StixPicks 
Hopefully not all of you rode the Desmond Ridder risk train with me last week, lol. We were close to having Kyle Pitts for a 70+ yard touchdown, but it is what it is. Let’s get back into things for Week 4!
As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Permanent note regarding Quarterbacks: You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. This week, some of the higher total games on the slate the field will love to target will be:
– Miami @ Buffalo (-2.5) / 53.5 Point Total
– Denver Broncos (-3) @ Chicago Bears / 47 Point Total
– Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5) 49 Point Total
– Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts (-1) / 45 Point Total
- Justin Herbert ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD) – Herbert is back in the article… what a surprise! As long as Jimmy Garoppolo plays, Justin Herbert and this Chargers’ offense should be in store for a busy, busy day against the Raiders’ atrocious secondary and a pass defense that ranks 3rd to last on this slate (DVOA). If Jimmy is OUT, I’d likely limit my exposure to Herbert to cash games only.
Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, Josh Kelley
Bring-Back Options: Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Jacobs - Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – The Bills defense is tough, but it’s hard to avoid a 3-5% owned Tua in NFL DFS GPP contests. The Dolphins are healthy on offense with the return of Jaylen Waddle and they’re number one in total offense DVOA. It’s very possible this game is much slower than the public anticipates, but if it shoots-out, you know the stackable pieces to make a game-stack that can climb the leaderboards in a hurry.
Stack Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Bring-Back Options: Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Gabe Davis - Anthony Richardson ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD) – Richardson is back after missing last week’s game with a concussion and will likely lead the slate in QB ownership (he or Josh Allen). The AETY Model is right on market with Sportsbooks and has Richardson projected for 44 rushing yards, 209 passing yards, and 1.37 passing touchdowns. The passing touchdown number is a little light for my liking but Richardson offers us a significant higher floor than most due to the rushing ability and the elite no-huddle rate at which the Colts play.
Stack Options: Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Zack Moss
Bring-Back Options: Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Kyren Williams - Russell Wilson ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) – As mentioned on the 1st and Stix Podcast, the Bears’ secondary is absolutely decimated (Eddie Jackson, Jaylon Johnson, and Josh Blackwell are OUT) and is one we will continue to attack. Russ will likely be one of the more popular quarterback plays on DraftKings but he’s the top value on the AETY Model by a wide margin and offers us a lot of salary relief to get exposure to the studs we build our lineups around.
Stack Options: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Marvin Mims Jr.
Bring-Back Options: DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, Chase Claypool - Matt Stafford ($5,700 DK / $6,600 FD) – GPP Only play, but I love this spot for Stafford and the passing game to leverage the ridiculous ownership on Kyren Williams. It should be one of the faster games on this slate as both teams rank inside the top-10 in pass attempts per game and top-15 in play clock remaining per play… In addition, the Colts will likely be without their best pass-rusher, DeForest Buckner.
Stack Options: Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Kyren Williams
Bring-Back Options: Michael Pittman Jr., Zack Moss, Josh Downs
Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott
NFL DFS Running Backs
Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. Over the past few years, I’ve been prioritizing running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.
- Tony Pollard ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD)
- James Cook ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – James Cook is going to come into this matchup around 5% ownership and offers us all a way to get significantly different in our GPP builds, in a game the public is going to want to stack. This is a leverage play off of all of that chalk in the low $6K range on DraftKings (Zack Moss, Kyren Williams, Alexander Mattison, Swift, etc.) and a plus-matchup against the Dolphins’ 26th ranked run defense (DVOA). I prefer the NFL DFS GPP pivot on DraftKings due to the pass-catching upside and unfortunate lack of goal-line work.
- Kyren Williams ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD) – Play him in cash! 25% or greater ownership projection. Feel free to lock him in your GPP lineups as well if you love the situation, but he’ll be a fade for me in GPP builds and locked in cash.
- Javonte Williams ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD) – Gamescript killed us last week so it is yet again, Javonte Williams SZN (for all you SZN boys and girls out there). The price is absurd on both outlets and so will the ownership. Lock him in your cash game lineups and use the salary relief in GPPs if you need it.
- Zack Moss ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – The usage for Zack Moss has been incredible and getting the dual-threat, Anthony Richardson back in the lineup should free up the running lanes for Mr. Moss against the Rams’ 29th ranked run defense (DVOA). Like Kyren Williams, Zack Moss just doesn’t leave the field and that’s tough to pass up in NFL DFS lineups. I’ll likely ride Anthony Richardson in cash games and pivot to Zack Moss in GPP builds.
Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Alexander Mattison, D’Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Roschon Johnson
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, the WR pool is LOADED.
- Tyreek Hill ($9,200 DK / $9,600 FD) – What do you need me to say about Tyreek Hill? This guy is putting on an absolute clinic thus far as he enters this matchup (with no Jordan Poyer for the Bills) 4th in First Reads, 1st in Targets per Routes Ran, and 1st in Air Yards. This dude is a magician in any matchup, especially when it’s a projected higher scoring, back-and-forth battle.
- Keenan Allen ($7,900 DK / $9,500 FD) – Keenan Allen HAS taken over the CeeDee Lamb route tree that Kellen Moore used in Dallas. This dude is a premium play at the wide receiver position every single week as mentioned in last Sunday’s article. He’s going to be one of the highest owned wideouts on the slate and makes for a perfect cash game wide receiver and GPP viable, if Garoppolo goes.
Josh Palmer ($4,000 DK / $6,100 FD) is also an extreme value of the week and likely a staple for most of my lineups on DraftKings. - Ja’Maar Chase ($7,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – The only downside here is the low total (41 points) and extremely slow pace. Other than that, this is the nut matchup for WR1s against the Titans’ secondary we discuss every week. As long as you trust Joe Burrow’s health, this is a lock and load situation for Ja’Maar Chase and the rest of this Bengals’ receiving core.
- Puka Nacua ($6,700 DK) / ($7,500 FD) – Still way too cheap for someone with this type of target share in a fantastic matchup against the Colts’ secondary and a nice gamescript pivot around Kyren Williams chalk.
- Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – 5% owned against a struggling, limited-talent defense. Pittman is Top-10 in 1st Read Leaders and Top-15 in Targets Per Routes Ran… If this game turns into a bit of a track meet, we may have a slate breaker on our hands.
- Courtland Sutton ($5,300 DK / $7,100 FD) – As mentioned in the Wilson writeup, the Bears’ secondary is pure trash and this should be a coming out party for both Jerry Jeudy ($6,600 DK / $6,600 FD) and Courtland Sutton against the 31st ranked pass defense (DVOA) that plays a lot of Cover-2 (advantage Sutton) and Cover-3 (advantage Jeudy).
- Adam Thielen ($4,500 DK ONLY) – Pure ownership play in cash games. I have literally zero interest in the “revenge” narrative for Adam Thielen in GPP lineups, but if 35% or more of the field is going to play him in cash, I’ll ride the train.
- Calvin Austin ($3,300 DK / $5,000 FD) – If you need a punt-play, the AETY Model seems to love this spot against a banged up Houston Texans’ secondary. Over the past two-weeks, Calvin Austin is clocking inside the top 15% of the league in Air-Yards. It’s a bit of a silly metric, but he’s starting to become a key contributor to the Steelers’ offense (for whatever that is worth).
Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams (if Jimmy is IN), Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman Jr., Gabe Davis, Jakobi Meyers, DJ Chark Jr, Kendrick Bourne, Quentin Johnston
Tight-Ends
- George Kittle ($5,100 DK / $6,300 FD) – Criminally low priced in a great matchup against a team that continues to struggle covering the tight-end. If Deebo and/or Aiyuk are limited in any fashion, Kittle should be a staple for 5 catches and 55+ receiving yards.
- Jake Ferguson ($3,500 DK / $5,100 FD) – If we’re not paying up for Kittle, Andrews, or Hockenson, we might as well punt down to a tight-end with significant red-zone upside. The Patriots will do their best to scheme away CeeDee Lamb and that should open up the middle of the field for Ferguson. It’s not a preferred play by any means, but this is what we get when we punt tight-end.
- Pat Freiermuth ($3,400 DK / $5,500 FD) – On DraftKings, Freiermuth is going to be the highest owned tight-end by a wide margin. I’ll 100% fade in GPP builds but lock him into your DraftKings cash lineups. On Fanduel, find the extra $800 for Kittle.
- Logan Thomas ($3,100 DK / $5,000 FD) – In a negative gamescript, I’ll roll the dice on the returning big-bodied pass-catcher for the Washington Commanders. It’s a very light sample size, but the Eagles grade 32nd in DVOA against opposing tight-ends.
Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Zach Ertz
The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)
- Kyren Williams
- Javonte Williams
- Ja’Maar Chase
- Pat Freiermuth
- Josh Palmer
NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- James Cook
- Tyreek Hill
- Josh Palmer
Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.
