The F1 calendar rolls along this week into Budapest and the Hungarian Gran Prix. Hungary is similar to Monaco in that it’s difficult to pass which has led to the race winner coming from the top 2 front rows over the last 7 races. The grid is wide open this week with surprise pole sitter Lewis Hamilton starting ahead of Max Verstappen and the pair of McLarens. It is clear that McLaren’s upgrades have been beneficial to them, and the race will show by how much. There are other surprises up and down the grid so let’s get some plays in the edition of Formula 1 Race Week: Hungary
Team Breakdowns
Red Bull
It’s hard to pinpoint it, but this isn’t Max Verstappen ($15000)’s best circuit, in terms of qualifying anyway. Just like last year Max starts off the pole but still has the car the rest of the field wants to drive. It is easy to expect him to get into the lead and drive away from the field.
Sergio Perez ($10,600) also seems to struggle here as 6th is his best starting position in this race twice now. The nature of this track does not bode well for overtakes so I’d expect Sergio to be a lower-owned contrarian option, but one that should not be a priority.
You need Red Bull ($13,800) to have a double podium finish which seems unlikely here. I would say, if you play Sergio expecting a podium finish, do your best to jam in Red Bull with him for the constructor spot.
McLaren
Third race in a row where McLaren has confirmed they are very much in the fight for second best. After a strong performance in Silverstone, Lando Norris ($8200) and Oscar Piastri ($6600) back up their newfound pace with a second-row lockout. I can see the value in playing both in lineups alongside the McLaren ($7500) constructor. Lando is the top choice, and if you’re paying multiple lineups, I can’t help but suggest having exposure to both Oscar and Lando.
Mercedes
As previously mentioned Lewis Hamilton ($10,000) starts on pole here, a track where he has 8 wins and now 9 poles. He now holds the most poles at a single race record for a Formula 1 driver. Converting this pole into a win is not a sure thing as it has been in the past but the 7x world champion will be gunning for his first race win in almost 2 full calendar years. His teammate George Russell ($7200) starts near the back after getting caught up in traffic during the first qualifying session…see Formula 1 drivers are just like everyone else. George has the talent and car to be further up the grid, but is this the circuit for him to showcase those skills… that’s pretty doubtful.
Aston Martin
Similar to Mercedes, Aston’s drivers are split, Lance Stroll ($6000) starts in the midfield while his teammate Fernando Alonso ($9400) entertains the masses from P7. The McLaren has overtaken the Aston in overall pace, making both Aston drivers good for GPPs.
Ferrari
I bet this is a place of nightmares for the Scuderia Ferrari ($8900) team. Last year’s Hungarian Gran Prix highlighted the clown show of Ferrari’s race strategists and this year they have not shown much to overcome the clown makeup. Charles Leclerc ($9000) and Carlos Sainz ($7800) were well within .002 seconds during qualifying so there is not much between them. Worthy of sprinkles in GPPs, neither being a true priority.
Alfa Romeo
A slight surprise to see Alfa being in Q3, and a bigger surprise to see both hold their own during qualifying as well as Free Practice 3. The Alfa tends to be the slowest car on the grid, but where its design limitations would be a hindrance, in Hungary they are an asset. Not much separates Zhou ($3000) or Valterri ($4000) so having exposure to both would be wise. Alfa ($3000) in Constructor does provide some serious value as well, one that helps jam in the top 4 starters.
Alpine
After a promising Friday for Alpine, they fell down the timing charts as the weekend progressed. Outside of being differentiation plays the Alpine has not shown much to warrant true interests.
Mercedes
Another qualifying session with Nico Hulkenberg ($3600) qualifying in the top 10. As this season has shown, however, Nico’s Haas tends to fade away during the race due to the Ferrari-powered car overcooking their tyres during the race. If Nico falls back it’s hard to see his teammate Kevin Magnussen ($3400) doing much higher with his Haas, thus making Nico a good gpp option though he comes with the aforementioned risk.
Williams
If the Alfa takes to the Hungarian circuit with ease, the Williams does the exact opposite. Known for its straight-line speed the Williams struggles in quick corners and lateral speed, both are plentiful here in Budapest. Alex Albon ($4400) should be expected to beat his teammate, but he does come at a premium for the value. Logan Sargent ($3200) continues to be a great potential value as once again he starts dead last and is just $3200. For a DFS sport where 1st and 300th are separated by less than 2 points, Logan Sargent continues to be my favorite value driver.
Alpha Tauri
Count me out of the Daniel Ricciardo ($5000) hype train, at least for this race. Danny Ric makes his return to the grid as Nyck De Vries was sacked by the junior Red Bull team. Congratulations Daniel, you get a race seat, sorry, it’s in the hardest car to drive at a track you infamously struggle with, good luck! The hype train will inflate his ownership which makes him an easy fade for me. Yuki Tsunoda ($4600) will still probably get the best out of the Alpha Tauri as he has done all season. One exciting thing though is the Alpha has added bits to the car to make it more stable and easy for Daniel…which makes me curious to know how Yuki feels about that. All in all the Alpha Tauri has been bringing up the rear of the pack this weekend and it’s tough to see where a driver change will significantly change that
Advice:
I will be heavy on Lewis Hamilton, Lando Norris, and both Alfas. My risky team to attach my lineups to will be Alpine and both drivers. Another team in the same boat will be Ferraris. If the Alfa is any indicator they might get on top of their tyres quickly and could bring the medium or hards into a good working window that other teams might struggle with. Even typing it out makes me worried about the play, but that’s GPP bro life, a life of volatility that one has to be comfortable in taking.
If there was ever a race to take a stand and let it ride, it would be this race. The Hungarian Gran Prix has a history of unexpected results, looking at you Esteban Ocon, winning from 6th a few years ago. Therefore having a stand and going all in on one race driver, or race strategy could bink you a tournament this weekend. Featuring the McLaren and Alfa will be a popular move, which makes me curious to see what the field does with Max and Red Bull. Me, I’m playing different strategies in different contests. In the big tournaments, I will have a lot of Max and Red Bull, but as the contests get smaller in entries I will have less and less of the expensive Red Bull combination. I don’t mind sacrificing lineups to be different this weekend, a strategy that could solo-ship a tourney. What are your thoughts on how to attack what could be a chalky race weekend?
As always if you want to chop up some plays, @tcuz86 in the Discord. I appreciate you taking the time to read this edition of Formula 1: Race Week, Hungarian GP.
