL affect their prices. This will happen throughout the entire summer. The franchise tag news this week has led to Saquon AND Jacobs falling in the rankings, and Tony Pollard moving up. Now that Barkley has signed, I expect his draft position to slide back into the early to mid-second round. Before his signing, I was able to snag Barkley in the early third round. I don’t expect that to happen in any future drafts. As for Jacobs, he has slid to the late third, early fourth round. When and if he will report will have a direct impact on his ADP. 

TOP 5 Players Owned at Each Position:

The percentage I expect to have of the Justin Jeffersons and Christian McCaffreys of the world will be 8.33%. This is figured out by dividing 12 by 1. Simple arithmetic. I have yet to see Jefferson NOT be picked in the first 3 picks and have yet to see CMC fall past pick 7. So just because I am 29% on Tyquan Thornton does NOT mean I like him 3x better than Jefferson. What this does mean is that in the later rounds of the draft I am targeting and drafting Thornton at an above average rate. The picks in the middle and later rounds are a lot more volatile and are often dictated by your positional draft capital and your player takes. If I go heavy WR and draft 6 early on, my later-round picks will consist of sleeper RBs, TEs, and QBs. In the PPR scoring system of Draft Kings, I like to be heavy on WR, in either quantity or quality. So, let’s dive in!

QB: Geno Smith – 24%, Mac Jones – 20%, Daniel Jones – 15%, Kyle Pickett – 13%, Sam Howell – 13%.

How I allocate capital to the QB position largely depends on who my QB1 is. If my QB1 is elite, like Mahomes, Hurts, or Allen, I am always drafting only 2. If my QB1 is Geno Smith or Daniel Jones, I am almost always drafting 3. There are 2 builds in my portfolio where I have drafted 4 QBs. In those drafts, I was presented with the unique opportunity of stacking all 4 QBs with their pass catchers. Those draft rooms were sleeping on QBs, big time. So, I capitalized. Now, for my player exposure. If you had told me last year, I had 24% on Geno Smith, you might have said, “Isn’t that castoff in a camp battle with Drew Lock?” But the last year has been kind to Geno. Blessed with a rich contract extension and the Seahawks spending a 1^st round pick on WR and a 2^nd round pick on an RB with elite pass-catching skills, he has ample weapons at his disposal. The Seahawks are the FIRST team in nearly EVERY fantasy draft to have 3 WRs selected. Based on his ADP, I am very happy over-drafting Geno this year. I have drafted a ton of Mac Jones as my QB3. He presents a unique opportunity where most of his pass catchers are drafted in the later rounds. So, by pairing him late with 1 or 2 pass catchers, I can capitalize on his spike weeks a few times this season. Daniel Jones at 15% also presents a great opportunity where ALL his WRs are drafted late. And if I select Darren Waller as my TE1, I am always looking to pair him with Jones. Jones also does not necessarily have to be stacked with a lot of pass catchers, as he showed last year to be a great mobile, running QB. Kyle Pickett and Sam Howell, I am drafting at an above-average rate, simply because I like their upside. I’d rather take the upside on a young QB as my QB2/3, than a veteran such as Matthew Stafford, who has no rushing ability and almost definitely will not have a breakout season.

RB: Chubba Hubbard – 28%, Jaylin Warren – 21%, Antonio Gibson – 20%, Trayveon Williams – 19%, Carter/Abanikanda – 15-18%

Earlier on in the summer, sometimes the backup RB situation is unclear. And in some teams, it is very clear. Late-round RB ADP will be affected more than any other position as the summer progresses. Camp battles, beat reports, and preseason playing time will not be known until August. Although Frank Reich has said that they view Miles Sanders as a three-down back, Miles Sanders’ past does not agree. Frankly, he is not a good receiving back. He hasn’t been his entire career. So just because a coach says it, does not mean it is true. Learn how to separate the signal from the noise. I expect the Panthers to utilize both RBs early in the season as they look to ease rookie QB Bryce Young into action. Hubbard has been a more than capable backup throughout his career, and he can be selected very easily in the much later rounds. I am at about 21% on Jaylin Warren, and this is my clear bet against Najee Harris. By all rushing metrics Najee Harris grades very poorly. The best thing I can say about Najee is that he gets the touches. Historically, Pittsburgh does like to lean on one Running Back, and they normally don’t deploy a committee backfield. However, towards the last half of last season, Warren’s snaps and touches increased, as his production warranted more touches. Warren is clearly the RB2, and early camp reports have been very positive. I have drafted Gibson as my RB3 on many teams this summer. His pass-catching chomps are notable, being a WR in college, which helps in PPR scoring. I feel as if Gibson is the 2^nd best playmaker the Commanders have, and OC Beiniemy will find creative ways to get the ball in his hands. He is a big play waiting to happen. Some more late-round RB dart throws earlier this summer were mainly on the Jets and Cincy backfields. I have cooled off late in drafting both backups as both Mixon and Breece Hall have had positive reports. Mixon took a substantial pay cut and is returning to Cincinnati and Breece Hall recently hit 23 mph on the sidelines at Jets camp. The New England Patriots have also recently emerged as betting favorites to land Dalvin Cook, so if Breece were to miss games or be eased back on, I would love my early summer exposure to the Jets’ backup RBs. Early reports in camp are that Michael Carter is the RB2, so I will be drafting him ahead of the rookie moving forward. Other RB news has been Josh Jacobs not signing the franchise tag and flying out of Las Vegas. Not only will he not be at practice when training camp begins, he might not be in the state of Nevada. In lieu of this, I have moved Zamir White up draft boards and started taking him in the later rounds.

WR: Tyquan Thornton – 29%, Mike Williams – 25%, Rashod Bateman – 24%, Darius Slayton – 23%, Jakobi Myers, Christian Kirk, Tyler Lockett – 20%

I feel much better about my Thornton exposure after the Titans’ Hopkins signing. He can easily be the WR1 on the Patriots by the end of the season and both he and Mac Jones are basically free at the end of drafts. I expect the Chargers’ passing attack to have positive TD regression and improvement across the board with their new OC Kellen Moore. As long as Big Mike can stay healthy, he can have a career season. The reports of Rashod Bateman getting a cortisone shot have led many drafters to just skip over his name. I, for one, have not been one of them. A cortisone shot is not surgery, not a setback, it’s really a pain management technique. Lamar has publicly said Bateman is their WR1, and I agree. Once again, learn how to separate the signal from the noise. Although the Giants used a plethora of WRs early last season, if you look at the snap counts and targets of the last few regular season games and their playoff games, you will see that Isiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton rarely left the field. Slayton is relatively free at the end of drafts, and I love his spike week potential. I think Jakobi Myers fits Jimmy G’s profile, in that he can get open underneath very easily. I have drafted Jakobi happily as my WR5 in many drafts. Kirk and Lockett are two early to mid WRs that I love to be overweight on this year. Ridley has not played football in a year and a half, and I am a little skeptical about how fast he can get up to speed. Kirk on the other hand was blessed with the big contract and has already shown excellent rapport with Edie Falco’s look-alike Trevor Lawrence. If you want to know why I am high on Lockett just read the QB situation on Geno Smith, and I can also add the Seahawks play the Rams and Cardinals TWICE this season. I expect both those teams to have bottom 5 dumpster fire defenses. 

TE: Dawson Knox – 24%, Trey McBride – 21%, Hunter Henry – 20%, Daniel Njoku – 19%, Gerald Everett and Tylor Higbee – 17%

There have been a few drafts where I was able to draft two elite TEs and just stopped at 2. But for the most part, on almost every other team drafted I have selected 3 TE. There are also quite a few drafts where I have selected 4. This is mainly for two reasons. One, TEs get injured more often than WRs. You would too if you had to block 300-pound defensive linemen that can run a 5.04 40. So, when it gets to round 19 or 20, I am more prone to drafting Hunter Henry, Trey McBride, or Noah Fant as my TE3/4, than I am a 9^th WR. On teams where I miss out on elite TE, I try to make up for that by drafting two mid TEs. Mid TEs that fit in this category are Knox, Higbee, and Everett. I have seen Knox fall in the rankings and in drafts. I believe this is due to the Bills’ first-round selection of Dalton Kincaid. However, I do not see Kincaid replacing Knox as their starting TE. I believe they will deploy Kincaid more often in the slot and leave Knox on the field for the same number of snaps as last season. Knox’s ADP is 44 lower than Greg Dulcich’s!  When comparing these two, Knox’s average fantasy points per game last season is 9.3, Dulcich’s is 8.6. Not to pick on Greg Dulcich, but the disparity between the two is not as large as the ADP suggests. As for Daniel Njoku, I think he is undervalued and will pay off his ADP.

Players I have very little exposure to:

QB – Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes– 4%

I love Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. I do not love 2^nd round Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. When comparing last season’s drafts to this season, elite QBs have moved up an entire round. The scoring system has not changed, and the players’ projections have not changed. Therefore, I am not willing to spend the higher price on the elite QBs. I do have slightly higher exposure to Jalen Hurts because I am able to pair him more easily with a 2^nd/3^rd round Devonta Smith. I will look to slightly increase my exposure on both of these elite QBs and look to stack them with their later-round pass catchers. It is often difficult to pair them with Stefon Diggs or Travis Kelce.

RB – Najee Harris and Joe Mixon – 3%

I would much rather select Jaylen Warren in round 12 than Najee Harris in round 3 or 4. I don’t believe in Najee’s talent enough to warrant spending an early draft pick for his services. I mainly avoided Joe Mixon earlier this summer. He was a cut candidate as well as a suspension candidate. Although it became clear that he will not be cut, after agreeing to a pay cut, a suspension does loom. However, I feel a lot more comfortable now drafting Mixon in the early rounds. I have moved him up my rankings and I will be selecting him at a much higher frequency.

WR – Kadarius Toney and Michael Thomas – 2%

As I write this sentence Kadarius has already gotten injured. I wish I was joking. My exposure will remain low on this mercurial talent who just cannot stay healthy. I am over the moon I am only at 2% as he was being selected amongst some stellar WRs. Michael Thomas also carries significant injury risk and I have only selected him when he falls in the draft or drafts where I have gone RB-heavy and need WR help.

TE – Travis Kelce and Dalton Schultz – 3%

I was surprised to see I am only at 3% for Kelce. This is something I must correct moving forward. He regularly goes in the middle of the first round, and I must click his name more regularly. I need to be much higher than 3% after completing 150 drafts. As for Dalton Schultz, although rookie QBs generally lean on their TEs, I find myself drafting other TEs around his ADP. I feel more confident in other teams’ offenses and will remain underweight on Schultz.

Players I have avoided:

QB – Dak Prescott – 1%

Of all the elite WRs, I have the least confidence in CeeDee Lamb. You have to spend a late 1^st or an early 2^nd round pick for his services, and quite frankly I like him the least of all players being drafted around him. Therefore, my exposure to Dak is very low. I generally look to pair either or both my WR1 and WR2 with their QB. My low confidence in Lamb has correlated with my low Dak exposure.

RB – James Conner and Alvin Kamara – 1%

I want nothing to do with the Cardinals this year. They are going to be a disaster. They will be playing from behind in most games, so I don’t see how Conner is going to pay off his ADP. Due to the recent news of Kendre Miller landing on the PUP list AND Kamara’s charges being downgraded to a misdemeanor, this is something I would like to correct in my next 75 drafts. I need to catch up a little bit on my Kamara exposure. He might be ceding goal line touches to Jamal Williams, but his receiving skills have always been elite for a RB.

WR – Marquise Brown and Adam Thielen – 1%

Brown gets drafted around other WRs who I like more. It’s as simple as that. Kyler Murray might play 0 games this year. I am not rolling the dice on Colt McCoy; I will draft other WRs thank you very much. Thielen ranked almost dead last in separation skills last year as a WR. Although he still has a nose for the red zone, his skills are deteriorating fast. When the Panthers signed him to that 3-year contract, I am sure I was not the only one scratching my head. The Panthers WR room is filled with much younger and faster options.

TE – Sam LaPorta, Luke Musgrave and Max Mayer – 1%

Rookie TEs generally have a hard time adjusting to the speed and power of the NFL. They not only have to block NFL-grade defensive linemen but they are often covered by safeties and LBs that are just as fast, if not faster than them. The only rookie TE I am drafting with confidence this year is Dalton Kincaid. Although I think all three TEs have the potential to have good careers, I am not taking a chance in their rookie seasons.

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