Team Breakdowns
Red Bull
Not much to say. The class of the field could be expected to win every race this year. 38.3 dk points over the last 3 for Max ($15,400) with teammate Sergio Perez ($10,200) scoring 18.5 dk points over his last 3.
Red Bull ($14,100) has averaged 56 dk points over the last 3 races and has been the highest-scoring “player” in F1 DFS.
McLaren
After taking advantage of the previous 3 races heading into Zandervoot, Mclaren came down from their newfound perch. Lando Norris ($9400) has averaged 15 dk points during the last 3 races. In Zandervoot he stayed out too long on slicks as the weather forced his competitors to pit. Lando should have taken advantage, but he did not which cost him valuable dk points. Lando starts his Italian GP in P9 not looking like a top priority this weekend. Teammate Oscar Piastri has scored 9 dk over his last 3. Piastri really needs to beat his teammate to make value, a feat he has accomplished just 3 times all season.
McLaren has averaged 18.6 dk points over the last 3.
Mercedes
Being limited overall Mercedes leaves some to be desired, but not as bad as the rest of the pack not named Red Bull. While this season will most likely not get a race win, George Russell ($8200) has scored 6.3 DKFP over the last 3. If Ferrari were to fall apart, I would expect George to take advantage of P4. Teammate Lewis Hamilton ($9800) has scored 18 DKFP over his last 3 and starts P8.
Mercedes has averaged 29.6 dk points over the last 3 races, but I’d be very wary here in Italy
Aston Martin
As noted Aston took to the Zandervoot circuit very well. It suits their car with medium corners and not a lot of straights. I hope Aston fans enjoyed it because the Italian circuit won’t do their car any favors. With a lot of long straights and the draggy nature of the Aston Martin, it’s tough to see Aston perform well here. Fernando Alonso ($8600) has scored 18.3 dk points over his last 3, he qualified 10th while teammate Lance Stroll ($5000) has scored just 2.7 dk points.
Aston has scored 17.3 dk points over the last 3 races.
Ferrari
Ferrari is teaching Haas how to build race cars, as their characteristics are very similar to Haas. Ferrari is fantastic in a single lap, but they have poor race pace and are run by arguably the worst race strategist on the grid. With the team openly talking about improvements to this year’s car for next year’s race season this might be Ferrari’s best chance for a race win.
Charles Leclerc ($7400) has demonstrated his ability to maintain his race pace, netting him 9.3 dk points over the last 3. Meanwhile, teammate Carlos Sainz ($7000) has scored 9 dk points over his last 3. It is the Italian GP so I’m sure Ferrari is going to pull out all the stops to win this race. Carlos has been the best driver in each practice session as well.
Ferrari has averaged 14 dk points over the last 3 races but since it’s their home Grand Prix, I will give them more of a chance to perform well, with full knowledge that nothing guarantees them getting out of their own way.
Alfa Romeo
The inconsistency of Alfa continues to plague their 2023 season. Valtteri Bottas ($4800) has scored an average of 6 dk points per race in the last 3, compared to Zhou’s ($3200) -3 DKFP. Valterri has only scored points twice this season at his price which is not much value.
Alfa Romeo has averaged 1.3 dk points over the last 3 races.
Alpine
Take a seat, Alfa Romeo, it’s time for the kings of inconsistency this season to take center stage. It’s pure feast or famine from Alpine with podium finishes in Monaco, tagged along with double DNFs in Azerbaijan. They are now 6th in average performance, ahead of Haas and behind McLaren. With no leadership to steer out of these choppy waters, trusting Alpine to be featured in our DK lines is ill-advised.
Pierre Gasly ($5600) has averaged 0 dk points heading into the Dutch GP and in true Alpine form, he finished 3rd! This team is pure volatility as Pierre starts the Italian GP 17th. Teammate Esteban Ocon ($5400) has produced an average of 6.7dk points over his last 3 races.
Alpine has averaged 9.7 dk points over the last 3 races.
Williams
It’s always fun when Williams is in the mix and they have come to play this season. They won’t be winning any races, but what has happened has been an understanding of the car by the team which has resulted in okay finishes sometimes within the final point-paying positions. With Logan Sargent ($3000) *eagle scream!* scoring a whopping -1 dk points, you really need him to start in P20. In Italy he starts 15th, basically guaranteeing negative points. Albon ($6200) has averaged 7.6 dk points over his last 3 which was okay for value when he was $4200. Now we need him to finish in the top 10. Last week the team made some truly questionable wet condition calls, however, his pace over the last few races should keep him in the top 10.
Williams ($3500) has averaged 2.7 DK points over the last 3 races.
Alpha Tauri
Yuki Tsunoda ($4200) After some early contact with George Russell, Yuki could not hold onto his top 10 position nor beat his teammate in Zandervoot. Yuki was assessed a 5-second penalty which dropped most of his dk points. He ended up scoring 1 DKFP and not making value. Yuki is volatile, averaging 3 DKFP over his last 3.
Daniel Ricciardo has averaged 4.5 dk points since replacing dumpster fire Nyck deVries.
*Liam Lawson qualified 12th right behind his teammate and could easily beat him depending on how things go* Neither is a priority and neither should be in more than half your gpp lineups. With Alphatauri being very volatile it’s hard to trust either driver.
AlphaTauri has averaged 1.3 dk points over the last 3 races.
Advice:
Drivers: If things are straightforward, it’s Max or Carlos for a win after that Liam Lawson is the new value-saving option.
Teams to be light on:
Haas, Alfa, and Alpine These teams can have a wide range of outcomes so best to avoid them at all costs.
As always if you want to chop up some plays, @tcuz86 in the Discord. I appreciate you reading this edition of Formula 1: Race Week, Italian GP.
