It’s shaping up to be a battle of straight-line speed, Bellagio fountains, escort flyers oh, and Ferraris! At the Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix tonight at 1 AM EST. With the inaugural event starting with a bang, we get back to racing for the penultimate race of the season. F1 hasn’t been back to the city of Sin since 81’ but it’s sure to be a race of high drama and gut-punch losses. Let’s see how the dice tumble as we break down this week’s Formula 1: Race Week, Viva Las Vegas!
Team Breakdowns
Red Bull
It’s not shaping up to be a Red Bull domination this weekend. Sure, Max Verstappen ($16,600) is probably going to win from P2 but with his exorbitant price tag, he certainly makes diversified lineups tough to get to, especially with Red Bull ($14,200) in the constructor spot.
Red Bull goofed up with Sergio Perez ($9000) starting in P11 by bringing him into the pits late in Q2. In crunchtime, Sergio’s side of the garage makes some questionable decisions. A sprinkle of Sergio should do fine this weekend in GPPs.
McLaren
The Mclaren came into this race expecting to struggle with their high downforce-loving car and this Las Vegas circuit being all about top speed and no downforce. But to have both Oscar Piastri ($7800), P18, and Lando Norris ($10000) out in Q1 is a black eye for McLaren. Easy for us to avoid them.
Mercedes
Mercedes looks like they want to be done with this season, or at least Lewis Hamilton ($9400) looks that way as he has been outfoxed on the circuit by teammate George Russell ($8400). Unfortunately for them both the Mercedes ($9100) doesn’t have much top speed but are good on tyre management so they should finish in the top 10.
Aston Martin
Aston Martin showed some serious pace in Brazil, which I was not expecting. Horses for courses and that course was for them. This course though, Fernando Alonso ($6600) is wheeling his car around pretty well. Starting from P9, in good form, a top 10 finisher for sure. Lance Stroll does not look like much of a priority play this weekend.
Ferrari
With low downforce and top speed, the Tifosi might get this one confused with Monza where just like Vegas you have two Ferraris starting in the top 3. Oh err, Carlos Sainz ($8000) starting from P12 as he has to take a grid penalty for the dumb manhole cover that caused the worst FP1 session in recent history, and Ferrari needing to use new parts. He has the car to put him in the top 10 so definitely a play I am strongly interested in, especially at captain.
Teammate Charles Leclerc ($8600) starts from pole and should finish on a podium spot. It’s a new track so let’s see. Stack Ferrari ($8500) and Carlos together because if he finishes in the top 10 or higher he adds an extra 5 points to Ferrari Draftking points
Alfa Romeo
Valtteri Bottas ($4400) starts P18 and just like his teammate Zhou ($3400) is 50/50 to beat each other. Alfa showed no pace today and have been falling back all season, at this point in the season, they might be the slowest team on the grid.
Alpine
Piere Gasly ($6200) qualified in P4, should beat his teammate, finish in the top 10, and pay off his salary. Pierre has been in good form too lately. Should be a strong play. Teammate Esteban Ocon ($4800) is definitely worthy of a sprinkle.
Williams
If the Horses for Courses comment is the theme of the weekend, then Williams should be a horn bet on the craps table, hits rarely but when it does it pays off. See a horn, bet a horn, and I’ll bet on Williams this weekend. Logan Sargent ($3200), Alex Albon ($5800), and Willaims ($3100) are in play.
Alpha Tauri
An Alpha Tauri ($3400) has finished in the top 10 in the last 3 races and was just outside the points at similar to Vegas tracks, Singapore and Monza. Definitely have some in your lineups and should be a strong leverage play as the field will probably overlook them. Yuki Tsunoda ($4000) captain sounds intriguing. Alpha Tauri is in fantastic form. Daniel Ricciardo ($5400) is closer to that top 10 thank Yuki, but I like Yuki’s upside and cost more.
Haas
Kevin Magnussen ($3000) has held his top 10 starting positions better than teammate Niko Hulkenberg ($3600) has but neither has impressed over the past 3 races and have not done noticeably well at Monza and Singapore. Tyre management might be in their favor, but race strategy is not. A proper Ferrari Jr team.
Advice
Expect some red flags and safety cars here. Slightly narrow straights, concrete barriers, and freshly laid tarmac there will be issues. Obviously, you’ll never be able to predict where and when but keep it in mind when making your lineups. If you are going to commit to a few plays, hedge with their teammate in a few lineups too.
I will have some further notes in the Discord so join me @tcuz86 and the WinDaily squad at windailysports.com
