Oh man, F1 DFS can get bonkers as shown by last week’s USGP, where the finishing order was changed 4 hours after the race. Wild. This week I think we see something similar, but in reverse as the Red Bull 1…err the Formula 1 season continues to Mexico City this afternoon.
On the highest elevation track of the season, straight-line speed and tire choice are going to impact this race more than usual, especially after a qualifying session featuring both Alfa Romeo’s?! Yea let’s break this down, in this edition of Formula One Race Week: Mexico Gran Prix
Team Breakdowns
Red Bull
There’s only one place to start with the Mexican Grand Prix, and no it’s not inevitable race winner Max V, ($16,200) starting from 3rd. It’s Sergio Perez ($9800) the last of the Meehecans. Sergio’s strong “Montequilla” vibes make the pride of his countrymen as everywhere he turns his fellow countrymen cheer in unison. While he’s no legend of Mexico like Butters (I promise this will be the last South Park reference in this article) he and fellow Red Bull pilot Max Ver-Thanos should rocket to the top spots and cruise to a Red Bull ($14,600) double podium finish.
McLaren
McLaren lives for hard tires. Like seriously that car loves the hards. In FP2 the McLaren was flying around as the second-best constructor as it usually does. It was Saturday and the qualifying session caught them out. The soft tire was the preferred qualifying tire in the thin air of Mexico, for the McLaren, that’s never going to be the tire they perform well on. And to form Oscar Piastri ($8400) struggled with tire setup, putting him in P6 to start, and his teammate had all sorts of issues putting him down in P19. Lando Norris ($9200) will be able to make up places, but I don’t think he makes value to pay off his price tag.
Mercedes
Mercedes falls into the same boat as the McLaren, where they qualified is where they will probably race. As a Mercedes fan, I hope they go off the beaten path, but as a GPP player, I hope they stay where they are. Lewis Hamilton ($9400) has a slight advantage over George Russell ($8600) if playing multiple lineups have exposure to both, neither are priorities in cash games.
Aston Martin
(Aston looks like they are ready to go to Mexico for that upcoming Gran Prix as they have shown no fight this weekend. Play at your own risk.)
That was last week’s sentence on Aston. There’s no need to change it this week. Aston has gone backward as the season progressed. I hope they sell to Mario Andretti or someone else who deserves a chance in F1.
Ferrari
Again, Welcome back to the front of the grid, Ferrari! They look like they are having fun in Mexico this weekend, but I’m not convinced we saw the race capabilities of this car. Sure Charles Leclerc ($8200) pilots his red Ferrari from the pole in today’s Gran Prix, with Carols Sainz ($7600) in p2. However, throughout the weekend the Ferrari ($8100) was on par with the Mercedes, tier 3 behind the Red Bull and McLaren. Ferrari-powered cards have always had excellent straight-line speed and the overt-aggressive tire ware sets up nicely for one-lap shootouts like qualifying, not so much for races. I’m expecting Ferrari to fall back a few places, and they will be where I take my stand this weekend. Play at your own risk, IMO.
Alfa Romeo
Valterri Bottas’ ($4000) driving style works very well here as being patient and waiting for the car to respond to the track vs pushing the car fighting the track tends to lead to massive oversteer at this circuit (ask Fernando Alonso about that). Zhou ($3200) will be popular as a value play, and if the field goes that way they put themselves at risk to negative DK points.
Alpine
A better racecar than a qualifying car, the Alpine’s are set to take advantage of the over-qualified cars, or at least one of them is. Pierre Gasly ($6000) is typically my preferred Alpine and this race is no different.
Williams
Williams has had a weird weekend, they have pace but were struggling with setup on Friday. In qualifying that issue appeared again as Albon ($5600) qualified in P14. The Williams has strong straight-line speed and does not overcook their tires. If Teams fall back, I’d expect Albon to take advantage. Logan is playable as he’s dead last and the cheapest, and congrats to him for scoring his first F1 point in Austin.
Alpha Tauri
Danny Ricciardo ($4000) will be popular this weekend as he starts in P4 and he has been atop the time sheets all weekend. But alas, I do not trust it. the theme of this F1 DFS breakdown has been the overqualified cars, and Danny Ric is the epitome of that. On a single lap, solid, top-5 pace. Over the course of a race, so hard to say. I don’t think he falls back aggressively, he’s a shoo-in to beat his teammate, so have exposure, but I think he will be over-owned, and going elsewhere would be a fine decision in GPPs.
Haas
See Alfa Romeo driver notes.
As always if you have any questions get at me in discord @tcuz86
